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Thread: #11: Effective Wolf Hunting (by Klopp)

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    Ruler of the Universe Thingyman's Avatar
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    #11: Effective Wolf Hunting (by Klopp)

    Article #11: Effective Wolf Hunting
    - written by Klopp

    Mafia has always been a game of discussion. How else are you going to catch the bad guys, right? You need to first talk some, then compare the player's game to his previous ones (the so-called meta) and voila! You've got your wolf on a silver platter. But is it always that easy? What if you're playing someone for the first time? Is discussion alone going to be enough to effectively hunt down all the wolves? I will do my best to answers these and other questions in this article.

    First we're going to touch on fundamentals - getting to know your opponent and making your reads logical and therefore more solid. Then we're going to discuss more advanced ideas of wolf hunting so no matter if you're a complete newbie or a very strong, experienced player you should still be able to find this article somewhat interesting and instructive.

    THE BASICS:

    Level of the game, assessment of players' potential
    When playing mafia, you are going to encounter a wide spectrum of players. A quick assessment of their current level and potential is vital to making an effective read on them.

    First thing to know is that you can't assess everyone in the same way. So how to evaluate the potential of a player you haven't played before? Best way is to observe their in-thread charisma. If I see a cunning, clever player with a cutting sense of humour, I'm going to be more careful when making a read on that person. And that's what you should always do before going any further because knowing who you're up against is key to making correct decisions later. I divided players you might encounter in mafia into three categories for simplification:

    Level 1: Rookie player, doesn't grasp the concept of vanilla setups, relies heavily on power roles.
    This kind of player is fairly easy to read because it basically all comes down to volume and spotting healthy aggression. If a player of this caliber is giving polarizing reads and is voting people (even for what might seem like silly reasons!) with confidence, he is in almost all cases a villager! It doesn't matter if his reads are right or wrong (they are most probably wrong as he doesn't have the experience and knowledge to attack players for the right reasons so for him it usually comes down to luck).

    A rookie mafia player will in most cases assume the role of a quiet, reasonable individual with very toned-down reads and pushes. You can often spot a wolf player like him when he's constantly making double-edged sword statements like "Action X might indicate player Y is a wolf but on the other hand it might also mean he's a misguided villager".
    Look for players who shy away from taking strong stances in discussion and always remember there is a much higher chance of high volume players being villagers, especially at this level.

    Level 2: Solid player, played some vanilla games, knows the basics of wolf hunting
    This player has to be evaluated based on couple of factors. In my opinion, you still shouldn't focus on the accuracy of his reads. What's more important is the manner in which the player pushes his wolf reads. You will usually come across two types of wolves at this level:

    First one is an enhanced version of the level 1 player - a calm player avoiding responsibility. However he tries to improve his game by pushing one or two players all game because he feels the need to attack someone to look like he's actually here to wolf hunt.
    If you spot a player with a very narrow look at the game, be wary of him.

    Second one is an aggressor - wolves have difficulty faking emotions so they often use the trick of being very aggressive in their pushes, thereby focusing on one emotion. They can tunnel the hell out of a single player and level villagers into thinking that a wolf wouldn't play so recklessly.
    Although tunneling itself is NOT a wolfy trait, always be careful of players who are overly aggressive in their pushes because it might be part of a wolfy agenda.

    Small tip: If there's a player in your game who doesn't solve and doesn't care to look good, he might just be a slanking villager. Always remember wolves are much more self-aware and feel an internal pressure to do something, anything! It's much less likely for a wolf to be playing the "I don't give a damn about this game" card.

    Level 3: Elite player, played lots of games, has lots of experience
    An elite player will have great tone and will be strong at fabricating reads. What to do in a situation like this when you have no meta? Well, one answer would be find enough villagers and just keep this player in your PoE. But we're here to look for wolves! And the highest chance for strong wolves to make mistakes is:

    1. During the opening pages.
    2. During EoDs when a wolf has to push the mafia agenda and risk his position (More on these first two points in MORE ADVANCED CONCEPTS).
    3. By constantly making incorrect reads. The moment you gain the ability of finding villagers it will be easier for you to assess an elite player. If he insists on ignoring signs of towniness of players he's pushing, it should set off alarm bells. But remember, even the best players get reads wrong sometimes, especially early game. That's why it's important to stay reasonable and resist panicking to be a successful wolf hunter.

    MORE ADVANCED CONCEPTS

    Macro Reads vs Micro Reads
    Both types of reads are useful if applied correctly. Macro reading is looking at the player's overall game and judging his alignment based on that. That's probably the most popular tool in my and many other players' wolf hunting arsenal. Usually I read players villagery or wolfy after reading their ISO and making a judgment call based on tone and quality of their posts.

    There are also micro reads. The idea is that you see that player X wrote a very villagery or a very wolfy post and based on just that you guess their alignment. These reads are sometimes treated too seriously and overshadow the macro reads, which I believe, in general, they shouldn't.

    If an overall villagery looking player writes a wolfy post, does that make them a wolf? I don't believe so. VIllagers are prone to writing silly things and it happens quite often because they don't know other players' alignment. They have plenty of thoughts running through their heads and some of those thoughts are bound to be wrong, weird and/or silly. It all comes down to a question: Do villagers write wolfy posts? My answer is yes, they do. That's why I would advise thinking twice before coming to the conclusion that wolfy behaviour equals a wolf.

