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  1. Postgame#2426

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Sunbae In this post to Chuck I also...

    @Sunbae

    In this post to Chuck I also inadvertently ended up writing a pretty thorough summary of what I consider scummy from my 12 years of hunting woofers. See the spoiler, click the spoilers in the spoiler.

    I probably couldn't have written a more concise summary of everything i look for that wolves do, in a single post. So that's useful if nothing else. It's almost like a condensed version of all the scumhunting bits of my guide for the town side player.

    Since it wasn't posted in postgame I just wanted to direct you to it since you seemed interested.

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#1827)
    (snip because its not relevant to postgame, and I want to highlight the bit I am referencing)

    Quote Originally Posted by UpsideDownChuck (#1814)
    I don’t know how useful this will be, but I’ll give it a shot.

    You talk about how your scum tells are scientific and probably find wolves. And in a sense, I can see how you might believe that. Some of these things wolves might do, the issue though is that town do them quite a bit too. And really if both alignments do them, and do them at close to equal rates, then they’re really properly understood as non-alignment indicative.
    They won't happen at the same rates as random chance, primarily because the behaviors are prompted by subtle differences in mindset due to the TMI wolves have and their team/alignment related goals.

    Subtle differences in mindset which are alignment indicative like not really believing your own case work against suspects, not wanting your own suspect flipped today, wanting credit for yeeting a wolf but not wanting to be alone too early, creep up in many many many games, and the tells that express those mindsets are varied.

    Examples
    Example, the tells under the category of passive aggression, are when wolves do:

    This post is odd, off, interesting, strange, weird, bizarre, I "dislike" this post, or saying it could indicate townie or scummy and having it both ways. Many others. Or when wolves berate townies for missing or being inaccurate when they accused or voted or vigged dead townies. Instead of directly accusing a townie of being scum, sometimes they just discredit their solving, or lead others to the conclusion that said player is untrustworthy and possibly scummy, while not directly doing anything about it.

    Tells under the category of wolfy content, would be when wolves do

    "I agree" and "I disagree" content, where you just +1 or gainsay whatever has already been posted rather than really substantively add to the flow of the game. It hides within consensus or it hides within the democratic process of debating things, rather than taking risks. "Talking to townies" is a category where nothing risky or conclusive or alignment indicative is even being discussed and you just pad your post count and word count for the game.

    "I like this post" style content, which doesn't lead to an alignment read and is the lowest possible risk content there is.

    "Feels / doesn't feel" "think / doesn't think" "seems like", taking two positions and hedging, are ways wolves distance themselves from having to take risky stances or make direct attacks or direct defenses of other players, avoiding calling townies wolfy with direct accusations with a strong prediction said player will flip wolf, because they know that player does not, and they have to survive the game anyway afterward. It's a way of avoiding direct blame for being wrong.

    conclusions that do not follow from the reasoning
    votes that do not follow from the process
    doing processes and then not following the conclusions with beliefs that match

    Bad acting like the wolfy "hmmm" the wolfy nervous "lol" and "this makes me feel angry" style content.

    Accusing townies of being hypocritical or Accusing townies of being inconsistent (usually to an absurd degree you cannot believe a townie has as their standard, like when someone says you're voting X for bussing, why aren't you voting Y for bussing too? Answer: because I have one vote, and because my vote isn't based off of only that one indicator, the two slots are NOT identical ever, it's unreasonable to suggest I have to treat them identically, yet wolves make this argument every other game.)

    Repeating yourself over and over without expanding upon your thoughts or advancing the solve. Wolves often sound like broken records.

    Hiding within large amounts of mechanics talk, fluff, or commentating on what has happened so far instead of reading it for alignment and solving the game, is easy content wolves generate instead of solving content. Townies do it too, but combine this with other tells.

    A read on a player going back down to null for no reason, something townies almost never do. Townies become suspects, not nulls, after you have read them town once. For someone to go from null to town and then not be town anymore, they need to be a scum read.

    Tells under the category of wolfy mindset:

    Too Much Information
    Lack of struggle to read townies town or scums scum.
    Lack of struggle to process the game in general
    Wolfy self focus
    Self identifying as "we", "us", or saying "let's", for some reason wolves really think this helps them blend in better and it doesn't.
    Putting townreads and scumreads together in clusters in order to make it so that no one read sticks out and townies have to shoot within a pool to hit a scum buddy that is being townread in that pool, or a scum buddy that is being scum read in that pool, instead of having specific and deep reasons to town or scum read each person separately.
    Planning out several days and nights in advance rather than actually believing your suspects will flip scum and the game will end, this has tripped up more than a few wolves over the years. Essentially predicting town will continue failing for a while.


    Stuff that is not so much tells but deliberate Wolf Strategies and Tactics


    • Distancing
    • Defending
    • Bussing
    • Ignoring


    (one of the above 4 or some combination thereof is always being done by every wolf toward every other wolf in every post. You are either engaging directly, indirectly, or not engaging. Your stance toward them is either null, villagery, wolfy, or kill this SOB today, no lines no waiting. Whatever combination of those stances and engagements, it falls under these 4 categories. This is simply how to sum up what the wolf plan is in a single word that can be used across all games, every game.)

    Tactics that are not tells but choices made to win a game include but are not limited to:


    • Being not very diplomatic with wolf partners or even rude and insulting because they know you're just acting or distancing anyway.
    • Counterclaiming Town power roles or fake claiming in general
    • Forcing town PRs to claim under vote pressure
    • Deliberate derp clear attempts
    • Overly diplomatic / pocketing / White knighting, each are different but all are attempts to control the vote or look better than townies who are less diplomatic, accurate, or are attacking other townies.
    • Trying to guilt trip townies for their bad reads / yeets / vig shots. (Guessing wrong has to be allowed)
    • Trying to undermine confidence of townies in their reads
    • Trying to discredit processes townies use for solving and suggest they do not solve
    • Bluffing (making deadly gambits like telling the vig to shoot you)
    • Appeal to emotion / psychological warfare (example I hate: trying to behave like youre so angry that youre being scum read that it disturbs the enjoyment of the game other players have, so they stop suspecting you in order to keep the peace) and strategies like saying "I will never play with X again because they suck at the game", a strategy my wolf partner last game I was a wolf used without consulting me for and I strongly disliked and was about to policy yeet my own partner for doing. Stuff in this category I highly advise against using and do not like to see in play.


    It's important to note that scumtells are just one of a couple of dozen different solving processes I use, I advise against using scumtells as a method without using the other methods, I also advise that townies do scumtells. If someone follows my guide, I advise at length and I specifically make a gigantic wall post or two explaining that you cannot be lazy and do scumtells as your only process, because rarely, a townie's iso will look like sloth's did this game, or inawordyes's iso in the Multiball 19er with King Bowser where IAWY was town, or how dizzymrslizzy looks every game on Giraffe. One in ten examples an iso looking that bad is just a player you haven't nulled the scumtell process on yet, who reads scummy by these time honored scumtells. It will always be inaccurate if you don't specifically exclude the folks the process should be NULL for. Find wolves yes, but hit townies as well.

    Some townies commit these tells every game because that's how they type. There's even a section explaining it's best to use these on players who you look at their town games and their town games do not commit nearly as many tells in such variety and concentration. You always have to null the scumtell process on players when it provably provides a false positive in games where they are town, and use all the other solving processes instead (which you should be doing all along anyway... never just one process to solve.)

    Regarding "not alignment indicative because both alignments do them": If townies and scums do X in equal numbers per game, but scums make up 1/3 or 1/4 of the population of the game, the behavior becomes statistically significant and THIS is why scums do not know their behavior is a scumtell or that it is alignment indicative. Just because a townie can do it doesn't mean townies do it 60 to 70 percent of the time, which would make it statistical noise.

    Every time a behavior is indicated more from scum than their lower population should suggest, meaning 40 50 60+ percent of the time, that becomes a behavior I notice is often scum indicative. Any one indicator is largely noise.

    However, when a player does 7 8 9 different things that wolves do half of the time or more, and their iso resembles a wolf iso from day 3 or later in every game I've played for years, that tells me that this person MAY be scum.

    May, meaning, could be, over 50 or 60 percent of the time, using solely the scumtell process all by itself.

    That's trash if that's all you use, if you don't want town to lose, because A) you will find wolves doing this so you will get your suspects yeeted by doing this but B) You will also get townies yeeted that wolves didn't have to work hard to cause such a yeet. And eventually you get yeeted for missing that often and doing the work of the wolves for you.

    All by itself, 50 or 60 percent accurate sucks out loud and loses games because the times it misses it does the wolves' work for you.

    However, if tells are 50 to 60 percent accurate and someone is doing 8 or 9 or 15 different things that wolves do 50 to 60 percent of the time, the odds that player is not a wolf keep dropping, especially when it isn't null for them. Each time they do something that is statistically significant that wolves do more often than a town aligned person does, it adds up until it stops being noise and starts being stuff that dunks wolves much more often than 60 percent of the time.

    In practice, what I end up finding is standard levels of tells coming from most players, on the low to middle side, and then a small number of players with concentrated scumtells.

    In the Multiball 19er, with 6 wolves, most of the wolves in that game had a wide assortment and heavy concentration of my tells, and one townie also did. One wolf had a normal concentration of tells with only one or two sharply wolfy tells, and the other was me, who knows how to dodge my own tells. I deliberately never publicly iso'ed my own partners during play because their isos contained a lot of my known tells.

    In Return of the Clowns, the entire wolf team of 3 committed lots of my tells in concentration, and Dizzy the townie also did, but by then I have already learned to null Dizzy as she reads that way every game. They ignored, distanced, bussed, and then defended, each strategy in turn all in response to what town did. Night actions also helped narrow it down.

    Wheel of Life lasted one day before wolves reached majority because it was an experimental, the two wolves in 6 names were still scummier by tell and by strategy (Delay, ignore) and overall behavior than all the townies. Less useful because tells become more telling as the game goes on.

    Love Letter mafia, Rogan committed a few sharply wolfy tells (like credit grabbing for a bus) and it ruined all the utility of his strategy of bussing Xihirli. The inactive wolf was bussed right away, and a mass claim I suggested caught another because there were too many of a certain kind of role and the whole wolf team bussed that one, and the bussing Rogan was upset at not being town read for the bussing, and sharply wolftold during that process.

    War of Princes the first wolf I yeeted did the Delay strategy and was fluffing and openly lurking rather than solving on day 2 after 3 townies had already died. Second wolf on that same team was yeeted for first defending and then bussing the first wolf with no real progression, switching to a bus as soon as the first was in trouble. Two wolves on the other team distanced from each other and Ignored their wolf PR, and the wolf PR was passive and Delayed most rounds of the game. I imagined that the two dead wolves on that team would not be trying to accuse or have scanned their deeper wolf, and that narrowed the pool I used to find the final wolf, by reading them for yeeting / jailing / scanning intent every day when asked those questions by me. It then narrowed down who the final wolf had to be to very few names and I had already determined two of them were not likely to be a wolf. I used a similar process this game to suggest the pool of wolf PRs this game was probably contained within those who have bussed Schweppes or Phraze, because the deepest wolf has to try to get deep somehow, bussing is usually how they do it.

    Fight of the Mafia the wolves Defended other wolves and attacked only townies, and even openly coordinated with opposing wolves while town was mostly inactive on day one. As soon as this was called out, they began trying to bus each other to not look connected but it was far too late for that. Town eventually found them all.

    Haunted by Slept Master Radishes got caught by doing the wolfy I agree and the interesting tells, and I died shortly after. His iso was highly concentrated wolfy tells of mine, tells I learned in previous games.

    Mafia Live in Space the entire wolf team all committed the wolfy Interesting and I agree tells, and one wolf distanced from the other by making cases on the other wolf but not following their own process, making a case on the wolf and voting elsewhere.

    Ticked off contained a fabricated leans list and Defending from the first wolf to die, and Bussing from the deeper wolf, and Ignoring from U SUX.

    Color Wheel 3 of the 4 the wolves had no process on each other, sat in the thread "agreeing" and "disagreeing" with each other and talking about which townies were more or less wolfy than others, to each other.

    Chess Mafia Logic committed loads of scumtells he doesnt usually do, was passive aggressive, and was yeeted for it, while two of his buddies used the Defend strategy on him and died back to back afterward. Zack refused to Name names and made a theory of what the wolves were doing generically but never used that to solve, missing process. The last wolf didn't do anything rational to help the wolf team in any way and was only poe'd by final 4 as being on the lover team. Just wasn't scummy and didn't commit very many tells despite lots of words posted, so I didn't find him directly at all, all game long.

    Dark and Stormy night, A bear aka Beruru committed tons of scumtells before she subbed out for Grapefruit who I immediately went after, and Killjoy had a bad iso that game and I died accusing him. Never found Tau, he looked townie.

    Low Fantasy, Tubba was easy to yeet and was immensely scummy by iso, Tom was doing the Defend strategy so blatantly it is now my sig on that forum, and I also cased Lngrrrr doing wolfy $%#!, and died while that case was sitting in my inbox ready to be fired off as soon as day opened again.


    It's not always scumtells that do it, in fact they are more like the icing on the cake of a good case, and quite weak in a vacuum, but they do help me catch about half of all the wolves I do ever catch, the tells help support the case work I generate, and it helps me sort from wolfy defenses of wolves or townies from villagery defenses of wolves or townies. The less scummily you do either, the better. Combined with lots of other processes and especially reading the scum team for their intended strategy, trying to see if they follow a solving process, believe in their own case work, believe in their own beliefs and solving process combined, see whether they are paired, unpaired with any wolves that flip, analyzing vote counts and wagons for signs of bussing... that's the kind of solving I do.

    Of those wolves most committed large amounts of concentrated and varied scumtells, the ones that did not were caught due to their Team Moves, being paired with wolves, or other players being unpaired with wolves, or being caught not following their own processes, beliefs, and so forth. In other words, not method acting well enough. Some got caught by night actions.

    I showed you a post where dead villager Tammy committed nearly all of your ironclad scumtells. You yourself described sloths iso as oozing with scumtells, and now he’s cleared town.
    If you only use scumtells and do not use any other means of reading a player, you will catch scums more often than random, but also hit townies. I don't ever advocate just using tells alone. The tells point me to potentially wolfy mindsets or missing processes or wolfy strategies or wolfy content, and the tells get me to pay closer attention to that and call attention to it in turn, and the more those tells attract my attention the more I force myself to consider whether the player is a wolf or not.

    I could through the iso of any player in this game and find instances of your scumtells.
    Fair challenge. Go compare Staypositivefriend this game to her previous game as a wolf using my scumtell guide.

    Tell me which iso has more, more varied, and more concentrated instances of my tells. While you're doing that, tell me which iso looks like she is solving a mystery that she is interested in knowing the answer to, because again, it isn't just scumtells I am using to read Staypositivefriend.

    Is there a process she is following, do her votes follow that process? Tell me if her votes are following much of a process of any kind in the other game where she is a wolf. Tell me where her suspicions are and why they exist, and see if you can follow them or even identify them half of the time. If her processes here are much more in line with real solving, her beliefs match her process more, I can follow where her beliefs come from, and her posts are direct and sharp and not so passive aggressive here, that's a visible difference that all indicates town to me, in general, historically, and unless I have a specific reason to null those towntells. For example, if I knew SPF's history and it was full of games like that where she is a wolf, then I wouldn't be able to suggest she is clear, but I also wouldn't have a specific case she is a wolf. Like U SUX here, I knew for a fact he wasnt out of his scum range, it was ONLY Schweppes' spew that locked him clear for me.

    Context also matters for those tells. If I say something is Weird, for example, but I say why it is weird, it is clear that I think it is scummy, and I vote for that person because it is scummy, and I can understand WHY someone might think it is scummy, that's a vocabulary choice and it becomes null as a tell, due to the context.

    If they call someone Weird, off, interesting, strange, but makes no attempt to drive that person into the ground, then you can't really tell if that "weird" comment is real suspicion or if it means "If someone else votes here, I will join there!" while keeping ones own hands clean, leading to blame for the eventual town yeet going elsewhere, or "weird" meaning "see, I am not partners with X, I called him weird."

    Unless youre trying to convince me someone is townie or scummy, I dont care that their posts are weird to you.

    "Weird" is not an alignment in the game of mafia.

    What you do after saying Weird gives me context I can use to determine if you believe said player is a wolf or a townie, how much you believe it, and how much I believe you believe it, why you believe it.

    If I dont have that, then your Weird is Weird in a wolfy way, and I yeet that.

    Bur called Chuck weird, and then made an iso, and a case, and a recommendation we yeet Chuck yesterday.

    From context, weird means wolf. I could follow his reasons and beliefs.

    Generically, "weird" is a scumtell.

    In context, Bur didnt use it how scums use it.

    If I say "weird" because now the discussion is about whether or not "weird" is a scumtell, the context is the word itself and the discussion surrounding it.

    Whenever you remove context, you defeat the entire purpose of using solving processes, tells, or any other kind of case work.

    Context is everything in this game. Removing context always destroys meaning.

    And you’ve also set it up so you can spin anything as scummy. If a player has a negative interaction with a dead wolf their distancing or bussing. If they have a positive interaction they are using the defend strategy, and if they don’t interact it’s the ‘ignore’ strategy. At no point do you ask the question ‘Is this also plausibly explained by my suspect being town’ and then attempt to provide a reason why the answer is no.
    That's generic. There's clear differences between how certain players voted for wolves and how other players voted for wolves.

    If X was a wolf, then yes, their voting for a wolf was bussing. However, when I saw Bur do it, it didn't look like bussing to me, whereas your vote and Weasel's vote did.

    If X votes a wolf and they are a wolf then yes, it is bussing. How did they vote for a wolf, does it look like bussing, what is the rest of that player's overall strategy, can it win for wolves, does it usually win for wolves, what is their process for arriving at that vote for a wolf, does it follow that they really believed their process, their lean, their case work, were they pushing it for real, were they having it both ways and defending the wolf at the same time?

    Et cetera.

    You can set anything up as scummy if you refuse to explain how or why it is scummy. Every time I suggest something is scummy I say how it is and why it is, and in the case of my suspects this game I said what the overall plan was, that I thought it can win the game, that it was more likely that this is the bussing that is coming from wolves as opposed to real suspicion coming from townies, and I said why.

    You walk the game through Schweppes' footsteps and you can see he didn't intend to dumpster Phraze anytime early in the game, but also, you can see where that decision was absolutely made where he knew she was a lost cause. Both have flipped so it's really easy to see. You can see him shield her, and the reasons why he did didn't make sense. Other players in the game noticed the "why" for Phraze being town wasn't persuasive and would either be TMI if it were true or a wolf protecting a wolf if it were a wolf.

    Michelle voted for a townie sloth and for a townie pizza, Chuck voted for a townie pizza, what makes Chuck's vote wolfy and Michelle's vote villagery?

    It isn't as generic as this player voted for town, or this player voted for scum. How, why, what the context was, what the process was, what the reasons were, whether their beliefs looked genuine or not, that leads me to a decision as to whether or not the behavior is genuine and therefore villagery, or fake and therefore wolfy.

    But if you only read a player and think "they voted a wolf, they must be townie" that will lose to bussing and "they voted a townie, they must be a wolf" that will lose to townies making errors.

    Context matters, process matters, beliefs matter.

    If you read a player assuming they can be a wolf, and read their plan, and then describe their plan, then it makes sense.

    Give you an example:

    Colby and Vanta Black and Silverjan were winning the Return of the Clowns game.

    Near game start, they didn't discuss each other much, didnt town read each other, didnt scum read each other, voted for townies, talked to townies, defended townies, and cased townies.

    Their votes spread out, searching for town power roles.

    Later, one night a murder was blocked or defended against, Colby opened the day voting for Vanta, who was either blocked by the town roleblocker or hit the target protected by the town jailkeeper. Then Colby moved off of Vanta once it was clear that town wasnt convinced Vanta had been caught. Silverjan also voted Vanta and suspected Vanta and came to the immediate conclusion it was Vanta, then worked backward to all the possibilities there really would be if she was solving it as a townie would. She voted Vanta while saying she should really be voting for me instead, then changed her vote later. The next day the three refused to case one another and largely tried to create a majority yeet of a townie, and on the final day, they all refused to vote each other.

    Walking their posts from start of game to end of game, you can see a wolf plan in action that isnt apparent just by reading one of them at a time or by reading the game without isoing anyone. You can see quite clearly the strategy going down in waves:

    1) Finding and forcing town PRs to claim, and not being visibly connected to one another
    2) Using night actions to block or remove the most dangerous town PRs
    3) Immediately distancing or bussing when one was under pressure
    4) Unnaturally defending one another after that suspicion should have lead somewhere, because wolves were close to victory
    5) having zero progression on town reading one another after having all accused one another in a circle 1-2 rounds prior.

    The reason why wolves did those things was because, if they just got one additional yeet, they otherwise would have won the game.

    But if you assume one of them is scum, and read, then you notice that Jan's progression on Vanta made no sense, her vote didnt match her beliefs, there was no process being used to arrive at Vanta is guilty at start of day and then finding a ton of other options instead and backing off, and then unnaturally jumping back on the Vanta wagon when it became more plausible Vanta might die, in order to take credit.

    That narrative that applied to Jan solely did not ALSO apply to others on the Vanta wagon, because those players didnt play the game identically, and one of those players' body of work all game read exactly like a scum plan or strategy that could and nearly did win, while giving away telltale signs of being unnatural progressions and missing processes and giving away a scummy mindset by mistake in their posts, which contained tells.

    It is never so generic as "player did X, X is one of the 4 strategies, they must be guilty" and never trying to read their body of work as being townie at all, and if you reduce it down to that, I can't take your oversimplification as honest inquiry.

    If you reduce such a case against Jan down to "Okay, she voted for Vanta, so what? Others did too, why aren't they scummy for it?"

    That overlooks:

    1) She arrived at Vanta on no process, only TMI
    2) She moved off of Vanta when town did
    3) She moved BACK onto Vanta when town did
    4) She accused me while voting Vanta, which does not follow her own process of voting for her top suspect in the same post, which townies almost always do.

    It reduces it down to the generics, which are:

    Player A voted for Player B, and others in the game also voted for Player B.

    That's not useful for solving any game of mafia, to reduce a case against a scum down to its constituent pieces, observe each piece in isolation, remove all other possible context, and declare that I "could" make up such a case against anyone if I want to.

    No, I can't.

    I cannot generate the kind of case I made against jan and Vanta and Colby working together in Return of the Clowns against Staypositivefriend, Bur, and Michelle this game. I simply cannot do so.

    Michelle looks like she believes in her own damned beliefs, whereas Jan didn't look like she believed her own beliefs against Colby.
    Bur looked like he really had a real process for yeeting wolves this game, Colby had zero process for moving onto, and then off of, Vanta.
    Staypositivefriend looks like she also is solving the game and is radically different from her wolf self, is direct and aggressive, and Vanta Black was extremely passive aggressive.

    Michelle and Bur and SPF do not have a narrative I clould generate of working together this game that either I could believe or anyone else could.

    Whereas such a narrative could be created with the 3 wolves in that other game, A) because it was exactly what was happening and B) it was the single most likely explanation for why they were doing anything at all, all game long, from early game to late game and C) townies were not behaving identically to them and I had already town read swammerdami for his process and his beliefs which were never fake coming from him that game, despite suspecting me, I believe he believed it, Bashorian for claiming roleblocker and blocking Vanta on the night of the missing kill, Dizzy's night actions making absolutely no sense because if she were scum she had a block and could have blocked the person who claimed tracker or watcher and instead blocked me on a night I was doing nothing, and Lightfoot had been blocked on a night before she had actually claimed while a different valuable town PR was being murdered, and she was one of the few peeps that hadnt claimed yet when she got blocked, and claimed N3 cop.

    I "could generate a case against anyone I want to", if I remove all context, reduce it down to its constituent pieces, and simply quote posts at people all game and go "this is scummy" without giving context or reasons. One can have such reactions to individual posts, but those posts by themselves aren't a case. Cases involve bits like that, evidence, and a narrative for why it makes someone a wolf other than your gut.

    Some people just post gut cases. Soul reads. This post is wolfy, for reasons not stated. Okay, but unless I had the same gut reaction I can't figure out why you believe it or how reliable your gut is.

    I instead look for motives, processes, scumtells, signs of dishonesty, signs of scummy mindsets, and track whether my suspect has a wolf plan that wins the game, and if they do have such a plan, whether it happens naturally from their own solving processes or it looks like their moves match a wolf plan and NOT their purported villaging process or beliefs.

    Michelle's wolf plan this game would be to defend Phraze, and then call Schweppes creepy, and move off of Schweppes and defend Schweppes at one point and try to yeet sloth really really hard right away, and try to yeet me really really hard as well.

    Okay. That's what the plan is. Does that wolf plan match her villaging solving process and her beliefs and her reasons? It does. A lot of wolves fail right here on this step, before getting any further.

    Does it look like she believes in her own case work? How much do I believe she believes her own case work? Yes, and a lot.

    Does it look like she is trying to make exactly those yeets happen today? Absolutely. She's crushing it offensively.

    Does she exhibit wolfy TMI at any point? No, quite the opposite. She would be having a really bad game if I didnt buy that she believes it all.

    Is she passive aggressive or direct? Direct as all hell.

    Is she sharp or does she take two positions and spread her aggression to five different candidates? Sharper than a katana. She takes one position and limits her suspects to a small group or one target at a time.

    Is she posting wolfy fluff content, commentary on the thread state, repeating the same shallow reads over and over, having no depth of thoughts? Almost all her posts are related to the solve, asking solving questions, advancing her beliefs, making cases, etc.

