i love postgame analyses
Type: Posts; User: Makaze
i love postgame analyses
Likewise. My case on you was based on real things. You wasted a lot of time and effort on wagonomics and then dropped it an cleared jump for bad reasons, even if you were right. But you were on to me so I had to adapt my strategy and I'm glad that it worked even if it didn't matter in the end.
Is there a link to the gy?
Where do you think you went wrong?
This game wouldn't have been the same without an amazing sub game. Subs should never be underestimated, mark my words.
You did a great job of finding subs. Thank you for hosting the game
I think I did a good job emulating my town game, so don't feel bad.
@Psycho666Soldier
@jumpluff
You had me on the run and I thought I was losing this game. You guys deserve a raise.
@Athena_57 even
Biggest thanks to @Athena for being the perfect D1 wagon. We couldn't have done it without you.
I want to give a shout-out to everyone who played and subbed into this game. I would like to play more with you guys, hopefully as town next time. The subs played an amazing game. Thank you for playing.
##Vote Psycho666Soldier
Good game.
It's probably just chelsea psycho
I would put Psycho/Logic above Psycho/jumpluff as tinfoils go
@jumpluff did you get to read
P#2069
Just read it there
why did supa have to break his quotes in those isos
you get the point
I'm gonna show you a trick
Here is a post made by aria D3, around EoD
I have highlighted the modifiers in her sentences that highlight emotion, uncertainty, or attempt to not exacerbate
Here is a post made by Aria on D2, around EoD
i had gone to sleep hoping i would feel less sick today. instead i feel completely terriblebut at least i tested negative for covid. silver lining. i will technically be here for phase end but i'm totally lacking in energy for real posting (i even interrupted this post because i vomited so that's really fun) so i only have a few things to say
i'm still at very strong scumread on claire and judging by like... everything else i really don't expect this to change barring extreme circumstance so she is my personal #1 for a lynch
i didn't get to look into fenrir until now and gave the guy a pretty brief skim. there's overall not all that much to actually go with other than similar eod1 vote history as claire which i've already commented i believe reflects poorly on her but i think less interactions, and less to go off of in general would lead to it being less fruitful and there's less to indicate to me that it's as likely to be correct
still feel unsure about yolo, i have not had the same opportunity to give him what i feel like is a more fair readthrough + consideration since he has significantly more going on than fenrir. i'm not actively townreading the guy so i guess i would put him more in the ??? pile. on the other hand there would probably be a lot more learned out of this wagon than fenrir so there's like some amount of upside there? that might amount to it being overall worth it for the value gained even if i have very little confidence about my own feelings on the matter. i was going to ask about what the policy is for ties here and if i should be avoiding those and then i decided to not be an idiot and read the dang rules myself so avoiding one of those seems preferable
i actually dragged on and took longer than i thought i would with just this. argh
I have done the same thing, notice how she is consistently not confident and giving off the impression she is meek.
Here's another post by her EoD D1, but this time this is in response to someone accusing her
why does it matter that my initial vote was rvs? i would have switched my vote to you in one of my earlier posts (probably somewhere on like page 5 or 6) because your posts have consistently been outright bad at answering things asked of you even when you've been demonstrably around or had the chance to do so. the fact that i was already be voting for you from rvs stuff seems to be your primary point of fixation and your reluctance to vote elsewhere in spite of talking big about shinori like most of the phase. in the time since i started this post you've even posted since, commented you see no reasons me and shinori aren't a scumteam aaaand moved to dunn instead. what is that all about? you just kept talking about how scummy shinori is and then didn't commit to get anything going on him even when there was plenty of time. your main disagreement with me seems to be that i parked my vote for a long time and then talked about your own tradition not to change your vote from someone you think needs pressure, but on my end i think the way you've acted under said pressure is very weird and all the "wow this speaks for itself" content is just totally useless. nothing i've seen convinces me that my vote is better off elsewhere, so i have kept it where it isYou are not, strange as it may seem. I still think ariadne is hella scummy for just riding their vote on me and doing nothing. There is still a chance this is just town death tunneling me, but I don't see any way for ariadne's read to be real, especially since she hasn't changed her vote since RVS.
You and ariadne both being scum makes a lot of sense to me, especially from the ariadne lacking accountability from RVS angle and you putting the pressure out in the open, ariadne had no risk of looking like she was sheeping (though that backfired in the end).
also there was more than one question from people about "why is ria unsure about everything" or something similar- my last game of NOC was SFMM4 in 2014 (there might be some 2015 smogon game i can't remember but i do not care to check) so no, i am not particularly confident that all of my reads are good.
that being said, i think mafia shinori feels like it would be pretty out of character based on how much he's consistently put himself out there, and it feels like a low upside play as scum to completely go out of his way like the way he's been at it with makaze
i still don't like chelsea for the same reasons i've said before
i think fjp and ath are both kind of whatever from my look over. fjp lynch right now feels like a waste of time, i would be more okay with athena voted out but they're both like... they feel kinda low impact more than outright scummy. apparently neither of these are super relevant anymore but i said i'd take a look at them nonetheless and my thoughts are a resounding "meh" on the both of them
i'll be back before deadline
In this post I did the opposite, highlighting her seeming confidence towards someone she is in contention with.
