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  1. #11676

    Thread: Word Association

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    11,678
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    206,649

    Natural

  2. Day 4#4421

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread Follow your heart chem

    Follow your heart chem
  3. Day 4#4420

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread Then it's on me and not on you? idk I said...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#4418)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#4417)
    Dels if you don't want to hammer I can unvote then hammer
    That wouldn't be any different?
    Then it's on me and not on you? idk

    I said what I wanted to so I'm kind of ready to either pop bottles or get out
  4. #11669

    Thread: Word Association

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    11,678
    Views
    206,649

    tackle

  5. Day 4#4417

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread Dels if you don't want to hammer I can unvote...

    Dels if you don't want to hammer I can unvote then hammer
  6. Day 4#4416

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread Dunno what you're apologizing to me for. I'm the...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#4412)
    Okay, I've looked at the rabbit case

    Can't really bring myself to have any thoughts about it, sorry. If the game goes on we will discuss it (whoever lives) but I'm just mentally checked out now.

    Think the game will end on this vote. Hope it does. Sorry again Mill Crab but we will hopefully be celebrating shortly

    I won't vote just yet but if/when anyone else wants to, I can. Or can wait for Manti. I won't be doing any more work.
    Dunno what you're apologizing to me for. I'm the one who made the game go an extra 16+ hours and tilted off half the remaining players.
  7. Day 4#4408

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread LolMillCrab? Chemist1422

    LolMillCrab?

    ##Vote Chemist1422
  8. Day 4#4407

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread Here are the cases if I'm wrong. As much as I...

    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#4406)
    The case on Rabbit


    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#272)
    current radar:

    ampharos + paratroopa
    Starts sussing amy and para after they come in.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#309)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#302)
    that's an AWFUL post by para and I ask that everyone review it.
    my 2 cents is that

    i was already tunneling chem as villager so it strikes me as possibly believable but para seeming to tunnel chem as villager feels a bit off? i actually dunno how he handles early d1s though

    but para was already on my radar for other reasons and i do think its not a great look to go "dw about it ur town" to the post he responded to
    Agrees with Para since they were both tunneling chem v but thinks Para was slightly off

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#369)
    maybe its just 2-3 in chemist/ftf/112
    But Para and Amy are both gone.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#373)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    Early distance vote after Zack voices his nebulous read

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#375)
    amy's density of game-related reads-related thoughts seems markedly lower than i expected (my point of comparison being the first rand of color wheel where we were villagers together)

    in other words, i wolfread the fluff to content ratio and find none of the content compelling
    Makes a content read on Amy sheeping Zack

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#384)
    amy stood her ground against me when our reads opposed on mendel/duk3 in the first rand of color wheel in a way that made me easily townread her for having her own worldview and being somewhat stubborn about it

    here, there's nothing she's sticking her neck out for similarly yet; im not even sure why she eased up off of her initial pings from chemist

    and it's not like it was late into d1 in color wheel, it was within the first 8 hours of the day or something

    the main caveat being a lot more happened in that game by this point, and most every slot was more engaged in making reads than in this game
    Again following up with what would be a fairly brutal comparison between her town game and this wolf game.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#394)
    112 how do you feel about ampharos right now
    Probing about Amy

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#423)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#338)
    Chemist still fine. I do think it's villagery that he was getting a bit skeeved by all the town reads.

    Amy is generally agreeable and i'm nodding along to her posts.

    112 way off from me on their ran read but I don't think it's wolfy, just wrong if that makes sense?

    Flush I've already forgotten his posts. Para fine, not really seeing what 112 is seeing there but I'm also not super paying attention. I feel like I should have thoughts about Manti but I don't oh well that's future Mill's problem.
    @Mill Crab

    can you actually specifically point out what you nodded along to w.r.t amy's content?
    Calls me out to expand my Amy thought. Possibly looking for someone to push for giving his partner an incorrect read?

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#434)
    @Ampharos when you have time could you outline why you townread 112
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#465)
    @Ampharos would also like you to articulate your townread on dels at some point

    sorry for all the mentions
    Pinging Amy to get back in the thread and provide some followup content.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#488)
    so when i think about the 112 meta comparison to g6 (where she was a villager; i didnt read much, just skimmed iso) and wc1 (where she was a wolf)

    i think her play fits closer to the aggression and unreserved wolfreading i saw in g1. she was more involved there, and had more thoughts overall, but the wolfreads felt similar. snappy, strong, confident. also response to pressure here so far has been pretty lighthearted and the random naked vote and unvote of ftf felt like it came from a wishy washy town mindset (except when im wanting to wolfread her, i remind myself she could just be specifically trying to project a deeper worldview with those kinds of naked votes/unvotes, and she was actually called out on naked votes/unvotes in wc1. but she also did them in g6, i think.)

    so 112 is also gun to head town right now for me. and psycho claiming a mindmeld with them makes me want to shove ranmilia into lynch contention d1.




    another random thought i wanted to air out

    when soab wolfread both 112 and amy and found the amy one harder to articulate, it reminded me of a phenomenon where i think the early wolfreads people have that are harder to articulate tend to be more accurate than the ones that you can case well. the ones you can case well already fit into a mold of existing wolf that youve cased before and can easily pull out, which i think makes them easier to confbias on some level. the ones that are harder to articulate, on the other hand, can't be confbias that way, so they're more likely to be hits. common caveats here being certain types of wolfy town players who you're playing with for the first time, e.g., every single time i see players first play with garden gnome they wolfread her as villager no matter what, or for another example, adrian's d1 towngame

    anyone else have this particular experience?
    Theorizes on why Zack's read is correct, and would have to TMI'ing Amy wolf

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#582)
    nope just isoed mc again and mc and ranmilia are probably not great places to go XD

    ##Vote Ampharos
    Comes back to Amy after tinfoiling myself and Ran for a bit

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#592)
    112

    iaafr
    psycho666soldier
    dels
    paratroopa
    slimy soab

    chemist1422
    ftflush
    catgirlmaple
    waywardson
    visorslash

    mill crab
    ranmilia
    ampharos
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#596)
    i was actually thinking im probably just wrong on amy just now but *shrug*

    wouldnt oppose wws wagon at this point, he's probably a wolf in the world where you and amy are both villagers
    Comes back around to thinking Amy town

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#605)
    112
    ampharos

    psycho666soldier
    dels
    paratroopa
    slimy soab

    iaafr
    chemist1422
    ftflush
    catgirlmaple
    visorslash

    mill crab
    waywardson
    ranmilia
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#626)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#621)
    TOWN AF
    Dels

    PRETTY TOWNY
    Chemist
    iaafr
    112

    LEAN TOWN
    Slimy
    Flush
    Paratroopa
    Mill Crab

    WHO TF KNOWS
    CatgirlMaple
    Visor

    LEAN SCUM
    Ranmilia
    WaywardSon

    PROBABLY SCUM
    Ampharos


    That feels about right. I'll try to articulate tomorrow between classes.
    wonder if my theory that the bottom of the list usually ends up town but the tier above it has more scum holds here

    amy is just too perfect of a scumcase

    scum hardly ever make themselves into perfect scumcases d1

    ergo, amy must be town

    it's just basic logic
    Now thinks that the case on Amy makes too much sense and has to be town.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#695)
    ##Vote Paratroopa

    the center of a Nexus of Evil
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#696)
    ##Vote Ampharos

    but actually
    Would be a couple of quick distancing votes here.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#699)
    so ranmilias latest bout of posting has opened up some random ranmilia plus 112 suspicions

    but also makes me actually rethink paratroopa

    if we go by underwhelming, para/Amy/wws kinda work

    if we go by strangely overconfident, 112/ranmilia fit that bill most

    d u n n o
    Puts the underwhelming world out there but also thinks the overconfident world is possible.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#713)
    I'm probably going to end up voting wws over Amy because Amy's posts actually give me more pause for a couple reasons. they felt more flowy, thread-present, and "yeah but you should consider x". also, as I mentioned before, she hasn't explained a single read, which I usually come around to thinking is a v trait.
    Signalling to vote WWS

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#756)
    v/w/w/w
    This is Amy/WWS/Para/112, TMI'ing Para wolf but calling Amy town

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#800)
    ##Vote WaywardSon
    Moves to WWS

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#818)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#816)
    it's a fine wagon i guess but it's a LAME one
    not calling this wolfy but

    lol @ u having this opinion while not being caught up or having any wolfreads
    Bit of a harsh dig at Amy

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#849)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#846)

    Can't really respond to the rest of this post since it's all wifom if I do, but don't worry about sounding hostile, it's mafia and I can take it
    i, for one, would not mind seeing the self-meta that you have an impulse to talk about (im assuming this is what you mean by WIFOM)
    Inviting Para to give some WIFOM talk

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#875)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    Sits off of Para and WWS on AMy

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#940)
    just briefly isoed amy's town game in color wheel (first rand)

    engagement level difference is night and day. but she had a whole team there who seemed active and apparently more time to play.

    but still idk. can't help but be severely unimpressed here. also not appreciative of the rather uncooperative attitude, and i struggle to think of leaving her alive as a good thing for the gamestate. think im just gonna stay here for the day.

    not gonna wifom myself out of it like para's apparently doing. except when i probably do, in a couple hours.
    Calls amy a wolf and says he's gonna stay there

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#958)
    thats not level 5 billion though

    its like level 2

    flail and try to come off as a flailing villager rather than a flailing wolf
    I talked about this D2 but this would be telling me off with TMI that Amy was going for the level 2 play

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1027)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1026)
    My gut says we're gonna miss today so I'm feeling out which slots I'd care the least about missing on

    Do any of yall actually feel ya have a grasp on the game? Cause without reading it don't look it
    I think there's always a wolf between Amy and 112, possibly both
    Thinks Amy could be a wolf

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1048)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1044)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#958)
    thats not level 5 billion though

    its like level 2

    flail and try to come off as a flailing villager rather than a flailing wolf
    Some exaggeration on my part because it really bugs me when someone says why they think a certain post isn't wolfy and someone else replies "but wifom" or something similar.
    I get your point, but the instance you were replying to was ironically a valid iteration of that stance, imo
    Again with what would be a TMI take

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1117)
    mmm skimmed amy's iso again

    lean v if i go in with a fresh mind

    and thats where i ended up last night before sleeping too

    para/dels not scumreading her is making sense to me

    probably just wont end up on amy
    But thinks she's a villager again and goes to WWS

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1130)
    ##Vote WaywardSon
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1145)
    no right now after reviewing isos i still find wws wolfier than ampharos
    Reiterating that WWS has the wolfier ISO

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1151)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1146)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1143)
    eh i think wolves tend to not quite be that sloppy out of obligation to teammates

    basically im parroting para's sentiments from around when it occurred now which i disagreed with at the time but it makes sense
    i'm surprised you both apparently think so little of ampharos as a villager that you think their bad wolfy posts are somehow too bad to be wolfy
    well since you put it that way

    i don't really think that highly of ampharos as a villager, esp day 1, considering she entered color wheel with literally all wrong reads, voted my most confident v read mendel, wolfread jalandh, who was pushing duk3 correctly with me, and then called our push bad

    but yeah its different here. it's hard to evaluate based on meta because of the apparent lack of time. i havent tried to meta a wolfgame. she did well in some light game recently so i don't think she'd suck that much as wolf here? idk. it's complicated
    Tries to cover for Amy's game by talking about a bad village game she had.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1194)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#822)
    oh right my mentions

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#434)
    @Ampharos when you have time could you outline why you townread 112
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#465)
    @Ampharos would also like you to articulate your townread on dels at some point

    sorry for all the mentions
    not really and not really

    thanks for coming to my ted talk
    and i guess amy did this which annoyed me
    Would be some pretty harsh shutdown of a partner here. :/

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1199)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1228)
    ##Vote WaywardSon
    Puts Amy ahead of WWS 5/4 13 minutes out, but switches to WWS at T-minus 3 minutes to tie up the wagons.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1251)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1250)
    why is this game so frozen
    this games bizarre
    Would be a bit weird to be talking to your partner like this right before the flip, but I guess it'd be the situation where all 3 wolves tried to save Amy it's maybe gonna work out

    End of D1 Would have spent a lot of time TMI'ing Amy as a wolf and then ending up w/w/w on the counterwagon with a rand that just went poorly.

    Day 2
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1322)
    is it time for Dels to defend para more
    Counting on Dels to defend Para more so he doesn't have to

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1346)
    if wws is a wolf, 112 almost certainly isnt and it's probably para or ran

    I think

    idk conclusions might change after doing some casing
    Setting up WWS/Para as possibly w/w which would clear him after WWS flips v

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1375)
    I mean para did kind of defend the wolf and vote the counterwagon, as did I, so...
    Sussing Para

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1485)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#420)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#417)
    idk maybe i should've just said what i don't like about the whole post.

    i think if they were serious about the dels push, they'd be pushing harder instead of sandwiching the dels read in between wishy-washy nothing paragraphs.

    if you're serious about making a push, you're going to persuade and write things with a focus entirely on the subject you're wolf-reading, not write something sorta scathing and then wrap it up by talking about light town-reads.

    i guess what i really didn't like about the post is it's just structured in a way that seems to come from a wolf mindset:

    1. justify RVS votes with unfalsiable stuff people are just going to accept because there's nothing else to do with it
    2. list a bunch of stuff scumread x has done in the game without adding commentary and hoping that simply describing their actions is enough
    3. call to arms! 'town, do /this/' - easy way to look helpful, easy way to seem interested in setting up a game-plan or town strategy, just easy.

    it's just verbatim how i'd write a post when i'm scum. (of course i'm not ram.) i know the literal words are there to say they're pushing dels, but i don't see conviction behind the read.
    Okay just to add what I was thinking onto this - I read 112's accusation of 'lack of commitment' as "is more concerned with appearing town rather than actually holistically being town", not "isn't committed to pushing Dels"
    eh
    Some weak shade on Para?

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1506)
    I almost saved Amy, but I had faith in BATMAN
    Invoking BATMAN's #modboterror for why it was fine that he tied up the wagon opposite Amy

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1619)
    ok seriously exiting thread until at least 6 hours from now

    slimy soab
    ftflush
    mill crab
    waywardson

    dels
    paratroopa

    chemist1422
    catgirlmaple

    psycho666soldier

    iaafr
    112
    ranmilia
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1832)
    what I'm pretty sure that's like the 4th time paratroopas expressed that read
    Calling out Para that he made the same Ran entrance read and needs to do something else

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1924)
    inb4 its $#@!ing chemist/paratroopa
    Just wanna say kudos if this is the world for coming to it first I think?

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1955)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1953)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#1951)
    ##Vote Psycho666Soldier

    his is the vote on me I don't like, so I'm just going to vote here for now.

    he called my voting opportunistic without referencing any individual vote, but his vote on me could very easily be interpreted as opportunism.
    ##Vote Dels
    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Quick distance vote on Para when there was a bunch of joke votes flying around.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1971)
    mmmm starting to buy the para case a bit

    maybe 112/para/ampharos was the nexus of evil after all
    Buying the Para case

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2001)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#547)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#545)
    This....

    ...is an entrance.
    If this is how wolf-visor chooses to enter a game I'm going to be like

    intensely confused
    the more i think about it the more TMI-y para's game feels tbh

    it feels like he gets to town too easily and has too little paranoia most of the time

    this post im quoting is like

    a pretty strong townread for a one post / entrance townread
    Calling out Para for TMI

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2006)
    112 + paratroopa

    pop the champagne we have found the tin cows' hideout and we're gonna skin their tin hides

    sorry for the tunnel ranmilia i always tunnel at least one obvious villager a game
    On the Para wolf train

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2007)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2004)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2003)
    pretty interesting case tbh i like it a lot
    yeah in all my other town games i just write "buh I dunno" on all the players I'm iffy on
    not sure what you're referring to exactly right now, but i meant manti's observations of your reads list made for an interesting case why its wolfy
    Sheeps Manti's push onto Para which would be a bizarre distancing ploy.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2179)
    oh yeah that last question reminds me of a question I forgot to ask para (though he said he has no time today)

    @Paratroopa experience level with manti and general outline of how you think to read him?
    Pushing Para to explain the Manti wolf read when his play was different from Frostpunk.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2220)
    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Decides to run the Para cw up a bit.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2253)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2252)
    112 has 5 votes now? what just happened?

    definitely have to go, will move later if needed
    we annoyed zack enough by voting para that he finally placed his vote and then i started to feel bad for how para votes made you feel so i switched

    i originally intended to switch much closer to EOD
    But hops back to 112

    End of D2 Fairly suspicious of Para at multiple points and sheeps a Manti read that most everyone else called questionable. But still ended on 112. Would have to be setting up some decent distancing here so rabbit looks better heading into the late game.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2315)
    would advise shooting inside chemist para

    will towncase manti when I wake up again later
    Starts on Para as a shot option

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2354)
    one random part of my case

    even as I suspected manti and 112 I got into a rhythm where I felt like I kinda automatically started working with them to refine reads when we were both in the thread

    never any such feeling with para
    Continues to shade Para

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2386)
    just pop para and cuddle chem for the d3 win

    is where my heart's at
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2411)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1816)
    Definitely town:

    Dels - Dels's perspective has seemed like town Dels pretty much the entire game and I've barely seen anything that would make me believe otherwise so I'm ready to lock clear this one.

    Psycho - Conversation flow felt extremely natural last night, went onto Amy, don't really have any doubts here.

    Mill Crab - Was on Amy, I know he had some really good town-perspective stuff that I'm forgetting right now, seems extremely unlikely to be wolf.

    Definitely town but uhhh?:

    Zack - Zack should like, basically never be a wolf here, but I can't help be like WEEEOO WEEEOO for me that he didn't die last night and that Visor is exactly the kind of kill he would have to make if he was a wolf. This isn't like GH in finals though 'cause GH was leading us off a damn cliff and Zack has been a beacon of sanity this game and dunked a wolf. Zack/Amy is such an unlikely w/w pairing that it's basically $#@!ing stupid to consider, like Zack had so many opportunities to NOT get Amy lynched especially after I found a reason to read Amy town

    Seems town:

    Flush - I hate making reads based on how mad someone gets but Flush has attacked d2 with a furor that I think pretty much always comes from town? Really agree with his EOD analysis. Not suspicious of his 112 wolfread anymore. Just looks way better today.

    ???

    WWS - I think I probably have to take the L on this one, I came to the same conclusion that Flush did on this that them being w/w doesn't really pass muster - they cross-voted each other instead of trying to find some other counterwagon (manti? flush? 112? me?) and there was just really no need for them to do that. The fact that they re-entered the thread almost simultaneously is like, too comical to be wolf partners. In a vacuum I don't really like WWS's posts but this world seems dumb.

    Chemist - It's really hard for me to see the wolf motivation in how he played last night's eod. The Dels vote followed by the unvote is really $#@!in' weird but he had ample opportunity to save Amy at pretty much any point and didn't. COULD have just been frozen but I don't think there's really any reason to be when not voting almost looks worse.

    iaafr - The only reason I even have iaafr this low is because it feels like there should be at least one wolf between 112/iaafr, the WWS wagon being clean feels like a strict unlikelihood unless WWS was w, which, again, I don't think really makes any sense. I just don't think it's iaafr, though, his game flow has been pretty much exactly what I expected to see from him and I think the way he moves around his suspicions would be really hard to fake as wolf. He also top posted.

    Ranmilia - POE I guess. It's not impossible for me to see the wolfy agenda in Ran's posts but I sort of doubt it.

    Kinda just has to be these two unless I $#@!ed up somewhere?

    Manti - I don't really know what Manti is doing in this game but if he's town he's doing like absolutely nothing to show it. I don't remember he and Amy having any real interactions, I feel like Manti could have done more to save Amy but meh.

    112 - Had some stuff that felt good to me on d1 but I've been had before on this. I just don't think it's reasonable that there's no wolves on the WWS wagon and 112 seems like a plausible Amy partner.
    doesn't the chemist entry here look like a way more questionable reason to call somebody town than the reasons for the other people in this tier

    and didn't para have like an individual townread on chem early d1 why is none of that reasoning showing up here

    it's almost like Amy and para saw chem was irrationally being townread pretty strongly at the point where they entered and decided chem was powerwolfable
    Pushing chem as a partner

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2464)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2179)
    oh yeah that last question reminds me of a question I forgot to ask para (though he said he has no time today)

    @Paratroopa experience level with manti and general outline of how you think to read him?
    i asked this question pretty much because i felt something along those lines

    his read on why you were wolfy d1 was really generic and not at all even trying to take into account that youre manti
    Bringing back up the question to Para the previous day.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2519)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#384)
    amy stood her ground against me when our reads opposed on mendel/duk3 in the first rand of color wheel in a way that made me easily townread her for having her own worldview and being somewhat stubborn about it

    here, there's nothing she's sticking her neck out for similarly yet; im not even sure why she eased up off of her initial pings from chemist

    and it's not like it was late into d1 in color wheel, it was within the first 8 hours of the day or something

    the main caveat being a lot more happened in that game by this point, and most every slot was more engaged in making reads than in this game
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2543)
    i dont think i'm re-evaluating from chemist/para short of para making a really strong showing

    but if his d1 and d2 reflected the extent of his villageriness as a villager, i dont see it happening

    ive been avoiding making the meta argument for chemist but

    he tends to naturally believe things as a villager and his rate of thought production is extremely underwhelming, he didnt vote at all d2, and like i said earlier, the overview of his d2 was townreading the clear default lynch and top wagon and not fighting for it, townreading flush a little, and not apparently seeing any scumreads until starting to buy zacks case closer to eod (can easily be read as a course correction after being called out by me on the potential TMI)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2617)
    how do you feel about all my chem casing MC

    and how do you feel about the theory that chemist was frozen in w/v wagons eod1 because it's a harder choice than w/w wagons where he can just hop on wws and take cred for a sus he seemed to legitimately have

    and because i was still casing amy right up until like 4-6 mintues before eod (forget exactly when i switched to wws) and it looked like my switch onto wws couldve been a trap

    if chem votes wws there, i switch back onto amy, and its 5-4 amy, chem loses all of his position

    etc
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2630)
    new thought experiment: who's para's partner if it's not chem

    mc you seem to be defaulting to me

    which is kinda lolzy idk man but then again i might tinfoil zack in that world which is kinda lolzy

    ranmilia's entertained a para/dels world

    very impressive game if so, dont think thats what it is tho

    and then para/manti seems weird too because d1/d2 and i also just individually townread manti rn

    so its just para/wws?

    would have to be

    people sussing and pushing para: me/manti/mc/psycho/ranmilia
    people defending para (at least d2): dels/zack
    people with little para progression: wws/chem
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2654)
    mc whats your thoughts on the likelihood of para/chem being the exact team
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2774)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2770)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#2758)
    This this this
    "It'S JuSt GoTtA bE 112 aNd MaNtI rIGhT?"
    remember when i shamed and made fun of you for trying to kill manti d1 while i was killing a wolf?

    me neither
    theyre making fun of paras readslist as wolfy, not making fun of you as bad
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2808)
    im gonna feel so silly if its literaly manti/ranmilia or some $#@!
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2926)
    status update: still tunneling para chem, third spot became ran but then that sus eased up a bit, esp after thinking why would scum ran wanna alienate me by entering like this
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2932)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2931)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2926)
    status update: still tunneling para chem, third spot became ran but then that sus eased up a bit, esp after thinking why would scum ran wanna alienate me by entering like this
    Does my case on chem give you any doubts about them, or doubts about whether or not we would be partnered?
    vaguely but it doesnt outweigh the sum of my worldview which has wws and ranmilia, the next highest tier after you/chem/manti, as just more villagery than you two for a variety of reasons

    i could see being snowed by manti currently still

    but if you're town, i think your conclusions on chem are all just wrong. if you're town it has to be chem/manti or chem/wws somehow.
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2943)
    alright well if para is trying to scare me off para chem it's slightly worked and I'm considering manti more again

    but para manti is playing even more suicidally than para chem

    I still don't rly wanna go into dels or mc tinfoils yet and it probably won't be my problem. I know where I'd vote if I were in an f3 with them right now, but no point telegraphing and I probably wouldn't be in that f3 anyway

    chem mantis obviously kind of strange too

    I'm not even capable of tinfoiling Zack at this point so $#@!ing kudos if this is somehow a scumgame
    Just before psycho states Para/Manti as his pool starts to take Para out based on his posting. Running out of time so skipping a bit.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2953)
    yeah its been stewing in my head ever since i said it again

    ranmilia and manti really could be the team, and they'd need para/chem lynched and they'd be happy with this gamestate, at least for now

    and the jerky, strong confidence progression that ranmilia has had really could be a bit of a plinko board scum progression

    what's really that clearing about playing to position to be in the shots list d3? what's so towny about that? how's that even a coherent plan in the first place? why is that sufficient to put manti at top town?

    so if im wrong on BOTH para and chem, which is obviously still pretty possible, it just has to be ran/manti imo
    10 minutes after Psycho's post we're now in a ran/manti world.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2956)
    i am actually legitimately back in ran/manti world and back out of para/chem world for now
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2962)
    the sod3 soapboxing reads as preemptive alarm that our default lynch today would end up being manti and not para

    so theres this thing ive noticed in my own play which ill call d2 syndrome

    in d2, ill always come in sussing 1-2 scum, and 1 town, and end up sussing the town way harder than the scum for most of that d2

    if it happened to me this game, 112 was the town and ranmilia was the scum in this situation. for zack, 112 was the town and manti was the scum.

    it's possible it just played out that way

    this isn't like... a good sell of the case it's just outing my thoughts on patterns in d2 reads etc
    Claims that he was correct with having one in ran/112 at SOD2, just got the wrong one first.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2971)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2970)
    Yeah looked back at it and Ran was really aggressive about trying to vote out manti
    in this world, manti is telling ran in scumchat it's fine because people won't follow and he won't go over

    or something along those lines
    PUshing the Ran/Manti world

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2999)
    the logic for why i was scummy at sod still just feels off... im scum for not pushing through with para after slightly sussing him mid d2 yesterday

    so i'm para's most likely partner?

    feels like a fake constructed thought designed to pressure me towards pushing para today
    Using a push on Ran to decide it's ok to back off Para.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3038)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3034)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3030)
    dels is just town still but u do u, i think

    i think im gonna stick to 2 in wws/ran/mc final answer here

    which is not where i expected to end up today but it feels alright
    if I was amy i'd be pissed at a wws/mc team lmao
    reminder that mc gave amy a pretty lazy townread at first and it was my pressing mc to look at amy more that eventually got him to vote there

    chemist even quoted that mc post today
    Starts tinfoiling me and uses chem to push it

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3053)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3046)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3000)
    might be worth it to shoot wws simply to finally resolve the d1 wagons

    people's behavior at eod when a wolf was lunched in a close race is kind of important to fully understand
    Really?

    I mean I'd love for a potentially redeeming WWS w flip to happen for my sake but I'm pretty much already resigned to taking the L on this one, I don't think we need to resolve WWS at all when the Flush kill pretty much spews him v

    That's a galaxy brain level shot to make, Flush was practically WWS's only lifeline aside from like... me (and I see a f3 in my future)
    what about wws ran world

    Rans the far deeper and more motivated wolf there and couldn't risk flush actually randing gun and shooting there
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3070)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3068)
    I've been thinking about gun mechanics and I'm pretty sure the best thing to do is to shoot someone who the wolves would be annoyed about having to kill if they're town

    Like, kill manti or wws

    I think manti is the way better choice - the hammer at eod2 is just wolfy as $#@!, they wanted to put an end to the day and didn't really care about the outcome, they've been shading me for weird crap, their iso is basically just a long lolcat. Best case scenario we just hit a wolf and we can all read manti spew together. Worst case scenario, we lose psycho, that sucks (we're probably going to anyway), but then we have a confirmed manti who'll die n3.

    I still really disagree with putting WWS on the chopping block but at least they're someone who is squarely in the POE and the wolves probably aren't going to kill. Again, best case scenario we hit a wolf and I do a happy dance because I was right all along, worst case scenario we lose psycho but now WWS is probably the nk and that gives us a stronger chance going forward.

    I think it should be one of those two. Dels, MC, etc just direct the wolf team to kill a strong target.
    I actually fully agree with this don't do the spicy shots now
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3105)
    like isn't it kind of crazy that Rans entire logic there hinges on para being a wolf
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3330)
    I don't know who to clear in {chem wws ran manti}

    I'm kind of over sussing para for today
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3348)
    also who is even Paras partner at this point.

    I did this thought experiment yesterday and it still kinda works here

    pretty much only chem??

    I guess possibly wws?
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3390)
    my strongest townreads are Zack and dels and he keeps tinfoiling me and dels

    I want wws resolved and he doesn't want to (slightly changing tho maybe)

    I came around to para town and that's his top shot choice

    manti shot is meh could be ok idk

    I'm not super invested in a chem shot either way

    it's really the tinfoils and the para thing that bothers me buuuuut I guess I could be wrong on para and he owned us all last night idk lol xd
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3420)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3419)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3407)
    Psycho666Soldier

    Slimy Soab
    Dels
    iaafr
    CatgirlMaple

    Ranmilia
    Chemist1422

    WaywardSon
    Paratroopa

    Para/Chem
    WWS/Ran

    are the two worlds I'm living in rn
    I think the way para and chemist have hard defended each other today is a losing play if they're w/w

    it's not like that's going to take them out of the POE? so what's the plan there, hard defend your bro so you look even more terrible when they die?
    hard defend cuz there's no easier plays left

    but that's a wifom obv
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3480)
    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3481)
    ##Vote Chemist1422
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3486)
    heart says chem over para rn but i dont have it in me to try to sell anything

    yall do what you want
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3584)
    ##Vote Paratroopa

    wagons will be more competitive this way
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3647)
    really could just be para/chem and we're wasting all this time spinning wheels for nothing

    in light of that possibility, im just gonna park on para and afk now for

    ill be back in roughly 2+ hours but ill be busy at 7pm est all the way through eod, only being able to pop in on mobile

    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3667)
    ##Vote Chemist1422

    restarting this counterwagon, i suppose
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3681)
    so now im settling down towards a chem/ran world with para just defending both wolves and pushing manti

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3712)
    wws

    dels / zack

    paratroopa / mill crab
    chemist

    ranmilia / catgirlmaple
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3742)
    ##Vote Ranmilia
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3756)
    i just want all of chem ran and manti dead at this point
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3993)
    I just don't know
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3976)
    I don't really wanna vote

    ##Unvote CatgirlMaple

    glgl


    Ok out of time. D1 rabbit would have been TMI'ing Amy yet still ends up off the wagon. There are some interactions that seem especially harsh if w/w, unlike the stuff with Para/Amy/Chem.

    D2 did some distancing and again it would have been hard distancing with Para by sheeping a Manti push.

    D3 Starts in the Para/chem world, but moves off it, especially after Psycho floats that he's considering shooting Para. Immediately pushes a Manti world after that. Tinfoils back to Ran, tries to get the chemist wagon back as the cw. Then freaks out, unvotes, and stays off wagon at eod. Here he would have to be relying on us flipping chem v, then going "oh, I guess freaking out at EOD is towny, rabbit's probably town too."
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#4394)
    The case on Dels



    Day 1
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#484)
    So, a lot of the things people are taking issue with with Para are NAI at best.

    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#300)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#290)
    I don't know how to answer this question except to say that it's extremely towny for you to even ask this so I don't care
    What? No it's not.

    ##Vote Paratroopa
    This is exactly how I'd expect Para to respond to that question, and this is exactly how I'd expect him to read Chemist. (Because this is how I'm reading Chemist and I had literally the same reaction to that post)

    Saying "I have meta on Chemist I can read him" "actually well don't overestimate that i've forgotten it" is also totally in line with what I think Para would say

    And the one Psycho Soldier just quoted is the same thing - that's totally normal to be the kind of post that Para would comment on.

    I'm not calling Para town, he's a good wolf and he can emulate his town play well (because he actually enjoys wolfing), but if he's a wolf then he's a wolf who is currently copying his town play and it all looks fine to me.
    Starts off right off the bat with the defense of Para and calling people off him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#510)
    Other people who could be scum:

    Slimy Soab - I don't have anything major here but I don't think Slimy's posts evolved out of the "early day 1 phase" the same way that iaafr or others did where people eventually came down with a solid read. I noticed back during this morning that Slimy wasn't really commenting on the early Mill/Chemist/Dels situation much, felt the most potentially "posting to post" without being able to give reads, and does have a handful of posts since then that feel just sort of "hands-off commentary".

    I didn't particularly like Slimy's push on iaafr, it felt a bit too easy. Like, yes, iaafr was being obviously contradictory and changing a townread into a vote after 10 minutes, but, meh. I look at that and think "okay iaafr is being a weird but if he's scum he knows it looks silly" and I don't really think it merits such an attack so much as a "keep observing and see where he goes". Feels like an easy target.

    But Slimy's had a decent amount of posts with reads that make sense or questioning the same posts I feel are questionable, and has overall not seemed that bad, so I don't feel strongly about this.

    WaywardSon:

    I agree that the entrance could be seen as weak and that his response on this page could be a bit defensive, but the main thing I didn't like was this post: 450. This felt sort of like "Okay I named Amy as my top scumread and I need to look like I'm doing work, so I'll quote a bunch of Amy's posts" and I don't really get the methodology or why he needed to respond to all of these.

    Manti (CatgirlMaple):

    Just has not contributed, and is the person who is the most flying under the radar while making joke-y or non-committal posts. Manti in particular did not "evolve out of the early d1 phase" like I referenced earlier. Voted Chemist, didn't back it up, no progression shown before unvote. This didn't seem like a joke vote. Hopped on to Para as well, no reason given and I actually do think Manti knows Para (from Frostpunk) so it's pretty meh to me.

