Type: Posts; User: Arapocalypse
Really hope this is right, sorry if not!!!!!
Dya's EoD feels decently solid here regardless, just saying!!!!
Yes she wasn't here for the first half of toDay, probably not alignment-indicative; but her posts when here did not have depth to them!!
And I do think she's had at least some time to become the slightest bit towny even if very limited, which I don't think she has!!!
I'm not surprised it seems contradicting; P#287 had a broken quote where it was Tracing's readlist that had no idea on you, not mine!!!
Also, not sure if I mentioned but I think Dya/Fleur are probably not w/w; not that strong of a read considering I'd have to go back and check what I bookmarked, but could be worth keeping in mind!!
Also been very lowkey liking Dya a bit more lately; might be because of the posting-freely thing helping!!!
Fleur suspected me last game, and she knows that I was townreading her regardless; is it really that much of a stretch that she could think that it's "safe" to suspect me here as mafia?
Taking into account a lot of things though... I'm somewhat leaning yes, probably!!!!
It's like the people who meme in spec chat saying that my alignment depends on how many exclamation marks I use; does that comparison make sense? Just, feels like it's something very easy/obvious to say, with no depth to it!!
Could be it's just more nuanced in Dya's head than them just saying that I have "flat hype" or whatever, but if so then I'm not really getting that!!!
...Oh wow, he actually gave a lot more thoughts on game 8 than I remember, oops!!!!
I'm just majorly conflicted though, considering that like... it's just that I don't want to make the exact same mistake again, you know? And I'm not sure the difference in play is distinct enough for me to be comfortable going there!!!!
I do understand where the people who are saying "he's giving less content than game 8" are coming from though, and semi-agree there, but still!!
To be clear, I'm not really arguing that he's town here; it's mainly just that I'd like to try and give him another day/not auto-default to him, as well as prevent people from reading him off of stuff which I don't think is necessarily mafia-indicative!!!!!
I honestly don't really know how one is supposed to read him... am lowkey just hoping he actually starts doing things on day 2 and gets obvious!!!
Also saying "there's one mafia between these two people" is inherently pingy in and of itself, but having seen Fleur's town game I do think she has greater depth of solving than that as town!!!!!
EOD HYPE LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
POSTING FREEDOM HYPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Noting as well that it had pinged me that she was very careful about where her vote would land when last leaving the thread before EoD/being concerned about who would get eliminated, the concern of which I'm not seeing here!!!
Noted on Ike; it's just, feels like if we killed him today it would be a very copout lynch and also just like no... but also I'd probably vote him over half the game if needed at this point to give someone else another day, including Penguin!
Penguin points have been acknowledged, just doesn't move the needle for me!!
Not really sure how alignment-indicative that is, but those are my thoughts, anyway!!
Personally I feel like her prods/volume of content seems about right for town!DeKay when scaled to the lower activity of this game overall, though your thoughts have been noted; I'm still highly unlikely to vote her though!!!!
I'm still not sure what you mean there; I'm assuming that when you say "not w!dya" you mean town!Dya, which... I haven't? What do you think I should have been able to say not w!Dya about, regardless?
That's a bit of a boring read which I thought you would know better to make, but sure!!!
For what it's worth, I don't really; I simply haven't found you as town, and having not really had pings from you either way means you're going to be in my "everyone else" tier until something happens to move you up/down... though at the moment I'm lowkey fine with you being a bit above due to others having shifted down a little!!!
Speaking of which, what's your current read on me outside of my read on you? I feel like you should have a better read on me here, seeing as you've actually seen me as both alignments recently!!!
For Ike, is the lack of reads really that surprising? I agree that it's a little (read: extremely) frustrating that he doesn't seem interested in solving day 1, which... was going to go on about stuff, but would be nicer to leave it at that for now!!!
Thoughts on DeKay are particularly interesting... why? Personally I think she's just approached the game in her manner of solving (poking places that feel like needing poking, taking initiative in certain parts/doing stuff while not necessarily being aggressive about it), so yeah that's a thing!!
Also in your post below, you said "I think between Dya, they make some good points" - did you mean to type another name there and if so, who?
Feels like this EoD is going to feel exactly either very boringly frustrating or actually fairly interesting... but I'm going to predict that it'll end up in a boring death regardless!!!
I should have tried to keep the limit lifting 2 hours before EoD instead of 1, two posts left!!!!
Regarding Penguin, I don't really get the sense that your interactions with Trace were his main concern? It was more the other stuff like the things with Daniel, which I personally think is more playstyle-indicative of you; I simply think he's done enough to pass the bar of towniness, for toDay anyway!!! Your concerns have been noted however; I'm also just mostly interested in seeing where he goes with certain reads, yours included... but I don't think it in and of itself is currently particularly indicative of him being of the mafia alignment!!!