    However if a null-ish player writes a very villagery post, I believe there is a good reason to call that person a villager. Why? Because it's not easy for a wolf to write a truly villagery post. Actually, it's very difficult if not almost impossible. There are just some thought processes you won't be able to fabricate as a wolf. That's why micro reads come in handy when you're simply not sure about a person and one or two posts of his let you take that leap of faith and clear them.

    I have had some classic confrontations of micro-macro reads on Mafia Universe.

    In the game Sharing is Caring a player called Sorian was playing a very villagery game. However, on d1 EOD he made a wrong judgement call and was hard defending wolf!Mantichora. I had to make a decision which read to trust. In that game I trusted my macro read and was right to do so.
    Another time, in the Wildcard Game of Season 3 I was reading Beck as a villager. After he did everything he could to stop people from lynching wolf!Royal Ape on d1 EOD I again had to decide. I once again went with my macro read and sticked to thinking that Beck is a villager. That time I was wrong. Later thinking about it I came to the conclusion I underestimated Beck's potential and that had lead me to believe he wouldn't be able to pull off such a gutsy play.

    Look at the HOW, not the WHAT
    Villagers are wrong all the time. Yes, it's true. Go back to your finished games and note how many times you voted for a villager or villa read a wolf. That's why, if you ever want to be an effective wolf hunter, you have to let go of the thought that being wrong makes people wolfy. It's completely normal for villagers to be wrong. Always look at HOW something is done, not WHAT is done. If a player pushed a mislynch or did something that hurt the town, ask yourself these questions:

    1. Was there progression and did it make sense?

    If there isn't any progression, my first instinct would actually be to say the player you're suspecting is... a villager. Acting in a way that makes no sense is usually not a wolf trait. I repeat, wolves are much more self-aware than villagers, they always think about their next move and mostly try to avoid looking suspicious. These kind of plays are mainly in range of elite mafia players who are ready to play the leveling game with townies.

    Example: Player X starts attacking player Y completely out of nowhere. Best way to deal with this is to just wait and see where the player is going with his line of thought. Try not to interrupt his efforts too soon. Also don't do the defending for players you consider to be villagery before it's actually necessary. You might learn much more by just letting things unfold without your intervention.

    2. Was there a wolf motivation behind the action?

    This is vital. If there wasn't any motivation, the player is probably not a wolf. Again, wolves are self-aware. The most important objective for a wolf is to stay alive. Therefore in approximately 95% of the cases he won't do the crazy thing simply because of the fear of getting caught.

    3. Does the player's overall game look villagery and is it probable he/she is just a villager who made a mistake?

    This is important to keep in mind. Too often I see a situation where a fairly villagery player is a suspect because, lets say, he made a terribly looking play at eod. Taken out of context, it made him a wolf. But if our macro read on that player is that he's a villager, I would be inclined to defend him. Villagers do stupid things because of paranoia, doubt, wrong judgement, frustration etc. Lynching them for these mistakes without taking our macro read into account is usually a bad idea.

    Example: Early game, player X who hasn't been suspected and has had a solid position within the town block is not around during EoD. Yet in the last 20 seconds of the day phase he suddenly appears and puts down a vote that lynches a villager.

    It looks terrible at first glance but you should always ask yourself: Would a wolf do such a thing? Usually the answer is no. It's too early in the game and a play like this focuses all the attention on that player. In this situation I'm inclined to say that player's X action is "too wolfy to be wolf". Especially if he has been fairly villagery 'till that point.

    Posting Under Pressure & The Power of Reaction Tests
    This is personally my favourite and most enjoyable way of wolf hunting (though I'll admit it's not the fastest or most effective).

    After playing mafia for some time I came to the conclusion that chaos is good for the village.

    In my opinion there is nothing else wolves would like to do more the whole game than to be involved in a long, peaceful discussion with other players. This is the easiest way for them to hide simply because any competent wolf is going to be able to fabricate solid reads, answer questions and ask some good ones himself. What causes good wolves to make mistakes is pressure and emotions. There is very little emotion in a debate that lasts for 20 hours.

    I'll use my only wolf game on MU as an example of what I mean: I entered the thread a few pages in and started in a very unimpressive way. Players didn't respond well to my opening and I was suspected. 2-3 players voted me and... that was it. They didn't follow it up with anything. I was free to just post reads and interact and after some time I managed to post myself out of that bad position. I believe village made a mistake of not putting enough pressure on me. They didn't make me suffer enough for my bad opening and let me off the hook too easily. If enough pressure was applied on me, it would've probably ended my participation in that game very quickly.

    A very effective way of learning someone's alignment is placing a player in a position they weren't expecting to be in and which they were not ready for. Wolves can crumble under pressure and that mostly happens during two stages of the game, openings and EODs.

    Opening
    Wolf mindset: "I have to start strong, I need to start in a funny, witty way to get some early town reads". Usually it's just good enough to start with a default "hi". But the awareness of being a wolf tends to get to the player and force him to make some mistakes when he opens.

    Common behaviours include (with a few examples from Mafia Universe games in which I played/which I spectated):

    Giving a very early town read in a formal manner:

    theknightsofneeee aka Madame Red, Clue Mafia Game:
    Quote Originally Posted by Hestia~ (#85)
    Quote Originally Posted by Miss Lavender (#13)
    mr peacock is probably a villager for the 6 minutes that it took him to write his second post

    if he was a wolf his second post would have been pre-written

    probably
    lol

    i love this read.


