Search:

Type: Posts; User: Arete

Page 1 of 60 1 2 3 4

Search: Search took 0.12 seconds.

  1. Replies
    207
    Views
    1,470

    if you don't do better than katze we're banning...

    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#167)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chloe (#166)
    Quote Originally Posted by Naoto Shirogane (#162)

    Are we going to see you participate in Champs next (technically: this) year?
    thats up to the rest of fol
    (and also depends on my schedule)

    but maybe
    so you mean

    "yes, unless my schedule interferes"

    gl in champs sister ily
    if you don't do better than katze we're banning you from FoL
  2. Replies
    207
    Views
    1,470

    D:

    Quote Originally Posted by Chloe (#149)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#140)
    why did you get banned from Club Penguin?
    i said a bad word 😔
    D:
  3. Replies
    207
    Views
    1,470

    why did you get banned from Club Penguin?

    why did you get banned from Club Penguin?
  4. Replies
    207
    Views
    1,470

    what's your most controversial forum mafia...

    what's your most controversial forum mafia opinion?

    what's your least controversial forum mafia opinion?
  5. Replies
    207
    Views
    1,470

    was anything about running the new site easier...

    was anything about running the new site easier than you expected? harder? if you could go back in time and have an extra month of preparation time what would you do differently?
  6. Replies
    207
    Views
    1,470

    what is your favorite type of bread?

    what is your favorite type of bread?
  7. idk probably a fair amount? definitely more than...

    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#1)
    how many hours a day do you spend playing mafia per day?
    idk probably a fair amount? definitely more than 2 hours, probably less than 14 hours? it would be hard to get a good estimate even if I were carefully tracking it because some of that is 'trying to catch up on the thread while periodically getting distracted by Tetris' or whatever. less at night than during the day, I tend to use night phase as my Catch Up On IRL Obligations time


    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#1)
    how much time do you want to spend?
    as much as I can while still also doing all the other things I want to do, I don't have a specific hour target

    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#1)
    how much time do you think people should be spending?
    what is the minimum amount of time someone should spend on a game iyo?
    probably depends on their reading speed/writing speed/coming-up-with-new-thoughts speed? like obviously* unless it's a mash or mash-like game everyone should be spending enough time to read the whole thread, and people should be spending enough time to Reasonably Contribute (which I'm loosely defining here as 'making their alignment at least theoretically readable' and 'contributing some form of new insight' for town), but how much time it takes to do that is going to vary

    *I am told this isn't actually obvious
  8. Replies
    246
    Views
    2,251

    if you were an alien shapeshifter, but you could...

    if you were an alien shapeshifter, but you could only shift shape once, what would you shapeshift as?
  9. Replies
    780
    Views
    34,698

    Sticky: Can you merge the entire Anni DVC pinlist into 1...

    Quote Originally Posted by c4e5g3d5 (#755)
    This is my fault for nominating 113 with the entire anni DVC pin list
    Can you merge the entire Anni DVC pinlist into 1 image
  10. Replies
    246
    Views
    2,251

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/75092519285...

  11. Replies
    246
    Views
    2,251

    you would think but somehow that doesn't stop...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hally (#114)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#113)
    Quote Originally Posted by Hally (#99)
    Quote Originally Posted by Syn (#97)
    what is a belief you held as a teenager that you no longer do?
    that my 20s would be fun
    what belief that you hold now do you expect you will be least likely to hold in ten years?
    if i knew what i wouldn’t believe in 10 years i imagine i would stop believing in it now
    you would think but somehow that doesn't stop people
  12. Replies
    246
    Views
    2,251

    what belief that you hold now do you expect you...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hally (#99)
    Quote Originally Posted by Syn (#97)
    what is a belief you held as a teenager that you no longer do?
    that my 20s would be fun
    what belief that you hold now do you expect you will be least likely to hold in ten years?
  13. Replies
    246
    Views
    2,251

    If you could change one rule on MU (either adding...

    If you could change one rule on MU (either adding a rule that doesn't exist, or taking away/modifying a rule that does), what would it be?
  14. Replies
    78
    Views
    1,297

    ﹕) ﹕D

    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#63)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arapocalypse (#62)
    Mafia origin story?!
    when i was 13/14, i was hanging out on an online chatroom site called "XAT", when a friend of mine sent me a link to an epicmafia game and asked me to play with him. i joined the game, and i was instantly hooked. i loved it so much that i continued playing epicmafia games on my own, and i've been playing mafia on a regular basis ever since then

    i wonder what i would be doing right now if my friend never linked me to that epicmafia game lol

    Quote Originally Posted by Arapocalypse (#62)
    Thoughts on axolotls?
    how can u not love this face?

    ﹕) ﹕D
  15. Replies
    12,587
    Views
    65,287

    Completed joke feedback: stop signing up to hydra games...

