Honestly feel more confident on Quinn reading that ISO than I do moth. But idk.
Type: Posts; User: SmartBomb
Honestly feel more confident on Quinn reading that ISO than I do moth. But idk.
This game is weird, there's just too much town on town violence. The wagons... they're all full of high villagery people and are pure on people.
Like, the Quinn wagon that flashed has the unflipped people of me/SK/TSP. We're likely all town. But moth called that up to bring attention to it.
Quinn feels like a valid roundbox partner in this ISO. Just reading through his progression makes me feel that's the case.
Everything follows here. Except roundbox is suddenly in the lower category for some reason. Zone becomes unreadable... but that's fine. He mentions feitan for some reason.
Zone if TL is town
CV if TL is town
Quinn keeps reading roundbox as vaguely townie (except for his GTH reads when we pressured him late Day 1, where he... suddenly has roundbox as mildly wolfy?) but always puts him on the "needs to ISO" burner. And then suddenly, when roundbox is outed, TMQ has no hesitation and just plonks his vote and crows about how we've caught a scum.
I don't know how much weight I should put into this, this is similar to MM/TSP interactions. But it's a thing.
idk. If we're not lynching JOATs we probably lynch here. But roundbox lynch, prolly.
Like OK if we live in a RB scum world we have
Spewed out villa
High tone villagers
Weird interactions, probably gets lynched in this world cause we bash our heads against a wall and nothing sticks
Is this really it???? This doesn't feel right
this is probably just scum regardless
I think if we look at this, I don't know if w!IainC is aware of this but IainC literally can't win if roundbox flips wolf and moth is his partner. It's dummy $#@! though, I don't think IainC is aware.
That doesn't mean he autobusses. Idk.
I think it's most likely RB/Moth. I could make up a Vids world but. OK maybe if he's paired with SK. This is a stupid ass world.
The third is... I'm unsure. Quinn has to be playing a very good scum game to make it this far with all this effort. His reaction to the claim was muted, he spent more time on IainC than he did thinking about the claim. So it's not like, a good reaction, but I can't say it's a bad reaction either.
Doubts are creeping into my mind about SilverKeith but he never gets upset with either RB or Moth at separate points in the game.
Can't think of anyone else that fits a trio though.
Feel like we're going too hard on pairings though, just lynch wolves. But. Mm. I guess you're likely to die at some point, I suppose. Can't begrudge you your solve time.
This is so dumb, it's probably just roundbox.
Like a team is probably roundbox/moth/...idk. AXIS? I can't really get my head around it. IainC? IainC keeps following roundbox's statements like they're gospel or something, if roundbox is scum we probably lynch them for clarity but I don't think it's a hit.
Captain Video is a mess. What sort of team could this be?
And TSP is like. MM and IainC. I feel discomforted by this concept and I don't really want to touch it.
Honestly. You're looking at me like I'm going back to TSP here. But no, my current is at Capt Video, lol. But yeah, probably just roundbox.
Idk we should lynch the least villagery person in these claims? Or do we just lynch the least villagery person outside these claims, be cowards for the third day in a row and vote off IainC?
$#@! lol. I'm sure a hard decision will be made while I'm asleep, maybe you'll hammer while I'm sleeping over this.
Where did I say in my last few posts that I thought roundbox was the wolf?
I specifically said you two were not w/w.
Ok but you're jumping here. Why do you believe RB over TSP? I didn't actually end with a conclusion of which one is the right claim.
You need to make a clear post on these claims, IainC. Enunciate which one you feel is correct, and why.
I don't get it either though as well. If tony is the wolf, he gets lynched, then we chain into IainC, then what, we have two mislynches left? Is the pressure I put on MM -> tony that scary? Zero chance, imo. Who even survives two mislynches?
Or tony sets up a lynch on roundbox, feels like he can duel with CV and doesn't nightkill him, and tries to mislynch him?