    Going to vote here for now:

    ##Vote CatgirlMaple

    Other players:

    FTFlush - Slight townlean. Why? Uh. Well. I vaguely liked the way he chose to question 112. I don't know why. Also kind of associate scum!Flush with "posting lots of words to get thread control" which he isn't doing. Maybe just due to IRL reasons, but whatever.

    Amy - Looks fine to me so far. I think Amy's defense of Para makes sense. Amy and Para were also in the previous GH mountainous game and I think she defended both of us there as well. Otherwise not noticing anything wrong with her posts.

    PsychoSoldier and Visorslash - No read yet.
    Gives a defense of Amy and thinks she's been reasonable so far.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#521)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#486)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#484)
    The fact you say he can emulate his town play doesn't make me feel any better about it. I only played with Para once, and I remember him being the defend-y type(pretty sure he defended me while the wolves were trying bumrush me). But it feels like he's actually struggling to engage and putting posts out there to seem active.

    Hell, in his response to Ranmilia's big post about Dels, he both defended Dels AND came out with a townread on Ran. I know it could be confbias, but it read like both a White Knight and a pocket attempt all in one. If Para is good at/enjoys being scum, then I think trying to pull a play off like that in one post is something fully within range.
    I feel like you're making a case for why he could be wolf more than why he is wolf.

    Also I'm not sure how you're saying that as town he's defend-y but then also saying that him defending multiple people could mean he's wolf pocketing.
    Here picking at Psycho's read of Para in a same way the Para picked at Zack's and Flush's cases. Getting technical and calling it a case on why Para might be scum instead of scum instead of debating the content of Psycho's push.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#658)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#653)
    Naw, naw naw naw naw naw. "I don't have any scumreads" is not something to still be saying near the halfway point of the day, not even in a passive meta. Town reads are easy to generate - scum knows exactly who is town and can truthfully call out what town things they are doing. Scum reads are what we need as town. We need to find the scum and vote them out, people who are not doing this are likely to be the scum.

    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Oh noooooooooooo

    It keeps happeniiiiing

    Ranmilia, this is how Para plays as town.

    Every single game I have seen him play where he is town, he gets pushed for admitting he doesn't have any scumreads.

    Para and I play very similarly in that we just don't have scumreads. We townread people and PoE from there. He's even less likely than me to arrive at solid suspects.

    Para's view on the game is actually very similar to mine here and it absolutely makes sense that he has no one he's confident of as scum or even wants to push. (And in fact our lists were very similar except I had more doubt on slimy/mill crab, which is also in character, Para is way more likely to occam's razor and just assume the "good" posters are town)
    Big over the top defense here of Paratroopa (there's a theme developing here).

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#671)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#667)

    1. What is PoE? Not familiar with that acronym.
    2. How does Para play as scum, in your opinion? What would you look for to differentiate that from his town game?
    3. If the scumteam was Dels, Para, Visor, how would you expect that town would be able to vote out scum day 1, or would it just be impossible?
    1) Process of Elimination. In this case it refers to the method of figuring out who you townread/won't lynch, and then ending up with a pool of the rest.

    2) I don't have any specific description for how Para plays as scum, in fact I haven't even really seen it that often. I think he's a good wolf and can emulate his town play. I do think I know of some things that exist beneath-the-surface and I have a few things I am looking for, but I can't publically say what they are. These are things that I think Para isn't necessarily aware that I'd be looking for. Even then I worry I'm saying too much. Of course, he's aware that I may have some ideas about it and would try to work around that, but. Like I said the main thing that I'm trusting is that if he's a wolf I will have some point where I deviate from the feeling of "Everything Para is posting feels natural and makes perfect sense" and it has not happened.

    3) I have no idea how to answer that. I will say my defenses of Para don't tend to even do anything, he nearly got lynched anyway the last time we played even though I said the same things I'm saying now (and said them much more strongly, because it was on day 2 and I had a much more solid base), and I got severely criticized for defending him. I'm not even saying Para can't be a wolf here, just that these reasons to suspect him are NAI (non-allignment indicative) and that everything seems fine to me so far so I have no reason to suspect him
    Some minor theorycrafting on Para's scum game. Laying out early a chance to say "He played like his town game like I said he would, so my defense makes sense!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#712)
    I don't want to be "sheeped" on Para, I just want people to trust that the things I say are NAI are NAI, essentially. It is entirely possible Para is a wolf and you should point out things you see that seem weird, and they may be things I didn't see, or I may say "Oh that's a good point actually". Just that if I give my two cents and say "actually I don't think that thing is AI", I would like that to be listened to.

    If I eventually can actually solidly give a townread there I'd like that to be listened to as well, but we're not there yet.
    Telling people to not sheep him on Para because he knows it'll look bad when Para flips wolf and he was the big town!Para pusher.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#813)
    Ranmilia has your view on Para changed after the discussion we had and/or based on further "meta" context?
    Asks Ran if they've reconsidered their Para scum read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#839)
    Good ISO Mill Crab. We seem to basically have the same view of 112. (whatever that view is, neither of us knows lol) I agree that the points you brought up are the best reasons to see her as scum. I actually didn't remember 445, I like it though. Agree that I still feel Ran's push was more substantiated than 112 implied but we've covered this ad nauseam.

    The push on Para I can see why she'd hate that post, though I do think there's a chance she misrepped it a bit - she portrays it as if Para just got a strong town ping from Chemist's posts. But I think it's more that Para was already townreading Chemist and that post was just a "yeah okay whatever you're town it's fine". Again, this could just be her seeing it differently because she doesn't know Para as well.

    Her vote on Amy today definitely felt a bit opportunistic. I'm also waiting to see what she thinks of you once she's read your posts, and for any other thoughts and/or a worldview going into EoD.
    Defending Para and Amy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#841)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#829)
    I can see the Dels defense brigade was working overtime while I was away
    yes, isn't it just grand. such fun.
    Yikes. Maybe too on the nose to be w/w?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#853)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#848)
    well, if we really are replaying mountainous arson, at least we have a game-breaking newcomb sub to look forward to on d4
    the real question is if chemist is cemetaries
    easy exchange here floating a theory that they would both know is false.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#860)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#849)
    i, for one, would not mind seeing the self-meta that you have an impulse to talk about (im assuming this is what you mean by WIFOM)
    I can tell you what he means

    though I shouldn't

    I can say this because I'm 99.9% certain its stuff that Para is aware of

    so in regards to the idea of his meta being that he doesn't have scumreads as town

    yes, that's his meta as town, and therefore he'd "have to" copy it as a wolf

    but remember - as town, he gets wagoned for it!

    and in one game (s5 finals) he got lynched

    and in mountainous arson he nearly got lynched as a counterwagon

    and, like i said, that was with me defending him

    in other words, if he's a wolf, then "having no scumreads to fit my town meta" will get him lynched.

    and "not being lynched" is more important than "follow my town meta which could get me lynched"

    now, he knows this, and he knows i know it, so if he's scum he'd need to find some way to dance between the two

    but the main point is, the reason why para won't necessarily want to fit his town meta 100% as scum is that it's not a good way to avoid being lynched
    Again defending Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#925)
    Okay I think Slimy and Amy got a bit entangled in a situation where Psycho didn't get that one of Amy's posts was a joke, and Amy corrected it and said that Psycho didn't have any "reachy bull$#@!". Slimy thinks that missing a joke is reachy bull$#@!. Amy says missing a joke is fine.

    I don't really see that as being the key point here (sorry) and that seems to be most of what Slimy is focusing on.The other point being that there was also a quote she didn't understand why it was there (because Psycho seemingly forgot to comment on) which also she includes in the net of reasonable comments. I can sort of see how she could be generalizing and therefore giving an opinion that doesn't match what she said she feels.

    I can see Amy's tacked on "but this doesn't ping me" as scum just throwing an opinion out there for the sake of it. I can also see it as a real thought which is getting scrutinized way too much and her only response is "man i just didn't think it was a scummy push ok" and there's nothing else she can say.

    Amy's responses are really.... uh, sassy? Like calling the pushes on her lacking (810) and calling the WWS wagon lame (816) even though she's literally on it. Is Amy really like this as a wolf? It's basically purposefully saying things which could piss people off.

    822 She's literally not even trying to explain reads. I mean, if she's scum, what the hell is she doing? Same with 896, what even sort of tactic is this as scum? I'm inclined to read it like she's genuinely frustrated. Because she does have a point. She literally said "I haven't caught up I'm just going to defend myself and not post reads" and was met with "omg you're just defending yourself instead of posting reads"

    basically it just feels twtbaw, but i admit i can see why zack took an issue with the "oh but psycho's case doesn't ping me" addendum. i don't really see zack as looking worse for this but i guess i can see if he's scum how he'd feel it was a good push to make.
    Tries to digest the Amy/Zack fight and comes out of it with a town lean on her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#931)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#806)
    last time i played with town!WWS, he was pretty low in the content department (to the point where he probably would have been mislynched had he not subbed out), and i was hoping to avoid a similar situation in this game
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#816)

    THAT SAID there's like... nothing else in his iso that i'd consider alignment indicative. at all. mostly there's just not a lot of anything. it's a fine wagon i guess but it's a LAME one
    @Ampharos If town!WWS was low in content then why vote WWS here for being low in content? Are you saying it was a pressure vote to make him post more?

    You said it was a lame wagon but you still had your vote on him here. I understand you were catching up and it was an old vote so maybe it doesn't mean much, but. You've moved it now but would you go back, if Slimy doesn't become a wagon?
    Tries to get Amy back in the thread and contributing in the next couple of posts to try and get the heat off her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#938)
    also @Ampharos have you replied to WWS's questions to you?
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#976)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#974)
    this is what soab was referring to
    ah

    i don't think there's any way i can stand against an amy lynch at this point, and i'm not opposed to it

    probably not where i'm going to be voting though
    Says Amy lynch makes sense but won't vote her.

    End of D1 Dels straight defends both wolves and ends up off wagon

    Day 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1291)
    Not looking at today:

    Psycho
    Mill Crab
    Zack
    (Iaafr)

    Some paranoia but probably fine:

    Ranmilia
    Chemist
    Para

    Could be scum I guess if I'm wrong elsewhere:
    FTFlush

    To look at today:
    WaywardSon
    CatgirlMaple
    112

    Psycho and Mill both had really strong second halfs of day 1. Psycho I think is strongly town. Mill Crab, I wouldn't be blown away if he's scum, but I would be highly impressed, all of his analysis and discussion looked good. Zack I was unsure about but after the way he handled Amy I am assuming he is just town. If the wagons are w/w, maybe a little less, but even then.

    Ranmilia I still have some paranoia about. If the wagons were w/w (or even if they were w/v and Ran was worried Amy would die), I can actually see it making sense to do that "gambit" to find a really good reason to say no to the competing wagons and move elsewhere. Because Para and I were both on Manti, this actually did have a chance of becoming the lead wagon, and could be a way to save Amy (and/or WWS) That said, I think the progression makes sense based on Ran's worldview and I have a similar thing for trying to find the wagon that is strangely being avoided, so this is really only somewhere I'd look if we are wrong elsewhere.

    Chemist's EoD was weird. Chemist didn't even place a vote. I have no idea what to make of it. I don't really see why Chemist as scum would handle the EoD like that unless he was just literally frozen and didn't know whether to try to save/bus a partner. Need to take a second look at this later.

    So, I read the EoD knowing the flip, and I made sure to follow Para's EoD to see how it lines up. I think it all makes sense and is in line with his town game as I perceive it. The first thing is that Para had a vote on Manti from earlier in the day when Ran asked them to place a vote. Para unvotes in 1150 by just listening to Manti saying "if i was a wolf i wouldn't be a wagon" basically. If he was a wolf I think he'd have much more of a plan with his vote and wouldn't just give in for what is basically a really weak reason. Para eventually votes WWS in 1198 basically not giving a reason for it, and also doesn't really talk much more about Amy. I think if Para was a wolf, he would be much more careful about crafting a progression here, especially knowing a wolf flip was potentially on the table. If WWS is town he'd want to make sure his progression for the vote is very clear and easy to see. Para basically awkwardly stumbles around at the EoD being confused about why people are off-wagon/frozen, and I think as a wolf he'd make sure to show more confidence in his pick so that he looks, uh, "solid", if that's the word. If WWS is scum then whatever, there's no reason to be critical of Para anyway and everything is fine.

    FTFlush I don't have anything to say about except that I like him coming in and calling 112 scum at the end of the day. I don't know, it lines up with my own worldview and it doesn't really feel like a scum tactic. Could be wrong about this. If the scum aren't in my bottom tier, this is a potential oversight.

    Will write about the others in another post
    Starts with Para out of the POE and defends his EOD

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1330)
    the reason why i initially leaned town on amy was because of how she was defending para (and sort of myself)

    i thought it made sense since she's played with us before and has seen para get suspected for those reasons, but i'll take another look at it to see if it could be partner-defending. it can also just be tmi/a good way to get cred from the two of us.

    i wouldn't think too much about the stuff in the last 15 minutes, think that is definitely anti-spew.

    i agree that the "opportunistic" thing with chemist is hard to see as w/w. that felt like a real attempt at shade.

    no major thoughts on the rest of the amy spew stuff except i was nodding my head along with it and think most of your thoughts make sense.
    defending his town read on amy

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1334)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1322)
    is it time for Dels to defend para more
    not particularly. i said what i had to say about para's EoD. will have to look at the amy interactions again later but i still think that if he was wolf he'd craft a bit better of a progression there. i could be wrong though. if people accuse para of stuff that i know is NAI i'll say so, but otherwise i don't object to other suspicion on him and i don't think it's impossible for him to be a wolf. i'll speak up if i feel i have something valuable to say.
    Says he won't really defend Para, but does.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1337)
    oh, i will actually say that the Visor kill is in line with how I know Para looks to do nightkills as wolf. He likes doing low-info kills, i.e. on people with low post count.

    I don't think it's a major point but it's possible
    Does point out that Para could make the Visor kill. Would be a weird thing to call out if they're partnered since nobody had really thought about that before this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1378)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1375)
    I mean para did kind of defend the wolf and vote the counterwagon, as did I, so...
    I would have too if I was there!

    though i didn't really object to either lynch
    Defends Para here with a line that I interpret as "I, a townie, would have voted the cw to the wolf. So Para could be town too!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1606)
    Mill Crab I'm not able to respond to all of that Para stuff right now but honestly it's probably better if Para responds to it first because it feels sort of silly for me to be speaking for Para before he can even show up and speak for himself. I will read it all later and let you know any parts I have thoughts on
    Doesn't Garcia rule, but in a self-aware way because he knows it would look bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2083)
    oh nevermind, it was para who said that about chemist, not ftf.
    Here got confused about who was making a defense of chemist, but attributes it to Para (I think correctly?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2086)
    Okay, here is how I am going to approach the Para situation.

    I am going to make the best possible case I can make for Para being town. If people read my thoughts and want to vote Para anyway, then that is fair enough. You have a different point of view from me, and mine is unfortunately biased and affected by the fact that this is such a thing.

    That doesn't mean I'm certain the case is right. I don't think it's impossible for Para to be a wolf, and there are valid points. But I think a lot of the reasons being posted aren't accurate. Think of it like the trustfall exercise that Mac & the Syndicate players do. It's me listing my best reasons to townread Para. And then you'll decide if that's enough for you. And I will too.

    The first thing, and I said this earlier, is that Para, as a wolf, does not put himself in situations where he knows he will look bad. Defending a partner without a clear reason to. Voting a wagon without a clear progression. Being wishy washy with votes (like he did with the Manti vote/unvote) just for the sake of it when he knows it could get him questioned. (And particularly, questioned when he won't even have a good explanation for it)

    Particularly, he would know that he'd look bad if he votes Amy's counterwagon and then she flips wolf. He'd want to make sure, if he was doing that, that his vote makes total sense. But he naked voted WWS and didn't really have much of a progression there except "don't really think this is amy's scumgame"

    Even if WWS is a wolf, he would know town wouldn't assume that and that he'd look bad the next day. And remember, like I said and Ran has sort of implied, the wolves would know Amy is a lost cause, in other words he really didn't need to go out of his way to save her, she was never going to survive long.

    ---

    His posts today: This readslist (1816) is totally in line with what I'd expect Para to think today. Like on day 1, it's nearly the same reads list I have, except I have WWS as scum and Para doesn't. Iaafr quoted this and said it's a "weird distribution of tiers". It is not. This is how Para forms worldviews on day 2 and onwards. He basically townreads everyone and PoEs it down to what seems like the most likely team. And then (and this is what manti said), yes, he won't have a strong in-depth reason for the people at the bottom, other than "they just aren't town, it's gotta be them".

    I don't see anything in this readslist that feels off to me. And ultimately, it's not any different than most people's, except that he doesn't have himself on it, so I don't really see this as something to find fishy.

    - Also, this post: 1849 Minor thing, but I don't think Para would look at Visor's spew like this if Para killed Visor. Para, as a wolf, wants other people to make the reads he wants them to make. If he killed Visor to use Visor's reads to frame someone, he will wait for someone else to bring it up, rather than doing it himself. "Make them think it's their idea", essentially.

    The other thing that Manti said which is a reach was that Para has "less Wim" today. (1860) Para was literally just asleep or busy IRL and hadn't posted yet and the day wasn't even half over. This is normal. He does not post during those hours. If you're looking at Para and thinking "well gosh he stopped posting, he's so frozen!" then that's just not correct.

    Honestly, I don't think I have anything to say other than that and what I said about Para at the start of day. (1291) which I'd say to reread.

    So, with that all said...

    There are valid reasons to suspect Para here.

    Amy's defense of him could be partner interaction. I maintain this does not have to be the case though - Like I said, Amy has played with Para before (Marson) and has defended him there. If she's scum, it's possible that he was just a convenient person to defend for cred/with tmi because she knows how to do it. It's just easier for her to defend him since she knows his meta and doesn't have to struggle to find reasons for it. That said, in this case, the "thing he did to look bad" wouldn't be a thing he knew would look bad when he did it (which he'd avoid), it'd be him trying to interact with partner Amy and it just being not great.

    Para's defense of Amy near EoD could be partner. I think it's in line with his town play because he will always avoid what seems like an easy lynch, and will always assume wolves aren't just imploding and doing things that they know will make them look awful. But maybe they're buddies and he knows that meta is a good excuse to be able to defend her. If WWS is town, he could easily have saved her - he didn't know that I wasn't going to show back up, and if I did, I'd have voted WWS. (And I think I made it clear enough that's where I was leaning) So he'd want to craft a progression to get onto WWS hoping Amy could be saved. Like I said, I don't know if he likes bussing or not as a wolf. I just know that whatever he does do, he makes sure to craft the progression masterfully.

    also noting these EoD Para posts to Amy (877 and 901) which I can see as forced partner interaction, but also maybe as just, y'know, trying to solve the wagons

    Beyond that, I guess the most I can say is that, in Marson, on day 2 in this situation, I was able to pretty clearly say "Not only do I think Para is not scummy, but I actually can say I think he is town" and I was able to feel pretty definitive about it. And that's not the case here. My townread of him isn't as strong in this game, and maybe that means he's a wolf and he's still doing well but he ultimately just can't reach the same bar. On Marson, the things he was accused of were entirely playstyle and "why don't you have scumreads?!" and "why are you being obstinate". In this game there is actually legit stuff.

    Uh... I guess my opinion has actually changed as I write this, and as I look back at the Para/Amy interactions. I think the things I'm seeing in Para look fine and that the case against him isn't the best, but... he can be a wolf. It's not Mill Crab/Psycho/Zack/Iaafr. Really don't think it's Ranmilia. I think Flush is town now. Chemist, uh, maybe. But if the scum aren't in the 112/Manti/WWS group, then... yeah, I guess it could be Para. I don't know who else it would be.

    Para, if you are town, this is about the limit of what I can do to help you. If you are a wagon today I will continue to do my due diligence. But I don't know if there's anything more I can say right now, sorry.
    Makes a big town case on Para but does leave open that he could be a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2087)
    @Mill Crab: You asked me about 290 earlier. Yes, that falls under NAI. That is a very Para post. If he's a wolf, that's him doing a good job emulating his town play. Also: Yes, Para is not wordy like me. He throws out reads and he really doesn't like having to write more than a simple sentence to explain why he had the read.

    (also I agree if para is a wolf it's very unlikely chemist is, from how amy/para talked about chemist. just a very weird w/w/w interaction if so)

    other things from Mill Crab's iso:

    I can see 374 in particular being a sort of hands-off way of trying to have discussion about a partner. (Not postnumming others, just found this one while reading Mill Crab's iso)

    831 also could be partner-y interaction i guess

    846 Mill Crab you said you disliked this vote. This is exactly the vote I'd expect Para to make, in fact it is the same vote I had and (shocker) we voted the same way. No issue with that vote. Para is always going to trend towards voting for what he thinks people are missing rather than just taking an easy wagon.

    you said 891 was a lame followup to the manti vote but that's an example of where i don't think para would be lame as a wolf - he'd make sure to have a nice progression, not just sort of flub around.
    Answers my question about the NAI check and argues against some of my other points in my Para case.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2089)
    re. Manti:

    I don't have much about Manti, but Manti has been posting more. I think Manti's push on Para can be a bit opportunistic and I think he's going after things that aren't really there, like saying Para has had a Wim dropoff just because he wasn't in thread, or that his reads list didn't have enough words or the distriubtion was wrong or etc

    This is the only post I noticed that I felt was particularly scummy: 1933 I find wolves often take the angle of "Oh, this person pushing me seems genuine, so I think they're town", when townies are way more likely to get annoyed about suspicion or omgus it. Again this is similar to what Amy did with Psycho

    Manti's most notable post was wagon worldbuilding in 1844 but like I said I really don't think there's too much to read in to this because Amy was not someone worth saving. Manti also makes some weird conclusions like "Either Amy was bussed, or she had an AFK partner" but also since Para's his suspect, she could've also been saved. This post doesn't do much for me.

    Town:
    Mill Crab
    Psycho
    Zack
    Iaafr

    Probably Town:
    Flush
    Ranmilia

    Likely Town:
    Chemist

    Maybe Town:
    Para

    PoE:
    Manti
    WWS
    112

    My thoughts haven't majorly changed from SoD but I've solidified that I think FTF and Ran are town, really not seeing Chemist as scum, and that Para is the most likely scum if I'm wrong somewhere since there's nothing as strong as the stuff Ran/Chemist/Flush have.

    Sadly there's no one else around now but I would really love to hear people's thoughts on all the stuff I posted, I will try to get a bit of sleep but I should be around and will decide on a vote after discussion
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2116)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2113)
    My only real counter-argument to this is I think Para would also always try to think about doing things that advance the team's wincon. I spent a lot of time talking with Para in the jury chat discussing mafia philosophy and playstyle(mostly in context to the games, we weren't having epic debates or anything), and I get the feeling he values wolves who try to play straight without bussing their partners. And I think as a natural extension of his tendency to defend mislynch bait, he would have a hard time not trying to defend his partners.

    And in fact, like you had brought up, he absolutely has to emulate his town game to fool people like you. So why not use that as a veil for defending a buddy who looks like potential mislynch bait? He'd have a good explanation out of it and you to come to his defense. Imagine a world where WWS was the kill and Para's in 112's position right now. Would you not immediately be worried Para was the scapegoat for mafia knowing how he plays?
    You're right, it's possible. I actually have no idea what Para's philosophy on bussing is, I'm not sure we've ever talked about. I think any wolf could've either bussed there, or if they saved, they'd have known it wasn't gonna be worth much. But it's possible he chose "try to save", especially since, yes, as town, it's the sort of lynch he'd defend.

    Not sure what you're asking with the hypothetical, sorry.

    Yeah, I'm not really following Manti on the WIM thing, and your point about his EOD voting habits are solid(I do think Manti comes off as obv mislynch bait if the lynch goes through and that wagon would be heavily under scrutiny, so I could see why he'd do it).
    I think Para as town is just much more likely to put a vote on someone for ethereal reasons and then be like "eh yeah i guess that's not right", I've seen it so many times.

    Part of me is getting vibes that I was right in the first place and probably shouldn't have let go, but I think a lot of his posting comes off mostly pure today, as well as his latter-half d1 stuff. And I did actually really come out of my interaction feeling good about him.
    Para can definitely fake the tone as a wolf. That said, I think we feel sort of similarly here. I admit I've been convinced that Para is a possible wolf but that doesn't mean I'm going to look at his good posts and say "well he could do it as a wolf so i guess he is one".
    Concedes that Para can fake tone but still defends him

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2146)
    i actually wouldn't rule out 112/para. yes she made that strong push against him day 1 but a) it was early day 1, b) she never went back to him and hasn't really done anything with him today and c) if she's scum i think she just genuinely hated his post and would be the type who is like "well as town i'd hate it, so i have to reply to it" (also she's a busser)

    i had the same thought earlier but then i thought of what i just said. idk if it's the most likely pairing (since he's also calling her scum today) but i don't think it's 100% ruled out

    agree no ran/manti though i'm a bit surprised you still have ran in your PoE
    Doesn't want me to rule out a 112/Para team. Don't know how much he believed that possibility at the time but it would give him a reason to back off Para again after 112 flips town. He does walk it back later when I explain that the 112/Amy/Para interaction would be awkward if it was w/w/w

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2221)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#2197)

    #1822 - This is ALSO convincing to me, as unlikely a source as it comes from.

    Para has no reads, all game, and when I looked to him today, he went back to the same well of the Maple vote. "Eh, it's just gotta be these two?" in this situation is scum mindset. He hasn't done anything but exchange townread high fives, get an early highlight from Ampharos for doing so, and continue to coast, trying to get in the inner circle of people's PoEs but without actually putting in the effort like we see from Mill Crab/Psycho/Soab. He's avoided creating any conflict or showing any emotion other than "Hmm, yay, these people are all town," except when Ampharos was in danger.
    Okay, I see why you see this but again, this is not correct. That reads list is exactly how Para makes reads as town and the things Manti is criticizing it for are things you could criticize Para's reads lists on in most of the games I've seen him play.

    His world view is not weird - it's actually the same world view that I have (almost), that Zack has, sort of-ish that iaafr has (i think), etc.

    If you think he is trying to exchange townreads to buddy people or whatever, then fair enough, sure as scum he tries to use his "good tone" to get on people's good side. But I think in the context of this game, that reads list makes sense.

    I also accept Dels as correct when he says that Para believes in advancing his faction's win condition. Para, this game, has not done that for town. There's no effort, just a coast, a list of townreads, and an appeal to kill the other people in everyone's PoE circles.
    I actually didn't say Para believes in advancing his faction's win condition though theoretically I hope everyone does, but I don't know if it's a thing I'd specifically attribute to Para. But in this case, Para does not play town like those other people.. You will not find a Para town game where he is doing ISO work and wall posts and big cases. He is really not as tryhardy as me or others. He comes in, reads the game, posts his takes, tries to summarize his most coherent worldview and defend the lhf, and... yeah.

    I can't point to a lack of something directly in an ISO, it seems crazy for me to be going with Maple's read of all people, but I think Maple is spot on in saying townPara would have done more than he has, and that's the critical difference between townPara and scumPara.
    That's just not true.

    What last night was all about was waiting for Dels to deliver his read on that situation without tipping the hand too much, because Dels has been the active Para defense and I was worried about a potential world of Ampharos/Para/Dels. The hypothesis was, if Dels is scum with Para, or if my read is totally off and Dels really knows better and Dels/Para are both town, there would be a vigorous defense. If Dels is town who doesn't want to believe it, but is honestly looking at Para's game and whether Para could be scum here, and seeing what I'm seeing, we'd see weak agreement.

    Dels delivered the weak agreement. THE LIST DISAPPEARED WHEN PARA TOOK A DRINK VOTING MAPLE TODAY. Para is the spy, the one vaguely in people's sights but having people go "eh... we should get 112."
    Yes. Let me be clear, despite everything I am saying above:

    You have won this argument.

    You, and Mill Crab and Psycho, have convinced me.

    Para could be a wolf.

    I am saying the things I said above because I want to let you know those are gaps in your case because if Para is a wolf, those are not the things that are wolf-indicative. Those are playstyle.

    But yes, it is entirely possible Para is a wolf and I concede this and you are right and I realized it that the limit of my defense stopped far short from "I can confidently say he is town"

    But I still do not think it is the most likely option, and I would still rather vote in the group of WWS/112/Manti today.

    If that group does not contain the wolves, Para immediately drops into my PoE at this point and like I said I don't think I will resist his lynch.

    But it's not where I want to go today.

    Again, I 100% fully respect the case you are making here and I see why you think it and I do not think it is a bad case. I think there is a chance you are right and I will look stupid. It's just not for me today.

    If others want to then I probably wouldn't fight against it but it's not going to be my vote unless something changes.
    Concedes that Para could be wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2241)
    i feel like i'm in a really annoying situation because i'm feeling compelled to defend someone that i'm not even that convinced isn't a wolf

    and i don't know why i feel that way

    i wish para was here could speak for himself

    and i guess there isn't any reason why i need to speak for him at all or post any defense at this point since i said i didn't have any more

    so i don't know why i'm doing it

    except that it feels like its my job. and it shouldn't.

    and again i'm not even saying "para's not a wolf" i'm more just saying "some of these reasons you are giving for it are not good reasons" because i'm not even certain he's not a wolf, just still not as likely to the others for me

    urgh

    i'm just annoyed
    Frustration that he has to keep defending his buddy when he isn't around to do it himself?

    End of D2 does get to the point that Para could be a wolf but doesn't go there.

    Day 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2321)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2315)
    would advise shooting inside chemist para

    will towncase manti when I wake up again later
    i will need a lot of convincing on this.

    that said i agree that para is a consideration but i think i lean towards what mill crab said and i am going to re-up my efforts to get people to consider that it can just be wws
    Starts out with Para in the POE but wants to shoot WWS.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2397)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2392)
    His responses to me, that is. Or like, his attitude? I got the feelz from the moment that he really hated me commenting on his wim, and he was kinda confused by what I meant wrt his post

    I felt frustration from him when it started to get bought into
    Para gets really annoyed when people accuse him of not posting (or having low WiM) because he's literally asleep during the first 8 hours of the day. (as town or as scum)
    Surprise, more Para defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2461)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2453)
    ranmilia, wws, and you are the immediate mislynches necessary

    and then its lylo?

    if they cant get one of the above 3 they gotta double tinfoil lynch into {dels/mc/soab/iaafr}

    assuming my worlds just correct xd
    i mean, those aren't just the list of "mislynches wolves need", are they?

    that can also be the list of "people we are still able to lynch, and win if the wolf isn't in the town circle"

    10 alive today

    1 shot.

    9 alive.

    1 lynched.

    next day, 7 alive.

    1 lynched.

    next day, 5 alive.

    1 lynched.

    next day, 3 alive.

    1 lynched.

    that's a total of 4 lynches and one shot. if the shot is on a wolf, great. if it's on a town, we lose psycho which is like mislynching.

    so if the wolves are in the list of wws/manti/para/chemist, that's... not only a win, but there'd still be one more available lynch if we're wrong about someone and reach final 3?

    am i doing that math right?

    i'd absolutely re-evaluate if we get further and people keep flipping green but it still seems like a good pool right now.
    Has Para in the POE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2522)
    I actually haven't played with Manti before (i don't think) so I'm not aware if his town strategy often involved basing things off wagons and votes. I just think it's an easy angle for wolves to take and I think even in comparison to Ran, Ran has done it with much more conviction.