    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#12557)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#12555)
    btw if anyone has feedback for me on how to improve I'm always open to it!!!!

    and let me know if you want feedback on your own play and I will Do My Best
    give me feedback

    your feedback is to not bully me
    joke feedback: stop signing up to hydra games with polarized people unless you're willing to bet on a townrand

    serious feedback:

    I don't know how hard you were trying not to be an outed wolf but your read on me was legitimately outing (not because you were scumreading me but because of why you were scumreading me, I think I did a bad job of explaining that in game because I didn't know how to say it in a way that was persuasive rather than 'oh so you're salty you're cftwr????' I'm not sure if 'don't make reads that are outing to people who know you' is super actionable, but.

    IMO trying to die over Mich-El was a misplay, even if you were D1'd that slot was never living past day 3 whereas you theoretically had some amount of potential to go on beyond that. Roleblockers are cool but not that cool. That said, outing the tracker was definitely good, so maybe it was worth it?

    I also think you voting Mich-El at EoD1 was -EV, specifically given that you weren't expecting to live past day 2 -- if bussing isn't going to give you enough cred to survive day 2, you might as well powerwolf for the free misexe (+ having a night with an alive roleblocker)

    I don't know how useful any of that was, a lot of it was pretty game specific

    @katze
  16. Replies
    12,587
    Views
    65,287

    Completed btw if anyone has feedback for me on how to...

    btw if anyone has feedback for me on how to improve I'm always open to it!!!!

    and let me know if you want feedback on your own play and I will Do My Best
  17. Replies
    12,587
    Views
    65,287

    Completed gg everyone! well played Mac 🧡

    gg everyone! well played Mac 🧡
  18. Postgame#22458

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed Well it's sort of hard to calculate because e.g....

    Quote Originally Posted by Secondhand Revenant (#22452)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#22444)
    Quote Originally Posted by Secondhand Revenant (#22442)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#22439)
    I think there's an interesting disconnect between how many people are viewing town gaining their initial lead, and how they are viewing the remaining wolves managing to take it from a 34-3 situation at EoD2 to a 2v2 situation at SoD5. When people are talking about the former situation, they say, 'oh, the mechanics weren't really townsided at all, really the issue was that town played well and wolves played poorly, maybe if wolves didn't want to die they should have been villagerier or posted more.' When people are talking about the latter situation, they say 'oh, the fact that wolves were able to come back from such a bad position proves that the setup was actually wolfsided, only a wolfsided setup would have allowed something like that to be possible,' never 'the mechanics weren't really wolfsided at all, the issue was that wolves were playing well and town didn't catch them.' In both cases, the side that was at the time playing better was able to gain some additional advantages due to (a) mechanics that favored them (b) the other side failing to make proper use of their mechanics, and frankly if you feel like people critiquing the townsidedness of the setup are being unfair to the villagers who played well, and you're simultaneously saying that the only reason wolves were able to come back was that the catchup mechanics were just so wolfsided, then you are at best being similarly unfair to Macdougall, Quas, and Triplehaven.

    Personally I don't think that it's particularly hard to understand the concept that 'team x played poorly/team-not-x played well' and 'the overall mechanics of the setup are team-x-sided' can simultaneously be true, and that one is not evidence against the other.
    I don't think it's hard to look at the percent of town kp that hit properly and decide if the situation seemed right but here we are. We can look at how well the mechanics were used and then try to decide if the result seems right from them
    I think that just calculating the percentage of {town KP that was used} that {hit a wolf} is kind of reductive though, that doesn't account for the fact that one of the major factors allowing Mafia making such a comeback was town failing to use most of the KP it had access to
    Also wait, where are you getting the idea it didn't use *most* of the kp it had access to? You're just exaggerating at that point
    Well it's sort of hard to calculate because e.g. with suicide bombs every villager has access to 2KP but sometimes it's the same 2KP as another villager and obviously it's not nearly as good as having 2 vig shots, and I don't know things like how many people submitted in the n2 fight, but thinking about it more you're correct that town used more than half of its total KP, thank you for the correction

    It would probably be more accurate to say 'town used less than half of its optional KP after D2' or 'town failed to use a substantial portion of its KP,' apologies for not just saying one of those things initially
  19. Postgame#22444

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed I think that just calculating the percentage of...

    Quote Originally Posted by Secondhand Revenant (#22442)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#22439)
    I think there's an interesting disconnect between how many people are viewing town gaining their initial lead, and how they are viewing the remaining wolves managing to take it from a 34-3 situation at EoD2 to a 2v2 situation at SoD5. When people are talking about the former situation, they say, 'oh, the mechanics weren't really townsided at all, really the issue was that town played well and wolves played poorly, maybe if wolves didn't want to die they should have been villagerier or posted more.' When people are talking about the latter situation, they say 'oh, the fact that wolves were able to come back from such a bad position proves that the setup was actually wolfsided, only a wolfsided setup would have allowed something like that to be possible,' never 'the mechanics weren't really wolfsided at all, the issue was that wolves were playing well and town didn't catch them.' In both cases, the side that was at the time playing better was able to gain some additional advantages due to (a) mechanics that favored them (b) the other side failing to make proper use of their mechanics, and frankly if you feel like people critiquing the townsidedness of the setup are being unfair to the villagers who played well, and you're simultaneously saying that the only reason wolves were able to come back was that the catchup mechanics were just so wolfsided, then you are at best being similarly unfair to Macdougall, Quas, and Triplehaven.

