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  1. Replies
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    Completed Also Voxx goat

    Also
    Voxx goat
  2. Replies
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    76,506

    Completed Gg

  3. Postgame#51672

    Thread: Anniversary 2020

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    51,829
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    203,200

    Completed I was very much the #3 in the group and it was...

    Quote Originally Posted by Mantichora (#51652)
    Quote Originally Posted by Underking (#51651)
    Modrant?
    I never want to host anni ever again
    I was very much the #3 in the group and it was exhausting for me. Can’t even imagine how brutal it was for manti and bear. Amazing hosting work by those two.
  4. Postgame#51564

    Thread: Anniversary 2020

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    51,829
    Views
    203,200

    Completed Gg Just an incredible effort from mid and late...

    Gg

    Just an incredible effort from mid and late game wolf team to turn it around. Amazing WIM and effectiveness.
  5. Replies
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    51,239

    Completed Gg RIP spec chat boq tunnel We shall miss you...

    Gg

    RIP spec chat boq tunnel
    We shall miss you
  6. Replies
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    60,109

    Completed What if I said ... that we still were (just as...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jackofhearts2005 (#6397)
    Quote Originally Posted by nutella (#6383)
    All of specchat was sold on Jack wolf for like the whole game lol.


    I thought at least the last day ya’ll would be cheering me on.
    What if I said
    ...
    that we still were (just as a wolf)
  7. Replies
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    Completed I refuse to believe modbot. The team was jack...

    I refuse to believe modbot. The team was jack and Tim trolling the thread for an easy f3

    HEE HOOOOOO!
  8. Replies
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    Completed Gg was fun to watch

    Gg was fun to watch
  9. Replies
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    Completed INCREDIBLE town performance, fantastic job to all...

    INCREDIBLE town performance, fantastic job to all involved!
  10. Strategy It’s like duplicate bridge but a poker version....

    It’s like duplicate bridge but a poker version. Tentatively /in
  11. Replies
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAsp4rn9QnM :p ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Shad (#51)
    Quote Originally Posted by bearsquared (#49)
    Kugane (Day) (FF14, new entry)
    You're Not Alone! (FF9, new entry)
    You can't pick both friendo :P



    When is rd 1 deadline btw? I suspect I’ll skip to rd 2 but not certain...
  12. Replies
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    Completed Or did you... :p:think:

    Quote Originally Posted by Lissa (#2415)
    starting in like 5 min

    and yes i meant today goddamnit thingy
    Or did you...
  13. Replies
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    Completed Montmorency My work computer now blocks MU and...

    @Montmorency

    My work computer now blocks MU and I find this to be PROFOUNDLY annoying, so I guess welcome to slank city on all sorts of things until/unless I make a laptop+monitor setup for a non work computer and put it next to my monitors on my home desk. So like, not never, but not in the immediate future (in related news, the earliest Strange Journey has any chance of starting is now 7/1 lol)

    I can't really speak for what everyone else in the hood would have done, as you saw from the hood link, it was mostly me yakking and like half the group hadn't checked in at all yet

    My orders intention was for me to use ranged weapon on the two zombiedogs in B13, and since my understanding was that dogs were 3 hp, AND that the special zombies (which they were i believe) did NOT get saving throws, I could realistically expect to kill at least one of the two. I had 2 shots per round, 2 damage each, accuracy -1, so we're talking about around 50% to hit both shots and get free first strike kill
    (oh right, the OTHER reason i figured they had 3 hp was that one of them got sniped and, by flavor, died to a single sniper shot previously)

    The bigger issue for that group was the stack of crimsonheads, so probably that's where sniper support was best focused

    The secondary issue was the fact that you hid despite us chatting a while about how important it was to search instead of hide. That, plus the fact that your group trusted jaleb for no particular reason that I could understand, gave me a pretty skeptical attitude towards your plans in general (i.e. i'd go along if it was in my interest, but i wasn't especially inclined to think it was a good idea just b/c you would have suggested it) (also, fwiw, with a search score of 4, you were around a coin flip to have seen ninjacow hiding on move 5 if you had chosen to search, though i would not have known that at the time, since I'd been under the mistaken impression the bugs were all carrying hide scores of like 10+) (among other things, shadow/dya and I had search of 10-11 and MISSED most of our search checks against them hiding, AND chris had search of 10 and, as far as we knew, missed all of HIS search checks [when in fact what actually happened was that on turn 8 he just didn't bother to take the free snipe of the hidden bug ] )
    (also, you outright expecting an ambush of hidden bugs, factoring that into your plan, and then actively choosing not to search, in lieu of a hide bonus that went away the second you unhid, i.e. a completely wasted move, would not have given me sunshiney feelings - though i guess the free stuff we got helped to overcome my feelings there )

    But the CRITICAL issue with the plan about what you and chox were to do was... Jaleb. Assuming that I ended up spilling the beans about him (or at least giving you a "well MAYBE he's a serial killer" compromise bit), a much more sensible order set would have been to write a conditional order to attack anyone on the hospital grounds who attacks a bunch of other people there (I presume that it would be realistic to submit orders to pizza that got to the point of it, even if there needed to be some back and forths)
    ALSO, if you're sniping anyone, you're not doing antyhing else, so you'd have been unable to help against hidden bugs (though I do agree that some clause of helping us would um... help )

    I also don't think it's any kind of realistic to get a group of villagers already in combat to yolo snipe gigante. My presumption is they would be taking some meaningful damage, and fighting gigante isn't QUITE a death sentence, but it's super dangerous even at full health, much less at "low health due to zombie combat". I think I'd have argued hard against that one, and I seriously doubt any of the new crew would have been willing to take that kind of risk for the sake of someone they just met.
  14. #71

    Thread: Corrupt a Wish

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
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    9,175

    you can now fly AND get superpowers. ...

    you can now fly AND get superpowers. Unfortunately you die when exposed to any green object.

    I wish for a working copy of the PS5 along with working copies of all games that will be released for it later this year.
  15. #69

    Thread: Corrupt a Wish

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    73
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    9,175

    You enjoy your eggnog, but the alcohol inside of...

    You enjoy your eggnog, but the alcohol inside of it forces to...
    GO TO SLEEP!!!



    I wish for a donut
  16. #67

    Thread: Corrupt a Wish

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    73
    Views
    9,175

    You inherit an equal share of MU’s operating...

    You inherit an equal share of MU’s operating debt, and declare bankruptcy.

    I wish for more wishes.
  17. #64

    Thread: Corrupt a Wish

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    73
    Views
    9,175

    MU gains self awareness and, thanks to its...

    MU gains self awareness and, thanks to its immortality, enslaves the human race, FOREVER

    I wish for my predictions to never be wrong.
  18. #32

    Thread: Balanced setups

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    60
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    821

    Oh yeah, well in that case it’s just a “lol too...

    Quote Originally Posted by Klopp (#31)
    Ooh, I see another difference then, our miller doesn't know he's a miller.
    Oh yeah, well in that case it’s just a “lol too bad so sad” thing I guess.
  19. #30

    Thread: Balanced setups

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    60
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    821

    As far as I’m concerned, a miller who doesn’t...

    As far as I’m concerned, a miller who doesn’t claim d1 deserves whatever he gets.
  20. Some amusing examples ...

  21. #27

    Thread: Balanced setups

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    60
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    821

    For MU, I would actually be extremely...

    Quote Originally Posted by Klopp (#17)
    Thank you for all the answers.

    The issue is that we don't have a locked number of players before the game is played, we make sign-ups and depending on how many players participate I decide the number of wolves and the PRs.

    For example now we're playing a game with 21 players, 5 scum, 1 cop, 1 vengeful (town-sided) vs Godfather and roleblocker (mafia).

    How balanced would you say it is? I think it's a bit scum-sided, however our comunnity needs a bit scum-sided setups as we know each other VERY well and playing scum is a big challenge for some of the players.
    For MU, I would actually be extremely uncomfortable with this setup, even as an open. POG stats (I think the link is now dead but it USED to exist) showed n0 cop “vanilla” setups getting increasingly wolfsided as the numbers increased; iirc 16/5 was in the 40-45% town win range.

    On top of THAT structure, you’re introducing two different objectively useful scum counters to the cop - godfather obviously can win a game by itself AND can be used to POE down a cop role, AND can be used to bury a fake green check on a buddy. Roleblocker can further POE down the cop role, as you can block any “might be a cop, might be mislynchable” role and then just see where the chips fall (plus a decent # of vanillagers who think they’re being seery might yolo guess Roleblocked, which can really help to narrow down the cop POE).

    If I balance that by making the most generous interpretation of vengeful (kills whoever killed h8m at night, cannot be roleblocked, as opposed to just a “picks a target to kill if lynched or shot”), it’s still substantially wolfsided by MU norms, especially because that only brings game to evens, which dampens the usefulness of the shot (kills a wolf but does NOT buy an extra mislynch)

    It might still be balanced for your community, but only if your community’s meta is extremely town friendly imo.
  22. #3

    Thread: Balanced setups

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    60
    Views
    821

    For better and worse, setup balance tends to...

    For better and worse, setup balance tends to WILDLY vary by community. The MS wiki is a starting point, but you may well have different (or MUCH different) balancing norms than MS. Sorry there isn’t necessarily an easy cut and dry answer here.
  23. What is your favorite internet meme?

    What is your favorite internet meme?
  24. Replies
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    Completed Oh you ain’t seen nothing yet on the archiving...

    Oh you ain’t seen nothing yet on the archiving stuff, what I shared is just like step one, after that is actually COMMENTING on things, which will be a meaningful time commitment I’d guess.

    I actually don’t recall the details of the plan anymore, but I’ll go and relook at stuff. MAYBE this weekend if I’m not stuck working, but we shall see...
  25. Step 1: Rand Wolf Step 2: Realize the playerlist...

    The Ten Worst Mislynches in Champs History and How to Avoid Them
    Step 1: Rand Wolf
    Step 2: Realize the playerlist is actually competent
    Step 3: Die a little more inside
  26. Apoc done, and i removed all the white text...

    @Apoc
    done, and i removed all the white text stuff so the headers are actually readable as well
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    This is a piece of an article I have been passively working on for quite a few years. I am posting it here to (hopefully) get feedback. If there are things I have left out that you feel should be included, things that are poorly explained, things you feel are flat out wrong, or any other criticism that comes to mind I would love to hear your thoughts.

    II. Fundamentals of Scum Hunting

    1. Intro
    One of the biggest misconceptions about scum hunting is that there is a ‘right’ or ‘most effective’ way to do it. What works for someone else may not work for you at all. With this in mind its all about finding what works for you. -But- There are some basic core differences between the Town and the Mafia that every player should hold as true; how you go about identifying them but it is a very personal journey every player must embark upon. This will outline a large portion of accepted 'Tells' and explain why they are alignment indicative to help assist you in figuring out a strategy for your personal approach to scum hunting.

    2. Types of Tells
    When attempting to divine hidden information people look for ‘tells’ or indicators of alignment. My take on scum hunting is that all real ‘tells’ will draw back to a few very specific but very critical differences between the Mafia and the Town. Below are what I consider the core fundamental differences and some things I consider alignment indicators with reasoning.

    A: Perspective:

    -Core Reasoning:
    • The Town players have to figure out who is on their team or who is their enemy
    • The Mafia players already knows who is and is not on their team, and generally have a good idea of the alignment of the rest of the players
    • The Town players are acting from a genuine and honest perspective
    • The Mafia players have to fake their perspective and deceive the town

    -Perspective Tells:

    Knowledge of Impossible Information(TMI)
    Occasionally you can peg a hard scum slip when a player has some information that should be impossible for them to know. If the player claimed that they are a doctor and somehow knows another players role there is a potential that they received the information from their mafia team. (Think before challenging a player on this as that you could out town power roles in the wrong situation)

    Gap Between Confidence and Reads
    Because they already know the players alignment they have to ‘make up reasoning’ to justify whatever position they take on the player they are talking about. This creates a situation where their conclusion is not based upon their reasoning. This gap can be identified by looking to see if their level of confidence matches their reasoning (Its often easier to identify this gap in their town reads)

    Handing out easy Town credit/reads
    Mafia players naturally have a tendency to throw out town credit with much less reasoning than they do as Town players. This is because there is a tendency to require less information to confirm a held belief than to establish a one. Additionally veteran scum players recognize the natural tendency for players to think along the same lines. The player who just got town read knows they are town and therefor they exercise the same bias when looking to see if the reasoning justified the conclusion. But as a 3rd party townie you can identify this because you do not know that either players alignment (or if your experienced enough and maintain the knowledge that their perspective shouldn’t just be confirming a known alignment you may be able to recognize it being done to you.) You can also factor in buddying/pocketing efforts although it is not the core reason this tell exists in my opinion.

    Town reading those who scum read them (counter to natural OMGUS)
    The natural subconscious reaction to a player accusing you of being scum when you are town is to view them as scum. This is because you know with certainty that you are Town and that if you were to be correctly read it should be identifiable. Your mind catastrophizes the interaction and jumps to the conclusion that the other player must therefore be scum. But this is not true for the Mafia alignment. They know that they are scum and they know that the player accusing them is town. This difference can be identified in the way they respond to pressure; particularly in the early game where a town player would have no significant read on others alignments or in the later game when the player has expressed they read the player accusing them as scum prior to the interaction. If their defense does not come from a perspective that you would identify as questioning their accusers alignment and they have not expressed a belief that the accusing player is town you should take notice. (This is more effective on newer players who’s reaction to pressure is less guided by experience, particularly if their meta has a ‘everyone is guilty until proven innocent’ nature to it.)

    Disassociated Presentation
    This is a commonly known indicator that is created as a result of the scum player not speaking from their own perspective. Scum players will consciously consider how a town player would say what they are looking to say and unintentionally slip, speaking from the perspective they are thinking from. This is easily noticeable when words such as ‘They, you, your’ are used in place of ‘I, My, Me.’