    I can actually see worlds with WWS, Para, and Chemist now so I'm not actually as set on Manti via PoE as I was yesterday.
    Takes Manti out which would be a bad move keeping Para in

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2568)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2556)
    god i dont even know if i can case wws town out of this

    and im not sure id be right either

    but my gut says thats not the sweep

    ehhhhhh
    i want to see the case because i too really don't think it's right

    i feel like if i was in spec chat i would be screaming "why can't they see it was w/w wagons" "w/w wagons happen sometimes, they're just dismissing it for no reason" "amy and wws' interactions are super forced and that quote wall iso sucked"

    but since i'm in a game i'm not able to have any confidence on it other than weakly trying to tell people i think it but being worried its wrong anyway

    but i think if i had the gun here i'd really want to shoot wws

    (though i'm very glad i don't have the gun, actually)
    Advocating WWS shots.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2600)
    okay, i'm going to stop posting for a bit because i want to give mill crab and others time to catch up

    we kind of need wws and para here at this point, para especially

    i think i agree 1 wolf in chem/wws but not both.

    i actually kind of like some of manti's posts over the last 2 pages, i can see what you're saying iaafr that there are some unique worldviews that show actual thinking and make points others aren't making

    i'm not clearing manti but i can see how it could be para with 1 of chem/wws. para/wws doesn't make a ton of sense since para would've stayed on manti day 1 instead of voting wws, though bussing is a thing and if the team is para/wws/amy he knows they are toast and he'd want cred.

    para/chem makes sense afair from what iaafr has said

    sorry para. it's not that i am doubting you (i guess i am) but there's a lot of townie people and i have to consider it since the other worlds are weird.
    Para/Chem could make sense and apologizes to Para that he can't keep the defense up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2624)
    oh, sorry, as an addendum, the other thing that para did here to look bad is of course voting wws instead of amy, if he is town. i don't weigh too much on votes personally because i think wolves can bus or save or whatever, especially on a wolf like amy, but it is possible, and mill crab i believe made the perfect case for why para as a wolf would try to a) save amy while b) getting cred from me for a wws vote that i know is in line with his town play. doesn't make him a wolf, but it's another valid point which lessens my ability to say "para has done nothing bad" like i did in marson.
    Getting some distancing in

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2675)
    Yeah, I think I'm coming around to the Chemist/Para world, though that might just be recency bias because Manti is posting and Para isn't. It's not a wim dropoff and irl stuff is fine but I really need to hear from Para.
    Coming around to Para/Chem but waiting for Para to show up and work his magic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2694)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#2690)


    Ok is there anything that excludes this from being w/w/w? I don't think there is because the amy/para bits are innocuous enough and talking about chemist like that (while mildly rude), isn't out of the realm of possibility. Think I'm off of where I was at yesterday with this.
    this actually reminds me of what we were talking about in spec chat during wildcard 1.

    about how a wolf is more likely to feel its okay to be "rude" to a wolf partner, because they a) can say in wolf chat they don't mean it and b) it looks like distancing

    this is what evenstar successfully used to look like w/w with vanity, by insulting his day 1 play

    it could be what's happening here, especially because i don't think amy is a rude person at all, and that comment is actually sort of... yeah
    Agrees that amy/para/chem could be w/w/w but focuses more on AMy's part of that interaction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2842)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2839)
    Chemist isn't a good shot/lynch for reasons I outlined on day 2 but I guess nobody really paid any mind to that
    so you are thinking it is manti/wws? or someone else for the 2nd?
    Getting Para to build worlds and try and dig himself out of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2902)
    i'm surprised there's not more posts but i guess we all sort of overdid it today

    i'm too tired now to read psycho's posts, sorry

    my opinion on para's posts is they're good and the worldview makes sense and and maybe i'm wrong about everything and should just listen to para i don't know i need to sleep

    see you all tomorrow
    Goes to bed thinking Para's posts are good again. This is Dels' last post before psycho says he's thinking of shooting between Para/Manti

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3067)
    Posting on my phone so not formatting well but tl;Dr

    After looking at Paras posts here I am actually siding with Zack - if para is a wolf this is a remarkably authentic worldview, coming in and defending chemist still, pushing manti but not knowing who the other partner is and admitting it (again like Zack said how does this help para, he just looks bad because he gets asked "who are the wolves" and can't answer) he suspects iaafr but then he takes it back, he's been defending ranmilia but then overnight naturally starts agreeing with iaafr that ran can be wolf. Still questioning the wws world and on particular the post where he CONTINUES to deny that wws is an option, but is now also questioning it more

    This feels like a) not the wolf perspective which is having an agenda of "don't get shot, push a clear other worldview" but also is actually solving and updating in real time, not to mention it is CONFUSED which villagers are

    I agree that when you view this in contrast with manti (and also when it's been a day and I've had time away from it) that mantis posts are more in line with a scum having a plan for today and trying to set it in action

    Again none of this is necessarily unfakrable for para but if it's faked it's a really good progression
    The next morning Para's posts are good again and he's snot a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3074)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3046)
    Really?

    I mean I'd love for a potentially redeeming WWS w flip to happen for my sake but I'm pretty much already resigned to taking the L on this one, I don't think we need to resolve WWS at all when the Flush kill pretty much spews him v

    That's a galaxy brain level shot to make, Flush was practically WWS's only lifeline aside from like... me (and I see a f3 in my future)
    This post in particular from para gave me the strongest feeling

    Like wifom is wifom but if Paras a wolf he is ACTIVELY fighting against one of his best outs here

    It would be so easy to agree wws can be scum and tell people it's a world of manti/wws (never mind chemist/wws which he has solidly solidly rejected)

    Sure he can rely on people thinking what I'm thinking, but if he's a wolf he's not doing anything to actually make people believe the world is one of those others, which is suicide when he's in line for the shot
    Defending him again

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3078)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3075)
    I want to be clear on something here - do you think I'm actually town for all this now? Previously your position was that 'eh para could fake this as a wolf idk'
    I don't know. I'm currently heavily being swayed by iaafrs (and zacks) posts and am still processing everything I read and trying to rethink what world's make sense

    I think if you're a wolf these are really good posts because, well, yes, they are really towny.

    Gun to head right now I'd say you are town and wolves are in manti/wws/chemist/ran
    Pulls Para out of his POE

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3085)
    And again, if Paras a wolf here then I am literally telling him I think he could be town and the wolves are in chemist/manti/wws/ran and he is basically trying to tell me that they can't be in wws/chemist and narrow down my options, and what, hope I think it's a manti/ran team (which even though I am considering manti now, that team is weird)

    You can say it's wifom or that he knows I won't listen but quite frankly para knows I generally listen to anything he says and will rarely disagree
    Would be some weird distancing here, but I can squint and see it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3124)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3113)
    I'm sort of reeling at the implication that I would make a flush shot because I would be worried that flush would MISFIRE at ran (killing himself, if ran is town, from ran's pov) and then that ran would magically be imbued with the power to make everyone listen to them and that is what would finally bring me down

    Like... wouldn't I be way more afraid of ran getting the gun. why would ran not think I'm more concerned about the direct threat of ran shooting me in the face
    This is a good point too.

    Ran's worldview is consistent. I generally view consistency as towny (in a vacuum)

    But it's possible that Ran as a wolf still understands their playstyle well enough that they can fake the thought process behind it to fit an agenda.

    And that's been basically the eternal dilemma with Ran all game, which I have basically always brought up, wavered on, dismissed, but am now really considering because I'm not seeing you as scum and I am willing to concede that both Chemist and WWS have reasons to be "just town"
    Opens up the idea that Ran could be a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3125)
    Ran have any of Para's posts tonight changed your opinion? Or made you have doubts?
    Again asking Ran if Para has done anything to change their mind.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3130)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3126)
    tbh this sort of makes me wonder if ran forgot that it was possible that he could be randed the gun (in theory)
    that would be a genuine perspective slip which would actually be fantastic

    but seriously that is a good point
    Gloms onto Para calling out a perspective slip. And for the Ran doubters, that is a dumb way to call out wolf!Ran by Para. No need to get people thinking about your partner's perspective slips when that really hasn't been brought up much (if at all) all game.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3135)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2862)
    This Chem post just felt super pure to me too - like I think it takes a ridiculous amount of self-awareness to be a frozen wolf and then admit to the thread that you are a frozen wolf

    Everything chem's doing is relying on the big brain play of getting dummy Para to defend him based on $#@! like this
    i think someone else already said this but this is what i refer to as an example of being too leniant, and i know you and i are both prone to thinking "well why would the wolf do something that looks bad"

    but sometimes they do

    and if chemist's a wolf, i can absolutely see him not knowing what to do, not being able to keep up with posting reads in a game with such a strong towncore all narrowing in on the right perspective, and so just relying on hoping that he seems honest in his nervousness
    Chiding Para a bit here and trying to get him to wolf read somebody in the POE

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3149)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2843)



    wasn't serious

    ##Vote 112

    lolno

    ##Unvote 112

    nah this vote feels dumb

    I'm gonna go with the WMFM take on this one

    ##Vote WaywardSon

    ##Vote WaywardSon

    idk

    what if I told y'all

    ##Vote Dels

    I really need to step back from this game and re-evaluate

    Every 2 minutes I want to make a different snap read

    Any time I try to go into an ISO I get bored really quick

    ##Unvote Dels

    I'm not gonna be around until tomorrow

    I'll try to focus better then

    Alright so looking at Chem's voting progression on day 1

    Goes 'idk' onto WWS, switches to 112 and immediately has doubts, goes back onto WWS for... uh, reasons I'm super unclear on, switches to Manti flippantly for a bit (I lost that post in my multiquote somehow I think and I'm too lazy to grab it again), then goes 'idk' on WWS AGAIN

    now all of this looks pretty bad on its own - chem keeps fidgeting onto the WWS wagon and never votes Amy, never really has a great reason for voting WWS, feels a little forced trying to get on there

    ...and then, after a wolfy setup to get onto a WWS counterwagon, he completely drops it, votes a vanity wagon at the end of the day, then unvotes and does not revote WWS, letting the lynch rand to Amy.

    I dunno how Chem plays wolf but you would have to have a seriously low opinion of Chem's ability to just hold pat on the WWS lynch after trying to get onto it three times. He could have just voted for WWS a fourth time here with another 'idk' and I mean, it would have looked worse for him in the long run because he'd officially be on the counterwagon, but Amy would be alive. Going to this degree of non-effort to have a progression on WWS just to dump it at the end for seemingly no reason makes no sense to me. If Chem is a wolf he got like sub-zero cold feet here and it didn't even help. Nobody thought Chem's eod was towny. He could have just bussed. He didn't. He got nothing out of this.
    Okay. Para was this your main post about Chem? Or was there another later I am somehow missing?

    Those first few posts are the sort of thing that I categorize as "this was good reasoning but not sure it holds up anymore, wolves do things sometimes"

    You're right though that the strongest point is that Chem was already on WWS. We've been talking a lot about how Chem got frozen at the EoD because he didn't know whether he should vote Amy or WWS (makes sense if they're v/w. if they're w/w it's easy to get cred)

    But it is true that he was already on WWS, so the crucial time would be the moment he unvoted WWS when he didn't have to. "Chem was scared to hop on WWS to save Amy there since he'd look bad after her flip" is a possible story. "Chem was scared to stay on WWS which he'd already justified" is a weirder one and I can see less reason for him to panic unless he's really really nervous about it.

    If he's partners with WWS/Amy I can see why he'd want to unvote WWS but why vote me instead of going for Manti or Flush? I guess he'd be scared that'd look really transparent after having his vote on WWS. And then... he doesn't go back on either of them... yeah I dunno, he should know as wolf that he can get cred there without looking bad.

    I don't have a conclusion here except that I think a lot of this stuff isn't clearing anymore at this stage in the game but that unvote of WWS should give us pause, yes.
    Interacting with Para over his chem read and again trying to get him to change it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3167)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3162)

    furthermore, everyone except chemist and wws has been around solving in the thread. not even talking about postcount, although that too
    yeah i'm worried i'm falling into the recency trap here. i started to think manti was town when we were actually around and posting together. now para's here and we're talking and it fades away and i go back.

    but i don't think my townread on para right now is from recency or just because he's around and talking to me.

    his perspective is incredibly authentic here and the way he's forming reads (not just in contrast to manti, but in general) is really townie. because he's come in with one worldview, admits he doesn't know the 2nd scum, floats iaafr, takes it back, continues to defend both chemist and wws, was townreading ran but gets convinced by iaafr (and both of us?) that it's possible, and is now actually asking basically the same questions that we are

    and he's not doing this in a way that feels like wolf agenda of "feel out who i can get mislynched here", because he's defending potential mislynches, and the suspects he has given are iaafr which isn't a good mislynch to feel out if iaafr is town, and ran, which we talked about first

    Ranmilia do you disagree with this? Tell me why

    (And Para if you are scum you are doing a fantastic job and I will feel silly for being fooled after nearly getting there)
    Strong defense of Para again for a couple more posts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3174)
    and also para's confusion and meandering just feels townie. this is what i was not getting with para on day 2, probably because he wasn't in the thread much and he really did believe it was manti/112 (and he wasn't the only one, we all did), but this feels exactly like how we've worked together as town before, in particular the way he's disagreeing with me about the chemist stuff and the way he showed surprise i was feeling differently
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3221)
    Sorry Ranmilia I actually need to head out right now so I can't wait for your answer, though I trust you will give one and I still want to know it.

    But what I was going to say is:

    I am not going to say that I am invoking my authority as the designated Para-reader here and that you have to listen to me.

    But.

    I think Para is town.

    That is my read.

    I will not veto a shot on him.

    I don't know what I'd say about a lynch on him depending on how the shot goes.

    But my personal read is that he is town.

    And that has weight to it. I am putting my credibility on the line.

    And it has stakes because I know that if I am wrong and he flips scum, I will be mislynched.

    If Para's, he's fooled me and he's earned that.

    I am not at "Everyone must listen to me I am 100% sure about this" level and I won't tell you what to do. If you disagree with me, that is fine. There is a valid case. The Amy interactions look wolfy, being on the other wagon isn't good, etc. I see it all, it's valid. But I don't think it means he has to be scum, and I think his posts today are townie.

    I would not shoot Para today.
    Finally comes down hard that he's not going to vote Para D3

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3423)
    Psycho, if I can say something, I actually sort of agree with Iaafr here. You feel a bit stressed atm.

    My shot list is Wws/Chemist/Manti.

    Other people have their shot lists.

    I don't think you should shoot Para. You want to shoot Para.

    I will not judge you if you do.

    You think there are reasons for literally all 3 of my PoE to be town. You are not wrong. I have literally spent days accepting Chemist as town, and was willing to accept Manti as town as well for a lot of today and I still ultimately agree with Zack he is 3rd in line. Your cases are not bad. It's just, someone has to be scum.

    What Zack is saying is correct. Any shot in the PoE is understandable.

    If this was a lynch, I'd place my vote and I'd be happy with others placing theirs and trusting the process.

    It's not a lynch though, it's a shot. But that doesn't mean you need to freak out about this, and you can still trust the process.
    Shot list doesn't contain Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3483)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3480)
    ##Vote Paratroopa
    I can't say this is unjustified.

    I need to think about what the other options are now.
    His reaction after the shot. Concedes Para is a reasonable place to look and will reconsider.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3487)
    I'm annoyed because if Para was scum I came around to it yesterday but then changed my mind again today when he posted more. Maybe just because he was busy day 2 and was posting today so it was easier to see him as town.

    I said on day 2 that I couldn't stand in the way of his lynch but I really don't know if I can now. Para defended a wolf and voted on the town counterwagon after having some pretty lacking interactions with that wolf.

    But I don't think he is wolfy. If he's town, I guess the scum are cackling that they didn't vote WWS at all and Para will get lynched for it? (Or Iaafr is a wolf)
    But still thinks Para is town

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3491)
    My gut reaction right now would still be to vote Chem too but I honestly do not know if my townread of Para can even hold up or is even worth justifying.

    Iaafr what do you think
    Could be Para/Chem but leaning towards chem

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3503)
    If it's Para/Chem and we started this day there and then worked ourselves out of it I will feel stupid
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3510)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3508)

    I might be wrong on chemist, but if Para is town here I just don't even know man.
    you don't see how he can be town?

    the eod1 wagon placement and amy interactions are a huge black mark but i still think i feel the way i did earlier which is that his posts seem like town
    Trying to get me to see town!Para in this exchange

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3536)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3516)

    Like, on a base level, yes I understand that he can be town. His reactions to Manti's and iaafr's push D2 read fairly pure. He has a very tight POE like Zack said that he isn't really trying to bust out of. It doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

    BUT, his actions and interactions with Amy just way outweigh those posts for me. If Para's a wolf and both wolves are in our POE do you really think he can convince the town to lynch you or me or rabbit or Zack? And if the third wolf is deep then he absolutely should be keeping the POE small.
    Yeah, this is the exact dilemma I have as well. I was already thinking Para was town today before this so I naturally still want to hold on to that but you were still thinking he was scum so you lean that way.

    I will have to make a decision about this though I am already feeling it will be what I said which is "I am not voting Para but you can"
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3590)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3578)
    We now know for a fact it was tied scum vs town wagons. Dels and Soab (and Rabbit), you're now sussing a scumteam of Maple and Chemist? Two people who were on neither wagon, and both demonstrated opportunity that they easily could have been on either? Two people who both played in ways that could make them strong considerations, not just for cuddles in the immediate future, but for the shot?

    That world does not make very much sense to me at all.
    I've admitted that Para being scum is the most straightforward option and that even I can see the logic of "wolf defends buddy, votes town"

    That said, even if Para is scum, like Zack is saying, it should still be with Chemist and Chemist is still a wolf who got frozen and didn't know how to do EoD. Para/Manti is weird but even in that case Manti did move his vote around off wolves onto town and then left, which is not saving Amy no, but it's still possible for him to do it as wolf since it has no real impact.

    Or, of course, as you are suggesting, I am aware, the team can be Para/Iaafr in which case yes they literally just both voted WWS and that's that. And you're right, that is the true "easy world". I just really don't see why Chemist/Manti doing weird $#@! and ending up off-wagon means they have to be town, and I'm not seeing Iaafr as scum based on behaviour at all. Same with Para, but I guess to a lesser extent if only because his interactions with Amy are worse.

    In fact, there's a saying that statistically, scum are often more likely to be contained in the list of people who end a day off-wagon.

    Also when you say those two people played in ways that could make them strong considerations for the shot, aren't you saying the same sort of stuff we are saying about Para? That if he's a wolf, he would be playing in a way that makes himself a likely lynch?

    If Chemist is a wolf he didn't play in a way where he'd become a shot/lynch on purpose, he just genuinely got frozen and couldn't continue providing takes in a village of strong towns doing really in-depth work. If Manti's a wolf he's basically relying on you to think that and he's playing in a purposefully weird way which, well, that is his personality.
    Pushing Chem first over Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3660)
    Also Ranmilia, this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3515)
    If Paratroopa decided to put himself in an unwinnable corner and continue hard-defending his bro who was always going to die soon just to pocket me, then I'm fine being wrong and taking the win when he is inevitably cuddled.

    dels, I already made posts about the math and worlds that made sense to me before the shot. The result wasn't my preferred one, but it still is consistent with what seems to be a very winnable gamestate. I personally don't think it's paratroopa and so won't vote him, but it's certainly possible I'm wrong and I doubt he ever survives if he is a wolf.
    The first paragraph.

    If Para is a wolf, he is not making it out of this game.

    Even if we lynched Chemist today and Manti tomorrow, he would still be next.

    He cannot get out of this. There is literally nothing I or anyone else could do to stop him from being a lynch.

    So the issue is basically if Para is a wolf and isn't making it out of the game, who is his partner.

    You think this can be rabbit or myself, because you think chemist and Manti are town.

    So I guess when you resist lynching not-Para, it's less about the fact that it's just not-Para and more about it being on Chemist or Manti?

    I can't speak for myself but I can admit Para/Iaafr can make sense as a team just on a basic level of they voted WWS, and I don't think either of them have ever solidly gone after each other. Iaafr started today saying Para was scum but with chemist and ultimately went elsewhere, Para made a slight ping against Iaafr but didn't go anywhere with it.

    Para with Manti doesn't seem to make sense. Para with you is insanely weird and I know Iaafr is considering it but uh I really don't know. Para with Chemist makes sense as has been proven.

    Para with Zack or Mill Crab, well, sure Para/Zack is possible since Zack has defended Para, but same as with Para/Iaafr, I just don't think Zack or Iaafr are wolves. With one more town flip, they both drop down and I become more open to considering it because there are less options, but it's still not what I think.

    I'm not sure where I was going with this except that I am trying to find common ground here, so I am going to hit Post.
    Showing that Para doesn't make sense with anyone except chemist, so when chemist flips v he can clear Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3695)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3690)
    The fact that you think that chemist of all people is a better vote
    Urf.

    You really think it's stupid to have chemist as a wolf huh?

    My above post was to Ran but feel free to respond as well. I get why you think Chemist's play doesn't make sense as wolf but it just doesn't make sense to me as town either, and (and I know you've addressed this) but we've literally already had one wolf this game who did just genuinely not know what to say and ended up digging their hole deeper. Why isn't it possible for chemist to be the same situation?
    Going back and forth about chemist here. They spend so much time arguing about it that it would be weird if they were partnered and couldn't get on the same page.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3727)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3724)
    This implies that you think there's someone who could be a Chemist partner besides Manti unless you think that's just the exact team, which granted isn't impossible

    Ran, iaafr, MC are all at least POSSIBILITIES with an amy/manti team, none of them are absolutely perfect but they're definitely not out of the question entirely

    I mean you're a possibility too although for obvious reasons discussing that with you isn't likely to go far, but it's just interesting that you're trying to steer this towards chem over manti
    i'm not trying to "steer" it towards chemist over manti? i said where i was leaning with my vote but steer makes it sound like some sort of agenda to get the thread to follow me, which i hardly think i'm doing. i'm debating between both of them and i'm trying to see it your way. ultimately my vote is just my vote. everyone has opinions here and i respect them.

    and yeah, chemist/manti seems like the most likely team. i am torn between thinking its that, or thinking that is "too straightforward" in which i then have to suspect either you or ran, two people i've had doubts about but ultimately really don't want to scumread, or someone in the towncore. do you see my dilemma?

    but yes, you're right, if it's the hard world with one of iaafr/mc i'd be completely overlooking it now, and i admit ran is a possibility.
    Some distancing/arguing here about chemis tagain

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3774)
    i mean, you're not wrong about para. if he's a wolf, he literally unvoted you because you said "i wouldn't be a wagon as a wolf"

    this is why i said back on day 2 that i didn't think para was a wolf because as a wolf he wouldn't make such a limp play
    more defense

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3787)
    okay, my ability to think or read my screen is going away so i am going to

    ##Vote Chemist1422

    I made the choice to trust Para and I am sticking with it. If it is wrong, it is wrong. Ultimately this is a game and this is the move that I feel best making. If Para is town and I voted him here I'd feel like an idiot.

    I think the case on Ranmilia is valid and I see why people think Ranmilia's posts are overly stubborn in an agenda-y way and how the PoV of constantly insisting the thread is against them/not listening to them is sometimes overblown and maybe scum. Iaafr and zack's case is very convincing, hell I have literally made the same case myself multiple times, but I just think that good cases can be wrong sometimes and Ranmilia's posts are still pretty townie.

    Para I tried to listen to you about Manti and I still think Manti is a likely scum but I'm just not seeing chemist as town and I don't understand the town motivation for the eod1 and i think since then chemist's posts are easily fakeable and fit the range of a scum who has had trouble keeping up. if i'm wrong and you're right about chemist then sorry.

    I will keep reading and change this vote if needed but I think Chemist is the safest lynch today and I really don't want it to be Para or Ran.
    .

    Votes chemist

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3815)
    we have been over this a million times i feel >_>

    if para's a wolf he knows i know his meta and has to toe the line between doing the things i know he does, while also doing things that will, y'know, get him townread by everyone other than me

    i don't really think he's doing that and the vote/unvote on you is still one of my examples why. "##vote manti because uh no one else seems scummy" "you know as wolf i'd never get wagoned" "oh okay i guess i'll unvote" is like... the kind of play that gets you head tilts. same with earlier today when he first came in and tried to call iaafr your partner and then was like "uh no i guess not idk"
    defends Para because of his world view

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3816)
    oh, you meant does para "have the thought" of going hard after you? not the thought of playing around my knowledge of his wolf meta

    nevermind like i said i'm tired
    Realizes he's wrong and corrects himself

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3823)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3813)
    This is an interesting perspective, do you think my game HASN'T been 'under the radar' or 'sensible' so far?
    Well the fact that you voted WWS over Amy on day 1 meant that you were no longer able to go under the radar. and even on day 1, you did the standard "i don't have any reads" thing which gets you attention because of course it always does. yes, as a wolf, you'd need to do a bit of it to get me to townread you, but you could've found a scumread, it's not like i'd instantly call you a wolf just for having an actual read.

    When I say "sensible", I mean that as wolf I think you find progressions that make sense, that are consistent, that no one can really take issue with. I'm aware I'm exploding my knowledge of your wolf game here but I think as wolf you tend more to make straightforward progressions that any player can follow - because you want other people to be able to follow every step of it when they go back and ISO you after flips.

    so actually even though i think is misunderstood, the examples i just posted above are examples of where i think you have not had that "sensible" progression.

    as well as just your thoughts on wolf partner for manti here being like "iaafr i guess? but maybe ran i guess but maybe you and uh i guess mill crab is possible" which is also another example of you doing something you know would hurt you as wolf, and is not "sensible"
    Dels explaining why Para's play maybe isn't as sensible as he's been saying it was.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3942)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3915)
    That would require lynching into the core

    Para
    Ran
    Chem

    Like maybe there are two villagers there but I obviously don't think so
    I mean, I take it you don't think Para and Ran are together. So if it's in that list it basically has to be Para/Chem or Chem/Ran.

    I understand why you are voting Para but this is why I think Chem is a safer choice. Obviously though I am biased because I think Para is town
    Trying to get me off Para onto chem

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3959)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3939)

    I seriously don't know

    I thought rabbit was a good partner but it doesn't seem right after all

    It might be dels if dels is willing to randomly bus manti for some reason d1 but then backtrack and stick to chemist here but that doesn't seem right

    It might just have to be manti and ran
    that doesn't make sense for similar reasons though. i would be "randomly bussing manti d1" and then backtracking but if ran is scum then ran really tried to bus manti day 1

    i feel the easiest answer here is still manti and chem but obviously you don't agree with that, but then you're looking elsewhere and not being able to find anything that makes sense
    again trying to get Para to get on board with worlds that A) let him live, and B) push mislynches

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3963)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3953)

    Because literally every time rabbit posts it feels completely and utterly wrong to scumread him, I don't know else to put it, the one push against me yesterday I didn't like and he's the only possible wolf on amy but it just DOESN'T feel right. that's all I've got
    so why not chemist?
    Again trying to get him on chemist

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3983)
    I'm still happy where I am. Manti can be scum but still think this is a better choice. It could be Manti/Chem though. I'd vote Manti to save Para.

    If people want to vote Para I still understand and I feel I've done the most I can to defend him. I've made my decision though. Para if you are a wolf then well played and if you are town then I'm sorry if I should have done more.
    Really doesn't want Para lynched.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#4008)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#4003)
    Why doesn't town chem stick around with his neck on the line? I've seen him do it before
    yeah i guess

    ultimately my vote doesn't come down to understanding why chem does this as town or as wolf so it's not the biggest concern to me

    but i still think it's notable
    Agrees that chemist bailing again is NAGL
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#521)

    The Dels case builds itself fairly easily. He defended both of his partners D1 and staunchly fought the Para lynch for two more days. Today he'd have to come in doing what he's done, which is admit a mea culpa and have people think he's town to accept his lynch for defending both wolves as much as he has
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#4128)
    The case on Zack.

    This post, and the Dels/rabbit posts I hope to get out are going to focus mainly on how they treated Amy/Para.


    Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#324)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#318)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#314)
    I'm pretty sure Para has a history of defending LHF as town (sorry chemist).

    Unless I'm misremembering he did it for sheep in Mountainous Arson and I assume he's one of the reasons I had such a hard time lynching Cemeteries.
    Chemist isn't lhf though
    eh
    Easy w/w/w comment talking around chemist and why he is or isn't lhf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#335)
    112 seems like a wolf going after a ran mislynch

    amy seems a bit sus for raisins

    third thing
    The start of the amy push. It's nebulous and innocuous enough. Definitely possible as an early distance read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#351)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#343)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#335)
    112 seems like a wolf going after a ran mislynch

    amy seems a bit sus for raisins

    third thing
    Q: Has anyone here played mafia with Ran before

    I know them, but I haven't been in a game with them
    I believe they're from dels' homesite, so presumably he knows ran

    I know this because manti and i were talking about it earlier with dels in wolfchat
    More easy chatting with Para.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#357)
    Slimy Soab

    Dels
    Mill Crab

    Chemist1422
    Ranmilia

    CatgirlMaple
    iaafr
    Paratroopa

    Ampharos
    Psycho666Soldier*
    Visorslash*
    WaywardSon

    112
    FTFlush
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#363)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#220)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#64)
    i called mill crab a villager approximately five minutes ago

    but post#54 was wolfy, especially the way he referenced the post number instead of just quoting it
    Ah yes, it's true that only wolves index post numbers; villagers making $#@!ing giant walls of oblivion that are a nightmare to scroll through
    did you actually think i was being serious

    wtf
    Another easy back and forth with Para. Para's first real reply being to a $#@!post in a way that could be partnery.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#371)
    I can't even articulate my issue with amy's posts, or at least I don't care to

    she just seems like a wolf

    there's some vague non-controversial posts and a bunch of fluff. It's suspiciously non-controversial, actually.
    Is the trouble verbalizing it because Amy expressed burnout in wolf chat, gave the green light to bus, but she hadn't actually done anything actively wolfy yet? This is honestly the weakest part of my case.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#376)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#374)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#371)
    I can't even articulate my issue with amy's posts, or at least I don't care to

    she just seems like a wolf

    there's some vague non-controversial posts and a bunch of fluff. It's suspiciously non-controversial, actually.
    Is controversy normally a defining factor of Amy's posts? That doesn't sound like her from the times I've played with her
    maybe not the right word

    read the iso. there's thirty posts and none of them stood out to me, it's more bland than I would expect for a villager's first thirty. I don't mean they weren't enjoyable posts, they're just safe and not very interesting in talking about the game
    Another Para exchange. Here he's trying to get Para to do some work but isn't pushing him super hard to dig in.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#485)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#478)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#220)
    Ah yes, it's true that only wolves index post numbers; villagers making $#@!ing giant walls of oblivion that are a nightmare to scroll through
    I'm just gonna go ahead and say that I think PT is a wolf. His entrance ticked me the wrong way, his second post felt dgaf enough to be wolfy instead of slanky villager, and then after reading/skimming through 64 posts, this is what he chooses to respond too? I get not engaging with early $#@!posting at this point, but I feel whether you're a hunting town or a $#@!posty town, this is not the first post you point out unless you have a conclusion. It feels too innocuous.

    ##Vote Paratroopa

    Back to catching up.
    i mean that post clearly bothered/annoyed him so i understand him stopping to call it out, even if I think it's a bit silly/wtf to take such umbrage to what was essentially a meaningless $#@!post
    Defends Para here. Good job Psycho on the entrance read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#489)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#487)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#485)
    i mean that post clearly bothered/annoyed him so i understand him stopping to call it out, even if I think it's a bit silly/wtf to take such umbrage to what was essentially a meaningless $#@!post
    It kind of felt like a $#@!post-y annoyance to me, but I can definitely read it the way you took it now that you've said it.

    That said, it still bothers me.
    you taking issue with him responding to that but not any of the preceding posts seems like nitpicking when the reason why he responded to that post seems kind of obvious?

    which of those posts do you think were worth mentioning? I think they were pretty forgettable / normal page 1 nonsense
    Shades psycho a bit when he continues to press the issue. I'm pretty sure my Dels vote was unforgettable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#549)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#547)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#545)
    This....