    Personally I don't think that it's particularly hard to understand the concept that 'team x played poorly/team-not-x played well' and 'the overall mechanics of the setup are team-x-sided' can simultaneously be true, and that one is not evidence against the other.
    I don't think it's hard to look at the percent of town kp that hit properly and decide if the situation seemed right but here we are. We can look at how well the mechanics were used and then try to decide if the result seems right from them
    I think that just calculating the percentage of {town KP that was used} that {hit a wolf} is kind of reductive though, that doesn't account for the fact that one of the major factors allowing Mafia making such a comeback was town failing to use most of the KP it had access to
  20. Postgame#22439

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed I think there's an interesting disconnect between...

    I think there's an interesting disconnect between how many people are viewing town gaining their initial lead, and how they are viewing the remaining wolves managing to take it from a 34-3 situation at EoD2 to a 2v2 situation at SoD5. When people are talking about the former situation, they say, 'oh, the mechanics weren't really townsided at all, really the issue was that town played well and wolves played poorly, maybe if wolves didn't want to die they should have been villagerier or posted more.' When people are talking about the latter situation, they say 'oh, the fact that wolves were able to come back from such a bad position proves that the setup was actually wolfsided, only a wolfsided setup would have allowed something like that to be possible,' never 'the mechanics weren't really wolfsided at all, the issue was that wolves were playing well and town didn't catch them.' In both cases, the side that was at the time playing better was able to gain some additional advantages due to (a) mechanics that favored them (b) the other side failing to make proper use of their mechanics, and frankly if you feel like people critiquing the townsidedness of the setup are being unfair to the villagers who played well, and you're simultaneously saying that the only reason wolves were able to come back was that the catchup mechanics were just so wolfsided, then you are at best being similarly unfair to Macdougall, Quas, and Triplehaven.

    Personally I don't think that it's particularly hard to understand the concept that 'team x played poorly/team-not-x played well' and 'the overall mechanics of the setup are team-x-sided' can simultaneously be true, and that one is not evidence against the other.
  21. Postgame#22403

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed With regards to reason 1, isn't that always true...

    Quote Originally Posted by bopolis (#22377)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#22366)

    The standard rule of balance I was taught is that wolf killpower and village killpower should be roughly equivalent. Obviously there is room for a reasonable amount of variance here (e.g. any vanilla vig setup) but village had more killpower from the green light event alone than wolves had from factional kills all game, so I don't think it's really reasonable to treat that like it was some sort of insurmountable, godlike catch-up mechanism.
    This is more or less accurate(ie balanced kp is villageKP-wolfKP=0).

    The reason why there were twice as many greenlights than redlights is because greenlights do not equal 1 village killpower. There are two reasons this is so. 1) Village lack perfect information so they can't direct their killpower as efficiently as wolves(who have perfect info) can, and 2)Wolves had the ability to get this killpower.


    For reason 1) I believed that the village inefficiency and wolf inefficiency(due to not being able to target yet still in theory not target wolves) roughly was equivalent (ie cancelled each other out). Since they cancel eachouther out I determined that redlights equal 1 wolf kp and greenlights are less than 1 village KP because wolves should get them some percentage of the time.


    Now, for reason 2, I thought a sound way to figure out how often a villager would get a greenlight more so than a wolf would just to go by the percent of villas in the game on day 2-the % of wolves which was roughly 29%.

    Then I took the desired amount of death wanted on day 2(40% of 70=28); and figured out that wolves should get 9 redlights and there should be 19 greenlights up for grabs. I Thought that it was reasonable for wolves, who made up almost 30% of the players) to be able to get 26% of the green lights which would make the killpower effectively equivalent(26% of 19 is roughly 5 and 19-5=9+5). It did not pan out that way though.

    this was where my head was at when determining how the lights were distributed between red and green

    @Arete

    Quote Originally Posted by bopolis (#22379)
    Quote Originally Posted by bopolis (#22377)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#22366)

    The standard rule of balance I was taught is that wolf killpower and village killpower should be roughly equivalent. Obviously there is room for a reasonable amount of variance here (e.g. any vanilla vig setup) but village had more killpower from the green light event alone than wolves had from factional kills all game, so I don't think it's really reasonable to treat that like it was some sort of insurmountable, godlike catch-up mechanism.
    This is more or less accurate(ie balanced kp is villageKP-wolfKP=0).