Aria's post follow a pretty strict pattern:
If she isn't being accused: Meek, Unassuming, Lack of confidence
If she is being accused: Confrontational, Defensive, Accusatory
Now ask yourself if she made such strong statements towards Mak why she did not bother to push him, moreover, why is this somehow annulled or not really brought up again. The only thing she's been able to latch onto (and this is because it has remained a relevant topic) is Claire, and this all bodes with the fact I think she's just trying to seem consistent with that scumread, but generally speaking that's all she has. It's not that townies can't be confrontational or defensive or whatever. It's the way she uses those things, or even the way she doesn't. I don't know aria like you do but I think if you're going to throw down something has got to come out of it, but instead it leads to nothing. Her behavior is purely reactionary when it comes to interactions and then when she is left alone she doesn't really have much to say. It doesn't seem like she's really thinking about the people she confronts either, which is not a good look. Her presence is dictated all on emotion and even then she uses it to appeal to others.[/QUOTE]
quoted my summary from eod bc it probably does better than all of my words here
Upon rereading Psycho I tried to find reasons why I was wrong, and there is actually a lot of content where his arguments make sense. The problem is that his thoughts when he's reacting to content and his conclusions do not make sense. I'm still getting pings from him coming in and calling woopons a misyeet and then voting Chelsea right off the bat. His first PoE at the time consisted of supa, Logic and Chelsea, and but when I challenged him he asked me to prove that they weren't. When I did he dropped both of them, and then changed his tactic from widening the PoE with wagonomics to casing me for my current argument in the thread, ignoring everything he said up to that point and distracting from my questions. I asked him repeatedly who he thought worked with supa and PB and he never answered, but instead found reasons to tunnel me and moved to woopons. supa and PB weren't revisited except for after thoughts, and he said he didn't think Chelsea could happen that day. Even after he did that, there were some conspicuous gaps in his reasoning like when he said he would have thought it town for Chelsea to provide doc cover, but didn't mention it for woopons who actually did it until I called him out. This looks worse now that woopons flipped town.
I noted how his read of woopons jumped all over the place in my case in P#2778, but his read of me does the same thing in several places.
D1: She lacking in content and she waffled on most of her reads except when she vote parked on me and then joined on Athena despite not having read him as far as I could see. I still think she was the scummiest vote on me (and it made sense with Shinori).
D2-D3: After the Athena flip she didn't look much better and I cased her in my wallpost because she never read Athena before voting. I've more or less stayed the same on ariadne since D1, but it became clear they couldn't work with Chelsea and she was the bigger scumread. I also don't buy that it can be Sully/ariadne because of Sully's case on her D1 and the way she reacted to Chelsea's comment about being scum/scum with Sully (this one I'm less sure on).
D4: She's stayed in my PoE throughout the game because she's not solving the game. She's not forming a PoE and I don't get the sense she is invested in any lim, including Athena's. supa made case on her which highlights how she suddenly gets more sure of her opinions when she cases people who are scumreading her and qualifies everything else, and I think he is on to something about the drastic change in language between posts.
The big events with ariadne are her case on me D1 and her reaction to the Chelsea comment. The lack of events is a big part of the scumread. She seems to be following instead of leading.I'm assuming this is your PoE, but we only have two chances, so I'm not seeing what you're seeing. Which team are we dealing with if it's supa or Logic?Ok, this is the disconnect. Remember when you asked why I had my POE? This was the answer.
Supa2, Logic, Chelsea, and Jumpluff were all off-wagon. It would be between you and woopons as the possible bussers. But I'm not sure I buy that Athena was completely buried here considering the resistance to the wagon. I think it's more likely FJP was on early as distancing or pre-emptive bussing and didn't have room/was too scared to back out.
Unless you're a wolf, of which I'm doubtful, then there has to be two other wolves on the YOLOSWAG wagon.
Outside of the feels from recent posts, I gave Jumpluff credit for pushing Chelsea with my slot and flipped town Bartozio. Even if we're wrong on Chelsea, the small trio of people bucking against the larger misyeet is something I've seen a lot. Especially if their reasons for voting that way didn't all align.
And then the fjp lynch which felt more like a proper burial looking at the vc. Fjp fairly inactive, and seemingly cornered in some way. woopons does actually look like the possible lone wolf trying to turn the tide of a partner's yeet, but I think the other two wolves cut their losses here ultimately. So one wolf guaranteed in there, with me feeling like both said $%#! it for cred.
You cross that with my feelings about the previous vc, that leaves me with a POE of Logic, Supa, and Chelsea. At this point I'd put woopons in just for conveniently looking like a busser who tried to use that cred to save another partner. But as much as the last EOD vc makes him look bad, I think the late tag-along on Athena feels townie by nature of the votes.
The only world that drastically changes my opinion is if you are scum, in which case yeeting Athena was a way to save you after the possible clean alternative of Dunnstral fell apart.