    Lack of Natural flow to speech
    This is also a result of the scum player not speaking from their own perspective. The information they are communicating is transformed from their perspective to the perspective they are presenting from. You may notice that the communication is just kind of awkward or out of place. Maybe there’s broken thought processes or some things just don’t quite connect in a normal way. Regardless it’s a red flag you should take notice of.

    Lack of consistency
    This is a pretty strong indicator that reflects a disconnect between what the player says and what they do. Town players are generally consistent because their actions come from an honest place. If they scum read a player they will be willing or even eager to lynch them; or if they town read a player they may make an effort to defend them. For scum it is much more difficult. They have to keep track of all the fake positions they take and stick with those positions. I don’t think I have ever read through a game and not found at least some inconsistency’s in a scum player. Some of it is a result of evolving conditions such as being forced to choose between a player they voiced that they read as town and their scum team mate. In those situations you can often see a gap between the voiced reasoning for them changing their perspective and what would be natural. Scum players also slip sometimes by forgetting what position they took earlier.

    Neutral Hunting
    This occurs when a team scum specifically hunts for a neutral killing. Many players do it because the neutral really is a threat to them but also because it gives them something to genuinely hunt. They no longer have to fake reads or worry about speaking from a perspective that is not their own and can act somewhat naturally; but this can also be identified if you notice the player is very specifically jumping to the conclusion that their read indicates a neutral. The natural perspective on a read would be that the player is some kind of evil or even not town making this a decent tell.

    Freezing
    This is more specific to turbos or EOD when chat is fast paced but scum can often freeze up in response to pressure. A scum called out on a slip may need some time to figure out how he can justify his slip while a town needs no time to think and can simply be honest.

    Flailing
    Because scum have to make up their reads / reasoning they can be caught in a slip. Once caught they will have to justify their position which can result in flailing. You may notice them constantly adjusting their warrant or grounds saying that you do not understand or even adjusting their initial claim. This can often be identified by breaking down their argument. If they change their claim check their warrant to see if it supports the adjusted claim. This can also occur when they have taken a position with a lack of reasoning and are later forced to justify that position and fail to do so in a way that appears natural.

    B: Intention:

    -Core Reasoning:
    • The Town players objective is to figure out who is on their team or who their enemy is and eliminate those players
    • The Mafia players objective is to avoid being identified/lynched, keep their team mates from being identified/lynched.
    • The Mafia has no obligation to do anything but survive the day cycle until night so they can kill another player.

    -Intention Tells:

    Focus on Self Preservation
    This is both extremely common as well as easy to identify. Scum players core motivation is to stay alive while towns is to eliminate scum- even if it means sacrificing themselves. You can often identify this behavior by looking at the players focus as pressure builds (especially if its nearing the end of the day and they recognize they could very easily be on the chopping block.) Experienced town players will generally focus on forwarding their win condition even if it means their death. They may do things like push their reads with the knowledge that their demise will reveal their role, making their words come from a ‘confirmed town’ and recognizing that they will be taken more seriously. You will also see experienced players scum hunt while they are defending reflecting that their focus is not exclusively on ‘staying alive.’ In contrast scum players (especially inexperienced ones) will only say and do things in an attempt to avoid the lynch. If they feel that they have been had they will sometimes just completely shut down and stop interacting all together.

    Lack of Scum Hunting
    Novice scum can often make the mistake of not pretending to solve the game. This can be a reflection of there being no motivation for the player to identify scum because they have no need to. Look for players who pop in and seem to kind of 'hang out' / interact as if waiting for someone to give them something to do.

    Information Instead of Analysis (IIOA)
    Similar to a lack of scum hunting some scum players will spend time and effort organizing information instead of analyzing information. This allows them to show effort with a focus on reducing entropy while also shifting information, perspective, and avoiding many of the tells that come with scum hunting. Favoring information will always be a pattern for deductive scum hunters especially in the PR setups hosted here but a lack of inductive reasoning should be a red flag.

    Hyperawareness of others perception of them
    Scum players are naturally hyperaware of how others view them. Everything they post can be taken from the mindset of ‘how will the town view this’ and they take special note when others voice concerns about them. This can sometimes come out as unnatural jumps to address any issue raised about them and can also be reflected in the way they speak about themselves.

    Intent to lynch
    Because scum players want to eliminate players with little consideration to who they can often be too opportunistic. They also have incentive to avoid voting on a scum team mate and will instead have motivation to be on the counter wagon. This action pays off for them well if the lynch is avoided in that they can not even be seen doing it unless it fails. These behaviors are most easily identified with wagonomics although a lynch-happy attitude can sometimes be identified.

    Focus on 1 player
    Some scum just peg 1 player to scum read. This allows them to appear as if they are attempting to solve the game while also not dealing with the natural counter push / OMGUS that comes when you scum read a town. I most easily seen this in low activity scum.

    Pillow Pushing
    I often see scum players pushing on a player until the first moment of resistance arises and then dropping the issue. This happens because their intention was never to push the player but rather to be seen pushing the player and when they are pressured on it they have no reasoning to create conviction as well as little motivation to draw attention to themselves. This also happens when some scum try to bus.

    Mirroring
    Because scum players have to fake their scum hunting they often take cues from the town players reads. Novice/Lazy scum will often just grab the general positioning of read walls and present them as their own or just regurgitate what the rest of the town has voiced when asked for an opinion. This is easy to identify if your active enough to really understand the gamestate and much more incriminating as the game progresses. If you notice a player is not generating original thought step back and in-context iso them to check for this behavior.

    C: Association:

    -Core Reasoning:
    • The Mafia players have a known Team that they can work with and a shared chat to coordinate activities
    • The Town players usually have no team they coordinate with
    • The Mafia Players have a vested interest in keeping their team mates alive

    -Association Tells:

    Building a counter-train
    Experienced scum players will sometimes deflate the pressure on their team mates by instigating pressure on another player to distract from the situation. This generally works well and is difficult to nail down until the mid-end game where a pattern of it occurring can be identified but is something that can be noticed and bring up the question of if you should look closer into this players associations, especially in post flip analysis.

    Coordinated actions
    Good Mafia teams will use their special chat to coordinate some basic outlines of intentions. Things like which players to focus on lynching are often established prior to the day starting. Fortunately for the town these types of coordinated actions can become identifiable after enough time has progressed. Vote pattern analysis can also point to this.

    Unnatural interactions(Puppet Show)
    Anyone who has ever taken a theater class has seen some really terrible acting that is so awkward, it makes you feel awkward just watching it. Thats the kind of feeling I can get when watching 2 scum play out some rehearsed interaction.

    Aversion
    What a player does not say is sometimes more important to notice than what they do. You will can notice scum players intentionally avoiding situations or discussions because they would be very uncomfortable to deal with. Examples could range from someone bringing up analysis of the votes in a lynch or maybe the entire train on one of their scum team mates. They may not want to get their scum buddy lynched but more than that they really don’t want to be associated with trying to prevent him from being lynched so they just avoid the situation entirely. This aversion is difficult to notice in the moment but can more easily be identified as the game progresses. I personally find aversion to be much more common than coordination and very particularly am critical of a Power Wolf who has massive interactions and reads yet strangely avoids talking to or about a few players. I believe this aversion comes from being forced to either bus or make up a fake read that ties them together when reading a team mate.

    IronMan
    Ironman is the opposite of strawman in terms of presenting someones argument. Teamscum will sometimes present their team mates defense as stronger than it is when speaking about their thoughts on that players case. This allows a strong speaker or a townread speaker to deflate pressure on a team mate and can be noticed by comparing the discussed players argument with the teamscums and identifying creative contributions to the original defense.

    3. Conclusion

    You should consider the implications of the setup on how you scum hunt. If the setup changes a core reason for a scum hunting tell you should take time to consider how that must change the way you scum hunt.

    Above all else you need to honestly evaluate your own play to figure out what works for you. If you dont reread your games you will be prone to bias in what you think works for you. This often results in players using techniques that just do not work for them and can really submarine their impact on games. Practice only helps you improve if you are able to recognize your mistakes so you can learn from them.

    I am not going to say that this list includes every tell but I will say that I believe any scum hunting tell should draw back to a core difference. If yours do not you may want to reconsider it. Even if you disagree with how I look at scum hunting I believe you should be able to justify the tells you use to others, so that you can push lynches. If your position is not tenable you may be doing something very wrong.
  27. Some more thoughts on various pieces of the...

    Some more thoughts on various pieces of the article (spoilering b/c lengthy)

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    …One of the biggest misconceptions about scum hunting is that there is a ‘right’ or ‘most effective’ way to do it. What works for someone else may not work for you at all. With this in mind its all about finding what works for you. -But- There are some basic core differences between the Town and the Mafia that every player should hold as true; how you go about identifying them but it is a very personal journey every player must embark upon..
    I agree w/ this
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    2. Types of Tells
    When attempting to divine hidden information people look for ‘tells’ or indicators of alignment. My take on scum hunting is that all real ‘tells’ will draw back to a few very specific but very critical differences between the Mafia and the Town. Below are what I consider the core fundamental differences and some things I consider alignment indicators with reasoning.

    A: Perspective:
    -Core Reasoning:
    • The Town players have to figure out who is on their team or who is their enemy
    • The Mafia players already knows who is and is not on their team, and generally have a good idea of the alignment of the rest of the players
    • The Town players are acting from a genuine and honest perspective
    • The Mafia players have to fake their perspective and deceive the town
    I agree w/ this
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    -Perspective Tells:
    Knowledge of Impossible Information(TMI)
    Occasionally you can peg a hard scum slip when a player has some information that should be impossible for them to know. If the player claimed that they are a doctor and somehow knows another players role there is a potential that they received the information from their mafia team. (Think before challenging a player on this as that you could out town power roles in the wrong situation)
    I disagree w/ this; mafia are generally likelier to be careful w/ what they’re saying. In my entire career I can think of a single legitimate “scum slip”, and even that was the weirder situation where a wolf was unaware of a piece of information that the TOWN had bright and center in their role pms (and that was just because he didn’t bother reading the game rules lol)
    Most “scum slips” are actually town slips, because town is incautious about speculating and thinking out loud, and if you’re looking for “slips” it’s easy to see it as TMI when in fact it is not

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Gap Between Confidence and Reads
    Because they already know the players alignment they have to ‘make up reasoning’ to justify whatever position they take on the player they are talking about. This creates a situation where their conclusion is not based upon their reasoning. This gap can be identified by looking to see if their level of confidence matches their reasoning (Its often easier to identify this gap in their town reads)
    Sometimes, though many townies have sloppy processes that are unexplained and not even fully thought through on their own end. This feels like more of a “bad play” tell than a true AI tell.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Handing out easy Town credit/reads
    Mafia players naturally have a tendency to throw out town credit with much less reasoning than they do as Town players. This is because there is a tendency to require less information to confirm a held belief than to establish a one. Additionally veteran scum players recognize the natural tendency for players to think along the same lines. The player who just got town read knows they are town and therefor they exercise the same bias when looking to see if the reasoning justified the conclusion. But as a 3rd party townie you can identify this because you do not know that either players alignment (or if your experienced enough and maintain the knowledge that their perspective shouldn’t just be confirming a known alignment you may be able to recognize it being done to you.) You can also factor in buddying/pocketing efforts although it is not the core reason this tell exists in my opinion.
    I’m not sure I agree w/ this. I think it’s fairly null to give out easy/lazy town credit, though I can certainly be persuaded otherwise.
    What I *DO* think can be AI is when people give out town credit for things that aren’t legitimately town-indicative but SEEM like they’re town-indicative when you’re not putting actual thought into it. Surface-level villagery-looking stuff, for instance, where an actual villager might be paranoid about it being faked, but a wolf just blazes through and says it’s town because they’re not actually trying to think about alignment.
    Note that this can run counter to the fact that some people have lazy or crappy tells that they lean on when they’re solving for real, and it can sometimes be difficult to tease out “oh this person is just being lol” from “this person has TMI”
    Perhaps paradoxically, this sort of thing can be a bit easier to wrap your head around when dealing with a relatively competent player, because you can more easily get into the space of “well If they were town, they just wouldn’t be doing this”


    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Town reading those who scum read them (counter to natural OMGUS)
    The natural subconscious reaction to a player accusing you of being scum when you are town is to view them as scum. This is because you know with certainty that you are Town and that if you were to be correctly read it should be identifiable. Your mind catastrophizes the interaction and jumps to the conclusion that the other player must therefore be scum. But this is not true for the Mafia alignment. They know that they are scum and they know that the player accusing them is town. This difference can be identified in the way they respond to pressure; particularly in the early game where a town player would have no significant read on others alignments or in the later game when the player has expressed they read the player accusing them as scum prior to the interaction. If their defense does not come from a perspective that you would identify as questioning their accusers alignment and they have not expressed a belief that the accusing player is town you should take notice. (This is more effective on newer players who’s reaction to pressure is less guided by experience, particularly if their meta has a ‘everyone is guilty until proven innocent’ nature to it.)
    Paging @beruru on aisle five

    The joke here is that beru has a tendency to town read the people who push them and wolf read the people defending them
    I don’t think beru is alone in this

    I sort of think this is a valid tell for some people, but think it belongs more in the meta category of understanding the process a particular player is likely ot have as town and whether that fits behavior here. I’m skeptical it’s meaningfully AI over an entire population

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Disassociated Presentation
    This is a commonly known indicator that is created as a result of the scum player not speaking from their own perspective. Scum players will consciously consider how a town player would say what they are looking to say and unintentionally slip, speaking from the perspective they are thinking from. This is easily noticeable when words such as ‘They, you, your’ are used in place of ‘I, My, Me.’
    … maybe? This feels like more of a newbscum tell than anything else, though I certainly could be wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Lack of Natural flow to speech
    This is also a result of the scum player not speaking from their own perspective. The information they are communicating is transformed from their perspective to the perspective they are presenting from. You may notice that the communication is just kind of awkward or out of place. Maybe there’s broken thought processes or some things just don’t quite connect in a normal way. Regardless it’s a red flag you should take notice of.
    I agree w/ this. I like the following as a good example:

    Quote Originally Posted by Soah
    Spiff was doing stuff that you just don't see wolves actually do -- claiming a PR with still 24 hours remaining on d1 and openly antagonizing the people pushing him the hardest, rather than just slink away and wait for a shiny object to appear that drags the votes away from him



    Cron was working super hard at developing his reads and he had the proper emotional investment in what he was doing. I don't feel like pulling up his posts to cite specific examples, so let's just talk again about the Trundle thing. He soulreads a guy as a wolf based on one post and has four reasons for it, and he's super proud of himself and patting himself on the back for it. Wolves aren't trying that hard to develop quick reads and they tend to struggle to come up with that level of insight and they aren't good at getting the subtle emotions right. And his whole day was full of things like that. Cron has played several wolf games on this site and his posting was bland and forgettable each time.