    The reason why there were twice as many greenlights than redlights is because greenlights do not equal 1 village killpower. There are two reasons this is so. 1) Village lack perfect information so they can't direct their killpower as efficiently as wolves(who have perfect info) can, and 2)Wolves had the ability to get this killpower.


    For reason 1) I believed that the village inefficiency and wolf inefficiency(due to not being able to target yet still in theory not target wolves) roughly was equivalent (ie cancelled each other out). Since they cancel eachouther out I determined that redlights equal 1 wolf kp and greenlights are less than 1 village KP because wolves should get them some percentage of the time.


    Now, for reason 2, I thought a sound way to figure out how often a villager would get a greenlight more so than a wolf would just to go by the percent of villas in the game on day 2-the % of wolves which was roughly 29%.

    Then I took the desired amount of death wanted on day 2(40% of 70=28); and figured out that wolves should get 9 redlights and there should be 19 greenlights up for grabs. I Thought that it was reasonable for wolves, who made up almost 30% of the players) to be able to get 26% of the green lights which would make the killpower effectively equivalent(26% of 19 is roughly 5 and 19-5=9+5). It did not pan out that way though.

    this was where my head was at when determining how the lights were distributed between red and green

    @Arete
    In retrospect i should have taken into account that even when wolves win them, greenlights arent as efficient as straight wolf KP becaue of their public nature.
    With regards to reason 1, isn't that always true of village killpower? Village never has perfect information, and that general guideline was created with the understanding that this is the case.
  22. Postgame#22371

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed The fight event night 2 was real, it gave a 10%...

    Quote Originally Posted by xander biscuits (#22368)
    So the "attack someone with a knife" thing was completely fake yeah? Same with the marbles game? All just subterfuge to mask the fact that the wolves had so much kp?
    The fight event night 2 was real, it gave a 10% chance of killing anyone you targeted, stacking with other people who targeted the same person (e.g. if three people target the same person it has a 30% chance to kill, not 3 10% chances to kill).

    No one died from losing the games played in the Marbles event on N3 but people could die from choosing to suicide (however, no one did).

    The knife event N4 was real but didn't really affect anything since most people chose to protect.
  23. Postgame#22366

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed Apologies if I was unclear -- I certainly don't...

    Quote Originally Posted by alexa (#22361)
    The "red light" mechanic on day 2 did not allow us to target our kills very precisely, as we had to submit time slots at least five minutes in advance. This meant that our red lights were likely to kill PoE villagers that we needed alive for mischops.

    The "red light" mechanic was definitely not townsided. It may have played out in a manner that was, and yes I acknowledge that it would not allow wolves to pick exactly which villagers they could kill, but the reality is that wolves should've been well aware of the time stamps and that was just wolves making mistakes, not a townsided mechanic.
    Apologies if I was unclear -- I certainly don't think that wolves dying to the red light mechanic is townsided, I think that's entirely due to the decisions of those wolves and not the result of the setup. My specific issue was that there was no way for wolves to target kills to hit towncore villagers or villagers with good reads as opposed to PoE villagers or villagers with bad reads, meaning that it was not really equivalent to wolves having a "full" nine kills.

    Quote Originally Posted by alexa (#22361)
    The "green light" mechanic was very town-favored. Even apart from the fact that all or nearly all of the vigilante shots were given to villagers, which was partially due to wolves lowposting, public dayvigs are townsided even if they are given to wolves, as wolves cannot shoot at consensus villagers without outing themselves.

    The green light mechanic was town-favored, however, it's obviously going to make a difference that all the the people who got the shots were villagers and that's not something that can be pre-determined in set-up balance. Yes wolves can't shoot at consensus villagers w/out outing themselves but that's no different from ITAs.
    I agree that the fact that the people who got the shots were villagers is part of why they were so town-favored (I addressed that in the section about unforced errors). However, I don't think it's entirely comparable to the ITA situation -- in a typical game of this size, ITAs would kill approximately 10-11 players day 2 on average, not 21, which made a big difference, and they would not be guaranteed shots, which also made a difference in their impact. Although this game was designed to have a high death rate, increasing the death rate by giving town large amounts of killpower is going to naturally favor the village. According to some of the balance discussions in the wolf channel of DVC, the ratio of how much green lights favored town was calculated by treating them as 0.7*21 village KP, because sometimes wolves would get them, but this assumption is flawed since, as I already mentioned, wolves can't really use them as wolf KP unless they want to out themselves to go 1-for-1.

    Quote Originally Posted by alexa (#22361)
    Town also had many sources of additional killpower, including the Night ITA event, the Marbles event, and the tug-of-war event. (The Marbles event additionally gave every villager a night neighborhood that they could use to solve, the majority of which were V/V.)