The latter post should be obvious. I think it reinforces my POE.You didn't answer my question.
I'm not seeing anything at the bottom. I bolded the part I read as your PoE.
It's at the top of the post unless I'm misreading
I'm still scumreading Chelsea, but I read PB in P#2573, and Logic hasn't done anything. I don't think it's supa because we've been mindmelding basically all game and he's been pushing good arguments like in P#2069 and the way he argues in posts like P#1849 screams town to me.I'm coming at this with fresh eyes. You guys have probably been drowning yourselves in associations in a game where wolves have been distancing - and bussing is damn near guaranteed to have happened twice unless the team is exactly jumpluff/woopons. I'm looking at this from a raw outside perspective.
So a question to you: why not Logic, Chelsea, or Supa?
I don't have any reasons to scumread their slots but I do have reasons to scumread yours. You'll have to explain your case to me if you want me to change.I did miss that, but I don't think it contradicts my first read.You didn't answer my question.
I'm not seeing anything at the bottom. I bolded the part I read as your PoE.
It's at the top of the post unless I'm misreading
I'm still scumreading Chelsea, but I read PB in P#2573, and Logic hasn't done anything. I don't think it's supa because we've been mindmelding basically all game and he's been pushing good arguments like in P#2069 and the way he argues in posts like P#1849 screams town to me.
I don't have any reasons to scumread their slots but I do have reasons to scumread yours. You'll have to explain your case to me if you want me to change.There's also stuff in between where I clearly pushed jumpluff out.
I didn't answer because you didn't even bother reading or having an opinion on what I'm seeing. My teams are within the logic of my vca and will be more relevant to me after I find the next wolf based on the patterns already.
Hell, a cursory glance shows that supa and Logic have voted as a block this whole game, with Chelsea only barely bucking the trend.
I'll read those supa posts later because my time is running short, but the basic reasoning alone seems fine on its own. Plus, he seemed pretty innocent with my brief interaction with him last night. I wanted to verify your read on Paperblade, though, because it seems based on tone and perception of his play. Which is fine for d1. But other than that first post about not reading more than three sentences, I don't think anything he said in the following post was particularly townie or hard to fake. Most of reasoning was based on meta-related stuff, which is really easy to pull off as scum. Especially if it's based on a TMI read on what could be a town!you. I think at this point, "not having reasons to scumread their slots" is enough to just write them off.
You'll change if you want to win the game. But I'm down to throw if that's what you're all about.
Why did you take jumpluff out of the PoE for being off wagon?
I'm not saying that Chelsea/Supa/PB can't be the team, but I'm reading two of them town and I don't think being wrong the whole game is damning when they're so easy to soul read.
I'm trying to get you to pin a case based on specific evidence because I don't buy wagonomics without a narrative and at least reading the votes to see if they're pinging based on tone and context.
You're looking at who voted and basing it on that without even reading the content, and it's easy for scum to do that without reading, but if you refuse to do that then it's more scummy instead of just easy.You're right, I guess my eyes just glazed over I found (or thought I found) your PoE. Reading it seriously now.Ok, this is the disconnect. Remember when you asked why I had my POE? This was the answer.
Supa2, Logic, Chelsea, and Jumpluff were all off-wagon. It would be between you and woopons as the possible bussers. But I'm not sure I buy that Athena was completely buried here considering the resistance to the wagon. I think it's more likely FJP was on early as distancing or pre-emptive bussing and didn't have room/was too scared to back out.
Unless you're a wolf, of which I'm doubtful, then there has to be two other wolves on the YOLOSWAG wagon.
Outside of the feels from recent posts, I gave Jumpluff credit for pushing Chelsea with my slot and flipped town Bartozio. Even if we're wrong on Chelsea, the small trio of people bucking against the larger misyeet is something I've seen a lot. Especially if their reasons for voting that way didn't all align.
And then the fjp lynch which felt more like a proper burial looking at the vc. Fjp fairly inactive, and seemingly cornered in some way. woopons does actually look like the possible lone wolf trying to turn the tide of a partner's yeet, but I think the other two wolves cut their losses here ultimately. So one wolf guaranteed in there, with me feeling like both said $%#! it for cred.
You cross that with my feelings about the previous vc, that leaves me with a POE of Logic, Supa, and Chelsea. At this point I'd put woopons in just for conveniently looking like a busser who tried to use that cred to save another partner. But as much as the last EOD vc makes him look bad, I think the late tag-along on Athena feels townie by nature of the votes.
The only world that drastically changes my opinion is if you are scum, in which case yeeting Athena was a way to save you after the possible clean alternative of Dunnstral fell apart.
The latter post should be obvious. I think it reinforces my POE.
This actually reads as having some logic, but I reconcile that with how you cleared jumpluff despite them being reluctant on the wagons both times. I don't think that's a valid reason to clear jump's slot given the associations with Athena and fjp, assuming you've read their votes on them. Certainly not more than supa or PB. If it's you instead of her then this feels like a self-serving read because it helps you get rid of Chelsea who is the main push on you, and I think you look very bad if Chelsea is town which is why you are pushing everyone else in your PoE, saving her a lylo mislim. It feels convenient regardless of jumpluff's alignment.Can you point to the specific posts you're talking about? I'm not getting it from memory.