    ...is an entrance.
    If this is how wolf-visor chooses to enter a game I'm going to be like

    intensely confused
    i don't think it's really alignment indicative of him
    Slapping Para's wrist lightly for the Visor read but doesn't push it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#561)
    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#559)
    Hi zack, what's crackin'
    my posts are kind of bad and i don't care to rectify the situation even as i gaze wistfully at the n1 kill falling out of my grasp

    I have a dank wolf soulread on amy
    Setting himself up to explain why he's still alive after N1

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#766)
    Slimy Soab - hot one

    Dels
    iaafr

    Mill Crab
    Paratroopa
    Psycho666Soldier
    Ranmilia

    CatgirlMaple
    Chemist1422

    112
    Ampharos
    FTFlush
    Visorslash
    WaywardSon

    ----

    order in tiers is just alphabetical

    feel pretty meh about it
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#814)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#806)
    as an aside i'm not pinged by the push so that's nice at least
    I don't really understand this comment

    it seems out of sorts with the rest of this post and your followup
    The Amy push begins in earnest. This is probably the weakest part of the case against him because the back forth and Amy playing dumb feels genuine. It isn't impossible that before she reentered the thread she gave Zack the go ahead to bury her because the wagons were 4/2/2/2 Amy/112/Para/WWS when she came back. The wagons move to 4/2/2/2 WWS/112/Para/Amy over the 20 minutes here, so there was time for Zack to abort if they were paired.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#819)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#817)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#814)
    I don't really understand this comment

    it seems out of sorts with the rest of this post and your followup
    i can think something is a bad push without thinking something is a wolfy push

    and i generally try to draw a bad vs wolfy dichotomy when people push on me because i've caught scum off that before and it feels real nice
    can you explain why you thought the push was bad but not wolfy?
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#823)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#821)
    the points he brings up in the post are things that i think it's reasonable for a villager to be looking at
    "i legitimately don't know what this means"

    "i thought this was a fairly obvious jokepost. and i'm not sure why you quoted the other one"

    that doesn't seem to line up with what I quoted

    I don't understand what you're saying --> thought that was an obvious joke and idk why you quoted that --> these are reasonable things for a villager to be looking at

    ??
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#835)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#826)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#823)
    "i legitimately don't know what this means"

    "i thought this was a fairly obvious jokepost. and i'm not sure why you quoted the other one"

    that doesn't seem to line up with what I quoted

    I don't understand what you're saying --> thought that was an obvious joke and idk why you quoted that --> these are reasonable things for a villager to be looking at

    ??
    yeah but me voting you looks super weird if you don't realize it's a jokepost, which he apparently didn't

    i'm assuming there was some point about my entrance that got lost in translation or something because it got worded super awkwardly

    and while he didn't explain why he quoted my para post (hence my statement) it did seem to get a lot of response from the peanut gallery so it makes sense to look at as a fairly contentious sort of thing
    I mean I guess? but you thought it was an "obvious joke" (and I agree) so I don't follow the idea that it's reasonable to misinterpret something obvious. My reaction to that was "uh, what?" not "yeah that's reasonable"

    and you are assuming it comes from a reasonable place when you literally don't even understand what was being said

    idgi
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#842)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#838)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#835)
    I mean I guess? but you thought it was an "obvious joke" (and I agree) so I don't follow the idea that it's reasonable to misinterpret something obvious. My reaction to that was "uh, what?" not "yeah that's reasonable"

    and you are assuming it comes from a reasonable place when you literally don't even understand what was being said

    idgi
    idk man i'm starting to think missing obvious jokes is a villager trait just based off the sheer number of people that have done it this game

    like how the $#@! am i supposed to read that

    i can't scumread it i'd lose my mind
    I'm not saying you should scumread it, or even that the push was wolfy. I just don't think your "this push is bad but not wolfy" doesn't make much sense as a conclusion based on your given reasoning
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#851)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#847)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#842)
    I'm not saying you should scumread it, or even that the push was wolfy. I just don't think your "this push is bad but not wolfy" doesn't make much sense as a conclusion based on your given reasoning
    usually when i'm looking for wolfy pushes i'm looking for blatant misrepresentation or reachy bull$#@!. i didn't see any of psycho's post as blatant misrepresentation or reachy bull$#@!.

    idk how many other ways i can word it
    idk his interpretation of that joke post seemed like reachy bull$#@! but whatever
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#868)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#862)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#851)
    idk his interpretation of that joke post seemed like reachy bull$#@! but whatever
    Are you off psycho then or what's going on here? Because I can't tell if you're still pushing amy right now or flipping on psycho.
    I'm fine with psycho, I already said as much

    I'm pointing out that "there was no reachy bull$#@!" when psycho shaded a clear joke as if it was serious doesn't make sense. You can say it isn't wolfy, but it definitely falls within the purview of "reachy bull$#@!"
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#872)
    amy's response post to psycho's multi-quotes is straight wolfy imo

    their posts are trying to get the heat off with very little in the way of gamesolving
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#886)
    I don't think "manti should have done more by now" is a good way to read him and I'm surprised para made that read

    He does largely nothing a huge amount of the time as a villager in my experience with him
    Shades Para for voting Manti the way he does, but doesn't really follow up on it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#898)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#896)
    mmm

    nah

    ##Vote Slimy Soab

    i've explained my thinking. i think it makes sense. it feels like you're just being intentionally obstinate here

    and the "she's just trying to get heat off without solving the game" point is bull$#@!, because i SAID that i wasn't caught up and that i was gonna look at the votes on me first. you're wolfreading me for something i SAID i was gonna do

    nah this is straight nonsense dude
    I'll just point out that lashing out at someone pushing you is one of the easiest things to do as a wolf

    And that your read is silly.
    The tone on Amy's vote falls flat for me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#902)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#900)
    like iaafr's scumread on him was pretty lolparanoia but this push on me feels pretty forced

    can see a world where he felt the need to re-establish the mislynch after i came back to thread and a couple of people unvoted
    Interesting strategy for me to re-establish a lunch I'm not even voting for
    Yeah maybe this egging on here is laying it on too thick for them to be partnered.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#923)
    I find amy's push on me fallacious but don't want to bog down the thread in a pointless back and forth about it. if she's a villager, it would be a more productive use of her time to catchup or read my full iso to better develop a read on me than verbal sparring over the validity of her push on me.
    A sideways push to get Amy to come back in the thread to contribute.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#927)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#917)
    Okay, I needed to make sure because i'm like

    sort of struggling to see from wolf-amy's point of view how pushing zack of all people is going to help her here at all

    a counterpush on a more sensible wagon might have made sense but getting flustered here is basically just blundering her way into a d1 lynch and I feel like she's savvy enough to know better
    it reminded me of a game earlier this year where I (as a wolf) made a similar push on ladd who probably had similar odds of actually being lunched there as I do here

    Quote Originally Posted by ladd (#1237)
    Quote Originally Posted by Zapp Brannigan (#1228)
    I thought I was wolfy for having no fire
    yes

    going hard at someone who pushes you is one of easiest things to do as a wolf

    i was talking more about solving fire, not necessarily getting angry or anything like that
    Pulls up a previous game to explain the Amy read to Para and the exchange between the two of them is again kinda empty.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#948)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#941)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#937)
    the thing is she can't rely on people like me and para existing to say these things

    from her pov the most likely thing is people would just say "oh you're not posting reads, you're omgusing, die"
    cool now I don't have to make the same exact point

    I mean it's possible that it's just wolf-amy being super flustered but I feel like if she were a wolf she'd have... something else going on, someone to coordinate with and make a different push, I dunno

    instead she's relying on me making a pretty tenuous townread of her based on her getting mad at zack?
    I mean do you really think her vote is still going to be on my at eod. I'm not a serious lunch candidate.

    it's dangerous to assume wolves are always planning out and executing the most rational, logical course of action with surgical precision. sometimes wolfy behavior is just wolfy behavior.

    and dels, I don't see why it matters whether or not she said she was going to give reads. It's still a bad look to barely spend any time solving the game.
    eh, this would a bit odd and on the nose to be w/w because they would totally be executing the most rational, logical course of action with surgical precision.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#959)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#952)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#948)
    I mean do you really think her vote is still going to be on my at eod. I'm not a serious lunch candidate.

    it's dangerous to assume wolves are always planning out and executing the most rational, logical course of action with surgical precision. sometimes wolfy behavior is just wolfy behavior.

    and dels, I don't see why it matters whether or not she said she was going to give reads. It's still a bad look to barely spend any time solving the game.
    I don't really care where her vote is going to be at eod, that's a non-sequitur - what matters is where it's going to make us place votes and the answer seems to be pretty clearly "on her"

    I mean I know I'm potentially wifoming myself out of that exact situation but whatever
    is it really any more likely that a villager decides the best play is to make a throwaway vote on me, try to start another argument about it, then leave?

    in particular I hated the "then how come I didn't push back at psycho?!" defense. It's such a classic wolf line/logic.
    Doubling down on the Amy read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#967)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#961)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#959)
    is it really any more likely that a villager decides the best play is to make a throwaway vote on me, try to start another argument about it, then leave?

    in particular I hated the "then how come I didn't push back at psycho?!" defense. It's such a classic wolf line/logic.
    villagers don't really care about how things look as much

    I don't remember if it was her or someone else that pointed out the psycho thing first?
    that's not what I meant and i'm surprised you interpreted it that way

    she gave up on catching up, didn't bother to read my iso (and presumably there are lots of my posts she hasn't read if she didn't catch up), didn't really look into developing any reads, just threw down a vote on me based on bad reasons. that's not any more normal village play than wolf play
    Again expressing confusion on how Para interpreted something but not following up on it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1114)
    Slimy Soab

    Dels
    iaafr
    Mill Crab
    Ranmilia

    Chemist1422
    Paratroopa
    Psycho666Soldier

    112
    CatgirlMaple
    Visorslash

    FTFlush
    WaywardSon

    Ampharos
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1139)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1146)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1143)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1141)
    Viewing it through the lense of someone who would have hated a wolf rand, I think that's in line.

    Granted, i only read 5 posts in either direction of her voting
    eh i think wolves tend to not quite be that sloppy out of obligation to teammates

    basically im parroting para's sentiments from around when it occurred now which i disagreed with at the time but it makes sense
    i'm surprised you both apparently think so little of ampharos as a villager that you think their bad wolfy posts are somehow too bad to be wolfy
    Uh, this is kinda a good point actually

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1188)
    how many times are you going to iso wws
    Antagonizing Amy a bit more. End of D1 and while I can force things into a wolf!Zack world, it's kinda hard to make it work.

    Day 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1403)
    Also that seems like a manti kill.
    Starts off pinning the Visor kill on Manti.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1411)
    Amy iso'd wws a million times and kept trying to push the lunch onto him. I'd be surprised if that is w/w.
    Calls wws not w/w but he ends up there right before Psycho shoots.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1436)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#1408)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1402)
    Hate this post, feels like intentional fishing for a derp clear
    Hate this post, feels like making stuff up about another post to cast shade on known townie 112.
    You actually think I could be a wolf after d1?
    No I don't, but the D2-D3 play is more suspect.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1446)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#285)
    112 can be town, I think.

    2 down.
    this was never explained.
    Using Amy spew to start pushing a 112 read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1459)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1229)
    --felt good--
    112
    Dels
    iaafr
    Psycho666Soldier

    --felt decent--
    CatgirlMaple
    Chemist1422
    Mill Crab
    Paratroopa
    Slimy Soab (tilt notwithstanding)

    --???--
    FTFlush
    Ranmilia
    Visorslash

    --WaywardSon--
    WaywardSon

    this legacy is garbage but it's here
    i’d be somewhat surprised if the bottom four were all villagers
    Narrator: they were

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1482)
    the two recent wolf games i’m looking at amy starts off with a joke vote on a tammate

    i propose we ignore how her first vote in this game was a joke vote on me
    NAGL

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1483)
    i think the likeliest team is 112/para
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1488)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1483)
    i think the likeliest team is 112/para
    meh idk
    Throws Para in a team but immediately backs off the kill

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1490)
    i’m not sure how that kill happens if para and manti are both villagers
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1492)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1490)
    i’m not sure how that kill happens if para and manti are both villagers
    or flush i suppose?
    Again throws Para in a "There should be a wolf here" and then throws in villager!Flush.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1548)
    Slimy Soab

    Dels
    iaafr
    Mill Crab
    Psycho666Soldier

    Chemist1422
    FTFlush
    Ranmilia
    WaywardSon

    CatgirlMaple
    Paratroopa

    112

    ---

    this almost feels too easy
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1568)
    dels, you seem to know para well - do you think he would go out on a limb like that persistently defending amy from me as a wolf?
    Talks with Dels a bit to get his opinion on whether Para could be wolfing here or not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1583)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#715)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#706)
    Town
    Dels - Said multiple times but very open with his process, giving unprompted thoughts, just don't see evil intent behind his posts
    Psycho666Soldier - Very solid posting overnight. I've been digging his analysis, and personally think how he's progressed on me has come from a towny place
    Ranmilia - Liked the early stuff explaining their Chem/Mill reads, I think this most recent post about 112 shows them taking different environments into account and adjusting reads accordingly. I love that and I think given 112 has drawn some heat that taking the time to town case 112 is a good look.
    iaafr - Feels very similar to town!rabbit I've played with. Does a lot of jumping around, but when he hits on a new world, his reasoning tends to track well (when provided) and I appreciated that he was willing to give me some space to breathe and do my thing (even though he's back to scum reading me)
    Slimy Soab - Trending down a bit mainly due to the read being older, but I liked Zack's attitude this game, and I've liked how he's probed into rabbit and others. Feels like the Cop light game we played in.


    Town lean
    Chemist1422 - Dropped a bit since he hasn't done a ton lately, but I liked the paranoia about getting lots of town reads for his early push on me. Slightly worried that he may be coasting but definitely not today.
    112 - pending an ISO but reading Dels', Psycho's, and Ran's POV's has me doubting my scum read I had on them. I'm leaning on my core on this one.
    Paratroopa - Had some good pings early but I've also not really remembered much about what he's posted. Partially sheeping Dels.


    Null
    CatgirlMaple - Uh, Manti has posted. The random called shots he's making remind me of the same cop game I was in with Zack, and he was town there. Should ISO but I don't think I'm a good Manti reader.
    FTFlush - I can't remember anything he's posted. Gonna stare at his ISO.
    Visorslash - hope whatever's going on IRL ends up ok. Wouldn't stand in the way of his lynch but not a priority either.


    Scum Lean
    Ampharos - I think I let phone skimming/joking with Amy cloud my view a bit on her. iaafr forced me to actually go back and look at her content, and I was having a hard time coming up with what actually was making me nod along to her posts. Psycho's ISO also I think was well put together and helped me reconsider what I had initially liked about her Dels read.
    WaywardSon - I don't like that he only posted softball questions at Amy. I feel like he isn't really trying to get into the game and solve it or figure out his null reads. My biggest concern is that every time I wolf read him he's a villager.

    I've been burned enough by WWS that I'd rather go here
    ##Vote Ampharos

    If the nulls don't contain the rest of the wolf team, I could see 112, chemist, or Zack being a wolf that slipped into my town reads.
    I actually came in here to
    ##Vote Ampharos and leave abruptly,
    so I like this.

    @Dels - which post are you referring to when you say 'Ram's big post'?
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#717)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#714)
    I wouldn't lynch Visor if he doesn't post again btw. IRL stuff is fair, and it's not that I'm giving a day pass; if I thought his posts so far were wolfy I'd be open to lynching him, but I don't see a reason to suspect him yet, and we have other options.
    I'd actually like to just give Visor a pass for today tbh. We can evaluate him better once he's able to play and have fun with us.
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#720)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#718)
    oh hi 112
    oh hay!
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#725)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#716)
    Oh lol I forgot I had taken some notes.

    @WaywardSon why was Amy the only person you asked all those questions to?

    @112 I gave town points to chemist for being pinged by all the townreads he was being given, same as Paratroopa. But you had me as town and Para as a wolf. But I'm also trending down for you for ??? reasons. So A) why did Para get a call out for townreading Chem there but not me, and B)explanation for your progression on me please?
    I called Para out for the post in question because tonally it was a little off and it moreover didn't make sense to get any strong ping from what he was quoting.

    My progression on you- well, you were out of the thread for a bunch of hours when I said you were trending down, so there was maybe a bit of recency bias involved in it- otherwise, I was (am) town-reading other players more strongly than you, and it sort of jettisoned you into the PoE. I've never had a strong read on you either way this game, though- my progression has been 'oh, I like Mill's early posts, probably town maybe' to 'wow Crab Man hasn't been here in a while- NAI, so w/e' to reading over some of the early stuff you said and having second thoughts. I don't remember specifically what I looked back on because tbh I just skim things and share mild thoughts when I have them sometimes.

    :/
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#729)
    maybe Mill's wolf actually. hm.
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#734)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#727)
    the big first one against me. 118
    first of all i can't get over how much i don't like the tone of it- quick transitions, seems like it's not genuine, etc.- tough to articulate like some of your reads, but that's how it is.

    otherwise i made this post about it earlier in the day phase:
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#417)
    idk maybe i should've just said what i don't like about the whole post.

    i think if they were serious about the dels push, they'd be pushing harder instead of sandwiching the dels read in between wishy-washy nothing paragraphs.

    if you're serious about making a push, you're going to persuade and write things with a focus entirely on the subject you're wolf-reading, not write something sorta scathing and then wrap it up by talking about light town-reads.

    i guess what i really didn't like about the post is it's just structured in a way that seems to come from a wolf mindset:

    1. justify RVS votes with unfalsiable stuff people are just going to accept because there's nothing else to do with it
    2. list a bunch of stuff scumread x has done in the game without adding commentary and hoping that simply describing their actions is enough
    3. call to arms! 'town, do /this/' - easy way to look helpful, easy way to seem interested in setting up a game-plan or town strategy, just easy.

    it's just verbatim how i'd write a post when i'm scum. (of course i'm not ram.) i know the literal words are there to say they're pushing dels, but i don't see conviction behind the read.
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#735)
    yeah, 'wishy-washy' wasn't the right term.
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#736)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#732)
    Have you read his catch up posts from today?
    no, actually, just most of the big one where he votes Amp.
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#738)
    I READ SOME OF HER POSTS AND DIDN'T LIKE THEM
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#740)
    i actually have an appointment i need to leave for, will return with game solved
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#742)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#738)
    I READ SOME OF HER POSTS AND DIDN'T LIKE THEM
    specifically- someone quoted i think 3 ampharos posts last night before i went to bed, and i slept on 'em, waking up to a bitter taste in my mouth.
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#809)
    ##Vote WaywardSon
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#871)
    I actually agree with WWS on his amp/catgirl/ftf susses.
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#970)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#948)
    I mean do you really think her vote is still going to be on my at eod. I'm not a serious lunch candidate.

    it's dangerous to assume wolves are always planning out and executing the most rational, logical course of action with surgical precision. sometimes wolfy behavior is just wolfy behavior.

    and dels, I don't see why it matters whether or not she said she was going to give reads. It's still a bad look to barely spend any time solving the game.


    quoted all of 112's d1 posts from when she voted amy (which I remember coming out of nowhere) and afterward

    the switch back to wws is disconnected from the words she is saying around it
    The bulk of his 112 case. Which looked reasonable at the time but was wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1588)


    this is opportunistic as hell
    Pushing 112's voting history

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1595)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1587)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1568)
    dels, you seem to know para well - do you think he would go out on a limb like that persistently defending amy from me as a wolf?
    i think it makes sense that he'd do it as town - he had basically the same reaction as me, which was "would amy really fall apart like this as a wolf" and that's totally in line with his playstyle

    he does know that i'd expect him to react like that, so he might feel like he can get away with it, not only "can get away with" but might feel he has to do it, because if he just jumped on her and was like "oh yeah, this is easy" i'd probably find that weird since as town he'd never vote for something that looks like it could be an lhf mislynch (even after she flips wolf)

    unfortunately the knowledge i have of para's wolfgame doesn't really include if he defends partners or busses them. what i can say is whichever he decides, i think he commits to it and leaves a clear progression. he'd make it clear where he stands so that he can't be accused of being hedgey or seeming like he was keeping options open.

    and as wolf, he really does not like to do things that he knows will make him look bad, and i think this clearly makes him look bad.

    sorry that's not a great answer, but essentially what i'm saying is "maybe, but if so, it's really sloppy"
    I was skimming through Newcomb's marson iso for some reason last night, and did notice he (correctly) townread para and part of that was para making what sounded like a very similar townread on wolf!lissa in that game as he made on wolf!amy this one

    and I agree that it doesn't seem to quite fit with how a wolf would have defended amy, especially when para knows my style and how tenacious I can be with a suspect.

    All that said, I'm not sure if I can get to a comfortable village read on him today. At least not until he posts.
    Continues the conversation with Dels about Para, brings up Newcomb and Marson and how he got to a town read there. Shows some hesitancy in dropping a town read on him before he comes back.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1603)
    I'm at 112/manti with an outside chance at para taking the manti spot

    going to take a break for a bit
    Has Para just outside his POE

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1609)
    Slimy Soab

    Dels
    FTFlush
    iaafr
    Mill Crab
    Psycho666Soldier
    Ranmilia
    WaywardSon

    Chemist1422

    Paratroopa

    CatgirlMaple

    112

    ---

    just as a glimpse of where I stand atm

    I just kept adding names to the top group and kept feeling fine about it lol

    and yes, the bottom four are all separate tiers
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1636)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#986)
    Quote Originally Posted by FTFlush (#984)
    But yeah i literally just wolfed with 112 and they seem pretty stuck in the same ways
    so idm ending up there
    can you be specific?
    pretty bizarre post if para/112 are w/w
    Fairly easy not w/w read to make between a villager and a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1843)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1822)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1816)
    Definitely town:

    Dels - Dels's perspective has seemed like town Dels pretty much the entire game and I've barely seen anything that would make me believe otherwise so I'm ready to lock clear this one.

    Psycho - Conversation flow felt extremely natural last night, went onto Amy, don't really have any doubts here.

    Mill Crab - Was on Amy, I know he had some really good town-perspective stuff that I'm forgetting right now, seems extremely unlikely to be wolf.

    Definitely town but uhhh?:

    Zack - Zack should like, basically never be a wolf here, but I can't help be like WEEEOO WEEEOO for me that he didn't die last night and that Visor is exactly the kind of kill he would have to make if he was a wolf. This isn't like GH in finals though 'cause GH was leading us off a damn cliff and Zack has been a beacon of sanity this game and dunked a wolf. Zack/Amy is such an unlikely w/w pairing that it's basically $#@!ing stupid to consider, like Zack had so many opportunities to NOT get Amy lynched especially after I found a reason to read Amy town

    Seems town:

    Flush - I hate making reads based on how mad someone gets but Flush has attacked d2 with a furor that I think pretty much always comes from town? Really agree with his EOD analysis. Not suspicious of his 112 wolfread anymore. Just looks way better today.

    ???

    WWS - I think I probably have to take the L on this one, I came to the same conclusion that Flush did on this that them being w/w doesn't really pass muster - they cross-voted each other instead of trying to find some other counterwagon (manti? flush? 112? me?) and there was just really no need for them to do that. The fact that they re-entered the thread almost simultaneously is like, too comical to be wolf partners. In a vacuum I don't really like WWS's posts but this world seems dumb.

    Chemist - It's really hard for me to see the wolf motivation in how he played last night's eod. The Dels vote followed by the unvote is really $#@!in' weird but he had ample opportunity to save Amy at pretty much any point and didn't. COULD have just been frozen but I don't think there's really any reason to be when not voting almost looks worse.

    iaafr - The only reason I even have iaafr this low is because it feels like there should be at least one wolf between 112/iaafr, the WWS wagon being clean feels like a strict unlikelihood unless WWS was w, which, again, I don't think really makes any sense. I just don't think it's iaafr, though, his game flow has been pretty much exactly what I expected to see from him and I think the way he moves around his suspicions would be really hard to fake as wolf. He also top posted.

    Ranmilia - POE I guess. It's not impossible for me to see the wolfy agenda in Ran's posts but I sort of doubt it.

    Kinda just has to be these two unless I $#@!ed up somewhere?

    Manti - I don't really know what Manti is doing in this game but if he's town he's doing like absolutely nothing to show it. I don't remember he and Amy having any real interactions, I feel like Manti could have done more to save Amy but meh.

    112 - Had some stuff that felt good to me on d1 but I've been had before on this. I just don't think it's reasonable that there's no wolves on the WWS wagon and 112 seems like a plausible Amy partner.
    You got 5 reads over null, and 6 reads under null, with 4 of those reads supposedly being close to rand.

    Your most talkative reads are the ones closest to center, and your least talkative reads are the ones you should supposedly have the most conviction for.

    Mafia look to be needing either 4 or 5 mislynches, depending.

    Nice post, though. I actually read it
    Wolfy post
    Chainsaws Manti

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2100)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1843)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1822)
    You got 5 reads over null, and 6 reads under null, with 4 of those reads supposedly being close to rand.

    Your most talkative reads are the ones closest to center, and your least talkative reads are the ones you should supposedly have the most conviction for.

    Mafia look to be needing either 4 or 5 mislynches, depending.

    Nice post, though. I actually read it
    Wolfy post
    this is a nonsensical accusation, and the indirect suggestive way it's presented is wolfy as sin. oh look para is doing weird things and his readslist talks more about people in the middle! So? Who cares? Even if para is a wolf this is ridiculous shade. I think it's one of the wolfiest posts in the thread (by anyone)

    I also hated his shade about para's wim or whatever. Make an actual case you cowardly wolf

    i'm tunneled on 112 so to me it felt transparently like trying to shift the lunch away from 112 while trying to be subtle or something

    I actually don't care to say anything else. maybe this manti case seems underwhelming but post #1822 seemed outrageously wolfy to me

    actually wait, a couple people have made a point of saying wws isn't necessarily clear. Yeah I'm not saying he's lock clear. I just don't think he's a wolf. He could be one, sure. I just don't think that's the case.

    I'm having trouble seeing worlds other than 112/manti. If I'm wrong and cruelly still alive then I'll re-evaluate at that point but I gotta see flips, especially 112

    good night, I won't be around for awhile
    Doubles down on the chainsaw before leaving for the night.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2101)
    Oh I somehow forgot to mention that I think only specifically manti kills visor. This is a meta read that probably doesn't hold much weight with anyone but yeah

    If those posts seemed weirdly passionate it's because I was stewing on it in the car during awful traffic, then stewing on it more in the shower

    Please don't be rustled I just got excited to drop the bomb
    Again frames Manti for the Visor kill

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2228)
    lunchin para before 112 is absolute insanity

    wtf are you doing
    Comes back in the afternoon to find 3/3/2 wagons of 112/Para/Manti and is not happy about it at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2232)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#2222)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2010)
    i read "yeah in all my other town games i just write "buh I dunno" on all the players I'm iffy on" as possibly defending against the accusation of hedginess showing up in posts?

    but his observations were more about the amount of reads under null (compared with the amount of mislynches scum need), which is kind of related but not the same
    Potentially good catch by Manti. Definitely a thing I've done as a wolf where the middle reads get the most attention.
    ???.???
    Doesn't like that I agreed with Manti's take. And as $#@!ty as that push was iyo it's something I totally got called out for as a wolf in the mentor game.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2262)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2121)
    @Slimy Soab Have you shared any opinions of Para? What do you think of Mill Crab's ISO and Dels recent post about him?
    i tend to side more with dels on this one

    but if i’m wrong about 112/manti, clean up on wws and para should win the game i imagine
    Sides with Dels but leaves Para in the POE.

    D2 ends with the hammer and Zack kept finding ways to keep Para out of his POE or high in the POE and out of danger.

    Day 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2460)
    Manti's posts and reads still seem agenda'd to me. And the hammer is exactly the type of thing he'd do because people let him get away with it. R way he is browbeating dels about his read is on stark contrast to the usual "there's no intelligent reason to townread me" kind of things manti always says when he's town

    That said eod1 makes a lot of sense if wws and chemist are wolves

    I guess I'll look at ftf to see where his reads differed from mine. Who the $#@! makes that kill after killing visor n1 tho lol. Tf
    Starts on Manti, WWS, and Chemist as his possible wolves, with Para dropping out of the POE and chemist slotting in.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2466)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2459)
    One big issue I had with para is that they were pushing me for all the wrong reasons
    Interesting point from the guy who pushed para for having slightly longer explanations on the middle parts of his reads list
    More chainsaw defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2471)
    Manti hammering almost feels like an intentional play to prevent para from re-entering the thread

    It helps his narrative a lot
    Slamming Manti for the hammer. which if I was with Para I'd be pissed too that he couldn't get back into the thread and Manti continues the WIM push.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2483)
    I have been defending ran a lot, too

    Not sure if I get there on a ran=wolf read but I'll think about it some more

    Now that I think about it the way they talked about/treated Amy d1 was a bit funny iirc

    I'm going to end up re-reading this stupid thread instead of sleeping, watching football, or playing note aren't I. Sigh
    Thinking about Ran wolf as a possibility.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2493)
    Oh right

    Chemist tmi'd 112 I think. He did seem like a wolf who didn't understand why all the villagers were scum reading her.
    Pushing Chem for townreading 112 when no one else did.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2505)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2501)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2477)
    They also collectively had the power to lynch me or ftf d1 if that's the case.
    but then what happens when you flip town and people say "so wait, amy and wws were the other two wagons, they were both scumreading each other, yet they both voted manti instead"?

    or same with ftf

    zack made the argument that if they were scum they didn't need to build their progressions onto each other earlier. but by EoD, they had, so it'd be really weird if they diverged.
    If it's w/w, then write it down as Example number 400 why excessive distancing is stupid
    Potentially TMI'ing that amy and wws were w/v

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2507)
    I can't find any reason why ftf was killed unless ran is a wolf.
    I think flush was killed for several reasons. He was a loud voice who would have pushed for Para yesterday. He was off the Amy wagon and Zack needed to keep Psycho and myself alive as long as possible. You get the bonus of framing Ran because he had locked in the shot on them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2536)
    Let's think about chemist/wws team now

    Eod1 makes a ton of sense, their bad day two dropoffs make sense, chemist's weird wws thing makes sense.
    Para still out of the POE, focusing on chem/wws

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2539)
    And Amy could have influenced the n1 kill. She definitely knows visor.
    Floating a way to make the Visor kill fit this world.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2545)
    Yeah I believe chemist is a wolf a lot here

    Think wws makes the most sense as his bro
    committed to the chem/wws world. for now

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2547)
    It's potentially not bad to shoot para anyways to resolve that slot and because he'd be a way more useful cleared villager
    Does float Para as a shot option

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2557)
    It's odd for wws to have the d2 he did coming off the high of killing a wolf and winning the rand between him and a wolf, no?
    Shades wws for being less pumped at SOD2

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2578)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2572)
    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#1274)
    There was but he was afraid to make the vote.

    ##Vote Chemist1422
    the way he projects confidence similarly on all his reads

    doesnt care to make anything sound good

    toan toan toan toan toan toan toan toan toan
    It seems like fake bravado to me

    He had barely read the thread by his own admission when he called Amy an obvious wolf or whatever
    Again shading wws for being so confident on Amy

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2598)
    dels what's the difference that made you so confident para was a villager in marson but kinda meh on him here?
    Pushes Dels to explain why he's less sure about Para here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2607)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2602)
    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#2597)
    From what I have read of the game, either of the 2 that have a vote on them could be a wolf. Wasn't Chem confident on 112 being town? And has manti tried to bury me yet?
    yes, but they started to buy zack's burial of 112 in the second half of the day. still not very convincing behavior around a supposedly decently strong townread.

    my vote on manti is not serious ftr. manti has not tried to bury anyone, is just in exploratory mode and recently got bored because we're circling around you/chem/112/manti over and over in the same way.

    i believe the scum are chemist and paratroopa.
    I don't recall a reason for the townread either
    Again shading Chem for townreading 112

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2618)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1758)
    hottest take: FTF/112 is v/v and wolves are coasting by
    I think this lazy v/v read is rather wolfy

    but if chemist is a wolf he was coasting by and this post is oddly self-aware and brazen
    Shades flush/112 for making a lazy v/v read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2636)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2630)
    new thought experiment: who's para's partner if it's not chem

    mc you seem to be defaulting to me

    which is kinda lolzy idk man but then again i might tinfoil zack in that world which is kinda lolzy

    ranmilia's entertained a para/dels world

    very impressive game if so, dont think thats what it is tho

    and then para/manti seems weird too because d1/d2 and i also just individually townread manti rn

    so its just para/wws?

    would have to be

    people sussing and pushing para: me/manti/mc/psycho/ranmilia
    people defending para (at least d2): dels/zack
    people with little para progression: wws/chem
    if para was going to defend his teammates this much, he could have gotten away with putting chemist higher on his readslist no?

    and he also didn't really leave himself anywhere to go yesterday with his two person POE with two wolves left. I understand he could pivot to something else today, and that he could have further been trying to glom onto me/dels or whatever, but it seems like every time I've seen a wolfy person in the POE make reads that put themselves in a corner like that, they end up being villagers.
    Starts to build the "Para has nowhere to push" defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2637)
    @Dels didn't you say something about para liking to make low-info kills yesterday?
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2649)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2647)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2637)
    @Dels didn't you say something about para liking to make low-info kills yesterday?
    yes
    Can you see him making these?
    Asks Dels whether Para could make the Visor kill. Don't remember if drew anything from this line.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2653)
    Para's d1 visor and chemist reads look bad the more I think about them
    Sussing Para.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2661)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#2659)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2654)
    mc whats your thoughts on the likelihood of para/chem being the exact team
    Low likelihood because I'm still stuck on the EOD1 stuff for chemist plus Amy's posts. I can understand on a logical level what people are saying about wolf!chemist in a w/v world, it's just difficult for me to get into that mindset because it's not how wolf!me would have handled it.

    I think part of the mental block is that would mean I was also correct in my WWS read for once and so I'm biased to make that same read for chemist.
    I like to think of it this way. If chemist is a villager, why would he not have voted wws there?
    Gets me to think in a different way to get to a wolf!chemist read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2668)
    Zack
    Psycho

    Dels
    Iaafr
    Mill crab

    Waywardson

    Manti (maple)
    Ranmillia

    Para

    Chemist
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2689)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2682)
    i think it can still be chemist+manti or wws+manti (maaaybe wws/chemist but it's weird) but i have to admit the para/chemist world makes a lot of sense

    but i'm just spinning my wheels at this point and that's why i said i wanted to take a break + wait for para (and wws)
    I really don't think it's wws but I agree with you and iaafr I would kill manti before ran

    The flush kill is just making me a bit paranoid and preventing me from clearing them is all
    Currently in the Para/Chem world.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2693)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2325)
    Quote Originally Posted by FTFlush (#1538)
    well the last one isnt a crazy assumption
    but it's more likely that an afk wolf wouldnt park on a wolf i think
    at least not millcrab bc when he parked amy was very much in contention
    if wayward is a wolf then the third would have to be manti for this to make any sense
    but then why not just commit to voting me and they can both escape
    i definitely had traction



    tldr wayward probs town
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2332)
    Chem
    Psycho
    Zack
    WWS - I don’t think he ever kills FTF there
    MC
    Dels
    iaafr
    Manti
    Ran
    Para

    there are my “idk pressing buttons” reads
    Maybe confirmation bias but this was really fast and seems suspiciously knowledgeable of the nightkill's reads

    I personally didn't remember flush townreading wws at all but maybe that's just me
    Pushing chem's quick reaction to the nk.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2694)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#2690)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#333)
    not after color wheel it’s not
    Ok is there anything that excludes this from being w/w/w? I don't think there is because the amy/para bits are innocuous enough and talking about chemist like that (while mildly rude), isn't out of the realm of possibility. Think I'm off of where I was at yesterday with this.
    No imo

    Reminds me that iirc para casually called chemist lhf in his reads list yesterday which I found odd
    agrees that the interaction could be w/w/w

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2700)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#318)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#314)
    I'm pretty sure Para has a history of defending LHF as town (sorry chemist).

    Unless I'm misremembering he did it for sheep in Mountainous Arson and I assume he's one of the reasons I had such a hard time lynching Cemeteries.
    Chemist isn't lhf though
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#330)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#326)
    In most playerlists you'd be correct.
    uhh

    that's a little harsh?
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1881)
    Quick runthrough of Amy stuff that caught my eye

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#209)
    This is opportunistic.
    Amy shades Chemist here and in one other post later that really pushes me towards Chemist not being a good Amy partner, she doesn't even do anything with this it just looks like she's trying to latch some hooks onto an lhf
    oh no it was this

    I still think it's a bit weird but I suppose he could just be saying "lhf (from amy's perspective)"
    Then backs off it a little bit

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2703)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#2701)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#936)
    maybe that's what she wants you to think
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1170)
    lol
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1173)
    don't feel obligated to do anything

    embrace the chaos
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1179)
    I actually really like this response but I can't tell how much of it is personal and how much is AI


    Ok these are chemist's thoughts/replies to Amy from the Zack meltdown to eod. Looks like he maybe likes her reply in that last post. If I'm a villager in this spot with a thin town lean on Amy and an "idk could be scum" read on wws I probably stick to wws.