    I don't have time to adequately respond to that post but one thing I can say quickly is that when I'm talking about emotions, I'm specifically excluding anger. It's the easiest emotion to fake and it's one that is often not alignment-indicative even when it is genuine, unless it can be traced to an origin in something distinctly villagery.

    Emotions like pride, paranoia, surprise, suspicion, etc, are more difficult to fake. Wolves often fail to even identify spots in which emotion should be present in their posting, and their efforts at actually displaying more complex emotions are often quite clumsy, for example by stating their supposed feelings rather than displaying them.

    But in the case of Cron, a lot of what was clearing for him was just the sheer depth and breadth of his reads and interactions. It's just hard to fake that much content so quickly and make it sound good. And few wolves are ever going to stalk other players' online statuses in order to catch lurkers.
    Smith Inserts the Relevant Cron Quotes
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by Trundle
    Well, here we go again. I'm glad there is not 100 pages in the first hour.

    Based on post count alone and higher aggression, different tone in his lost, Emberguard is very likely town.
    I agree with the ember read but your first post this game does not impress me like it did in Transformers.

    If trundle flips mafia, consider ember town.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by LordJvK
    Cron, one little wolf tell I've picked up on over time is how a lot of them vote for a bro very early. It's long-game cover and anti-spew, but you'd be alarmed at how many wolves vote for a wolf as their very first action in any given game.
    I think it's more likely that mafia just gave an easy read (ember acting very differently this game) as a spew than they're both mafia.

    And yes I think trundle is mafia.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by champ2947
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by LordJvK
    Cron, one little wolf tell I've picked up on over time is how a lot of them vote for a bro very early. It's long-game cover and anti-spew, but you'd be alarmed at how many wolves vote for a wolf as their very first action in any given game.
    I think it's more likely that mafia just gave an easy read (ember acting very differently this game) as a spew than they're both mafia.

    And yes I think trundle is mafia.
    Off one post?
    Yep. Get on my level.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Why trundle is mafia based on 1 post:

    1. Relieved there isn't a flood of posts to read yet gives hardly any content.
    2. Only gives an easy tone read on ember, easy to fake as mafia.
    3. Content is very lacking compared to his town game in transformers
    4. Still has yet to respond to me calling him mafia.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by Trundle
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Why trundle is mafia based on 1 post:

    1. Relieved there isn't a flood of posts to read yet gives hardly any content.
    2. Only gives an easy tone read on ember, easy to fake as mafia.
    3. Content is very lacking compared to his town game in transformers
    4. Still has yet to respond to me calling him mafia.
    Reasonable, but I disagree.
    1. I'm in Computer Science and there are exams right now. I don't have time for an overly busy game like Transformers. I figured this one would be less busy simply do to what happened last game. This is why I am relieved. Also, do to the fact that there isn't all the much content yet, I did not have much to go off of, but I did give a read which is more than nearly anyone else had done so far.
    2. Any town reading another town as town is easy to fake as mafia reading a town as town.
    3. What content? It was my first post of the game and I was just checking in.
    4. I was offline.

    It seems to me that you're just reaction testing me because my post wasn't as long as it was last time. Also, I haven't read the rest of the thread yet, so just give me a second and if anyone else joined bandwagon I'll respond shortly.
    I am reaction testing a bit, and you failed miserably.

    You've been online in MU for 45 minutes, I saw on main page, so saying you were offline until now is a blatant lie.

    Your demeanor is far too calm. Watching you post in dead chat on transformers and post game, the salt levels were off the charts. Yet now in a new game, you're completely mellow and not upset at all with the fact you are being pushed on my multiple people.

    I think this post is very well thought out and carefully constructed, but there's no trace of emotion anywhere. You scrubbed your response to make it sound articulate, but you forgot to add any feeling.

    Trundle should be a wagon today.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    I don't know why you're doubling down on being offline. I saw you online for an extended period of time starting around 10:30 eastern. The reason I remember this is because I was waiting around for your response for 15 minutes and saw you still online during that time.

    Ok great, my accusations are nonsense and distracting town. Do you have any other reads outside of ember?
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by Trundle
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    I don't know why you're doubling down on being offline. I saw you online for an extended period of time starting around 10:30 eastern. The reason I remember this is because I was waiting around for your response for 15 minutes and saw you still online during that time.

    Ok great, my accusations are nonsense and distracting town. Do you have any other reads outside of ember?
    I think Alette's posting is very sketchy, but from last game I just think she always sounds like she is mafia. I have a feeling that most of the mafia have not posted much yet. 3 people have not posted yet, and 4 people are between 1-2 posts. I am very neutral on Revival.
    So three mafia within 0-1 post count, 1 mafia higher post count?

    I feel like you aren't trying to solve the game. Your reads are alette is scummy but she posts scummy so I dunno and revival is null. Why aren't you creating town lists in your head?



    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)


    Lack of consistency
    This is a pretty strong indicator that reflects a disconnect between what the player says and what they do. Town players are generally consistent because their actions come from an honest place. If they scum read a player they will be willing or even eager to lynch them; or if they town read a player they may make an effort to defend them. For scum it is much more difficult. They have to keep track of all the fake positions they take and stick with those positions. I don’t think I have ever read through a game and not found at least some inconsistency’s in a scum player. Some of it is a result of evolving conditions such as being forced to choose between a player they voiced that they read as town and their scum team mate. In those situations you can often see a gap between the voiced reasoning for them changing their perspective and what would be natural. Scum players also slip sometimes by forgetting what position they took earlier.
    I’m with Newcomb here. If anything, consistency is something of a scum tell. Maybe really lazy wolves forget what they were even arguing, but this feels like more of a mislynch tell than anything else *shrugs*

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Neutral Hunting
    This occurs when a team scum specifically hunts for a neutral killing. Many players do it because the neutral really is a threat to them but also because it gives them something to genuinely hunt. They no longer have to fake reads or worry about speaking from a perspective that is not their own and can act somewhat naturally; but this can also be identified if you notice the player is very specifically jumping to the conclusion that their read indicates a neutral. The natural perspective on a read would be that the player is some kind of evil or even not town making this a decent tell.
    Ehhhhh… maybe. I’ve definitely seen it sometimes in mashes, but the only one that really jumps to mind was when a wolf under pressure started screaming about neutrals. And I’m sure that it pops up from townies sometimes (I have a strong recollection of [CORRECTLY] being very concerned about neutrals in anni 2018 and eating a bunch of $%#! from people b/c they thought it was wolfy or something)

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Freezing
    This is more specific to turbos or EOD when chat is fast paced but scum can often freeze up in response to pressure. A scum called out on a slip may need some time to figure out how he can justify his slip while a town needs no time to think and can simply be honest.
    This is probably reasonable, especially for rusty wolves or newer wolves. I think it’s much more of a turbo thing than anything else though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)

    Flailing
    Because scum have to make up their reads / reasoning they can be caught in a slip. Once caught they will have to justify their position which can result in flailing. You may notice them constantly adjusting their warrant or grounds saying that you do not understand or even adjusting their initial claim. This can often be identified by breaking down their argument. If they change their claim check their warrant to see if it supports the adjusted claim. This can also occur when they have taken a position with a lack of reasoning and are later forced to justify that position and fail to do so in a way that appears natural.
    Blatant flailing is probably NAI at worst. Lots of townies flail under pressure. But I do agree that pushing people on their logic and seeing if it holds true, or, if it doesn’t, WHY it doesn’t, can be a useful exercise. But you have to be willing ot have an eye towards sifting bad town from wolves.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    -Core Reasoning:
    • The Town players objective is to figure out who is on their team or who their enemy is and eliminate those players
    • The Mafia players objective is to avoid being identified/lynched, keep their team mates from being identified/lynched.
    • The Mafia has no obligation to do anything but survive the day cycle until night so they can kill another player.
    I agree w/ this
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)


    -Intention Tells:
    Focus on Self Preservation
    This is both extremely common as well as easy to identify. Scum players core motivation is to stay alive while towns is to eliminate scum- even if it means sacrificing themselves. You can often identify this behavior by looking at the players focus as pressure builds (especially if its nearing the end of the day and they recognize they could very easily be on the chopping block.) Experienced town players will generally focus on forwarding their win condition even if it means their death. They may do things like push their reads with the knowledge that their demise will reveal their role, making their words come from a ‘confirmed town’ and recognizing that they will be taken more seriously. You will also see experienced players scum hunt while they are defending reflecting that their focus is not exclusively on ‘staying alive.’ In contrast scum players (especially inexperienced ones) will only say and do things in an attempt to avoid the lynch. If they feel that they have been had they will sometimes just completely shut down and stop interacting all together.
    I somewhat agree with this, but I’ve seen plenty of villagers be hyper defensive and self focused, regardless of whether the situation justifies it. GOOD town play is to be useful and solving even under fire, but bad town play fits the above just as well as wolf play does.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Lack of Scum Hunting
    Novice scum can often make the mistake of not pretending to solve the game. This can be a reflection of there being no motivation for the player to identify scum because they have no need to. Look for players who pop in and seem to kind of 'hang out' / interact as if waiting for someone to give them something to do.
    I agree w/ this, though much more for newbier wolves
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Information Instead of Analysis (IIOA)
    Similar to a lack of scum hunting some scum players will spend time and effort organizing information instead of analyzing information. This allows them to show effort with a focus on reducing entropy while also shifting information, perspective, and avoiding many of the tells that come with scum hunting. Favoring information will always be a pattern for deductive scum hunters especially in the PR setups hosted here but a lack of inductive reasoning should be a red flag.
    Primarily a newbie wolf tell I think, but there’s still some validity to it in general I think.
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Hyperawareness of others perception of them
    Scum players are naturally hyperaware of how others view them. Everything they post can be taken from the mindset of ‘how will the town view this’ and they take special note when others voice concerns about them. This can sometimes come out as unnatural jumps to address any issue raised about them and can also be reflected in the way they speak about themselves.
    This also accurately describes “hyper self aware villager”, “villager who thinks that they’re lynchbait”, “villager who’s tilted by $%#!ty pressure they’ve been eating a lot, in this particular game or a stack of other recent games”, “villager who randed PR”, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Intent to lynch
    Because scum players want to eliminate players with little consideration to who they can often be too opportunistic. They also have incentive to avoid voting on a scum team mate and will instead have motivation to be on the counter wagon. This action pays off for them well if the lynch is avoided in that they can not even be seen doing it unless it fails. These behaviors are most easily identified with wagonomics although a lynch-happy attitude can sometimes be identified.
    Agree w/ this. Opportunistic plays can be easy ways to catch scum sometimes. They can also be a thing to keep an eye out in order to ID situations where you’re busy wagoning a bad-posting villager instead of a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Focus on 1 player
    Some scum just peg 1 player to scum read. This allows them to appear as if they are attempting to solve the game while also not dealing with the natural counter push / OMGUS that comes when you scum read a town. I most easily seen this in low activity scum.
    Sometimes, and yeah I’d probably push this more for newbie or low confidence or low activity wolves.
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Pillow Pushing
    I often see scum players pushing on a player until the first moment of resistance arises and then dropping the issue. This happens because their intention was never to push the player but rather to be seen pushing the player and when they are pressured on it they have no reasoning to create conviction as well as little motivation to draw attention to themselves. This also happens when some scum try to bus.
    I mildly agree w/ this. I think it’s probably not a super common scum tell but IS probably scum-indicative when it pops up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Mirroring
    Because scum players have to fake their scum hunting they often take cues from the town players reads. Novice/Lazy scum will often just grab the general positioning of read walls and present them as their own or just regurgitate what the rest of the town has voiced when asked for an opinion. This is easy to identify if your active enough to really understand the gamestate and much more incriminating as the game progresses. If you notice a player is not generating original thought step back and in-context iso them to check for this behavior.
    I agree w/ this. I think you’re likely to see some level of subtlety about it, but “is this player actually providing any original or interesting content” is a decent tell.
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)

    -Core Reasoning:
    • The Mafia players have a known Team that they can work with and a shared chat to coordinate activities
    • The Town players usually have no team they coordinate with
    • The Mafia Players have a vested interest in keeping their team mates alive
    I agree w/ this
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)

    Building a counter-train
    Experienced scum players will sometimes deflate the pressure on their team mates by instigating pressure on another player to distract from the situation. This generally works well and is difficult to nail down until the mid-end game where a pattern of it occurring can be identified but is something that can be noticed and bring up the question of if you should look closer into this players associations, especially in post flip analysis.
    Sometimes, yes. It’s one of the useful things you can do w/ VCA in mid or late game.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Coordinated actions
    Good Mafia teams will use their special chat to coordinate some basic outlines of intentions. Things like which players to focus on lynching are often established prior to the day starting. Fortunately for the town these types of coordinated actions can become identifiable after enough time has progressed. Vote pattern analysis can also point to this.
    If anything, I think wolves tend somewhat towards distancing rather than bunching up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Unnatural interactions(Puppet Show)
    Anyone who has ever taken a theater class has seen some really terrible acting that is so awkward, it makes you feel awkward just watching it. Thats the kind of feeling I can get when watching 2 scum play out some rehearsed interaction.
    I’d be curious if you have some exmaples of this that particularly stand out