That's correct. The logic goes that if you're scum then a Chelsea lim implicates you, so you'd want to both avoid that lim while pocketing anyone who would both widen the PoE and vote Chelsea with you in lylo. jumpluff fits that description.You cared when voting Chelsea, but not when voting wooponsjumpluff isn't my POE. Again, are you actually reading the post? Because my putting jumpluff there is explained in that exact post. If you bothered actually caring about what I had to say instead of tunneling me like a weirdo, you'd see that over night, I came to me basically feeling like it has to be woopons/Chelsea, and I was happy to take supa out based on interactions and discussions with jump. So My POE was those two plus Logic, but thinking PB's posts on D1 seemed pretty towny. If I'm wrong on woopons/Chelsea, then I have to consider that I could be letting jumpluff slide too much.I already answered that in P#2965, but I'm not sure what you're asking if that's not the answer.
If there's something I'm forgetting I've probably already said it in one of my arguments throughout the game.
P#2093 is my case on you and your reaction on D2, first case is you look back with Athena and second is why I thought it was scummy to ask about my scumgame when you supposedly read my case on you yesterday
Why you work with Sully in P#2386/P#1585
PoE analysis in P#2422
Answered your question in P#2423
My case on you today in #2522 looks at why you look bad with fjp too and that you make sense in a Chelsea world
At first I thought you couldn't work with ari because of your shade earlygame, but my iso of Psycho made me reconsider
I think you work in both worlds and locked in on voting me because you have no option but to loosen poe
I feel like no one responded to my Psycho case unless you count woopons and all he said was "It's easy to fake wagonomics but idk". Psycho has completely dropped their wagonomics case after I called them on it and no one is seeing it as weird.
I might have missed it but why did you put jump back in the PoE?
For everyone seeing this, please read my argument P#2778
I'm going to point back to my argument in P#2778 about he said it was jumpluff but has changed to calling it Sully after I called you out on it but never responded to it in P#2749.
Simply put I don't buy that you don't think that it mattered because you mentioned it for on Chelsea who didn't do it and then came back to woopons, but only mentioned you had the same read on woopons when I called you out on it. If you wanted to note things and show your progression then I think you would say it before I forced you like you did with your Chelsea case. This is what I meant by an unnatural progression, you're saying as much about woopons as absolutely necessary but are waffling on Chelsea more naturally.
I can't be the only one who is pinged by this AtE.
Is that would you do here as scum? I don't think you would give up when there's at my wagon and would try to present your town game until EoD.
I'm out of time for my lunch
I'll be back around 730 but I'll sneak to the bathroom to keep up on reading
AtE? What are you talking about? How is that post AtE at all?
I didn't respond to my mix-up about jump/Sully because it's irrelevant. It's clear by jumpluff I meant jumpluff's slot. Whether it was actually jumpluff or Sully doesn't matter, and the fact you're making it out like it does is weird. Why are you being so weird about my slot?
To be honest, I don't care about noting my progression. Townies shouldn't care about their appearance. I care about solving, no matter how sporadic it might look to you.
AtE was the last sentence trying to shame me into dropping the wagon
There is a big difference between too many in PoE on D2 and too many right now, and I don't think it makese sense to compare them
@jumpluff
My argument about Psycho's clear is that he was too quick to clear you and as more info came out it was revealed that it was for when Sully voted Chelsea which was his scummiest post of the game and he said that it was you. I believe that he saw the vote on the vote history page and cleared without even reading the post. What's scummy is he eliminated you from the PoE and acted like it was a serious read but that wasn't the case based on what he posted.
@Psycho666Soldier What was scummy about you not reading was that in the same post you called woopons a misyeet and voted Chelsea, and then moved jumpluff out of the PoE for a bad reason, while claiming you hadn't read the game. Not reading the game and claiming to not have read it are different, and your progressions were weird from post 1 without any context and your read of woopons doesn't make sense based on how your day started.
Wagonomics -> PB/Supa/Chelsea PoE -> Complete shift in opinions and tactic to ISOs after being called out by me
The last post is the most important.
Outside of his entrance he has good tone at some times but there are times when he appeals to AtE and makes assumptions like this ping in P#2973. I think that this kind of tactic is >rand to be scum because it appeals to the fear of being wrong and is not an argument for why I am wrong. Almost this exact wording was used on me in my first game on MU and I got steamrolled into doubting my gutreads at LYLO.
I do not think town him makes this many different types of arguments just to end up at the most convenient lims without while leaving big gaps in his thought process.
Looking back at supa, Psycho's change in tactics follows a similar reasoning to what supa said about ariadne.