    Ok I'm a believer.
    if para is a wolf maybe chemist was hesitant to have all three wolves on amy's counterwagon?
    floating the "too nervous to have all 3 wolves on the cw" line.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2848)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1797)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#948)
    it's dangerous to assume wolves are always planning out and executing the most rational, logical course of action with surgical precision. sometimes wolfy behavior is just wolfy behavior.
    Acknowledged
    Easy reply to a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2853)
    para is still giving himself nowhere to turn or operate. like his reads have backed himself into a corner, and hes still trying to work in that corner instead of widen his poe. wolves don’t do this when they are at the bottom of the poe, it’s suicide

    meanwhile manti is ... not doing that and keeping his options open, like a wolf would be doing

    if ignore the flush nk i’d still think manti is a wolf
    Back to defending Para because he had boxed himself in.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2854)
    like it seems mind-boggling for a wolf para teamed with chemist to still try and sort of defend him in this gamestate and two village kills today?
    Para isn't paired with chem because he's paired with Zack.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2857)
    and i mean no one is going to kill iaafr anytime soon and chemist very likely bites the dust soon

    i don’t know, it makes more sense from a confused villager imo
    More defense

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2861)
    anyways i’d recommend psycho chooses between manti and para for his big manly gun, then we cuddle chemist or maybe the other in manti/para if one flips villager

    and there’s plenty of time to make your decision
    Gives a manti/para pool but floats chemist as the lynch

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2867)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1229)
    --felt good--
    112
    Dels
    iaafr
    Psycho666Soldier

    --felt decent--
    CatgirlMaple
    Chemist1422
    Mill Crab
    Paratroopa
    Slimy Soab (tilt notwithstanding)

    --???--
    FTFlush
    Ranmilia
    Visorslash

    --WaywardSon--
    WaywardSon

    this legacy is garbage but it's here
    why is chemist under "felt decent"

    why is manti also under "felt decent" and not "???"

    I think wws is a villager and amy was legitimately trying to survive there. she almost did.

    seems like the "felt good" tier is likely all villagers. Amy never explains the 112 read but that's a "felt good," yet feels compelled to give small justification for putting manti and chemist in feels decent.

    "honestly manti's iso reminds me of his d1 in long phase mountainous and that's good enough for me for today, i think "

    shades Chemist early then says "kinda like chemist's "why me fry me" take" and apparently that's enough to feel decent now
    Back to thinking Para is a villager and chem/manti are the team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2869)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2865)
    Someone should tell me if there's stuff I should read into on the Flush kill, I don't feel like pulling up the iso
    you are scraping the bottom of the poe, feel free to do some investigative work
    Encourages Para to keep solving.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2870)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2868)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2853)
    para is still giving himself nowhere to turn or operate. like his reads have backed himself into a corner, and hes still trying to work in that corner instead of widen his poe. wolves don’t do this when they are at the bottom of the poe, it’s suicide

    meanwhile manti is ... not doing that and keeping his options open, like a wolf would be doing

    if ignore the flush nk i’d still think manti is a wolf
    Yeah but I'm not dying today so I'm allowed to have my options open.
    para didn't die yesterday and didn't keep their options open then either

    he is committing himself to an extremely narrow POE that's going to be super hard for him to untangle and stay alive long-term with. He is only pushing you, so assuming you aren't w/w he is defending a wolfbro despite leaving himself pretty much no scapegoats to pivot to in the future and probably not having much chance at surviving very long. If he's a wolf with chemist and para flips red today, chemist is just done for. But he also likely needs chemist to die if he's a villager in order for his team to win so.... what is Paratroopa's agenda here, CatGirlMaple?

    on the other hand, you aren't committed to anything really. neither is chemist.
    Pushing again on Manti that he and chem were keeping things open while Para was boxed in and using that to defend Para.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2875)
    Alright manti you can roll out the para lacks win read now

    I'll allow it
    But allows Manti to roll out the WIM read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2881)
    i’ve turned into iaafr this phase it seems

    100% town: dr professor soab 🧐, paycho 🤠

    98.2% town: iaafr 🐇

    90% town: 🦀 the crab 🦀, dels 🐒

    82.7% town: ranmilia 🏔, waywardson 🗿

    60% town: maple 😺

    40% town: paratroopa 👾

    27.61438% town: chemist 👨🔬

    i used a series of complex formulae to acquiesce these precise figures, using 75% town = rand as a baseline. these calculations assume the earth is a perfect sphere 🌍 and air resistance is zero 💨
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2891)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#223)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#81)
    I'm tossing around ideas in my head about how many wolves are active rn

    I don't think it's more than 1 but that instant snap response to mill and the general mindmelds that have been going on have me thinking and I feel like if there is one my gut would say Dels, because the townclears could be taken as an attempt to act like the thread is pure rn

    yes I know I just told mill not to overthink
    Villagy of chemist here to look at the thread, see like three other people, and still go 'well I'm still gonna try to solve this anyway'
    why did he quote this but not mill crab’s posts that were before this?
    Calls out Para town reading chem but not me, presumably tying them back as w/w

    Note between these posts is when Psycho says his shot is likely between Para and Manti

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2969)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#2944)
    And Flush is the person they can't afford to risk getting the gun
    No one except you had any reason to care if he got the gun...?

    What is this post

    The visor reasoning is also kind of absurd imo
    Starts to sus Ran over the next couple of posts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2974)
    I had the thought ran's post closer to sod I think it was that was something like "the kills actually make perfect sense" seemed a bit like a wolf getting defensive/annoyed people thought they were bad kills. But I didn't say anything because I figured it was a dumb
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2989)
    Amy left the 112 read unexplained but gave a token justification for the dels read

    I remember para putting himself out there to defend Amy and dels quietly agreeing (might be wrong)

    And I did make the d1 prediction that dels would flip wolf day four

    All the clues were there. EOD 1 makes a lot more sense.
    Flips what actually happened here (Dels defended Amy and Para sponged it) making Para look better.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3000)
    might be worth it to shoot wws simply to finally resolve the d1 wagons

    people's behavior at eod when a wolf was lunched in a close race is kind of important to fully understand
    Starts to push for the WWS shot

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3006)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2891)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#223)
    Villagy of chemist here to look at the thread, see like three other people, and still go 'well I'm still gonna try to solve this anyway'
    why did he quote this but not mill crab’s posts that were before this?
    @Paratroopa
    Pushing Para again to come get some content.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3009)
    @iaafr https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...=1#post2950231

    bro I think wws is just a wolf here lol.
    Back on WWS wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3013)
    manti's eod1 makes no sense as a wolf

    the way para's back himself into a corner with his reads and poe makes no sense as a wolf

    the team is actually dels and wws
    And now it's dels/wws

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3018)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1229)
    --felt good--
    112
    Dels
    iaafr
    Psycho666Soldier

    --felt decent--
    CatgirlMaple
    Chemist1422
    Mill Crab
    Paratroopa
    Slimy Soab (tilt notwithstanding)

    --???--
    FTFlush
    Ranmilia
    Visorslash

    --WaywardSon--
    WaywardSon

    this legacy is garbage but it's here
    townreadd the bro in a good spot

    wolfread the bro in a bad spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3020)
    I can't actually find anything wrong with this

    I kept struggling trying to reconcile things that just didn't add up with para/chemist/manti

    it's because they aren't wolves and dels/wws are

    boom
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3024)
    new POE: wws, dels, ranmillia

    not afraid to admit when I've pooped my pants day two. I didn't die because I townread and defended the other two wolves for two days.

    gonna try and reread to double check this makes sense
    And just like that Para is out of the POE. Also floats why he's still around because of his D2 and people shouldn't be worried.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3033)
    with votes too really

    unless you're putting your biscuits on the line to kill that person during EOD (and it isn't self-pres) then I don't give it much weight

    dels bussed a teammate d2 or d3 in the only wolf game of his I could find in the database. I'm not sure how much I care about his wws push
    Possibly giving himself something to point back to as to why his vote couldn't have been a bus because he was around at EOD and amy died.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3034)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3030)
    dels is just town still but u do u, i think

    i think im gonna stick to 2 in wws/ran/mc final answer here

    which is not where i expected to end up today but it feels alright
    if I was amy i'd be pissed at a wws/mc team lmao
    Don't have anything to say here but I lol'd

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3036)
    anyways I want to re-read now

    maybe I jumped the gun on dels, fair enough. But I think wws is a pretty likely wolf
    Maybe dels is a villager but WWS is definitely a wolf

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3040)
    d2 syndrome is a good theory, though I'd modify it slightly. If a villager gets cuddled d1 I have a better d2, if a wolf eats the d1 cuddle then my d2 suffers.

    But in general yeah shooting lightning out of my fingertips d1 and d3/d4+ (if I'm alive) but leaving a wet fart d2 seems to be a somewhat common thing for me
    Explaining why it was ok that his D2 ended up with a dead villager.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3051)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3046)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3000)
    might be worth it to shoot wws simply to finally resolve the d1 wagons

    people's behavior at eod when a wolf was lunched in a close race is kind of important to fully understand
    Really?

    I mean I'd love for a potentially redeeming WWS w flip to happen for my sake but I'm pretty much already resigned to taking the L on this one, I don't think we need to resolve WWS at all when the Flush kill pretty much spews him v

    That's a galaxy brain level shot to make, Flush was practically WWS's only lifeline aside from like... me (and I see a f3 in my future)
    take a look at the game i linked, wws’ iso in it, and the d1 flip if you don’t mind and lmk what you think
    Trying to get Para on board with a WWS wolf read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3055)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3052)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3049)
    i wasn’t joking when i called this use of first person villagy

    most wolves probably don’t even consider writing this post from that perspective
    I don't think this is a super complicated process really
    i never said it was

    but that was a two minute response and a wolf probably isn’t thinking of the gun in terms of them ever having it like that
    Easy conversation about how my post could be towny that doesn't go anywhere.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3056)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#118)
    Chemist and Crab seem okay so far, Slimy Soab saying some things that seem off but could be different meta to what I'm used to. (Which, for the record, is "do not post setup speculation or discussion of open mechanics, ever, unless it's immediately relevant and actionable.")
    mill crab discussed it before me though

    huh?
    Shading Ran a bit more.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3065)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3064)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3062)
    Was WWS a wolf in this game?
    I mean I'm assuming that's the implication but chemist wasn't crossvoting their partner like what would have had to happen here with amy/wws
    Wws was a wolf

    Look at chemist vote history imo
    Not sure what he was going for here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3088)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2969)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#2944)
    And Flush is the person they can't afford to risk getting the gun
    No one except you had any reason to care if he got the gun...?

    What is this post

    The visor reasoning is also kind of absurd imo
    Again shading Ran

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3028)
    ran - who was afraid of flush getting the gun in your opinion?
    is this not a giant red flag or what

    and fine fine dels is probably a villager

    shoot wws imo. para’s post about the mechanics of it make sense to me
    Sussing ran, wanting to shoot wws

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3097)
    (ran, wws)
    (chemist, wws)

    these are the most likely worlds i see

    (ran, manti) and (manti, chemist) possible but would be weird. same for (ran, chemist) but less so
    Para completely gone from the POE

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3101)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3095)
    Like

    does ran go out and kill flush after flush sends the day saying they're going to shoot ran

    that's so incredibly gangster haha, I wouldn't have the guts to make that kill and then say 'nope wasn't me'
    i mean why would anyone else do it

    wolves don’t really make frame kills they eliminate threats to themselves
    Which is why Flush died because he was a threat to Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3123)
    i keep coming back to wws and chemist
    Off of Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3129)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3113)
    I'm sort of reeling at the implication that I would make a flush shot because I would be worried that flush would MISFIRE at ran (killing himself, if ran is town, from ran's pov) and then that ran would magically be imbued with the power to make everyone listen to them and that is what would finally bring me down

    Like... wouldn't I be way more afraid of ran getting the gun. why would ran not think I'm more concerned about the direct threat of ran shooting me in the face
    or mill crab, or whoever else was pushing you. lol ya.
    That was Flush. The guy who got nk'ed

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3137)
    fwiw i think there’s an obvious reason ran didn’t expect para would kill them

    but iirc mill crab wanted to go para and is widely townread. killing him makes way more than flush for wolf para
    Except he can't because then the Amy voters start dying too quickly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3139)
    it makes perfectt sense if wws is also a wolf

    chem saw amy pull ahead, knows its w/w anyway and doesn’t matter, figures “i dont want to end up on the counterwagon to a flipped wolf,” unvotes

    also effen theorem
    shading chem

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3144)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3142)
    Like seriously if the team is wws/chem then WHAT is there plan here by killing flush? the current gamestate SUCKS for them
    uh, chemist tried to use the kill to clear wws like four minutes after sod? do you think chemist was that hyper aware of flush reads? i certainly wasn’t
    trying to get Para onto the chemist train. Granted it didn't work

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3153)
    chemist didn’t get nervous like that at all at eod as a villager in the game i played with him

    he literally just jumped on a wagon and said “deus vult!!”
    More shading chem for his EOD behavior

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3157)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3152)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3149)
    Okay. Para was this your main post about Chem? Or was there another later I am somehow missing?

    Those first few posts are the sort of thing that I categorize as "this was good reasoning but not sure it holds up anymore, wolves do things sometimes"

    You're right though that the strongest point is that Chem was already on WWS. We've been talking a lot about how Chem got frozen at the EoD because he didn't know whether he should vote Amy or WWS (makes sense if they're v/w. if they're w/w it's easy to get cred)

    But it is true that he was already on WWS, so the crucial time would be the moment he unvoted WWS when he didn't have to. "Chem was scared to hop on WWS to save Amy there since he'd look bad after her flip" is a possible story. "Chem was scared to stay on WWS which he'd already justified" is a weirder one and I can see less reason for him to panic unless he's really really nervous about it.

    If he's partners with WWS/Amy I can see why he'd want to unvote WWS but why vote me instead of going for Manti or Flush? I guess he'd be scared that'd look really transparent after having his vote on WWS. And then... he doesn't go back on either of them... yeah I dunno, he should know as wolf that he can get cred there without looking bad.

    I don't have a conclusion here except that I think a lot of this stuff isn't clearing anymore at this stage in the game but that unvote of WWS should give us pause, yes.
    Yeah actually

    if chem/wws/amy doesn't chem just stay on wws, not caring who gets lynched, and use the red flip to gain cred? instead of doing like what will always look like a sketchy thing to do and then a wolf gets lynched anyway
    look at the wagons when chemist unvoted. amy had already pulled ahead and chemist likely didnt anticipate iaafr switching back at the last second

    if he stays on wws and amy gets cuddled he looks terrible
    Here is a back and forth that looks less likely to be partnered. It looks like Zack is actually trying to get Para on board with chemist.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3176)
    also amy in her last two wolf games (1) survived and won and (2) was the last of five(?) wolves to die

    so i disagree with the implication shes a weak partner to ruthlessly bus d1 but i die grass
    Setting up why he wouldn't bus Amy D1 like he did

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3296)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon
    wws
    chemist
    manti

    i’ve already covered this so much i don’t want to type it all up again because there is nuance that’s hard to get across in a few words

    I think the team is wws/chemist. manti and ran are the next in my poe i guess but i don’t believe ran is wolfy at all (just flush kill looks poor) and i just explained my manti read to 🦀
    Big red flag imo that Para isn't in this list.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3324)
    re-reading eod1 makes the team seem like chemist + manti, although manti dipping with flush vote is odd
    now exploring a chem/manti world but hedging on it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3339)
    (wws, chemist)
    (wws, ran)
    (manti, chemist)
    No Para in the POE

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3344)
    ran went to all that trouble calling amy a frustrated villager then doesn’t vote to save her

    so their plan was to look bad, get no credit, while also not even trying to save her?

    doesn’t make sense unless ran is exactly with wws imo
    Ran can only be with WWS, except later.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3357)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3352)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3296)
    wws
    chemist
    manti

    i’ve already covered this so much i don’t want to type it all up again because there is nuance that’s hard to get across in a few words

    I think the team is wws/chemist. manti and ran are the next in my poe i guess but i don’t believe ran is wolfy at all (just flush kill looks poor) and i just explained my manti read to 🦀
    This is honestly my least favorite list because A) I'm still struggling to see WWS or Chemist as scum and B) I don't think either are better as shots than they are lynches. Chemist maybe because I could see his WIM coming around, but I think WWS has resigned to just not really being engaged with the thread regardless of his alignment.

    But I will still consider those shots if that's what the majority really want.
    i mean how do wolves win if they cant mislynch wws or chemist if they’re both villagers

    they are taken off the table if you shoot them. i really dont think its that bad even if they aren’t wolves
    Possible point in Zack's favor here that it is pretty hard for wolves to win with wws or chem off the table. But Zack had lots of options open at this point where he could conceivably push. Dels, Chem, Ran and maybe even back to Manti

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3362)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3359)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3337)
    You were in the lead with 4 at one point. This kind of missing detail feels towny, though.
    I admit I forgot there was ever a time when manti had 4 votes as well but this is how I view day 1 as well, despite the low vote counts I don't think manti or flush was ever a viable end of day wagon, I didn't get that impression at least. When ran and para went on manti it looked like a maybe but even then I assumed it would be wws/Amy wagons (hence my saying if I didn't fall asleep I was going to have to move)
    well thats because manti self-voted and chemist wasn’t very serious about voting him. the 4 is artificial
    Discredits the take that Manti was ever in real danger.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3369)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3367)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3355)
    I don't see how wws is a better Lynch than shot at all

    resolving wagons is something that helps us a lot on the same day

    and they're both kinda keystones to eliminating or supporting certain worlds

    I think you're just wrong that wws is a bad shot

    chem idk
    I can concede on WWS, because resolving the d1 wagon does become valuable today. But I think there would be good vca in seeing who lynches Chemist regardless of their alignment.
    the value in shooting chemist is that you stay alive and a wolf dies
    Keeps pushing the chem wolf world.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3391)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3388)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3378)
    I dunno, I might shoot iaafr.
    what the $#@!? don't do that.
    why are you so obssessed with finding a "valuable villager" to kill for no reason

    just kill in the poe ffs
    Slight points here that he forces psycho back to the poe

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3406)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3403)
    WWS has a pretty reasonable chance of flipping wolf and if he does flip villager it is BY FAR the least damaging misfire you could make, because it still resolves the d1 wagons and eliminates a mislynch.

    If you shoot iaafr or dels, then you die, a person everyone already thinks is town is confirmed town, there's no real tangible new information or analysis, and dies tonight. So you basically just kill yourself for no benefit.
    @Psycho666Soldier

    this is important

    fine whatever if you don't want to shoot wws but at least stick to someone in the POE
    Slight points here that he forces psycho back to the poe

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3419)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3407)
    Psycho666Soldier

    Slimy Soab
    Dels
    iaafr
    CatgirlMaple

    Ranmilia
    Chemist1422

    WaywardSon
    Paratroopa

    Para/Chem
    WWS/Ran

    are the two worlds I'm living in rn
    I think the way para and chemist have hard defended each other today is a losing play if they're w/w

    it's not like that's going to take them out of the POE? so what's the plan there, hard defend your bro so you look even more terrible when they die?
    Again tries to break up the chem/para world

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3422)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3420)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3419)
    I think the way para and chemist have hard defended each other today is a losing play if they're w/w

    it's not like that's going to take them out of the POE? so what's the plan there, hard defend your bro so you look even more terrible when they die?
    hard defend cuz there's no easier plays left

    but that's a wifom obv
    it makes the most sense to me if one is a wolf and doesn't want to lose the villager who's defending them. or they're just both villagers
    Potentially TMI'ing that chem is a villager here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3489)
    when I re-read eod1 I definitely got the sense the team was amy/chemist/manti and should have given more weight to that

    oh well, at least now we finally can properly analyze day 1 and this clears up a lot for me

    I don't think Ran has any partner that makes sense. I don't think Paratroopa does either, don't really buy chemist. I think both of them have posted villagy, anyways.

    Leaves chemist and manti, who I think are both wolfy and make sense as a team.
    WWS is shot and a villager, and instead of going to Paratroopa, Zack pushes chemist and manti.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3495)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3487)
    I'm annoyed because if Para was scum I came around to it yesterday but then changed my mind again today when he posted more. Maybe just because he was busy day 2 and was posting today so it was easier to see him as town.

    I said on day 2 that I couldn't stand in the way of his lynch but I really don't know if I can now. Para defended a wolf and voted on the town counterwagon after having some pretty lacking interactions with that wolf.

    But I don't think he is wolfy. If he's town, I guess the scum are cackling that they didn't vote WWS at all and Para will get lynched for it? (Or Iaafr is a wolf)
    I understand and empathize

    that said, I'm reminded of pog anni where I was wrong for days, then when I was finally right on the most important day, I took a backseat and didn't push it strongly from lack of confidence and it lost the game and I felt even worse about it

    point being, this wasn't an entirely unexpected outcome and I simply am unable to push something I don't believe in, and I don't believe ran or para are wolves atm. And frankly I'd rather be wrong than right but too cowardly to do anything about it.
    Using the position that he'd rather be right that afraid to do something to push people outside of Para.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3497)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3494)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3489)

    Leaves chemist and manti, who I think are both wolfy and make sense as a team.
    So you'd basically do exactly what Ran said people would do which is say "Okay we lost one in our PoE so we just go to the next two and not re-evaluate?"

    this sounds harsh but its not meant to be, its an honest question
    why would I do anything else

    I strongly suggest everyone go re-read the last few hours of Day 1 now that we have a more clear understanding of the context and alignments involved.
    Still pushing the chem/manti world.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3512)
    who do you think is paratroopa's partner?

    if it's chemist that's a wolf we agree on.
    I think this was directed at me to get on chemist over Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3513)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3501)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3489)
    when I re-read eod1 I definitely got the sense the team was amy/chemist/manti and should have given more weight to that

    oh well, at least now we finally can properly analyze day 1 and this clears up a lot for me

    I don't think Ran has any partner that makes sense. I don't think Paratroopa does either, don't really buy chemist. I think both of them have posted villagy, anyways.

    Leaves chemist and manti, who I think are both wolfy and make sense as a team.
    So Manti just $#@!s up by getting me to stick to Amy instead of bailing? chemist I understand why you think he's a wolf but I am incapable of getting past Paratroopa at this point.
    when did he do that?

    did you see the chain I quoted where manti used self-voting to mask how he shifted his vote to waywardson?

    I mean it seems like everyone agrees chemist is a wolf. why is it so important to kill manti or para today
    Trying to keep me focused on chem and not go to Para or manti

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3515)
    If Paratroopa decided to put himself in an unwinnable corner and continue hard-defending his bro who was always going to die soon just to pocket me, then I'm fine being wrong and taking the win when he is inevitably cuddled.

    dels, I already made posts about the math and worlds that made sense to me before the shot. The result wasn't my preferred one, but it still is consistent with what seems to be a very winnable gamestate. I personally don't think it's paratroopa and so won't vote him, but it's certainly possible I'm wrong and I doubt he ever survives if he is a wolf.
    Defends Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3520)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3516)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3510)
    you don't see how he can be town?

    the eod1 wagon placement and amy interactions are a huge black mark but i still think i feel the way i did earlier which is that his posts seem like town
    Like, on a base level, yes I understand that he can be town. His reactions to Manti's and iaafr's push D2 read fairly pure. He has a very tight POE like Zack said that he isn't really trying to bust out of. It doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

    BUT, his actions and interactions with Amy just way outweigh those posts for me. If Para's a wolf and both wolves are in our POE do you really think he can convince the town to lynch you or me or rabbit or Zack? And if the third wolf is deep then he absolutely should be keeping the POE small.
    I actually don't think his interactions with Amy look very w/w. There are some weird posts if they are partners. Not outside the realm of possibility, but odd.
    Doesn't think Para/Amy necessarily looked w/w

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3531)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3521)
    Zack this is what I'm talking about. I start to doubt the Amy wagon, Manti digs into why, he calls it good enough, and I decide to stick to her. Like, that's such a massive $#@! up on his end if he's a wolf there.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1052)
    Fair. Still fine with Amy tho her sitting at 5 is a bit disconcerting.
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1053)
    What's the difference between 3 and 5
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1056)
    Why wws? You actually give a $#@! about him or is it a "I need a third name to make my question less pointed" kind of deal?

    Third thing
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1061)
    You're the top 3 wagons? Thought that was obvious.
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1063)
    Yeah but like who cares?
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1066)
    Always makes me nervous when someone jumps 3+ ahead of the next closest wagon. Feels like a runaway
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1068)
    Wasn't a rhetorical question. It actually matters. I want to hear your thoughts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1069)
    I care because I had an early townread on chemist and feel like he hasn't done a ton the second half of the day. I don't remember where he stands on people and if I can't get a full list I want to know where he stands on the biggest wagons.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1073)
    The wagon was me, psycho, rabbit, two of my stronger scumreads. You and visor, who I currently don't have great reads on, jump on quickly while i'm catching up. That's gonna make me take pause because close wagons have a greater chance of having a wolf on contention than a wagon that builds quickly in the last couple hours imo. The last minute cfd swings back towards maybe nabbing a wolf, but now is when the wolf team is gonna start trying to get a buddy put of trouble.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1074)
    EBWOP
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1076)
    I'm voting Amy, Amy is voting Soab, WWS hasnt voted yet. Wagons were 3-2-2 until they became 5-2-2.

    Couple hours left.

    What do you think are the odds we lynch any of these players?
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1077)
    Close enough
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1079)
    Reasonably high. I'd put outside odds on a last-minute 112 lynch but I think it's going to be one of you three.
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1081)
    If wws goes over here, he usually flips village. I feel like he doesn't go over as a wolf.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1085)
    I think this is fair since his wagon's cooled off and there's little chance a buddy would bring it back up if town!you or town!Amy or whoever is right there.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1089)
    Have to take off. Gonna stand pat on Amy. Manti brings up. a good point about wws, and this page is giving me some good vibes with how he's digging for my thoughts. Good night and good luck.
    I understand your POV here

    that said, after this discussion he actually unvotes amy and moves to WWS, then Flush. Do you understand my POV on why that is concerning?
    Tries to bust up my Manti town read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3542)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3527)
    #1591

    #2197

    Here are the cases for the town who need refreshers. Now that we have absolute confirmation that WWS was town, check out the events of day 1.
    I already know the case against para. I even listed in my earlier percentages that he was only 40% town.

    My sticking point is that when I re-read EOD1, a Manti/Chemist/Amy team made sense to me. Paratroopa makes plenty of sense as a wolf, I've made points against him myself, but I don't see a partner who makes sense with him. You listed dels/iaafr/me. I'm a villager, I strongly strongly believe iaafr is also one. I did think dels was a wolf for a bit last night, but it felt more like a recency bias read (dels hadn't been around for a bit and I was spinning wheels) that deflated pretty fast when I did a bit of a re-read of the game and he showed up to work things through with me and I remembered why I village read him again.

    I understand but disagree with your Maple read.

    Why is Chemist a villager?
    Starts to push on Ran's chem read

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3564)
    Maybe it is just Chemist and Paratroopa. I'm potentially and ironically getting too deep into "but why would they" in the same way I told people not to do with Amy day 1.

    unsure on anything except blasting chemist
    Could be Para/Chem, but we should definitely lynch Chem first guys.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3575)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3569)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3542)
    I already know the case against para. I even listed in my earlier percentages that he was only 40% town.

    My sticking point is that when I re-read EOD1, a Manti/Chemist/Amy team made sense to me. Paratroopa makes plenty of sense as a wolf, I've made points against him myself, but I don't see a partner who makes sense with him. You listed dels/iaafr/me. I'm a villager, I strongly strongly believe iaafr is also one. I did think dels was a wolf for a bit last night, but it felt more like a recency bias read (dels hadn't been around for a bit and I was spinning wheels) that deflated pretty fast when I did a bit of a re-read of the game and he showed up to work things through with me and I remembered why I village read him again.

    I understand but disagree with your Maple read.

    Why is Chemist a villager?
    #1232

    He's here after rabbit ties the wagons and ends on neither of them.

    4 WaywardSon 112, Ampharos, Paratroopa, iaafr

    Y'all were talking about the easy world like scum/scum wagons were the easy world. But, actually, isn't the easy world just these three?
    meh I've explained my thoughts on this a bunch of times.

    Chemist saw Amy as the lynch and didn't want to end up on the counterwagon and look bad.

    I don't think his EOD makes any more sense as a villager than as a wolf. He suspects and votes WWS all day, never really retracts it. He doesn't give any read on Amy except saying he liked one of their posts less than twenty minutes to the deadline. So why, if Chemist is a villager, does he not vote WWS over Amy? It's not consistent with his worldview.
    The start of the back and forth with Ran that causes Zack to jump on Ran.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3579)
    para has felt like mostly going through the motions since day 2, so perhaps he's somewhat resigned to the loss and that's why the way he's played it confuses me.

    And in this world chemist was really worried about the possibility of amy getting cuddled with all three wolves on her counterwagon.

    and the kills have both been off wagon
    Waffles again on Para.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3614)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3611)
    The argument for Chemist+Maple scumteam possibility when examining EoD1, as I am hearing it, is

    "Maple is scummy because she wanted to save Amy but couldn't"

    "And Chemist is scummy because he could have saved Amy but didn't want to."

    Is this is not mutually exclusive reasoning? (Mainly @ Soab.) Talk me through this from the beginning.
    I've explained it this many times and you still don't get it and are even slightly misrepresenting what I am saying

    So no
    Starting to get annoyed at Ran. Para sitting at 2 with me and Ran on him at this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3630)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3624)
    i cant bring myself to trust manti and i can't bring myself to trust ran's townread of manti nor do i find the process by which they arrived there natural
    I'm beginning to think I've just misread manti because of the way he plays and am too stubborn to admit it to myself

    I think am done townreading or defending ran. they can be a wolf. I'd kill them before manti.
    Ran is now a wolf read

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3635)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#1405)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1281)

    Seems like a low-info kill

    I quoted his reads earlier just in case those end up being helpful
    ##Vote Chemist1422

    Waking up and reading but hip firing this.
    This was Day Two. But I thought Chemist's eod 1 means he is never a wolf.
    Starts to case Ran and calls them out for calling chemist a villager now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3638)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#1676)
    Chemist hops off to Dels of all things at end of day, then comes in and makes a post simultaneously saying "low info kill" and "high info kill" and calling attention to themselves reposting things as helpful, showing a contradictory worldview on the kill and faking contribution to the thread - this isn't an insanely scummy post to anyone else? No one thinks so? To the point people are insulting me for calling that post out?

    I don't know what to make of that. I've been trying to keep an open mind and update to the norms here, since most of this response has to be coming from town. I genuinely don't know how to respond. It's frustrating, and combined with the fast pace of the thread and the fact that my Ampharos read was off - I don't know what to do.
    so when did you decide chemist's play makes him not a wolf? this is hours into day two
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3645)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#2841)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2828)
    you said you understood me yesterday

    you saw me feeling out the dels/para scum

    i havent defended para at all since then

    why suddenly me; having trouble reconciling this
    Just floating it as possibility while I was catching up because your start of day didn't mention Para. Then you did. So that's better. It's still a possible world though, as is Dels, Chemist, WWS...

    Scumrank:

    Ranmilia + Psycho (mod confirmed)
    CatgirlMaple (pretty much willing to follow her to hell now)

    Mill Crab + Soab/Zack (if it's one of these they're deep cover)

    Dels + Rabbit (Look mostly good, but possible partners)

    Chemist + WWS (Scummy looking, most likely either the scum or the miscuddle targets)

    Paratroopa (the dark vortex at the center of the nexus of evil)


    If I'm wrong about Para scum Maple town then I have done a bad and everything is terrible and likely have to hop on board with the PoE business.
    no it didn't convince you. You still think Chemist could easily be scum.

    Where did this confidence come from all of a sudden?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3165)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3157)

    look at the wagons when chemist unvoted. amy had already pulled ahead and chemist likely didnt anticipate iaafr switching back at the last second

    if he stays on wws and amy gets cuddled he looks terrible
    This is a fairly good point on Chemist. I've been trying to find reasons why people are on Chemist (and WWS) that I could agree with and this is the biggest so far. It was a very weird unvote. But it was an unvote that maybe looks better than staying on WWS if he's abandoned Amy as a lost cause and is leaving the thread. It doesn't really match the tone of Chemist's posts at the time, imo, but tone can be faked.
    YOU LITERALLY ALRADY UNDERSTAND MY EXPLANATION ADN CALLED IT A GOOD POINT WTF
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3652)
    ##Vote Ranmilia
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3662)
    I'm going to look over 112's posts about ran
    Using dead villager 112's read to help push Ran.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3877)


    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Comes in with a Paratroopa vote an hour out. I know Dels has an issue with this, so let's talk about it. The eople around at this point were me, manti, Ran, Dels, Para, WWS. Ran, WWS, and I were all already on Para. Para and Dels were never voting Para there. Zack I think can take a low risk here to distance vote. Unlike D2, Manti is clearly aware that this vote is close and matters (hence the joke hammer). So I think Zack can take the chance here to put Para at L-1 and still have the chance to move elsewhere.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3894)
    here's my reasoning:

    1. para was way more feisty when I played with him as v/v
    2. something something advance the gamestate
    Pretty weak considering the cases Ran and I had built.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3900)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3898)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3897)
    I killed the thread

    wolves shook
    My potential worlds right now are Chem/iaafr and Para/Del

    wby
    not sure

    intentionally ignoring it
    Avoiding giving any possible worlds.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3907)
    dels seems to be at a temperature lower than thirty two degrees fahrenheit
    Shading Dels

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3912)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3909)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3894)
    here's my reasoning:

    1. para was way more feisty when I played with him as v/v
    2. something something advance the gamestate
    I mean finals was a much more frustrating game than this one, this one's just me being a damn knob about amy and being perpetually in the poe forever, nothing I can really do about that, it's not a vast wolf conspiracy

    is manti trying to taunt me with this fake hammer
    you seem to be the only villager not frustrated then
    Starts to shade Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3917)
    that makes sense manti

    not totally sure how I feel about it yet

    ready to sigh in anguish after I kill a third villager in a row and justify it to myself that it advances the gamestate and resolves alignments and so forth
    Trying to scare people that Para is going to be a miss.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3921)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3916)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3910)
    if i'm wrong i'll feel dumb but I just don't think it's manti
    I completely missed this mill crab post

    I don't know why manti doesn't kill dels or zack? It seems to have WORKED though so I can't really see how it was a bad play - flush seems like a potential kill for manti to have made
    I'm having a hard time registering this as a genuine thought man
    More shading Para here and getting into a fight about thinking missing my post wasn't a real thought and pushing things on Para that weren't necessarily true. I know this jumped out to Dels and maybe it caught his eye because wolf!Zack was pushing his partners is ways that were slightly out of sync with the thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3929)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3926)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3921)
    I'm having a hard time registering this as a genuine thought man
    I don't know what you mean

    is there a specific reason why manti DOES NOT kill flush? especially if it's manti/ran

    You and dels have proven to be pretty weak threats to manti ultimately
    you don't seem to believe it's manti/ran though

    and you went on and on about how amy's play was still bad despite working on you and dels. So you saying that just rings $#@!ing false.
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3940)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3935)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3929)
    you don't seem to believe it's manti/ran though

    and you went on and on about how amy's play was still bad despite working on you and dels. So you saying that just rings $#@!ing false.
    I went on about amy's play being bad? This isn't a conversation I remember nor do I understand how it relates to present
    I definitely remember you saying something to the effect of it not mattering if amy's omgus "worked" or not because it was still wolfy and should not have been expected to work

    but you're grasping at straws to say the exact opposite about manti making what would be a bizarre kill?
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3952)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3944)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3940)
    I definitely remember you saying something to the effect of it not mattering if amy's omgus "worked" or not because it was still wolfy and should not have been expected to work

    but you're grasping at straws to say the exact opposite about manti making what would be a bizarre kill?
    I don't remember ever saying this

    I remember saying that amy's omgus was TOWNY because it didn't succeed, and was never going to succeed, in diverting any attention away from her
    I'm doing a poor job explaining apparently

    because it DID work on you and dels if you are villagers, but you didn't accept that as a valid counterargument

    now you're saying that manti making a suboptimal kill worked because dels and I aren't lunching him immediately

    it seems like a contradiction in thinking to me
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3998)
    ##Vote Chemist1422
    And yet he ends up on chemist


    This is an absolute bear, so if you don't read through the whole thing I won't be mad.