    If and when she does post "scumtells", what is the context of those tells? When she calls Schweppes "creepy", is that to avoid calling him wolfy, or is it pretty obvious she is calling him wolfy? No, it is clear she was calling him wolfy, and for what reasons, even if she wavered on that read at one point.

    If she does post "I agree" content, is it because she is just trying to hide within thread consensus and appear agreeable and not generate sharp solving casework of her own? Which is how that tell is used in context. No, in fact, her reads often go against consensus. At no point in the game does she try to appear agreeable in a wolfy way.

    If she does call something weird, is it actually weird? Is it actually something that could be alignment indicative, noteworthy, or unusual?

    If someone posted a long string of literal gibberish, what looked like broken HTML code, and entirely unrelated nonsense on the thread, and someone said "what the hell is this weird post" is that normal to say?

    How about if someone responds to this post:
    Schweppes by far has the most wolf equity rn. Everyone who has played with him knows it (including you gira). I really don't think we are going to get burned on this flip. Sure, it won't give us too much information, but neither did the Phraze flip (though in retrospect, it actually kinda did imo).
    And that person says something like:

    'It sounds like youre advocating for a policy yeet, is the point you are making that Schweppes doesn't have much content and therefore is no big loss for town if yeeted?'

    Was that post actually odd? What was odd about it?

    Unless you already know Schweppes is going to flip wolf, there wouldn't be anything very odd about that post.

    That's the difference between "odd" meaning something actually unusual is happening, and "odd" as in passive aggression towards a townie, or distancing from a fellow wolf.

    One makes sense in context, the other is a common scumtell I can find in the isos of many wolves for wolfy reasons with wolfy contexts which allow them to be passive aggressive and indirectly attack townies and distance from partners without having to actually case them and bury them.


    Also on your townreads, for spf you cite a prior game where she played poorly as wolf, and use that to say she’s definitely out of her wolf range. Which might have been reasonable at first, but then she told you she had an off game and cited a better game, and I went and dug up quotes from that previous game and showed she was capable of faking deep reads and ‘non-chronological’ citations as a wolf. And that gets no reaction from you.
    It doesn't push the needle. That would then make one part of my analysis on staypositivefriend more null than indicative. It wouldn't show her posting a concentrated amount of scumtells in this game or being passive aggressive or indirect with her reads. It wouldn't describe a wolfy plan coming from her to win the game. It wouldn't really touch why she would want to go out and then provide evidence herself that her wolf range has more range and in structure of post could come closer to matching this game, as she would lack a lot of motive to do so if she is a wolf here. She could do so as a wolf, I've done that before. It wouldn't alter my town read on Bur, it wouldn't affect my scan on sloth, it wouldn't generate a case that spf was a wolf out of thin air, it wouldn't really alter the read on Michelle in any way. It wouldn't alter how DJ Eternal voted all game and why, or how unpaired he looks from Schweppes or Phraze.

    It doesn't touch anything in weasel's iso, nor does it touch anything in yours, doesn't explain your progression on Weasel or how you could arrive at a town read on Weasel without your day 3 stunt, doesn't explain why your poe is me and SPF, one of which I know is wrong.

    All it does is show that SPF has a larger wolf range than her previous game indicated, which is fine, but doesn't alter anything else I said about her or anyone else in the game. It shows that I had all the time to iso her here and one other game rather than more games than that, and had I done so, my towncase on her would have been altered to "I see her being more direct, more engaged, more solving here than in another recent game, she's giving off fewer scumtells, less often, and I believe she is following her process to the letter here" and the alteration would then be "she isn't out of her scum range, but she doesn't appear to be solving disingenuously."

    That doesn't move the needle a lot for me. The confidence level is slightly lower, but doesn't really make her wolfy.

    She goes from being well outside of her scum range to "it's possible by skill level, but there isn't really a case supporting it."

    It’s not clear to what extent you actually scumread Weasel and/or I as scumread in and of itself, and to what degree you arrive there by process of elimination by townreading everyone else. But if it’s the latter that seems like it would be relevant
    Weasel's iso here and the interaction with the dead wolves reads scummy all on its own, it helps that others in the game read on the level to a much greater degree: all process of elimination did was make it take longer to get around to reading Weasel's iso in the first place.

    With you, it was the keeping options open, having it both ways, being early to vote or suspect wolves but then moving away, your process for moving away, suspicion on Weasel that didn't get followed up on, but resolved inorganically with your claim on day three.

    What the POE on everyone else here does is it greatly strengthens my confidence.

    In other games, it was not at all possible to make such a towncore. Example:

    In Mafia In Space, the first several rounds were townies accusing townies, yeeting their own cop, yeeting their own cop checked vanilla townie, really bad end of day wagon shenanigans, and a townie counterclaiming the town cop.

    That led to an endgame where it was very difficult to create a towncore because most players besides CHarry (who was on an alt with a monkey avatar, cant remember the name...) looked terrible from the opening by the time I subbed in.

    I still managed to case 2 wolves doing distancing shenanigans, but I also thought it was Grant, who counterclaimed the town cop as town and yeeted the town cop and so forth.

    Because town was that bad that game, it was very hard to set aside people as definitely not wolves.

    We also had an inactive townie who got yeeted because she is usually active as town, and subbed in and went inactive while being active elsewhere. There wasnt really a way of townclearing the slot.

    I resisted because I thought it was Grant, but Grant was a misyeet anyway. Didn't matter which wrong townie we yeeted there.


    Here, the early game set up a lot of people for looking great later, and not just generically. Bur specifically, U SUX specifically, Raja specifically, even Michelle got in some good early hits on Schweppes that I buy for the reasons stated, even if she flip flopped a bit. Michelle's case against sloth I buy she believed, so even when it is wrong, it looks great for her, because I not only believed she believed it, I also effing believed it.

    People looked great from the early game this game, with specifics. With context. With villagery progressions, reasons, beliefs, case work, that all follows from a townie mindset, which was more direct and intent on solving specific players today, as opposed to spreading the aggression among 3 4 or 5 different other targets.

    Schweppes spewed U SUX slot villagery for reasons I stated, which were patently obvious before Nancy was yeeted yesterday and I went on at length about that spew. That was ironclad, wolves going down and which will always be outed wolves do not sink deeper wolves on their team. When wolves give up spew, and when villagers do good villaging efforts, it's easier to build a towncore.

    But also, if you have an iso like Weasel's containing delaying, passive aggression, poor interactions with dead wolves, and the only thing really saving his neck is a tactic that was generated by someone else in the game who is also in the POE, and the progression on Bur reads as forcing an outcome rather than natural solving, and the progression on Weasel looks like distancing and then shielding with a one move tactic, and the progression on Schweppes reads as taking credit for his eventual death but also trying to keep him alive, and the only other person in your POE (DJ Eternal) doesn't do stuff like that during the game?

    It's really picking one of only a few remaining likely worlds, and the only tough part of that call was reading enough of the game to give me enough context to make that call, and then typing it all out in full.

    Now, when that call is wrong, I spent a lot of my time tunneling the wrong persons and I let a wolf fool me, after considering whether they were a wolf. Oops. That happens whenever you make a big case on someone and it is wrong. It's part of mafia and I am used to it happening. I don't like it when it happens but it has to be allowed. As soon as it is not allowed to be wrong, I will stop playing for sure.


    I need to rest for the night, let me end my thoughts here.

    I hope that thoroughly answers your questions.

    Based on Weasel's reaction to me this round and your own reaction to me this round, I cannot say the needle has been moved for me away from suspecting you both are the exact team.

    If that is wrong, I am sorry. You need to spend the time remaining in the game solving for a wolf. Use the time wisely.
  2. Postgame#2425

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Let me know if something I said helped you in a...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sunbae (#2424)
    Hey pizza, just wanted to drop by and say 1. hope you start feeling better and 2. I adore reading your post game thoughts even for games I didn't participate in. The insight is top notch and I always take something away from it to try and use for myself.
    Let me know if something I said helped you in a specific practical application, especially, as either alignment.

    Every game, every player teaches you how players play as the alignment they randed. When they beat you they teach you stuff you needed to learn. When they are on your team and do well, they also teach you.

    Everyone is your teacher. Even if they set a bad example, like in my guide where i talk about the era when people kept fake claiming guilty checks as vanilla and then started to do the same as cop, and I concluded that was a bad move.

    Even bad moves teach you stuff about the game. Learn from good plays, learn from bad plays. Learn from wins, learn from losses.

    The lesson I can't learn properly is how to be concise and communicate effectively as town. Someone with a differently shaped brain should be able to use my processes to find scums and be more convincing. Here, I cant tell which information is persuasive or useful, so I just explain literally everything I was thinking.

    Its too much to read, but I dont know how to edit myself down. Not how my brain works.

    I truly believe in the processes, I just think someone with stronger instincts than me (like the folks that are mad lad villagers in turbos, like benneh) younger, sharper memories and brains, more time and energy, and less babies, can kick my $%#! easily as town at this point.

    If I am doing anything better than they are it can only be explained by the processes and experiences. Steal them, use them, do better than I did.

    I feel like I invented a bicycle but I suck at riding it. You guys can ride it better, do tricks and stuff. I will just ride it to work and back, thats my speed.
  3. Postgame#2423

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed I have played far too many tiny games with 4...

    I have played far too many tiny games with 4 sized wolf teams and am permanently traumatized by always being 1 yeet away from it being MYLO or LYLO and always dying by night kill immediately in those games.

    So I am in panic, gotta solve everything today and find wolf 4, permanently.

    I'm dumb. Please forgive me for being dumb.
  4. Postgame#2422

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Oh okay. No wonder the role cop never flipped. ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bur (#2421)
    All mafia were goons, but they had access to factional ability called truth serum that functions as role cop and strongman extra kill.
    Oh okay. No wonder the role cop never flipped.

    I thought it was Chuck, because his behavior indicated he was going deep by townsiding and white knighting.

    but that doesnt find scum 4, and yeeting scum 4 is the only way town wins even after finding chuck.

    See the game where it was stinkyjoeterry and tomslogger and lngrrr and tubba fett.

    I found one, cased 2 and 3, number 4 I town read, and I died before I could reverse or even post my big $%#! case on the other two.

    I have to find wolf 4 or town loses, is my mindset.

    Here there was no wolf 4, so finding the role cop and yeeting it wasnt a victory in my mind.

    I had to also yeet wolf 4.

    I figured if Weasel flipped wolf, you were literally always yeeting Chuck the next day, or I was, and chuck couldnt murder us both.

    That was my grand plan.

    Plan sucked because 3 wolves and no roles assigned to wolves. My bad. Never saw that before, so it never factored in to my solve as a possibility.
  5. Postgame#2420

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Truth serum? I missed something in the setup...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bur (#2418)
    Also, while I think that the truth serum was a nice idea, I think it suffers from that town can't fight it at all.

    Normally, when both town and mafia have PRs, they both lose them as game goes on. Mafia shoots town PRs, town yeet mafia PRs.

    In this game, mafia can shoot town PRs, but town can't really do anything about mafia's power. Especially that town can't protect against mafias extra kill is bit too much.

    Usually the idea with PRs is that they can interact with each other - mafia can interrupt with truth town, town can mess with mafia.

    Here none of that was possible.

    (Also, giving mafia extra factional abilities is something that needs to be considered very carefully - as Elderlings and Season showed us)
    Truth serum? I missed something in the setup apparently.
  6. Postgame#2419

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Yeah, I just knew I was never ever going to be...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bur (#2416)
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#2409)
    lol yeet chuck gets a scan of michelle was my night action and I didnt follow through and yeet chuck.

    Just now realizing how effing bad that was. Holy sheet.

    I was distracted by the weasel. To be fair, he's a very sexy weasel.
    That's what really the me off, I was ready to yeet Check D4, especially after you told me you get a scan after that. I was not disappointed that you chose Michelle and not spf or KJ, but I figured that even if you are mafia, by following you the PoE shrinks too much for you to win by yourself as a solo and if you are town mafia can't allow you to stay alive to claim results.

    Yeah, I just knew I was never ever going to be alive to see that scan.

    I wanted people to make the decision not based on the mechanics of my role when I'd never actually see the result.

    I also haaaaaaaate being told the answers, I dont like being a cop, I want to hunt scums using my skill set, for better or worse.

    I still did my mechanical duty. There was a post I made where I indicated I was getting cold feet on chuck, but that I was always voting however you wanted to vote that day, on Day 4.

    By then, I was ready to yeet Chuck if that was the call, and I was looking for anyone else who could be a wolf.

    I cased two others, wasnt completely sold it was chuck, cased chuck extensively. Thought it could be Michelle-Weasel, but there were three yeets left and I absolutely wanted you specifically to get the yeet you wanted of those three names.

    I wasnt going to vote anywhere else, I was too sure the rest were town.
  7. Postgame#2417

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed This reminded me of this long exchange over...

    Quote Originally Posted by UpsideDownChuck (#309)
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#307)
    No, "I'm probably analysable enough now." is serious, because its Phraze, and you kinda just dont say it often as mafia unless like you've somehow managed to leave your scumrange.
    In a vacuum I can see this read, maybe. Very very thinly.

    Do you seriously feel Phraze has left their scumrange? They have 6 posts, which are sparse to say the least. What is their scumrange exactly if this has left it?
    This reminded me of this long exchange over several posts in Color Wheel. (three examples thereof)

    Quote Originally Posted by Marluxion (#148)
    Quote Originally Posted by -Rosen (#141)
    Disagree on Marluxion's eevee read if only for my own experience with Day 1; typically I've found that D1 reads and voting isn't entirely AI for the most part, barring some more specific teamreads later in the game, but that's mostly subconscious stuff at that point. I don't think we're going to see anything explicit in someone's Town read this early on
    i dont agree
    i think wolves tend to wk lhf villagers more often on d1
    it's not always AI, sure, but it's not something i'd just disregard as null
    Quote Originally Posted by Lissa (#149)
    Quote Originally Posted by -Rosen (#144)
    Quote Originally Posted by Lissa (#143)
    Quote Originally Posted by -Rosen (#141)
    Disagree on Marluxion's eevee read if only for my own experience with Day 1; typically I've found that D1 reads and voting isn't entirely AI for the most part, barring some more specific teamreads later in the game, but that's mostly subconscious stuff at that point. I don't think we're going to see anything explicit in someone's Town read this early on
    do you mean ai in terms of who they're on?
    Yeah that's what I meant. I should add too that I think the only time it could be AI is if we manage to lynch scum on D1, since the circumstances are a lot different than lynching a Town.
    mm ok

    i think it depends on the person some? some people are afraid of/have difficult times really leading a push on villagers as wolves

    i sometimes have a hard time with the class of read marl is making because i have zero fear of being wrong on villagers as a wolf to almost a fault barring specific meta dynamic stuff
    Quote Originally Posted by -Rosen (#153)
    Quote Originally Posted by Marluxion (#148)
    Quote Originally Posted by -Rosen (#141)
    Disagree on Marluxion's eevee read if only for my own experience with Day 1; typically I've found that D1 reads and voting isn't entirely AI for the most part, barring some more specific teamreads later in the game, but that's mostly subconscious stuff at that point. I don't think we're going to see anything explicit in someone's Town read this early on
    i dont agree
    i think wolves tend to wk lhf villagers more often on d1
    it's not always AI, sure, but it's not something i'd just disregard as null
    Agree to disagree then, I doubt we'll be able to convince each other that our own view is the correct one


    Basically the way Chuck and Schweppes discussed one another and Phraze, after Phraze and Schweppes had both flipped, indicated strongly to me Chuck was a third member.

    The conversation felt like busywork in tone, a generic version of this is how villagers solve for other players.

    Which is how Marl and Rosen and Lissa read to me during their exchange D1 of Color Wheel team mafia rerand. I said it read "like a wolf chat". Its how wolves talk to members of their team.

    That feeling was strongest during the quoted post by Chuck, but it wasn't the only example of that feeling.

    Other bits was Chuck's lack of struggle to townread Michelle or Sloth, stuck out because those were the two hardest players for me to sort this game, correctly or not. He got to townreading both of them too fast for me to follow how. That follows White Knighting patterns. If I cant follow how you got there on both, youre either better at me at being a townie or youre scum. I considered both carefully.

    That plus the classic scumtells:
    "Weird" in place of wolfy or townie.
    "Interesting" implying that someone else is wolfy, rather than saying wolfy.
    "Odd" in place of a firm stance of wolfy or townie.
    Wolfy diplomacy and pocketing.
    Taking two positions on certain suspects.
    Missing progressions on Weasel and others.
    Clustering after yeeting Phraze, puts 5 names together including Schweppes as his next targets.
    Moves his suspicions between many, many, many candidates throughout most of the first two days, watering down his actual aggression toward any one candidate and keeping his options open.
    Deliberately trying to take credit for his own distancing and bussing attempts explicitly.This post contains weasely and wishy washy stances and explicitly uses "weird" in the passive aggressive take it both ways manner that is wolfy.


    This is all stuff that I have extensively documented that wolves do every game.

    And by every game, I literally mean every game. I mean for 22 games in a row, stuff like this hasn't not happened. Including on wolf teams I was on.

    I am still very sure my scumtells find wolves and very sure the multiple processes I use correctly identify scums.

    What these things don't do is tell you when a townie doing it is town. And if a scum pulls off a game which fools all the tells by process and has limited scumtells, I cant see that. See GITP game I lost to Vecna for an example. If you act just like a townie as a wolf, i cant see that. If you act just like a wolf as a townie, I'm gonna have trouble sorting you correctly.

    its still my job to figure out how to do that. I look for town indicators. Saw a bunch from Michelle for example. That kept correcting me to the right alignment whenever I had reason to suspect her. it was much stronger than the suspicions.

    I could have stuck with that but I went off script. I could see a scum plan if I forced myself to do so, but there were a lot of indicators telling me not to do that, and I ignored them.

    Processes dont make decisions for you, you as a human being can override them.

    But, if you want to fool me in future games, I've literally written a guide explaining all the visible bits where wolves do things they arent aware that wolves do every single game, more or less. On many boards, cultures, and setups.

    If you avoid those scumtells case work against you becomes much more speculative. "If X is a wolf, then this is their plan, but they read villagery to me." and guessing this player is a scum becomes harder.

    Still gotta do it if everyone else reads villagery. Then things get tough.

    I had a heck of a time finding wolves this game, because the thread was so packed with villagers. Man this one was hard.
  8. Postgame#2415

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed If anyone else beats you up the way I rip myself...

    If anyone else beats you up the way I rip myself when I am wrong, you can tell them I said to piss off, btw.

    Expect much of yourself is fine. Weaponizing that against others is dumb.
  9. Postgame#2414

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed A case study in how to be right on process while...

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#1747)
    Before I present the towncase for DJ Eternal, which is mostly just pointing out the crucial decision points and pressure on the previously demised wolves, it will be necessary for me to point out the case against UpsideDownChuck.

    That part will take time and due to time constraints on my personal life, today being particularly bad, all of this is stalling out. However all the evidence I wish to point to is in the thread and the actual work done on Chuck was done over the Night phase. I can at least refer back to that. I will give a preview of the scumcase on Chuck, which is what ultimately led me down the path of deciding that Chuck was shielding Duplicitous Weasel on Start of Day Three.


    Summary of Wolf Case against UpsideDownChuck


    I only have a free hour, so this is the very condensed version. See also Raja's suspicion on Chuck, and Bur's case work against Chuck, iso Chuck yourself.

    This is what I did:

    One of the things you assume when reading Start of Day Three in chronological order and without isolating each subject, is that we are looking for just one wolf remaining.

    Because I had like 6 townies last night including myself and sloth and the about to be deceased Raja, had towncased Michelle, had towncased Bur, and had done all the deep analysis on how Staypositivefriend played this game and in a recent game as scum,

    I had a pool remaining which included DJ Eternal, Weasel, and Chuck.

    Because Bur's case on Chuck was good after analyzing Bur, and I determined it was unlikely Bur was either scum in the first place OR bussing Chuck, I decided to iso Chuck as my second analysis overnight.

    The iso is done by assuming Chuck is scum, as if I knew it from a scan or from his eventual flip, and then reverse engineering from that conclusion what it means for the scum team's overall strategy.

    If you know what their strategy is, you can then easily explain why they did certain things, because it advances a strategy that is Expected To Win the game.

    Bussing can be expected to win the game, Distancing can be, Defending can be, and Ignoring can be. Each of those deliberate strategies leads to telltale signs of those strategies being carried out by the wolf in question AND by any other wolves on the team.

    These are those findings, summarized.

    1) Interactions with Phraze read as both coaching and deliberate distancing attempts, from a confident and skilled scum to someone he can't actually communicate with.

    2) There was a part where he shielded Schweppes from suspicion while suspecting Phraze. This makes things harder to analyze for motive when any of the three flip at some point in the game, and is common from higher level scums.

    3) Moves his suspicion early on from Phraze to Weasel, while saying Phraze is a fine candidate.

    4) Like the game Color Wheel hosted by Aquilla, this post reads like one wolf talking to another wolf about a third wolf. This is how larger wolf teams tend to distance from one another. Such interactions are led by confident scum who are good at making their isos difficult to analyze upon flip. In other words, it is deliberate wrong-spew. Spew that causes you to lead to the wrong conclusions. Which is why you could be confident in your ability to survive the game when EITHER of Phraze or Schweppes eventually flips. This is intended to give Chuck cover specifically to go deep.

    5) In order to deep wolf, you have to appear to be solving the game and hunting wolves correctly, this entails town-siding on many of your stances for much of the game to make it look like you're not paired. Stuff like this is that example of such townsiding.

    This spoilered section is all related to point five, because it needs to be fully elaborated on, please expand this spoiler.
    It's here to make the rest of the list more readable as a list, rather than have a huge wall of text in the middle.
    Because Phraze and Schweppes have flipped, in order for Chuck to be scum, he absolutely has to be at the very least Distancing from 2 scums, and therefore, trying to go Deep by ostensibly Townsiding.

    That's his plan, point blank. This will continue until the strategy has achieved its intended result, which is that Chuck is town read enough to survive the game, and gets in deep in the town list.

    After that, Chuck can then do wolfy $%#! that wins the game for him and any remaining alive partners, like trying to destroy townies and having townies assist with that, given the assumption that Chuck should be in the town core.

    Having fallen for strategies like that for much of 2017, hence an entirely retooled approach to my analysis of my own towncores in all games going forward thereafter, I now do not overlook players that just look like they are crushing scums early.

    If they are a wolf, how does that just win the game for them anyway? The answer comes by the end of the iso, when Chuck pulls his stunt to fake claim cop and accuse Weasel.

    Chuck likely wins the game if he forces town into a final 6 situation with 2 alive scums.

    That is the point of that strategy. All he would have to do is get Weasel and himself through Day Four alive.

    That's the point of the gambit on Day Three.

    That's why he townsided and accused Phraze and Schweppes so much and even mildly distanced himself from Weasel and called him "odd" which is a scumtell of mine.

    Once you have townsided by casting off the two weaker wolves and pocketing enough townies, you have then replaced your partners with townie substitutes for the wolves you have lost.

    If you arrive at Day Four with yourself a scum, another scum, and a couple of townies pocketed, your scum team nearly has majority of the vote.

    And it all looks like solving the game. On the surface.

    Unless you iso Chuck looking for signs of his being scum.

    Which is the step I did first, thanks to Bur's case work.

    At a certain point Chuck accuses Weasel's defense of one of the scums that were on the chopping block of being an "odd post". What townies generally do when they suspect someone is advance that suspicion, eventually casing their suspect or finding reasons to dismiss that suspicion by townreading that player explicitly.

    What Chuck did instead was let that "odd" comment vanish into the aether after having a calm and civil chit chat with Weasel. Later on, Chuck explicitly makes a Team Move designed to make people townread Weasel, and keep him alive, without actually having to go iso Weasel and say why his iso comes from a townie.

    Because if he were to DO that, he'd have a large amount of trouble calling Weasel's work all game villagery, so he didn't even bother. He covered up Weasel's terrible iso by creating a scenario which would help Weasel survive.

    That is much, much, much more likely to be Chuck's real agenda if he is indeed a wolf. Indeed, it HAS to be his actual plan for winning the game, otherwise he wouldn't have pulled the stunt in the first place.

    Such a stunt is easy to reverse engineer if you already suspect Chuck, see how he tried to Deep Wolf all game, and follow his own "suspicion" on Weasel which is dumpstered for no reason and vanishes by Day Three.

    Then, in order to town read Weasel, like Weasel has town read Chuck, Chuck doesn't use what Weasel has done all game as evidence.

    Instead he engineers a stunt which should make Weasel look clean all by itself, whitewashing Weasel's poor iso.

    On first read, I considered whether Chuck was just trying to put suspicion on a townie weasel, UNTIL I got to day three.

    If he is just trying to yeet Weasel, then he can just use Weasel's scummy iso as evidence. Weasel as a townie should be a sitting duck to any kind of case work by a scum, because his iso is laden with connections to both dead wolves, and is generally poor solving or mostly not solving at all.

    It cannot be Chuck's motive to yeet an easily yeetable townie, because then he just would have done it the straightforward way of casing Weasel.

    His motive must be to specifically keep Weasel alive. And if he is a wolf, to have that motive, there needs to be something especially important about Weasel himself.

    If he just needed to pocket a townie, there are several other players alive who are easily towncased and look like they are solving. Those should be easier to pocket.

    Weasel would be harder for Chuck to explain to everyone else why Weasel is town, and since he didn't even bother, that means he knew he could not make that case.

    If he wants Weasel alive specifically, knowingly cannot towncase Weasel (which is wolfy on its own), and initiates the stunt that is meant to make everyone else townread Weasel based solely on the stunt rather than because of Weasel's work all game, AND UpsideDownChuck is a wolf, it MUST be because Weasel is also a wolf. There ARE NO OTHER CONCLUSIONS that can be drawn from that stunt whenever Chuck is a wolf.