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Aversion
    What a player does not say is sometimes more important to notice than what they do. You will can notice scum players intentionally avoiding situations or discussions because they would be very uncomfortable to deal with. Examples could range from someone bringing up analysis of the votes in a lynch or maybe the entire train on one of their scum team mates. They may not want to get their scum buddy lynched but more than that they really don’t want to be associated with trying to prevent him from being lynched so they just avoid the situation entirely. This aversion is difficult to notice in the moment but can more easily be identified as the game progresses. I personally find aversion to be much more common than coordination and very particularly am critical of a Power Wolf who has massive interactions and reads yet strangely avoids talking to or about a few players. I believe this aversion comes from being forced to either bus or make up a fake read that ties them together when reading a team mate.
    I think this is a decent point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)

    IronMan
    Ironman is the opposite of strawman in terms of presenting someones argument. Teamscum will sometimes present their team mates defense as stronger than it is when speaking about their thoughts on that players case. This allows a strong speaker or a townread speaker to deflate pressure on a team mate and can be noticed by comparing the discussed players argument with the teamscums and identifying creative contributions to the original defense.
    … maybe? Not sure on this one, could be good.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    You should consider the implications of the setup on how you scum hunt. If the setup changes a core reason for a scum hunting tell you should take time to consider how that must change the way you scum hunt.
    I agree w/ this
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    Above all else you need to honestly evaluate your own play to figure out what works for you. If you dont reread your games you will be prone to bias in what you think works for you. This often results in players using techniques that just do not work for them and can really submarine their impact on games. Practice only helps you improve if you are able to recognize your mistakes so you can learn from them.
    I agree w/ this
    Quote Originally Posted by Helz (#1)
    I am not going to say that this list includes every tell but I will say that I believe any scum hunting tell should draw back to a core difference. If yours do not you may want to reconsider it. Even if you disagree with how I look at scum hunting I believe you should be able to justify the tells you use to others, so that you can push lynches. If your position is not tenable you may be doing something very wrong.
    I agree with this.



    Thanks for the post!
  28. Replies
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    Strategy :shifty: ok mastema :p (btw i expect to give...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jackofhearts2005 (#30)
    I'm just going to keep spamming this thread until this becomes a thing and I get to punch god in the face.

    ok mastema

    (btw i expect to give an update REASONABLY soon, it's just that events somewhat outside my control have limited the time I've put into design work over the last month. I'm kind of hoping May is better on that end)
  29. Replies
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    Strategy Thanks for the well wishes :) I've clinched...

    Quote Originally Posted by Apoc (#16)
    Quote Originally Posted by mhsmith0 (#12)
    /spec (idk if there will be a rail chat discord for this one or not)
    Sure why not, we can make one. It won't have any orders on it though?


    I figured you wouldn't /in to trash on us newbs (you are more than welcome though!)

    I'm sure you're going to be busy playing your Top32 ranked 1v1 WebDip players tournament

    that's right i saw the thread

    Good Luck!
    Thanks for the well wishes
    I've clinched advancement to the knockout stage, and it looks like (once my final group stage match finishes, but i THINK I've all but clinched the W in that last one) that I'll have a coin flip for seeding, so I'll either go up against one of the top few players on the site and probably get my $%#! kicked, or go up against someone who's probably around my level and hopefully gut it out. glglme
  30. Replies
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    Strategy /spec (idk if there will be a rail chat discord...

    /spec (idk if there will be a rail chat discord for this one or not)
  31. #14

    Thread: GIFs R Us

    by mhsmith0
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    700

    “Trust. It was a word that only liars used. A...

    Quote Originally Posted by Logic (#12)

    TSK TSK @mhsmith0.
    How can we trust your gif-game when you can't even have one last a week?
    “Trust. It was a word that only liars used. A word the truthful had no need of.”
  32. #12606

    Thread: Word Association

    by mhsmith0
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    learning

    learning
  33. #3

    Thread: GIFs R Us

    by mhsmith0
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    700

    https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/20...

  34. #530

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
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    9,109

    http://i.imgur.com/ves9nzi.png Member Odin,...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaleb (#529)
    Flying Mythical Figures:
    In: Pegasus
    Out: Werewolf


    Member Odin, Zeus, Ares, Dionysus, Heimdall, Quetzalcoatl
    Non member Mercedes, sobek, Maui, Hercules, Jupiter, Jove, Janus, Allah, Buddha, Hermes, Alpheius, Artemis, Apollo, Moya, Goya, Pegasus, Werewolf
  35. #528

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
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    https://www.goya.com/media/6503/canned-black-beans...

    Quote Originally Posted by [NSM] Mikey (#527)
    moya


    You had only one guess, so I'll give you another for free
    Member Odin, Zeus, Ares, Dionysus, Heimdall, Quetzalcoatl
    Non member Mercedes, sobek, Maui, Hercules, Jupiter, Jove, Janus, Allah, Buddha, Hermes, Alpheius, Artemis, Apollo, Moya, Goya
  36. #526

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7M3_BqUp95Y :p ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaleb (#523)
    Olymipians:
    In: Usain Bolt Hermes
    Out: Alpheius
    Quote Originally Posted by [NSM] Mikey (#524)
    are secretly ducks

    In: Artemis
    Out: Apollo
    Quote Originally Posted by Secondhand Revenant (#525)
    Gods in Age of Mythology

    In: Heimdall
    Out: Quetzalcoatl


    Member Odin, Zeus, Ares, Dionysus, Heimdall, Quetzalcoatl
    Non member Mercedes, sobek, Maui, Hercules, Jupiter, Jove, Janus, Allah, Buddha, Hermes, Alpheius, Artemis, Apollo
  37. #522

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
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    https://media.giphy.com/media/JtT8eAt7UxhRe/giphy....

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaleb (#521)
    Gods of War
    Member: Ares
    Non-member: Dionysus

    Member Odin, Zeus, Ares, Dionysus
    Non member Mercedes, sobek, Maui, Hercules, Jupiter, Jove, Janus, Allah, Buddha
  38. Postgame#1728

    Thread: Automated Game

    by mhsmith0
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    Completed Also, for the record: lynching outside of the...

    Also, for the record: lynching outside of the pretty clear dipole in a pre-lylo world was a fairly obviously terrible move. ESPECIALLY since, in a lengthy "we're lynching exactly one of these two" situation, you force both of them to make public stances, can MAYBE find some spew among the wolf if you lynch correctly, and just as importantly, you force that wolf's partner to make a hard choice between bussing and pushing exactly one specific villager who they KNOW is town.

    This is very basic werewolf strategy that basically the entire town botched on d3.
  39. Postgame#1724

    Thread: Automated Game

    by mhsmith0
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    Completed I think that backups only can inherit from their...

    I think that backups only can inherit from their own alignment, though I'm not 100% on that.
  40. #520

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
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    https://media.giphy.com/media/3o6MbhYjXivHHMrLSE/g...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaleb (#519)
    Top Dieties:
    In: Allah
    Out: Buddah

    Member Odin, Zeus
    Non member Mercedes, sobek, Maui, Hercules, Jupiter, Jove, Janus, Allah, Buddha
  41. #518

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    529
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    https://media.giphy.com/media/s2uampOAMWksU/giphy....

    Quote Originally Posted by Logic (#517)
    Heads of their pantheons:
    Member: Jupiter (or Jove)
    Non-member: Janus


    Member Odin, Zeus
    Non member Mercedes, sobek, Maui, Hercules, Jupiter, Jove, Janus
  42. Postgame#5705

    Thread: Welcome to the Gunshow

    by mhsmith0
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    25,705

    Completed I think the TLDR is it's wolfsided but playable. ...

    I think the TLDR is it's wolfsided but playable. But that's just my $0.02.
  43. #516

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
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    9,109

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxYQQoYfMtQ ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaleb (#515)
    Gods:
    In: Zeus
    Out: Hercules


    Member Odin, Zeus
    Non member Mercedes, sobek, Maui, Hercules
  44. #514

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    529
    Views
    9,109

    https://media.giphy.com/media/tXTqLBYNf0N7W/giphy....

    Quote Originally Posted by nutella (#513)
    Playable gods in Smite

    Member Sobek
    Nonmember Maui (but god damn do they need to add him soon)


    (Jkjk i know literally no one on this site besides me plays smite rip )


    Member Odin
    Non member Mercedes, sobek, Maui
  45. #512

    Thread: The Set Game

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    529
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    9,109

    :shifty: Member Odin Non member Mercedes ...



    Member Odin
    Non member Mercedes

  46. Postgame#4009

    Thread: Tourmaline Mountainous Test Game!

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
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    25,619

    Completed Also, I did EVENTUALLY get to “yeti is probably...

    Also, I did EVENTUALLY get to “yeti is probably town”, and before Dave handed you the hammer, it just took a while. So I sort of qualify on that statement for this game? I th8nk?
  47. Postgame#4008

    Thread: Tourmaline Mountainous Test Game!

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
    4,010
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    25,619

    Completed Probably not lol Tho in fairness “it’s lylo,...

    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#4007)
    smith have u ever once thought i was town in a game of mine u were speccing lol
    Probably not lol
    Tho in fairness “it’s lylo, town is getting rolled and oh yeti is alive I see” does draw towards a certain type of starting headspace that is probably >rand correct
  48. Postgame#3988

    Thread: Tourmaline Mountainous Test Game!

    by mhsmith0
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    25,619

    Completed IBA A few quick thoughts Lol I thought this was...

    @IBA A few quick thoughts
    Lol I thought this was gonna be quick.


    1) I would probably put LYLO blame in tiers something like


    Yeti and IBA
    Ladd and scare
    I don’t really think any of the four had great LYLO’s. I DO think Ladd got increasingly villagery late, but it shouldn’t take half the day or more into LYLO to really get going. In isolation, I’d blame scare more than Ladd (especially since scare was basically “designated final mislynch” down the road and didn’t really do anything to change that) but Ladd is a higher rep player (I think) so that’s relevant too.

    2) while my discussion was LYLO focused (since that’s all I read lol), town got its $%#! kicked all game long
    D1 had v/v/v/v/v/v wagons, which is UHHHH not good
    D2 had one villager voting a wolf, and that was a wolf being minorly bussed (And was the fourth wagon in any rate)
    D3 had v/v/v wagons
    D4 had just one town vote on a wolf

    That’s kind of amazing and is basically a collective town failure. Not gonna bother reading back because $%#! that and I don’t care anyway, but that’s a massive stomp. Period.

    3) I agree that it’s “objectively correct” to SUSPECT there is something really fishy going on with the seemingly convenient wiggles wagon at that spot. I think you’re 100% correct to question $%#! there (and my early take in spec chat was essentially “literally no one is being villagery at all what the $%#!” so definitely some sympathy there).

    I also, though, think that there’s room there to work to evaluate that game state take, stuff like:

    - if wiggles is being railroaded by wolves, is he posting like it? Like, he’s a good player, and (theoretically) the scum team just outed itself to him. There is no solving he needs to do, it’s all convincing and finding evidence to support the world view he now knows is correct. He WASN'T posting like that, so then, why not? Maybe he’s being mega bussed. Maybe he wants you to think that. Etc. but he wasn’t being villagery about it

    - if Dave/yeti are both villagers, why are neither of them being particularly villagery? (Feel free to agree or disagree with the reasonableness of my yeti case as made in DVC, but I feel pretty comfortable in saying that if the team was wiggles/yeti/+1 (whether Dave or not), and she wanted to sweep in f7, and she thought you were gettable, she’d have been posting pretty similarly to what she ended up doing).
    There’s productive poking you can try and do there as well. It might or might not work, but for wiggles to be a villager, BOTH of them must also be villagers. In isolation of everything else, do you think that’s true? Why or why not?
    (Also eod4 kind of begs for a prolonged grilling of BOTH Dave and wiggles, since that whole situation was pretty weird if both were town - ladd’s “why the $%#! did wiggles suddenly “trust” Dave who he’d been pushing for a while” was an excellent point (better made well earlier in the day of course), and one that any villager still considering things should have poked at as well.

    - does a Ladd/wisdom/scare team make sense? Not just in bits and pieces, but the entire thing. This is a great spot to poke at wiggles himself on it. He “knows” the scum team, direct his attention to the credibility and reasonableness of that world, see if it seems like he believes what he’s selling, and see if the points themselves (regardless of delivery) make sense or not.

    - I think in general, your perspective was it’s probably Ladd. So... talk more to wiggles there. Poke at scare or wisdom when they happen to show up, but talking to the guy you agree with is helpful and potentially productive. If wiggles is v, then all three non voters are villagers and need to be convinced. Work that way to build and validate such a world, while still being skeptical. The approach of telling Ladd he’s a wolf is difficult to make work well, so avoid it. Asking questions of him as well is good, but if that’s not really working, reach out to the other supposed villagers (Dave/yeti) and see what they think. Do they agree w your thoughts? Is it possible one or both of them can get through to Ladd more productively instead? Etc.
    As a personal note, I sometimes take $%#! for farming out opinions too much (especially when I do it as wolf ), but there’s value in trying to work it collectively. Focus on having productive discussions w the people who are around and you can productively engage with.

    4) I think it’s fair to question some of ladd’s stuff both live and after the fact, and I agree that wisdom bit looks weird and not good. I’d just say that being aggressively wrong about something obvious isn’t necessarily a wolf tell, and that trying to take charge and play dictator in a game state going badly is inside wolf range but is probably more villagery than not most of the time.
  49. Replies
    71
    Views
    2,744

    one clarification: manti was the official...

    one clarification: manti was the official reviewer, though I also think the setup seems reasonable. good luck everyone!
  50. Postgame#3979

    Thread: Tourmaline Mountainous Test Game!

    by mhsmith0
    Replies
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    25,619

    Completed I have no idea if anyone will find it useful or...