    I disagree with the conclusion but I love the mindset that you were in to make this read.

    first villa read.



    also sup.
    fontisian, Sharing is Caring Game:
    Quote Originally Posted by fontisian (#322)
    Quote Originally Posted by Klopp (#230)
    I can't even be arsed to read Crunkus' entry.
    Kopp shall be my first townread for not caring how he looks. Also, because $#@! long posts about nothing.

    Huzzah.
    Being too solvey at the very beginning:
    GeneralHankerchief, Wildcard Reunion Game:
    http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/...e-is-it-Anyway

    Wolves often feel like they have to contribute and prove themselves, that's why they tend to spell out reads very early on.

    Trying hard to come across as funny and relaxed/being very helpful (and focusing your early activity exclusively on one of those things):
    Royal Ape, Wildcard Game:
    http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/...a-Championship

    NOTE: These behaviours are NOT something that only wolves do! But it's something interesting to keep your eye on, to later push the player and see if your suspicions are correct.

    EOD
    Wolf mindset: "I have to make sure my partner doesn't die / I have to make sure I bus in a convincing way / I have to make sure I don't die".

    EODs are the place to go when you have information about the flips and are trying to make sense of things. Again, never underestimate the mistakes wolves can make when under pressure. They might completely freeze, they might make a very obvious power wolf play or simply bus.

    Once, after learning the EOD had v/v wagons I decided to come back to it and look for clues. I noticed that one player was not actively taking part in the lynch. Instead he was having a side discussion about something completely unrelated with just a few minutes to the end of the day phase and tied v/v wagons. He seemed unconcerned with what was happening. This was not a villagery attitude and mindset. The wolf was content with the situation and thus made the mistake of not pretending to care.

    EODs are one of the most valuable moments of any game if you learn how to read them and know what to look for. Never underestimate them, study them closely and always look deeper into things than "he voted a villager, therefore he is a wolf".

    ---

    Opening, EOD - OK, but what about the rest of the day? During the day it's time to discuss. Discussion can be very fruitful. However, I also believe in mixing things up a little bit. Inducing some emotional reactions can be very useful as well and can generate interesting interactions. For example, I often like to put on an act in the thread and pretend I'm super sure of my reads. That's because if I'm right and hit a wolf, this will make him very frustrated and might force out some very poor reactions.

    Reaction tests are a powerful tool - even if you don't catch a wolf, you will provoke interesting, often very villagery responses from the player you were testing that will later help you read them villa.

    I'll leave you with this - try to think outside the box and never be afraid to push people's buttons. Fish for reactions whenever you feel there is a chance to do so. Because if there is a thing that's difficult to fake in a game of mafia, it's definitely emotions.

    Cliffs:
    • Know your opponent. Don't make the mistake of assuming too quickly that a player wouldn't be capable of doing something as a wolf.
    • Look at the big picture. Don't read too much into a person's specific wolfy posts if they contradict their general in-thread appearance.
    • Make sure you can see a wolf motivation behind a player's given action before wolf reading them for it.
    • Study the opening pages and EODs very carefully, that's often where the wolves show their true face.
    • Don't be afraid to mix things up and push some buttons. Wolves feel most uncomfortable in scenarios they don't expect to be in.
    Last edited by Thingyman; September 19th, 2017 at 04:41 PM.

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    Klopp Killa Panther's Avatar
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    can't wait to read this.

    stay tuned for my follow up article: "How Not to Get Vigged by Panther N1"

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    Zack's Avatar
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    Queen of MU SpankGangsta's Avatar
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    Good article bae
    I owe Takhitty ₤200 for my gambling addiction
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    Wants It More npstr's Avatar
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    Good read.

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    ♫ Face the Music ♫ Virtuoso's Avatar
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    This was fantastic! Thanks @Thingyman and @Klopp. Would I be able to share this on my other communities?
    Where words fail, music speaks

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    Haven't read the article but did see one thing of note from a quick skim.

    Reaction tests are a powerful tool - even if you don't catch a wolf, you will provoke interesting, often very villagery responses from the player you were testing that will later help you read them villa.
    Worth taking into account that if a wolf realises that you're trying to reaction test them they can tailor their response to fit. If you're intending to reaction test someone, try not to make it too obvious.

    (also lolreactiontests).

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    Million Dollar Baby Champ's Avatar
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    reaction tests are a garbage fire

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    Flip Flop Klopp Klopp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#7)
    Haven't read the article but did see one thing of note from a quick skim.

    Reaction tests are a powerful tool - even if you don't catch a wolf, you will provoke interesting, often very villagery responses from the player you were testing that will later help you read them villa.
    Worth taking into account that if a wolf realises that you're trying to reaction test them they can tailor their response to fit. If you're intending to reaction test someone, try not to make it too obvious.

    (also lolreactiontests).
    Yeah, reaction tests are tricky beasts. They can be easily misapplied and make one misread the situation. It's not easy to grasp imidiately how to do it and how to interpret it, there is a lot of trail and error involved. Still I find them to be useful especially in a situation where I get a reaction that's completely disarming and therefore ultra-villagery. Strongest wolves usually won't fall for the trap however many will play right into it.

    I see it this way - strong wolves will mostly give a good reaction but the ultra-villagery ones come almost exclusively from villagers. So I see some merit in doing it however drawing my conclusions carefully. And it's fun.