    So when I isoed Duplicitous Weasel looking for signs Weasel was town or scum, and I saw nothing but scumtells, defenses of wolves, defenses of Weasel from the dead wolves, delaying, passive aggression, and all the classic signs of being a wolf trying to keep weaker wolves alive, I had in mind if I was hunting one wolf, Weasel absolutely should be the one wolf.

    But it stuck in my mind that Weasel also reacted how he did to Chuck's stunt as if he knew it would resolve in his favor.

    So at that point I had three theories,

    1) Chuck was deep wolfing, and was pocketing Weasel who looks super bad on iso, which DOES NOT explain why he pulled that ridiculous stunt on Day Three, thus mostly ruling out this universe.

    2) Weasel was obviously a real wolf from this iso, and Chuck's suspicion on Weasel existed, vanished, and then he coincidentally created a stunt meant to force everyone else to towncase Weasel, instead of..... doing like a townie should.... and just effing towncasing Weasel based on his iso and his vote pattern and his body of work and his process and his beliefs, which he did not do, leading me to conclude this universe is unlikely, even though Weasel is probably scum.

    3) Chuck and Weasel were distancing from each other on Day One and Day Two, One was defending the wolves under fire, and the other was distancing from and then bussing the other wolves under fire, and then Chuck engineered a scenario to make Weasel look townie to everyone else. Meanwhile, I have Bur, Michelle, SPF, Raja, Myself, Sloth, and DJ Eternal as either locked town, or saw during the iso that DJ Eternal shouldn't be the final scumbag. That leads to scenario 3 being the absolutely most likely scenario. Also, if DJ Eternal is meant to go deep, Weasel who looks worse shouldn't be trying to bus him or scumcase him for trying to yeet either Phraze OR Schweppes.

    I had already submitted my yeet of Chuck leads to a Michelle scan by then, and Day 4 had just begun.


    6) Chuck spends much of the game White Knighting Michelle or Sloth from their case work against one another, and explicitly defending the honor of a lot of townies under suspicion.

    7) Many, many, many scumtells from my guide which applied to Schweppes, Phraze, and Weasel also apply to Chuck himself,
    Summary of examples. Long form examples can be posted specifically with quotes when I have more than an hour.
    "Weird" in place of wolfy or townie.
    "Interesting" implying that someone else is wolfy, rather than saying wolfy.
    "Odd" in place of a firm stance of wolfy or townie.
    Wolfy diplomacy and pocketing.
    Taking two positions on certain suspects.
    Missing progressions on Weasel and others.
    Clustering after yeeting Phraze, puts 5 names together including Schweppes as his next targets.
    Moves his suspicions between many, many, many candidates throughout most of the first two days, watering down his actual aggression toward any one candidate and keeping his options open.
    Deliberately trying to take credit for his own distancing and bussing attempts explicitly.This post contains weasely and wishy washy stances and explicitly uses "weird" in the passive aggressive take it both ways manner that is wolfy.


    8) While bussing Schweppes, takes two positions on Schweppes when analyzing him, so he has the option to move off without it appearing wolfy. In a single post he both accuses and defends Schweppes with reasoning for both stances. Later credit grabs on Schweppes explicitly.

    9) Sets up distancing from Weasel by calling him "odd" and then this suspicion progresses into nothing.

    10) When Schweppes claims, he tries to persuade a lot of people to move off of Schweppes because of the claim, instead of analyzing the claim like Bur did. This is his "have it both ways" strategy. He can say he voted Schweppes early, has a progression on Schweppes, accused Schweppes (while defending in the same posts) and then when he finally decisively defends Schweppes, its because of a bull$%#! claim.

    That way he can cause an outcome that saves Schweppes that doesn't look wolfy later on. Or, depending on what town does, he can bus Schweppes and take credit.

    He can capitalize on both outcomes without it leading directly back to him next, that's why he supports both outcomes extensively with arguments from both sides of his mouth.

    11) Finally, on Day Three, he has to survive the game, and his best option is to also help Weasel survive the game despite the fact that they both made posts defending Schweppes or weakly distancing from Schweppes, or voted Schweppes but made the case to move off of him.

    That stuff would be pairing behavior on a simple analysis. Instead of getting the required distance from the two dead wolves, suspicion could remain. In order to throw themselves clear of suspicion, the Day Three stunt was devised and executed.





    -----



    So after I iso'ed Chuck and ruled out the idea that he was progressing on Duplicitous Weasel naturally, I looked for signs of scum behavior in Weasel and found one of the most concentrated examples not villagery behavior which is definitely wolfy behavior that I have seen 500 times by now. It's not hard to identify.

    Weasel then would be definitely scum, while Chuck is slightly more risky because sometimes townies behave inexplicably, and he did accuse many wolves and shield many townies.

    It's just that white knighting exists, bussing exists, distancing exists, and then there's the stunt with the cop check.

    So as soon as Weasel flips wolf, Chuck is basically always Weasel's partner. Rushing this out because it's about all I have time to do for personal reasons (daddy.)


    A case study in how to be right on process while having a bad process.

    "As soon as Weasel flips wolf, Chuck is always his partner."

    So it shouldn't matter which one flips first. Vote Chuck, at least Bur wants Chuck dead, dummy.
  10. Postgame#2413

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed DJ Eternal Did you find any of the...

    @DJ Eternal

    Did you find any of the articles/links interesting?

    I still have to figure out if I have it in me to finish the guide, because I am running low on morale to do so.

    It helps if its actually helpful to people, otherwise I could probably abandon the project as its too much work on my end.
  11. Postgame#2412

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vs0I9f2aeXo ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#2411)
    Chuck, I reverse engineered a scum plan between you and a partner that didnt even exist!


    Nude Bill Clinton: "Well, if you can't laugh at yourself..."

  12. Postgame#2411

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Chuck, I reverse engineered a scum plan between...

    Chuck, I reverse engineered a scum plan between you and a partner that didnt even exist!

    Hows that for right for the wrong reasons? XD
  13. Postgame#2410

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Sorry weasel, I was harsh on your iso. Ive...

    Sorry weasel, I was harsh on your iso.

    Ive seen a lot of unusual process / small footprint / delaying tactics by scums, I can show you the games.

    When you see that a lot, you suspect that a lot. Not your fault. Mine. Those were my guesses and they were wrong.
  14. Postgame#2409

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed lol yeet chuck gets a scan of michelle was my...

    lol yeet chuck gets a scan of michelle was my night action and I didnt follow through and yeet chuck.

    Just now realizing how effing bad that was. Holy sheet.

    I was distracted by the weasel. To be fair, he's a very sexy weasel.
  15. Postgame#2408

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Like I said, its not a race and folks who were...

    Like I said, its not a race and folks who were less accurate this game have nothing to feel bad about.

    It is a guessing game for funsies. And most of you looked really strongly villagery by process with your efforts.

    Sorry I couldnt help bring it home. You deserved a win for the effort.
  16. Postgame#2407

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Bur You were an absolute beast this game. I...

    @Bur

    You were an absolute beast this game.

    I was in awe of how villagery you were by process and you correctly accused all 3 wolves by process.

    You werent the first on any of them, but its not a race. You were accurate as $%#!.

    Wow. Well played you in particular. Reading your iso convinced me both of your case work and that you were town.

    This game is a jewel of an example of your good town play. I havent seen you town in years, this game was a wake up call that youre incredible at the game. I cant remember the last time I saw you town, and if I did, I might have been a wolf.

    So yeah, you surprised me and not because I had an opinion of your game. I couldnt remember what level youre on. Turns out its on a higher level than me.

    Respeck.
  17. Postgame#2406

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed One day you and I will win a game as town...

    Quote Originally Posted by U SUX (#2403)
    Oh yeah, forgot to answer: I'm doing much better @ZeDorkSlipeur
    One day you and I will win a game as town together.

    I was hoping it was this game. Youre fun to play with.
  18. Postgame#2405

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed oops typo ZeDorkSlipeur see above.

    oops typo
    @ZeDorkSlipeur

    see above.
  19. Postgame#2404

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Hello folks I have been in constant RL pain...

    Hello folks

    I have been in constant RL pain for the past month or so because of a slipped disc in my back, it's really the only reason I even had time off from work to play the game in the first place.

    I had to say no to an invite from Bur a few weeks prior to this game because I can't really play with all my RL responsibilies. Then my back blew out on me and I've been bedridden for a month.

    Still am, but I got curious enough to see how the game turned out.

    Very, very grateful to have at least suspected and cased Chuck.

    I was hunting for 2 scums for balance, that's what threw me off. I needed a partner for chuck for the victory in my head, and hunting Chuck's partner killed my win chances as there was no partner.

    I had discounted Bur easily, and then SPF by far. Got there on Michelle until we couldn't agree that I was town and she seemed scared I was going to dunk Weasel, so I thought that was partnery. My bad.

    As soon as I died I looked over everyone again and felt maybe DJ Eternal could have been scummy for dunking me, but it was really hard to convince myself of that.

    There were so, so many strong things about his game that lock cleared him to me while I was alive.

    Michelle as I said while I was alive was really really villagery by process even though she kept doing stuff that was pro wolf.

    Sometimes my process is correct by experience, but wrong on the example. So I decided, maybe this was the five percent world where Michelle was just a beast beast beast wolf.

    You always gotta look out for that.

    But when I was dying I had sloth scanned, Bur lock town, SPF lock town, I locked Nancy town before she died, I had DJ Eternal as someone else I could lock town, which reduced my options for Chuck partner to just Michelle and just Weasel.

    Weasel looked most likely because I saw stuff that seemed like partner interactions, which usually are partner interactions whenever there are 2 wolves left to find.

    Then when Michelle was playing like she would lose the game unless I was yeeted, I decided... okay, I guess it can be Michelle and Weasel if Chuck is somehow town.

    The POE was fine, but I was hunting too many scums.

    Had I narrowed it down to worlds with just one scum, I had Chuck in my two guesses, said my POE wins.

    And for my world with 2 wolves, I had it as Chuck and Weasel, said yeet my POE wins.

    I had to expand that poe after I died, because I needed to check for worlds where DJ was a wolf and beasting me, and also, Michelle.

    If you chase two rabbits, you will lose them both.

    Biggest flaw in my scum hunting game is I try to find the entire team before I die.

    When I miss, that means anywhere I hit doesnt matter. Accuse a wolf doesn't matter if also accuse a townie.

    POE wins if followed, but if pizza gets yeeted and poe doesn't matter because surprise setup stuff then hey, accurately scumreading a wolf but not pushing it to death loses.

    I got a loooooooot of losses where I accused many wolves at once. It doesn't help the team much. Better is to just yeet the one correct wolf youre accusing and not try to solve the whole game a lot.

    Most players go one turn at a time, one day at a time, one suspect at a time, so theyre more comfortable with other players who do.

    When I got turbo yeeted on day four I decided most likely it was Chuck and DJ because town had misvoted enough for scums to win.

    Sloth misvoting, weasel OMGUSing, and Michelle voting me puts me at 3 and that lets a team of 2 cap me.

    So I first thought it was Chuck and DJ, but man... that went against alllllll my analysis of DJ.

    Sometimes you get beasted. See the game on GITP last year I played as Mr Popo where AvatarVecna got my top town read.

    You get beat sometimes. So sometimes you have to consider your top townie read has to be scum.

    To that end, I read and reread folks like Bur and Michelle and DJ and SPF looking for scums, I just kept coming up empty until day four where people decided I claimed cop as the final scum which makes no sense, or there was a team of four scums and town had no other PRs, which doesnt make sense for balance either.

    I genuinely didnt believe any of the suspicion on me for that reason. But five votes on me cant all come from scums.

    Sloth, I get. Playstyle clash.

    Michelle, I get. Paranoid after seeing me scum.

    Weasel, I get. OMGUS is a thing.

    DJ... probably more used to turbos or something? I dunno. It looked like he had correctly made the decision not to yeet me. Flip flopping on that for the reasons given sharply read scum to me when I died.

    anyway these are my notes from the day after.

    Worlds with 2 scum analysis




    Worlds with 1 scum analysis



    So, my poe worked. But I did not understand the setup and put 1 wolf world as unlikely given I was a cop.

    For balance that was wrong.

    Now I see why. Surprise surprise!

    Anyway.

    I hope you folks didn't mind my style too much. I'm trying to use my processes while also explaining them, so if and when there are mistakes, you can see where they exist and why, and so can I, so I can correct them.

    Oh, and game hosts
    @Zorkdeslipeur and @osieorb

    If anyone wants to see my personal thread where I analyzed the game in discord, they can see it.

    And @Michelle

    At a certain point you said I might berate people for being wrong, if you didnt follow my suspicions or something.

    Nope. I went on for a while why that isn't the case in my discord, and its pinned (along with pins for all my notes, you can warp anywhere you like, similar to my pins in the wolf chat for the bowser game)

    Town has incomplete information, you cannot be attacked for being wrong on incomplete information.
    Youre human playing a guessing game for funsies. Being wrong on complete information can happen too, due to things like being unable to read and process all the info in front of you due to RL constraints. Like, you can shoot someone who is lock cleared by the mod in a mash and not be game throwing because you simply didnt see it and havent read $%#!.

    There are way, way worse plays than guessing wrong for having suspicions.

    There is no right way to play, here I found a wolf using my process and then used my process to identify other people are likely wolves but none of them could be because the setup had 1 fewer wolf than expected.

    If I get a pass for that, everyone else gets a pass for guessing my alignment wrong or anyone elses, or town reading a scum or whatever.

    https://forums.giantitp.com/showthre...r-forum-gamers

    This is a very old thread please do not necro it, but see my speech in the opening post.

    What makes a good werewolf player?

    Everyone in this game is a good werewolf player.

    I'd play with any of you again infinity times. You're all okay with me.

    It has to be allowed to guess wrong.

    Its not only more fun, casual, civil, and fair on the other players, it also means your own $%#! is covered when you guess wrong.

    There are advantages to not being toxic. People dont usually berate you for being wrong when you are!

    It's not an act purely to cover my own $%#!. I genuinely believe it.

    My home forum was very casual, not competitive, for a very long time. I'd play with any of them again. They could guess wrong every single round, wouldnt matter.

    Scums often try to look better than townies, its one of their most common postures. The other is power wolfing and burying correct townies and yeeting them, another is being passive and less aggressive, whether the guesses are right or wrong. There is often some blend of all of the above happening in games.

    Townies can look very townie while being very wrong.

    Bur looked amazing while suspecting Gira, by process.

    Michelle looked amazing while suspecting sloth, by process.

    DJ Eternal looked ABSOLUTELY lock clear by process when he pushed Schweppes to death and then stalled and dithered with cold feet. Holy $%#!, I never see that from wolves. They usually pick A, B, or A and B both.

    C, not knowing what to do and not pushing either option, is really strong. Thats villagery and rare enough from wolves I said repeatedly I would have never seen that before if he was a wolf.

    I still considered it because even now, 12 years in, I see new moves once a year or so. They get me, so I gotta consider new moves as possible scum moves.

    But yeah, if Ive never seen a wolf do it, its hard for me to scum read that.

    SPF looked amazing by process, much more direct, fewer scum tells, not passive aggressive. There was lag.

    Michelle had lag, sloth had lag, which is how I determined he wasnt a godfather. I had severe lag. DJ is probably used to rapid games and turbos or something, explaining his lack of lag a lot. SPF had severe lag as well. Bur had lag.

    All the townies in this game had severe lag except DJ really.

    I could even suggest Weasel's incomplete leans lists were an example of lag, with the benefit of being dead and forced to consider what if he is town. I missed that while alive. It just felt like he was waiting for town to decide to vote correctly or not. I missed finding examples of him being villagery, it was hard for me to see.

    Anyway.

    The system I am using based on experience is really, really good at detecting scummy behavior from scums, and figuring out why their scum plan works and exposing it.

    But if I enter a bad assumption like there are 2 wolves, okay, it fails.

    When I repeated my work overnight and looked more closely at 1 wolf worlds I explained Chuck as lone wolf much more easily.

    I was too focused on prosecuting my case against my suspects and defending my townies to dive deep into 1 wolf world possibilities. I was also tired from the effort.

    I didnt have it in me to dive 1 wolf worlds and sort out who I thought was scum very well.

    If I had infinite time and energy maybe. Infinite posts definitely. But yeah. theres only so much I am willing to give to a game. If this level of effort isnt sufficient then I just gotta lose and move on. Its no good for my health.

    Speaking of which, I have the flu on top of being bedridden with my slipped disc, so I feel like utter garbage right now.

    I still needed to be here at some point to say good game to the fallen scums and to UpsideDownChuck personally.

    Well played, scummos.

    And well played townies, you had the game on lockdown until I showed up. I was probably critically distracting. I blame me for this loss more than anyone else, and I said so in my discord thread.

    Hunt scum good, distract town bad. Yeet town also bad. My fault.

    Still, hope it was okay and people had fun and I wasnt too overbearing. Still trying to sand off whatever rough edges I have as a player, a task that seems endless.
  20. Day 4#1882

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed I just skimmed your wall, SPF, and you may find...

    I just skimmed your wall, SPF, and you may find it hilarious how much we mindmeld by the time you get caught up to present day. I actually got there maybe slightly ahead of you this time.

    I realize I am burning post 50 on this, but I have to get some sleep at this point and I've already finished all the work I could reasonably be expected to do today.

    The main changes from start of round were that I was able to firmly towncore DJ Eternal by picking out key bits of his play all game.

    The other major event is pushing Michelle down to my bottom two and linking her together with Weasel instead of Chuck, primarily because of how Weasel and Michelle reacted to Chuck voting to yeet Weasel, and me checking Michelle more thoroughly in terms of what the dead wolves said about her, what she said about them, tracking her progressions all game, and where she voted and who voted her.

    I think this reaction comes about because Chuck should have been expected to be pocketed by both Michelle and Weasel townreading him so hard, and because there are too many others who are not yeetable anymore in the slightest, and the murders are already going to involve me and sloth, so they can't get rid of Chuck by any other means and were relying on his vote later on in the game, at least until the final round.

    It already doesn't read villagery to me but the kicker is both Michelle and Weasel have proposed that I am a wolf trying to go deep, and while doing so, I tried to yeet my partner sloth yesterday, or now it's my partner Chuck today.

    I go deep by first claiming cop in a game where the doctor is already outed (or dead) and then by yeeting the only wolf on the team who wouldn't be expected to be nightkilled for their claim, and therefore has any chance whatsoever of surviving the game itself.

    I mean no disrespect, of course. It's clearly the best plan for winning the game, I just don't see how it wins the game.

    My current reads are:

    Sloth is bored of seeing me repeat myself and wants to cap every wolf remaining right now, instead of having to wait for everyone else, or see me type even one more word.

    Bur is asleep and will be grumpy when he sees all the walls that have been posted, and will nonchalantly vote for wolves for the remainder of the game.

    DJ Eternal is a big ball of awesome and very exciting to play with

    SPF 50 provides excellent protection against the scum's harmful rays

    and UpsideDownChuck is somewhere being rightside up, probably with his belly jiggling uncontrollably at how events unfolded.




    I am turning in for the night and I am actually going to miss End Of Day.

    Always remember to yeet responsibly. Good night all.
  21. Day 4#1877

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Proposition C: UpsideDownChuck and...

    Proposition C:

    UpsideDownChuck and Askthepizzaguy listen to Uptown Funk and snack on pizza together, because whatever alignment he is is about to win this game, in a well deserved fashion, because UptownChuck survives the game now.

    (I do, after all, predict who gets yeeted. That's the role I was assigned by the game hosts. It would be gauche of me not to continue making predictions.)



    All in favor say aye.

    (AYE!)
  22. Day 4#1876

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Wouldn't you know it? Everyone here in our little...

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1834)
    That said, if we need to flip me, I'm fine with it. I expected Raja to kill me with his ability, kinda surprised he didn't. My guess was that he got blocked, and that's why I wasn't shot during the night.
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1863)
    I accept to be lynched to show you
    1. My town alignament
    2. The fact i am convinced he is mafia
    Wouldn't you know it? Everyone here in our little circle of bolded text agrees that we should not yeet any of the following names today:

    1) Sloth
    2) Bur
    3) Staypositivefriend
    4) DJ Eternal

    In fact, all of those names are so townie that others in the game would literally rather die than attempt to scum case any of those names or vote for them.

    I am not a big believer in "threadspew" as a concept. But, if I were to give a guess, in this specific situation, all of those names are threadspewed town and none of them can ever be yeeted again.

    Proposition A: All of those names are town, and will never be a candidate for a yeet ever again this game.

    All in favor say aye.

    (My vote is aye)

    Proposition B: Everyone who said they would rather die today than attempt to solve for any universe besides their personal pet theory is not particularly villagery, and should be strongly considered for the yeet for the following three rounds: Day Four, Day Five, and Day Six.

    Pardon me, but I have to enter something into evidence.

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#1794)
    Me dying today widens the POE and puts someone who would otherwise always be night killed into a yeet. As long as Chuck or Weasel dies tomorrow, and the other dies the next day, town should win the game anyway. It is a blunder, and an avoidable one.

    If it will take my flip to make both Chuck and Weasel flip, I have to approve at this point. Especially since I do think my case work will not get fully read and Michelle for example thinks Chuck will never not flip town or something.

    That's part of the problem with the idea, is it removes a vote which will cause that result and keeps votes in play which are opposed, which will lead to difficulties achieving majority on future rounds. That is the main reason why i am against the idea.
    All in favor say aye.

    (My vote is aye)

    That's what I get for being lazy and stopping when I thought I found a good vote and the exact team instead of doing what I just did in 1868.

    Which is how I found Weasel, multi isoing him with the dead scums. Had i just done that with Michelle from the start instead of only isoing her by herself I might have made a connection.

    On the plus side, no one else this game has to pay any kind of price for my laziness.

    The next three deaths should be as above, the correct order of course being by yeeting an actual scum, which forces me to die in between the other two.
  23. Day 4#1871

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Mainly because you aren't interested in solving...

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1869)
    @Askthepizzaguy Why can't it be Chuck/Michelle?
    I don't think I've seen you explore worlds where I'm town at all.

    Mainly because you aren't interested in solving either one.
  24. Day 4#1870

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed A) The read comes at the end of the analysis of...

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1865)
    Ok I'm here, and I guess I need to say things about Pizza's case of me.

    Part 1 comments:
    A) So, in your case, you literally say my RVS vote does nothing to solve the game. That's not a read.

    B) As was said, you keep pointing out that I'm "interacting with" or "talking to" townies, like that's a bad thing. My interpretation of that was that you were trying to say I wasn't interacting with my buddies, but did it the long way round for shock value. Then, instead of me doing scummy things [X, a low number], I'm instead doing scummy things [Y, a large number] while still basically accusing me of the first thing. I think it's intent (and potentially the whole post's intent, actually) was to make my play appear much scummier than it actually was. On top of that, you make the point that simply talking to the people I did was scummy... but that ignores context. A lot of the posts you call out are me responding to people who asked things of me. I wasn't being proactive during a lot of those posts, but you're presenting those posts as proactive misrepresents the context of those posts.

    C) You're points about clustering, like other things, assume I am a wolf without actually making a case for my wolfiness.

    D) You also point out hedging language and call it scummy, which... in general it's not. It can be, but not always (usually?). Also, some of those posts hedging are like... really early game... like not having a solid opinion at that point is somehow unusual. 200 posts into the game isn't very far.

    E) Passive language, similar to hedging, isn't a scumtell in and of itself. Like, it's a thing that scum sometimes do, but it can't really be used to prove scum. Cart before the horse. It's similar to "busywork". Like, look at a scum's game postgame and you can say "he did these things" but if you look, so did a lot of townies.

    F) I don't see how wanting the game to pick up with analysis, and I was sad that no one went after the wagon I wanted to create. Those two things aren't mutually exclusive by any means. And they weren't like, emotions really. I wanted more analysis (at that point there really wasn't much) and no one did the thing I wanted them to do. I wasn't actually, physically sad, nor was I actually anxious. "Anxious" is an expression meaning I'm looking forward to when that happens.

    G) How can I use 253 to solve the game when it requires postgame knowledge? I suppose I could have done some worldbuilding, but that's a big timesink especially given I don't actually know if those numbers are true. If I could say for sure "there's 100% one scum on me, one off, one doing something else entirely" then I maybe could have... but like, it's possible, and can't really be used to build a world.


    A) The read comes at the end of the analysis of your body of work this game. The line in question describes your behavior.

    B) There's not much solving content in your interactions with people this game. This is a low risk way to skate through rounds.

    C) Makes no sense. It's part of the case on your wolfiness. Taking an individual line from the case and saying "this doesn't make a case for my wolfiness" is like taking a lego and saying "this doesn't build a lego castle."

    D) When you decide how often wolves hedge, try making this point again. Some of the hedging comes really early, some of it comes later. You continue hedging deep into today. I still have no idea who your towncore is, and what your POE is, because you haven't actually poed anything, updated your reads in a while, or done much of anything all game. Your aborted wallpost where you read some people and left off other people was never updated.

    E) No sale on this point, sir. When you say sometimes wolves do the things you do, and in my experience it is a lot of times, and then you say I can't use scumtells which successfully find scums frequently to case someone because it isn't proof, that's a big nonsense ball to me. There is no proof in mafia games when casing people. I can prove things happened and infer alignment from it.

    F) All of this has nothing to do with solving this game, bud.

    G) You're the one who presented this idea and did nothing with it. This is exactly what Zack did in Chess mafia when he suggested what "the wolves" were doing all day when townies were hammering his partner to death, without ever naming names or using his theory to solve.