    I have no idea if anyone will find it useful or not, but w/e, here’s my running commentary from DVC on game I started spec’ing midway into f7 and ended up making a 3/3 wolf team guess (even if it was fairly low confidence, and most of my guesses up to that point were 2/3)
    Adding some personal commentary based on my after the fact headspace, and sometimes fleshing out some of the thoughts I’d had live


    Ermagherd. mhsmith0 is here.
    Yesterday at 12:05 PM
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:05 PM
    hello!
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:05 PM
    Hey Smith!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:06 PM
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3784498
    if that's a villa lylo post it's one of the wolfiest villa lylo posts i've ever seen

    Quote Originally Posted by IBA (#3551)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3528)
    cool, so now either the team is me/scare/wisdom or wiggles is a wolf
    Wiggles has had two votes on him all day long. If you were town, it should have been empirically obvious that he was wolf long before now. It should have been a mechanical certainty. So thanks for confirming that you are scum I guess
    COMMENTARY: the point here is that IBA is blatantly avoiding the very obvious context of town!ladd at least theoretically talking from the perspective of everyone else on the board, instead using a post that is null at worst (and, objectively, at least slightly villagery) as an excuse to attack ladd. IBA's post here looked extremely agenda-y because he's representing his process as being willfully blind to the very obvious potential village context behind ladd's post.


    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:06 PM
    Thoughts on the game, who do you think is mafia?
    I see!!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:06 PM
    i mean door #1 is the 3 wolves are voting wiggles
    door #2 is wiggles is a wolf with ladd, and wolf #3 is a potato slot, maybe scare or iba or w/e
    door #3 is a more fun wiggle wolf team, maybe something like IBA/yeti?
    I mean yeti posting v well in lylo, but miss "I have a 100% wolf win rate" should be cleared approximately 0% of the time whatever the sitaution


    COMMENTARY: I still don't really understand why no one seemed interested in pushing her here or dealing with the realistic chance that she'd been playing a wolf game. There's a good number of high rep dead townies, and the game is going horribly for town, "the highest rep wolf player on the board" (which I think is very clearly yeti here?) seems like a pretty obvious suspect barring major clearing context (but I didn't read anything before lylo so meh)
    scare seems sort of howling at times too
    but he seems to often be a wolfy villa iirc
    so glgl
    i could read more but nota villager so lolthat :stuck_out_tongue:
    no need spoils
    btw
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:08 PM
    Which world do you think is real though?
    I'm curious!! :stuck_out_tongue:
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:08 PM
    oh right, wisdom was pretty wolfy too
    the only people who seem villagery are the people who are clearly capable of faking it
    glgl

    COMMENTARY: I really feel like this is the proper headspace to be critically thinking about this board state. Who here can you REALLY clear? Who is REALLY scummy? Who is capable of making good posts as wolf, and who is capable of making BAD posts as town?
    It's like 100x easier to go through this process as an outsider who'd paid zero attention to anything pre-LYLO, as there's no baggage to carry... and plenty of times, the baggage that exists can actually be helpful in setting context... but still. At the least, this particular game was at least fairly solveable based on LYLO behavior and postings alone.

    GeneralHankerchiefYesterday at 12:08 PM
    Smithemotes.gif
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:08 PM
    maybe i should look for people posting too BADLY to be a wolf here :thinking:


    COMMENTARY: This is the sort of approach that almost no one actually takes in this situation. But it can be really helpful to try and set context and reset expectations, ESPECIALLY if you can reasonably presume that wolves have SOME sort of bad-posting villager in mind for their final mislynch (in this case, that bad-posting villager was scare, and while they were making some effort to win ahead of time, their overall strategy was aimed at letting wisdom carry it to the end, and set up an f3 of iba/wisdom/scare)
    i mean what i really should do is figure if ladd/wisdom/scare makes sense
    b/c if not then wiggles is wolf 1
    probably wiggles a wolf here
    not 100%
    but i'd be a bit surprised to see it be just those 3
    also b/c that theory team seems WILDLY underpowered compared to this playerlist
    i.e. i don't buy they're stomping this town
    so wiggles red
    like, 90% of the time?

    COMMENTARY: You obviously never know, but it's probably reasonable to just state "these three players probably aren't capable of curb-stomping this particular town" and see where that conclusion takes you. All the more so given that the competing perspective is "wiggles, a good wolf player, is just a wolf here". You don't go 100% into it, but that's a baseline expectation that SHOULD color thinking here.
    $%#! if I know who's green given that tho
    yeti seems to be posting quite well this lylo
    but i sort of think that's >Rand wolf for her :thinking:
    but i forget whatever was supposed to clear her (since she INSISTS she's clear) so glgl
    i'm willing to live in a wiggles/yeti/+1 world
    not committing to it
    but i sort of want to believe
    inb4 they're both villas :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: The DVC yeti push was obviously incorrect here, but even there it's world-building, seeing what makes sense, and seeing what kind of conclusions come out of it.
    I think I was also colored by a previous lylo (I think one of the hydra games? Maybe some other game?) where yeti (as town) was just massively melting down and berating at least one other player for being bad, and openly bragging about her 100% wolf win rate. There was a monumental difference between that game and this game, and that tonal gap BY ITSELF is probably a reaosnable wolf case on her, obviously ignoring all previous context of the game, but again, lolreding.

    it'd be pretty funny if a ladd/wisdom/scare team swept this board
    but MAN do i not really think that's the world we live in

    COMMENTARY: Again, think about context, likelihoods, waht sort of situations really make sense or do not. It’s a process of triaging things that are high probability vs low probability and seeing where those thoughts take you
    maybe i should just guess wiggles/yeti/dave for maximum lulz
    making IBA the villager about to lose it for town?
    i have no idea how plausible this world would be
    but i think it'd be amusing
    so that's a WANT TO BELIEVE world
    of course that makes wisdom/IBA/scare all super wolfy villagers in lylo
    glgl

    COMMENTARY: As an aside, it's like 1,000,000x easier to play around with these takes as an uninterested observer in DVC than a dead villager, much less a live villager who needs to not just solve but also deflect pressure and deal with the underlying stress of lylo.
    So this is DEFINITELY not a "do waht I did here" bit (all the more so given the rambling and meandering commentary ). But I do think the exercise is overall useful or at least informative.

    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:14 PM

    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:14 PM
    tfw the people howling the loudest are all town

    COMMENTARY: Again, this wasn't a correct conclusion, but the headspace of "posting badly doesn't necessarily make you a wolf" got 2/3 correct reads (even if I was just playing w the notion here), and the two villagers on the clearing list were the mislynches wolves were targeting (scare/IBA). Of course the miscleared wolf was the intended deep wolf so FLAWED just a bit but w/e
    i just scrolled up briefly and there seems to be consesnsus of wiggles w, but not strong consensus among the rest

    COMMENTARY: I think this was the only time I went back to see waht other dead villagers or spectators said?
    i could scroll up more but lolsmithlazy :stuck_out_tongue:
    but i'll call a wiggles/yeti/dave team FOR NOW, mainly b/c it amuses me, and because that team could definitely be capable of stomping this game
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:17 PM
    That'd be a pretty strong team, for sure!!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:17 PM
    also for the lulz


    COMMENTARY: Again, obviously not the correct team, but still reasonably close. And, of course, it's much easier to play w/ notions of theory teams when you don't need to solve, aren't getting triggered by your fellow players, etc. (I'd know NOTHING about that, no sirree... )

    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...42#post3784442
    :wave: @Yeti
    (for when she checks into spec chat postgame)
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3513)
    Why would a wolf out by hammering before lylo if the intent is to win at lylo unless there are bigger schemes at play
    sad that no one here gets the joke
    (the joke being that visor and i blatantly did this in 2017 hydra 5, then won in lylo anyway :stuck_out_tongue: )

    COMMENTARY: for better and for worse, this is a mediocre read. Wolves do weird $%#! for obvious reasons, and sometimes the reason is just "$%#! it". (in my case it was some combo of "$%#! it", "ok visor is better than I am so I'll just do what I'm told", and outright wolf fatigue after a nightmarishly stressful game to date (I basically had spent like four straight day phases losing my mind, which is probably typical of the wolf games where I somehow do well, as opposed to the more numerous wolf games where I do badly and just $%#!post in DVC )
    Mist1422Yesterday at 12:18 PM
    also the hydra game that just ended
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:18 PM
    and the main reason was (iirc) that we were bored :stuck_out_tongue:
    Mist1422Yesterday at 12:18 PM
    Jal Manti and Duk3 did it
    Yep
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:19 PM
    The hammer in the hydra game wasn't much of an out, without many people around to notice, to be fair!!
    Hammers in a game like this are a bit more noticeable in the calm, though they can still come from either alignment obviously!!!

    COMMENTARY: This spilled a bit into my yeti wolfread, and I do think that, broadly speaking, yeti's lylo was EXTREMELY consistent with how she'd have handled it in a wolf!wiggles / town!ladd world (barring the "bus wiggles" outcome, I guess)
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:20 PM
    i SORT OF feel yeti is being lowkey wolfy here but i don't know her well enough to say for sure, using this as the metric
    https://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/...861732#p861732
    Well for the Harb read, I honestly left everything in thread. The only fabrication was backing off the read. People did get this a bit wrong: Harb is typically NOT a town "leader" in the sense of driving conversation the way he wants it to go. In my experience, townHarb doesn't lead conversation, but he examines conversation obsessively. LOTS of questions, almost always neutrally-phrased. If anything, he tries NOT to give leading questions. He asks these questions to try to understand people's process, but once he feels that he does, he does referee. If he sees a misunderstanding, and thinks it's town/town, he tries to mediate and clear up the conversation and steer us to something more productive. He doesn't tell people what to do, but he's not shy about imposing his opinion. Day 3 Harb (before the End of the Day) wouldn't have raised an eyebrow with me. But D1 and to a lesser extent D2, Harb saw unproductive nonsense going and if he'd been town, he would have refereed. He didn't. He put his thoughts on the board, but they were observations, not interventions. $%#!, that's how I should always have phrased it. Observations, not interventions.
    etc
    the whole "observations, not interventions" bit
    FEELS like that's applying to yeti here

    COMMENTARY: This is one of my favorite post-game observations I've seen in a game (Keirador, a survivor role, talking about Harb, a wolf role), and I go back to it from time to time. It gets at the very heart of what you see from high-end wolf players sometimes.
    I bring up Mexal in champs g9 below because that's another great example. Really good wolf players are perfectly capable of crapping out intelligent things to say about the board. Not IIOA, but actual game-relevant analytical thoughts that show depth and consideration. You aren’t going to get good to great wolf players on “is posting like a dumbass” / “is posting generic stuff that shows no depth of thought at all” metrics. But where you can sometimes start to see some differential is whether they CARE about those thoughts and what they do with them.
    Using Mexal as an example again, there was a wall post he made d1 where he was engaging with Zack, a high-rep villager who'd been aggressively pushing beruru (another villager) and slightly less aggressively pushing jdarksun (a wolf) and me (also a wolf). What Mexal chose to do with his time was use a lot of words to justify a reasonably well thought out town-read of Zack (who was also town-reading him). But what he DIDN'T do was the follow-up that he probably puts forward as a villager - engaging with Zack, working with him to refine the three pushes zack is making, figuring out which are the best ones to make, or trying to pull Zack onto a different direction entirely.
    He didn't do that b/c he was agenda-pushing; he wanted to create a mutual town-read b/w himself and Zack, but he didn't want to go further and really engage w/ where Zack wanted to go (the reason probably being that 2/3 ppl Zack was pushing were wolves). But it's that CARE that starts to get at motivation (and later in the game, people were commenting about how Mexal was giving intelligent commentary but that it didn't matter overmuch, which was part of the background leading to

    ) – and that’s where you start to find players who are good at wolfing. It’s HARD, and obviously it’s not always correct (see: yeti in this game ), but it’s a starting point, and I think it’s a really good starting point for trying to think about games and reading people who are good at wolfing, even if, again, it’s not always right.

    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:21 PM
    Information over analysis?
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:21 PM
    not that precisely
    there's analysis too, more like...
    talking about stuff intelligently vs actively trying to DO stuff w/ what analysis
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:21 PM
    Commentary?
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:21 PM
    i mean there's reasonable odds i'm about to look like a moron there but w/e, it's gut anyway
    yeah, sort of
    somewhat like mexal in champs g9
    is talking about stuff, and is doing so intelligently, but it's not really clear that the discussions MATTER and are DRIVING stuff, if you get what i mean?
    also i sort of feel yeti would be more melt-downy as a villager here
    but who knows
    maybe she's town and is just in a headspace of blaming others, and maybe this game justifies it? would need to read more to really get a sesne of it

    COMMENTARY: Again, it was obviously incorrect to call yeti wolf here for all of this, but I still tend to think that she plays LYLO very broadly similar to this in a wolf!wiggles / town!ladd world, or at least this is broadly consistent w/ one of the ways she could choose to play it (idk, maybe she busses wiggles a non-trivial % of the time instead?)
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:23 PM
    Ah yeah, that sort of posting!!!
    Sounds like you've read a decent chunk, how much?
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:23 PM
    i've read a chunk of today, almost nothing else
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3784763
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3585)
    I hate this lylo and it feels like there are 5 wolves here, everyone has an agenda and 4 votes on the table that early with no hammer is the big doodoo
    this feels like this is what town!yeti would be actually feeling, but idk if it's really shining through her posts? Maybe it actually is and lolsmith? (i get reminded of soah's "wolves talk about what they're feeling, villagers express their feelings through their actual posts" bit here, just not sure it's relevant)
    COMMENTARY: Insert relevant soah post here:
    Quote Originally Posted by Soah
    Spiff was doing stuff that you just don't see wolves actually do -- claiming a PR with still 24 hours remaining on d1 and openly antagonizing the people pushing him the hardest, rather than just slink away and wait for a shiny object to appear that drags the votes away from him



    Cron was working super hard at developing his reads and he had the proper emotional investment in what he was doing. I don't feel like pulling up his posts to cite specific examples, so let's just talk again about the Trundle thing. He soulreads a guy as a wolf based on one post and has four reasons for it, and he's super proud of himself and patting himself on the back for it. Wolves aren't trying that hard to develop quick reads and they tend to struggle to come up with that level of insight and they aren't good at getting the subtle emotions right. And his whole day was full of things like that. Cron has played several wolf games on this site and his posting was bland and forgettable each time.