    Quote Originally Posted by Virtuoso (#6)
    This was fantastic! Thanks @Thingyman and @Klopp. Would I be able to share this on my other communities?
    Sure. Just don't forget to mention it's from Mafia Universe!
    Last edited by Klopp; September 20th, 2017 at 11:12 AM.

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    Zack's Avatar
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    In my experience, "it was a reaction test" is often what someone says when they don't want to admit they just made a bad push.

    Or it's half-meme like "you were peeked wolf" to someone who hasn't read the thread (though this one actually worked for me and outed a wolf once).

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    Thumbs Up Apoc's Avatar
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    2. Was there a wolf motivation behind the action?

    This is vital. If there wasn't any motivation, the player is probably not a wolf. Again, wolves are self-aware. The most important objective for a wolf is to stay alive. Therefore in approximately 95% of the cases he won't do the crazy thing simply because of the fear of getting caught.
    Im not finished reading yet, but i think this question is a huge trap. One I've fallen into a few times.

    Everyone loves building potential narratives that explain the entire wolf team, what they did, why they did it. Feeling like you've solved the game and uncovered the wolf teams "master plan" is awesome.

    Admitting your wolfread might still be a villager and admitting you arent 100% on any of your wolves is way less fun.

    That's why this trap is easy to fall into.


    The problem is: almost every scenario can be seen as wolf motivation. Look at your Sorian and Beck examples, the obvious wolf motivation is saving a bro at EoD. The motivation exists, now what?

    I have found a much better question is:

    "Is there a villager motivation?"

    This builds heavily on "1. Was there progression and did it make sense?", and tends to keep you (well, me at least) more open-minded. I think if you look for wolfy motivations, you'll find them (and you'll be wrong a lot).

    Look for the villager motivation, then decide whether or not you believe it.


    If there wasn't any motivation, the player is probably not a wolf.
    Coming back to this.

    "Why would a wolf do X?"
    "Why would i do X as a wolf?"
    "Why would X do Y if he was a wolf? he could just do Z instead!"

    How many times have you read these?

    The simple fact is wolves do dumb $#@! all the time for no reason whatsoever.

    They weren't paying attention
    They were leveling
    They just love bussing
    Their perception of things was wrong
    They forgot who their bros were
    They were just pushing buttons
    They were leveling!

    If no wolf motivation exists, they might still be a wolf
    Last edited by Apoc; September 20th, 2017 at 11:30 AM.

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    Thumbs Up Apoc's Avatar
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    Great read, Thanks Klopp
    Last edited by Apoc; September 20th, 2017 at 11:36 AM.

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    Flip Flop Klopp Klopp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zack (#10)
    In my experience, "it was a reaction test" is often what someone says when they don't want to admit they just made a bad push.

    Or it's half-meme like "you were peeked wolf" to someone who hasn't read the thread (though this one actually worked for me and outed a wolf once).
    Haha, yeah, I'm familiar with those. I guess the phrase "reaction test" has a bad rep because people don't understand what it is, misapply it or use it as an excuse. It's not something that can be used always, there has to be time and a place, it has to fit into the context of the situation. For me it's basically invoking an emotional response in a player, whether it's frustration or fear of getting caught. Many players completely crumble under pressure. I've seen wolves flying under the radar and winning the game for their team way too many times. There's a good chance many of them would make big, noticable mistakes if you gave them the chance.

    @Apoc I agree, hence the word "probably". Many things depend on context. And of course in no way I'm suggesting you should try to make an argument for someone being a wolf because it leads to bias, if you try really hard you could make that for any player in the game. Always keep an open mind.

    Thank you all for the feedback.
    Last edited by Klopp; September 20th, 2017 at 11:51 AM.

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    Thumbs Up Apoc's Avatar
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    Much like Klopps use of "tone" i think his use of "reaction test" refers to something different than what normal people associate with the term

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    Ruler of the Universe Thingyman's Avatar
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    My usage of "reaction test" is basically lying about something for a somewhat small amount of time to see how people react to the line of thought that I'm pursuing. Sometimes I even make sure to leave a code in advance because I fear that people won't believe I was doing it all for reactions.

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    Klopp Killa Panther's Avatar
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    a REAL reaction test: (not the kind where people go back after the fact to justify something that was a $#@!ty push, as Zack mentioned)

    http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/...=1#post1444112

    I pretended to have accidentally hit "crtl+v" where I meant to type 'v' and inserted a little fake blurb that was intended to look like a wolf chat post where I was talking about Alette being a wolf who was in decent shape based on thread consensus.

    It was a really lucrative reaction test, far and away the best among the few I've ever attempted in the past couple years - netted 4 villagers and 1 wolf - Jon Paul sticks out like a sore thumb among the other natural, villager responses. Beck played it pretty well, but in retrospect, his complete lack of paranoia is unfitting (hard for me to make a judgement at the time bc of my assumption that he just knows my game).

    Quote Originally Posted by Panther (#6447)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jon Paul (#6414)
    Wow that toatlly does.

    Panther why did you leave instructions like that? WTF is going on.
    so let's talk about this being the "one of these things is not like the other" from the top half of this page

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    Thumbs Up Apoc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panther (#16)
    a REAL reaction test: (not the kind where people go back after the fact to justify something that was a $#@!ty push, as Zack mentioned)

    http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/...=1#post1444112

    I pretended to have accidentally hit "crtl+v" where I meant to type 'v' and inserted a little fake blurb that was intended to look like a wolf chat post where I was talking about Alette being a wolf who was in decent shape based on thread consensus.