    Night ITA event was impossible to coordinate + part of it was to like hide the snowball mechanic, if villagers were aware that all 11 kills were wolves I think they would've looked at things differently. I didn't really follow the other events so can't speak as much but all of them weren't exclusively beneficial to villagers imo and more RNG.
    The Night ITA event being impossible to coordinate definitely made it less townsided, but if the villagers had all bothered to actually submit their shots they likely could have killed more than one of the slots in the PoE. It's definitely not true that all events were villager-favored (see the section on RNG) but many of them were.

    Quote Originally Posted by alexa (#22361)
    I understand the salt over the parity thing/having no kill later but imo the general mechanic that wolves had # of villas / number of wolves n2 and n3 that couldn't be blocked was also insanely powered and just a counterbalance to that.
    I disagree, I think the factional kill calculations largely exacerbate that by making it so that if the game is fairly evenly split wolves can hardly kill any villagers, making it highly difficult for wolves to even reach parity, let alone kill all the villagers.

    The standard rule of balance I was taught is that wolf killpower and village killpower should be roughly equivalent. Obviously there is room for a reasonable amount of variance here (e.g. any vanilla vig setup) but village had more killpower from the green light event alone than wolves had from factional kills all game, so I don't think it's really reasonable to treat that like it was some sort of insurmountable, godlike catch-up mechanism.
  24. Postgame#22360

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed well I think that depends on the sub like if...

    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#22358)
    mmm you're probably right

    my argument would be that i think a majority of the modkilled slots are likely to die to green lights anyway and thus them dying at EoD1 meant that the green lights could be used to shoot wolves instead
    well I think that depends on the sub

    like if GH (lol) subs in for Phraze and immediately starts tryharding he probably clears himself, kills some wolves, and does not get green-lighted
  25. Postgame#22357

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed imo 'modkilling as opposed to letting them exist'...

    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#22355)
    Originally Posted by Arete

    on January 7, 2022, 12:42:13 PM
    (#22354)


    Slots that did not meet the post requirement were modkilled instead of being substituted (substitutions are typically townsided), although this was announced in the sign-up thread.



    id argue this might actually be a townsided mechanic actually
    imo 'modkilling as opposed to letting them exist' is townsided and 'modkilling as opposed to force replacing' is scumsided but 'just let zero posting slots exist in a mash' is basically not something anyone does
  26. Postgame#22354

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed I'm just going to add the caveat here that I...

    I'm just going to add the caveat here that I understand that designing mashes is hard, and designing mashes with experimental mechanics and a high death rate is harder. I have certainly made many questionable decisions when designing large games, and I don't think any of the decisions here made the game literally unwinnable for either faction. Similarly, I have seen many reviewers who I respect and consider to be better reviewers than I am allow games to pass despite balance issues much more severe than anything present here. I am also coming from the perspective of a community with moderately different norms around large game design (such as generally lower KP for both alignments relative to what is standard on MU, as well as lower influence of events and other mechanics involving RNG), which may affect my assessment of the balance of this game. With that being said, I do think there are ways in which this game was imbalanced, and that the vast majority of those ways favored town.

    Before I get into that, I do want to acknowledge the argument that 'wolves played badly and that's why they lost.' I do think that many wolves (myself included) played poorly, and that that was a contributing factor in their loss. However, it can simultaneously be true that many wolves played poorly, and that the setup was townsided. Furthermore, in some ways, this argument runs both ways; people are trying to use the fact that TH, Mac, and Quas were able to bring the game to F4 as an argument that the game was wolfsided, rather than acknowledging how those players played well and fooled the town, allowing them to reach final 4. With that being said, I do think it is relevant to acknowledge the unforced errors made on both sides (to be clear, I am not equating the two, I definitely think those made by the wolves, including me, are more severe).
    • Many wolves, including myself, played in a wolfy manner and were suspected because of it, enabling town to easily kill them. Additionally, many wolves did not really try (thirteen wolves had fewer posts than the day 1 elimination).
    • Three wolves died to the red-light mechanism due to misunderstanding how it worked or not being aware of the light timings, which was entirely preventable. One wolf also deliberately attempted to die to the red light mechanism, although he did not succeed.
    • On day 2, many wolves who had come under suspicion stopped posting, despite being around (as indicated by the fact that they were posting in wolfchat). It would have been better for those largely "outed" wolves to instead spam the thread with as much nonsense as possible to increase their odds of hitting a green light and being able to shoot a clear villager.
    • On the villager side, villagers failed to use a significant portion of their killpower. This made it harder for them to eliminate the PoE or to kill wolves. It is understandable that their killpower was uncoordinated in many cases, as the thread was closed during e.g. the N2 ITA event, but that is not an excuse for failing to submit a night ITA at all.
    • The most significant example of this was the Marbles event. Theoretically, if villagers trusted Creature, and were willing to gamble on there not being a W/W pairing, every villager other than Creature could have chosen to suicide bomb their partner. As suicide kills were processed immediately, Mafia would not have had counterplay in the form of killing Creature. However, as this strategy required at least one villager in each pairing to think of it and expect every other pairing to also think of it, I do not fault villagers for failing to realize it. (This could have prevented during the design process by not making suicide kills process immediately.) Furthermore, both villagers who were partnered with wolves suspected their partners but did not suicide bomb them (including after one of those wolves accidentally copypasted a post from scum chat), and many PoE villagers chose not to suicide bomb, resulting in them dying to town killpower.
    • Five villagers were modkilled due to failing to meet the minimum post requirement on day 1.