    I don't have time to adequately respond to that post but one thing I can say quickly is that when I'm talking about emotions, I'm specifically excluding anger. It's the easiest emotion to fake and it's one that is often not alignment-indicative even when it is genuine, unless it can be traced to an origin in something distinctly villagery.

    Emotions like pride, paranoia, surprise, suspicion, etc, are more difficult to fake. Wolves often fail to even identify spots in which emotion should be present in their posting, and their efforts at actually displaying more complex emotions are often quite clumsy, for example by stating their supposed feelings rather than displaying them.

    But in the case of Cron, a lot of what was clearing for him was just the sheer depth and breadth of his reads and interactions. It's just hard to fake that much content so quickly and make it sound good. And few wolves are ever going to stalk other players' online statuses in order to catch lurkers.
    Smith Inserts the Relevant Cron Quotes
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by Trundle
    Well, here we go again. I'm glad there is not 100 pages in the first hour.

    Based on post count alone and higher aggression, different tone in his lost, Emberguard is very likely town.
    I agree with the ember read but your first post this game does not impress me like it did in Transformers.

    If trundle flips mafia, consider ember town.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by LordJvK
    Cron, one little wolf tell I've picked up on over time is how a lot of them vote for a bro very early. It's long-game cover and anti-spew, but you'd be alarmed at how many wolves vote for a wolf as their very first action in any given game.
    I think it's more likely that mafia just gave an easy read (ember acting very differently this game) as a spew than they're both mafia.

    And yes I think trundle is mafia.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by champ2947
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by LordJvK
    Cron, one little wolf tell I've picked up on over time is how a lot of them vote for a bro very early. It's long-game cover and anti-spew, but you'd be alarmed at how many wolves vote for a wolf as their very first action in any given game.
    I think it's more likely that mafia just gave an easy read (ember acting very differently this game) as a spew than they're both mafia.

    And yes I think trundle is mafia.
    Off one post?
    Yep. Get on my level.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Why trundle is mafia based on 1 post:

    1. Relieved there isn't a flood of posts to read yet gives hardly any content.
    2. Only gives an easy tone read on ember, easy to fake as mafia.
    3. Content is very lacking compared to his town game in transformers
    4. Still has yet to respond to me calling him mafia.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by Trundle
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Why trundle is mafia based on 1 post:

    1. Relieved there isn't a flood of posts to read yet gives hardly any content.
    2. Only gives an easy tone read on ember, easy to fake as mafia.
    3. Content is very lacking compared to his town game in transformers
    4. Still has yet to respond to me calling him mafia.
    Reasonable, but I disagree.
    1. I'm in Computer Science and there are exams right now. I don't have time for an overly busy game like Transformers. I figured this one would be less busy simply do to what happened last game. This is why I am relieved. Also, do to the fact that there isn't all the much content yet, I did not have much to go off of, but I did give a read which is more than nearly anyone else had done so far.
    2. Any town reading another town as town is easy to fake as mafia reading a town as town.
    3. What content? It was my first post of the game and I was just checking in.
    4. I was offline.

    It seems to me that you're just reaction testing me because my post wasn't as long as it was last time. Also, I haven't read the rest of the thread yet, so just give me a second and if anyone else joined bandwagon I'll respond shortly.
    I am reaction testing a bit, and you failed miserably.

    You've been online in MU for 45 minutes, I saw on main page, so saying you were offline until now is a blatant lie.

    Your demeanor is far too calm. Watching you post in dead chat on transformers and post game, the salt levels were off the charts. Yet now in a new game, you're completely mellow and not upset at all with the fact you are being pushed on my multiple people.

    I think this post is very well thought out and carefully constructed, but there's no trace of emotion anywhere. You scrubbed your response to make it sound articulate, but you forgot to add any feeling.

    Trundle should be a wagon today.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    I don't know why you're doubling down on being offline. I saw you online for an extended period of time starting around 10:30 eastern. The reason I remember this is because I was waiting around for your response for 15 minutes and saw you still online during that time.

    Ok great, my accusations are nonsense and distracting town. Do you have any other reads outside of ember?
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    Quote Originally Posted by Trundle
    Quote Originally Posted by Cron
    I don't know why you're doubling down on being offline. I saw you online for an extended period of time starting around 10:30 eastern. The reason I remember this is because I was waiting around for your response for 15 minutes and saw you still online during that time.

    Ok great, my accusations are nonsense and distracting town. Do you have any other reads outside of ember?
    I think Alette's posting is very sketchy, but from last game I just think she always sounds like she is mafia. I have a feeling that most of the mafia have not posted much yet. 3 people have not posted yet, and 4 people are between 1-2 posts. I am very neutral on Revival.
    So three mafia within 0-1 post count, 1 mafia higher post count?

    I feel like you aren't trying to solve the game. Your reads are alette is scummy but she posts scummy so I dunno and revival is null. Why aren't you creating town lists in your head?


    but, like... town!yeti is probably berating people for being $%#!ty or something here? idk, maybe that's wrong
    it would be easier for me to convince myself for real taht she's a wolf instead of playing w the notion if there were people being actively villagery i think :neutral_face:
    then again, i'm the weird sort who cares WAY MORE in lylo as a villager and always finds it weird when other villas don't
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...29#post3784429
    this one is something of a counter argument to the above, if it's a wolf post i think it's a REALLY good one
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3502)
    I'm gonna vote no lynch and let it rand unless wolfy bois wiggle and ladd start making some compelling cases for their solves
    COMMENTARY: Again, it’s a triage process. Here’s the sort of post where she’s showing the sort of headspace that is consistent w/ a somewhat demotivated and frustrated villager. Not talking about her emotions or stating them directly, but expressing the frustration with wiggle and ladd both failing to be useful or villagery, and even more critically, using it as a prod to actually create content.
    If it’s a wolf post by her, then it’s PURELY a performative one, but even there if it’s performative it’s super downplayed in terms of “read me town for this” and just sort of trying to make villagery-looking posts (and the other downside is it might ACTUALLY create useful alignment-sorting content, which is obviously a downside for wolf!her). It’s the sort of post where you can completely understand the headspace where town!yeti is making it, and it advances what her goals should be, where there are much more limited gains for wolf!her, and there seems to not be a meaningful purpose behind it in that case.
    Worth a town clear? Certainly not… but it’s something that’s villagery looking and SHOULD go into the analysis of the game state
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:28 PM

    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:31 PM
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3784837
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3784860
    these are both quite good posts if ladd is a wolf here and wiggles is not

    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3593)
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3590)
    I dont think it is, if you're town you should be trying to shine thru so we can find you here but all yall voters look shady and suss
    that sounds like your problem, not mine
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3596)
    Quote Originally Posted by IBA (#3594)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3591)
    look if wiggles was some rando, i could maybeeeee understand the vote on chemist not being outing

    but wiggles is a very very good villa player

    if like zack makes that hammer do you think he is a villager after?
    You literally haven’t provided a wolf motivation for him to make that vote.
    we are in triple lylo lol

    that's the motivation

    wow you deserve to be lynched tomorrow honestly if it gets there

    COMMENTARY: I think “good” is perhaps the wrong perspective here if ladd is wolf, but they’re certainly villagery-looking. He’s basically raising his middle finger to two other players (in this case, two villagers; and if he’s a wolf and wiggles a villager, then they’re both villagers in THAT world too)
    As a villager, he’s low on patience with multiple other people in the game and doesn’t mind being blunt about it; he thinks that yeti can figure this $%#! out herself and it’s her job (which isn’t necessarily exactly right but is a common enough villager mindframe), and he’s completely run out of patience w/ IBA’s derptunnel and crappy questions (you can disagree whether they actually were crappy questions, but it’s beyond obvious that LADD thought they were).
    It’s overall a super clear and consistent headspace behind the posting, and if he’s a wolf faking that, he’s doing a damn fine job with his acting (plus, he’s doing things that probably make life harder for wolf!him in most worlds anyway by antagonizing presumed villagers).

    dave peacing the $%#! out of lylo PROBABLY should be wolfy for him? but idk his rl situation, and that only makes sense if it's all villas on town!wiggles and IBA is about to blow it
    in any other world, it's probably villagery of him to not be around

    COMMENTARY: Again, the immediate take is wrong, but it's a process of circling around towards the correct answer. Sometimes thinking about the context gets you to the wrong answer!
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:34 PM
    He's been pretty busy with work; was difficult for getting him to play at all!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:34 PM
    so, like, dave fits in a wiggles/yeti/dave team, feels harder to fit him in a decent % of others? maybe wiggles/iba/dave? I struggle to see him being #3 in a wonky ladd/wiggles/dave team
    oh, and wolf!yeti could TOTALLY have been intentionally emphasizing "ladd/wiggles can be w/w here" both to avoid needing to clear/kill ladd after wiggles death, and to MAYBE get a rando willager to vote wiggles
    i like rolling w the wiggles/yeti/dave team b/c it's fun regardless of accuracy i guess :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: Both yeti and dave were engaging with the "maybe ladd just bussed wiggles" bit which is almost exactly how I'd expect a wolf who thinks they need to mislynch ladd to play it *shrugs*
    Also, i think it's helpful to again note that it's easier to do this when you have literally zero emotional attachment to a game because it's perfectly fine to $%#! around w/ notions instead of feeling you need to be exactly right with lots of pressure breathing down your neck

    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:40 PM

    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:40 PM

    /hype emoji :stuck_out_tongue:
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:43 PM
    Watching other people solve while I have the answers hype emote!! :stuck_out_tongue:
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:43 PM
    yes, is a very fun aspect of hosting :stuck_out_tongue:
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:56 PM
    i don't know that there's anything dave is posting that really argues AGAINST a wiggles/dave/yeti team either waiting to get IBA to misvote or pounce next phase on their pick of "bussers" :thinking:

    COMMENTARY: I still think this is probably correct, fwiw. Though the lift of getting TWO villagers to both vote wrong is obviously much higher here.

    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:56 PM
    One of the best parts!!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:56 PM
    ara, are you SURE you didn't just rand 2 different 3-man scum teams and it's secret multiball? :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: Obviously this is a $%#!post, but in the context of the actual game, at this point no one was being particularly villagery, which obviously makes the game much harder to solve
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 12:58 PM
    Shhh... you heard nothing!!
    :GhostStab:
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 12:58 PM
    "how to avoid being villagery in lylo"
    by, the viillage
    :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY:
    Obviously lots of wiseassery here but I don't think it was particularly *WRONG*, per se
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:07 PM
    it would also be sort of funny if this was v/v wagons or some other lock wolf win state and they were just amusing themselves waiting for deadline, but that's more of a "it'd be funny" bit than anything w/ a realistic chance of actually existing here
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:10 PM
    The former, yes!!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:15 PM


    COMMENTARY: And here is where IBA voted ladd
    well we're about to find out if my rando team guess was right :stuck_out_tongue:
    that wiggles post does not read like wiggles/yeti/dave
    awwww :frowning:
    :stuck_out_tongue:
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785135
    the ultimate in NAI posts
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3624)
    wiggles, is the game over?
    COMMENTARY: I'll basically go to my grave thinking that this is 100% NAI for all but the very worst wolf players
    yogslothYesterday at 1:18 PM
    Interesting takes lol
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:19 PM
    lol
    the difference b/w smith w/ real opinions and smith w/ TMI continues to be insanely striking :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: something, something, smith sucks at wolfing
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:19 PM
    Indeed!!
    Any thoughts on the setup so far, as you've seen it?
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:20 PM
    probably reasonable enough, but i'd defer to ppl actually playing it
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785143
    idk ladd well enough to know his wolf range here, but I'd TEND to think it's decently town indicative?
    Game Thread: Tourmaline Mountainous Test Game! - Page 73
    #3629 Posted by: ladd

    you voted me

    i don't have to pretend to care about the inane things you say anymore

    byebye

    well i guess it isn't wiggles/yeti/dave after all
    sad
    if it's wiggles/x/dave, does dave just hammer soon, or does he hold out hope that yeti misvotes?
    :thinking:

    COMMENTARY: Again, thinking in terms of game states here, but obviously the "maybe dave just busses here to set up IBA as the f5 mislynch" was a wrong take
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:27 PM
    I'll confirm merely that the game is not over yet!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:33 PM
    IBA feels more like "wrong villager" here than anything else but i could def. be wrong shrugs

    COMMENTARY: something something smith has co-villaged with too many aggressive derp-tunnelers to auto wolf read that $%#! anymore
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785161
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785162
    these are really solid wolf posts if they're wolf posts but i think there's 0% chance they're out of yeti's range
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3645)
    Wiggles why did u think I was scum all game
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3646)
    Explain your failures
    COMMENTARY: I think in retrospect this is exactly right. Good wolf posts if wolf posts (and if wolf posts, she’s just theater-ing w/ her buddy), but yeti is almost certainly capable of making each of these, or maybe even better wolf posts.
    ladd's self meta wrt scare feels pretty decent?
    people lie about self meta but meh