    D1: This is the hardest because the push feels real and there are some spots that don't feel like he's partnered with Amy. I don't have an airtight reason outside of Amy giving the green light to bus on her reentrance because she was sitting at 4 votes for several hours at that point.

    D2: Shades Para a bit and keeps him in the POE, but when Para starts to gain traction he comes in and shuts it down

    D3: Does everything he can to keep Para out of shots lists. He occasionally entertains wolf!Para worlds, but as soon as Psycho signals that he's looking to shoot there, Para disappears from his suspects list and pushes hard for wws/chem/manti. Once WWS is confirmed, he continues to push for chemist. When that wagon doesn't seem to be gaining much steam, he switches to Ran. That wagon stalls out at 3 and people seem to be settled on chem/Para. He puts Para to L-1 with what I think is not as risky a vote as people think it was, and finds his way onto chem despite shading Para a ton in the last hour.
    Here are the cases if I'm wrong.

    As much as I want it to be the hard world, I think I have to bend things from a perspective that's based on something I can't actually prove for Zack to be a wolf. Rabbit would have to have been playing an extremely TMI heavy game while still finding ways off wagon. He also had some pushes/interactions with both Amy and Para that I find hard coming from a wolf. Dels really defended Para hard but I don't know what else he was supposed to do there since town!Dels would do the same thing. I guess it's rabbit more likely than Zack because he managed to end up off wagon every single time.

    CatgirlMaple
    Ranmilia

    Slimy Soab
    iaafr

    Dels
    Chemist1422
  9. Day 4#4406

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread The case on Rabbit Starts sussing amy...

    The case on Rabbit


    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#272)
    current radar:

    ampharos + paratroopa
    Starts sussing amy and para after they come in.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#309)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#302)
    that's an AWFUL post by para and I ask that everyone review it.
    my 2 cents is that

    i was already tunneling chem as villager so it strikes me as possibly believable but para seeming to tunnel chem as villager feels a bit off? i actually dunno how he handles early d1s though

    but para was already on my radar for other reasons and i do think its not a great look to go "dw about it ur town" to the post he responded to
    Agrees with Para since they were both tunneling chem v but thinks Para was slightly off

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#369)
    maybe its just 2-3 in chemist/ftf/112
    But Para and Amy are both gone.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#373)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    Early distance vote after Zack voices his nebulous read

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#375)
    amy's density of game-related reads-related thoughts seems markedly lower than i expected (my point of comparison being the first rand of color wheel where we were villagers together)

    in other words, i wolfread the fluff to content ratio and find none of the content compelling
    Makes a content read on Amy sheeping Zack

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#384)
    amy stood her ground against me when our reads opposed on mendel/duk3 in the first rand of color wheel in a way that made me easily townread her for having her own worldview and being somewhat stubborn about it

    here, there's nothing she's sticking her neck out for similarly yet; im not even sure why she eased up off of her initial pings from chemist

    and it's not like it was late into d1 in color wheel, it was within the first 8 hours of the day or something

    the main caveat being a lot more happened in that game by this point, and most every slot was more engaged in making reads than in this game
    Again following up with what would be a fairly brutal comparison between her town game and this wolf game.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#394)
    112 how do you feel about ampharos right now
    Probing about Amy

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#423)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#338)
    Chemist still fine. I do think it's villagery that he was getting a bit skeeved by all the town reads.

    Amy is generally agreeable and i'm nodding along to her posts.

    112 way off from me on their ran read but I don't think it's wolfy, just wrong if that makes sense?

    Flush I've already forgotten his posts. Para fine, not really seeing what 112 is seeing there but I'm also not super paying attention. I feel like I should have thoughts about Manti but I don't oh well that's future Mill's problem.
    @Mill Crab

    can you actually specifically point out what you nodded along to w.r.t amy's content?
    Calls me out to expand my Amy thought. Possibly looking for someone to push for giving his partner an incorrect read?

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#434)
    @Ampharos when you have time could you outline why you townread 112
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#465)
    @Ampharos would also like you to articulate your townread on dels at some point

    sorry for all the mentions
    Pinging Amy to get back in the thread and provide some followup content.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#488)
    so when i think about the 112 meta comparison to g6 (where she was a villager; i didnt read much, just skimmed iso) and wc1 (where she was a wolf)

    i think her play fits closer to the aggression and unreserved wolfreading i saw in g1. she was more involved there, and had more thoughts overall, but the wolfreads felt similar. snappy, strong, confident. also response to pressure here so far has been pretty lighthearted and the random naked vote and unvote of ftf felt like it came from a wishy washy town mindset (except when im wanting to wolfread her, i remind myself she could just be specifically trying to project a deeper worldview with those kinds of naked votes/unvotes, and she was actually called out on naked votes/unvotes in wc1. but she also did them in g6, i think.)

    so 112 is also gun to head town right now for me. and psycho claiming a mindmeld with them makes me want to shove ranmilia into lynch contention d1.




    another random thought i wanted to air out

    when soab wolfread both 112 and amy and found the amy one harder to articulate, it reminded me of a phenomenon where i think the early wolfreads people have that are harder to articulate tend to be more accurate than the ones that you can case well. the ones you can case well already fit into a mold of existing wolf that youve cased before and can easily pull out, which i think makes them easier to confbias on some level. the ones that are harder to articulate, on the other hand, can't be confbias that way, so they're more likely to be hits. common caveats here being certain types of wolfy town players who you're playing with for the first time, e.g., every single time i see players first play with garden gnome they wolfread her as villager no matter what, or for another example, adrian's d1 towngame

    anyone else have this particular experience?
    Theorizes on why Zack's read is correct, and would have to TMI'ing Amy wolf

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#582)
    nope just isoed mc again and mc and ranmilia are probably not great places to go XD

    ##Vote Ampharos
    Comes back to Amy after tinfoiling myself and Ran for a bit

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#592)
    112

    iaafr
    psycho666soldier
    dels
    paratroopa
    slimy soab

    chemist1422
    ftflush
    catgirlmaple
    waywardson
    visorslash

    mill crab
    ranmilia
    ampharos
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#596)
    i was actually thinking im probably just wrong on amy just now but *shrug*

    wouldnt oppose wws wagon at this point, he's probably a wolf in the world where you and amy are both villagers
    Comes back around to thinking Amy town

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#605)
    112
    ampharos

    psycho666soldier
    dels
    paratroopa
    slimy soab

    iaafr
    chemist1422
    ftflush
    catgirlmaple
    visorslash

    mill crab
    waywardson
    ranmilia
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#626)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#621)
    TOWN AF
    Dels

    PRETTY TOWNY
    Chemist
    iaafr
    112

    LEAN TOWN
    Slimy
    Flush
    Paratroopa
    Mill Crab

    WHO TF KNOWS
    CatgirlMaple
    Visor

    LEAN SCUM
    Ranmilia
    WaywardSon

    PROBABLY SCUM
    Ampharos


    That feels about right. I'll try to articulate tomorrow between classes.
    wonder if my theory that the bottom of the list usually ends up town but the tier above it has more scum holds here

    amy is just too perfect of a scumcase

    scum hardly ever make themselves into perfect scumcases d1

    ergo, amy must be town

    it's just basic logic
    Now thinks that the case on Amy makes too much sense and has to be town.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#695)
    ##Vote Paratroopa

    the center of a Nexus of Evil
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#696)
    ##Vote Ampharos

    but actually
    Would be a couple of quick distancing votes here.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#699)
    so ranmilias latest bout of posting has opened up some random ranmilia plus 112 suspicions

    but also makes me actually rethink paratroopa

    if we go by underwhelming, para/Amy/wws kinda work

    if we go by strangely overconfident, 112/ranmilia fit that bill most

    d u n n o
    Puts the underwhelming world out there but also thinks the overconfident world is possible.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#713)
    I'm probably going to end up voting wws over Amy because Amy's posts actually give me more pause for a couple reasons. they felt more flowy, thread-present, and "yeah but you should consider x". also, as I mentioned before, she hasn't explained a single read, which I usually come around to thinking is a v trait.
    Signalling to vote WWS

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#756)
    v/w/w/w
    This is Amy/WWS/Para/112, TMI'ing Para wolf but calling Amy town

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#800)
    ##Vote WaywardSon
    Moves to WWS

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#818)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#816)
    it's a fine wagon i guess but it's a LAME one
    not calling this wolfy but

    lol @ u having this opinion while not being caught up or having any wolfreads
    Bit of a harsh dig at Amy

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#849)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#846)

    Can't really respond to the rest of this post since it's all wifom if I do, but don't worry about sounding hostile, it's mafia and I can take it
    i, for one, would not mind seeing the self-meta that you have an impulse to talk about (im assuming this is what you mean by WIFOM)
    Inviting Para to give some WIFOM talk

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#875)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    Sits off of Para and WWS on AMy

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#940)
    just briefly isoed amy's town game in color wheel (first rand)

    engagement level difference is night and day. but she had a whole team there who seemed active and apparently more time to play.

    but still idk. can't help but be severely unimpressed here. also not appreciative of the rather uncooperative attitude, and i struggle to think of leaving her alive as a good thing for the gamestate. think im just gonna stay here for the day.

    not gonna wifom myself out of it like para's apparently doing. except when i probably do, in a couple hours.
    Calls amy a wolf and says he's gonna stay there

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#958)
    thats not level 5 billion though

    its like level 2

    flail and try to come off as a flailing villager rather than a flailing wolf
    I talked about this D2 but this would be telling me off with TMI that Amy was going for the level 2 play

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1027)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1026)
    My gut says we're gonna miss today so I'm feeling out which slots I'd care the least about missing on

    Do any of yall actually feel ya have a grasp on the game? Cause without reading it don't look it
    I think there's always a wolf between Amy and 112, possibly both
    Thinks Amy could be a wolf

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1048)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#1044)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#958)
    thats not level 5 billion though

    its like level 2

    flail and try to come off as a flailing villager rather than a flailing wolf
    Some exaggeration on my part because it really bugs me when someone says why they think a certain post isn't wolfy and someone else replies "but wifom" or something similar.
    I get your point, but the instance you were replying to was ironically a valid iteration of that stance, imo
    Again with what would be a TMI take

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1117)
    mmm skimmed amy's iso again

    lean v if i go in with a fresh mind

    and thats where i ended up last night before sleeping too

    para/dels not scumreading her is making sense to me

    probably just wont end up on amy
    But thinks she's a villager again and goes to WWS

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1130)
    ##Vote WaywardSon
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1145)
    no right now after reviewing isos i still find wws wolfier than ampharos
    Reiterating that WWS has the wolfier ISO

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1151)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#1146)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1143)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1141)
    Viewing it through the lense of someone who would have hated a wolf rand, I think that's in line.

    Granted, i only read 5 posts in either direction of her voting
    eh i think wolves tend to not quite be that sloppy out of obligation to teammates

    basically im parroting para's sentiments from around when it occurred now which i disagreed with at the time but it makes sense
    i'm surprised you both apparently think so little of ampharos as a villager that you think their bad wolfy posts are somehow too bad to be wolfy
    well since you put it that way

    i don't really think that highly of ampharos as a villager, esp day 1, considering she entered color wheel with literally all wrong reads, voted my most confident v read mendel, wolfread jalandh, who was pushing duk3 correctly with me, and then called our push bad

    but yeah its different here. it's hard to evaluate based on meta because of the apparent lack of time. i havent tried to meta a wolfgame. she did well in some light game recently so i don't think she'd suck that much as wolf here? idk. it's complicated
    Tries to cover for Amy's game by talking about a bad village game she had.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1194)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#822)
    oh right my mentions

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#434)
    @Ampharos when you have time could you outline why you townread 112
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#465)
    @Ampharos would also like you to articulate your townread on dels at some point

    sorry for all the mentions
    not really and not really

    thanks for coming to my ted talk
    and i guess amy did this which annoyed me
    Would be some pretty harsh shutdown of a partner here. :/

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1199)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1228)
    ##Vote WaywardSon
    Puts Amy ahead of WWS 5/4 13 minutes out, but switches to WWS at T-minus 3 minutes to tie up the wagons.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1251)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1250)
    why is this game so frozen
    this games bizarre
    Would be a bit weird to be talking to your partner like this right before the flip, but I guess it'd be the situation where all 3 wolves tried to save Amy it's maybe gonna work out

    End of D1 Would have spent a lot of time TMI'ing Amy as a wolf and then ending up w/w/w on the counterwagon with a rand that just went poorly.

    Day 2
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1322)
    is it time for Dels to defend para more
    Counting on Dels to defend Para more so he doesn't have to

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1346)
    if wws is a wolf, 112 almost certainly isnt and it's probably para or ran

    I think

    idk conclusions might change after doing some casing
    Setting up WWS/Para as possibly w/w which would clear him after WWS flips v

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1375)
    I mean para did kind of defend the wolf and vote the counterwagon, as did I, so...
    Sussing Para

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1485)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#420)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#417)
    idk maybe i should've just said what i don't like about the whole post.

    i think if they were serious about the dels push, they'd be pushing harder instead of sandwiching the dels read in between wishy-washy nothing paragraphs.

    if you're serious about making a push, you're going to persuade and write things with a focus entirely on the subject you're wolf-reading, not write something sorta scathing and then wrap it up by talking about light town-reads.

    i guess what i really didn't like about the post is it's just structured in a way that seems to come from a wolf mindset:

    1. justify RVS votes with unfalsiable stuff people are just going to accept because there's nothing else to do with it
    2. list a bunch of stuff scumread x has done in the game without adding commentary and hoping that simply describing their actions is enough
    3. call to arms! 'town, do /this/' - easy way to look helpful, easy way to seem interested in setting up a game-plan or town strategy, just easy.

    it's just verbatim how i'd write a post when i'm scum. (of course i'm not ram.) i know the literal words are there to say they're pushing dels, but i don't see conviction behind the read.
    Okay just to add what I was thinking onto this - I read 112's accusation of 'lack of commitment' as "is more concerned with appearing town rather than actually holistically being town", not "isn't committed to pushing Dels"
    eh
    Some weak shade on Para?

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1506)
    I almost saved Amy, but I had faith in BATMAN
    Invoking BATMAN's #modboterror for why it was fine that he tied up the wagon opposite Amy

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1619)
    ok seriously exiting thread until at least 6 hours from now

    slimy soab
    ftflush
    mill crab
    waywardson

    dels
    paratroopa

    chemist1422
    catgirlmaple

    psycho666soldier

    iaafr
    112
    ranmilia
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1832)
    what I'm pretty sure that's like the 4th time paratroopas expressed that read
    Calling out Para that he made the same Ran entrance read and needs to do something else

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1924)
    inb4 its $#@!ing chemist/paratroopa
    Just wanna say kudos if this is the world for coming to it first I think?

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1955)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1953)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#1951)
    ##Vote Psycho666Soldier

    his is the vote on me I don't like, so I'm just going to vote here for now.

    he called my voting opportunistic without referencing any individual vote, but his vote on me could very easily be interpreted as opportunism.
    ##Vote Dels
    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Quick distance vote on Para when there was a bunch of joke votes flying around.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1971)
    mmmm starting to buy the para case a bit

    maybe 112/para/ampharos was the nexus of evil after all
    Buying the Para case

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2001)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#547)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#545)
    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#398)
    ##Vote 112

    I'm going back to bed
    This....

    ...is an entrance.
    If this is how wolf-visor chooses to enter a game I'm going to be like

    intensely confused
    the more i think about it the more TMI-y para's game feels tbh

    it feels like he gets to town too easily and has too little paranoia most of the time

    this post im quoting is like

    a pretty strong townread for a one post / entrance townread
    Calling out Para for TMI

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2006)
    112 + paratroopa

    pop the champagne we have found the tin cows' hideout and we're gonna skin their tin hides

    sorry for the tunnel ranmilia i always tunnel at least one obvious villager a game
    On the Para wolf train

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2007)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2004)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2003)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1822)
    You got 5 reads over null, and 6 reads under null, with 4 of those reads supposedly being close to rand.

    Your most talkative reads are the ones closest to center, and your least talkative reads are the ones you should supposedly have the most conviction for.

    Mafia look to be needing either 4 or 5 mislynches, depending.

    Nice post, though. I actually read it
    pretty interesting case tbh i like it a lot
    yeah in all my other town games i just write "buh I dunno" on all the players I'm iffy on
    not sure what you're referring to exactly right now, but i meant manti's observations of your reads list made for an interesting case why its wolfy
    Sheeps Manti's push onto Para which would be a bizarre distancing ploy.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2179)
    oh yeah that last question reminds me of a question I forgot to ask para (though he said he has no time today)

    @Paratroopa experience level with manti and general outline of how you think to read him?
    Pushing Para to explain the Manti wolf read when his play was different from Frostpunk.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2220)
    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Decides to run the Para cw up a bit.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2253)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2252)
    112 has 5 votes now? what just happened?

    definitely have to go, will move later if needed
    we annoyed zack enough by voting para that he finally placed his vote and then i started to feel bad for how para votes made you feel so i switched

    i originally intended to switch much closer to EOD
    But hops back to 112

    End of D2 Fairly suspicious of Para at multiple points and sheeps a Manti read that most everyone else called questionable. But still ended on 112. Would have to be setting up some decent distancing here so rabbit looks better heading into the late game.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2315)
    would advise shooting inside chemist para

    will towncase manti when I wake up again later
    Starts on Para as a shot option

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2354)
    one random part of my case

    even as I suspected manti and 112 I got into a rhythm where I felt like I kinda automatically started working with them to refine reads when we were both in the thread

    never any such feeling with para
    Continues to shade Para

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2386)
    just pop para and cuddle chem for the d3 win

    is where my heart's at
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2411)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1816)
    Definitely town:

    Dels - Dels's perspective has seemed like town Dels pretty much the entire game and I've barely seen anything that would make me believe otherwise so I'm ready to lock clear this one.

    Psycho - Conversation flow felt extremely natural last night, went onto Amy, don't really have any doubts here.

    Mill Crab - Was on Amy, I know he had some really good town-perspective stuff that I'm forgetting right now, seems extremely unlikely to be wolf.

    Definitely town but uhhh?:

    Zack - Zack should like, basically never be a wolf here, but I can't help be like WEEEOO WEEEOO for me that he didn't die last night and that Visor is exactly the kind of kill he would have to make if he was a wolf. This isn't like GH in finals though 'cause GH was leading us off a damn cliff and Zack has been a beacon of sanity this game and dunked a wolf. Zack/Amy is such an unlikely w/w pairing that it's basically $#@!ing stupid to consider, like Zack had so many opportunities to NOT get Amy lynched especially after I found a reason to read Amy town

    Seems town:

    Flush - I hate making reads based on how mad someone gets but Flush has attacked d2 with a furor that I think pretty much always comes from town? Really agree with his EOD analysis. Not suspicious of his 112 wolfread anymore. Just looks way better today.

    ???

    WWS - I think I probably have to take the L on this one, I came to the same conclusion that Flush did on this that them being w/w doesn't really pass muster - they cross-voted each other instead of trying to find some other counterwagon (manti? flush? 112? me?) and there was just really no need for them to do that. The fact that they re-entered the thread almost simultaneously is like, too comical to be wolf partners. In a vacuum I don't really like WWS's posts but this world seems dumb.

    Chemist - It's really hard for me to see the wolf motivation in how he played last night's eod. The Dels vote followed by the unvote is really $#@!in' weird but he had ample opportunity to save Amy at pretty much any point and didn't. COULD have just been frozen but I don't think there's really any reason to be when not voting almost looks worse.

    iaafr - The only reason I even have iaafr this low is because it feels like there should be at least one wolf between 112/iaafr, the WWS wagon being clean feels like a strict unlikelihood unless WWS was w, which, again, I don't think really makes any sense. I just don't think it's iaafr, though, his game flow has been pretty much exactly what I expected to see from him and I think the way he moves around his suspicions would be really hard to fake as wolf. He also top posted.

    Ranmilia - POE I guess. It's not impossible for me to see the wolfy agenda in Ran's posts but I sort of doubt it.

    Kinda just has to be these two unless I $#@!ed up somewhere?

    Manti - I don't really know what Manti is doing in this game but if he's town he's doing like absolutely nothing to show it. I don't remember he and Amy having any real interactions, I feel like Manti could have done more to save Amy but meh.

    112 - Had some stuff that felt good to me on d1 but I've been had before on this. I just don't think it's reasonable that there's no wolves on the WWS wagon and 112 seems like a plausible Amy partner.
    doesn't the chemist entry here look like a way more questionable reason to call somebody town than the reasons for the other people in this tier

    and didn't para have like an individual townread on chem early d1 why is none of that reasoning showing up here

    it's almost like Amy and para saw chem was irrationally being townread pretty strongly at the point where they entered and decided chem was powerwolfable
    Pushing chem as a partner

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2464)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2179)
    oh yeah that last question reminds me of a question I forgot to ask para (though he said he has no time today)

    @Paratroopa experience level with manti and general outline of how you think to read him?
    i asked this question pretty much because i felt something along those lines

    his read on why you were wolfy d1 was really generic and not at all even trying to take into account that youre manti
    Bringing back up the question to Para the previous day.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2519)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#384)
    amy stood her ground against me when our reads opposed on mendel/duk3 in the first rand of color wheel in a way that made me easily townread her for having her own worldview and being somewhat stubborn about it

    here, there's nothing she's sticking her neck out for similarly yet; im not even sure why she eased up off of her initial pings from chemist

    and it's not like it was late into d1 in color wheel, it was within the first 8 hours of the day or something

    the main caveat being a lot more happened in that game by this point, and most every slot was more engaged in making reads than in this game
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2543)
    i dont think i'm re-evaluating from chemist/para short of para making a really strong showing

    but if his d1 and d2 reflected the extent of his villageriness as a villager, i dont see it happening

    ive been avoiding making the meta argument for chemist but

    he tends to naturally believe things as a villager and his rate of thought production is extremely underwhelming, he didnt vote at all d2, and like i said earlier, the overview of his d2 was townreading the clear default lynch and top wagon and not fighting for it, townreading flush a little, and not apparently seeing any scumreads until starting to buy zacks case closer to eod (can easily be read as a course correction after being called out by me on the potential TMI)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2617)
    how do you feel about all my chem casing MC

    and how do you feel about the theory that chemist was frozen in w/v wagons eod1 because it's a harder choice than w/w wagons where he can just hop on wws and take cred for a sus he seemed to legitimately have

    and because i was still casing amy right up until like 4-6 mintues before eod (forget exactly when i switched to wws) and it looked like my switch onto wws couldve been a trap

    if chem votes wws there, i switch back onto amy, and its 5-4 amy, chem loses all of his position

    etc
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2630)
    new thought experiment: who's para's partner if it's not chem

    mc you seem to be defaulting to me

    which is kinda lolzy idk man but then again i might tinfoil zack in that world which is kinda lolzy

    ranmilia's entertained a para/dels world

    very impressive game if so, dont think thats what it is tho

    and then para/manti seems weird too because d1/d2 and i also just individually townread manti rn

    so its just para/wws?

    would have to be

    people sussing and pushing para: me/manti/mc/psycho/ranmilia
    people defending para (at least d2): dels/zack
    people with little para progression: wws/chem
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2654)
    mc whats your thoughts on the likelihood of para/chem being the exact team
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2774)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2770)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#2758)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2459)
    One big issue I had with para is that they were pushing me for all the wrong reasons
    This this this
    "It'S JuSt GoTtA bE 112 aNd MaNtI rIGhT?"
    remember when i shamed and made fun of you for trying to kill manti d1 while i was killing a wolf?

    me neither
    theyre making fun of paras readslist as wolfy, not making fun of you as bad
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2808)
    im gonna feel so silly if its literaly manti/ranmilia or some $#@!
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2926)
    status update: still tunneling para chem, third spot became ran but then that sus eased up a bit, esp after thinking why would scum ran wanna alienate me by entering like this
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2932)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2931)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2926)
    status update: still tunneling para chem, third spot became ran but then that sus eased up a bit, esp after thinking why would scum ran wanna alienate me by entering like this
    Does my case on chem give you any doubts about them, or doubts about whether or not we would be partnered?
    vaguely but it doesnt outweigh the sum of my worldview which has wws and ranmilia, the next highest tier after you/chem/manti, as just more villagery than you two for a variety of reasons

    i could see being snowed by manti currently still

    but if you're town, i think your conclusions on chem are all just wrong. if you're town it has to be chem/manti or chem/wws somehow.
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2943)
    alright well if para is trying to scare me off para chem it's slightly worked and I'm considering manti more again

    but para manti is playing even more suicidally than para chem

    I still don't rly wanna go into dels or mc tinfoils yet and it probably won't be my problem. I know where I'd vote if I were in an f3 with them right now, but no point telegraphing and I probably wouldn't be in that f3 anyway

    chem mantis obviously kind of strange too

    I'm not even capable of tinfoiling Zack at this point so $#@!ing kudos if this is somehow a scumgame
    Just before psycho states Para/Manti as his pool starts to take Para out based on his posting. Running out of time so skipping a bit.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2953)
    yeah its been stewing in my head ever since i said it again

    ranmilia and manti really could be the team, and they'd need para/chem lynched and they'd be happy with this gamestate, at least for now

    and the jerky, strong confidence progression that ranmilia has had really could be a bit of a plinko board scum progression

    what's really that clearing about playing to position to be in the shots list d3? what's so towny about that? how's that even a coherent plan in the first place? why is that sufficient to put manti at top town?

    so if im wrong on BOTH para and chem, which is obviously still pretty possible, it just has to be ran/manti imo
    10 minutes after Psycho's post we're now in a ran/manti world.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2956)
    i am actually legitimately back in ran/manti world and back out of para/chem world for now
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2962)
    the sod3 soapboxing reads as preemptive alarm that our default lynch today would end up being manti and not para

    so theres this thing ive noticed in my own play which ill call d2 syndrome

    in d2, ill always come in sussing 1-2 scum, and 1 town, and end up sussing the town way harder than the scum for most of that d2

    if it happened to me this game, 112 was the town and ranmilia was the scum in this situation. for zack, 112 was the town and manti was the scum.

    it's possible it just played out that way

    this isn't like... a good sell of the case it's just outing my thoughts on patterns in d2 reads etc
    Claims that he was correct with having one in ran/112 at SOD2, just got the wrong one first.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2971)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2970)
    Yeah looked back at it and Ran was really aggressive about trying to vote out manti
    in this world, manti is telling ran in scumchat it's fine because people won't follow and he won't go over

    or something along those lines
    PUshing the Ran/Manti world

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2999)
    the logic for why i was scummy at sod still just feels off... im scum for not pushing through with para after slightly sussing him mid d2 yesterday

    so i'm para's most likely partner?

    feels like a fake constructed thought designed to pressure me towards pushing para today
    Using a push on Ran to decide it's ok to back off Para.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3038)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3034)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3030)
    dels is just town still but u do u, i think

    i think im gonna stick to 2 in wws/ran/mc final answer here

    which is not where i expected to end up today but it feels alright
    if I was amy i'd be pissed at a wws/mc team lmao
    reminder that mc gave amy a pretty lazy townread at first and it was my pressing mc to look at amy more that eventually got him to vote there

    chemist even quoted that mc post today
    Starts tinfoiling me and uses chem to push it

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3053)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3046)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3000)
    might be worth it to shoot wws simply to finally resolve the d1 wagons

    people's behavior at eod when a wolf was lunched in a close race is kind of important to fully understand
    Really?

    I mean I'd love for a potentially redeeming WWS w flip to happen for my sake but I'm pretty much already resigned to taking the L on this one, I don't think we need to resolve WWS at all when the Flush kill pretty much spews him v

    That's a galaxy brain level shot to make, Flush was practically WWS's only lifeline aside from like... me (and I see a f3 in my future)
    what about wws ran world

    Rans the far deeper and more motivated wolf there and couldn't risk flush actually randing gun and shooting there
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3070)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3068)
    I've been thinking about gun mechanics and I'm pretty sure the best thing to do is to shoot someone who the wolves would be annoyed about having to kill if they're town

    Like, kill manti or wws

    I think manti is the way better choice - the hammer at eod2 is just wolfy as $#@!, they wanted to put an end to the day and didn't really care about the outcome, they've been shading me for weird crap, their iso is basically just a long lolcat. Best case scenario we just hit a wolf and we can all read manti spew together. Worst case scenario, we lose psycho, that sucks (we're probably going to anyway), but then we have a confirmed manti who'll die n3.

    I still really disagree with putting WWS on the chopping block but at least they're someone who is squarely in the POE and the wolves probably aren't going to kill. Again, best case scenario we hit a wolf and I do a happy dance because I was right all along, worst case scenario we lose psycho but now WWS is probably the nk and that gives us a stronger chance going forward.

    I think it should be one of those two. Dels, MC, etc just direct the wolf team to kill a strong target.
    I actually fully agree with this don't do the spicy shots now
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3105)
    like isn't it kind of crazy that Rans entire logic there hinges on para being a wolf
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3330)
    I don't know who to clear in {chem wws ran manti}

    I'm kind of over sussing para for today
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3348)
    also who is even Paras partner at this point.

    I did this thought experiment yesterday and it still kinda works here

    pretty much only chem??

    I guess possibly wws?
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3390)
    my strongest townreads are Zack and dels and he keeps tinfoiling me and dels

    I want wws resolved and he doesn't want to (slightly changing tho maybe)

    I came around to para town and that's his top shot choice

    manti shot is meh could be ok idk

    I'm not super invested in a chem shot either way

    it's really the tinfoils and the para thing that bothers me buuuuut I guess I could be wrong on para and he owned us all last night idk lol xd
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3420)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3419)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3407)
    Psycho666Soldier

    Slimy Soab
    Dels
    iaafr
    CatgirlMaple

    Ranmilia
    Chemist1422

    WaywardSon
    Paratroopa

    Para/Chem
    WWS/Ran

    are the two worlds I'm living in rn
    I think the way para and chemist have hard defended each other today is a losing play if they're w/w

    it's not like that's going to take them out of the POE? so what's the plan there, hard defend your bro so you look even more terrible when they die?
    hard defend cuz there's no easier plays left

    but that's a wifom obv
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3480)
    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3481)
    ##Vote Chemist1422
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3486)
    heart says chem over para rn but i dont have it in me to try to sell anything

    yall do what you want
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3584)
    ##Vote Paratroopa

    wagons will be more competitive this way
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3647)
    really could just be para/chem and we're wasting all this time spinning wheels for nothing

    in light of that possibility, im just gonna park on para and afk now for

    ill be back in roughly 2+ hours but ill be busy at 7pm est all the way through eod, only being able to pop in on mobile

    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3667)
    ##Vote Chemist1422

    restarting this counterwagon, i suppose
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3681)
    so now im settling down towards a chem/ran world with para just defending both wolves and pushing manti

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3712)
    wws

    dels / zack

    paratroopa / mill crab
    chemist

    ranmilia / catgirlmaple
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3742)
    ##Vote Ranmilia
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3756)
    i just want all of chem ran and manti dead at this point
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3993)
    I just don't know
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3976)
    I don't really wanna vote

    ##Unvote CatgirlMaple

    glgl


    Ok out of time. D1 rabbit would have been TMI'ing Amy yet still ends up off the wagon. There are some interactions that seem especially harsh if w/w, unlike the stuff with Para/Amy/Chem.

    D2 did some distancing and again it would have been hard distancing with Para by sheeping a Manti push.