    You can argue with me about my scumtells and suggest they don't prove anything until your fingers fall off.

    None of that finds wolves in this game. None of that finds villagers in this game. Gainsaying me is a poor use of your remaining time in play.

    ##Vote Duplicitous Weasel


    Moved to Michelle to indicate I definitely will vote to kill Michelle today.

    Moving back to Weasel to indicate I definitely will vote to kill Weasel today.

    Previous post of mine wolf cases Michelle and links Weasel and Michelle together as the exact team a lot more cleanly than my Chuck and Weasel case.
  25. Day 4#1868

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
    Replies
    2,427
    Views
    52,124

    Completed Vote History of Michelle ...

    Vote History of Michelle


    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#194)
    Quote Originally Posted by sloth (#154)
    Hm. Michelleand Bur? What an odd match-up. Still waiting to hear more from {u sux / phraza / raja} Schweppes' comments on Gira as a wagon are bizarre. Don't really do them any favors. Comfortable leaving Gira and KJ be for now. Hey @Axelrod! What's up?
    Post your complete thoughts please Until then ##Vote sloth Who town reads sloth for being villagery never saw him playing scum?
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#830)
    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#787)
    ##Vote Phraze See you on the flip side
    This vote came earlier than it should. I know the 7 mins who would pass until my claimed hammer were not big, but i disliked this hammer. Eod is the moment when almost everyone is present and can post their thoughts in a moment of pressure of time. Is the moment when reads can be checked with higher accuracy and you ruined it. I don't think you are unaware of this, so I take your hammer as ill intended. ##Vote Duplicitous Weasel
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#893)
    Giving SPF time to read looks like the best thing to do rn Also I am waiting for Killjoy to post analysis. ##Unvote Duplicitous Weasel @Schweppes the P#885 gives me the creeps Ambiguous and wishy washy are words I can use for it and I don't like that. ##Vote Schweppes Current reads are under construction, because I feel that some of my D1 reads should be really bad, but I didn't reread and I maybe won't do it until Tuesday because monday is my work full day and today is family time. Meanwhile I will come into the thread and read all the new posts and say something only if I consider it relevant for the game (mafia term would be lurking, isn't it?) Enjoy your Sunday everyone ^^
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#994)
    I don't really like the stale wagons though ##Vote sloth
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1067)
    ##Vote Schweppes SPF, is not personality, is lack of content who makes me vote
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1319)
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#997)
    let's see if this wakes the game up at all: ##Vote sloth
    Here is the intention to wake up the game who made me post the below line
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#999)
    I like how spf thinks
    But in this push on Usux I don't see from SPF an attempt to solve anyone else by reaction tests like the previous quote implied. Jumping from a playstyle of short reaction test to a case on someone, SPF looks complacent fmpov. This is not wolfy per se, but is not towny either.
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#1015)
    i'm not sure what to make of the fact that nobody made any commentary on the exchange between usux and myself besides gira (and axel, to a lesser extent). i've been mulling over usux's response to me in my head, but i've been low energy today so i haven't really been able to give a detailed response i'll come back to this thread in a few hours and try to sort out my thoughts a little more, but ftr, i won't be here for the deadline, so if anyone has anything they want to ask me about before the EOD, do it now
    The post below is a derp clear attempt, I won't trust it from SPF
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#1016)
    also, i just realized that we need a majority for executions. are enough people going to be around between now and the EOD to actually make an elimination happen? Lol
    Today
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#1260)
    Quote Originally Posted by sloth (#1259)
    I'll take "least surprising NKs for $500", Alex. <taking out the gif> But really tho. @Raja why didn't you protect him this time? Will you be more active now? Michelle's as clear as one can be at this point. Let's start here. ##Vote U SUX
    what make you wanna go for them?
    SPF who had a big focus on Usux yday asking sloth this question means (probably) that her read on Usux changed but in her Iso I don't find a clue to figure how and if that happened. @staypositivefriend can you share more from your thoughts? ##Vote staypositivefriend Sprout avoided any stance on day one, and the way SPF played shows a narrower focus than I expected from her (I know she posted for everyone good reads after she came into the game, but that's not out of her wolf range) and the reaction at the test was bad.
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1340)
    Wait then Weasel slipped when he said your target dies at the second target? Mafia have role cop and they knew it, so Schweppes claim just mirored yours. ##Vote Duplicitous Weasel
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1458)
    Quote Originally Posted by sloth (#1446)
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1377)
    I town read Raja since we had tied wagons on day 1. My perception was that scum doesn't care about the wagons Also it was his claim who made possible the CFD on Phraze and I don't get the suspicion on him from the first place. You can say I am pocketed because he town read me in his first reads, but I don't think scum would benefit from that read in the way he made it. It would be easier to go with a read closer to consensus. Also Schweppes was very relaxed and that means for me that his mate (hopefully just one) is well placed in reads.
    This is ~fair on Raja, in so far as it'd be very hard for him to be scum just by how the game's developed (but not impossible...?) Can I ask what you mean by "well-placed in reads"? I'm not sure I follow that.
    Well placed in reads means universally town read, like for eg you and Gira. I gave up to my tunnel to give you space but that doesn't mean I put you in high town read and i keep waiting from you a thing to make me find you villager if I was wrong in day 1. SPF found in her posts a reason to lock you town iirc and that means something and is connected with your attitude towards Schweppes. And I think if she town read you you are probably town no matter her alignament. So I doubt it's you. I am in a moment when I reread the game until the case Gira made for me, who is a big question mark now that I reread it. I opened his Iso after and I noticed that his strong start is changing into an evasive playstyle, with excuses and little game contribution. His defence for Schweppes linking posts he liked from him is not convincible and he gave up on it after he saw I really have a case against Schweppes. Pizzaguy wants from me to wait until next DP even if the game has 2 wolf flips and his town reads even wrong can't be such a problem if he reveals them. This looks bad for me. Town doesn't have any reason to wait. If he is something like arsonist of course he would say that. Also he said he is PR, town doesn't say such thing. Aand I don't believe in 'i will die tonight' thing with 'let me tell you next day'... Nah. Looking at Schweppes he stated early in the game P#109 that Gira is his strongest town read when he had a 3 players wagon on him. This is ballsy for scum but it's not like I never saw such thing before. The tone of Gira changed a bit after he noticed he received a 3 players wagon after his first cases on Tammy and DJ, and that matches with survivalist mentality, not with a game solving one. His last case was on me and I know it is completely wrong in all aspects, and a second thought I have is that it's made to pocket you. Here are my notes regarding Gira: Gira's P#13 is interesting looks like open wolfing DJ P#15 the vote looks ok-ish now, if I think better at it, because it takes a stance on the Tammy vs Gira thing. I don't think a wolf would make that post, no matter Gira's alignament (we know now that Tammy flipped villager), if P#7 is role fishing then P#11 implies a red n0 mechanics is not impossible (or at least this is what I understood, please tell me if it's wrong). Bur P#16 can be seen as TMI but it looks for me like a good observer's post Gira turns against DJ in P#17, showing his vote for Tammy wasn't really serious. I don't like the last sentence "least we got an easy one", adding it as a third weird thing from Gira after the Omgus and the " you wouldn't be able to catch me even with a guilty" (P#13) Gira p#23 puts the interaction with Tammy as banter. I didn't have time to note things for other posts but my thoughts are expressed above. The only thing I would like to talk about would be his case on me who has few points in P#319 who is an answer at DJ questioning his vote on me. He said my tunnel on Sloth is bad (a new reason to think Sloth is villager if Gira is wolf) and the explanation regarding this is exaggerated, he brushed off my RL saying I was lying about not reading and that is because I was a wolf who can't provide content, which is completely ignoring the benefit of the doubt and speculating in bad faith, and he also said i am a wolf because i wanted to be helpful. In what world is a help AI? In P#297 he is upset I TR Phraze and Schweppes, exactly the 2 already flipped scum. The wording can show TMI for their alignament.
    Quote Originally Posted by sloth (#1448)
    I am done catching up, will absorb things overnight. Super tired, still headachey. I partied! :P @Michelle if not bur, who? I...might still go for U SUX. Or KJ. Nancy Drew is quiet. Hope that changes.
    I'm glad you had fun!! Like I explained above, Gira's slot, now AskthePizzaguy. ##Vote Askthepizzaguy
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1596)
    You used all your posts sir Pizza I choose to trust your claim ##Vote sloth
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1636)
    ##Unvote sloth ##Vote Duplicitous Weasel
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1648)
    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1646)
    @DJ Eternal I have not. I was actually actively against the Schweppes yeet. @UpsideDownChuck This game as a whole has been weird. Like, the only two yeets have been low content scum. We bounced around and ended on scum, without really someone actively pushing them. Like there wasn't someone saying PHRAZE IS THE SCUMLORD MURDER HIM or anything like that, same with Soda and... it still ended up happening. That's just weird to me. There wasn't a lot of urgency then either.
    I pushed Schweppes with conviction after I realised he is scum, idk what are you talking about here. And I wasn't the only one
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1672)
    ##Vote Nancy Drew 39
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1835)
    ##Vote Askthepizzaguy To make my stance obvious, this is my vote for toDay Please read my previous post. Strategically a wolf claiming cop receives a time to proove himself but if we chop first the Poe Pizza gives us today and they flip town we loose the game If we chop him first and he flips town we can trust his lead. If he flips wolf and it's game over, it's all good, if he flips wolf and the game does not end we have time to think at who is the last one.


    From Michelle's vote history, what leaps out at me is the repeated jumping on Weasel every day, until someone brought a pretty crushing case against Weasel today and Weasel didn't do any solving, and now, Michelle suddenly doesn't find anything Weasel did all game wolfy, and furthermore, when Weasel flips wolf today I am his partner.

    Day One

    194 begins the long tunnel on sloth, townie.


    Day Two

    830
    accuses Weasel of majority yeeting Phraze earlier than it should have happened. There was what, 12 and a half minutes left in Day. Track the suspicion, the reasoning being Weasel's hammer being wolfy.
    893 Moves from Weasel to voting Schweppes because Schweppes is creepy, and says she doesn't like that. Later expands upon those reasons.
    994 When wagon on Schweppes is at three votes, Michelle moves off and back onto sloth. Reason for voting sloth: she doesn't like the stale wagon on her own suspect that she called creepy, with reasons Schweppes should be a wolf.
    1067 puts the wagon of Schweppes back at three votes. No additional context or reason given, when the wagons were like this:
    3 Nancy Drew 39 Askthepizzaguy (29), UpsideDownChuck (34), staypositivefriend (18)
    2 Schweppes Axelrod (35), DJ Eternal (22)
    2 sloth Nancy Drew 39 (15), Michelle (19)
    1 Duplicitous Weasel Raja (11)
    1 DJ Eternal Duplicitous Weasel (31)
    3 Not voting Schweppes (19), Bur (7), sloth (10)
    From here, stays on Schweppes until the end of the Day.



    Day Three

    1319 Votes Staypositivefriend here.
    1340 Votes Duplicitous Weasel here. Reasoning is as given:
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1340)
    Wait then Weasel slipped when he said your target dies at the second target?

    Mafia have role cop and they knew it, so Schweppes claim just mirored yours.

    ##Vote Duplicitous Weasel
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1344)
    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1321)
    @sloth Bur can be cautious sure.

    Am I misremembering or did Raja claim that if they targeted the same person twice, that person dies.?
    Here
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1348)
    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1345)
    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1321)
    @sloth Bur can be cautious sure.

    Am I misremembering or did Raja claim that if they targeted the same person twice, that person dies.?
    See, he was confused between Raja's and Schweppes' claims. I don't think this is a slip.
    I think it is.
    Mixing up these claims looks bad.
    Who could make any link between these 2 claims? There is an obvious TMI slip fmpov.

    That looks like pretty solid suspicion to me, actually. Goes away here:
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1370)
    Quote Originally Posted by Gira (#1354)
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeDorkSlipeur (#2)
    Out-of-thread communications:
    The mafia team can only use their chatroom during the Night (no mafia Day-talk).
    so like...there's no way weasel could have conveyed that info to schweppes, hypothetically. but also realistically how did scweppes know to make that claim in the first place?
    You should be right, i was jumping too quick to the conclusion.

    My bad Weasel

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1364)
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1348)
    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1345)
    See, he was confused between Raja's and Schweppes' claims. I don't think this is a slip.
    I think it is.
    Mixing up these claims looks bad.
    Who could make any link between these 2 claims? There is an obvious TMI slip fmpov.
    I'm wondering if this is malicious. All the info I was confused about was all in the thread. IDK where she gets tmi from.

    Remembering that a claim was made but forgetting who made it isn't a hard mistake to make. Assuming scum from it is a leap.
    Take it as you like it.
    If you are happy considering it malicious i will only :shrug:

    Something is not right with the claim.
    I don't know what's wrong but i feel something is.

    ##Unvote Duplicitous Weasel

    That tension never ever got resolved, at no point did the TMI wolf case ever turn into Weasel being a townie.

    1458 Michelle decides to try to yeet Girathepizzaguy for reasons in this post, additional ones found here:
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1459)
    Adding that Gira said in a post he will treat Bur as IC and Bur said something like 'don't do this'
    What wolf would reffuse such offer?
    Bur's answer looks pure fmpov
    For Gira would be just another villager pocketed

    The additional reasons given are that Bur is a townie and because Gira will treat Bur like a townie, he must be a wolf.

    1596 After pushing me to cause me to claim, here is the next move, back onto sloth.
    Noticed this while reading:
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1648)
    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1646)
    @DJ Eternal I have not. I was actually actively against the Schweppes yeet.

    @UpsideDownChuck This game as a whole has been weird. Like, the only two yeets have been low content scum. We bounced around and ended on scum, without really someone actively pushing them. Like there wasn't someone saying PHRAZE IS THE SCUMLORD MURDER HIM or anything like that, same with Soda and... it still ended up happening. That's just weird to me. There wasn't a lot of urgency then either.
    I pushed Schweppes with conviction after I realised he is scum, idk what are you talking about here. And I wasn't the only one

    I don't know what to call this except credit grabbing, and the wagon on Schweppes had a lot of townies on it. This is the same kind of credit grab that Rogan did when bussing Xihirli didn't lead to him becoming locked town two games ago. Reading the room and being on the wagon early doesn't mean much when you jump off of it and onto it without having a progression for doing so.

    1636 At five votes for sloth and 4 votes for Nancy, Michelle suddenly moves off, and onto Weasel, who has zero votes. Progression here is after fully letting go of Weasel earlier in the game for the "TMI slip" and sudden realization that wolves have a role cop, moves onto Weasel for no reasons given. While doing so, she sits and chats with Weasel instead of advancing a case against Weasel, as you can see by going to that post and reading down the page a bit.
    1672 puts Nancy at three votes, and Weasel quickly follows afterward also yeeting Nancy. Weasel also seems completely disinterested in why Michelle is voting for him at all.

    Day Four

    1835 begins a tunnel on Pizza that has no turns, and even pushing onto Michelle's own suspect Duplicitous Weasel only makes her more sure I am scum. When I literally shouldn't ever be able to survive to final 3, because I can get checks and I will have yeeted a wolf and there would only be one wolf left maximum.




    Progressions on suspects all game:



    Progression on Sloth:
    Suddenly has a realization he is townie and votes a different townie instead, just before I get a cop check on sloth to make that happen. Therefore, gets to yeet a different townie instead while keeping her hands clean.

    Progression on Staypositivefriend:
    Didn't see it get resolved ever, didn't see when and where SPF ever became a town read either, will have to check carefully looking for this.

    Progression on Duplicitous Weasel:
    Is a wolf for putting the 8th vote on a wolf on day one with 12 minutes left in a round. Schweppes is creepy, and then the wagons are stale, so the vote on Weasel goes away today. The next Day, Weasel is a wolf, and has TMI about there being a scum role cop, and she deduces that is how Schweppes was able to fabricate his amazing role claim. Wow. Pushes Weasel pretty hard there as well. Then realizes she may have jumped the gun. Later, votes for Weasel again but doesn't give any reasons, try to convince anyone else to yeet there, and sits and has a chummy chat with him.

    Okay, sure, but when did Weasel become a townie?

    How and when did Sloth become a townie? Besides the fact that I was going to get a cop check on him. When before that?

    Where did the suspicion on Staypositivefriend go?





    How the dead wolves spoke about Michelle

    (may not be in chronological order, tabs are messy)

    Quote Originally Posted by Phraze (#598)
    Seems town:
    Michelle
    Axelrod
    Weasel

    Seems okay:
    Scwheppes
    U SUX
    Upside
    Bur
    DJ Eternal

    No idea:
    Gira
    Raja
    sloth
    Sprout
    Tammy
    Quote Originally Posted by Phraze (#600)
    I forgot where but sloth's posting style got me voting them, or was it because Michelle voted there. Don't have much idea other than being against a Michelle wagon.

    Good points on sloth.
    I only know CBA and NTS.
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#582)
    Like here

    Gira
    Michelle
    DJ Eternal
    Bur
    Phraze
    U SUX
    UpsideDownChuck
    Tammy
    Duplicitous Weasel
    sloth
    Axelrod
    Sprout
    Raja
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#941)
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#932)
    Quote Originally Posted by sloth (#930)
    @Michelle re:#893 can you explain more what about Schweppes' p#885 is creepy?
    I also want to see the difference you're seeing here from his D1 posts
    I don't feel the need to compare his posts with D1, because I don't know if my D1 reads were all good.
    The creeps explained in bolded coloured
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#885)
    Maj hang is annoying.

    That's known from day 1, this sentence doesn't help at all

    I had expected more posts as the last person to enter.

    Again an useless sentence for the gamestate. If you want content you make it, not expect the others to play

    Actually in general my opinions about people went up.
    Or not.

    I think this is obvious the part who explains my stance of ambiguous and wishy washy

    I have no idea what the NK was, they were in null for me most of the time, I certainly was not going to kill Tammy, and that's about it from me on NKA.

    No one suspected him until now, why the need to say he wouldn't kill Tammy?

    I only care about:
    SPF, sloth, U SUX, DW, UDC
    today.

    Why care about only 5 people?
    I hope this answers at your question





    I saw DJ answer and that is all I will say about it.
    If anyone has questions, please ask.
    It was all a secret ploy to get spf to townread me by making obvwolfy posts /s
    The prompt was gamestate.
    My answer was, wolf is prolly in the marginally more experienced bunch.
    Im not being wishy-washy at all but I get it, my opinion of some poeple went up and I didn't move anyone down, but also not everyone moved up, but also, this means that some people must have moved down relatively, and yes.
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#494)
    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#409)
    I wish I could figure out how to find a gif that adequately shows my frustration at people jumping back on Michelle the moment I leave.

    ##Vote Michelle

    https://media.tenor.com/no6u_zHHhLoA...VjFfZGlzY29yZA
    and first, wth is this vote
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#495)
    Quote Originally Posted by UpsideDownChuck (#464)

    So looking at the vote count I see sloth is a wagon, which is insane as he is either the most obvious villager
    1. ??

    2. The Michelle votes are nearly entirely based on the perception of a mich/sloth dome. I don't see any actual reads on Michelle.
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#497)
    Quote Originally Posted by sloth (#441)
    Alright, I guess it's time for effort.

    (snip)
    Holy $%#!

    1. DONT USE #EEEEEE text.
    2. I'm not reading that. I'm literally not. Someone please tell me who here actually read that, and formed a coherent opinion on it that's not Michelle.
    3. But Schweppes, its vital that you form an opinion on the discourse. IDK, I don't think anything written in here was going to move the needle for me regardless, I read the first two things and died inside. I like Michelle's more recent posts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#502)
    I mean, I'm having difficulty understanding whether you were just following sloth or not. There's micro-moments in your iso where you give the explicit impression that this is not the case, but I don't know how much I believe it.

    I mostly just think that either sloth is powerwolfing and/or a scum piggybacked and the latter is more likely because I still like some of the language in the michelle case.
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#569)
    I know there are questions to respond to, I think.
    Off the top of my head:

    1. No my approach with Michelle is not wait and see.
    If Mich's scum game is "you'll know it" then this is certainly not "you'll know it". This is heavy-hitting. And I'm just gonna move on from here.


    2. Scum when presenting cases wants to maximize believability and probability that people will sheep and probability that they won't be called out later when it turns out their push flips v. You don't do this by being excessively nitpicky about things, I think nobody would find very scummy. Maybe I'm wrong about perceptions on this site about whats scummy and whats not, but the discourse hasn't convinced me I'm wrong, just alot of blind sheeping.
    Bolded jumps off the page at me here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#1098)
    $%#! slow EoD's

    I'm Town Warden

    Schweppes
    DJ Eternal
    Gira
    Michelle
    Raja
    staypositivefriend
    Axelrod
    UpsideDownChuck
    U SUX
    Duplicitous Weasel
    sloth
    Bur


    Votes for Michelle:


    282 Gira voted for Michelle (1 vote)
    330 DJ Eternal voted for Michelle (2 votes)
    both unvoted
    360 Sloth voted for Michelle (1 vote)
    392 Gira voted for Michelle (2 votes)
    409 DJ Eternal voted for Michelle (3 votes)
    Gira unvoted
    451 Sprout voted for Michelle (3 votes)
    464 UpsideDownChuck voted for Michelle (4 votes)
    Chuck unvoted
    Sprout unvoted
    DJ unvoted, leaving just sloth.

    Okay, so if Chuck is town, I am pretty sure that wagon is all townies, because DJ and Sprout are in my top tier town section.



    Team composition analysis

    All wolves who died so far made arguments against the Michelle wagon and put Michelle high to very high in their leans lists.
    Schweppes hedged, "liking" some of the arguments against Michelle while also "liking" Michelle.
    Michelle argued in favor of Phraze, and hopped on and off of Schweppes, positioned early on the wagon for credit.

    Weasel who kept getting accused by Michelle all game did not try to push on her, even when she claimed he had TMI about a wolf role cop. Didn't question that Michelle accused him for voting for Phraze as the 8th vote. Didn't question why Michelle moved off of Sloth and onto Weasel without giving a reason.

    Michelle never town read Weasel after suggesting he was a wolf, and suggests Weasel flips wolf makes me Weasel's partner, but also insists everyone stop listening to everything I say. "Everyone, we should never chop the one Pizza wants."

    "And you put words in my mouth because why not."

    You literally promised to follow my POE when I died and flipped town, which would be Chuck at that point, when you made that promise.

    "If you flip town your Poe will be chopped. I promise and I think everyone can agree"

    ##Vote Michelle
  26. Day 4#1860

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Before you get started, I want to bring to your...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bur (#1859)
    Yes, I'm here. I'm fully aware that this game has less than 48h remaining. I have free time tomorrow, so I'll work on writing my thoughts and re-reading and checking all the cases tomorrow.

    (Work got suddenly really busy, I haven't had any time to eat a proper meal this week at all.)
    Before you get started, I want to bring to your attention that in my estimation, over the course of the round today that I had pegged Weasel and Chuck as partners, but during that time, Chuck tried to solve the game and seriously considered Weasel as a suspect at one point and also questioned me at length, with questions that were actually intended to understand how I solve games.

    I want to point out what Weasel did all round was to stall and build a small world where me and sloth were the exact team remaining, but he didn't really push that world or even visibly believe either me or sloth were wolves.

    I want to point out that during this time, Michelle has had a poe of just me, and just gave away what I believe is TMI that the game doesn't end when Weasel flips wolf, and that I would survive the night tonight for some reason even after being a claimed town cop so I could be yeeted tomorrow during day, and then after that, she plans to yeet Chuck in the final round because only then will anything I have to say this entire game be of value, not before.

    As such, Michelle is now less likely to be town to me than Chuck, and the reason for her sudden collapse is because Weasel is going to flip and she doesn't think she can survive the entire game unless she gets one additional misyeet besides Chuck.

    That's my current theory, which is quite a bit different than the billion words I posted today worldbuilding Chuck and Weasel as the exact team.

    That update should let you know that a lot of my work today is work I consider obsolete when it comes to concluding Michelle should be town and Weasel's only partner should be Chuck.

    That's all gone now, for strong reasons.

    You can now skip literally all the rest of my walls if you wish, though I continue to maintain my town reads on SPF, you, and DJ Eternal are rock solid, and if you want to examine why please do so.

    My vote is at your disposal, and its' Weasel for me today or Michelle at this point.

    If you were to push it to Chuck today, I now have cold feet on that for reasons beyond my control. Look at what Michelle is doing. That's all entirely on her.

    The point is, I have 4 townies besides myself who I am really increasingly sure are rock solid, but my poe just expanded by one name for reasons that could only be explained by watching the entire round unfold over the past four days.

    There are a lot of words to read between then and the conclusion, so I wanted to help keep you apprised.
    @Bur

    Hope this helps you at least get where the heck MY head is at.
  27. Day 4#1857

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed You also have to predict me being alive for some...

    You also have to predict me being alive for some reason.

    Why in the blue hell would I be?

    Yeeting Michelle to have a cop check on Chuck is exactly what my orders are going to be tonight. Reverse the order on that.

    Last night's order was dead backwards.
  28. Day 4#1856

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed And this goes beyond tunneling all the way to...

    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1853)
    If Pizza's case is so believable and Weasel flips wolf then they are mates.

    I don't see any world of Gira making that play as town in this moment, no matter how Pizza plays.

    Where is @sloth? What's your meta for KJ? Come and say your opinion please

    @staypositivefriend I am waiting for your ideas too.

    I am curious, who's pasting the VCs?
    And this goes beyond tunneling all the way to wolf agenda.

    We were already hitting those speed bumps a while ago where I even used the word agenda several times, and I was still leaning this should be town.