I'm gonna show you a trick
Here is a post made by aria D3, around EoD
I have highlighted the modifiers in her sentences that highlight emotion, uncertainty, or attempt to not exacerbate
Here is a post made by Aria on D2, around EoD
i had gone to sleep hoping i would feel less sick today. instead i feel completely terrible
i'm still at very strong scumread on claire and judging by like... everything else i really don't expect this to change barring extreme circumstance so she is my personal #1 for a lynch
i didn't get to look into fenrir until now and gave the guy a pretty brief skim. there's overall not all that much to actually go with other than similar eod1 vote history as claire which i've already commented i believe reflects poorly on her but i think less interactions, and less to go off of in general would lead to it being less fruitful and there's less to indicate to me that it's as likely to be correct
still feel unsure about yolo, i have not had the same opportunity to give him what i feel like is a more fair readthrough + consideration since he has significantly more going on than fenrir. i'm not actively townreading the guy so i guess i would put him more in the ??? pile. on the other hand there would probably be a lot more learned out of this wagon than fenrir so there's like some amount of upside there? that might amount to it being overall worth it for the value gained even if i have very little confidence about my own feelings on the matter. i was going to ask about what the policy is for ties here and if i should be avoiding those and then i decided to not be an idiot and read the dang rules myself so avoiding one of those seems preferable
i actually dragged on and took longer than i thought i would with just this. argh
I have done the same thing, notice how she is consistently not confident and giving off the impression she is meek.
Here's another post by her EoD D1, but this time this is in response to someone accusing her
why does it matter that my initial vote was rvs? i would have switched my vote to you in one of my earlier posts (probably somewhere on like page 5 or 6) because your posts have consistently been outright bad at answering things asked of you even when you've been demonstrably around or had the chance to do so. the fact that i was already be voting for you from rvs stuff seems to be your primary point of fixation and your reluctance to vote elsewhere in spite of talking big about shinori like most of the phase. in the time since i started this post you've even posted since, commented you see no reasons me and shinori aren't a scumteam aaaand moved to dunn instead. what is that all about? you just kept talking about how scummy shinori is and then didn't commit to get anything going on him even when there was plenty of time. your main disagreement with me seems to be that i parked my vote for a long time and then talked about your own tradition not to change your vote from someone you think needs pressure, but on my end i think the way you've acted under said pressure is very weird and all the "wow this speaks for itself" content is just totally useless. nothing i've seen convinces me that my vote is better off elsewhere, so i have kept it where it isYou are not, strange as it may seem. I still think ariadne is hella scummy for just riding their vote on me and doing nothing. There is still a chance this is just town death tunneling me, but I don't see any way for ariadne's read to be real, especially since she hasn't changed her vote since RVS.
You and ariadne both being scum makes a lot of sense to me, especially from the ariadne lacking accountability from RVS angle and you putting the pressure out in the open, ariadne had no risk of looking like she was sheeping (though that backfired in the end).
also there was more than one question from people about "why is ria unsure about everything" or something similar- my last game of NOC was SFMM4 in 2014 (there might be some 2015 smogon game i can't remember but i do not care to check) so no, i am not particularly confident that all of my reads are good.
that being said, i think mafia shinori feels like it would be pretty out of character based on how much he's consistently put himself out there, and it feels like a low upside play as scum to completely go out of his way like the way he's been at it with makaze
i still don't like chelsea for the same reasons i've said before
i think fjp and ath are both kind of whatever from my look over. fjp lynch right now feels like a waste of time, i would be more okay with athena voted out but they're both like... they feel kinda low impact more than outright scummy. apparently neither of these are super relevant anymore but i said i'd take a look at them nonetheless and my thoughts are a resounding "meh" on the both of them
i'll be back before deadline
In this post I did the opposite, highlighting her seeming confidence towards someone she is in contention with.
Aria's post follow a pretty strict pattern:
If she isn't being accused: Meek, Unassuming, Lack of confidence
If she is being accused: Confrontational, Defensive, Accusatory
Now ask yourself if she made such strong statements towards Mak why she did not bother to push him, moreover, why is this somehow annulled or not really brought up again. The only thing she's been able to latch onto (and this is because it has remained a relevant topic) is Claire, and this all bodes with the fact I think she's just trying to seem consistent with that scumread, but generally speaking that's all she has. It's not that townies can't be confrontational or defensive or whatever. It's the way she uses those things, or even the way she doesn't. I don't know aria like you do but I think if you're going to throw down something has got to come out of it, but instead it leads to nothing. Her behavior is purely reactionary when it comes to interactions and then when she is left alone she doesn't really have much to say. It doesn't seem like she's really thinking about the people she confronts either, which is not a good look. Her presence is dictated all on emotion and even then she uses it to appeal to others.[/QUOTE]
I'm out of time
I think Psycho is scummy for PoE and content reasons
You cared when voting Chelsea, but not when voting wooponsjumpluff isn't my POE. Again, are you actually reading the post? Because my putting jumpluff there is explained in that exact post. If you bothered actually caring about what I had to say instead of tunneling me like a weirdo, you'd see that over night, I came to me basically feeling like it has to be woopons/Chelsea, and I was happy to take supa out based on interactions and discussions with jump. So My POE was those two plus Logic, but thinking PB's posts on D1 seemed pretty towny. If I'm wrong on woopons/Chelsea, then I have to consider that I could be letting jumpluff slide too much.I already answered that in P#2965, but I'm not sure what you're asking if that's not the answer.