For Ike, I have literally no idea; do you think he literally just posts more of nothing as town? Also noting that he barely said anything until people voted him, like that popping out of the woodwork at EoD 1 at my vote; maybe that should tell us something!!
To clarify: I think reading him off of today is essentially just a coinflip here considering his... attitude towards day 1, and if you feel better about literally everyone else and want to take that conflip, then that's up to you I guess!!! Legitimate question: do you actually see a real difference between his posts in game 8 and here, or is it just that his posts have no substance in them/fewer posts?
How exactly does Zen Blade seem different from last game? Did you get the sense that he was not sheepy there and why do you think his actions here are mafia-indicative?
What is your individual read on Dya, completely independent from their read on me?
Noting that you're probably not going to see this until toMorrow, but would appreciate thoughts regardless!!!
RagingIke297 Well for one thing, many of us were able to find each other as town and begin narrowing down correct consensus PoEs (which tended to have at least one or two mafia in them); essentially, it helps us to create a foundation for us all with which to base the rest of the game on!!!!
This game should theoretically have even more advantages of playing day 1 with our shared meta, so in theory we should be able to build an even better foundation!!
Can you help us build that foundation by giving us at least a tiny bit of stuff to work with? Even if it's just really light thoughts on anyone, doesn't have to be that confident; every little bit helps!!!
Very well played to Master Radishes and Penguin022!!!!
Really great to see it worked out well this time, Penguin!!!
Congrats myc and Sloonei!!!!
Too much mafia hype for only 50 posts; I've attempted to pace myself by force-leaving the thread once in a while, though whether or not it's been successful is a different question!!!
Did you end up looking at Penguin again by the way, and why haven't you brought it up again since? Also, Ike vote: why? Also, just thoughts in general on other people?
What from Fleur have you liked? I'm assuming you're referring to #275, which is... ???
Which posts of Penguin's have set you off?
Regarding Ike, like I've said already I won't be doing that; I'm a little surprised at people suspecting him at the moment because like... having seen his day 1 before, are you really expecting much more from him?
So, three separate points of tension to address here.Originally Posted by Catty91
1. My vote on penguin is suspicious - sheeping/quick to the trigger/too clear a direction
2. I haven't seemed particularly invested
3. Weird to specifically call out as unlucky that I didn't get wolf
First, where did my suspicion of penguin come from? A couple moments:
None of these are particularly damning, but my read was that it was suspicious to work so hard, so quickly, to force tension directed towards a player chosen evidently at random--to the point of calling out everyone who wasn't participating in a specific conversation, and then poking further at several other specific players. It reads to me as aiming to throw targets at everyone but himself and seeing which ones stick.Originally Posted by Penguin022
Since I've never played forum mafia before, I'm reluctant to jump too quickly on my vague feelings. I don't know exactly what to look for in this specific context as much as some more experienced players. One thing I can confidently do, though, is confirm or reject others' impressions. A couple of others seem to have had a similar vague feeling, so I jumped in to confirm. I could see an argument to read this as suspicious "sheeping" if I was more experienced here, but the odds of me coming up with a helpful new insight on day 1 of my first online mafia game are much, much lower than the odds of me being able to say something useful about the judgment of others.
I'm not particularly set on the vote, particularly after Penguin's further analysis which allayed some of my worries. That's where it came from, though. Looking around now, I'm mostly suspicious of Ike, since early silence isn't a great sign (which, yeah, self-damning. timing ). Not going to vote him day 1, though, since going out day 1 twice in a row is lame.
Regardless, is it odd to be quick on the trigger? It's not like a vote is permanent. I read it more as helping the wind blow one direction or another. Casting a vote seems like part of feeling things out to me. Like I said above, I wasn't going to jump in hard to take things in a direction no one else had spotted early, but I prefer to be decisive in narrow, promising, changeable directions over being indecisive and hence useless and unpredictable.
On the question about whether my play is always so polarized: There is no "always" with my play right now, not in online Mafia. Again, this is all new for me. What I can say is that I laser-focus in on games in the moments I have something cool I'm trying to pull, even when by all rights I should be keeping busy with real-life stuff. I expect I always would have been a little bit quiet in Day 1, just because it's hard for me to know how much useful content can be gleaned before we've been able to see the mafia act, and that compounded with me having a lot of work to get through to make a period of relative silence the most obvious option. I don't plan on staying disengaged, but I suspect Ash is right that if I had drawn wolf I would have zeroed in on the game immediately.