    D3 Starts in the Para/chem world, but moves off it, especially after Psycho floats that he's considering shooting Para. Immediately pushes a Manti world after that. Tinfoils back to Ran, tries to get the chemist wagon back as the cw. Then freaks out, unvotes, and stays off wagon at eod. Here he would have to be relying on us flipping chem v, then going "oh, I guess freaking out at EOD is towny, rabbit's probably town too."
  10. Day 4#4404

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread still planning on voting at :00

    still planning on voting at :00
  11. Day 4#4403

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread Good news my multi quotes saved

    Good news my multi quotes saved
  12. Day 4#4397

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread I also want to talk about something quick that I...

    I also want to talk about something quick that I haven't yet, and it's how chemist treated me this game.

    Both of my wolf games I've wolfed against chemist. The first game I pushed his mislynch D1. The next game he was super sus of me D1, and even without getting some outting info he pushed me hard and got me on the first shots list that day. When I first saw the player list my biggest fear was that I'd rand wolf and have to wolf against chemist yet again. So when he opened up with that first serious question against me, I prepared for paranoid town chemist to poke and prod at me, and he just kinda drops it after I give my answer. I was surprised then and even mentioned it because I thought he'd be more afraid of getting bamboozled by me. He then lightly tinfoils me D2 (I think?) and D3, but every time he starts to try and case me, he just drops it. Now, I had helped lynch Amy at that point, so maybe it softens things a bit, but I never saw the follow through on those cases that again I'd expect town!chemist to make on someone who fooled him in one game and then he successfully nailed in the following game.
  13. Day 4#4396

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread Ranmilia the chemist case is fairly simple. When...

    @Ranmilia the chemist case is fairly simple. When he votes Dels the wagons were 5/4 Amy/WWS. It looks like Amy is going over at that point and having all 3 wolves on the cw is really bad. So he panics and goes with a read he had earlier on that he could call a tinfoil. When iaafr votes WWS with 3 minutes left, chemist is frozen. If rabbit is trying to bait a vote on WWS he looks awful. If he hammers WWS there and we flip Amy later, he looks awful AND all the wolves are on the wagon again.

    D2 he's the only one town reading 112. I've literally done that as a wolf and it's totally a plausible play in his position to cast doubt on the mislynch wagon.

    D3 the wagons are w/w at eod and he sees the writing on the wall and just gives up
  14. Day 4#4395

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread I briefly skimmed what's happened overnight since...

    I briefly skimmed what's happened overnight since I left.

    Zack, I'm sorry for tilting you with that case, but the tinfoil was strong after the Para lynch and I needed to live in that world and build that case.

    Rabbit, you're sort of correct that the case is brute forced. If it isn't chemist I need to basically build the cases as "this person is the wolf and here's why" so people can consider them from that perspective.

    Dels I read your big wall last night, so my memory is a bit hazy, but I do agree that it would be extremely weird for Zack to bring up the point of Para making low-info nk's multiple times when he should be content to push Manti for it.



    I'm going to give myself until 11 my time (2.5 hours) to do a rabbit post. If I'm not done by then I'll just post what I've got and vote chemist.
  15. Day 4#4394

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Mill Crab
    Replies
    4,430
    Views
    16,813

    Game Thread The case on Dels Day 1 Starts off...

    The case on Dels



    Day 1
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#484)
    So, a lot of the things people are taking issue with with Para are NAI at best.

    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#300)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#290)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#283)
    Oh yeah

    Why are people townreading me for pushing someone for trying to progress the game
    I don't know how to answer this question except to say that it's extremely towny for you to even ask this so I don't care
    What? No it's not.

    ##Vote Paratroopa
    This is exactly how I'd expect Para to respond to that question, and this is exactly how I'd expect him to read Chemist. (Because this is how I'm reading Chemist and I had literally the same reaction to that post)

    Saying "I have meta on Chemist I can read him" "actually well don't overestimate that i've forgotten it" is also totally in line with what I think Para would say

    And the one Psycho Soldier just quoted is the same thing - that's totally normal to be the kind of post that Para would comment on.

    I'm not calling Para town, he's a good wolf and he can emulate his town play well (because he actually enjoys wolfing), but if he's a wolf then he's a wolf who is currently copying his town play and it all looks fine to me.
    Starts off right off the bat with the defense of Para and calling people off him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#510)
    Other people who could be scum:

    Slimy Soab - I don't have anything major here but I don't think Slimy's posts evolved out of the "early day 1 phase" the same way that iaafr or others did where people eventually came down with a solid read. I noticed back during this morning that Slimy wasn't really commenting on the early Mill/Chemist/Dels situation much, felt the most potentially "posting to post" without being able to give reads, and does have a handful of posts since then that feel just sort of "hands-off commentary".

    I didn't particularly like Slimy's push on iaafr, it felt a bit too easy. Like, yes, iaafr was being obviously contradictory and changing a townread into a vote after 10 minutes, but, meh. I look at that and think "okay iaafr is being a weird but if he's scum he knows it looks silly" and I don't really think it merits such an attack so much as a "keep observing and see where he goes". Feels like an easy target.

    But Slimy's had a decent amount of posts with reads that make sense or questioning the same posts I feel are questionable, and has overall not seemed that bad, so I don't feel strongly about this.

    WaywardSon:

    I agree that the entrance could be seen as weak and that his response on this page could be a bit defensive, but the main thing I didn't like was this post: 450. This felt sort of like "Okay I named Amy as my top scumread and I need to look like I'm doing work, so I'll quote a bunch of Amy's posts" and I don't really get the methodology or why he needed to respond to all of these.

    Manti (CatgirlMaple):

    Just has not contributed, and is the person who is the most flying under the radar while making joke-y or non-committal posts. Manti in particular did not "evolve out of the early d1 phase" like I referenced earlier. Voted Chemist, didn't back it up, no progression shown before unvote. This didn't seem like a joke vote. Hopped on to Para as well, no reason given and I actually do think Manti knows Para (from Frostpunk) so it's pretty meh to me.

    Going to vote here for now:

    ##Vote CatgirlMaple

    Other players:

    FTFlush - Slight townlean. Why? Uh. Well. I vaguely liked the way he chose to question 112. I don't know why. Also kind of associate scum!Flush with "posting lots of words to get thread control" which he isn't doing. Maybe just due to IRL reasons, but whatever.

    Amy - Looks fine to me so far. I think Amy's defense of Para makes sense. Amy and Para were also in the previous GH mountainous game and I think she defended both of us there as well. Otherwise not noticing anything wrong with her posts.

    PsychoSoldier and Visorslash - No read yet.
    Gives a defense of Amy and thinks she's been reasonable so far.

    [QUOTE=Dels;3545341]
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#486)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#484)
    The fact you say he can emulate his town play doesn't make me feel any better about it. I only played with Para once, and I remember him being the defend-y type(pretty sure he defended me while the wolves were trying bumrush me). But it feels like he's actually struggling to engage and putting posts out there to seem active.

    Hell, in his response to Ranmilia's big post about Dels, he both defended Dels AND came out with a townread on Ran. I know it could be confbias, but it read like both a White Knight and a pocket attempt all in one. If Para is good at/enjoys being scum, then I think trying to pull a play off like that in one post is something fully within range.
    I feel like you're making a case for why he could be wolf more than why he is wolf.

    Also I'm not sure how you're saying that as town he's defend-y but then also saying that him defending multiple people could mean he's wolf pocketing.
    Here picking at Psycho's read of Para in a same way the Para picked at Zack's and Flush's cases. Getting technical and calling it a case on why Para might be scum instead of scum instead of debating the content of Psycho's push.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#658)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#653)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#537)
    I don't have any scumreads, they're just not townreads. I don't think anyone has really done anything so far that's super agenda-y or weird

    Snap judgment on your push is town
    Naw, naw naw naw naw naw. "I don't have any scumreads" is not something to still be saying near the halfway point of the day, not even in a passive meta. Town reads are easy to generate - scum knows exactly who is town and can truthfully call out what town things they are doing. Scum reads are what we need as town. We need to find the scum and vote them out, people who are not doing this are likely to be the scum.

    ##Vote Paratroopa
    Oh noooooooooooo

    It keeps happeniiiiing

    Ranmilia, this is how Para plays as town.

    Every single game I have seen him play where he is town, he gets pushed for admitting he doesn't have any scumreads.

    Para and I play very similarly in that we just don't have scumreads. We townread people and PoE from there. He's even less likely than me to arrive at solid suspects.

    Para's view on the game is actually very similar to mine here and it absolutely makes sense that he has no one he's confident of as scum or even wants to push. (And in fact our lists were very similar except I had more doubt on slimy/mill crab, which is also in character, Para is way more likely to occam's razor and just assume the "good" posters are town)
    Big over the top defense here of Paratroopa (there's a theme developing here).

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#671)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#667)

    1. What is PoE? Not familiar with that acronym.
    2. How does Para play as scum, in your opinion? What would you look for to differentiate that from his town game?
    3. If the scumteam was Dels, Para, Visor, how would you expect that town would be able to vote out scum day 1, or would it just be impossible?
    1) Process of Elimination. In this case it refers to the method of figuring out who you townread/won't lynch, and then ending up with a pool of the rest.

    2) I don't have any specific description for how Para plays as scum, in fact I haven't even really seen it that often. I think he's a good wolf and can emulate his town play. I do think I know of some things that exist beneath-the-surface and I have a few things I am looking for, but I can't publically say what they are. These are things that I think Para isn't necessarily aware that I'd be looking for. Even then I worry I'm saying too much. Of course, he's aware that I may have some ideas about it and would try to work around that, but. Like I said the main thing that I'm trusting is that if he's a wolf I will have some point where I deviate from the feeling of "Everything Para is posting feels natural and makes perfect sense" and it has not happened.

    3) I have no idea how to answer that. I will say my defenses of Para don't tend to even do anything, he nearly got lynched anyway the last time we played even though I said the same things I'm saying now (and said them much more strongly, because it was on day 2 and I had a much more solid base), and I got severely criticized for defending him. I'm not even saying Para can't be a wolf here, just that these reasons to suspect him are NAI (non-allignment indicative) and that everything seems fine to me so far so I have no reason to suspect him
    Some minor theorycrafting on Para's scum game. Laying out early a chance to say "He played like his town game like I said he would, so my defense makes sense!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#712)
    I don't want to be "sheeped" on Para, I just want people to trust that the things I say are NAI are NAI, essentially. It is entirely possible Para is a wolf and you should point out things you see that seem weird, and they may be things I didn't see, or I may say "Oh that's a good point actually". Just that if I give my two cents and say "actually I don't think that thing is AI", I would like that to be listened to.

    If I eventually can actually solidly give a townread there I'd like that to be listened to as well, but we're not there yet.
    Telling people to not sheep him on Para because he knows it'll look bad when Para flips wolf and he was the big town!Para pusher.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#813)
    Ranmilia has your view on Para changed after the discussion we had and/or based on further "meta" context?
    Asks Ran if they've reconsidered their Para scum read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#839)
    Good ISO Mill Crab. We seem to basically have the same view of 112. (whatever that view is, neither of us knows lol) I agree that the points you brought up are the best reasons to see her as scum. I actually didn't remember 445, I like it though. Agree that I still feel Ran's push was more substantiated than 112 implied but we've covered this ad nauseam.

    The push on Para I can see why she'd hate that post, though I do think there's a chance she misrepped it a bit - she portrays it as if Para just got a strong town ping from Chemist's posts. But I think it's more that Para was already townreading Chemist and that post was just a "yeah okay whatever you're town it's fine". Again, this could just be her seeing it differently because she doesn't know Para as well.

    Her vote on Amy today definitely felt a bit opportunistic. I'm also waiting to see what she thinks of you once she's read your posts, and for any other thoughts and/or a worldview going into EoD.
    Defending Para and Amy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#841)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#829)
    I can see the Dels defense brigade was working overtime while I was away
    yes, isn't it just grand. such fun.
    Yikes. Maybe too on the nose to be w/w?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#853)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#848)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#841)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#829)
    I can see the Dels defense brigade was working overtime while I was away
    yes, isn't it just grand. such fun.
    well, if we really are replaying mountainous arson, at least we have a game-breaking newcomb sub to look forward to on d4
    the real question is if chemist is cemetaries
    easy exchange here floating a theory that they would both know is false.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#860)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#849)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#846)

    Can't really respond to the rest of this post since it's all wifom if I do, but don't worry about sounding hostile, it's mafia and I can take it
    i, for one, would not mind seeing the self-meta that you have an impulse to talk about (im assuming this is what you mean by WIFOM)
    I can tell you what he means

    though I shouldn't

    I can say this because I'm 99.9% certain its stuff that Para is aware of

    so in regards to the idea of his meta being that he doesn't have scumreads as town

    yes, that's his meta as town, and therefore he'd "have to" copy it as a wolf

    but remember - as town, he gets wagoned for it!

    and in one game (s5 finals) he got lynched

    and in mountainous arson he nearly got lynched as a counterwagon

    and, like i said, that was with me defending him

    in other words, if he's a wolf, then "having no scumreads to fit my town meta" will get him lynched.

    and "not being lynched" is more important than "follow my town meta which could get me lynched"

    now, he knows this, and he knows i know it, so if he's scum he'd need to find some way to dance between the two

    but the main point is, the reason why para won't necessarily want to fit his town meta 100% as scum is that it's not a good way to avoid being lynched
    Again defending Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#925)
    Okay I think Slimy and Amy got a bit entangled in a situation where Psycho didn't get that one of Amy's posts was a joke, and Amy corrected it and said that Psycho didn't have any "reachy bull$#@!". Slimy thinks that missing a joke is reachy bull$#@!. Amy says missing a joke is fine.

    I don't really see that as being the key point here (sorry) and that seems to be most of what Slimy is focusing on.The other point being that there was also a quote she didn't understand why it was there (because Psycho seemingly forgot to comment on) which also she includes in the net of reasonable comments. I can sort of see how she could be generalizing and therefore giving an opinion that doesn't match what she said she feels.

    I can see Amy's tacked on "but this doesn't ping me" as scum just throwing an opinion out there for the sake of it. I can also see it as a real thought which is getting scrutinized way too much and her only response is "man i just didn't think it was a scummy push ok" and there's nothing else she can say.

    Amy's responses are really.... uh, sassy? Like calling the pushes on her lacking (810) and calling the WWS wagon lame (816) even though she's literally on it. Is Amy really like this as a wolf? It's basically purposefully saying things which could piss people off.

    822 She's literally not even trying to explain reads. I mean, if she's scum, what the hell is she doing? Same with 896, what even sort of tactic is this as scum? I'm inclined to read it like she's genuinely frustrated. Because she does have a point. She literally said "I haven't caught up I'm just going to defend myself and not post reads" and was met with "omg you're just defending yourself instead of posting reads"

    basically it just feels twtbaw, but i admit i can see why zack took an issue with the "oh but psycho's case doesn't ping me" addendum. i don't really see zack as looking worse for this but i guess i can see if he's scum how he'd feel it was a good push to make.
    Tries to digest the Amy/Zack fight and comes out of it with a town lean on her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#931)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#806)
    last time i played with town!WWS, he was pretty low in the content department (to the point where he probably would have been mislynched had he not subbed out), and i was hoping to avoid a similar situation in this game
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#816)

    THAT SAID there's like... nothing else in his iso that i'd consider alignment indicative. at all. mostly there's just not a lot of anything. it's a fine wagon i guess but it's a LAME one
    @Ampharos If town!WWS was low in content then why vote WWS here for being low in content? Are you saying it was a pressure vote to make him post more?

    You said it was a lame wagon but you still had your vote on him here. I understand you were catching up and it was an old vote so maybe it doesn't mean much, but. You've moved it now but would you go back, if Slimy doesn't become a wagon?
    Tries to get Amy back in the thread and contributing in the next couple of posts to try and get the heat off her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#938)
    also @Ampharos have you replied to WWS's questions to you?
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#976)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#974)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#799)
    ok so like

    i might not actually have time to fully catch up

    which is real fun

    so i'm gonna click on these votes on me and see what we've got here
    this is what soab was referring to
    ah

    i don't think there's any way i can stand against an amy lynch at this point, and i'm not opposed to it

    probably not where i'm going to be voting though
    Says Amy lynch makes sense but won't vote her.

    End of D1 Dels straight defends both wolves and ends up off wagon

    Day 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1291)
    Not looking at today:

    Psycho
    Mill Crab
    Zack
    (Iaafr)

    Some paranoia but probably fine:

    Ranmilia
    Chemist
    Para

    Could be scum I guess if I'm wrong elsewhere:
    FTFlush

    To look at today:
    WaywardSon
    CatgirlMaple
    112

    Psycho and Mill both had really strong second halfs of day 1. Psycho I think is strongly town. Mill Crab, I wouldn't be blown away if he's scum, but I would be highly impressed, all of his analysis and discussion looked good. Zack I was unsure about but after the way he handled Amy I am assuming he is just town. If the wagons are w/w, maybe a little less, but even then.

    Ranmilia I still have some paranoia about. If the wagons were w/w (or even if they were w/v and Ran was worried Amy would die), I can actually see it making sense to do that "gambit" to find a really good reason to say no to the competing wagons and move elsewhere. Because Para and I were both on Manti, this actually did have a chance of becoming the lead wagon, and could be a way to save Amy (and/or WWS) That said, I think the progression makes sense based on Ran's worldview and I have a similar thing for trying to find the wagon that is strangely being avoided, so this is really only somewhere I'd look if we are wrong elsewhere.

    Chemist's EoD was weird. Chemist didn't even place a vote. I have no idea what to make of it. I don't really see why Chemist as scum would handle the EoD like that unless he was just literally frozen and didn't know whether to try to save/bus a partner. Need to take a second look at this later.

    So, I read the EoD knowing the flip, and I made sure to follow Para's EoD to see how it lines up. I think it all makes sense and is in line with his town game as I perceive it. The first thing is that Para had a vote on Manti from earlier in the day when Ran asked them to place a vote. Para unvotes in 1150 by just listening to Manti saying "if i was a wolf i wouldn't be a wagon" basically. If he was a wolf I think he'd have much more of a plan with his vote and wouldn't just give in for what is basically a really weak reason. Para eventually votes WWS in 1198 basically not giving a reason for it, and also doesn't really talk much more about Amy. I think if Para was a wolf, he would be much more careful about crafting a progression here, especially knowing a wolf flip was potentially on the table. If WWS is town he'd want to make sure his progression for the vote is very clear and easy to see. Para basically awkwardly stumbles around at the EoD being confused about why people are off-wagon/frozen, and I think as a wolf he'd make sure to show more confidence in his pick so that he looks, uh, "solid", if that's the word. If WWS is scum then whatever, there's no reason to be critical of Para anyway and everything is fine.

    FTFlush I don't have anything to say about except that I like him coming in and calling 112 scum at the end of the day. I don't know, it lines up with my own worldview and it doesn't really feel like a scum tactic. Could be wrong about this. If the scum aren't in my bottom tier, this is a potential oversight.

    Will write about the others in another post
    Starts with Para out of the POE and defends his EOD

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1330)
    the reason why i initially leaned town on amy was because of how she was defending para (and sort of myself)

    i thought it made sense since she's played with us before and has seen para get suspected for those reasons, but i'll take another look at it to see if it could be partner-defending. it can also just be tmi/a good way to get cred from the two of us.

    i wouldn't think too much about the stuff in the last 15 minutes, think that is definitely anti-spew.

    i agree that the "opportunistic" thing with chemist is hard to see as w/w. that felt like a real attempt at shade.

    no major thoughts on the rest of the amy spew stuff except i was nodding my head along with it and think most of your thoughts make sense.
    defending his town read on amy

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1334)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1322)
    is it time for Dels to defend para more
    not particularly. i said what i had to say about para's EoD. will have to look at the amy interactions again later but i still think that if he was wolf he'd craft a bit better of a progression there. i could be wrong though. if people accuse para of stuff that i know is NAI i'll say so, but otherwise i don't object to other suspicion on him and i don't think it's impossible for him to be a wolf. i'll speak up if i feel i have something valuable to say.
    Says he won't really defend Para, but does.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1337)
    oh, i will actually say that the Visor kill is in line with how I know Para looks to do nightkills as wolf. He likes doing low-info kills, i.e. on people with low post count.

    I don't think it's a major point but it's possible
    Does point out that Para could make the Visor kill. Would be a weird thing to call out if they're partnered since nobody had really thought about that before this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1378)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1375)
    I mean para did kind of defend the wolf and vote the counterwagon, as did I, so...
    I would have too if I was there!

    though i didn't really object to either lynch
    Defends Para here with a line that I interpret as "I, a townie, would have voted the cw to the wolf. So Para could be town too!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#1606)
    Mill Crab I'm not able to respond to all of that Para stuff right now but honestly it's probably better if Para responds to it first because it feels sort of silly for me to be speaking for Para before he can even show up and speak for himself. I will read it all later and let you know any parts I have thoughts on
    Doesn't Garcia rule, but in a self-aware way because he knows it would look bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2083)
    oh nevermind, it was para who said that about chemist, not ftf.
    Here got confused about who was making a defense of chemist, but attributes it to Para (I think correctly?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2086)
    Okay, here is how I am going to approach the Para situation.

    I am going to make the best possible case I can make for Para being town. If people read my thoughts and want to vote Para anyway, then that is fair enough. You have a different point of view from me, and mine is unfortunately biased and affected by the fact that this is such a thing.

    That doesn't mean I'm certain the case is right. I don't think it's impossible for Para to be a wolf, and there are valid points. But I think a lot of the reasons being posted aren't accurate. Think of it like the trustfall exercise that Mac & the Syndicate players do. It's me listing my best reasons to townread Para. And then you'll decide if that's enough for you. And I will too.

    The first thing, and I said this earlier, is that Para, as a wolf, does not put himself in situations where he knows he will look bad. Defending a partner without a clear reason to. Voting a wagon without a clear progression. Being wishy washy with votes (like he did with the Manti vote/unvote) just for the sake of it when he knows it could get him questioned. (And particularly, questioned when he won't even have a good explanation for it)

    Particularly, he would know that he'd look bad if he votes Amy's counterwagon and then she flips wolf. He'd want to make sure, if he was doing that, that his vote makes total sense. But he naked voted WWS and didn't really have much of a progression there except "don't really think this is amy's scumgame"

    Even if WWS is a wolf, he would know town wouldn't assume that and that he'd look bad the next day. And remember, like I said and Ran has sort of implied, the wolves would know Amy is a lost cause, in other words he really didn't need to go out of his way to save her, she was never going to survive long.

    ---

    His posts today: This readslist (1816) is totally in line with what I'd expect Para to think today. Like on day 1, it's nearly the same reads list I have, except I have WWS as scum and Para doesn't. Iaafr quoted this and said it's a "weird distribution of tiers". It is not. This is how Para forms worldviews on day 2 and onwards. He basically townreads everyone and PoEs it down to what seems like the most likely team. And then (and this is what manti said), yes, he won't have a strong in-depth reason for the people at the bottom, other than "they just aren't town, it's gotta be them".

    I don't see anything in this readslist that feels off to me. And ultimately, it's not any different than most people's, except that he doesn't have himself on it, so I don't really see this as something to find fishy.

    - Also, this post: 1849 Minor thing, but I don't think Para would look at Visor's spew like this if Para killed Visor. Para, as a wolf, wants other people to make the reads he wants them to make. If he killed Visor to use Visor's reads to frame someone, he will wait for someone else to bring it up, rather than doing it himself. "Make them think it's their idea", essentially.

    The other thing that Manti said which is a reach was that Para has "less Wim" today. (1860) Para was literally just asleep or busy IRL and hadn't posted yet and the day wasn't even half over. This is normal. He does not post during those hours. If you're looking at Para and thinking "well gosh he stopped posting, he's so frozen!" then that's just not correct.

    Honestly, I don't think I have anything to say other than that and what I said about Para at the start of day. (1291) which I'd say to reread.

    So, with that all said...

    There are valid reasons to suspect Para here.

    Amy's defense of him could be partner interaction. I maintain this does not have to be the case though - Like I said, Amy has played with Para before (Marson) and has defended him there. If she's scum, it's possible that he was just a convenient person to defend for cred/with tmi because she knows how to do it. It's just easier for her to defend him since she knows his meta and doesn't have to struggle to find reasons for it. That said, in this case, the "thing he did to look bad" wouldn't be a thing he knew would look bad when he did it (which he'd avoid), it'd be him trying to interact with partner Amy and it just being not great.

    Para's defense of Amy near EoD could be partner. I think it's in line with his town play because he will always avoid what seems like an easy lynch, and will always assume wolves aren't just imploding and doing things that they know will make them look awful. But maybe they're buddies and he knows that meta is a good excuse to be able to defend her. If WWS is town, he could easily have saved her - he didn't know that I wasn't going to show back up, and if I did, I'd have voted WWS. (And I think I made it clear enough that's where I was leaning) So he'd want to craft a progression to get onto WWS hoping Amy could be saved. Like I said, I don't know if he likes bussing or not as a wolf. I just know that whatever he does do, he makes sure to craft the progression masterfully.

    also noting these EoD Para posts to Amy (877 and 901) which I can see as forced partner interaction, but also maybe as just, y'know, trying to solve the wagons

    Beyond that, I guess the most I can say is that, in Marson, on day 2 in this situation, I was able to pretty clearly say "Not only do I think Para is not scummy, but I actually can say I think he is town" and I was able to feel pretty definitive about it. And that's not the case here. My townread of him isn't as strong in this game, and maybe that means he's a wolf and he's still doing well but he ultimately just can't reach the same bar. On Marson, the things he was accused of were entirely playstyle and "why don't you have scumreads?!" and "why are you being obstinate". In this game there is actually legit stuff.

    Uh... I guess my opinion has actually changed as I write this, and as I look back at the Para/Amy interactions. I think the things I'm seeing in Para look fine and that the case against him isn't the best, but... he can be a wolf. It's not Mill Crab/Psycho/Zack/Iaafr. Really don't think it's Ranmilia. I think Flush is town now. Chemist, uh, maybe. But if the scum aren't in the 112/Manti/WWS group, then... yeah, I guess it could be Para. I don't know who else it would be.

    Para, if you are town, this is about the limit of what I can do to help you. If you are a wagon today I will continue to do my due diligence. But I don't know if there's anything more I can say right now, sorry.
    Makes a big town case on Para but does leave open that he could be a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2087)
    @Mill Crab: You asked me about 290 earlier. Yes, that falls under NAI. That is a very Para post. If he's a wolf, that's him doing a good job emulating his town play. Also: Yes, Para is not wordy like me. He throws out reads and he really doesn't like having to write more than a simple sentence to explain why he had the read.

    (also I agree if para is a wolf it's very unlikely chemist is, from how amy/para talked about chemist. just a very weird w/w/w interaction if so)

    other things from Mill Crab's iso:

    I can see 374 in particular being a sort of hands-off way of trying to have discussion about a partner. (Not postnumming others, just found this one while reading Mill Crab's iso)

    831 also could be partner-y interaction i guess

    846 Mill Crab you said you disliked this vote. This is exactly the vote I'd expect Para to make, in fact it is the same vote I had and (shocker) we voted the same way. No issue with that vote. Para is always going to trend towards voting for what he thinks people are missing rather than just taking an easy wagon.

    you said 891 was a lame followup to the manti vote but that's an example of where i don't think para would be lame as a wolf - he'd make sure to have a nice progression, not just sort of flub around.
    Answers my question about the NAI check and argues against some of my other points in my Para case.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2089)
    re. Manti:

    I don't have much about Manti, but Manti has been posting more. I think Manti's push on Para can be a bit opportunistic and I think he's going after things that aren't really there, like saying Para has had a Wim dropoff just because he wasn't in thread, or that his reads list didn't have enough words or the distriubtion was wrong or etc

    This is the only post I noticed that I felt was particularly scummy: 1933 I find wolves often take the angle of "Oh, this person pushing me seems genuine, so I think they're town", when townies are way more likely to get annoyed about suspicion or omgus it. Again this is similar to what Amy did with Psycho

    Manti's most notable post was wagon worldbuilding in 1844 but like I said I really don't think there's too much to read in to this because Amy was not someone worth saving. Manti also makes some weird conclusions like "Either Amy was bussed, or she had an AFK partner" but also since Para's his suspect, she could've also been saved. This post doesn't do much for me.

    Town:
    Mill Crab
    Psycho
    Zack
    Iaafr

    Probably Town:
    Flush
    Ranmilia

    Likely Town:
    Chemist

    Maybe Town:
    Para

    PoE:
    Manti
    WWS
    112

    My thoughts haven't majorly changed from SoD but I've solidified that I think FTF and Ran are town, really not seeing Chemist as scum, and that Para is the most likely scum if I'm wrong somewhere since there's nothing as strong as the stuff Ran/Chemist/Flush have.

    Sadly there's no one else around now but I would really love to hear people's thoughts on all the stuff I posted, I will try to get a bit of sleep but I should be around and will decide on a vote after discussion
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2116)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2113)
    My only real counter-argument to this is I think Para would also always try to think about doing things that advance the team's wincon. I spent a lot of time talking with Para in the jury chat discussing mafia philosophy and playstyle(mostly in context to the games, we weren't having epic debates or anything), and I get the feeling he values wolves who try to play straight without bussing their partners. And I think as a natural extension of his tendency to defend mislynch bait, he would have a hard time not trying to defend his partners.

    And in fact, like you had brought up, he absolutely has to emulate his town game to fool people like you. So why not use that as a veil for defending a buddy who looks like potential mislynch bait? He'd have a good explanation out of it and you to come to his defense. Imagine a world where WWS was the kill and Para's in 112's position right now. Would you not immediately be worried Para was the scapegoat for mafia knowing how he plays?
    You're right, it's possible. I actually have no idea what Para's philosophy on bussing is, I'm not sure we've ever talked about. I think any wolf could've either bussed there, or if they saved, they'd have known it wasn't gonna be worth much. But it's possible he chose "try to save", especially since, yes, as town, it's the sort of lynch he'd defend.

    Not sure what you're asking with the hypothetical, sorry.

    Yeah, I'm not really following Manti on the WIM thing, and your point about his EOD voting habits are solid(I do think Manti comes off as obv mislynch bait if the lynch goes through and that wagon would be heavily under scrutiny, so I could see why he'd do it).
    I think Para as town is just much more likely to put a vote on someone for ethereal reasons and then be like "eh yeah i guess that's not right", I've seen it so many times.

    Part of me is getting vibes that I was right in the first place and probably shouldn't have let go, but I think a lot of his posting comes off mostly pure today, as well as his latter-half d1 stuff. And I did actually really come out of my interaction feeling good about him.
    Para can definitely fake the tone as a wolf. That said, I think we feel sort of similarly here. I admit I've been convinced that Para is a possible wolf but that doesn't mean I'm going to look at his good posts and say "well he could do it as a wolf so i guess he is one".
    Concedes that Para can fake tone but still defends him

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2146)
    i actually wouldn't rule out 112/para. yes she made that strong push against him day 1 but a) it was early day 1, b) she never went back to him and hasn't really done anything with him today and c) if she's scum i think she just genuinely hated his post and would be the type who is like "well as town i'd hate it, so i have to reply to it" (also she's a busser)

    i had the same thought earlier but then i thought of what i just said. idk if it's the most likely pairing (since he's also calling her scum today) but i don't think it's 100% ruled out

    agree no ran/manti though i'm a bit surprised you still have ran in your PoE
    Doesn't want me to rule out a 112/Para team. Don't know how much he believed that possibility at the time but it would give him a reason to back off Para again after 112 flips town. He does walk it back later when I explain that the 112/Amy/Para interaction would be awkward if it was w/w/w

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2221)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#2197)

    #1822 - This is ALSO convincing to me, as unlikely a source as it comes from.

    Para has no reads, all game, and when I looked to him today, he went back to the same well of the Maple vote. "Eh, it's just gotta be these two?" in this situation is scum mindset. He hasn't done anything but exchange townread high fives, get an early highlight from Ampharos for doing so, and continue to coast, trying to get in the inner circle of people's PoEs but without actually putting in the effort like we see from Mill Crab/Psycho/Soab. He's avoided creating any conflict or showing any emotion other than "Hmm, yay, these people are all town," except when Ampharos was in danger.
    Okay, I see why you see this but again, this is not correct. That reads list is exactly how Para makes reads as town and the things Manti is criticizing it for are things you could criticize Para's reads lists on in most of the games I've seen him play.

    His world view is not weird - it's actually the same world view that I have (almost), that Zack has, sort of-ish that iaafr has (i think), etc.

    If you think he is trying to exchange townreads to buddy people or whatever, then fair enough, sure as scum he tries to use his "good tone" to get on people's good side. But I think in the context of this game, that reads list makes sense.

    I also accept Dels as correct when he says that Para believes in advancing his faction's win condition. Para, this game, has not done that for town. There's no effort, just a coast, a list of townreads, and an appeal to kill the other people in everyone's PoE circles.
    I actually didn't say Para believes in advancing his faction's win condition though theoretically I hope everyone does, but I don't know if it's a thing I'd specifically attribute to Para. But in this case, Para does not play town like those other people.. You will not find a Para town game where he is doing ISO work and wall posts and big cases. He is really not as tryhardy as me or others. He comes in, reads the game, posts his takes, tries to summarize his most coherent worldview and defend the lhf, and... yeah.

    I can't point to a lack of something directly in an ISO, it seems crazy for me to be going with Maple's read of all people, but I think Maple is spot on in saying townPara would have done more than he has, and that's the critical difference between townPara and scumPara.
    That's just not true.

    What last night was all about was waiting for Dels to deliver his read on that situation without tipping the hand too much, because Dels has been the active Para defense and I was worried about a potential world of Ampharos/Para/Dels. The hypothesis was, if Dels is scum with Para, or if my read is totally off and Dels really knows better and Dels/Para are both town, there would be a vigorous defense. If Dels is town who doesn't want to believe it, but is honestly looking at Para's game and whether Para could be scum here, and seeing what I'm seeing, we'd see weak agreement.