If there's something I'm forgetting I've probably already said it in one of my arguments throughout the game.
P#2093 is my case on you and your reaction on D2, first case is you look back with Athena and second is why I thought it was scummy to ask about my scumgame when you supposedly read my case on you yesterday
Why you work with Sully in P#2386/P#1585
PoE analysis in P#2422
Answered your question in P#2423
My case on you today in #2522 looks at why you look bad with fjp too and that you make sense in a Chelsea world
At first I thought you couldn't work with ari because of your shade earlygame, but my iso of Psycho made me reconsider
I think you work in both worlds and locked in on voting me because you have no option but to loosen poe
I feel like no one responded to my Psycho case unless you count woopons and all he said was "It's easy to fake wagonomics but idk". Psycho has completely dropped their wagonomics case after I called them on it and no one is seeing it as weird.
I might have missed it but why did you put jump back in the PoE?
For everyone seeing this, please read my argument P#2778
I'm going to point back to my argument in P#2778 about he said it was jumpluff but has changed to calling it Sully after I called you out on it but never responded to it in P#2749.
Simply put I don't buy that you don't think that it mattered because you mentioned it for on Chelsea who didn't do it and then came back to woopons, but only mentioned you had the same read on woopons when I called you out on it. If you wanted to note things and show your progression then I think you would say it before I forced you like you did with your Chelsea case. This is what I meant by an unnatural progression, you're saying as much about woopons as absolutely necessary but are waffling on Chelsea more naturally.
I can't be the only one who is pinged by this AtE.
Is that would you do here as scum? I don't think you would give up when there's at my wagon and would try to present your town game until EoD.
I'm out of time for my lunch
I'll be back around 730 but I'll sneak to the bathroom to keep up on reading
AtE? What are you talking about? How is that post AtE at all?
I didn't respond to my mix-up about jump/Sully because it's irrelevant. It's clear by jumpluff I meant jumpluff's slot. Whether it was actually jumpluff or Sully doesn't matter, and the fact you're making it out like it does is weird. Why are you being so weird about my slot?
To be honest, I don't care about noting my progression. Townies shouldn't care about their appearance. I care about solving, no matter how sporadic it might look to you.
AtE was the last sentence trying to shame me into dropping the wagon
There is a big difference between too many in PoE on D2 and too many right now, and I don't think it makese sense to compare them
@jumpluff
My argument about Psycho's clear is that he was too quick to clear you and as more info came out it was revealed that it was for when Sully voted Chelsea which was his scummiest post of the game and he said that it was you. I believe that he saw the vote on the vote history page and cleared without even reading the post. What's scummy is he eliminated you from the PoE and acted like it was a serious read but that wasn't the case based on what he posted.
@Psycho666Soldier What was scummy about you not reading was that in the same post you called woopons a misyeet and voted Chelsea, and then moved jumpluff out of the PoE for a bad reason, while claiming you hadn't read the game. Not reading the game and claiming to not have read it are different, and your progressions were weird from post 1 without any context and your read of woopons doesn't make sense based on how your day started.
Wagonomics -> PB/Supa/Chelsea PoE -> Complete shift in opinions and tactic to ISOs after being called out by me
I give up
And then when her wagon died she just learned into it* sorry
Tinfoil: If I'm right about Psycho then Chelsea votes for every scum on D1. What if Chelsea wanted to get bussed for town cred from the start of the game and that's why she was so annoyed about switching from Dunn to Athena and then when her wagon she just learned it by only voting Psycho and deciding that whoever gets survives should ride it to endgame.
Nope they were correct, just very weird.
P#3219 is the vote count every time that Psycho/ariadne voted for Chelsea.
P#3220 is every time that Chelsea voted for Psycho/ariadne.
At first glance Chelsea's vote never put ariadne in any danger until D5, but I don't think that counts that as putting her in danger since Chelsea parked and her slot was tied because I voted and not because Chelsea pushed the wagon.
What gives me pause is that Psycho's votes put Chelsea in danger multiple times during D2, and she never voted YOLO, which seems weird. But now that I think about it, it makes sense if Chelsea just wanted to eat the lim and she has acted like that since the start of D3 with things like "Why am I not a wagon today".
I'm way over my 15, be back at around 5, sorry
I think something broke with that votecount, going to try again.
You are implying that the team is Psycho/Logic. Is that what you think?
I'm on my break, going to do a quick summary of my thoughts on Psycho and Chelsea.
@Logic What do you think of the vote order that jumpluff proposed?
Goddamn voice correct lol
Ashley that might not make sense but I'll have to think about it
Nas long as you can lie about who you decide to vote for I'm not voting before you.I just want you to vote Psycho today for the most part and I can focus on that part tomorrow because I'm having trouble myself finding the 'correct' answer.
I still couldn't trust it unless you explain why I'm wrong one of my town reads.
The simple answer is: Yes, it is AI, because scum!you only needs one ML to win the game, and the only way to know if your claim is serious is if after you've voted.