    It was a really lucrative reaction test, far and away the best among the few I've ever attempted in the past couple years - netted 4 villagers and 1 wolf - Jon Paul sticks out like a sore thumb among the other natural, villager responses. Beck played it pretty well, but in retrospect, his complete lack of paranoia is unfitting (hard for me to make a judgement at the time bc of my assumption that he just knows my game).

    Quote Originally Posted by Panther (#6447)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jon Paul (#6414)
    Wow that toatlly does.

    Panther why did you leave instructions like that? WTF is going on.
    so let's talk about this being the "one of these things is not like the other" from the top half of this page
    lmao, 2nd Rev's posts are great

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    Klopp Killa Panther's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Apoc (#17)
    lmao, 2nd Rev's posts are great
    they are. us x-posting the "ctrl+v" thing was pretty sick on his part too

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    ༼ つ ;-; ༽つ give scum rand Dp101's Avatar
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    I agree with everything in this, great read.

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    Queen Shifty Frozen Angel's Avatar
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    reaction tests are the best tools for figuring out someones motivation. True reaction testing is an analysis on the pattern of behavior another player make not to just see if someone makes an action. You have to know what do you expect the other person is going to do based on what they did so far, their personality and their assumable motivations. If you can separate different reactions based on motivations, then you are doing a pure way of scum hunting and your reads can't be wrong (But it's so damn hard thing to do)

    I would try to explain this in more details but it will be a long wall and I don't have time for it atm.
    False tears bring pain to those around you
    False smile brings pain to one's self

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    "and your reads cant be wrong"

    Considering we live in a world where peeks can be wrong

    The above statement is farcicle

  22. ISO #22
    Queen Shifty Frozen Angel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Apoc (#21)
    "and your reads cant be wrong"

    Considering we live in a world where peeks can be wrong

    The above statement is farcicle
    Ina utopia that someone can perform that truely, the reads can't be wrong. the problem with that statement which will add an error to that way of scum hunting are these 2:

    - humans are really complicated. you can't ever make a general pattern of behavior that 100% fits on someone else. in addition some people are really good at figuring other's behavioral patterns out and some suck at it.

    - the whole reaction test is based on how someone will react and whats the motivation of that person when he reacts that way. the "reaction" should be natural so your performance must be believable enough for them to not over guess the test.

    there are also other factors like "hidden motivations about stuff you have no idea about" that might effect the reaction in an un-guessable way. tldr; true reaction testing aka motivation analysis is not that simple that some people claim. It is more accurate as they claim though when it's performed 100% correctly.
    False tears bring pain to those around you
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  23. ISO #23
    >can't be performed 100% correctly
    >when it's performed 100% correctly its always right
    ????????????????????????????????????

  24. ISO #24
    Queen Shifty Frozen Angel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#23)
    >can't be performed 100% correctly
    >when it's performed 100% correctly its always right
    ????????????????????????????????????
    exactly
    False tears bring pain to those around you
    False smile brings pain to one's self

  25. ISO #25
    Flip Flop Klopp Klopp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#23)
    >can't be performed 100% correctly
    >when it's performed 100% correctly its always right
    ????????????????????????????????????

  26. ISO #26
    Tag me every time you quote me Walrein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panther (#16)
    a REAL reaction test: (not the kind where people go back after the fact to justify something that was a $#@!ty push, as Zack mentioned)

    http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/...=1#post1444112

    I pretended to have accidentally hit "crtl+v" where I meant to type 'v' and inserted a little fake blurb that was intended to look like a wolf chat post where I was talking about Alette being a wolf who was in decent shape based on thread consensus.

    It was a really lucrative reaction test, far and away the best among the few I've ever attempted in the past couple years - netted 4 villagers and 1 wolf - Jon Paul sticks out like a sore thumb among the other natural, villager responses. Beck played it pretty well, but in retrospect, his complete lack of paranoia is unfitting (hard for me to make a judgement at the time bc of my assumption that he just knows my game).

    Quote Originally Posted by Panther (#6447)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jon Paul (#6414)
    Wow that toatlly does.

    Panther why did you leave instructions like that? WTF is going on.
    so let's talk about this being the "one of these things is not like the other" from the top half of this page
    oh man rereading my posts in this is hilarious

    cause i had just woken up and didn't have the presence of mind to do anything except take the weird post in stride until SR made me do a double take
    [11:32 AM] effen: You are the reason we can't have nice things

  27. ISO #27
    The Self Narrator Owner Of A Lonely Heart's Avatar
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    I think there's different types of reaction tests, in regards to the level that the player is at and their skill with it.

    Reaction tests are best done I think when the player performing the test already has an idea of what they are looking for.

    Anyone who tries to do a reaction test and doesn't know what they are looking for will get a mixed bag of results or will miss the opportunity for it to be successfully useful to him or her.

    There's also the knowledge and experience that comes with knowning how long to do the test for. Doing it too short, will have some players complain that you didn't do it for long enough. Doing it for too long, will potentially bear similar results in that you will have wasted valuable time and might have become more scummy in the process.

    On top of that, there's the open and closed reaction tests. Open reaction tests would be the ones that after doing the test you share your findings and likely push according. Closed reaction tests, you won't necessarily allow other to see your findings. You keep your conclusions hidden. Closed reaction tests will likely have a portion of players coming back to you and asking what were your findings.