    With all of that being acknowledged, I do think many of the mechanics were extremely -sided, primarily townsided.

    Examples of mechanics that were townsided:
    • The "red light" mechanic on day 2 did not allow us to target our kills very precisely, as we had to submit time slots at least five minutes in advance. This meant that our red lights were likely to kill PoE villagers that we needed alive for mischops.
    • The "green light" mechanic was very town-favored. Even apart from the fact that all or nearly all of the vigilante shots were given to villagers, which was partially due to wolves lowposting, public dayvigs are townsided even if they are given to wolves, as wolves cannot shoot at consensus villagers without outing themselves.
    • Town also had many sources of additional killpower, including the Night ITA event, the Marbles event, and the tug-of-war event. (The Marbles event additionally gave every villager a night neighborhood that they could use to solve, the majority of which were V/V.)
    • Although it was not townsided in this particular case, the factional kill calculation was in expectation highly village-favored. For example, if ten wolves and twenty-four villagers had died in the first two days (equivalent to the number of actual kills that happened, apart from the modkills), wolves would have had 30/10 = 3 kills on night 2, which is an extremely low number for a mash of this size. Furthermore, discounting the potential effects of modkills and events, the maximum number of wolf kills on night 1 was 2, which made it extremely difficult for us to eliminate potential threats before day 2.
    • Wolves also did not have access to factional killpower whatsoever after night 3.
    • Wolves did not have access to a "parity" win condition, which is normally standard. I didn't actually expect this to come into play when I was bringing it up as an example in DVC, but unfortunately it did.
    • Similarly, it was effectively impossible for Mafia to win prior to day 5, forcing the Mafia to be dependent on the Bridge event in order to win. In contrast, due to the lower numbers of Mafia and the high amount of town-controlled killpower, it would easily have been possible for Town to eliminate all of the Mafia members before day 5, meaning they would not have to rely on the Bridge event. In theory this could have led to extreme situations such as a villager winning a 21v1 singlehandedly, although in practice that would be extremely unlikely.


    Examples of mechanics that were wolfsided:
    • Many people have argued that the number of wolves (21/75, or 28%) was unusually high. Although the standard accepted numbers for mashes are 25-33%, I acknowledge that it had more than the theoretical minimum number of wolves. (I tried to compare it to other recent mashes but many of them have difficult-to-find reveal posts).
    • The game was mountainous, whereas normally village would have had power roles to help them.
    • The factional kill calculation, in practice, allowed wolves to gain a large number of kills on night 2 and night 3 (11 and 6 respectively), enabling wolves to simultaneously eliminate a large number of threats. Although 19 total nightkills over the course of four nights is not outside of usual variance, they are not usually quite so concentrated around night 2. Additionally, I understand why villagers are frustrated that wolves were "rewarded" for bussing (though this runs both ways, wolves are also "punished" for playing well by not being able to kill many villagers).
    • Slots that did not meet the post requirement were modkilled instead of being substituted (substitutions are typically townsided), although this was announced in the sign-up thread.


    Examples of mechanics that were heavily RNG-based or otherwise swingy but not obviously -sided in either direction:
    • The cookie mechanic was almost completely RNG based, although it ended up killing a balanced number of wolves and villagers. In this game it favored wolves, as the deepest wolf died while many PoE villagers died, but it is not intrinsically better for one side or the other.
    • The tug-of-war mechanic was town-favored, but heavily dependent on the actual numbers randed. In this case, as both wolves randed a high number, they were able to survive, whereas if they had both randed a 1, they likely would have both died.
    • The bridge event on the final day ended up being largely decided by timezones -- in a counterfactual world where Jaleb was asleep at SoD and Quas is present, Mafia would have almost certainly won, whereas the fact that the reverse was true nearly guaranteed that town won.


    Overall, although not literally every mechanic was townsided, and wolf play was certainly a contributing factor to the wolf loss, the mechanics as a whole skewed heavily townsided. I enjoyed the game for the day I was in it, and I don't want to diminish the excellent performances on either side of the game, but I can simultaneously acknowledge that the game had some major balance issues. Someone in another server I'm in said that they thought that the hosts had in some ways designed the game for host enjoyment over balance or player enjoyment, and I don't entirely disagree -- this is especially noticeable with many of the events, which were largely focused on following the flavor of what happened in the TV show, even in cases where this either introduced a heavy RNG aspect or heavily favored the village.