The thing is that if you are aware of what you would and wouldn't do as mafia then you are able to do those things as mafia to deliberately point to them later, so it's NAI or scummy to point to those arguments 9/10.
Another way to look at it is to find the towns until you eliminate who his partner is.
Sorry I realized I forgot to answer. With regards to your NK question the short answer is I was tunneling on Psycho and his widening the PoE requirement.
At the time I was convinced it was Psycho and woopons and he had to get a mislim on one of me, supa or Logic, and the way he pushed on me and then dropped it, I felt like he decided to nk me instead. I'm not counting you because he had already cleared you for no reason, so he had to keep you in his pocket or he'd be losing the game regardless. Keep in mind I was the only one scumreading Psycho, and that Psycho is not an idiot, so if it I was woopons then I was on 3 scum lims and would be tunneling him D6 and making it harder for Psycho to mislim. Psycho would consider the options and if he couldn't mislim me and I was already tunneling him then I had to go in spite of the WIFOM. Conventional logic would say that the only ones who would NK me there would be some world with supa or Logic, but Psycho could present that and go back to relying on wagonomics to case supa and PB. Since no one was considering I was right about Psycho I thought he would go for confusion after the orange kill and rely on WIFOM and case anyone who flipped on him and appeal to the other to mislim. Based on the way you're reacting to the idea it would have been the right choice.
This logic works even better for Chelsea because it would fuel her case on Psycho and make you look at Logic and PB as the same time, and you and Psycho would tin foil about PB and supa without her doing anything.
All of this logic depended on scum!woopons, but hopefully that helps explain my thinking.
In retrospect this would have been a worse strategy than killing Logic or supa and relying on you and the other to believe that it was between me and Chelsea, but I was in a tunnel and assumed that he was trying to ensure his survival which meant he had to get rid of at least one of the tunnels on him. I think that without me to challenge him he would have been able win you over on at least Chelsea if not supa or Logic, but then he would probably lose to you and whoever survived to F3, but it was still a possibility, or so I thought at the time.
I tend to think like this every phase and assume I am right until I am not, but it's hard to argue with kills like supa after the fact even if I think I am the best option the night before.
I made a snap decision that whatever his reasons, woopons was scummy, and there was no way I'd go for 1/3 chance of town when I could get 100% chance of woopons instead. I thought that there was no way town would do that, at least not with minutes to eod. Apparently I was right because I turned out to be right because woopons didn't realize he was putting it three ways. I would probably have voted him earlier if it wouldn't have put him at L-1 because I thought it was him no matter who else it was and he was the smarter play to keep us out of lylo.In what worlds (I mean this literally) did you see yourself getting NKed? I could only see supa or Psycho dying last night and the latter only in weird worldssince ive decided to commit suicide by fatigue may as well answer this
i had 15 minutes starting around 7:40 and already had some quotes pulled up that cut off on lunch, i thought i had time to respond to and leave a legacy but i underestimated the time
i didn't change my vote earlier because the way i saw it was either going to be psycho or woopons and if I voted it would put woopons at L-1
i don't place much value in living in the thread when im for both wagons but as soon as i finished my post i refreshed and woopons had made a 3 way tie so there wasn't anything to reply to do but vote lol
Technically speaking you should have been for all three wagons yesterday iirc unless you abandoned your Chelsea / woopons solve which is awkward and iirc something I complained about wrt you. Did you not wonder how I (and Logic I suppose) would vote?
I am okay with that priority but want to hear what Logic has to say before anything is decided
the biggest problem with serenes is the bs search engine. even if you could search by thread with author (you can't), and even if it did show full posts in results (it doesn't), it requires you to enter a search term. so you can't get posts without that term
I made an extension to do this for you, but in that specific game, it's going to be... very slow.
better than nothing though
https://gist.github.com/Makaze/e4c7f...6043e2eae553b5
since ive decided to commit suicide by fatigue may as well answer this
i had 15 minutes starting around 7:40 and already had some quotes pulled up that cut off on lunch, i thought i had time to respond to and leave a legacy but i underestimated the time
i didn't change my vote earlier because the way i saw it was either going to be psycho or woopons and if I voted it would put woopons at L-1
i don't place much value in living in the thread when im for both wagons but as soon as i finished my post i refreshed and woopons had made a 3 way tie so there wasn't anything to reply to do but vote lol
just noticed that both of them said they'd vote 24 hours in, but one said 1 day left and one said 24 hours in
what does it mean
This logic probably better than sheeping
holy $%#! it is 6am
goodnight
I may not be coherent today
back to this
Probably have the scummiest person vote first to avoid sniping
A part of me wants to unironically sheep Logic since we town read him
I'm more sure about him than you anyway
I lied I can't sleep
Thought: If I'm right, then from a logic standpoint I think there's a strategic element behind Chelsea tunneling Psycho and not expanding on his partners. What makes this work Psycho has made an argument that we should save Chelsea for the final phase and lim me instead, so that all of the reasons she is suspicious should be transferred to me instead of Chelsea, since I'm the only who works with her (in his argument).