    If done well, I think the open reaction tests can move the game along well. Usually, you would lead off with a gambit sort of statement, gain reactions and know which alignments would more or less respond in which way, and then apply pressure to results that peeked your interested, though it can be also good to push players who did not participate in the reaction test as well.
    Last edited by Owner Of A Lonely Heart; September 23rd, 2017 at 11:55 PM.

  28. ISO #28
    N0 peek Monstrman's Avatar
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    coming from someone who has in the past consistently passed reaction tests as a wolf and failed them as a villager

    they are a flawed metric
    Last edited by Monstrman; September 24th, 2017 at 12:00 AM.

  29. ISO #29
    Queen Shifty Frozen Angel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Owner Of A Lonely Heart (#27)
    If done well, I think the open reaction tests can move the game along well. Usually, you would lead off with a gambit sort of statement, gain reactions and know which alignments would more or less respond in which way, and then apply pressure to results that peeked your interested, though it can be also good to push players who did not participate in the reaction test as well.
    Its the part that is wrong : no certain alignment would react in a certain way. different people will act differently based on their alignments.

    take person x, he is too lazy, really defensive and emotional. you act like you're game throwing and that you are confbiasing him. he will not try to sort you out, he will just vote you back and call you scum.

    take person y, he is really patient, he will try to understand the motivations behind the votes on him and he is generally more confident when playing. he will ask you tones of questions or might leave you alone and move the game in another direction. the guy will do w/e he thinks is best for town not for himself.

    you can't judge x and y with 1 reaction test as a group. reaction tests will work when you do it on a single person when considering his/her unique personality and when you think about the motivation behind his action not the reaction itself.

    the differences between examples x and y are a little bit too much. most of the times you can't see the differences between two players unless if you think about them and analyse their behaviors really carefully.
    False tears bring pain to those around you
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  30. ISO #30
    The Self Narrator Owner Of A Lonely Heart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frozen Angel (#29)
    Quote Originally Posted by Owner Of A Lonely Heart (#27)
    If done well, I think the open reaction tests can move the game along well. Usually, you would lead off with a gambit sort of statement, gain reactions and know which alignments would more or less respond in which way, and then apply pressure to results that peeked your interested, though it can be also good to push players who did not participate in the reaction test as well.
    Its the part that is wrong : no certain alignment would react in a certain way. different people will act differently based on their alignments.

    take person x, he is too lazy, really defensive and emotional. you act like you're game throwing and that you are confbiasing him. he will not try to sort you out, he will just vote you back and call you scum.

    take person y, he is really patient, he will try to understand the motivations behind the votes on him and he is generally more confident when playing. he will ask you tones of questions or might leave you alone and move the game in another direction. the guy will do w/e he thinks is best for town not for himself.

    you can't judge x and y with 1 reaction test as a group. reaction tests will work when you do it on a single person when considering his/her unique personality and when you think about the motivation behind his action not the reaction itself.

    the differences between examples x and y are a little bit too much. most of the times you can't see the differences between two players unless if you think about them and analyse their behaviors really carefully.
    But those are playstles. That's a totally different topic. You read into people's playstyles separately than you read into their reactions. Yes, people will react in different ways, but I guess I'm arguing about something like this:

    Player A is an outed cop, who is reaction testing their cop check. He knows that player B is green, but he is looking to get a bit more information out of this one check. He calls player B scum and places a vote on him.

    Player B reacts defensively, calls Player A fake, votes Player A or is not around does nothing.

    Player 1 will place his vote on Player B.
    Player 2 will see Player B react and delay his vote.
    Player 3 will see the claim and do nothing/not get involved.
    Player 4 will defend Player B and push towards Player A.
    Player 5 will vote for Player B but will have his own reasons next to his vote.

    Mafia could do all these things, but some are more likely town than mafia and vice versa. But like Klopp said, you first need to determine their level.

    I would also add to what Klopp said and remember to Find out if you can trust the person or not. They can say all the right things, but if you can't trust them, you make up reasons to trust their words.

    I guess what I'm trying to say is that all the while that this is going on I'm reading into everyone's motivations. But not all levels of players play on that level of thinking.

  31. ISO #31
    why are we still talking about reaction tests

    they

    a) are justification for $#@!ty posting
    b) never work
    c) annoy everyone in the game
    d) people can react completely differently depending on mindset, time of day, person who is questioning them, all kinds of $#@! without even looking at alignment

    Vote NO to reaction tests

  32. ISO #32
    Zack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#31)
    why are we still talking about reaction tests

    they

    a) are justification for $#@!ty posting
    b) never work
    c) annoy everyone in the game
    d) people can react completely differently depending on mindset, time of day, person who is questioning them, all kinds of $#@! without even looking at alignment

    Vote NO to reaction tests
    counterpoint

  33. ISO #33
    Soul Reader lulz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zack (#32)
    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#31)
    why are we still talking about reaction tests

    they

    a) are justification for $#@!ty posting
    b) never work
    c) annoy everyone in the game
    d) people can react completely differently depending on mindset, time of day, person who is questioning them, all kinds of $#@! without even looking at alignment

    Vote NO to reaction tests
    counterpoint
    I agree with your counterpoint in some ways but why did it take 46 pages for Barm to be killed after he scum-claimed like that?