    Thank you to the hosts and reviewers for all of the effort you put into this game.
  27. Replies
    78
    Views
    1,297

    what's your most controversial forum mafia...

    what's your most controversial forum mafia opinion

    what's your least controversial forum mafia opinion
  28. Day 1#6543

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed legacy blast Creature blast FL4K blast ladd...

    legacy

    blast Creature
    blast FL4K
    blast ladd if he keeps being wrong or lives to d3
  29. Day 1#6510

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed this is actually unbelievable a bunch of...

    this is actually unbelievable

    a bunch of so-called "good players" circlejerking about how clever and smart they are for killing a town PR instead of ANY OF THE OBVIOUS WOLVES
  30. Day 1#6459

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed changing my shot to FL4K I think they are...

    changing my shot to FL4K I think they are openwolving the EoD to try to get a PR out
  31. Day 1#6408

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed Arapocalypse self pres

    ##Vote Arapocalypse

    self pres
  32. Day 1#6399

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed town: DZ maybe you maybe Vul scum: Creature...

    Quote Originally Posted by Happy (#6373)
    @Arete sorry for asking this when u have a buncha votes on u but can you gimme a quick legacy on ur gth towns and scum pls
    town: DZ maybe you maybe Vul

    scum: Creature FL4K

    literally all of this is in my iso
  33. Day 1#6345

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed HOW AM I NOT POSTING I AM DOING NOTHING BUT...

    Quote Originally Posted by Happy (#6331)
    Quote Originally Posted by Insaner (#6310)
    Quote Originally Posted by Happy (#6305)
    The thing is, even if they are an odd night vigi they probably die to the NK anyways in the chance they are real

    So like the slot is kinda dead anyways so I don’t really wanna vote/not vote someone based of a claim, and would generally prefer to choose to vote what I think has the highest chance of being a hit

    Unfortunately that is still the arete slot, and tbh if I end up being wrong then I’ll just admit that they’re someone I just can’t read d1 to save my life.
    Them dying to the wolf NK vs the village KP is a pretty big difference iyam
    hmmmmmm

    thats a fair point actually

    idk tho i find it weird that theyre not posting rn after claiming, it feels kinda frozen to me?
    HOW AM I NOT POSTING I AM DOING NOTHING BUT POSTING
  34. Day 1#6324

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed because who the $%#! hard-CC's a town PR in the...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus Christ (#6309)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6293)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus Christ (#6275)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6260)
    I mean he rescinded so in theory he could be a villager playing really poorly but I doubt it
    I think the more natural reaction is to yell at him to uncc not to come up with theory is the thing
    I mean while he was CCing me I didn't think he was town CCing me for no reason (and I still don't I just think it is less unlikely than I thought earlier)
    Suicidal wolf cc feels like a larger stretch tho. Like, why do you not even mention the possibility?
    because who the $%#! hard-CC's a town PR in the last 15 minutes of EOD as town
  35. Day 1#6293

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed I mean while he was CCing me I didn't think he...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus Christ (#6275)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6260)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus Christ (#6244)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6156)
    probably he is wolf with Creature and wants to save Creature from being shot

    maybe Creature is a good wolf PR or something
    See, I believe this like 0/10 times and think it's more finding reasons to justify
    I mean he rescinded so in theory he could be a villager playing really poorly but I doubt it
    I think the more natural reaction is to yell at him to uncc not to come up with theory is the thing
    I mean while he was CCing me I didn't think he was town CCing me for no reason (and I still don't I just think it is less unlikely than I thought earlier)
  36. Day 1#6260

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed I mean he rescinded so in theory he could be a...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus Christ (#6244)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6156)
    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Plum (#6130)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6106)
    Jack's claim is obvi fake, a real ONV would just CC with a bullet
    but why would a wolf need to CC you? Trading 1 for 1 as a wolf is always bad.
    probably he is wolf with Creature and wants to save Creature from being shot

    maybe Creature is a good wolf PR or something
    See, I believe this like 0/10 times and think it's more finding reasons to justify
    I mean he rescinded so in theory he could be a villager playing really poorly but I doubt it
  37. Day 1#6213

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed wolves probably don't have an angel because...

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Plum (#6182)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6156)
    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Plum (#6130)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6106)
    Jack's claim is obvi fake, a real ONV would just CC with a bullet
    but why would a wolf need to CC you? Trading 1 for 1 as a wolf is always bad.
    probably he is wolf with Creature and wants to save Creature from being shot

    maybe Creature is a good wolf PR or something
    i don't follow that take. Don't wolves like always have an angel, and doesn't that just make a 2 wolves for 1 villager trade which is even worse?
    wolves probably don't have an angel because according to the posts at the start of thread they are also allowed to vote on the collective angel
  38. Day 1#6190

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed wiggles1993 more self pres (still pretty...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jackofhearts2005 (#6168)
    Yeah, I was just kidding about the CC.

