Type: Posts; User: Dolby
ngl, I could have posted early yesterday but decided to ration my posts, which probably wasn't needed.
I disapprove of bad stats but Denmon's take on that is null. Don't see anything I dislike.
-Agree with someone else's townread
-Give a pretty big "but" to debase that townread on your end
-Invalidate the justification.
Don't like the post archetype. If there were like 200 posts or something at time of this post, or the justification for the townread was something I could agree with I'd probably go hard against it, early game is hard to do stuff so *shrug*
Schwepes is going kinda hard against a new player, I'd lean towards giving Denmon's take in #18 on that that it's ultimately w/e
I think that I can sheep Kajot on Axis/Denmon meta. Kajot seems fineish I guess.
don't have time on 7th - 9th to be in
Guillo decided the kill, but I would personally have not have killed Wurzel or Panda for pretty much the reasons that Guillo made this post. I'd add to it that I personally feel that players newer a community tend to be yeeted more often for bad reasons. Ace was somebody that I briefly considered killing N6, but we both felt that Gordeau was more likely to re-ev, lead against us, and was more townread at that time to boot.
I don't want to play, bye
Don't remember the exact dynamics of the situation given that we don't have a crossvote, but Wurzel should be next to vote as somebody being voted.
Me/Ace order doesn't matter
TL;dr the fact that I was roleblocked makes it seem like it’s not them because why would they need to do that as maf? In addition to this, Ace is confirmed to not be scum roleblocker specifically
Did Panda not claim his action last night?
If so lol
Didn't Gordeau not townread Panda or am I blind?
I thought he basically said that if the team wasn't Logic/Wurzel exactly that Panda was the scum-in-there's teammate
tbh just from Wurzel's reaction rn I think that the team is Wurzel/Panda
They should crossvote, there's really just no world in which the team is exacly Ace/Guillo, which means that at least one of them has to be scum.
Also Panda, I think you're lying about not just your action history but your action itself.
Guillo, please don't vote first. It is mechanically optimal to have Panda, or possibly Wurzel do it if anyone can argue to me that he's a more consensus sus than Panda at the moment
re: Logic being least accountable action N5, yes Wurzel did claim to be the only person to visit Panda pretty early, but him claiming to be on Logic would have required a absurd large amount of liars or passive individuals for him to have been exposed, rather than one townie lying about their target for the lolz. If Guillo had lied about her coin count I would have yelled that something was of, if Logic had lied about going to Guillo I would have yelled that something was off. Because I didn't yell, it was overwhelming likely that Guillo's night result was accurate and he didn't lie about who he was targetting for a laugh, and that Logic was telling the truth about who he targetted, which would hold up just in case Wurzel and someone else (X) had lied to both have a laugh.
So, Logic was the most evidenced option to have least accountability.
So from this all this I think that Panda is roleblocker specifically.
I think that vote order should be Panda then whoever he votes for, and exempting that consideration, the vote order should probably go something like
Guys, Gals, and NB pals I believe that I have found the mafia roleblocker, and it'd explain a lot of why Panda seemed to be to way to accurate for someone with 10 posts at that time on day one. Also explains why he drops LA sus after he's no longer in danger.
I find his Hollowkatt target claim to be consistent, but his Turtle target claim to be odd, since he does not mention Turtle at any point on Day One. I'd expect, from his activity a target on LA during N1 if Panda is town, but it looks like Panda wedged in his D2 sus of Turtle into his N1 spot retroactively. I will also note, having observed the ultralight game that just ended, that I don't think that Turtle could've been called extremely inactive/slanky on D1.
Panda never claimed any action after N3 until he was forced to, in fact, the only action that he claimed was his N5 action, after Ace forced everyone to out their actions for night 5. He claimed to have been on Logic.
He then didn't claim his action history like Wurzel did.
Not only does Panda have no action accountability, he's missing night claims and all 3 of his target claims are literally the most convienient targets for avoiding accountability. In addition, his role seems to be made up to have the least accountable practical results while still being theorticially accountable under rare conditions.
But why would Panda fear being CCed? I suspect that all his actions have been made up to cover up the fact that he's roleblocking people, and needs to claim that he's not roleblocking people. Also, maybe roleblocker is only even night active or something? We've only got N2 and N6 accounted for, which seems to line up missing N4, though Esooa's claimed role could have scared them I guess?
So if you were roleblocked on a prior night I'd encourage you to claim it.
With regards to Panda being the counterwagon on D3 and D4
Time to actually read Day Three
Guillo places the first vote on Marl
Ace voted Nanook because of the last second vote swap. Honestly a pretty eh reason when Nanook switched to a town over a claimed 3p that was always gonna die sooner rather than later
Monty had some note about Ace being mech cleared but I'm really not sure I'm going to trust that since he says that Argon was locktown after Turtle's death
Guillo gives some credence to the abortive LA push which is a good look
This seems designed to get caught in a lie
Panda pushing Marl at a time when Nanook is the other option is better than the alternative I guess?