The more that I think about it, the longer that Chelsea doesn't just vote Psycho, the stronger the suspicion of her grows. If he can convince at least one person that I'm the better option, then that suspicion of her gets turned into a vote on me instead of her. All he needs to do is wait for a single vote from you or Logic, and Chelsea can hammer. I might be giving them too much credit though.
On that note, I can't see why town!Psycho is so opposed to waiting. He seems more worried that other people's minds will change than that that his will, which is a scummy sentiment. If someone says to another player "I think you are town but I want to make lock in a decision before we can change our minds", I don't see that isn't at least manipulative if not outright scummy. If he knows my work schedule (which I've said a couple of times) then I think it's possible he is trying to rush town's decision while I'm not around.
I feel like most of your problems with me can be chalked up to I'm weird
drive by post before sleep but that me voting one place and casing another is classic me and I discussed this with magnificence in d1. ive improved on that since the game i linked because when the person i case is already the main wagon i'm making it easier for others to fly under the radar by only talking one person per day phase. the strategy is that i want to push lim pressure on one scum read but put argument pressure on another, i do not think this is bad and it works in general because the goal is to generate content on others not to make myself look good. you can see that in the game i posted too, though i actually got some of my lims that game
Let me preface this by saying that I am aware of how insane my logic can get to those who don't know me, but this really is just how I play. I lean into my confidence to create content, and the best way to see if I am wrong is to pretend that I am right and see what happens instead of waffling. I firmly believe that there isn't a reason for public waffling except to show my process, which I don't think matters except in situations where content is irrelevant, such as lylo. I take the same tactic in life, where evaluate my chances and then pick the best option no matter how bad it is and assume it will win, because my chances aren't better for doubting myself and I would prefer to adapt or find out immediately instead of stagnate in indecision. What this means is I really am just this confident, and I'd much rather push my current world as 100% and be wrong than accept the reality of 30% and be manipulated. If I find out I'm wrong then I can be just as confident in my next idea, until I win or lose, and get better each time.
I am not proud of this on some occasions because it has lost me some games, but I've been able to fix some problems with it by shocking myself out of it, like when I tunneled Shinori and Sully because it reminded me of how I lost a game by tunneling for pretty much the exact same things.
If you read https://forums.serenesforest.net/ind...all-game-over/ you'll see what I mean, and I'm confident you'll see that I'm town if you do.
It's now 2AM and I am having trouble thinking, but I ran into a problem, where something just doesn't add up, and I'm having to re-evaluate my options. I went into this thinking that the only team it couldn't be was Chelsea/Psycho, which meant it was either one of Chelsea/jumpluff, Psycho/jumpluff, Psycho/Logic, Chelsea/Logic, or jumpluff/Logic. By the math it was jumpluff just from the options, and Logic isn't scum unless my whole game is wrong, and I can't consider that. So I read jumpluff.
I expected to see the same thing I saw with Psycho, which was an unwarranted town read on the other that was mostly implied, and I searched ria/psycho, but I found out the opposite. I have to give jumpluff some praise because I have not my confbias broken quite this hard. Either jumpluff is the best player at faking tone and progression I have ever seen, or she is just town, and is mindmelding but at the same time actually considering Psycho.
I can't even imagine a more ridiculous tone changing than going from Sully in P#1578 and P#1584 to what jumpluff is now. I am floored. I still have some questions about why Sully would lie about trying to scumhunt when he actually wanted to self-pres, and I think that is legitimately scummy, but I'm willing to take my lesson from the game that I linked and trust my jump read.
Both jumpluff/Chelsea and jumpluff/Logic seemed less possible, although they're not ruled out.
After being shocked out of my tunnel vision I decided that instead of finding mafia I should be trying to find the town, so I reread PB.
He did town read both ari and Chelsea on D1, and doesn't revisit ariadne except in passing. He started scumreading Chelsea on D2 because of her still believing that Dunn was scum despite an un-CC'd doc claim (not counting woopons) and then he pretty dropped it D3. So there's an argument of him/Chelsea, but I think you could also explain that from him not being around like most of his content. The main thing is that even after I was looking for tonal pings I still don't get the same weird feeling I got from him in Champs Season 2, and I don't get a bad feeling from Logic either. I still think he's town, especially for PB.
That leaves me with Psycho/Chelsea hard bussing the whole game. I am going to feel very stupid if I am wrong, but I'm beginning to see some logic behind the entire scum team bussing D1 and it explaining why her wim was so low, why it was so hard to lim Chelsea, and why I felt like Psycho was deliberately avoiding her lim for most of yesterday.
@jumpluff Can you read my arguments from eod again? I still think that Psycho cleared you too early and for a bad reason and that you mindmelded because he got into your head instead of an actual mindmeld. I'll write more on this but I'd like to see if you can consider what I've already written if possible.
I might have gotten the order wrong or missed something obvious but it's 4AM, so I'll start properly casing and responding tomorrow.
I wasn't going to bring him to L-1 but that is different
##Vote primordial woopons
Originally Posted by supa2