11->9->7, we are in LYLO. But the most likely answer is just 11->9, lol. This doesn't feel like a winning play from tony.
Maybe it's Vids. Idk. Vids handled his claim decently well, again, he doesn't need to claim a motion detect, but he did anyways. Things pointing here are the two nightkills. Well, one. If Vids was setting this up he could kill whoever and claim JOAT anyways.
Mrrr. Lemme boot up my personal VCA machine? It probably won't tell me anything but.
Idk if this is trauma speaking but.
I think. roundbox is sounding very spookily similar to Trustworthy Liberal. And I'm having flashbacks. And I don't like it.
It's the whole question. Typical to mafia games. An unstoppable force; that would be scum bussing three times in a row. You don't believe it. But then you have just villagery behaviour under pressure. And something has to give.
It's the same here. For both TSP and CV, the mechanics of how their claims would be fake are very stupid to think about. And yet... roundbox's claim and behaviour does give me pause. The N2 doc on me is just very stupid. Using a doc on N2. And also using a doc on me on N2.
And the vibe just feels like villager caught. I'm scratching my head.
I'm running out of posts. Not sure how much I can add.
Here are my vague thoughts about where I want to go given what's just happened:
- CV wolf. I find this just incredibly hard to believe. Maybe the wolf team knew roundbox was a JOAT and just took a bet, but it seems very unlikely. We can, in poker terms, level for the unlikely chance CV is holding pocket aces. But this is a stupid road to go down on and I don't really feel like anything CV has done has pointed this way. I want to hold on to my CV villageread from earlier anyways.
- TSP wolf. Here's what I don't get and I hate harping on the same damn horse over and over again. I've done the work, if TSP is a wolf, MM is a wolf. TSP/MM are inextricably linked and TSP outing is not only dumb for his towncred, it's also dumb for the two people remaining who are locked in a TSP/MM world, cause it solves the game pretty well for us.
If TSP isn't with MM and is an independent wolf, like, maybe. But that means uhm, who. I'm not really sure.
Anyways let's get out of blinker territory cause like, that's all just patently ridiculous. The gameplan for w!TSP here is to mislynch roundbox, kill CV (cause there's no way in hell he's getting lynched lol) and lolcat. This still leaves us with a buffer of one mislynch and we're pretty set. So I don't know why tony does this, he's not under real pressure and he doesn't collapse here.
Idk. How tony handled the claim from CV's claim up till now is decently JOATy. I'm willing to believe this.
- roundbox wolf. This is obviously the easiest world and I'm not so shocked about roundbox carrying the kill now, it seems logical if roundbox is trying to soft JOAT. If he gets MD'd, it's the safest place.
roundbox feels caught, but I don't really want to put stock in it. Things like suggesting everyone lives another night is kinda weird cause he's not thinking that hard and not thinking TSP is a wolf. But I'm not sure. That's very prescriptive.
roundbox's actions are very HOYA theoremable, and if you don't know what that is, listen. Doccing me is a stupid action, why would he fakeclaim that? It's... not right, how does that work, as mafia you KNOW I'm getting set up as a suspect, why in the world would you claim to doc me, it's stupid? The better thing is that roundbox clearly didn't know I was getting set up coming in today, so that definitely correlates. Like if he's setting his claim up before he enters he shouldn't claim a doc on me. Why does he ever claim he used a doc anyways? Cause of a roro post? Does he take notice of that as a wolf and is he slowly setting up a claim? Or is he just the JOAT making the claim?
I'm... decent with mechanics. Now that I'm writing this out this is triggering all my alarm bells. This doesn't feel right.
The most ironic thing is that the biggest thing speaking to roundbox's innocence is... this post.
Mmm. I've written this post but. Uhm.
I kinda want to ignore claims and lynch IainC, lol. I can't make a decision with these three, I keep typing out roundbox v reasons and I'm outlevelling myself. IainC might actually be correct here, lol.