    COMMENTARY: This was after a massive bit of self meta from ladd about him/wisdom not being wolves together. There are wolves who can effectively manipulate meta, there are wolves who will just flat out lie about meta under the gun... but ladd's bit here is villagery more often than not. It just is.
    new guess: wiggles/yeti/wisdom
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:37 PM
    They do occasionally, but in my experience if it's a lie, it's an unconscious lie instead of a subconscious one!!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:37 PM
    based mainly off this post
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785172
    Game Thread: Tourmaline Mountainous Test Game! - Page 74
    #3654 Posted by: Yeti
    Why do I feel like scare doesnt fit with wiggles bc why bus this early unless its bc dave said he was prolly going wiggles
    GOD I wish we could lynch scare today lol
    that's PROBABLY too level 1 to be correct tho
    :thinking:
    idk why i'm bothering to sort of try and solve a game i didn't even rand town in
    lolololol

    COMMENTARY: It's sort of funny that I started mentally moving towards wisdom as #3 because of my incorrect wolf read of yeti. I will note, I guess, that at no point did I represent my process as perfect or anything close to it
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:39 PM
    It's fun solving games!!!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:40 PM
    the aftermath of
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785175
    ought to be telling whether wiggles/yeti could reasonably be a thing here
    Quote Originally Posted by DaveDob (#3657)
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3648)
    Dave where are you leaning rn? We need both of us on board to lynch ladd but either of us can lynch wiggles at any point
    Here’s where I’m at right now. I think the odds Wiggles is getting buzzed right now are low. Not impossible but low. I don’t think Wisdom is with Wiggles. I don’t think Ladd is with Wiggles. So unless I can be talked into Wiggles being with Scare or someone else can convince me he is with you, it’s hard for me to find his team easily. Ladd/Scare/Wisdom have nothing to me that tell me they can’t be partners. I still haven’t ruled anything out yet but this is where my head is currently stands
    COMMENTARY: I think this was a generally good way to look at it? Wolf!yeti here would feel empowered to go for the win, so how does yeti actually behave?
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:40 PM
    I'm feeling a bit lost at the moment as I'm out of game to solve, with the hydra game having ended; thankfully there'll be more games starting next Monday to follow!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:41 PM
    i could try and do a titus and muck around w vca and see if it helps but i feel lazy
    and halfway decent vca is really about highlighting certain plausible gamestates and then look back and posting detail to see if it fits
    i.e. ACTUAL WORK
    so yeah $%#! that :stuck_out_tongue:
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:42 PM
    VCA is always fun to play with; it really is more accurate than reads, provided you apply it correctly!!!
    I really want to get better at that in general... have had good results from just trusting it over my own reads, most notable recent time being in the staff game!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:43 PM
    in aftermath of dave post, yeti is playing around w lynching ladd as a notion. NOT removing that theory team, FOR NOW anyway

    COMMENTARY: I think this is fine? Obviously incorrect in context but triaging what does or doesn’t make sense, looking to confirm or argue against certain headspaces being reasonable or correct.

    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785190
    i think i would lynch this post and never feel any guilt if wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by DaveDob (#3671)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3663)
    dave, answer my questions
    I saw your one about Wiggles voting. I may know Wiggles but my knowledge of what Wiggles would and wouldn’t do as either alignment is not simple because Wiggles play is wide. Why would he do it as town? Idk. I have no answer for that. Is it impossible for him to just sheep me there? I don’t think so
    COMMENTARY: Look at this absolute $%#!ing nothing burger of a post. Just flagrantly refusing to engage w/ ladd's questions/arguments, not because dave is $%#! tunneling ladd and/or being tilted or the like (such behavior would, at the least, have a vote attached by now, not to mention at least dozens of obnoxious type posts), but because he's a wolf who's dodging the $%#! out of the issues
    one decent arugment for the ladd/wisdom/scare world is that those 3 have kind of refused to engage in any kind of world building that villagers here really ought to be doing
    :thinking:
    still don't think it's those 3 tho
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785195
    this is a good post as either alignment, and seems both villagery and meaningful?
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3675)
    Quote Originally Posted by DaveDob (#3671)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3663)
    dave, answer my questions
    I saw your one about Wiggles voting. I may know Wiggles but my knowledge of what Wiggles would and wouldn’t do as either alignment is not simple because Wiggles play is wide. Why would he do it as town? Idk. I have no answer for that. Is it impossible for him to just sheep me there? I don’t think so
    he didn't vilal read you

    explain to me why he would sheep you when he didn't even villa read you

    while voting with literally all his wolf reads
    COMMENTARY: I think this was around where I started to villa read ladd on his own merits instead of just game state $%#!?
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785197
    WUT
    Quote Originally Posted by IBA (#3676)
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3654)
    Why do I feel like scare doesnt fit with wiggles bc why bus this early unless its bc dave said he was prolly going wiggles
    GOD I wish we could lynch scare today lol
    scare was my number one lynch target heading into today, because "this person hammered town" is an absolutely terrible reason to say they're scum under the best of circumstances, but "this person keeps not wanting to play the game and shows no interest in doing so" is a fantastic reason to say someone is scum.
    But then the scum team immediately, as their first action of the day, made sure scare couldn't be the counterlynch.
    (Well wiggles helped but I put that down to nerves at coming under a coordinated scum assault.)
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:47 PM

    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:47 PM
    the whole "wolf team made sure scare couldn't be CW" was is either too ridiculous to be real or too ridickluous to be fake. i guardedly think the latter but it's weak

    ehh...
    ladd did vote first
    so you can make a case that TAHT forced the issue
    ok i retract that point
    maybe leans villa b/c it's a post that reads horribly at first glace but better at 2nd glance?
    that or smith is confbiasing this :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: Again, think and rethink and reconsider. First take was “complete trash horrible post” and then slowly think about how it makes sense and maybe it’s actually ok, and then throw in some alignment-relevant thoughts.
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785203
    this is a fair post i think
    but idk how many villas actually work through that at lylo
    but def. most should
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3681)
    See this is what I dont like

    There is too much emphasis on "it's just wiggles"

    But wiggles has 2 teammates and I dont see you putting the pieces together for the last villagers to see.

    If scare is bussing wigglesband you've thought scare is mafia for days wht aren't you making more of a scene about it? Care voted wiggles with you and you barely cared or reacted.

    What's the deal with that
    COMMENTARY: This is a good and reasonable thought from yeti. I think this drove her headspace and ultimate hammer, which was obviously incorrect, but it’s not wrong to think about things in these terms. I think it’s a relatively weak point on actually being AI, but it’s not nothing. I think ladd did improve in these specific terms as the day went along, though having to do so AFTER the point is raised is much more NAI on his end.

    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:58 PM
    well if wiggles is a wolf who gest lynched, i think that the villager in dave/yeti dies tonight about 80% of the time (maybe there are worlds where both are town but i don't want to live there :stuck_out_tongue: )

    COMMENTARY: something something "you don't need to bother solving yeti/dave b/c the night kill probably solves it for you"
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:58 PM
    Who do you think gets lynched today, regardless of alignment?
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:58 PM
    coin flip
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 1:58 PM
    Or with alignment factored in, whichever you like!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 1:59 PM
    feels like both yeti and dave want to vote ladd
    but needs to go 2/2 for that to happen
    dave probably more want than yeti
    but that's part of why i'm still playing w/ notion of yeti w
    v!dave votes ladd, w!yeti gg hammers, is a plausible outcome here

    COMMENTARY: that the alignments of yeti/dave in my thinking were reversed here doesn't change the essential sitation, which is that both are expressing interest in killing ladd and it's realistic for one to be a wolf working the other
    not sure waht to make of wiggles voting ladd over wisdom when both had voted him
    possible he didn't even see wisdom's vote tho?
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 2:04 PM
    ladd voted Wiggles first, for the record!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:04 PM
    yes but wisdom voted wiggles before wiggles voted ladd
    so wiggles COULD HAVE voted wisdom there
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 2:06 PM
    A fair point; I just automatically think one would countervote the first person to vote you... but I guess it doesn't matter if two people voted you at the same time, right?
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:06 PM
    ohyeah it's natural to vote the 1st
    but the whole "well i think ladd is town" bit that wiggles stated makes that weid
    at least from town!wiggles perspective
    maybe he thinks that wisdom is wolfy and therefore at least he's voting right?
    again, that presumes he saw it and they were 1 min apart
    but PROVIDED he saw wisdom's vote, i'd think the natural town!wiggles take would be more "$%#! you ladd for voting wrong, at least I will vote correctly here "(unless he also thought wisdom town in which case lol)
    not so much explicitly stating that, as having the attitude show through somehow

    COMMENTARY: I suspect that this whole bit was part of what mentally pushed me towards wisdom (though i think it was more i'd had explicit reasons to TR other people)
    I also think it's just another way of looking at the game state, and trying to think through alignment, and a big hit against the town!wiggles world. Because wiggles' behavior here, if town, WAS strange and against what it might be reasonable to expect of him there.

    if ladd, yeti, and dave are all villagers then this game is bat$%#! crazy i think

    COMMENTARY: I did enjoy gh's thinkign emoji on this post

    ArapocalypseYesterday at 2:11 PM

    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:11 PM
    HYPE!!! :stuck_out_tongue:
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:30 PM
    feels like dave about to hand yeti the hammer
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 2:32 PM
    Possibly!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:40 PM
    ladd dragging self meta all over the thread in a villagery looking manner
    if that's wolf play i'm v impressed
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785273
    if this is a village post then
    uhhhhh
    Quote Originally Posted by DaveDob (#3736)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3724)
    dave, i already asked

    but explain to me how the $#@! wiggles votes chemist there as a villager

    you said you can see him sheeping you iirc, but as i said he did not townread you so??
    I could see a world where village Wiggles trusts my read enough to follow me on it. Is it a play that makes total sense? No not really. But could I see it conceivably happening, sure.
    lieterally dodging the insanely obvious point

    COMMENTARY: Again, dave dodging points. And again, ladd just being super villagery in what he's doing on self meta.
    Ladd: if wiggles was town, he thought you were a wolf and then lazy sheeped the push on chem for no real reason. why does that make ANY sense???
    dave: well you see, maybe wiggles trusted my read or something
    :thinking:
    if that post doens't lock in wiggles/dave, this game is weird
    that makes yeti v then
    RIP my spec chat tunnel :frowning:
    wait lets go with this...
    ##Vote mexal
    it'll definitely work THIS time :stuck_out_tongue:
    GeneralHankerchiefYesterday at 2:42 PM

    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:43 PM
    the funny thing is gh's pic works w/ either of my last 2 posts :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: If you're not willing to have fun with yourself and your mistakes, then seriously, stop playing
    tho i will say that it's not a super mega tunnel since i'm admitting it could be wrong and re-evaluating... :wink:
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785278
    WUT????
    Quote Originally Posted by IBA (#3741)
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3732)
    If you want us both to vote ladd then let's talk that over
    Nah he only needs one. Sounds like they’re going all in on you.
    COMMENTARY: I thought this was a bizarre af post at the time, but I think IBA was getting at “they only need one person to incorrectly vote wiggles, they’re trying to get yeti to be the sucker” it’s just really bizarre to read after this particular quoted point
    well i guess not QUITE as bad on dave for going back and addressing the actual point a couple minutes later
    :thinking:

    COMMENTARY: re-evaluating, even when the re-eval points wrong, is still helpful
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 2:45 PM
    This is an amusing image regardless of alignment:

    Arapocalypse
    pinned
    a message
    to this channel.
    See all the pins.
    Yesterday at 2:45 PM
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:46 PM
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785281
    yeah, because THAT is how a self outing wolf team plays lylo here

    Quote Originally Posted by wiggles1993 (#3744)
    Wisdom still afk, scare barely posting.

    Ladds the only one with balls enough to try away you, the rest are just sitting back probably reloading page hoping not to post something stupid
    the momentum is going against us, better post nothing!
    :stuck_out_tongue:
    i'm goingto look like a total moron if it's ladd/wis/scare after all, of course :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: Now THERE is a game state read that you can get behind to basically lock in wiggles as wolf. This theory wolf team has 2/3 members play it exactly the wrong way? And yet still is on verge of sweep? SUUUUUURE...
    Wiggles is forced to argue the point by his position, but it’s fairly self evidence that it’s an EXTREMELY dubious point, which if anything should be considered a point against him not for him
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:54 PM
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785293
    WUT
    this feels like town!phi crapping on town!me giving reasoning that boils down to "yes the smarter people should be listened to and held to account when wrong"
    :man_shrugging:
    COMMENTARY: Yeah I'm not still irritated about being shat on and called an obvious wolf for openly wanting to engage with the smarter players on the board in that light game last year...
    Also I feel like posts like “this is the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen in any game ever” are v/v engagements WAAAAY > rand, though I’m too lazy to bother looking it back up to validate
    Quote Originally Posted by IBA (#3754)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3751)
    oh yeah there is also the fact that wiggles has never ever ever misread me in his life afair

    and he had me as lock town all game

    you think he is a villager wrong for the first time in his life or just a wolf?

    you think me/wisdom/scare killed the guy who was voting wiggles for sure tto follow some great masterplan?

    you think wiggles made an horrible horrible vote to bring us to triple lylo as a villa or maybe he is just a wolf?
    This is maybe the worst argument I’ve ever heard in a game of mafia. I appreciate the effort you’re putting in and that your teammates have gone AWOL but still
    it might be low key hilarious if the team was wiggles/wisdom/scare
    i don't think that team crushes this board tho
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785298
    if i was wolf!dave and IBA-ladd was v/v i'd hammer pretty darn soon...
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3759)
    we are lynching iba tomorrow btw
    i am done with him
    COMMENTARY: This is why I'm not actually a good wolf player (ok, ONE reason). In dave shoes I'd cut bait with wiggles in a reasonably decent looking manner (or TRY to do so) and try and have ladd/IBA mislynch each other in f5. Dave declines the bait and wins.