    Dels delivered the weak agreement. THE LIST DISAPPEARED WHEN PARA TOOK A DRINK VOTING MAPLE TODAY. Para is the spy, the one vaguely in people's sights but having people go "eh... we should get 112."
    Yes. Let me be clear, despite everything I am saying above:

    You have won this argument.

    You, and Mill Crab and Psycho, have convinced me.

    Para could be a wolf.

    I am saying the things I said above because I want to let you know those are gaps in your case because if Para is a wolf, those are not the things that are wolf-indicative. Those are playstyle.

    But yes, it is entirely possible Para is a wolf and I concede this and you are right and I realized it that the limit of my defense stopped far short from "I can confidently say he is town"

    But I still do not think it is the most likely option, and I would still rather vote in the group of WWS/112/Manti today.

    If that group does not contain the wolves, Para immediately drops into my PoE at this point and like I said I don't think I will resist his lynch.

    But it's not where I want to go today.

    Again, I 100% fully respect the case you are making here and I see why you think it and I do not think it is a bad case. I think there is a chance you are right and I will look stupid. It's just not for me today.

    If others want to then I probably wouldn't fight against it but it's not going to be my vote unless something changes.
    Concedes that Para could be wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2241)
    i feel like i'm in a really annoying situation because i'm feeling compelled to defend someone that i'm not even that convinced isn't a wolf

    and i don't know why i feel that way

    i wish para was here could speak for himself

    and i guess there isn't any reason why i need to speak for him at all or post any defense at this point since i said i didn't have any more

    so i don't know why i'm doing it

    except that it feels like its my job. and it shouldn't.

    and again i'm not even saying "para's not a wolf" i'm more just saying "some of these reasons you are giving for it are not good reasons" because i'm not even certain he's not a wolf, just still not as likely to the others for me

    urgh

    i'm just annoyed
    Frustration that he has to keep defending his buddy when he isn't around to do it himself?

    End of D2 does get to the point that Para could be a wolf but doesn't go there.

    Day 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2321)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2315)
    would advise shooting inside chemist para

    will towncase manti when I wake up again later
    i will need a lot of convincing on this.

    that said i agree that para is a consideration but i think i lean towards what mill crab said and i am going to re-up my efforts to get people to consider that it can just be wws
    Starts out with Para in the POE but wants to shoot WWS.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2397)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2392)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2387)
    reread his ISO and he seems less mad, more exasperated
    His responses to me, that is. Or like, his attitude? I got the feelz from the moment that he really hated me commenting on his wim, and he was kinda confused by what I meant wrt his post

    I felt frustration from him when it started to get bought into
    Para gets really annoyed when people accuse him of not posting (or having low WiM) because he's literally asleep during the first 8 hours of the day. (as town or as scum)
    Surprise, more Para defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2461)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2453)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2451)
    Someone remind me, who all do the wolves need to mislynch to win?
    ranmilia, wws, and you are the immediate mislynches necessary

    and then its lylo?

    if they cant get one of the above 3 they gotta double tinfoil lynch into {dels/mc/soab/iaafr}

    assuming my worlds just correct xd
    i mean, those aren't just the list of "mislynches wolves need", are they?

    that can also be the list of "people we are still able to lynch, and win if the wolf isn't in the town circle"

    10 alive today

    1 shot.

    9 alive.

    1 lynched.

    next day, 7 alive.

    1 lynched.

    next day, 5 alive.

    1 lynched.

    next day, 3 alive.

    1 lynched.

    that's a total of 4 lynches and one shot. if the shot is on a wolf, great. if it's on a town, we lose psycho which is like mislynching.

    so if the wolves are in the list of wws/manti/para/chemist, that's... not only a win, but there'd still be one more available lynch if we're wrong about someone and reach final 3?

    am i doing that math right?

    i'd absolutely re-evaluate if we get further and people keep flipping green but it still seems like a good pool right now.
    Has Para in the POE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2522)
    I actually haven't played with Manti before (i don't think) so I'm not aware if his town strategy often involved basing things off wagons and votes. I just think it's an easy angle for wolves to take and I think even in comparison to Ran, Ran has done it with much more conviction.

    I can actually see worlds with WWS, Para, and Chemist now so I'm not actually as set on Manti via PoE as I was yesterday.
    Takes Manti out which would be a bad move keeping Para in

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2568)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2556)
    god i dont even know if i can case wws town out of this

    and im not sure id be right either

    but my gut says thats not the sweep

    ehhhhhh
    i want to see the case because i too really don't think it's right

    i feel like if i was in spec chat i would be screaming "why can't they see it was w/w wagons" "w/w wagons happen sometimes, they're just dismissing it for no reason" "amy and wws' interactions are super forced and that quote wall iso sucked"

    but since i'm in a game i'm not able to have any confidence on it other than weakly trying to tell people i think it but being worried its wrong anyway

    but i think if i had the gun here i'd really want to shoot wws

    (though i'm very glad i don't have the gun, actually)
    Advocating WWS shots.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2600)
    okay, i'm going to stop posting for a bit because i want to give mill crab and others time to catch up

    we kind of need wws and para here at this point, para especially

    i think i agree 1 wolf in chem/wws but not both.

    i actually kind of like some of manti's posts over the last 2 pages, i can see what you're saying iaafr that there are some unique worldviews that show actual thinking and make points others aren't making

    i'm not clearing manti but i can see how it could be para with 1 of chem/wws. para/wws doesn't make a ton of sense since para would've stayed on manti day 1 instead of voting wws, though bussing is a thing and if the team is para/wws/amy he knows they are toast and he'd want cred.

    para/chem makes sense afair from what iaafr has said

    sorry para. it's not that i am doubting you (i guess i am) but there's a lot of townie people and i have to consider it since the other worlds are weird.
    Para/Chem could make sense and apologizes to Para that he can't keep the defense up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2624)
    oh, sorry, as an addendum, the other thing that para did here to look bad is of course voting wws instead of amy, if he is town. i don't weigh too much on votes personally because i think wolves can bus or save or whatever, especially on a wolf like amy, but it is possible, and mill crab i believe made the perfect case for why para as a wolf would try to a) save amy while b) getting cred from me for a wws vote that i know is in line with his town play. doesn't make him a wolf, but it's another valid point which lessens my ability to say "para has done nothing bad" like i did in marson.
    Getting some distancing in

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2675)
    Yeah, I think I'm coming around to the Chemist/Para world, though that might just be recency bias because Manti is posting and Para isn't. It's not a wim dropoff and irl stuff is fine but I really need to hear from Para.
    Coming around to Para/Chem but waiting for Para to show up and work his magic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2694)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#2690)


    Ok is there anything that excludes this from being w/w/w? I don't think there is because the amy/para bits are innocuous enough and talking about chemist like that (while mildly rude), isn't out of the realm of possibility. Think I'm off of where I was at yesterday with this.
    this actually reminds me of what we were talking about in spec chat during wildcard 1.

    about how a wolf is more likely to feel its okay to be "rude" to a wolf partner, because they a) can say in wolf chat they don't mean it and b) it looks like distancing

    this is what evenstar successfully used to look like w/w with vanity, by insulting his day 1 play

    it could be what's happening here, especially because i don't think amy is a rude person at all, and that comment is actually sort of... yeah
    Agrees that amy/para/chem could be w/w/w but focuses more on AMy's part of that interaction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2842)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2839)
    Chemist isn't a good shot/lynch for reasons I outlined on day 2 but I guess nobody really paid any mind to that
    so you are thinking it is manti/wws? or someone else for the 2nd?
    Getting Para to build worlds and try and dig himself out of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2902)
    i'm surprised there's not more posts but i guess we all sort of overdid it today

    i'm too tired now to read psycho's posts, sorry

    my opinion on para's posts is they're good and the worldview makes sense and and maybe i'm wrong about everything and should just listen to para i don't know i need to sleep

    see you all tomorrow
    Goes to bed thinking Para's posts are good again. This is Dels' last post before psycho says he's thinking of shooting between Para/Manti

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3067)
    Posting on my phone so not formatting well but tl;Dr

    After looking at Paras posts here I am actually siding with Zack - if para is a wolf this is a remarkably authentic worldview, coming in and defending chemist still, pushing manti but not knowing who the other partner is and admitting it (again like Zack said how does this help para, he just looks bad because he gets asked "who are the wolves" and can't answer) he suspects iaafr but then he takes it back, he's been defending ranmilia but then overnight naturally starts agreeing with iaafr that ran can be wolf. Still questioning the wws world and on particular the post where he CONTINUES to deny that wws is an option, but is now also questioning it more

    This feels like a) not the wolf perspective which is having an agenda of "don't get shot, push a clear other worldview" but also is actually solving and updating in real time, not to mention it is CONFUSED which villagers are

    I agree that when you view this in contrast with manti (and also when it's been a day and I've had time away from it) that mantis posts are more in line with a scum having a plan for today and trying to set it in action

    Again none of this is necessarily unfakrable for para but if it's faked it's a really good progression
    The next morning Para's posts are good again and he's snot a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3074)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3046)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3000)
    might be worth it to shoot wws simply to finally resolve the d1 wagons

    people's behavior at eod when a wolf was lunched in a close race is kind of important to fully understand
    Really?

    I mean I'd love for a potentially redeeming WWS w flip to happen for my sake but I'm pretty much already resigned to taking the L on this one, I don't think we need to resolve WWS at all when the Flush kill pretty much spews him v

    That's a galaxy brain level shot to make, Flush was practically WWS's only lifeline aside from like... me (and I see a f3 in my future)
    This post in particular from para gave me the strongest feeling

    Like wifom is wifom but if Paras a wolf he is ACTIVELY fighting against one of his best outs here

    It would be so easy to agree wws can be scum and tell people it's a world of manti/wws (never mind chemist/wws which he has solidly solidly rejected)

    Sure he can rely on people thinking what I'm thinking, but if he's a wolf he's not doing anything to actually make people believe the world is one of those others, which is suicide when he's in line for the shot
    Defending him again

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3078)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3075)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3067)
    Posting on my phone so not formatting well but tl;Dr

    After looking at Paras posts here I am actually siding with Zack - if para is a wolf this is a remarkably authentic worldview, coming in and defending chemist still, pushing manti but not knowing who the other partner is and admitting it (again like Zack said how does this help para, he just looks bad because he gets asked "who are the wolves" and can't answer) he suspects iaafr but then he takes it back, he's been defending ranmilia but then overnight naturally starts agreeing with iaafr that ran can be wolf. Still questioning the wws world and on particular the post where he CONTINUES to deny that wws is an option, but is now also questioning it more

    This feels like a) not the wolf perspective which is having an agenda of "don't get shot, push a clear other worldview" but also is actually solving and updating in real time, not to mention it is CONFUSED which villagers are

    I agree that when you view this in contrast with manti (and also when it's been a day and I've had time away from it) that mantis posts are more in line with a scum having a plan for today and trying to set it in action

    Again none of this is necessarily unfakrable for para but if it's faked it's a really good progression

    I want to be clear on something here - do you think I'm actually town for all this now? Previously your position was that 'eh para could fake this as a wolf idk'
    I don't know. I'm currently heavily being swayed by iaafrs (and zacks) posts and am still processing everything I read and trying to rethink what world's make sense

    I think if you're a wolf these are really good posts because, well, yes, they are really towny.

    Gun to head right now I'd say you are town and wolves are in manti/wws/chemist/ran
    Pulls Para out of his POE

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3085)
    And again, if Paras a wolf here then I am literally telling him I think he could be town and the wolves are in chemist/manti/wws/ran and he is basically trying to tell me that they can't be in wws/chemist and narrow down my options, and what, hope I think it's a manti/ran team (which even though I am considering manti now, that team is weird)

    You can say it's wifom or that he knows I won't listen but quite frankly para knows I generally listen to anything he says and will rarely disagree
    Would be some weird distancing here, but I can squint and see it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3124)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3113)
    I'm sort of reeling at the implication that I would make a flush shot because I would be worried that flush would MISFIRE at ran (killing himself, if ran is town, from ran's pov) and then that ran would magically be imbued with the power to make everyone listen to them and that is what would finally bring me down

    Like... wouldn't I be way more afraid of ran getting the gun. why would ran not think I'm more concerned about the direct threat of ran shooting me in the face
    This is a good point too.

    Ran's worldview is consistent. I generally view consistency as towny (in a vacuum)

    But it's possible that Ran as a wolf still understands their playstyle well enough that they can fake the thought process behind it to fit an agenda.

    And that's been basically the eternal dilemma with Ran all game, which I have basically always brought up, wavered on, dismissed, but am now really considering because I'm not seeing you as scum and I am willing to concede that both Chemist and WWS have reasons to be "just town"
    Opens up the idea that Ran could be a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3125)
    Ran have any of Para's posts tonight changed your opinion? Or made you have doubts?
    Again asking Ran if Para has done anything to change their mind.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3130)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3126)
    tbh this sort of makes me wonder if ran forgot that it was possible that he could be randed the gun (in theory)
    that would be a genuine perspective slip which would actually be fantastic

    but seriously that is a good point
    Gloms onto Para calling out a perspective slip. And for the Ran doubters, that is a dumb way to call out wolf!Ran by Para. No need to get people thinking about your partner's perspective slips when that really hasn't been brought up much (if at all) all game.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3135)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2862)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2736)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2733)
    various reasons, some of which I can't talk about

    I've been pretty busy today and spend like half of yesterday (irl) before the hammer playing pokemon with Jalandh

    The rest is covered by school/aforementioned reasons
    if you want a more personal answer it's varying levels of paralysis that I can't provide anything noteworthy to the discussion, thus making me less likely to post and getting me further behind
    This Chem post just felt super pure to me too - like I think it takes a ridiculous amount of self-awareness to be a frozen wolf and then admit to the thread that you are a frozen wolf

    Everything chem's doing is relying on the big brain play of getting dummy Para to defend him based on $#@! like this
    i think someone else already said this but this is what i refer to as an example of being too leniant, and i know you and i are both prone to thinking "well why would the wolf do something that looks bad"

    but sometimes they do

    and if chemist's a wolf, i can absolutely see him not knowing what to do, not being able to keep up with posting reads in a game with such a strong towncore all narrowing in on the right perspective, and so just relying on hoping that he seems honest in his nervousness
    Chiding Para a bit here and trying to get him to wolf read somebody in the POE

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3149)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2843)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#350)
    hmm

    ##Vote WaywardSon

    idk
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#416)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#403)
    wasn't serious
    ##Vote 112

    lolno
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#418)
    ##Unvote 112

    nah this vote feels dumb
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#452)
    I'm gonna go with the WMFM take on this one

    ##Vote WaywardSon
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1140)
    ##Vote WaywardSon

    idk
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1204)
    what if I told y'all

    ##Vote Dels
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1232)
    I really need to step back from this game and re-evaluate

    Every 2 minutes I want to make a different snap read

    Any time I try to go into an ISO I get bored really quick

    ##Unvote Dels

    I'm not gonna be around until tomorrow

    I'll try to focus better then

    Alright so looking at Chem's voting progression on day 1

    Goes 'idk' onto WWS, switches to 112 and immediately has doubts, goes back onto WWS for... uh, reasons I'm super unclear on, switches to Manti flippantly for a bit (I lost that post in my multiquote somehow I think and I'm too lazy to grab it again), then goes 'idk' on WWS AGAIN

    now all of this looks pretty bad on its own - chem keeps fidgeting onto the WWS wagon and never votes Amy, never really has a great reason for voting WWS, feels a little forced trying to get on there

    ...and then, after a wolfy setup to get onto a WWS counterwagon, he completely drops it, votes a vanity wagon at the end of the day, then unvotes and does not revote WWS, letting the lynch rand to Amy.

    I dunno how Chem plays wolf but you would have to have a seriously low opinion of Chem's ability to just hold pat on the WWS lynch after trying to get onto it three times. He could have just voted for WWS a fourth time here with another 'idk' and I mean, it would have looked worse for him in the long run because he'd officially be on the counterwagon, but Amy would be alive. Going to this degree of non-effort to have a progression on WWS just to dump it at the end for seemingly no reason makes no sense to me. If Chem is a wolf he got like sub-zero cold feet here and it didn't even help. Nobody thought Chem's eod was towny. He could have just bussed. He didn't. He got nothing out of this.
    Okay. Para was this your main post about Chem? Or was there another later I am somehow missing?

    Those first few posts are the sort of thing that I categorize as "this was good reasoning but not sure it holds up anymore, wolves do things sometimes"

    You're right though that the strongest point is that Chem was already on WWS. We've been talking a lot about how Chem got frozen at the EoD because he didn't know whether he should vote Amy or WWS (makes sense if they're v/w. if they're w/w it's easy to get cred)

    But it is true that he was already on WWS, so the crucial time would be the moment he unvoted WWS when he didn't have to. "Chem was scared to hop on WWS to save Amy there since he'd look bad after her flip" is a possible story. "Chem was scared to stay on WWS which he'd already justified" is a weirder one and I can see less reason for him to panic unless he's really really nervous about it.

    If he's partners with WWS/Amy I can see why he'd want to unvote WWS but why vote me instead of going for Manti or Flush? I guess he'd be scared that'd look really transparent after having his vote on WWS. And then... he doesn't go back on either of them... yeah I dunno, he should know as wolf that he can get cred there without looking bad.

    I don't have a conclusion here except that I think a lot of this stuff isn't clearing anymore at this stage in the game but that unvote of WWS should give us pause, yes.
    Interacting with Para over his chem read and again trying to get him to change it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3167)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3162)

    furthermore, everyone except chemist and wws has been around solving in the thread. not even talking about postcount, although that too
    yeah i'm worried i'm falling into the recency trap here. i started to think manti was town when we were actually around and posting together. now para's here and we're talking and it fades away and i go back.

    but i don't think my townread on para right now is from recency or just because he's around and talking to me.

    his perspective is incredibly authentic here and the way he's forming reads (not just in contrast to manti, but in general) is really townie. because he's come in with one worldview, admits he doesn't know the 2nd scum, floats iaafr, takes it back, continues to defend both chemist and wws, was townreading ran but gets convinced by iaafr (and both of us?) that it's possible, and is now actually asking basically the same questions that we are

    and he's not doing this in a way that feels like wolf agenda of "feel out who i can get mislynched here", because he's defending potential mislynches, and the suspects he has given are iaafr which isn't a good mislynch to feel out if iaafr is town, and ran, which we talked about first

    Ranmilia do you disagree with this? Tell me why

    (And Para if you are scum you are doing a fantastic job and I will feel silly for being fooled after nearly getting there)
    Strong defense of Para again for a couple more posts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3174)
    and also para's confusion and meandering just feels townie. this is what i was not getting with para on day 2, probably because he wasn't in the thread much and he really did believe it was manti/112 (and he wasn't the only one, we all did), but this feels exactly like how we've worked together as town before, in particular the way he's disagreeing with me about the chemist stuff and the way he showed surprise i was feeling differently
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3221)
    Sorry Ranmilia I actually need to head out right now so I can't wait for your answer, though I trust you will give one and I still want to know it.

    But what I was going to say is:

    I am not going to say that I am invoking my authority as the designated Para-reader here and that you have to listen to me.

    But.

    I think Para is town.

    That is my read.

    I will not veto a shot on him.

    I don't know what I'd say about a lynch on him depending on how the shot goes.

    But my personal read is that he is town.

    And that has weight to it. I am putting my credibility on the line.

    And it has stakes because I know that if I am wrong and he flips scum, I will be mislynched.

    If Para's, he's fooled me and he's earned that.

    I am not at "Everyone must listen to me I am 100% sure about this" level and I won't tell you what to do. If you disagree with me, that is fine. There is a valid case. The Amy interactions look wolfy, being on the other wagon isn't good, etc. I see it all, it's valid. But I don't think it means he has to be scum, and I think his posts today are townie.

    I would not shoot Para today.
    Finally comes down hard that he's not going to vote Para D3

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3423)
    Psycho, if I can say something, I actually sort of agree with Iaafr here. You feel a bit stressed atm.

    My shot list is Wws/Chemist/Manti.

    Other people have their shot lists.

    I don't think you should shoot Para. You want to shoot Para.

    I will not judge you if you do.

    You think there are reasons for literally all 3 of my PoE to be town. You are not wrong. I have literally spent days accepting Chemist as town, and was willing to accept Manti as town as well for a lot of today and I still ultimately agree with Zack he is 3rd in line. Your cases are not bad. It's just, someone has to be scum.

    What Zack is saying is correct. Any shot in the PoE is understandable.

    If this was a lynch, I'd place my vote and I'd be happy with others placing theirs and trusting the process.

    It's not a lynch though, it's a shot. But that doesn't mean you need to freak out about this, and you can still trust the process.
    Shot list doesn't contain Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3483)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3480)
    ##Vote Paratroopa
    I can't say this is unjustified.

    I need to think about what the other options are now.
    His reaction after the shot. Concedes Para is a reasonable place to look and will reconsider.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3487)
    I'm annoyed because if Para was scum I came around to it yesterday but then changed my mind again today when he posted more. Maybe just because he was busy day 2 and was posting today so it was easier to see him as town.

    I said on day 2 that I couldn't stand in the way of his lynch but I really don't know if I can now. Para defended a wolf and voted on the town counterwagon after having some pretty lacking interactions with that wolf.

    But I don't think he is wolfy. If he's town, I guess the scum are cackling that they didn't vote WWS at all and Para will get lynched for it? (Or Iaafr is a wolf)
    But still thinks Para is town

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3491)
    My gut reaction right now would still be to vote Chem too but I honestly do not know if my townread of Para can even hold up or is even worth justifying.

    Iaafr what do you think
    Could be Para/Chem but leaning towards chem

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3503)
    If it's Para/Chem and we started this day there and then worked ourselves out of it I will feel stupid
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3510)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3508)

    I might be wrong on chemist, but if Para is town here I just don't even know man.
    you don't see how he can be town?

    the eod1 wagon placement and amy interactions are a huge black mark but i still think i feel the way i did earlier which is that his posts seem like town
    Trying to get me to see town!Para in this exchange

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3536)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3516)

    Like, on a base level, yes I understand that he can be town. His reactions to Manti's and iaafr's push D2 read fairly pure. He has a very tight POE like Zack said that he isn't really trying to bust out of. It doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

    BUT, his actions and interactions with Amy just way outweigh those posts for me. If Para's a wolf and both wolves are in our POE do you really think he can convince the town to lynch you or me or rabbit or Zack? And if the third wolf is deep then he absolutely should be keeping the POE small.
    Yeah, this is the exact dilemma I have as well. I was already thinking Para was town today before this so I naturally still want to hold on to that but you were still thinking he was scum so you lean that way.

    I will have to make a decision about this though I am already feeling it will be what I said which is "I am not voting Para but you can"
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3590)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3578)
    We now know for a fact it was tied scum vs town wagons. Dels and Soab (and Rabbit), you're now sussing a scumteam of Maple and Chemist? Two people who were on neither wagon, and both demonstrated opportunity that they easily could have been on either? Two people who both played in ways that could make them strong considerations, not just for cuddles in the immediate future, but for the shot?

    That world does not make very much sense to me at all.
    I've admitted that Para being scum is the most straightforward option and that even I can see the logic of "wolf defends buddy, votes town"

    That said, even if Para is scum, like Zack is saying, it should still be with Chemist and Chemist is still a wolf who got frozen and didn't know how to do EoD. Para/Manti is weird but even in that case Manti did move his vote around off wolves onto town and then left, which is not saving Amy no, but it's still possible for him to do it as wolf since it has no real impact.

    Or, of course, as you are suggesting, I am aware, the team can be Para/Iaafr in which case yes they literally just both voted WWS and that's that. And you're right, that is the true "easy world". I just really don't see why Chemist/Manti doing weird $#@! and ending up off-wagon means they have to be town, and I'm not seeing Iaafr as scum based on behaviour at all. Same with Para, but I guess to a lesser extent if only because his interactions with Amy are worse.

    In fact, there's a saying that statistically, scum are often more likely to be contained in the list of people who end a day off-wagon.

    Also when you say those two people played in ways that could make them strong considerations for the shot, aren't you saying the same sort of stuff we are saying about Para? That if he's a wolf, he would be playing in a way that makes himself a likely lynch?

    If Chemist is a wolf he didn't play in a way where he'd become a shot/lynch on purpose, he just genuinely got frozen and couldn't continue providing takes in a village of strong towns doing really in-depth work. If Manti's a wolf he's basically relying on you to think that and he's playing in a purposefully weird way which, well, that is his personality.
    Pushing Chem first over Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3660)
    Also Ranmilia, this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3515)
    If Paratroopa decided to put himself in an unwinnable corner and continue hard-defending his bro who was always going to die soon just to pocket me, then I'm fine being wrong and taking the win when he is inevitably cuddled.

    dels, I already made posts about the math and worlds that made sense to me before the shot. The result wasn't my preferred one, but it still is consistent with what seems to be a very winnable gamestate. I personally don't think it's paratroopa and so won't vote him, but it's certainly possible I'm wrong and I doubt he ever survives if he is a wolf.
    The first paragraph.

    If Para is a wolf, he is not making it out of this game.

    Even if we lynched Chemist today and Manti tomorrow, he would still be next.

    He cannot get out of this. There is literally nothing I or anyone else could do to stop him from being a lynch.

    So the issue is basically if Para is a wolf and isn't making it out of the game, who is his partner.

    You think this can be rabbit or myself, because you think chemist and Manti are town.

    So I guess when you resist lynching not-Para, it's less about the fact that it's just not-Para and more about it being on Chemist or Manti?

    I can't speak for myself but I can admit Para/Iaafr can make sense as a team just on a basic level of they voted WWS, and I don't think either of them have ever solidly gone after each other. Iaafr started today saying Para was scum but with chemist and ultimately went elsewhere, Para made a slight ping against Iaafr but didn't go anywhere with it.

    Para with Manti doesn't seem to make sense. Para with you is insanely weird and I know Iaafr is considering it but uh I really don't know. Para with Chemist makes sense as has been proven.

    Para with Zack or Mill Crab, well, sure Para/Zack is possible since Zack has defended Para, but same as with Para/Iaafr, I just don't think Zack or Iaafr are wolves. With one more town flip, they both drop down and I become more open to considering it because there are less options, but it's still not what I think.

    I'm not sure where I was going with this except that I am trying to find common ground here, so I am going to hit Post.
    Showing that Para doesn't make sense with anyone except chemist, so when chemist flips v he can clear Para

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3695)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3690)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3689)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3684)
    Dels do you think manti is town and if so why
    no

    what made you think i did?
    The fact that you think that chemist of all people is a better vote
    Urf.

    You really think it's stupid to have chemist as a wolf huh?

    My above post was to Ran but feel free to respond as well. I get why you think Chemist's play doesn't make sense as wolf but it just doesn't make sense to me as town either, and (and I know you've addressed this) but we've literally already had one wolf this game who did just genuinely not know what to say and ended up digging their hole deeper. Why isn't it possible for chemist to be the same situation?
    Going back and forth about chemist here. They spend so much time arguing about it that it would be weird if they were partnered and couldn't get on the same page.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3727)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3724)
    This implies that you think there's someone who could be a Chemist partner besides Manti unless you think that's just the exact team, which granted isn't impossible

    Ran, iaafr, MC are all at least POSSIBILITIES with an amy/manti team, none of them are absolutely perfect but they're definitely not out of the question entirely

    I mean you're a possibility too although for obvious reasons discussing that with you isn't likely to go far, but it's just interesting that you're trying to steer this towards chem over manti
    i'm not trying to "steer" it towards chemist over manti? i said where i was leaning with my vote but steer makes it sound like some sort of agenda to get the thread to follow me, which i hardly think i'm doing. i'm debating between both of them and i'm trying to see it your way. ultimately my vote is just my vote. everyone has opinions here and i respect them.

    and yeah, chemist/manti seems like the most likely team. i am torn between thinking its that, or thinking that is "too straightforward" in which i then have to suspect either you or ran, two people i've had doubts about but ultimately really don't want to scumread, or someone in the towncore. do you see my dilemma?

    but yes, you're right, if it's the hard world with one of iaafr/mc i'd be completely overlooking it now, and i admit ran is a possibility.
    Some distancing/arguing here about chemis tagain

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3774)
    i mean, you're not wrong about para. if he's a wolf, he literally unvoted you because you said "i wouldn't be a wagon as a wolf"

    this is why i said back on day 2 that i didn't think para was a wolf because as a wolf he wouldn't make such a limp play
    more defense

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3787)
    okay, my ability to think or read my screen is going away so i am going to

    ##Vote Chemist1422

    I made the choice to trust Para and I am sticking with it. If it is wrong, it is wrong. Ultimately this is a game and this is the move that I feel best making. If Para is town and I voted him here I'd feel like an idiot.

    I think the case on Ranmilia is valid and I see why people think Ranmilia's posts are overly stubborn in an agenda-y way and how the PoV of constantly insisting the thread is against them/not listening to them is sometimes overblown and maybe scum. Iaafr and zack's case is very convincing, hell I have literally made the same case myself multiple times, but I just think that good cases can be wrong sometimes and Ranmilia's posts are still pretty townie.

    Para I tried to listen to you about Manti and I still think Manti is a likely scum but I'm just not seeing chemist as town and I don't understand the town motivation for the eod1 and i think since then chemist's posts are easily fakeable and fit the range of a scum who has had trouble keeping up. if i'm wrong and you're right about chemist then sorry.

    I will keep reading and change this vote if needed but I think Chemist is the safest lynch today and I really don't want it to be Para or Ran.
    .

    Votes chemist

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3815)
    we have been over this a million times i feel >_>

    if para's a wolf he knows i know his meta and has to toe the line between doing the things i know he does, while also doing things that will, y'know, get him townread by everyone other than me

    i don't really think he's doing that and the vote/unvote on you is still one of my examples why. "##vote manti because uh no one else seems scummy" "you know as wolf i'd never get wagoned" "oh okay i guess i'll unvote" is like... the kind of play that gets you head tilts. same with earlier today when he first came in and tried to call iaafr your partner and then was like "uh no i guess not idk"
    defends Para because of his world view

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3816)
    oh, you meant does para "have the thought" of going hard after you? not the thought of playing around my knowledge of his wolf meta

    nevermind like i said i'm tired
    Realizes he's wrong and corrects himself

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3823)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3813)
    This is an interesting perspective, do you think my game HASN'T been 'under the radar' or 'sensible' so far?
    Well the fact that you voted WWS over Amy on day 1 meant that you were no longer able to go under the radar. and even on day 1, you did the standard "i don't have any reads" thing which gets you attention because of course it always does. yes, as a wolf, you'd need to do a bit of it to get me to townread you, but you could've found a scumread, it's not like i'd instantly call you a wolf just for having an actual read.

    When I say "sensible", I mean that as wolf I think you find progressions that make sense, that are consistent, that no one can really take issue with. I'm aware I'm exploding my knowledge of your wolf game here but I think as wolf you tend more to make straightforward progressions that any player can follow - because you want other people to be able to follow every step of it when they go back and ISO you after flips.

    so actually even though i think is misunderstood, the examples i just posted above are examples of where i think you have not had that "sensible" progression.

    as well as just your thoughts on wolf partner for manti here being like "iaafr i guess? but maybe ran i guess but maybe you and uh i guess mill crab is possible" which is also another example of you doing something you know would hurt you as wolf, and is not "sensible"
    Dels explaining why Para's play maybe isn't as sensible as he's been saying it was.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3942)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3915)
    That would require lynching into the core

    Para
    Ran
    Chem

    Like maybe there are two villagers there but I obviously don't think so
    I mean, I take it you don't think Para and Ran are together. So if it's in that list it basically has to be Para/Chem or Chem/Ran.

    I understand why you are voting Para but this is why I think Chem is a safer choice. Obviously though I am biased because I think Para is town
    Trying to get me off Para onto chem

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3959)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3939)

    I seriously don't know

    I thought rabbit was a good partner but it doesn't seem right after all

    It might be dels if dels is willing to randomly bus manti for some reason d1 but then backtrack and stick to chemist here but that doesn't seem right

    It might just have to be manti and ran
    that doesn't make sense for similar reasons though. i would be "randomly bussing manti d1" and then backtracking but if ran is scum then ran really tried to bus manti day 1

    i feel the easiest answer here is still manti and chem but obviously you don't agree with that, but then you're looking elsewhere and not being able to find anything that makes sense
    again trying to get Para to get on board with worlds that A) let him live, and B) push mislynches

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3963)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#3953)

    Because literally every time rabbit posts it feels completely and utterly wrong to scumread him, I don't know else to put it, the one push against me yesterday I didn't like and he's the only possible wolf on amy but it just DOESN'T feel right. that's all I've got
    so why not chemist?
    Again trying to get him on chemist

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3983)
    I'm still happy where I am. Manti can be scum but still think this is a better choice. It could be Manti/Chem though. I'd vote Manti to save Para.

    If people want to vote Para I still understand and I feel I've done the most I can to defend him. I've made my decision though. Para if you are a wolf then well played and if you are town then I'm sorry if I should have done more.
    Really doesn't want Para lynched.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#4008)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#4003)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#4000)
    does chem really bail on this eod yet again
    Why doesn't town chem stick around with his neck on the line? I've seen him do it before
    yeah i guess

    ultimately my vote doesn't come down to understanding why chem does this as town or as wolf so it's not the biggest concern to me

    but i still think it's notable
    Agrees that chemist bailing again is NAGL


    The Dels case builds itself fairly easily. He defended both of his partners D1 and staunchly fought the Para lynch for two more days. Today he'd have to come in doing what he's done, which is admit a mea culpa and have people think he's town to accept his lynch for defending both wolves as much as he has