    After that, it got worse, to the point where I told Michelle directly that because her POE should be Weasel and Chuck whenever she is town, and unless she could point to a wolf outside of that, that would remove her from my town and put her in my POE which only had two names prior to that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#1831)
    (SNIP LARGE AMOUNT OF TEXT)

    If I just explained why a wolf is a villager @Michelle, point out where it is. What is my mistake here and where is it?

    You yeet me today and me and sloth die. Tomorrow your personal POE is Chuck and Weasel unless you personally point at a wolf named Bur, DJ Eternal, or Staypositivefriend.

    So where is the error?

    Use the time remaining in the round to find it.


    I need to see Weasel or Chuck flip to know for sure they are not paired because I could seriously entertain any other name, and I just locked everyone else town in that universe but you personally, and I have a big fat case that youre town.

    Walk me through how I was wrong, so I know you had a reason to yeet me in the definitely incorrect order. Make it make sense.

    When you do, I will continue to just endorse flipping Chuck or Weasel tomorrow if I die today as my legacy.

    If you can't, then I have to crumple up a lot of work I did today and expand my POE to include you. At that bumps into all kinds of $%#! that makes no sense to me, like how you called Schweppes creepy.

    I would need to start wolf reading posts like that and I am not sure if I am capable of doing so because it really dont make any sense. I'm in the rabbit hole too deep right now, and I need the scum plan to make some kind of sense even if I disagree with it as a strategy.

    It needs to not be insane. Make it not be insane, you have 2 days.
    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1833)
    I believe you are not stupid. I am convinced you are 10 times smarter than I am. However that's not the point here.

    The thing is if you are a wolf you spewed no one because everything has a high level of wifom

    Above the post you linked about how to town is a post about how to wolf who is as detailed like the other one.

    I get it's a science for you as either alignament and you serve it as you like it.
    I, as Esl and with a short amount of free time, I play extremely different. I put reactions and emotions above words when I make a read and my perosnal Poe is you because of Gira mostly and because I know you can post all you posted as wolf.

    We are 8 with one or maximum 2 wolves. If you flip town your Poe will be chopped. I promise and I think everyone can agree

    @Bur
    @DJ Eternal
    @Duplicitous Weasel
    @sloth
    @staypositivefriend

    What do you think about the above?
    Zero attempt to world build any of that.

    Michelle is proposing to chop me tomorrow if Weasel flips wolf and then presumably, you in final 3.

    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1853)
    If Pizza's case is so believable and Weasel flips wolf then they are mates.
    There is literally no explanation for me not being murdered when I am a claimed town cop. I have to survive 2 yeets after today when Weasel flips wolf today.

    And tonight I would submit a scan on UpsideDownChuck whenever Michelle is yeeted tomorrow, to force myself to either get murdered by either Michelle or Chuck, or I arrive the next day and have a shiny shiny shiny town scan on Chuck.

    For one, I'd have to see such a sequence of events unfold to take any of it seriously.

    But secondly, Michelle here is planning out failures.

    On Weasel flip wolf the game would be over with three wolves.
    To flip Chuck on the final Day, Pizza has to flip town tomorrow after yeeting a wolf Weasel.


    Chuck, welcome to my town.
  29. Day 4#1855

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed UpsideDownChuck From an earlier post to you,...

    @UpsideDownChuck

    From an earlier post to you, for reference

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#1827)
    (snip)

    5) Michelle should be town by process and belief and strength of her belief in her process and unpairing posts between her and Schweppes. There are dozens of tiny indicators all over her iso and work this game that she is being genuine in her tunnels, and struggling to believe her scum reads are town and her town reads are scum. It's stubborn to the point of having an agenda, but without all the other telltale signs of having an agenda. It looks like an agenda in my opinion because her agenda is to yeet her suspects and believe in herself, and if she were a wolf then she (meaning most players) wouldn't believe I was a wolf this hard, almost all of the time. That applies to most players. I've never played with Michelle before that I can recall.

    4) DJ Eternal should be town, because there were posts sharply indicating unpairing, meaning, not partnered with the dead wolves just by isoing said wolves and bumping into DJ's posts throughout other people's isos as well. The narrative there is he's just a badass who busses hard, and he doesn't mind being by himself after dunking other wolves. I do stuff like that. In my judgment, he's not a wolf, because that's the only narrative where it fits, and I just don't believe he dumpstered two wolves that quickly when he didn't have to. I also don't see him partnered with Weasel at all, because he looks better than Weasel and should have been going deep in that scenario, and Weasel tried hard to kill him, when Weasel objectively looks worse. I could be a sucker for that, but I doubt it a lot.

    Also the rest of my reply to you, sorry it took so long.

    I am spoilering it because it is War and Peace.


    Here I have DJ as 4 and Michelle as 5
    , but posted in the wrong order, because most of the game here, I had Michelle higher. Michelle was one of my original town reads that I had focused on due to her war with sloth. Her posts and sloth's posts were the ones that dragged out my initial analysis of the game as I am reading it through during the first pass.

    While I am reading this I am diving the various parts of the game where wolves are under pressure or people who haven't been flipped yet were, to look for decision points. As I am reading more of DJ's work, DJ is higher, and I wrote both paragraphs and changed the numerical order in my POE but neglected to shift the two paragraphs to make it visually in POE order.

    To be clear, DJ being numbered as 4 is intentional here. A few hours later I pulled that post from SPF which led to a dive on a different section of the game, and that strengthened DJ's town resume to me even further. There's an entire tier of difference between DJ and Michelle, because of the following thought process.

    Michelle to be a wolf needs to have made some distance from Schweppes that looked absolutely real, and then, moved off in a way that burned her town credits for it, needs to have argued against a Phraze yeet in a way that looks villagery, and needs to have tunnel vision on several townies throughout the game, and look like a villager following her own beliefs while doing so.

    That involves great method acting, it involves high levels of WIM, and just plain old being very ballsy. It's difficult for most players to pull off. She is also very, very direct with her attacks, there's very little in terms of passive aggression, and there's other observable bits that are hard to fake, like having lag in her solving effort.

    Can a wolf do that if they're very veteran and very skilled? Yes. The wolfy narrative there is acting exactly like a townie would while doing things that push a wolfy agenda often, but not even always, because Schweppes got pushed initially for things Michelle and others did observe about him.

    But there's a different tier of difficulty where DJ Eternal is on.

    That progression on Schweppes is excessively rare to the point where I literally cannot remember ever seeing a wolf do that to a wolf buddy.

    It's really in between distancing, bussing, or defending. It doesn't actually match any of those strategies very well at all, and looks like a townie pushing a wolf he finds scummy, and then, when the moment of truth arrives, there is cold feet, and tinfoiling, but not trying to shield Schweppes, or bus Schweppes, while still trying to solve a mystery and, eventually, affect the outcome, but it is too slow and too understated to really make the decision.

    That's threading a needle, occupying a space that wolves don't occupy if I were to put all examples of wagoning for distancing from my memory down on a heat map and watching where all the wolves land.

    They either land on "bus the wolf" or they land on "shield the wolf" almost always, because the original distancing and case work was strong. That means everything after that has a planned response in mind.

    And even when "bus" and "shield" are both chosen in a have it both ways strategy, those are vocalized or pushed harder.

    The original bussing was the loudest, back well before the claim. The shielding was quietly thinking of ways the town doctor could be a mafia role, and how Schweppes' role was the town's real doctor, while being incredibly wary of maj-yeeting a PR claimant, and therefore suggesting a third way, which is to move away from both claimants altogether and go for U SUX instead, here.

    The first move puts Schweppes in danger, period, while sloth the townie had a larger wagon, and Schweppes could be considered the alternative wagon, with 2 votes, and Nancy had 2 votes. So there were 2 other townies on the chop likely. This would be getting on the distance or bus strategy early, which I approve of because it is strong bussing that does convince people the two are unaligned.

    So far it makes sense as a scum strategy.

    After the claim, the shielding doesn't move the needle on actually keeping Schweppes alive, and the third way suggestion also wasn't pushed hard either. Both those other things didn't come close to affecting the outcome and they were offered really "quietly" rather than trying to make a certain outcome happen.

    Because the shielding and the third way are done in such a subtle manner, it had almost no chance of really affecting the outcome and doesn't match the usual bus or shielding (or having it both ways) heat map of what wolves do there.

    At that point it occupies a small sliver of space where it just doesn't occur to scums to fake this level of subtlety and nuance. It's mostly off of the heat map entirely.

    So basically that would be new to me. Or if I have seen it before, it was so rare and so unmemorable that it made no impact, and I remember all the mafia teams I've lost to and why I lost to them.

    I'm just coming up with a blank, so I don't think scums do this type of behavior when they are teamed. It's gotta be really rare if it doesn't even feel familiar to me at all.


    Not only difficult to fake because you have to be landing on a bulls-eye of behavior I can't remember scums doing, it's not the only part of DJ's iso which I feel is not being pulled in various directions by a scum agenda, strategy, survival concerns, or survival of teammate concerns.

    There's just no guilt weighing DJ Eternal down, to put it into words, and he goes with the flow too well at all major decision points in the game that I can recall.

    So not only is it difficult to fake, rare to fake, but it is consistently not familiar to me when I think of scum teams I have lost to over the years.

    That's an entire tier of difference. DJ should be completely clean, whereas to mimic Michelle here as a wolf you just have to be excellent at the game of forum mafia and very experienced at town fakery.

    That puts examples of where I lose to wolves behaving like Michelle in the rare but possible category. That's a tier lower.

    DJ and SPF and Bur are all in the same tier together for me, with Sloth mechanically:

    Bur is also occupying that space where his offense on the two dead wolves is present, villagery, and understated in a way that gains him no credit, and his solving is directly on the bulls-eye in the same way DJ's is. No TMI, no wolf plan that I can puzzle out.

    SPF with all respect to her wolf game which was at least shown to me to have much bigger range of fakery than I gave credit for, I combed through her iso all last night with a fine tooth looking for weaknesses. Sprout and SPF (same slot) are not partnered with Michelle or DJ Eternal of the remaining alive players and most of all, Sprout looked particularly unpaired with Phraze early on, due to their comment on the sloth wagon, if I am reading my notes right. SPF also looked very unpartnered with Bur during the part of the game I analyzed between the two of them toDay.

    So that's SPF's slot not being very likely partnered with a dead wolf, making her not a wolf, and if she somehow were, she still wouldn't be paired with alive Bur, Michelle, or DJ Eternal, just from reading both Sprout and SPF with a fine toothed comb.

    And DJ just should never ever be a wolf for the reasons I went over in this post.

    And it took me a while to get to that level of confidence on DJ, to the point where it goes above Michelle on my tier list, but that's part of what I have been working on in the background when I have had any time at all to keep diving stuff.


    1) Sloth
    2) Bur
    3) SPF
    4) DJ Eternal

    5 and 6 (Michelle and Chuck go here.)
    7) Weasel

    Any townie in my bottom three should be suspicious of the other two,

    But someone isn't. See next post.
  30. Day 4#1848

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed This is straight up bull$%#!, sorry to sound so...

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1847)
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#1844)
    Quote Originally Posted by UpsideDownChuck (#1840)
    I do have a theory who Pizza's partner would be, but I'm gonna keep it secret for now. Or maybe I won't we shall see. But anyway, going back on what I said 'mechanically' I now think Pizza makes more sense mechanically since dealing with 4 wolf worlds should probably be the priority at this point
    This makes as much villagery sense as Weasel saying

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#557)
    @Michelle I think the game where he tunneled me might well be the other game you linked. I honestly don't remember though, it was over a year ago.

    Actually I might have noticed something about Scum Sloth when reading his ISO in Elderlings. I'm not gonna say since if its legit I wanna keep it so I can reliably scumread him later but...
    Which isn't villagery as a process at all.

    This is not how villagers solve mafia games. I pointed this out already in Weasel's iso.

    This is fake content and not ever followed up on by Weasel, and since I am not scum, and to press his case on me Chuck should be naming names, refusing to do is not villagery.

    I strongly urge Weasel to go over today followed by Chuck, both.
    It's not about town or scum, it's about potentially catching sloth in the future.

    My thing won't be the only thing he's doing. He can get caught on other stuff.

    It's actually not the same as what Chuck is doing either. His thing appears to be connective and therefore is likely confined to this game. IDK why he wouldn't share that.
    This is straight up bull$%#!, sorry to sound so uncivil about it. Nothing personal, Killjoy. I hope you understand I consider you a friend.

    This is all in game. What you are saying to me I cannot fathom would ever come from a villager.

    There is a mystery to be solved right here, right now, and you have no interest in solving it whatsoever, and haven't had any interest in doing so all game long, which your iso clearly shows.

    Even the most basic part which is naming the number of players left alive, you haven't even begun to factor in to your nonexistent analysis. There are eight players alive, bud, which means one misyeet left before town loses, not two, whenever there are two scums. You cannot misyeet at MYLO, and final 6 with 2 scums is MYLO.

    All of which you would know if you were even going through the motions of pretending to solve this game. You're not, as toDay's iso of you clearly shows.
    @sloth there's no way he is more interested in solving you potentially some day in the future with his magic bag potential scumtell of you than solving this game right here right now when he is town.



    As for you, Killjoy

    This is basically all you have done today, friendo:

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1704)
    Quote Originally Posted by sloth (#1697)
    Lol. Pretty sure there's only one world where I'm not the NK on N3. ##Vote Askthepizzaguy Weekend, busy. Etcetera.
    Do you actually believe this? The doc has to be higher priority than you.
    That's a NAI comment. I also haven't made it clear Weasel is scummy yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1712)
    Ah. It might be pizza then. He knows what scum me looks like. He literally caught me in one post last game.
    Doesn't read as an actual belief.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1713)
    I fully admit I had a town read on Schweppes, but I was never gonna catch Phraze D1. I don't focus on lurkers D1. Also atrocious is hyperbole.
    Doesn't begin to touch the majority of the case, which is the passive aggressive way he goes about shading other players all game.

    Where is the desire to solve this game? Especially four days in to being suspected and needing to find an alternative to himself?

    There also isn't any indication he actually believes I am scum throughout the day.

    So when his only named suspect is named on no case and has no desire to world build that case, thats not villaging.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1720)
    Doesn't do anything to advance village Weasel's world or his suspects, or build a town core, or close off any of his options for the remainder of play.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1732)
    @sloth Chuck suggested I might just be bad at mafia for the reason I'm doing what he said I was doing as scum. Also it was post 490, when Pizza first really starts looking at me. Pizza noticed the stark differences between my town and scum games immediately. I find his lack of doing that this game problematic. It's not even that he's just POE'd me out. That would be fine, I guess. He's made the steps of POEing me but he also says my ISO is attrocious, which makes me think he also found a reason to scumread me which he hadn't noted before them.
    The bolded isn't even suggesting I am a wolf directly and he continues to make no attempt to really find other evidence of me being a wolf, or to try to show I am town, or convince me to vote elsewhere.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1746)
    I did not see the ask to claim. I'm Shadow, shadowlancerx's dog. Vanilla. Chuck said a lot of what I was gonna say about pizzas post. I'll enumerate specifically what when I happen to get free time.
    This is just "I agree" style content. What that other guy said is my thoughts too.

    This is shallow and risk free and shows no desire to solve a mystery.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1764)
    I'm leaning pizza/sloth atm
    And here is why:

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1769)
    Vanilla Medium probably communicated with a dead vanilla. @UpsideDownChuck I think pizza is trying to create a deep wolf in either him or sloth. He spent some time yesterday saying he wanted to come back today to fly solve, and he comes back and creates a dichotomy between two people, us. There are 7 players currently alive, meaning if two scum we have two miss yeets. I think pizza might be trying to set up a win there. Now, it might not be sloth. I'm not 100%on that. But I think this is his overall strategy.
    A plan which blows up on the launch pad as soon as I don't get murdered tonight. A plan which would have blown up if sloth went over yesterday and is clearly bull$%#!.
    @sloth

    You absolutely have to read this bolded bit as it should inform your vote today.

    There are 8 players currently alive, and if there are two scum there is one misyeet remaining. Namely me, because I have closed off practically all other paths to misyeeting a townie, because I have hard defended anyone in this game I could conceivably call a villager and said why at length.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1820)
    @Askthepizzaguy another huge issue with your case is that we're not both scum. What happens when one of us flips town? Is it Chuck and dj?
    it's never going to be DJ, and if you had any interest in proving that you are not wolves with Chuck you would have offered to vote there at some point, or commented on the case work.

    You have zero interest in solving Chuck, and if Chuck is town, your dealings with him today basically amount to trying to pocket him, nothing more.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1834)
    You're referring to Pizza's case postings I assume? I still think there's serious flaws given the narrowness of it. Either we are both wolves or his whole worldview is wrong. He's not even like, exploring other options. Or rather he's discounted the ones he's thought up. He's wrong, plain and simple. That said, if we need to flip me, I'm fine with it. I expected Raja to kill me with his ability, kinda surprised he didn't. My guess was that he got blocked, and that's why I wasn't shot during the night.
    Rather than solve a mystery, you want to push us closer to MYLO by offering to be flipped.

    ##Vote Duplicitous Weasel


    @UpsideDownChuck

    your poe is currently Weasel and Michelle. Everyone else I have strongly cleared as town. It's never going to be Sloth, Bur, SPF, or DJ Eternal. Michelle can also be town when it is just Weasel left, and the dude simply didn't give up because a standard cop was unlikely in the setup. Simple simple. Michelle can be shielding Weasel here at this point, and even if she is town, I've given up all hope of ever convincing her that water is wet.

    If Weasel is not an albatross of a partner around your neck, cast him off and be done with it.

    I greatly prefer Weasel to anyone else being yeeted this round.

    I don't care if I would get a cop check on Michelle by yeeting Chuck, there is a zero percent universe I'd ever live to see that scan.

    Weasel is a wolf, point blank. This is as confident as I can possibly be without a cop check.

    Dude has absolutely no villaging mindset all effing game and if I am wrong about either Michelle or Chuck I am going to yeet this wolf toDay and that will absolutely put my mind at ease.

    I cannot continue without Weasel's flip, and frankly, neither should anyone else in this game.

    I have yet to see one person town case Weasel in a way that is remotely convincing.
  31. Day 4#1845

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Do it the other way around. There's a vote on...

    Do it the other way around.

    There's a vote on Chuck, and that was evidence wrt Chuck being guilty.

    ##Vote UpsideDownChuck

    Simple simple.
  32. Day 4#1844

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed This makes as much villagery sense as Weasel...

    Quote Originally Posted by UpsideDownChuck (#1840)
    I do have a theory who Pizza's partner would be, but I'm gonna keep it secret for now. Or maybe I won't we shall see. But anyway, going back on what I said 'mechanically' I now think Pizza makes more sense mechanically since dealing with 4 wolf worlds should probably be the priority at this point
    This makes as much villagery sense as Weasel saying

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#557)
    @Michelle I think the game where he tunneled me might well be the other game you linked. I honestly don't remember though, it was over a year ago.

    Actually I might have noticed something about Scum Sloth when reading his ISO in Elderlings. I'm not gonna say since if its legit I wanna keep it so I can reliably scumread him later but...
    Which isn't villagery as a process at all.

    This is not how villagers solve mafia games. I pointed this out already in Weasel's iso.

    This is fake content and not ever followed up on by Weasel, and since I am not scum, and to press his case on me Chuck should be naming names, refusing to do is not villagery.

    I strongly urge Weasel to go over today followed by Chuck, both.
  33. Day 4#1832

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed before I could seriously entertain any other...

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy (#1831)
    I need to see Weasel or Chuck flip to know for sure they are not paired because I could seriously entertain any other name, and I just locked everyone else town in that universe but you personally, and I have a big fat case that youre town.
    before I could seriously entertain any other name.

    EBWOP.
  34. Day 4#1831

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    52,124

    Completed Giving you extra reasons to think that flipping...

    Giving you extra reasons to think that flipping me wolf would be an even more winning endgame is also not a great idea.

    ----(post separator)

    I'm going over SPF's wall in 1787, specifically the bits about DJ Eternal, because DJ Eternal was in my poe and I needed to town case him or point to where he is doing wolfy $%#!, and because I would need probably two suspects if either of Killjoy or Chuck were to flip town, since they appear quite linked to one another.

    So examining SPF's thoughts on DJ eternal for arguments and alignment (for both SPF and for her subject)

    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#1787)
    let's take a look at DJ eternal:

    i’m gonna be honest - a big part of the reason why i’m not more paranoid of DJ and why i’m generally comfortable with rolling with him as town is because of sloth’s townread on him. i consider sloth to be close to “clear” at this point, and sloth has showed a consistent and high level of confidence about DJ being a villager, with good reasoning to boot. i think that sloth is either TMI’ing DJ as a villager if wolf (unlikely), or he’s just correct about DJ being town in general. i have no issues with sheeping the confident reads of my other townreads if i trust them to be >rand correct, and i think that sloth’s townread on DJ likely is
    This part is mostly just trusting Sloth's judgment, which doesn't help me reach a decision on DJ's alignment. It doesn't move the needle, but the next parts of this post do.

    that said, there are several spew-related reasons why i think that DJ is likely to be town as well. i maintain that his treatment of schweppes throughout d2 looks “messy” and unstrategic in a way that comes off as pretty unpartnered. there is a dissonance between posts like p#1050 and p#1181 that i feel like most wolves wouldn’t allow themselves to have, and wolf progressions tend to be very “linear” and straightforward, whereas DJ’s progression on schweppes was all over the place in a way that shows a clear lack of strategic intent
    This highlights a section of the game which I wanted to re-read closely to see if I follow you here.

    Following that progression, I see posts like this:

    ===========================

    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1061)
    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1054)
    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1050)
    Schweppes by far has the most wolf equity rn. Everyone who has played with him knows it (including you gira). I really don't think we are going to get burned on this flip. Sure, it won't give us too much information, but neither did the Phraze flip (though in retrospect, it actually kinda did imo).

    wolf!Schweppes defending Phraze like that is a bold move, but from what I know of town!soda, he isn't afraid to speak up and make bold statements. We know he has the balls to do it, and making bold moves is essentially how to tr yourself as scum (if it doesn't backfire). This could easily be a ploy.

    After reading the thread, it seems we are all burned out. I guess that makes d2 "Fry-day".

    Once you stop cringing vote soda.
    So, let me see if I understand this right. That first paragraph. Are you advocating another policy yeet? It really feels like the point you're making here is that he doesn't have much actual contnet, and it wouldn't be a big loss if town. Am I wrong?
    Yes. This is not a policy yeet because this aligns with his scum meta, and that is pretty much agreed upon unanimously, albeit by varying degrees. The lack of content is the scumminess, while with phraze, i think it was more policy. (I just finished a game with town!Phraze where she was pretty much as inactive as she was in this one, so Michelle may be right that they have the same meta, though I wish for her sake it was in a way that didn't get her yeeted so often.)
    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1063)
    by being burned i mean yeeting a town. I mean I think he is likely scum.


    When responding to this

    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1066)
    Man, I get all hyped up on drugs on soda then you go and post something like this. I got myself somewhat doubting soda now.

    I find u sux's playstyle very hard to read because the long catch up posts in the beginning are generally considered scummy despite the fact that they are more nai in reality. (and frankly, many of his wallposts seem scummy too, but part of that is formatting, and I know the struggle of that). Otherwise, I don't have a huge problem with him tonally. His reads seem alright at a surface level, yet thanks to those who have a much higher skill level and energy capacity than me, some of his actions are starting to not hold water.

    I think that if a sux wagon kicked off, I would hammer at the last second ike Michelle said she'd be willing to for Phraze, but I am just not confident enough in scum!sux (heh) to actually be on their wagon.


    At this point in the thread, a long time passes, and Schweppes claims, and DJ is still on the wagon on Schweppes, when he already gave himself an "out" to move off of Schweppes in that last post before he dipped out for the night.

    This part of that day is meaningful to me for reading DJ eternal, call this a "Decision Point".

    A large part of why Schweppes is forced to claim in the first place is because of posts from players like Michelle or DJ Eternal who are casing Schweppes as scum and urging others to dunk him.

    Then once Schweppes is in position to be dunked, if you intend to keep him alive, you make stronger arguments to keep him alive. To have your cake of distancing from Schweppes, and eat it too, by trying to prevent him from dying immediately. To have it both ways. Or, you make arguments intended to dunk Schweppes to look like a badass. To go deep. It would even be villagery to truly truly truly believe in Schweppes was a villager all along and make that argument as hard as you can, because you literally believe Schweppes is town, and a wolf can do that also, to power wolf and use the Defend strategy.

    All of the underlined bits are reasonable ways a wolf can try to win the game of mafia when their partner is not being widely townread and looked bad due to the interactions with a different wolf the day prior. They fall under various achetypical wolf strategies everyone has seen a thousand times over.

    But the way DJ Eternal chose to react to that situation was to calmly solve it out, and weigh the credibility of the claims, and it reads too much like a standard villager thought process to me, and a threading of the needle where it doesn't occupy one of the main wolfy strategies of distancing, defending, or bussing, or having it both ways and blending those strategies together, or flat out ignoring the wolf. How DJ handled Schweppes in this scenario is a little bit off of the grid. Wolves basically never handle a partner in the specific way DJ has done during that Decision point, because it never fits a particular useful wolfy narrative.