    GeneralHankerchiefYesterday at 2:57 PM
    crunch time smith
    what's your team
    FOR GLORY gimme your team
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:57 PM
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785300
    "allow me to make an observation about your seemingly low-quality town play while pretending it's wolf play"
    Game Thread: Tourmaline Mountainous Test Game! - Page 76
    #3760 Posted by: wiggles1993

    It still sounds like ypure talking like youre mad at a villager rather than thinking he's scum lol. Come on guys you have 1h left

    COMMENTARY: This is literally a blatant critique of bad town play.
    If it's wolf play, then he's pretending to be a salty villager, and town!wiggles could comment on that fakery (either by like "solid ATE pretense" or "lol look at this $%#! ATE" or something like that, because if ladd is a wolf then that MUST be the relevant context)
    Wiggles' post could not POSSIBLY be any more divorced from actual villager headspace in this spot. Just a flat out wolf claim.
    GeneralHankerchiefYesterday at 2:58 PM
    no conditionals, no ways out
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:58 PM
    wiggles/dave

    COMMENTARY: This was BEFORE dave voted too.
    GeneralHankerchiefYesterday at 2:58 PM
    gimme your three
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:58 PM
    hrm...
    $%#!, idk if it's wisdom or scare or iba
    i WANT it to be yeti for lulz but don't think she's a wolf
    $%#! it, wiggles/dave/wisdom
    don't spoil
    GeneralHankerchiefYesterday at 2:58 PM
    same team I guessed upon coming here
    interesting
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 2:58 PM
    but lol low confidcne here
    yah that sounded familiar :stuck_out_tongue:
    wisdom BY FAR the weakest of the 3
    i feel like IBA rolling in the badtown
    i feel like dave wolfier than yeti
    and it's confirmed they're not w/w
    could easily see scare isntead of wisdom as number 3 tho
    and could fairly easily see yeti instead of dave, since if she's the wolf she probably would still sound a bit more villagery than anyone else :stuck_out_tongue:
    IBA channeling the mega tunnel energy
    COULD be fake i guess
    but gut says not fake just wrong
    :man_shrugging:
    no one pulling the plug on the day phase yet tho... :thinking:

    COMMENTARY: And there you have it. Correct 3/3 team, though it was still weak and "i don't REALLY know"...
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:03 PM
    It's been a fun game to spectate!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:03 PM
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785306
    I vaguely recall thinking IBA was wolfy in at least one of the champs games for making posts that i think were broadly like this and he flipped town
    Quote Originally Posted by IBA (#3763)
    Quote Originally Posted by IBA (#3761)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3759)
    we are lynching iba tomorrow btw
    i am done with him
    Oh look you remembered that you’re supposed to be thinking about more than today
    Hm. I guess you should have probably remembered that you would almost certainly be the NK in that scenario, though. Should have been, “Can you guys kill IBA tomorrow.”
    I don’t mean to nitpick, you’re doing a good job.
    COMMENTARY: This sort of relentless tunnel is insanely unproductive if you’re directing it at a villager. There’s really no upside to this sort of post even if it’s towards a wolf. IBA is spending his time crapping on ladd instead of being useful in anyway, even if it’s just talking to dave and yeti about things.
    i think, presuming ladd v and wiggles w, IBA is the final mislynch that people just accept as "needing" to happen
    unless he's w of course :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: I think this is reasonable at this point? Possibly wolves wanted IBA to mislynch scare in f3 instead tho. There are many, MANY boards out there that would policy lynch IBA after wiggles flipped wolf (they’d tell themselves it was for “wofly behavior” but it’s really a policy lynch that they just won’t admit to)
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785309
    i feel like ladd is mindmelding with me from beyond the grave :stuck_out_tongue:
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3764)
    sometimes i wonder if a wolf could be this obnoxious
    only sometimes though
    (except enough bad experiences have removed the sometimes, except when I get super tilted, which it sort of feels like he is here)
    "ladd vs IBA is the town on town violence that wins the game for wolves" is I think a broad prediction i'm reasonably comfortable making?

    COMMENTARY: BOOM
    (tho i think i was thinking it was an f5 thing b/c wiggles was essentially just outed and obviously gonna die because duh)
    Also, this is another instance of where pulling out of tunnels, or at least dampening what you’re saying while neck deep in one, is helpful. It’s one thing to make the wrong read here, but the behavior itself can cost your team the game if wiggles the wolf gets lynched and now everyone needs to see what comes next.
    One of the hardest things in werewolf is to be decent towards your scumreads even as you’re trying to lynch them. It’s insanely hard at times, and no one gets it right all the time. But the alternative is a massive breakdown in game state. If your target is town, they’ll get mega tilted, and the game state suffers. And if your target is wolf, either they’ll get tilted (or pretend to be) and might create sympathy from it, or they won’t care and you haven’t achieved anything.


    i could make a raed about how NO ONE feels like calming that down, but that's probably reachy and unneccessary (lots of villagers don't bother damping things down at key points imo)

    COMMENTARY: In more detail: if one of them was a wolf, then there's some incentive for wolf buddies to step in and try and dampen it, or more indirectly distract from it, etc. Far from 100% but I think there's at least small town v town points in an argument that's just increasingly allowed to fester and poison the game state. Multiple people being afk weakens it, of course, but I do think there's at least something mild to it.
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:07 PM
    That's a fair read to make!!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:09 PM
    it's probably inappropriate to read this far into it, but ladd feels a lot like my town game spirit animal here, so i'm just sort of empathizing him town
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785316
    wolf!wiggles could make this post completely irrespective of IBA's alignment i think
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggles1993 (#3769)
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3767)
    None of u are helping
    :/ IBA is killing it
    COMMENTARY: I stand by this point. sucking up to and/or making town!IBA look bad, or trying to make it look like that's what you're doing b/c IBA is a buddy, either works there
    ladd is beign increasingly obviously just a villager here
    that or he's absolutely CRUSHING it as wolf
    but "just a villager" fits wildly better
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785319
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...00#post3785300
    but which one of these psots comes from a wolf :thinking:
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3771)
    i have explained why his vote makes no sense

    i have explained why the nks only makes sense if he is a wolf (esp yog)

    i have even explained why it's possible he is being bussed

    i have showed you how he plays lylos as villa

    i told you this is not how i wolf, you didn't ask me for game but i'd have obligied

    i told you that wiggles has never misread me in his life so this makes no sense for him to be a villager

    what else do you want?
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggles1993 (#3760)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3759)
    we are lynching iba tomorrow btw

    i am done with him
    It still sounds like ypure talking like youre mad at a villager rather than thinking he's scum lol. Come on guys you have 1h left

    COMMENTARY: ladd drags his headspace across the thread as openly as humanly possible, wiggles basically claims wolf

    it's so weird to watch someone get badtunneled when you're not the person getting tunneled :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: no experience there as the receiving end of such a tunnel, no sirreee...
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785321
    the subtle villager headspace of not even having all details together clearly and then circling back to reitrate this OTHER point that's been made repeatedly
    I would gladly lose to this if it was a wolf post
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3773)
    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#3771)
    i have explained why his vote makes no sense

    i have explained why the nks only makes sense if he is a wolf (esp yog)

    i have even explained why it's possible he is being bussed

    i have showed you how he plays lylos as villa

    i told you this is not how i wolf, you didn't ask me for game but i'd have obligied

    i told you that wiggles has never misread me in his life so this makes no sense for him to be a villager

    what else do you want?
    oh yeah, i told you why i can't be with scare too
    well, not GLADLY
    but more like "i would almost always lose to this if it was a wolf post, and then probably blame my teammtes or something" :stuck_out_tongue:

    COMMENTARY: I think this is broadly correct. If I was a villager here and ladd was making those posts as wolf and wiggles as villager, I'd blame wiggles and probably also the other villagers for the lylo loss.
    He’s not being careful with his postings, he’s being free flowing and open and honest and it’s just blatantly readable at this point
    one day i really need to learn how to fake all of these kind of takes and reasonings as wolf
    :thinking:

    COMMENTARY: It's true!
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:19 PM
    Less than an hour left hype!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:19 PM
    Like ignore ladd for the moment, he’s doing a good job. Why are town scare and town wisdom awol basically all day in lylo? Why have they shown so little interest in the game after pot committing?
    ignoring "there could be a busser there"
    lots of willagers get lazy in lylo
    even more if they've voted and it's "out of their hands"

    COMMENTARY: The quote was IBA's, the rest was my response. idc, there are lots of lazy (sometimes disgustingly lazy) willagers in lylo, i've hammered some of them, you live and learn
    it's pretty squick to town read someone for not giving a $%#! in lylo
    but...
    there are only so many times you can experience lylo with ridiculously lazy fellow willagers before at the least you accept that lylo laziness is not meaningfully wolf indicative (especially w/o specific context)
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:21 PM
    Sometimes it does happen, which can be pretty unfortunate when it does!!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:24 PM
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785335
    I, for one, ALWAYS expect wolves to be low posting in a game where 3/4 lynches so far were on low posters
    wait
    Quote Originally Posted by IBA (#3782)
    Also yes wisdom and especially scare have been fairly scarce all game. Like scum do.
    d1: fable gets lynched for afk'ing
    d3: limestone lynched as a low posted
    theory wisdom/scare team decide low posting is safe??
    dampened by them both posting average instead of low d2 but jeez
    d4 they're back to doing not much of anything as well
    THIS is how the theory scum team behaves when "$%#! it, let's lynch a low poster" seems like at least part of town's process at this point?

    COMMENTARY: I think it’s fairly self-evident that the generically meaningful “scum are more likely to lurk” is much less likely to be the case in this game? It’s a relatively competent board overall, AND low posters have specifically been punished. “The wolves are low posters, just the ones we haven’t been lynching” isn’t impossible per se, but it should be the sort of thought that gets meaningfully analyzed and questioned and triaged into a “possible, but PROBABLY not the case” take. Considering it to be actively evidence towards the pet theory is unwise in this sort of game state and game history (I didn’t read back, but I did look at the EOD vote counts w/ post counts on them)
    scare if he's a wolf trying to derpclear himself
    if a villa is being sort of lazy w headspace and/or communications
    that's a neat little derpclear and walkback if scare wolf
    LIGHTLY think it's worth some villa points even if clerly he'd hvae a competent buddy who could walk him through it at this point?
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:36 PM
    How is Scare trying to derpclear himself?
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:37 PM
    thinking the team was wiggles/dave/yeti
    despite IBA' vote
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:39 PM
    Oh, right!
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:39 PM
    i suppose it's possible that scare is a wolf and was still checked out enough to miss that shrugs

    COMMENTARY: Again, think through where it makes sense as either alignemnt and why. It can’t be a strong clearing point because wolf!scare probably DOES have competent teammates advising him about stuff, and manufacturing a derp clear is actively helpful either in terms of getting villa!wiggles lynched or in terms of looking like “not the busser” on wiggles later on in the game.
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785368
    that's like... maybe sort of villagery? idk, still tend to think town!wiggles is bringing more fire here
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggles1993 (#3807)
    Its not a win we deserve, but we're not here to be ethical, just get the W
    COMMENTARY: I believe this is one of the ones where wiggles copied in an endgame post he made as villager, so gj smith for both seeing it as villagery in isolation and not changing the overall read for it
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785370

    Game Thread: Tourmaline Mountainous Test Game! - Page 77
    #3809 Posted by: DaveDob

    Alright I’ve been thinking through dinner, and I just can’t get myself to believe in a Wiggles/IBA/Scare wolf team. The thing that sealed it for me actually had nothing to do with Wiggles and more to do with IBA probably not being with Scare. I don’t ...

    COMMENTARY: This is dave's vote on ladd. SQUICK.
    yogslothYesterday at 3:42 PM
    oh $%#! there we go
    Yeti the kingmaker
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:42 PM

    let it rand
    let it RAAAAAAND
    :stuck_out_tongue:
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:42 PM

    yogslothYesterday at 3:43 PM
    I heard saying that is wolfy
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:43 PM
    did a wolf tell you that? :stuck_out_tongue:
    yogslothYesterday at 3:43 PM
    it is possibru
    yeti gonna afk it
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:44 PM
    if ladd is a wolf, then calling IBA badtown is a really nice touch on waht town!him should think there
    id hammer wiggles here (unless i was a wolf ofc :stuck_out_tongue: )
    let me get this straight
    lime/fable/psycho/chem had wiggles v
    dya/yog/zack/vigg had wiggles w
    who to believe... :thinking:
    i mean fable and his like 7 posts or w/e probs didn't even have a real read there lol
    https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post3785399
    in sympathy to the dead villas i want this to be a reaction test
    in sympathy to hilarity i want this to be true :stuck_out_tongue:
    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti (#3834)
    I'm gonna let it rand
    yogslothYesterday at 3:50 PM
    hahahahahahah
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:54 PM
    i will say, fwiw, that for all of "it's gotta be ladd/wisdom/scare" i don't really recall much MEANINGFUL digging into said theory team (beyond IBA shooting down ladd's "here's why not" bit)?
    yogslothYesterday at 3:54 PM
    so who's the mafia, smith?
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:55 PM
    lazy guessing wiggles dave wisdom
    but wisdom could EASILY be wrong
    maybe
    wisdom
    scare
    IBA
    for last one?
    mth
    yeti baically lock clear at this poitn
    or mega troll
    Mist1422Yesterday at 3:56 PM
    down to the wire indeed
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:56 PM
    yeah
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:56 PM
    That's how it'll likely be, yeah!!
    Mist1422Yesterday at 3:56 PM
    how is IBA making a mechanical argument in mountainous pls explain
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:56 PM
    mechanics based on lock votes
    ArapocalypseYesterday at 3:57 PM
    -tension tension tension-
    Mist1422Yesterday at 3:57 PM
    oh fair
    mhsmith0Yesterday at 3:57 PM
    HYPE HYPE HYPE
    (i blame coronavirus situation for distracting me from work enough to force me to spend the afternoon watchign this game)
    :stuck_out_tongue:

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