Panda seems to really want Marl dead.
Gonna just stop here, I think I've found a scum. Want to check Panda's ISO to confirm
Actually, thinking about it again I still townread Ace and Guillo but I'm retracting the team being cleared since I think that my roles info is the most valuable here and it just makes sense to block me
Scum Roleblocker/Scum Other
Ace cannot be the roleblocker since I got the coin from him. Keep that in mind
Or they put down a jailkeep on Wurzel but that's super risky given that he claimed visiting me AFTER Ace claimed with both of their claimed targets and I can't see him doing that as wolf unless Guillo swept in for damage control. Basically, think I was intentionally blocked rather than a jailkeep put down on Wurzel by scum.
I think that Logic might just be right about Ace/Panda not being a team by how consistently Ace has been pushing Panda. Even though at EoD4 LA unvoted Panda, they still depended on Nanook's vote switch to sink Marl instead of Panda (I very much doubt that LA reacted to Marl's vote within a span of 4 seconds).
This is tough
ngl kinda scared by that from Ace right there
Lendu/Wiml (neither are probs Blart)
Wiml/??? (wiml gets in government again because we can chain Chancellor -> President, assuming that Lendu doesn't shoot him)
I'm pretty sure that worst case scenario we're guarenteed a lib in the next four govs counting Ace's gov
I'd actually argue for a Lendu/Wiml, Wiml/??? chain but this is just vibes atm rather than math backed
Yeah we just win if your government is good Ace
There's no reason to test anyone else's goodness
Someone blocked me last night, or my action failed for another reason.
Tried to track Wurzel.
Also got a coin from Ace. I'm gonna assume that he didn't block me because of that.
Looking back the same case can be made, albeit less strongly, for Lendu as well, since the chances of a 3 card draw being all Skaters is elevated assuming only one of TS/Marl lied, they lied about exactly one card, and me/Turtle also didn't lie. I've talked about Turtle lying if Blart before and tbh it's not something I really want to pursue because it complicates things lol. In addition to this point though, Lendu might have a reason to say that they got 2/1 because getting a 3 card draw either locks Lendu as a liar, or an additional liar in me/TS/Marl/Turtle.
Still though, this still points to Lendu probably not being Paul Blart, just less strongly than it points to Wiml not being Paul Blart
TL;dr, Wiml probably isn’t Blart
On Wiml possibly being Paul Blart specifically, after claiming to draw 1 Cop 2 Skater I’m really not seeing it. Wiml might have his own thoughts on who’s Cop between TS and Marl and might think that Marl doesn’t put another cop in his government, but, at the start of the deck, with all Cop policies being played in a 3 card draw a pretty high probability, I think he’d rather test Csargo and if he passes Skater take cred for that and pretend he drew only one Skater, and if he’s fash face a more favorable 3/3 and claim he got all fash, regardless of how innocent he potentially views Csargo as being
This is all moot if Wiml secretly drew 3 Skatwrs, but that’s so much more unlikely than drawing 2/1
tbph, good government aside, Turtle has been under the radar enough that I'm more cautious towards him at this point
Can't really give a read though bc I still don't know which of the two or both are scum lol
What was the draw?
Oh Ace wasn't chancellor.
w/e I'm still fine with a Ace presidency
Yeah I think that chaining Ace as president is probably for the best. Don't know anything about Rask, and I'm just kinda paranoid about Tims.
tbh I want a redux of the Kpop government
DADW = dead air dead wolf/ dead air dead mafia
I used my ability on Logic last night because I thought that he was more likely to carry the kill if scum
I would suggest being on someone who maf are likely to use harming actions on rather than just straight up killing, or someone who you think is likely to fake claim being roleblocked. Looking back they probably have a roleblocker given nanook's claimed N2 action result.
Could just be DADW Guillo. Logic yeet seems to be inevitible with LA's flip
Wurzel I never voted Logic or Ace yesterday. I was on you for most of the day just to get some pressure on you as an under-considered person, and then switched LA -> you -> LA. I guess I could've stayed on you for a potential misyeet so I guess so but I still think yesterday was w/w/w
I think that Logic was just WIFOMing there yeah
Can I have both of your action histories?
Logic, did anyone besides you claim visiting LA on N1?
Yeah Ace behaviorally has been pretty townie since D1
Also I can back Logic probably visited Guillo last night and he didn’t carry the kill unless he’s with Gordeau or Tims action failed for some reason
Who else besides Logic claimed to visit LA on N1?
Yeah I think that Ace is town still
Actually Ace could have been off-kilter from a scum rand on D1 but gathered it together in later days but from what I've seen recently I think he was just busy D1 and that impacted how he felt in thread.