    It doesn't dunk Schweppes hard enough during the moment of truth, but also doesn't try to save him, but the whole reason he is there on the yeet pile in severe danger in the first place is because you pushed him cased him voted him and convinced others to go there. Then at the end you pull off, but do not try to actually push and save your buddy, nor do you really try to credit grab by more concerted bussing effort? That's the worst of all worlds when it comes to "having it both ways". On a very surface level read of that endgame, you can miss all the context leading up to it that is any good for you, and instead, you can just be accused of waffling or perhaps never intending to actually bus a partner in the first place, so it's just flat out distancing, overlooking nuances here which indicate against. The lead up to that decision point tells me that any wolf going down this path wouldn't actually waffle when they get to the end point, they either bus for credit or defend that wolf hard.

    You generally don't put a partner's butt into the fire in the first place unless you're trying to distance on purpose, which means maintaining a clear and firm distance, and if the distancing strategy blows up and he almost dies, you either bus him or you try hard to actually pull him out of the fire. Even if you try to have it both ways, how Chuck did it made a LOT more sense to me as a wolfy agenda of distancing and then trying harder to save Schweppes, because he then has cover to actually do so since there was a claim, and because there was significant distancing beforehand. Or how Weasel did it makes more sense, vaguely town read each other and suggest that the yeet is a policy yeet, and try to stop it.

    That all reads like a wolf can have done that, but how DJ did it is just not how wolves do it in my experience. This isn't one of the ways they handle their partners that I can ever remember having seen from a wolf doing this to a partner wolf. Get the wolf nearly yeeted, pull off during the critical moments, quietly try to solve it out, weigh the claims, and be wary of hammering a town PR, but not really trying that hard to push the needle the other way. Why would you distance from a buddy if that was your grand idea for what to do when the moment finally comes? It's much, much too understated, it's not theatrical and it causes a lot of other people to be spewed town for not a lot of gain and a loss of a buddy.

    That's basically the "flip a coin, it lands on its edge" result. This specific form of progression on a partner is just not one I can recall seeing, for the reasons I just went over. It has nothing to do with any of the wolf team's main strategies for handling partner interactions, and it isn't a common enough type of interaction for a wolf team to come up with it, because whenever the original distancing begins, there's always a plan in mind for what to do when the wagon approaches critical, and that plan basically always is a binary, defend that wolf or bus that wolf, or try to have it both ways. Somehow, DJ's behavior during that time doesn't really qualify as any of those.

    Yes, there's reluctance and a suggestion to go elsewhere, but it's nowhere near strong enough to really alter minds or affect the outcome.

    It looks exactly like a townie who has pushed a wolf to near death, got a little bit of cold feet, and tried to analyze the claim info a bit.

    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1138)
    Quote Originally Posted by Gira (#1135)
    Quote Originally Posted by Bur (#1127)
    @Gira you said that you think soda man is town here in your p#970. What's your current opinion about his wagon and him being at L-2?
    still like my vote where it is
    but you immediately believed Raja's claim?
    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1139)
    ##Unvote Schweppes

    I'll let the wagons tie for now.
    Though I think I know what the mafia pr might be...
    See, this part here loses a lot of the initial distancing credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1162)
    Quote Originally Posted by Bur (#1160)
    Quote Originally Posted by Axelrod (#1157)
    Right now I have a couple issues, but one large one is Schweppes apparently concluding his role and Rajas could be complementary, when Raja was being explicitly cagey about claiming his entire role. Like, that’s quite an asssumption.
    Don't forget that Soda pop is also a vig
    I feel like it would only be complementary if it was like even/odd restricted. That makes less sense considering he has to jail someone twice to kill them.
    A post like this matches more along the villagery mindset of someone who is trying to solve out the claimants rather than necessarily support Schweppes or bus Schweppes.

    And then here:

    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1174)
    You know, I'm starting to lean sux scum, actually. I am afraid to commit because I might be tinfoiling, and I don't want to throw because of this.

    I might as well just out my thoughts now.

    Raja is a veterinarian. Vets do more than just help animals; they also put animals down, with medicine. Raja said he gives people pills to help them live, but it could very well be poison. This is only a viable option if Axel dies tomorrow though, and it is pretty much guaranteed if there are two kills.
    That's exactly the correct mindset to have if you consider Schweppes claim even semi plausible after barreling him toward death yourself with your own solving hand.

    Then, it follows with a valid reasoning about how Raja could have been scum all along, where his role is useful to scums, and Schweppes' claimed role would be useful to town.

    That follows, and makes complete sense to me.

    It is wrong as a conclusion, but all of those thoughts read as organic.

    ===========================

    Back to the original quote from SPF:

    i could argue that it shows a lack of internal consistency for DJ to push on schweppes with such conviction only to shift his focus off of him shortly after, but i think that’s just how DJ operates as a player. his posts have a general sense of transparency/”openness” that i find it difficult to believe would come from a wolf (such as him admitting that he still might end up voting me on p#1569 after his reasoning to wolfread me was proven wrong. if dj was playing from a wolf POV, i think that he might get tripped up on his reasoning being “wrong” and try to find a way to justify his vote on me, and it would take quite a lot of confidence for a wolf to acknowledge that their reasoning is wrong but still continue pushing on that same person. it shows a sense of vulnerability that i think most wolves struggle to replicate)
    This bolded bit is not only true, but in general, during every point in the game where the thread state could cause tension, anxiety, or strategic pull of needing to do "team moves", DJ Eternal walked away from each of those important events along the timeline with no stress, no obvious "pull" toward a scum team agenda.

    For example above with the end of day resolution on Schweppes, his reaction to being pushed by me yesterday, his volunteering to help yeet you instead just to get consensus that day for majority, and his interactions with you while that was going down, all read tension free and without being tripped up by the sudden changes in thread direction with potential consequences for wolf buddies or himself on the line in every decision point.

    Basically, the diplomatic state of the thread, the status of the wolves that have flipped, and his own survival personally, none of those things exhibited much of any "pull" on his decisions. There was no hesitation, no tension, and no wolfy team agenda.

    It is remarkable for a wolf to be able to do that on that level and have it look 100 percent organic.


    Reading that post:

    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#1564)
    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1562)
    I would be willing to sheep you on spf if we are desperate for a lim. I asked about the vote too bc it pinged me as opportunistic because I didn't notice any indication of that happening.

    Also, I would feel like a goat if I pretty much solved it by early d2.

    I'll be around eddd so i will be available to change my vote later.
    how did you not get any indication of it happening? i laid out my reasons for finding bur wolfy on p#1460, explained that i was finding bur increasingly wolfy on p#1461, and said that i'm voting within bur or usux before i go to bed on p#1499. respectfully, if you didn't see any indication of me suspecting bur or wanting to vote for him, then it means that you haven't read any of my posts in the last 24 hours

    i'm actually not confident about bur being a wolf by any means (and i think the towniest thing he's done today is go after upsidedownchuck as opposed to pushing on a more LHF slot from his position (such as u sux or myself), but i think he looks wolfy on a holistic sense and i would like to give nancy a grace period since she just entered the game recently

    i also explained to pizza why i strongly disliked his reasoning for townreading bur/u sux on p#1460, which he didn't respond to or acknowledge at all, which really only bothers me in the context of him pushing on me without having to seem to have any developed thoughts on my posts. i think that he's more likely playing from a town POV than not (primarily because of gira) but i don't really agree with how he's forming reads as a whole, and i don't think i'll be able to find common ground with him before the day ends

    i need to go to bed and likely will not be back for the EOD, but i wanted to write this post quickly before i leave
    The bolded blue rings true as one of the most sharply villagery things Bur has done all game, which was a large part of my initial hesitancy for yeeting Bur, this was back before I had iso'ed and properly towncased Bur, even before I had digested his case on Chuck, the fact that he was choosing Chuck was out of place for what is far more natural for a wolf to be doing in his spot. He also isn't making anything up about Chuck's progression on people being wolfy. Chuck's progression on a number of players is wolfy on close inspection, because of the options he keeps open for himself, and the have it both ways nature of it.

    My only real concern with DJ is that his posts so far today feel kind of …limp, and almost lacking in the conviction that was present in his posts throughout d1/d2/d3. even so, i feel like i have more reasons to townread him than not, and i think it’s likely that he’s just town
    Only negative thing I saw so far today was (in general, because I would have to pull quotes and I'm tired of doing that at the moment) how he is approaching my slot in general today, as all that happens when I die is we also lose sloth. It's not the best for solving the game out. It's a bit like choosing No Yeet in final 4 or final 6 when you have a locked clear townie, all that does is allow the mafia to hit the locked clear townie. Hitting me today does that, and he argued for it positively.

    But that's a play optimization thing, I have no idea if it is alignment indicative for DJ.



    -----------


    Consider this part a separate post

    The above is getting unwieldy due to the number of quotes in it, and my eyes are starting to glaze over from being tired and I keep using preview and trying to find my place and review the various sections and it is all starting to blur together for me.

    So, in case the above post is just really really difficult to read, these are the main takeaways I want to bring forward:

    This post is mostly just specific, concrete examples of crucial decision points during the game where DJ Eternal did moves that are extremely uncommon for a wolf in my experience, or examples of just stone cold stress-free wolfing in a way that is super, incredibly organic.

    Then there's a bit where SPF goes over her reasons for suspecting Bur yesterday, in a quote from way earlier in the game that I saw while diving the sections quoted / referenced by SPF, and here's the deal there:

    For SPF to be a wolf, she has to be casing what I am pretty sure is a townie Bur, trying to get them yeeted, and at the same time grab onto something that really really sharply rings villagery to me due to the thread state at that time, before I even dove Bur, or began agreeing with his suspect, and even then, his pushing on Chuck which is a harder push and not a low hanging fruit when he's supposed to be in a great position after bussing two wolves and then being next to go, is such a non-reaction to the pressure.

    It's just so stone cold, and he could keep all his claims to townie fame and just yeet someone more likely to tip over that day, without it really affecting anyone's read of alignment on him in a negative way, given his record all game.

    Instead he chooses to go for Chuck, out of everybody, with a case that does not feel like bull$%#! at the time, and read very true overnight.

    So Bur reads townie, sharply, from that and a thousand other reasons, and SPF reads sharply villagery for seeing that and pointing it out even though she is in the process of suspecting and trying to yeet Bur AND I had just said that I might try to yeet SPF, and her reaction to that is mainly a reaction to both DJ Eternal and myself not really reading her posts closely, and while she's reacting to that, she's having a deeper thought on Bur's alignment that is cocooned within the entire rest of everything else she is thinking.

    That's all contained within post 1564. This is too complex a thought for a wolf who just saw DJ Eternal offer to yeet her with me, when I just got finished saying I didn't really have a case on her, only POE suspects, while she is pointing out that DJ missed her case work on Bur, while pointing out a part of her read on Bur which she thinks comes from townies and therefore doesn't even really support her case.

    That's amazing.

    That is a thought bubble inside of a different thought bubble which should be a detail that makes absolutely no difference whatsoever to Wolf-Staypositivefriend.

    She's already voting to yeet Bur. She already cased Bur. She is being discussed as a yeet instead by two people who obviously haven't even closely read the $%#! she's been saying, and her priority here is to point out the part of her own case on Bur she disagrees with the most?

    ?????

    That's anywhere near the forefront of her mind?

    Listen, if that's what a wolf does this game, I always lose this game. That's not acting I could ever convince anyone else comes from wolves even if I were to somehow talk myself into believing it.

    It's not even that it doesn't occur to wolves, its because it literally has no utility. Bur is in danger and you tried to kill him, there's no use trying to pocket him now when you still are voting him AND you're only putting this as one point in his favor and putting more points against him.

    I can explain moves which appear to be suicidal but win a game, like gambits, or bluffs, or moves which are designed to make you look really really really unpaired.

    I can explain moves which are too wolfy to be a wolf, like hardcore defending wolves with case work I believe.

    I can explain pocketing a townie, I can explain smudging a fellow wolf.

    What I cannot explain is why when it wouldn't make you unpaired with Bur, when you're already voting Bur, when you've already cased Bur, when you're under potential voting threat, and two people offer to yeet you on no case, and admittedly not reading your own posts, your priority is to deliberately slightly weaken your own case work on your target, while pointing back to that case work, while asking for your case work to be read.

    And that's not all, while doing so, bring up the bit of bizarro world logic I used to defend Bur when I was saying both Nancy and Bur were bad yeets in my estimation, where my logic was, Schweppes shouldn't be putting Bur as his bottom 1 wolf candidate because he is basically outed from now on, which is logic that only applies to me and how I play the game (and people like me) but does not apply to Schweppes at all.

    A) It was a very good point, Schweppes doesn't think anything like me and in that case, Bur wasn't under voting threat, which weakens the point immensely. Put both together and that reasoning is dead on arrival, and I agree with that wholeheartedly. My reasoning there was putting MYSELF in that position, and that's something in principle I would just never do because I dont risk wolf buddies when I am outing myself. That's a strict never-do-this in my playbook. Schweppes I have no idea what would be in his playbook, but it's nothing remotely similar to me.

    B) She's bringing up that I didn't respond to it, rather than trying to push an agenda that it makes me wolfy for suggesting the original bizarro logic, or for delaying in answering her, or for trying to push her to death without a case.

    Literally any of those things should have been jumped on if she is a wolf because I am town and all of those things are wide open cracks in my townie armor, YOU HAVE TO SHOOT THOSE.

    Whenever you have an opportunity to rhetorically discredit or gain the upper hand on a townie especially when your own life is in jeopardy you have to go on the attack.

    She completely and utterly missed that and took zero wolfy advantage of that situation. That just doesn't come from wolves.



    So to summarize the freakin' summary



    A) DJ Eternal sharply not wolfy on several major decision points in the game, because DJ Eternal made a decision that I never see wolves make, which is the path of pushing a wolf sharply on good case work, getting cold feet at their claim, but just dealing with the claim like a townie does (like Bur did, even), instead of going sharply toward bussing for credit or defending because you have all the cover in the world to do so now (like Chuck had, for example) just calmly solving the problem, but the problem largely never would have existed if DJ hadn't been one of the major voices pushing him into enough trouble to claim in the first place.

    Most of the pushing Schweppes to death have to have been townies, because of how many there were, how many are known town, (AXELROD, RAJA, U SUX, and to a lesser extent sloth who capped it off. Michelle read villagery during that bit, and Bur read sharply villagery during that bit.)

    That's the entire wagon outside of DJ Eternal himself, and his behavior toward that does NOT read like he was distancing for credit, because he kind of set his distancing on fire when he dithered on the decision at the end in a villagery way like Bur did.

    He pushed it to that point harder than Bur did, and let off the gas a lot, and then suggested a way the town doctor could be guilty and Schweppes' claim could be correct, but it read exactly like a townie tinfoil.

    This just does not look like a wolf plan, point blank, period.

    That's not the only instance or example of DJ eternal not looking wolfy in this wall, but to get to my next point.

    B) Staypositivefriend sharply not wolfy in a way that I just ranted about after the "consider this a separate post" divider.

    It's too complex a thought. There's a thought balloon around Bur being town contained within a larger thought where Bur is scum, contained within a thought about DJ missing the case work, combined with a thought that my process for reading Bur town didn't ring true at all, in the context of I'm pushing SPF without a case due to POE reasons, and DJ Eternal is willing to yeet SPF without a case just so we have majority.... and her main priority is pointing out her reads and making sure her cases get read, rather than trying to position herself better for survival in any way or generate offense against two bad actors at once, or anyone else in particular. She even gives reasons not to go for Nancy slot.

    There's a point where there just isn't any value in denying yourself avenues of offense against people you ABSOLUTELY CAN misyeet, me a townie, Nancy the townie, and so forth.

    There was support for hitting Bur, and SPF was already supporting it, which means she really has no utility in pulling back. That's either a bus in progress or it's a townie anyway and pulling out doesn't do you favors either way.

    All of that falls under the category of there's no wolfy utility, this is just a townie thought contained within a townie thought contained within a townie thought paired with more townie thoughts because SPF is a townie solving the game and has no wolfy agenda.

    C) Again, Bur is just really villagery for the megawall case I stated on him being town, and I trust the progressions on Bur from people I believe are villagers. This is not people letting go of a wolfy Bur who played well, these are townies independently coming to the right conclusions on Bur. That's what I firmly believe. It wasn't touched on deeply in this post, but I reiterate, these are my strongest reads, along with my mechanical knowledge sloth is town.

    If I just explained why a wolf is a villager @Michelle, point out where it is. What is my mistake here and where is it?

    You yeet me today and me and sloth die. Tomorrow your personal POE is Chuck and Weasel unless you personally point at a wolf named Bur, DJ Eternal, or Staypositivefriend.

    So where is the error?

    Use the time remaining in the round to find it.

    I need to see Weasel or Chuck flip to know for sure they are not paired because I could seriously entertain any other name, and I just locked everyone else town in that universe but you personally, and I have a big fat case that youre town.

    Walk me through how I was wrong, so I know you had a reason to yeet me in the definitely incorrect order. Make it make sense.

    When you do, I will continue to just endorse flipping Chuck or Weasel tomorrow if I die today as my legacy.

    If you can't, then I have to crumple up a lot of work I did today and expand my POE to include you. At that bumps into all kinds of $%#! that makes no sense to me, like how you called Schweppes creepy.

    I would need to start wolf reading posts like that and I am not sure if I am capable of doing so because it really dont make any sense. I'm in the rabbit hole too deep right now, and I need the scum plan to make some kind of sense even if I disagree with it as a strategy.

    It needs to not be insane. Make it not be insane, you have 2 days.
  35. Day 4#1830

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
    Replies
    2,427
    Views
    52,124

    Completed In terms of capability and skill level,...

    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1829)
    @Askthepizzaguy, are you out of your scum range?

    Please keep it short
    In terms of capability and skill level, absolutely not.

    I am capable of this level of analysis fakery as wolf. That's really just a function of WIM multiplied by being able to fake a villagery process.

    At the same time, if I flip a wolf today, my claim always dooms the wolf team when I am a wolf.

    It is not a claim I make and then accuse a fellow wolf. It's not a claim I can make and try to yeet sloth yesterday, either, and postcap myself (which was on accident, by the way.)

    Sloth, Weasel, and UpsideDownChuck would all always be locked clear if I were ever a wolf, which makes this claim and these cases very, very, very stupid for me to do as a wolf. I am a better wolf than to create 3 townies spewed, basically ever, but in an endgame in particular.

    That makes me out of my scum range because for me to be scum here I have to be extremely stupid in a way that isn't "haha, I played a deadly looking gambit and it worked." No, that's just "I spewed townies town, and my team lost." That's in the dumb range, and dumb is not in my wolf range. So when I am being extremely stupid, yes, that's out of my range.

    I expect that to convince no one, but it's also a fact. I am high risk, but I am not stupid.
  36. Day 4#1827

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
    Replies
    2,427
    Views
    52,124

    Completed I am confident in the following order: 1)...

    Quote Originally Posted by UpsideDownChuck (#1825)
    Pizza for most of this game day you have represented a very high level of confidence in your scumread on me/DW. Are you actually that extremely confident or have you been doing this for persuasive effect? I realize if it's the latter you may feel that answering honestly diminishes your persuasiveness but 1) I'd suggest that if that's your strategy it is not working very well on this group and 2) It's important to my read on you and I'm much more likely to cast a deciding vote on you or DW than you are to get me yeeted so I'd encourage you, if you’re in fact town, to answer honestly
    I am confident in the following order:

    1) Sloth is towndue to mechanical info I have and unlikelihood of a mafia godfather in my estimation, otherwise this would be much weaker.

    2) Bur is town, I can walk every post he made all game and it all makes perfect sense from start to finish.

    3) Staypositivefriend is town, because there's not a narrative I can make around her slot's posting, voting, case work, which matches what i'd imagine her agenda would be if she were a wolf. She also shouldn't be volunteering that her wolf range is a lot larger than I made it out to be on peeking at her previous wolf game, though that doesn't push the needle for me. I also volunteer that kind of stuff.

    5) Michelle should be town by process and belief and strength of her belief in her process and unpairing posts between her and Schweppes. There are dozens of tiny indicators all over her iso and work this game that she is being genuine in her tunnels, and struggling to believe her scum reads are town and her town reads are scum. It's stubborn to the point of having an agenda, but without all the other telltale signs of having an agenda. It looks like an agenda in my opinion because her agenda is to yeet her suspects and believe in herself, and if she were a wolf then she (meaning most players) wouldn't believe I was a wolf this hard, almost all of the time. That applies to most players. I've never played with Michelle before that I can recall.

    4) DJ Eternal should be town, because there were posts sharply indicating unpairing, meaning, not partnered with the dead wolves just by isoing said wolves and bumping into DJ's posts throughout other people's isos as well. The narrative there is he's just a badass who busses hard, and he doesn't mind being by himself after dunking other wolves. I do stuff like that. In my judgment, he's not a wolf, because that's the only narrative where it fits, and I just don't believe he dumpstered two wolves that quickly when he didn't have to. I also don't see him partnered with Weasel at all, because he looks better than Weasel and should have been going deep in that scenario, and Weasel tried hard to kill him, when Weasel objectively looks worse. I could be a sucker for that, but I doubt it a lot.

    Also the rest of my reply to you, sorry it took so long.

    I am spoilering it because it is War and Peace.

    Quote Originally Posted by UpsideDownChuck (#1814)
    I don’t know how useful this will be, but I’ll give it a shot.

    You talk about how your scum tells are scientific and probably find wolves. And in a sense, I can see how you might believe that. Some of these things wolves might do, the issue though is that town do them quite a bit too. And really if both alignments do them, and do them at close to equal rates, then they’re really properly understood as non-alignment indicative.
    They won't happen at the same rates as random chance, primarily because the behaviors are prompted by subtle differences in mindset due to the TMI wolves have and their team/alignment related goals.

    Subtle differences in mindset which are alignment indicative like not really believing your own case work against suspects, not wanting your own suspect flipped today, wanting credit for yeeting a wolf but not wanting to be alone too early, creep up in many many many games, and the tells that express those mindsets are varied.

    Examples
    Example, the tells under the category of passive aggression, are when wolves do:

    This post is odd, off, interesting, strange, weird, bizarre, I "dislike" this post, or saying it could indicate townie or scummy and having it both ways. Many others. Or when wolves berate townies for missing or being inaccurate when they accused or voted or vigged dead townies. Instead of directly accusing a townie of being scum, sometimes they just discredit their solving, or lead others to the conclusion that said player is untrustworthy and possibly scummy, while not directly doing anything about it.

    Tells under the category of wolfy content, would be when wolves do

    "I agree" and "I disagree" content, where you just +1 or gainsay whatever has already been posted rather than really substantively add to the flow of the game. It hides within consensus or it hides within the democratic process of debating things, rather than taking risks. "Talking to townies" is a category where nothing risky or conclusive or alignment indicative is even being discussed and you just pad your post count and word count for the game.

    "I like this post" style content, which doesn't lead to an alignment read and is the lowest possible risk content there is.

    "Feels / doesn't feel" "think / doesn't think" "seems like", taking two positions and hedging, are ways wolves distance themselves from having to take risky stances or make direct attacks or direct defenses of other players, avoiding calling townies wolfy with direct accusations with a strong prediction said player will flip wolf, because they know that player does not, and they have to survive the game anyway afterward. It's a way of avoiding direct blame for being wrong.

    conclusions that do not follow from the reasoning
    votes that do not follow from the process
    doing processes and then not following the conclusions with beliefs that match

    Bad acting like the wolfy "hmmm" the wolfy nervous "lol" and "this makes me feel angry" style content.

    Accusing townies of being hypocritical or Accusing townies of being inconsistent (usually to an absurd degree you cannot believe a townie has as their standard, like when someone says you're voting X for bussing, why aren't you voting Y for bussing too? Answer: because I have one vote, and because my vote isn't based off of only that one indicator, the two slots are NOT identical ever, it's unreasonable to suggest I have to treat them identically, yet wolves make this argument every other game.)

    Repeating yourself over and over without expanding upon your thoughts or advancing the solve. Wolves often sound like broken records.

    Hiding within large amounts of mechanics talk, fluff, or commentating on what has happened so far instead of reading it for alignment and solving the game, is easy content wolves generate instead of solving content. Townies do it too, but combine this with other tells.

    A read on a player going back down to null for no reason, something townies almost never do. Townies become suspects, not nulls, after you have read them town once. For someone to go from null to town and then not be town anymore, they need to be a scum read.

    Tells under the category of wolfy mindset:

    Too Much Information
    Lack of struggle to read townies town or scums scum.
    Lack of struggle to process the game in general
    Wolfy self focus
    Self identifying as "we", "us", or saying "let's", for some reason wolves really think this helps them blend in better and it doesn't.
    Putting townreads and scumreads together in clusters in order to make it so that no one read sticks out and townies have to shoot within a pool to hit a scum buddy that is being townread in that pool, or a scum buddy that is being scum read in that pool, instead of having specific and deep reasons to town or scum read each person separately.
    Planning out several days and nights in advance rather than actually believing your suspects will flip scum and the game will end, this has tripped up more than a few wolves over the years. Essentially predicting town will continue failing for a while.


    Stuff that is not so much tells but deliberate Wolf Strategies and Tactics


    • Distancing
    • Defending
    • Bussing
    • Ignoring


    (one of the above 4 or some combination thereof is always being done by every wolf toward every other wolf in every post. You are either engaging directly, indirectly, or not engaging. Your stance toward them is either null, villagery, wolfy, or kill this SOB today, no lines no waiting. Whatever combination of those stances and engagements, it falls under these 4 categories. This is simply how to sum up what the wolf plan is in a single word that can be used across all games, every game.)