  34. ISO #34
    Zack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lulz (#33)
    Quote Originally Posted by Zack (#32)
    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#31)
    why are we still talking about reaction tests

    they

    a) are justification for $#@!ty posting
    b) never work
    c) annoy everyone in the game
    d) people can react completely differently depending on mindset, time of day, person who is questioning them, all kinds of $#@! without even looking at alignment

    Vote NO to reaction tests
    counterpoint
    I agree with your counterpoint in some ways but why did it take 46 pages for Barm to be killed after he scum-claimed like that?
    well in that instance, there was an actual red peek on someone already

  35. ISO #35
    Flip Flop Klopp Klopp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#31)
    why are we still talking about reaction tests

    they

    a) are justification for $#@!ty posting
    b) never work
    c) annoy everyone in the game
    d) people can react completely differently depending on mindset, time of day, person who is questioning them, all kinds of $#@! without even looking at alignment

    Vote NO to reaction tests
    I already realised we mean different things by "reaction test" so not even going to argue about it.

  36. ISO #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Klopp (#35)
    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#31)
    why are we still talking about reaction tests

    they

    a) are justification for $#@!ty posting
    b) never work
    c) annoy everyone in the game
    d) people can react completely differently depending on mindset, time of day, person who is questioning them, all kinds of $#@! without even looking at alignment

    Vote NO to reaction tests
    I already realised we mean different things by "reaction test" so not even going to argue about it.
    im talking to the other people itt :P

  37. ISO #37
    Queen Shifty Frozen Angel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#31)
    why are we still talking about reaction tests

    they

    a) are justification for $#@!ty posting
    b) never work
    c) annoy everyone in the game
    d) people can react completely differently depending on mindset, time of day, person who is questioning them, all kinds of $#@! without even looking at alignment

    Vote NO to reaction tests
    a) they have been abused a lot
    b) They always work. You can't do it maybe
    c) why? This is actually an interesting point. I think I know why you said this but i want to hear more about it from you first.
    d) hence why in a right reaction test you test an individual not the society. I passed a university course "just about this" and it's really really accurate and it works. We can model human beings decision making and conclude their motivations and we don't need a pc to do that for us. we just need to understand the pattern of actions someone make.
    False tears bring pain to those around you
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  38. ISO #38
    The Self Narrator Owner Of A Lonely Heart's Avatar
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    I'm not particularly good at it, but I know a guy who used to play mafia who would put fear into me when he would make gambit sort of plays that were all about reaction testing. All I know is it can work if you know what you are doing.

  39. ISO #39
    N0 peek Monstrman's Avatar
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    @Visorslash let's just reply to every reaction test made in a thread with "lol reaction tests" to skew the metric

    they're easy to recognize
    Last edited by Monstrman; September 24th, 2017 at 02:11 PM.

  40. ISO #40
    Soul Reader lulz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monstrman (#39)
    @Visorslash let's just reply to every reaction test made in a thread with "lol reaction tests" to skew the metric

    they're easy to recognize
    I'm down with making a separate thread with some reaction tests.

  41. ISO #41
    GOAT Tier Michael22Omega's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#31)
    why are we still talking about reaction tests

    they

    a) are justification for $#@!ty posting
    b) never work
    c) annoy everyone in the game
    d) people can react completely differently depending on mindset, time of day, person who is questioning them, all kinds of $#@! without even looking at alignment

    Vote NO to reaction tests
    Disagreed, every-time I did reaction test to someone I" got their alignment correct. I'm serious
    It's just the task of thinking on something that I believe will work on this particular player, based on knowing their meta and what type of player I would consider them.
    But it must always be within the context, you can't make reaction tests made up in SOD and hope they work. I also agree with owner that you should know what you expect.
    Recent example I remember http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/...47#post1574047
    And then I added him to town core because of this http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/...13#post1575613

    And yeh I'm too lazy to make the link look fancy

  42. ISO #42
    Thread Analyst atomicpianowitch's Avatar
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    I can't say enough how much this article helped me (a noob).

  43. ISO #43
    Flip Flop Klopp Klopp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by atomicpianowitch (#42)
    I can't say enough how much this article helped me (a noob).
    Thank you, I'm glad I could help.

  44. ISO #44
    Soul Reader Elephantality's Avatar
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    My favorite part was the macro vs micro. Also wrt reaction tests, I guess it depends on how overused the reaction test is and how composed the test subject is. I know on my site that reaction tests were over-used and it just annoyed people. Sometimes gambits have worked in town's favor, sometimes screwing it over.

    I think a really good reaction test is simply bandwagoning players in the early game, to test their reactions. Simply just use your vote more, your vote is a tool. A person naked voting me is more pressure then someone using shoot: me because I know it's not that likely it is authentic and if it was I would be dead and have no need to react. (Except to spill my final thoughts as quick as possible to help town) A naked vote is more pressure since we all know it works and it is essentially implying *I suspect you, and that may or may not change* and that feeling sucks.

    Of course a vote with reasoning will have the same pressure, just one without reasoning you can't do anything about and you can't react to with suspicion because they haven't outed their reasoning yet. You simply have to bide your time with it and hope they feel better about you. A vote with reasoning can be argued away if you play it right.