CAN WE NOT HAMMER THIS PLEASE. SOMEONE UNVOTE
Ok. But the thing is, to me there's not really a reason to try and mechanically solve anything. If I was in your position, TSP is scum, locked. I don't need an extra night to answer that.
Moth, please unvote right now.
Ok. I find it strange why you didn't re-evaluate when my pet push flipped town.
Roundbox here's the deal. There's scum in here. We need the flip. And I really don't think it's Video.
Circumstances point to you. But if you are town, it doesn't even matter to me cause this is a 1-for-1 trade and this is fine to me. We have the mislynch to spare.
That's where I'm at.
Not gonna lie I find it hard to believe you doc me over SK. Can you sell this?
And more importantly, why did you doc N2.
No I mean. Who did you doc N2.
Say you track TSP.
Congrats, you now know CV is a wolf. What now?
Swap out TSP/CV for each and you get the problem.
I mean regardless of his alignment roundbox is panicking. I can let this go as not a perspective slip.
I'm busy so I can't reply to much, RB. Idk what to say to you tbh.
If CV literally claims a MD when he doesn't need to and it just randomly hits one of the two JOATs I think this would be the peak of this champs season. We don't need semis or finals. The season's over.
Other, more sane people will tell you to let the JOAT live cause of lost ability equity.
There is a world where Tony lynches roundbox, then CV, and then we move into LYLO. That's the only +EV world for Tony. But I should not have my blinkers on. This is a dumb attempt.
TSP's claim timing is only suspicious cause I'm still looking at it with residual bias. He could have just, not claimed.
I also don't think he wins a cc battle with CV, ever. I find it very unlikely.
The thing is with lynching outside is that we feel kinda lost right now aiming outside without knowing which wolf is in the JOATs. And mathematically it's worse chances to hit outside the JOAT claims anyways.
Also like, either it's roundbox or its Tony to me. It's never CV. Which means this is really lynch-for-lynch, and given how this gamestate has played out, it's probably just RB.
Idk may need to think about it.
roundbox, what do you have to say in your defense?
From your perspective either CV binked one of the most brutal 1 in 4s when he really didn't actually need to, he could've claimed JOAT and walked off.
Or Tony is saccing himself for 2 JOATs when the game is still going strong for his alignment, the wolves.
If you have an explanation for this...?
I'm just amused, not shocked.
Vaguely gonna guess that roundbox was always setting up for a JOAT claim which was why he could get md'd and maaaybe answer a cc battle.
What does W!Tony even do here? Lynch a JOAT, kill the other JOAT, and die? That's a huge moral boost for us tbh, we're looking for a wolf to start with, and we still have a mislynch left until LYLO. And Tony's the wrong one to do this. As much as I'd like to, I really can't see it.
I would genuinely like to see the scumchat where they decided having roundbox carry the kill was a good idea. Like, why.
I'm also kind of shocked that we actually got a motion detect off. Not just a track, but a motion detect.
This is irritating. I enjoy being wrong I suppose.
If Tony was holding the claim for pressure, which was my read, and not that he was claiming JOAT, roundbox is never the correct lynch. Someone will have to cc him to change my mind. So Tony, $#@! or get off the pot, cause the implication from your last post is that you aren't the JOAT.
Any hiding JOAT should also cc right now.
TSP, hard cc or stop.
ngl Quinn I thought you were the other JOAT. Call back later, just trying to sort things out right now. Don't want to lynch you today either way.
lets play slightly contrarian cause tsp's in the charge role this time
in what world does a team with roundbox on it get roundbox to carry the kill
just put me in the PoE tho if roundbox is scum I'm getting really tired of trying to be right and just being very, very wrong
I don't think roro is scum. Can explain later but while I was working I was shuffling my townreads and roro actually ended up on top above everyone else.
Could be moth. I. Suppose. Big yikes. Ugh.
I don't want to talk about what Tony just said fwiw. It gives roundbox extra options.