    Tactics that are not tells but choices made to win a game include but are not limited to:


    • Being not very diplomatic with wolf partners or even rude and insulting because they know you're just acting or distancing anyway.
    • Counterclaiming Town power roles or fake claiming in general
    • Forcing town PRs to claim under vote pressure
    • Deliberate derp clear attempts
    • Overly diplomatic / pocketing / White knighting, each are different but all are attempts to control the vote or look better than townies who are less diplomatic, accurate, or are attacking other townies.
    • Trying to guilt trip townies for their bad reads / yeets / vig shots. (Guessing wrong has to be allowed)
    • Trying to undermine confidence of townies in their reads
    • Trying to discredit processes townies use for solving and suggest they do not solve
    • Bluffing (making deadly gambits like telling the vig to shoot you)
    • Appeal to emotion / psychological warfare (example I hate: trying to behave like youre so angry that youre being scum read that it disturbs the enjoyment of the game other players have, so they stop suspecting you in order to keep the peace) and strategies like saying "I will never play with X again because they suck at the game", a strategy my wolf partner last game I was a wolf used without consulting me for and I strongly disliked and was about to policy yeet my own partner for doing. Stuff in this category I highly advise against using and do not like to see in play.


    It's important to note that scumtells are just one of a couple of dozen different solving processes I use, I advise against using scumtells as a method without using the other methods, I also advise that townies do scumtells. If someone follows my guide, I advise at length and I specifically make a gigantic wall post or two explaining that you cannot be lazy and do scumtells as your only process, because rarely, a townie's iso will look like sloth's did this game, or inawordyes's iso in the Multiball 19er with King Bowser where IAWY was town, or how dizzymrslizzy looks every game on Giraffe. One in ten examples an iso looking that bad is just a player you haven't nulled the scumtell process on yet, who reads scummy by these time honored scumtells. It will always be inaccurate if you don't specifically exclude the folks the process should be NULL for. Find wolves yes, but hit townies as well.

    Some townies commit these tells every game because that's how they type. There's even a section explaining it's best to use these on players who you look at their town games and their town games do not commit nearly as many tells in such variety and concentration. You always have to null the scumtell process on players when it provably provides a false positive in games where they are town, and use all the other solving processes instead (which you should be doing all along anyway... never just one process to solve.)

    Regarding "not alignment indicative because both alignments do them": If townies and scums do X in equal numbers per game, but scums make up 1/3 or 1/4 of the population of the game, the behavior becomes statistically significant and THIS is why scums do not know their behavior is a scumtell or that it is alignment indicative. Just because a townie can do it doesn't mean townies do it 60 to 70 percent of the time, which would make it statistical noise.

    Every time a behavior is indicated more from scum than their lower population should suggest, meaning 40 50 60+ percent of the time, that becomes a behavior I notice is often scum indicative. Any one indicator is largely noise.

    However, when a player does 7 8 9 different things that wolves do half of the time or more, and their iso resembles a wolf iso from day 3 or later in every game I've played for years, that tells me that this person MAY be scum.

    May, meaning, could be, over 50 or 60 percent of the time, using solely the scumtell process all by itself.

    That's trash if that's all you use, if you don't want town to lose, because A) you will find wolves doing this so you will get your suspects yeeted by doing this but B) You will also get townies yeeted that wolves didn't have to work hard to cause such a yeet. And eventually you get yeeted for missing that often and doing the work of the wolves for you.

    All by itself, 50 or 60 percent accurate sucks out loud and loses games because the times it misses it does the wolves' work for you.

    However, if tells are 50 to 60 percent accurate and someone is doing 8 or 9 or 15 different things that wolves do 50 to 60 percent of the time, the odds that player is not a wolf keep dropping, especially when it isn't null for them. Each time they do something that is statistically significant that wolves do more often than a town aligned person does, it adds up until it stops being noise and starts being stuff that dunks wolves much more often than 60 percent of the time.

    In practice, what I end up finding is standard levels of tells coming from most players, on the low to middle side, and then a small number of players with concentrated scumtells.

    In the Multiball 19er, with 6 wolves, most of the wolves in that game had a wide assortment and heavy concentration of my tells, and one townie also did. One wolf had a normal concentration of tells with only one or two sharply wolfy tells, and the other was me, who knows how to dodge my own tells. I deliberately never publicly iso'ed my own partners during play because their isos contained a lot of my known tells.

    In Return of the Clowns, the entire wolf team of 3 committed lots of my tells in concentration, and Dizzy the townie also did, but by then I have already learned to null Dizzy as she reads that way every game. They ignored, distanced, bussed, and then defended, each strategy in turn all in response to what town did. Night actions also helped narrow it down.

    Wheel of Life lasted one day before wolves reached majority because it was an experimental, the two wolves in 6 names were still scummier by tell and by strategy (Delay, ignore) and overall behavior than all the townies. Less useful because tells become more telling as the game goes on.

    Love Letter mafia, Rogan committed a few sharply wolfy tells (like credit grabbing for a bus) and it ruined all the utility of his strategy of bussing Xihirli. The inactive wolf was bussed right away, and a mass claim I suggested caught another because there were too many of a certain kind of role and the whole wolf team bussed that one, and the bussing Rogan was upset at not being town read for the bussing, and sharply wolftold during that process.

    War of Princes the first wolf I yeeted did the Delay strategy and was fluffing and openly lurking rather than solving on day 2 after 3 townies had already died. Second wolf on that same team was yeeted for first defending and then bussing the first wolf with no real progression, switching to a bus as soon as the first was in trouble. Two wolves on the other team distanced from each other and Ignored their wolf PR, and the wolf PR was passive and Delayed most rounds of the game. I imagined that the two dead wolves on that team would not be trying to accuse or have scanned their deeper wolf, and that narrowed the pool I used to find the final wolf, by reading them for yeeting / jailing / scanning intent every day when asked those questions by me. It then narrowed down who the final wolf had to be to very few names and I had already determined two of them were not likely to be a wolf. I used a similar process this game to suggest the pool of wolf PRs this game was probably contained within those who have bussed Schweppes or Phraze, because the deepest wolf has to try to get deep somehow, bussing is usually how they do it.

    Fight of the Mafia the wolves Defended other wolves and attacked only townies, and even openly coordinated with opposing wolves while town was mostly inactive on day one. As soon as this was called out, they began trying to bus each other to not look connected but it was far too late for that. Town eventually found them all.

    Haunted by Slept Master Radishes got caught by doing the wolfy I agree and the interesting tells, and I died shortly after. His iso was highly concentrated wolfy tells of mine, tells I learned in previous games.

    Mafia Live in Space the entire wolf team all committed the wolfy Interesting and I agree tells, and one wolf distanced from the other by making cases on the other wolf but not following their own process, making a case on the wolf and voting elsewhere.

    Ticked off contained a fabricated leans list and Defending from the first wolf to die, and Bussing from the deeper wolf, and Ignoring from U SUX.

    Color Wheel 3 of the 4 the wolves had no process on each other, sat in the thread "agreeing" and "disagreeing" with each other and talking about which townies were more or less wolfy than others, to each other.

    Chess Mafia Logic committed loads of scumtells he doesnt usually do, was passive aggressive, and was yeeted for it, while two of his buddies used the Defend strategy on him and died back to back afterward. Zack refused to Name names and made a theory of what the wolves were doing generically but never used that to solve, missing process. The last wolf didn't do anything rational to help the wolf team in any way and was only poe'd by final 4 as being on the lover team. Just wasn't scummy and didn't commit very many tells despite lots of words posted, so I didn't find him directly at all, all game long.

    Dark and Stormy night, A bear aka Beruru committed tons of scumtells before she subbed out for Grapefruit who I immediately went after, and Killjoy had a bad iso that game and I died accusing him. Never found Tau, he looked townie.

    Low Fantasy, Tubba was easy to yeet and was immensely scummy by iso, Tom was doing the Defend strategy so blatantly it is now my sig on that forum, and I also cased Lngrrrr doing wolfy $%#!, and died while that case was sitting in my inbox ready to be fired off as soon as day opened again.


    It's not always scumtells that do it, in fact they are more like the icing on the cake of a good case, and quite weak in a vacuum, but they do help me catch about half of all the wolves I do ever catch, the tells help support the case work I generate, and it helps me sort from wolfy defenses of wolves or townies from villagery defenses of wolves or townies. The less scummily you do either, the better. Combined with lots of other processes and especially reading the scum team for their intended strategy, trying to see if they follow a solving process, believe in their own case work, believe in their own beliefs and solving process combined, see whether they are paired, unpaired with any wolves that flip, analyzing vote counts and wagons for signs of bussing... that's the kind of solving I do.

    Of those wolves most committed large amounts of concentrated and varied scumtells, the ones that did not were caught due to their Team Moves, being paired with wolves, or other players being unpaired with wolves, or being caught not following their own processes, beliefs, and so forth. In other words, not method acting well enough. Some got caught by night actions.

    I showed you a post where dead villager Tammy committed nearly all of your ironclad scumtells. You yourself described sloths iso as oozing with scumtells, and now he’s cleared town.
    If you only use scumtells and do not use any other means of reading a player, you will catch scums more often than random, but also hit townies. I don't ever advocate just using tells alone. The tells point me to potentially wolfy mindsets or missing processes or wolfy strategies or wolfy content, and the tells get me to pay closer attention to that and call attention to it in turn, and the more those tells attract my attention the more I force myself to consider whether the player is a wolf or not.

    I could through the iso of any player in this game and find instances of your scumtells.
    Fair challenge. Go compare Staypositivefriend this game to her previous game as a wolf using my scumtell guide.

    Tell me which iso has more, more varied, and more concentrated instances of my tells. While you're doing that, tell me which iso looks like she is solving a mystery that she is interested in knowing the answer to, because again, it isn't just scumtells I am using to read Staypositivefriend.

    Is there a process she is following, do her votes follow that process? Tell me if her votes are following much of a process of any kind in the other game where she is a wolf. Tell me where her suspicions are and why they exist, and see if you can follow them or even identify them half of the time. If her processes here are much more in line with real solving, her beliefs match her process more, I can follow where her beliefs come from, and her posts are direct and sharp and not so passive aggressive here, that's a visible difference that all indicates town to me, in general, historically, and unless I have a specific reason to null those towntells. For example, if I knew SPF's history and it was full of games like that where she is a wolf, then I wouldn't be able to suggest she is clear, but I also wouldn't have a specific case she is a wolf. Like U SUX here, I knew for a fact he wasnt out of his scum range, it was ONLY Schweppes' spew that locked him clear for me.

    Context also matters for those tells. If I say something is Weird, for example, but I say why it is weird, it is clear that I think it is scummy, and I vote for that person because it is scummy, and I can understand WHY someone might think it is scummy, that's a vocabulary choice and it becomes null as a tell, due to the context.

    If they call someone Weird, off, interesting, strange, but makes no attempt to drive that person into the ground, then you can't really tell if that "weird" comment is real suspicion or if it means "If someone else votes here, I will join there!" while keeping ones own hands clean, leading to blame for the eventual town yeet going elsewhere, or "weird" meaning "see, I am not partners with X, I called him weird."

    Unless youre trying to convince me someone is townie or scummy, I dont care that their posts are weird to you.

    "Weird" is not an alignment in the game of mafia.

    What you do after saying Weird gives me context I can use to determine if you believe said player is a wolf or a townie, how much you believe it, and how much I believe you believe it, why you believe it.

    If I dont have that, then your Weird is Weird in a wolfy way, and I yeet that.

    Bur called Chuck weird, and then made an iso, and a case, and a recommendation we yeet Chuck yesterday.

    From context, weird means wolf. I could follow his reasons and beliefs.

    Generically, "weird" is a scumtell.

    In context, Bur didnt use it how scums use it.

    If I say "weird" because now the discussion is about whether or not "weird" is a scumtell, the context is the word itself and the discussion surrounding it.

    Whenever you remove context, you defeat the entire purpose of using solving processes, tells, or any other kind of case work.

    Context is everything in this game. Removing context always destroys meaning.

    And you’ve also set it up so you can spin anything as scummy. If a player has a negative interaction with a dead wolf their distancing or bussing. If they have a positive interaction they are using the defend strategy, and if they don’t interact it’s the ‘ignore’ strategy. At no point do you ask the question ‘Is this also plausibly explained by my suspect being town’ and then attempt to provide a reason why the answer is no.
    That's generic. There's clear differences between how certain players voted for wolves and how other players voted for wolves.

    If X was a wolf, then yes, their voting for a wolf was bussing. However, when I saw Bur do it, it didn't look like bussing to me, whereas your vote and Weasel's vote did.

    If X votes a wolf and they are a wolf then yes, it is bussing. How did they vote for a wolf, does it look like bussing, what is the rest of that player's overall strategy, can it win for wolves, does it usually win for wolves, what is their process for arriving at that vote for a wolf, does it follow that they really believed their process, their lean, their case work, were they pushing it for real, were they having it both ways and defending the wolf at the same time?

    Et cetera.

    You can set anything up as scummy if you refuse to explain how or why it is scummy. Every time I suggest something is scummy I say how it is and why it is, and in the case of my suspects this game I said what the overall plan was, that I thought it can win the game, that it was more likely that this is the bussing that is coming from wolves as opposed to real suspicion coming from townies, and I said why.

    You walk the game through Schweppes' footsteps and you can see he didn't intend to dumpster Phraze anytime early in the game, but also, you can see where that decision was absolutely made where he knew she was a lost cause. Both have flipped so it's really easy to see. You can see him shield her, and the reasons why he did didn't make sense. Other players in the game noticed the "why" for Phraze being town wasn't persuasive and would either be TMI if it were true or a wolf protecting a wolf if it were a wolf.

    Michelle voted for a townie sloth and for a townie pizza, Chuck voted for a townie pizza, what makes Chuck's vote wolfy and Michelle's vote villagery?

    It isn't as generic as this player voted for town, or this player voted for scum. How, why, what the context was, what the process was, what the reasons were, whether their beliefs looked genuine or not, that leads me to a decision as to whether or not the behavior is genuine and therefore villagery, or fake and therefore wolfy.

    But if you only read a player and think "they voted a wolf, they must be townie" that will lose to bussing and "they voted a townie, they must be a wolf" that will lose to townies making errors.

    Context matters, process matters, beliefs matter.

    If you read a player assuming they can be a wolf, and read their plan, and then describe their plan, then it makes sense.

    Give you an example:

    Colby and Vanta Black and Silverjan were winning the Return of the Clowns game.

    Near game start, they didn't discuss each other much, didnt town read each other, didnt scum read each other, voted for townies, talked to townies, defended townies, and cased townies.

    Their votes spread out, searching for town power roles.

    Later, one night a murder was blocked or defended against, Colby opened the day voting for Vanta, who was either blocked by the town roleblocker or hit the target protected by the town jailkeeper. Then Colby moved off of Vanta once it was clear that town wasnt convinced Vanta had been caught. Silverjan also voted Vanta and suspected Vanta and came to the immediate conclusion it was Vanta, then worked backward to all the possibilities there really would be if she was solving it as a townie would. She voted Vanta while saying she should really be voting for me instead, then changed her vote later. The next day the three refused to case one another and largely tried to create a majority yeet of a townie, and on the final day, they all refused to vote each other.

    Walking their posts from start of game to end of game, you can see a wolf plan in action that isnt apparent just by reading one of them at a time or by reading the game without isoing anyone. You can see quite clearly the strategy going down in waves:

    1) Finding and forcing town PRs to claim, and not being visibly connected to one another
    2) Using night actions to block or remove the most dangerous town PRs
    3) Immediately distancing or bussing when one was under pressure
    4) Unnaturally defending one another after that suspicion should have lead somewhere, because wolves were close to victory
    5) having zero progression on town reading one another after having all accused one another in a circle 1-2 rounds prior.

    The reason why wolves did those things was because, if they just got one additional yeet, they otherwise would have won the game.

    But if you assume one of them is scum, and read, then you notice that Jan's progression on Vanta made no sense, her vote didnt match her beliefs, there was no process being used to arrive at Vanta is guilty at start of day and then finding a ton of other options instead and backing off, and then unnaturally jumping back on the Vanta wagon when it became more plausible Vanta might die, in order to take credit.

    That narrative that applied to Jan solely did not ALSO apply to others on the Vanta wagon, because those players didnt play the game identically, and one of those players' body of work all game read exactly like a scum plan or strategy that could and nearly did win, while giving away telltale signs of being unnatural progressions and missing processes and giving away a scummy mindset by mistake in their posts, which contained tells.

    It is never so generic as "player did X, X is one of the 4 strategies, they must be guilty" and never trying to read their body of work as being townie at all, and if you reduce it down to that, I can't take your oversimplification as honest inquiry.

    If you reduce such a case against Jan down to "Okay, she voted for Vanta, so what? Others did too, why aren't they scummy for it?"

    That overlooks:

    1) She arrived at Vanta on no process, only TMI
    2) She moved off of Vanta when town did
    3) She moved BACK onto Vanta when town did
    4) She accused me while voting Vanta, which does not follow her own process of voting for her top suspect in the same post, which townies almost always do.

    It reduces it down to the generics, which are:

    Player A voted for Player B, and others in the game also voted for Player B.

    That's not useful for solving any game of mafia, to reduce a case against a scum down to its constituent pieces, observe each piece in isolation, remove all other possible context, and declare that I "could" make up such a case against anyone if I want to.

    No, I can't.

    I cannot generate the kind of case I made against jan and Vanta and Colby working together in Return of the Clowns against Staypositivefriend, Bur, and Michelle this game. I simply cannot do so.

    Michelle looks like she believes in her own damned beliefs, whereas Jan didn't look like she believed her own beliefs against Colby.
    Bur looked like he really had a real process for yeeting wolves this game, Colby had zero process for moving onto, and then off of, Vanta.
    Staypositivefriend looks like she also is solving the game and is radically different from her wolf self, is direct and aggressive, and Vanta Black was extremely passive aggressive.

    Michelle and Bur and SPF do not have a narrative I clould generate of working together this game that either I could believe or anyone else could.

    Whereas such a narrative could be created with the 3 wolves in that other game, A) because it was exactly what was happening and B) it was the single most likely explanation for why they were doing anything at all, all game long, from early game to late game and C) townies were not behaving identically to them and I had already town read swammerdami for his process and his beliefs which were never fake coming from him that game, despite suspecting me, I believe he believed it, Bashorian for claiming roleblocker and blocking Vanta on the night of the missing kill, Dizzy's night actions making absolutely no sense because if she were scum she had a block and could have blocked the person who claimed tracker or watcher and instead blocked me on a night I was doing nothing, and Lightfoot had been blocked on a night before she had actually claimed while a different valuable town PR was being murdered, and she was one of the few peeps that hadnt claimed yet when she got blocked, and claimed N3 cop.

    I "could generate a case against anyone I want to", if I remove all context, reduce it down to its constituent pieces, and simply quote posts at people all game and go "this is scummy" without giving context or reasons. One can have such reactions to individual posts, but those posts by themselves aren't a case. Cases involve bits like that, evidence, and a narrative for why it makes someone a wolf other than your gut.

    Some people just post gut cases. Soul reads. This post is wolfy, for reasons not stated. Okay, but unless I had the same gut reaction I can't figure out why you believe it or how reliable your gut is.

    I instead look for motives, processes, scumtells, signs of dishonesty, signs of scummy mindsets, and track whether my suspect has a wolf plan that wins the game, and if they do have such a plan, whether it happens naturally from their own solving processes or it looks like their moves match a wolf plan and NOT their purported villaging process or beliefs.

    Michelle's wolf plan this game would be to defend Phraze, and then call Schweppes creepy, and move off of Schweppes and defend Schweppes at one point and try to yeet sloth really really hard right away, and try to yeet me really really hard as well.

    Okay. That's what the plan is. Does that wolf plan match her villaging solving process and her beliefs and her reasons? It does. A lot of wolves fail right here on this step, before getting any further.

    Does it look like she believes in her own case work? How much do I believe she believes her own case work? Yes, and a lot.

    Does it look like she is trying to make exactly those yeets happen today? Absolutely. She's crushing it offensively.

    Does she exhibit wolfy TMI at any point? No, quite the opposite. She would be having a really bad game if I didnt buy that she believes it all.

    Is she passive aggressive or direct? Direct as all hell.

    Is she sharp or does she take two positions and spread her aggression to five different candidates? Sharper than a katana. She takes one position and limits her suspects to a small group or one target at a time.

    Is she posting wolfy fluff content, commentary on the thread state, repeating the same shallow reads over and over, having no depth of thoughts? Almost all her posts are related to the solve, asking solving questions, advancing her beliefs, making cases, etc.

    If and when she does post "scumtells", what is the context of those tells? When she calls Schweppes "creepy", is that to avoid calling him wolfy, or is it pretty obvious she is calling him wolfy? No, it is clear she was calling him wolfy, and for what reasons, even if she wavered on that read at one point.

    If she does post "I agree" content, is it because she is just trying to hide within thread consensus and appear agreeable and not generate sharp solving casework of her own? Which is how that tell is used in context. No, in fact, her reads often go against consensus. At no point in the game does she try to appear agreeable in a wolfy way.

    If she does call something weird, is it actually weird? Is it actually something that could be alignment indicative, noteworthy, or unusual?

    If someone posted a long string of literal gibberish, what looked like broken HTML code, and entirely unrelated nonsense on the thread, and someone said "what the hell is this weird post" is that normal to say?

    How about if someone responds to this post:
    Schweppes by far has the most wolf equity rn. Everyone who has played with him knows it (including you gira). I really don't think we are going to get burned on this flip. Sure, it won't give us too much information, but neither did the Phraze flip (though in retrospect, it actually kinda did imo).
    And that person says something like:

    'It sounds like youre advocating for a policy yeet, is the point you are making that Schweppes doesn't have much content and therefore is no big loss for town if yeeted?'

    Was that post actually odd? What was odd about it?

    Unless you already know Schweppes is going to flip wolf, there wouldn't be anything very odd about that post.

    That's the difference between "odd" meaning something actually unusual is happening, and "odd" as in passive aggression towards a townie, or distancing from a fellow wolf.

    One makes sense in context, the other is a common scumtell I can find in the isos of many wolves for wolfy reasons with wolfy contexts which allow them to be passive aggressive and indirectly attack townies and distance from partners without having to actually case them and bury them.


    Also on your townreads, for spf you cite a prior game where she played poorly as wolf, and use that to say she’s definitely out of her wolf range. Which might have been reasonable at first, but then she told you she had an off game and cited a better game, and I went and dug up quotes from that previous game and showed she was capable of faking deep reads and ‘non-chronological’ citations as a wolf. And that gets no reaction from you.
    It doesn't push the needle. That would then make one part of my analysis on staypositivefriend more null than indicative. It wouldn't show her posting a concentrated amount of scumtells in this game or being passive aggressive or indirect with her reads. It wouldn't describe a wolfy plan coming from her to win the game. It wouldn't really touch why she would want to go out and then provide evidence herself that her wolf range has more range and in structure of post could come closer to matching this game, as she would lack a lot of motive to do so if she is a wolf here. She could do so as a wolf, I've done that before. It wouldn't alter my town read on Bur, it wouldn't affect my scan on sloth, it wouldn't generate a case that spf was a wolf out of thin air, it wouldn't really alter the read on Michelle in any way. It wouldn't alter how DJ Eternal voted all game and why, or how unpaired he looks from Schweppes or Phraze.

    It doesn't touch anything in weasel's iso, nor does it touch anything in yours, doesn't explain your progression on Weasel or how you could arrive at a town read on Weasel without your day 3 stunt, doesn't explain why your poe is me and SPF, one of which I know is wrong.

    All it does is show that SPF has a larger wolf range than her previous game indicated, which is fine, but doesn't alter anything else I said about her or anyone else in the game. It shows that I had all the time to iso her here and one other game rather than more games than that, and had I done so, my towncase on her would have been altered to "I see her being more direct, more engaged, more solving here than in another recent game, she's giving off fewer scumtells, less often, and I believe she is following her process to the letter here" and the alteration would then be "she isn't out of her scum range, but she doesn't appear to be solving disingenuously."

    That doesn't move the needle a lot for me. The confidence level is slightly lower, but doesn't really make her wolfy.

    She goes from being well outside of her scum range to "it's possible by skill level, but there isn't really a case supporting it."

    It’s not clear to what extent you actually scumread Weasel and/or I as scumread in and of itself, and to what degree you arrive there by process of elimination by townreading everyone else. But if it’s the latter that seems like it would be relevant
    Weasel's iso here and the interaction with the dead wolves reads scummy all on its own, it helps that others in the game read on the level to a much greater degree: all process of elimination did was make it take longer to get around to reading Weasel's iso in the first place.

    With you, it was the keeping options open, having it both ways, being early to vote or suspect wolves but then moving away, your process for moving away, suspicion on Weasel that didn't get followed up on, but resolved inorganically with your claim on day three.

    What the POE on everyone else here does is it greatly strengthens my confidence.

    In other games, it was not at all possible to make such a towncore. Example:

    In Mafia In Space, the first several rounds were townies accusing townies, yeeting their own cop, yeeting their own cop checked vanilla townie, really bad end of day wagon shenanigans, and a townie counterclaiming the town cop.

    That led to an endgame where it was very difficult to create a towncore because most players besides CHarry (who was on an alt with a monkey avatar, cant remember the name...) looked terrible from the opening by the time I subbed in.

    I still managed to case 2 wolves doing distancing shenanigans, but I also thought it was Grant, who counterclaimed the town cop as town and yeeted the town cop and so forth.

    Because town was that bad that game, it was very hard to set aside people as definitely not wolves.

    We also had an inactive townie who got yeeted because she is usually active as town, and subbed in and went inactive while being active elsewhere. There wasnt really a way of townclearing the slot.

    I resisted because I thought it was Grant, but Grant was a misyeet anyway. Didn't matter which wrong townie we yeeted there.