    Something I always try to do is lynch the weaker scum first so that way I can gain good reactions from their buddies and hopefully find them in the future. Some people want to do the reverse, find the stronger scum but the thing is to find them you have to find their mistakes. A good scum will probably leave little signs of their scumminess, and then it may be too late when you find them. Of course another way may be to shake things up (like for example, early game wagons! or shaking up a D2 wagon switch, forcing scum to make quick decisions, in hopes they slip [which goes in hand with Klopp's point that scum mess up when they are pressured and emotioned), even though it may weaken your own position as town)

    I do agree that wolves may understand to post in the early game to have a good position, to look good, yet I will say that it's also important for townies to post in the early game and also have a good position in town. Although it will be telling if that person opened up nicely and then had inconsistent posting. I myself was lynched for this very reason as mafia in my recent game. I posted in early game, tried to drum up content, be pro-town, but I was not posting as much. I was lynched for being an empty shell of what I truly am. A ball of energy wanting people to do stuff, I was not that. I was trying to pretend to be that.

    I think I suck at acting.
    Last edited by Elephantality; September 29th, 2017 at 04:53 AM.

  45. ISO #45
    Thread Analyst atomicpianowitch's Avatar
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    if you wish to help my (and many other people's) town games, an articel on how to avoid lynch would be good.
    and how to not tunnel

  46. ISO #46
    Flip Flop Klopp Klopp's Avatar
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    How to avoid lynch as a villager:
    1. Give your best shot at solving and taking part in town discussions.
    2. Play with players who can tell the difference between a villagery and a wolfy player.
    3. You probably won't get lynched.

    How to avoid lynch as mafia:
    1. Give your best shot at solving and taking part in town discussions.
    2. Play with players who will townread you for it.
    3. You will probably still get lynched.

    How not to tunnel:
    1. Unvote the player you're tunneling and find someone else.

  47. ISO #47
    Queen Shifty Frozen Angel's Avatar
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    best way to not get lynched is to have a constant natural activity and having natural "shocks" in your game play.

    a player who is never defending is suspicious. a player who is never being aggressive is suspicious. a player who is constantly doing one is suspicious. the best way is to be clam and natural and to have natural and on time defenses/aggressive approaches in game.

    also a productive activity and never giving up saves players who are getting lynched. to be productive is not to fear getting lynched.

    so in tldr
    1 - relax
    2 - have natural progression
    3 - don't get lynched.
    False tears bring pain to those around you
    False smile brings pain to one's self

  48. ISO #48
    Soul Reader Quick's Avatar
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    Have a question for people here.

    What are your thoughts on the thought process of "don't reevaluate without a reason"?

    Thanks.

    Also,

    chaos is good for the village
    This is an excellent quote. I have noticed the same thing myself but it was from observing my own play and looking at my winrates that told me this. Basically, I have said in multiple games that I am a good Town player, not because I am the best Scum hunter, or that my reads are very good, or even that I am good at getting Town read... No, I am good as Town because when I am in the game as Town, stuff gets talked about that normally doesn't get talked about.
    Last edited by Quick; November 12th, 2017 at 05:46 AM.
    As someone with a creative pattern, you tend to seek unique accomplishments and innovative solutions. On the surface, you may seem to have a contradictory nature.
    Taken from my results regarding motivation from DISC

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  49. ISO #49
    Flip Flop Klopp Klopp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quick (#48)
    Have a question for people here.

    What are your thoughts on the thought process of "don't reevaluate without a reason"?

    Thanks.

    Also,

    chaos is good for the village
    This is an excellent quote. I have noticed the same thing myself but it was from observing my own play and looking at my winrates that told me this. Basically, I have said in multiple games that I am a good Town player, not because I am the best Scum hunter, or that my reads are very good, or even that I am good at getting Town read... No, I am good as Town because when I am in the game as Town, stuff gets talked about that normally doesn't get talked about.
    Well, if you think about it, there is always some reason for your reevaluation. However there are good and not so good reasons for actually doing it. If you are prone to playing the leveling game with yourself, you're constantly tinfoiling and can't ever decide on who to trust then you're doing something wrong. This is not a way I would recommend of going about reevulating. However if some actual new information comes to light during the game and you decide on adjusting your reads based on that, then it's completely okay.
    So to answer your question, I believe in reevalueating, but also in being brave and confident in your abilities to read the game. If you get it wrong it's not the end of the world, you still got future days to make things right.

  50. ISO #50
    Soul Reader Quick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klopp (#49)
    Quote Originally Posted by Quick (#48)
    Have a question for people here.

    What are your thoughts on the thought process of "don't reevaluate without a reason"?

    Thanks.

    Also,

    chaos is good for the village
    This is an excellent quote. I have noticed the same thing myself but it was from observing my own play and looking at my winrates that told me this. Basically, I have said in multiple games that I am a good Town player, not because I am the best Scum hunter, or that my reads are very good, or even that I am good at getting Town read... No, I am good as Town because when I am in the game as Town, stuff gets talked about that normally doesn't get talked about.
    Well, if you think about it, there is always some reason for your reevaluation. However there are good and not so good reasons for actually doing it. If you are prone to playing the leveling game with yourself, you're constantly tinfoiling and can't ever decide on who to trust then you're doing something wrong. This is not a way I would recommend of going about reevulating. However if some actual new information comes to light during the game and you decide on adjusting your reads based on that, then it's completely okay.
    So to answer your question, I believe in reevalueating, but also in being brave and confident in your abilities to read the game. If you get it wrong it's not the end of the world, you still got future days to make things right.
    Thanks for your feedback
    As someone with a creative pattern, you tend to seek unique accomplishments and innovative solutions. On the surface, you may seem to have a contradictory nature.
    Taken from my results regarding motivation from DISC

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