    Really I just didn’t believe Arete’s claim
    ##Vote wiggles1993

    more self pres

    (still pretty yikes from Jack though)
  39. Day 1#6156

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed probably he is wolf with Creature and wants to...

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Plum (#6130)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#6106)
    Jack's claim is obvi fake, a real ONV would just CC with a bullet
    but why would a wolf need to CC you? Trading 1 for 1 as a wolf is always bad.
    probably he is wolf with Creature and wants to save Creature from being shot

    maybe Creature is a good wolf PR or something
  40. Day 1#6134

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed View Post

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Parente (#6117)
    It's not a real claim because they would just stay hidden and shoot Arete

    $%#!s sake...
  41. Day 1#6106

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed Jack's claim is obvi fake, a real ONV would just...

    Jack's claim is obvi fake, a real ONV would just CC with a bullet
  42. Day 1#6100

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed Jackofhearts2005

    Quote Originally Posted by Jackofhearts2005 (#6053)
    Um…cc odd night vigilante.

    ##Vote Arete
    ##Vote Jackofhearts2005
  43. Day 1#6088

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed I'm staying on Wiggles for now for self pres but...

    I'm staying on Wiggles for now for self pres but I endorse the Bun CFD
  44. Day 1#6075

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed literally a blatant lie I haven't disappeared at...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunnelby (#6062)
    so whats arete done with the claim to try and save themself
    yall think the wagon is so bad and youre letting them get away with a weird claim and disappearing
    literally a blatant lie I haven't disappeared at all
  45. Day 1#6063

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed I am here

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Plum (#6046)
    @Arete if you're town i need you here mate making arguments. Make a stand and right the ship.
    I am here
  46. Day 1#6037

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed 'he just is' very convincing I don't super...

    Quote Originally Posted by alexa (#6002)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#5979)
    Quote Originally Posted by alexa (#5945)
    if we're going to let arete live i don't hate a wiggles wagon but i think arete shooting creature is objectively bad and an obvious villa so even if they're real vig im not switching if they're locked in on that shot, makes me think they're just wolf ONV
    WHY IS CREATURE OBVIOUS TOWN

    WHAT HAS HE DONE THAT'S TOWNIE
    he just is and ladd has like a close to 100% read accuracy on him so idk why you're ignoring that?

    your reasoning for wolf reading him was him saying that he was scared to rand wolf against ladd which is legitimately a towny post for him because ladd nails him LITERALLY EVERY TIME
    'he just is'

    very convincing

    I don't super trust ladd's read there because I think he might be a wolf and also he misread Creature in the hydra mash last year and when I asked him to explain his read he basically didn't

    and that's misrepresenting my case
  47. Day 1#5979

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed WHY IS CREATURE OBVIOUS TOWN WHAT HAS HE DONE...

    Quote Originally Posted by alexa (#5945)
    if we're going to let arete live i don't hate a wiggles wagon but i think arete shooting creature is objectively bad and an obvious villa so even if they're real vig im not switching if they're locked in on that shot, makes me think they're just wolf ONV
    WHY IS CREATURE OBVIOUS TOWN

    WHAT HAS HE DONE THAT'S TOWNIE
  48. Day 1#5963

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed I'VE CASED HIM LIKE SIX TIMES JFC

    Quote Originally Posted by TripleHaven (#5932)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#5924)
    'arete can just be a wolf vig who shoots town!!1!111!' THEN YOU KILL ME WHEN I SHOOT TOWN PROBLEM SOLVED

    Creature has been obvious wolf ALL GAME and everyone is just ignoring it
    can you case him or something i dont think ive read the guys posts
    I'VE CASED HIM LIKE SIX TIMES JFC
  49. Day 1#5931

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed wiggles1993 self pres

    ##Vote wiggles1993

    self pres
  50. Day 1#5924

    Thread: Squid Game Mash

    by Arete
    Replies
    22,548
    Views
    177,400

    Completed 'arete can just be a wolf vig who shoots...

    'arete can just be a wolf vig who shoots town!!1!111!' THEN YOU KILL ME WHEN I SHOOT TOWN PROBLEM SOLVED

    Creature has been obvious wolf ALL GAME and everyone is just ignoring it
Results 1 to 50 of 3000
Page 1 of 60 1 2 3 4
about us
Mafia Universe is a community hub for people who enjoy playing the forum variant of Mafia (also known as Werewolf). We offer fully automated Mafia games and a wide variety of customized features crafted to optimize your game experience. We also proudly host the Internet's only database of Mafia/Werewolf communities.

We hope you stick around!
Role of the Day
ITA Nerfer

The ITA Nerfer may each night target someone and reduce that player's basic ITA hit rate to 0% for the next day phase.