    Here, the early game set up a lot of people for looking great later, and not just generically. Bur specifically, U SUX specifically, Raja specifically, even Michelle got in some good early hits on Schweppes that I buy for the reasons stated, even if she flip flopped a bit. Michelle's case against sloth I buy she believed, so even when it is wrong, it looks great for her, because I not only believed she believed it, I also effing believed it.

    People looked great from the early game this game, with specifics. With context. With villagery progressions, reasons, beliefs, case work, that all follows from a townie mindset, which was more direct and intent on solving specific players today, as opposed to spreading the aggression among 3 4 or 5 different other targets.

    Schweppes spewed U SUX slot villagery for reasons I stated, which were patently obvious before Nancy was yeeted yesterday and I went on at length about that spew. That was ironclad, wolves going down and which will always be outed wolves do not sink deeper wolves on their team. When wolves give up spew, and when villagers do good villaging efforts, it's easier to build a towncore.

    But also, if you have an iso like Weasel's containing delaying, passive aggression, poor interactions with dead wolves, and the only thing really saving his neck is a tactic that was generated by someone else in the game who is also in the POE, and the progression on Bur reads as forcing an outcome rather than natural solving, and the progression on Weasel looks like distancing and then shielding with a one move tactic, and the progression on Schweppes reads as taking credit for his eventual death but also trying to keep him alive, and the only other person in your POE (DJ Eternal) doesn't do stuff like that during the game?

    It's really picking one of only a few remaining likely worlds, and the only tough part of that call was reading enough of the game to give me enough context to make that call, and then typing it all out in full.

    Now, when that call is wrong, I spent a lot of my time tunneling the wrong persons and I let a wolf fool me, after considering whether they were a wolf. Oops. That happens whenever you make a big case on someone and it is wrong. It's part of mafia and I am used to it happening. I don't like it when it happens but it has to be allowed. As soon as it is not allowed to be wrong, I will stop playing for sure.


    I need to rest for the night, let me end my thoughts here.

    I hope that thoroughly answers your questions.

    Based on Weasel's reaction to me this round and your own reaction to me this round, I cannot say the needle has been moved for me away from suspecting you both are the exact team.

    If that is wrong, I am sorry. You need to spend the time remaining in the game solving for a wolf. Use the time wisely.
  37. Day 4#1826

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed This is the best I could do right now, talk...

    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1823)
    just pm me all your articles then. I need a reading list.
    This is the best I could do right now, talk afterward:

    This is the town guide articles index.

    Note: the entire thread is a place to construct the eventual finished product. Chapters are being written not in order, whenever I feel like it and can summon the WIM, and lengthened when I can add citations from actual games to bolster each chapter with examples.

    The guide is not close to being finished and not in presentable form if read in post order. To gather citations and inspiration for these articles I did retrospectives on past games and theyre all over the thread and that makes it harder to find what youre looking for, and spreads the articles out.

    However, the index does link to the posts which is where all the parts of each chapter would then be assembled, most currently just have links to those articles within them. Its like I am making a big project a piece at a time, and when all the pieces themselves are assembled and in a mostly finished form, thats when they would all get transferred into the chapter slots in the order I assigned at the beginning. No idea if it will ever be finished.

    I recommend the chapters:

    Chapter Draft 35

    Investigation

    Chapter Draft 36

    Prosecution

    Chapter Draft 37

    Defense

    Chapter Draft 38

    Being a Fair Juror (part 1 and part 2)

    Chapter Draft 40

    Solving Processes
    Major Solving processes
    Supplemental
    LYLO and MYLO vote pattern

    Chapter Draft 56

    All about Scumtells

    Why wolves have visible tells in the first place. (Part One)
    Scum tells are MISTAKES almost all of you make every game. (Part Two)
    Conscious decisions, semi-conscious mistakes, and involuntary slips. (Part Three)
    Example iso: CRichard
    Example iso: Garrick
    Example iso: Wesmaster160
    Example iso: Outlier
    Example iso: Guillotina
    (Note: this one contains its own article on the most common distribution of the wolfy "I agree" scumtell.)

    Indirect Pressure (Unpairing) Part 1
    Indirect Pressure (Unpairing) Part 2

    Chapter Draft 31

    Philosophies

    Part One: When you think you know the answer, you stop looking for the right answer.
    Part Two: Chaos cannot be negotiated with.

    I know there are good articles and essays which are not linked to the chapter headings on the first page, which take longer to go hunt down. So there is more good stuff in there. Its hard for me to find the stuff that is presentable, though, when it is so disorganized. (Im not good at big projects)
  38. Day 4#1824

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed If either of you flip town, then everything I...

    Quote Originally Posted by Duplicitous Weasel (#1820)
    @Askthepizzaguy another huge issue with your case is that we're not both scum.

    What happens when one of us flips town? Is it Chuck and dj?
    If either of you flip town, then everything I said all round should probably be crumpled up and thrown away, largely due to my conclusions toward the end of my case work, which is that Chuck should not be alone, due to the gambit he pulled, and you should not be alone, due to the gambit he pulled, and that because of the gambit he pulled, you should be his partner exactly, because he doesn't have any motive at all to try to townclear you on Day Three while he is a wolf, because there are other townies he could more reasonably clear by simply isoing them and saying why they are villagery.

    For him to choose you, when all that matters to a wolf is that any townie gets pocketed, means he has to be your wolf partner when he is a wolf. Not some other player.

    If you flip town then the theory you are the lone wolf is wrong, and also counterindicated before you even flipped because of Chuck's gambit which was intended to spew you town, and you look town whenever Chuck is town doing that, and if you flip town, then Chuck doesn't have a wolfy motive for pocketing / shielding you specifically.

    He could just be good, pulling a badass stunt like I did last game where I was King Bowser and I got the vig not to hit two specific townies, which pocketed both townies and then also the vig. Sure.

    But you specifically? That's a stretch. You would be his easy misyeet bait for the remainder of the game based on your work this game.

    If that's the play then he fooled me, because I literally considered it at length, and scum cased him, AND determined that it was very unlikely that he chose to do that to Town!Weasel.

    That counts as fooling me even if I guessed his alignment was wolf. Chuck should not be alone, and whenever he is not, his only partner is you. Not anyone else, not only because of the gambit, but because of how you interacted with the dead wolves, and how the dead wolves interacted with you, and how much I believe Michelle's beliefs all game, Bur's, and SPF's solve attempt.

    DJ Eternal nearly has a single post "spewed town" where he's telling everyone that its time to kill Schweppes.

    Okay, he can be a badass and hardcore yeeting all his buddies. Sure.

    And my evidence supporting that theory is what? He doesn't have a lot of lag, that's all I got.

    So upon town flip of either Weasel or Chuck, look for people who are REALLY GOOD at looking like a townie all game and read them as if they are a wolf going deep.

    Explain their wolf plan, and then show how their posts deviate from their solve, their beliefs, or their villaging process.

    When you do that, thats the wolf I did not find, because I was too tunnelled on Weasel and Chuck, and before that, Sloth.

    It happens.

    My theory can be disproved with a single flip, for both suspects I think. As soon as that happens, I really do have to crumple up all my work this round and suggest to everyone else to take a long, deep breath, and start over from scratch.

    Still endorsing Bur for town, still know Sloth is town. Still think SPF is far, far less wolfy here. Still believe Michelle believed her case work.

    Weasel you would then be looking at Michelle and DJ Eternal as your remaining POE. Because Chuck should not be alone, and he doesnt have a motive to pocket you specifically as wolf.

    Chuck should do the same. Whichever one lives, you're looking for wolf with extremely good method acting and enormous cojones in Michelle, wolf going deep and not giving a single $%#! in DJ Eternal, or someone I cannot find a case against at all, in SPF.

    It really should never be Bur. I do not believe Bur is fooling me this game specifically. It's too good, thats why there is like 7 pages of reasons he is town.

    None of that should be considered my opinion until one of you or Chuck is proven to be town by flip. But when either of you are town, you know I am wrong, and therefore those are my recommendations on where to start.
  39. Day 4#1822

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Regarding the bolded question: I need specifics....

    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Eternal (#1812)
    Do you mind linking me to your article?

    Also, perhaps just letting pizza self-resolve is the best idea rn.

    ##Vote Duplicitous Weasel
    Regarding the bolded question: I need specifics. I can walk you though everything I believe about the game of mafia because like 80 percent of it is already written in my hoarder's house of a thread over there.

    I just need to know what topics to link to you and summarize. Ask me anything, list as many topics as you wish, bundle those questions together, and I will spoiler my response and tag you with it.

    I expect to be interacted with a bit, so please be advised I will likely answer questions in batches and delays can occur.

    I will try to space things out.
  40. Day 4#1813

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed As I mentioned in my opening post this game, how...

    As I mentioned in my opening post this game, how I find wolves is I find townies, narrow down the universes for where the wolves could be, then I brute force each universe by reading each player in turn as "known wolf" and seeing if I can narratively explain their plan to win the game for each person in turn.

    Doing so means I will absolutely have correctly identified what the plan was for that wolf, whenever that player is a wolf. It is a form of reverse engineering, which you can do when you brute force all possible worlds.

    As long as you don't overlook a universe you will have described the wolf team's plan, period.

    As long as you have read the remaining wolves and said out loud to yourself what their plan is to win the game, that means you will have actually looked at and considered the correct answer, period. Because you didn't confirmation bias yourself, or only examine one possibility. You examined all the possibilities and reasonably discarded answers you thought were most likely to be wrong.

    This maximizes the utility of my time expenditure during the game and forces me to read deep wolves doing deep wolf $%#! and tell myself that this wins for wolves because this is what theyre doing and why it wins. It's hard to miss wolves when you looked at them and described their entire plan to win the game, start to finish.

    If you put who the wolves are in your brain and follow their plan from start to finish AND it fools you, you can say you deserved to be fooled, like when AVecna fooled me a couple games ago, and I found his buddies but townlocked him hard.

    Or when Tau fooled me in the MTGS game in 2017, because it looked identical to being a townie.

    Or when Ezra fooled me in the memes game, because Ezra enacted zero moves all game long while I was alive that win for wolves, advance their strategy, force PRs to out themselves, or even look townie at all. Ezra did nothing, and I don't find wolves that do nothing to win. Like Plankton did nothing to win the last game, because he was inactive for literal months, and the game ended when he was the last wolf not murdering anyone. I never guessed him, and during play, I suggested if he were a wolf, yeeting elsewhere would prove it. I didn't think it actually would, because I was as sure as could be he was town and someone else was a wolf, but he wasn't town and that process still won because I considered that possibility as one of the universes remaining and enacted a plan that won even against that universe while chasing my then current suspects.

    In other words, beating wolves in both universes with the same vote and accusation.

    That's how I town, I consider all the worlds, narrow them down, and defeat the most likely wolves in the remaining worlds.

    It's what I always do. It usually works because it is so comprehensive and it FORCES you to read wolfy posts as wolfy, because its one of the universes.

    You have to consider it.

    There are no blind spots when you force every player to be townie and wolf in your brain and read them all one by one.

    Removing those blind spots is the biggest improvement I made to my game when I began playing under the Waluigi alt. Still took me a bit to perfect it. Now I am solid with that process.
  41. Day 4#1811

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Once you do flip me everything I said in previous...

    Once you do flip me everything I said in previous post is irrelevant, just read my case work.

    That's only to move your needle on my alignment while I am alive, while I am dead, read my case work.
  42. Day 4#1810

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Oh, I actually had a potentially needle-moving...

    Oh, I actually had a potentially needle-moving thought in my own defense during Day today.

    Go open that town games archive, and click the summary section for each game. It is the spoiler under the header for each game, going as far back as Color Wheel, X Com, Chess mafia, etc. The 2017 stuff.

    Note what my summary section for each game says about those games and what successfully found wolves that game.

    I am using exactly those tells and methods to find the wolves this game.

    Which I would if I were a wolf, as well. But the thing I can't do as a wolf is make my targets do the behavior I find wolfy.

    That's not something I had control over. So town me absolutely would find all of those players scummy even if I were a wolf here, and I would play into it.

    But, town me is here in this game, and town me is doing exactly what he always does to find wolves, which is a scientific process that literally predicts wolves will do these kinds of behaviors.

    Because wolves do these behaviors in almost every game I have played for five years straight. That is how predictive they are.

    That's why I can make a huge section on scumtells in 2021 and have it apply to almost everything SPF posted in her game as mafia last month in 2022.

    Its because those scumtells are what scums do every game. Because scums do not know they are giving up that information, because they havent read my guide, and don't know those are tells. Even though I have said those are tells for years, because I play with a new group almost every game.

    When I say wolves will do X in 2017 and it will reveal to be a wolf a lot of the time, and it works again in 2018 or 2019 or 2020 or 2021 or 2022, and it is still working, its because that is $%#! wolfy brains come up with to win a game over hundreds of games and dozens of forums and thousands of personalities in unique setups and cultures which have differing ideas as to what is scummy and what is townie.

    The stuff that finds wolves in all of those years, games, setups, and forums is the stuff I look for as a townie to find wolves every game, and all of it is described in my guide which I began writing summer of last year.

    So, I can prove that

    A) the $%#! finds wolves like a motherfugger
    B) I use this $%#! to find wolves every single game, stuff I said find wolves BEFORE A GAME EVER RANDS OR I KNOW WHO IS IN IT
    C) I am following those same processes to accuse wolves here.

    I can prove all of that.

    If you can't show it, you don't know it.

    I know my methods find wolves because they provably do.
  43. Day 4#1809

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed I will vote to majority yeet Chuck or Weasel...

    I will vote to majority yeet Chuck or Weasel only.

    No one else, not even to self preserve. That is an ironclad guarantee. I don't care if you call it game throwing, it will not move me to tears if you do.
  44. Day 4#1808

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Bur sloth staypositivefriend Michelle DJ Eternal...

    @Bur @sloth @staypositivefriend @Michelle @DJ Eternal

    Upon my flip, I am asking you one more time to read my case work and consider it as plausible tomorrow Day phase.

    You're the jury, you decide. Prosecution rests.
  45. Day 4#1807

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed If you let the round continue I will find the...

    If you let the round continue I will find the time to fully towncase DJ Eternal.

    I have nothing left on my agenda to do this game. I have completed my processes fully on everyone else.

    The remaining time is a luxury I rarely get to experience because I am usually not alive long enough to fully complete my processes on everyone, or enough people that the game is locked when my POE flips, like now.

    If you want more time tonight and tomorrow to play the game, and thats how these rounds work, AND you will actually give my case work the time of day when you flip me, then it is finally okay to flip me.

    I still want to towncase DJ but I think once Chuck or Weasel flips tomorrow it is unlikely people will come to the conclusion that DJ is partners with either of the two dead wolves or Chuck or Weasel anyway, so you will finally be on the same page as me.

    Any further questions ping me.
  46. Day 4#1806

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed sub in game where I burned out by the final day....

    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1804)
    Please link when you post next time your last recent 2 town games you have (MU or Syndicate if possible, because on your main account your games are too old and i think you only played on alts.

    sub in game where I burned out by the final day.

    https://www.giraffeboards.com/forumdisplay.php?f=31

    I found or voted 4 of the 6 wolves, 1 died before I subbed in, the other was inactive and I don't hunt inactive players when I have suspects so I never found Plankton. each day and night is its own thread.

    Previous town games besides that can be found in my archive of games in my player's guide, post 4, under Town games archive.

    https://www.giraffeboards.com/showpo...96&postcount=4

    I would rather you flip me and spend the entire overnight reading just my case work on Chuck and Weasel and my case work on all other town reads.

    Don't bother analyzing my previous games as it will take you too long and it is irrelevant as I can absolutely fool anyone here if I were a wolf.

    You will gain no insight about me by meta diving me, and if you read my wolf games you will vote me anyway.

    If you pull the trigger on me with your vote today, that is a promissory note that you will read everything I said this round, line by line, word for word, AND post 1805.

    Do it not, and I will be very grumpy with you.
  47. Day 4#1805

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
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    Completed Miniature Lego Hogwarts Castle Compare to...

    Miniature Lego Hogwarts Castle

    Compare to larger Hogwarts Castle which I spent a lot more time on this game than you have for any case work you've done this year. Or show me after the game because I will shake your hand because I am impressed.



    See, from Pizza's perspective, sloth and pizza are already solved for town. That makes my perspective on the game better than yours whenever you have pizza as a suspect.

    So, once you have my flip, you can go back and follow this train of thought very well.

    1) For an enormous amount of reasons I went over, Bur is town. He is town because, in the shortest possible summary there is, he has a process he follows that he believes wins the game of mafia for town, and all his suspicions, town reads, case work, and votes follow logically from 1 post to the other for the entirety of play. In other words, he believes in his process, he believes in his conclusions, and he tries to make those conclusions affect the game today, directly. This is incredibly difficult to mimic for wolves, because almost no one bothers to method act that well. He also had correct suspicion on Schweppes and Phraze and his case work on Chuck is devastating and you can go read that if you cannot read mine. And you can read Raja's suspicion on Chuck if you can't read mine.

    Bur is town no matter who is mafia. That's how strong that read is.

    2) Staypositivefriend is town because she is not giving off 1/100th the amount of scumtells this game that she did in her previous game as a wolf, and is far more interested in solving a mystery. period.

    SPF is town no matter who is mafia. Just as strong as Bur.

    3) Sloth is town because the game host told me so and I determined the setup is unlikely to contain a godfather.

    Sloth is town no matter who is mafia.

    4) Michelle is town because of how she interacted with Schweppes and how even after voting for Schweppes how she reacted to Phraze and Schweppes looked bad, and she absolutely (I believe) believed all her bad cases on townies all game. It would take a cop check proving she is town to remove suspicion from her because she will be alive in final 6 with 2 wolves and she will either vote with them, or be yeeted by them, because of how the game is going.

    I believe it, but if she keeps guessing wrong, you will not. Thus the scan.


    5) While isoing Weasel with the dead scums, I determined that DJ Eternal is not Weasel's partner, nor is he partners with Phraze or Schweppes, mainly because Chuck obviously is partners with both for the reasons I gave in my gigantic case against Chuck. So if there are 2 wolves, DJ is not one of those two to a high degree of confidence. If there is 1 wolf, I still don't think it is DJ eternal because of how Weasel and Chuck played the game.

    So I can't fit DJ into the wolf team as solo, or as partner of either of the 2 other suspects I have.

    6) Weasel or Chuck should not be alone as wolves, for reasons I went over that implicate both of them as scum AND that Chuck made a play specifically designed to keep Weasel alive, a motive he cannot have when Weasel is town. That means tomorrow is final 6 and MYLO. You will lose the game whenever my towncore is correct and you do not listen to me.

    7) It is easy to find Weasel and Chuck when you had the towncore I had, and there were 3 suspects left, and one of them looks not paired with any of the other 2 suspects or the other 2 dead wolves.

    It's trivial for me to solve out, but because I have to convince you Chuck is deep wolfing and Weasel is a bad wolf, that takes a lego hogwart's castle, which most of you will not read. And I understand why. You're busy solving the game, don't have my alignment yet, and may not be able to read deep wolves when they are deep wolfing. I can because they've burned me good and I learned from the best and I can deep wolf with the best of them and I can see through cheap chicanery like fake claiming a guilty on your buddy because it's $%#! I would do to launch myself clear of suspicion.

    it's a low budget tactic for me, it might appear expensive to others, but it doesnt cut any $%#! with me.

    8) I follow Newcomb's Box Method and refer to it in my town and mafia player's guide.

    Basically, when I am correct on my town core, it doesn't matter what the wolf team's plan is, as long as I convince every townie that every other townie is a townie.

    A) I will never fall for the wolf plan, because I have already determined that enough others are town, town so much that it does not matter who else flips scum. Those town reads are solid, as opposed to relying on X or Y flipping a certain alignment. It doesn't matter what other people flip, it wouldn't change my town reads on my townies. Those are the strongest reads there are in the game of mafia, which is why nothing wolves do or no matter how anyone else flips will alter those reads.

    B) If the wolves' goal is to not look paired and they do something to not look paired, but I have a solid towncore I believe in, and I am reading their posts looking for their plan to win the game, then it just looks like they did something to not look paired. If I determine the wolves must be in this pile of three names, and I read all their posts looking for signs of going deep or fooling town, I walk their footsteps and can explain every single part of their plan and why it wins for wolves.

    If the wolves are contained within A B and C, I find one townie in there and the game ends, and any possible plan they have which could win the game becomes really apparent because of the limited number of universes left.

    A- Weasel
    B- Chuck
    C- DJ Eternal,
    who doesn't look paired with Weasel, or Chuck, or Phraze, or Schweppes.

    And

    A- Weasel wouldn't have reacted as he did to Chuck's gambit if he were solo

    And

    B- Chuck has no motive to do what he did with Weasel if he were solo

    means

    A and B are wolves.

    It's deductive reasoning.

    D Raja (last night) is not a wolf because of claim
    E SPF is not a wolf by analysis
    F Michelle is not a wolf by analysis
    G Bur is not a wolf by analysis
    H sloth is not a wolf by scan
    I Pizzaguy am not a wolf

    and I determined that C is highly unlikely to be a wolf because he's not partnered with all the wolves on analysis.

    That means wolves are contained within A B and C, and C does not fit at all, and A and B both do not make any sense at all by themselves due to the gambit on Day 3.

    Thus, the setup is me cop, town doctor, both variants thereof, a bull$%#! vanilla town medium, vanilla townies, and 4 wolves, one of whom probably has a PR.

    And the guilty parties are as stated.

    End of mini hogwarts.


  48. Day 4#1803

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
    Replies
    2,427
    Views
    52,124

    Completed Your lag is showing. Go read what I said to sloth...

    Quote Originally Posted by Michelle (#1801)
    You said you wanted to check my alignament because you are not sure about my alignament.
    Why do you need the vote of a player you don't trust enough?
    Your lag is showing. Go read what I said to sloth in the spoiler here about how I need to prove it to others besides myself.

    Reposted here for your convenience to aid your reading comprehension and speed.
    The main reason I chose Michelle was because I submitted the action during the point in my process where I already had my scan result of alignment town for you, was still buying Raja being town for both the claim reason and his body of work to that point, had fully completed my process on Bur which led me to town read him, and had already thoroughly gone over Michelle during Day Three which led me to believe she was town.

    However, Michelle did make arguments in favor of the dead wolves at times, just as you did, just as Chuck did.

    You also made a case against Michelle which had points I felt were strong enough to keep Michelle as a possibility, when you finally laid out a major case against her, there was something that read akin to a process error early on. I mentioned it in my original analysis of Michelle on Day Three, back when she was still voting for me and accusing me, and I arrived and revealed all my process and analysis on Michelle.

    The parts which looked negative on Michelle were the bits of your case, and her potentially trying to protect the yeeted scums.

    The positives were quite a number of things, from her sharpness to her WIM to her questioning of Schweppes and calling him creepy, among others I went over.

    But if someone is a townie and Michelle is a townie and they only look for negatives in Michelle, it is entirely possible they can conclude Michelle has to go next.

    While I am sitting in an endgame with a bunch of townies, the correct way to solve that endgame is to find more townies that are correct.

    If you find one scum by scan, and there are two scums remaining, that loses the game a large amount of the time.

    But if there's me, you, spf, bur, all town, and I think Michelle is town, mechanically proving Michelle is town locks the game in terms of the POE, even if it isn't mechanically locked, because there are three names, and three yeets remaining.

    I hadn't done fully completed isos on Weasel or DJ Eternal and night was almost over. I had submitted the scan after looking at Chuck and Bur, predicting Chuck would go over.

    But I was like 60 percent done with isoing Weasel with the two dead scums when day started. Once I was done, it was pretty clear who my two suspects were today, and too late to alter the scan result, not that I would have wanted to change the target of the scan, just the prediction for who dies. And even so, only slightly.

    Both should flip wolf, Michelle should just be town. And I will be too dead to reveal the result of said scan regardless.
    Isn't this showing the fact you know I am villager?
    Also yes, you caught me. Congrats.
  49. Day 4#1802

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
    Replies
    2,427
    Views
    52,124

    Completed So, after yeeting me, and then sloth dying...

    So, after yeeting me, and then sloth dying tonight, I am going to ask everyone I pinged to go re-read my case work against Weasel and Chuck, line by line.

    Then, I want you to read the following miniature Lego Hogwarts castle post I am typing. Do not maj before I am done typing it.
  50. Day 4#1800

    Thread: Covenant of Darkness

    by Askthepizzaguy
    Replies
    2,427
    Views
    52,124

    Completed The more you write, the more can be nitpicked. ...

    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#1773)
    i think that pizza’s posts are easy to “take down” and point flaws in, due to the sheer amount of words that he writes per post, and i’m not sold that his reasoning having flaws or seeming nitpicky is inherently alignment indicative behavior.
    The more you write, the more can be nitpicked.

    Unfortunately to build Lego Hogwarts you need a lot of pieces. If someone doesn't like the color of pieces 213, 1,042, and 20,138, then there's not much I can do about it.

    This is how I town, because this is how I think. I use more words than would be useful for communication.

    I point out all the pieces in the puzzle which I think completes the picture, which ends up being more than most people can follow/understand and most certainly leaves a $%#!load of room for disagreement.

    Truth is not as popular as something you can fabricate.

    For example, weigh everything I did all game against Chuck saying "I am cop, Weasel is wolf, lets get him boys".

    And then retracting and saying his reaction is good.

    100 percent of townies will have read that interaction, and fully understood it.

    In 2 posts and a few sentences Chuck achieves what 10,000 words trying to counter it cannot. And in those 10,000 words, people will disagree with half of them.

    Brevity is not how my mind words, and I cannot summarize Lego hogwart's in fewer pieces. Some others have that ability.

    All I can do is find scums and find townies, that's what I am good at.
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