On calling my draw out as unlucky: I'd like to not be a wildcard for very long. The fastest way to not be a wildcard is giving out the most relevant/useful information about myself to let people know what to look for. That the information is negative/weird is a bonus, since that's the sort of information that lets people set a baseline faster.
My current reads, more or less:
Ash - the only one I feel pretty confident about
Penguin (high uncertainty)
Ike[/QUOTE]Explanation of your Penguin vote is much appreciated!!!
Personally, my issue wasn't that you were so quick to vote, more that... I suppose you could say that the vote felt opportunistic with several other people already voting him there!!!!
Can you elaborate a bit on some of your village leans? You've talked quite a bit about Ash Lael, how about some of your others such as KruZe?
Aside from Penguin/Ike, who would you currently want to vote?
What else in particular besides Penguin/Ash Lael has stuck out to you?
No rush on this, there's still lots of time before EoD, just want to get more thoughts from you about everything!!!
It also majorly pings me that that's the only thing you have after having caught up? Obviously, this game is not exactly the most active where we only have less than 300 posts, but there's still been a decent amount of other posting as well, for which I'm surprised you haven't mentioned any of the rest!!!!
...I'm just not really getting that you're that into solving here at the moment!!
Will be interested in any other reads that you have to share!!!!
I would also point out that instead of being able to say essentially whatever I like, I've been trying to optimize post usage much more here; feels like it should be obvious with a 50 post limit versus 150, but... yeah!!!
Regarding Fleur, I'm very shrug; mostly just waiting for her to get back to us with thoughts, considering that she did mention that she was busy for much of the first half of toDay!!!
Also, my read on him has essentially nothing to do with your read on him; was there anything in particular about the post that you quoted which gave you that impression or? It just... doesn't!!
Another point: do you think I should have a townread on you already?
The singular wowee was for meme purposes; I was busy and skimmed, but also has the greatest meme impact on its own!!!
As an aside, for some reason I thought Dya had voted Penguin; I guess not!!
Also I laughed at the bolded; feels like something probably meme-worthy!!!
What's your read on him by the way, Ash?
Before you open the spoiler of my read on him please:
His discussion of Ash has felt like someone describing their rep in spec chat or something; not really getting much from that except they're probably not w/w, noting that it also does make sense that he'd discuss it quite a bit where he's the only one that he really knows in this game!!!
That aside, his vote on Penguin does actively ping me, considering the thread sentiment towards Penguin at the time; will be interested to see where he goes with that, but my initial take was that it is not a good look for him/not really getting a solving sense from him!!
(No he's not my top suspicion, yes I'm taking questions like this literally!)
I also don't think much about the wagon being "stale", for what it's worth... because there have been very few votes with only 3 mafia in a quiet gamestate where even if Penguin is mafia they're not concerned about his life, and it means essentially nothing except people haven't been voting!!!!
Feels like a lot of the suspicion on Penguin is more... I don't think paranoia is quite the right term per se, but I don't think he's getting quite as much leeway/is lowkey just getting flack for being one of the first to be aggressively serious initially!!
My point is I don't think it's necessarily mafia-driven!!!!
Actually, it feels a bit similar to the suspicion on me early game 8 come to think of it!!!
A few thoughts before I get into this: going into this ISO I was actively ignoring the fact that I'm inclined to be more hesitant about townreading Penguin easily, trying to go with the flow a bit more... not quoting posts because there's only 25 of them, though!!
Stuff like this feels waterfall-y:
Having seen a few posts, I lied; taking into account the fact that he just got off a mafia rand... this simply feels like he's really eager to dig into the game in general I suppose? I get the sense I'll probably be skimming that game at some point though!!
His discontent with the reaction to Hally votes is interesting, considering the fact that it was extremely early in the game; makes me wonder if he just has no chill in early game (later note: sort of, yes)? Saying that each player seems to not have much of a stance in early game feels like a reach, just not entirely sure if it's a town reach or a mafia reach!!
Various chill things!!!
Not really comparing him to game 8 much, considering he'd subbed in pretty late (and I only skimmed his posts at the time anyway)!!
Looking at his overall Ash Lael read... mixed thoughts here where some parts feel decently towny in how he's approaching the thoughts in an evaluatory way; feels like he actively does want to engage with the read/doesn't have TMI about Ash's alignment!!! There's just minor things that ping me which could be stylistic, such as the suspicion on Ash in the last readlist; feels like it omits a lot of points where he did actively like Ash previously!!
From a holistic standpoint, feels like Penguin has been measuring their posts in a towny way; thing is that a lot of it's stuff that I'd like to wait and see where things go, but it's enough for me to put him as light town at the moment!!
Not strictly related but I learned recently that my main issue with doing ISOs is actually that I just don't like having to show my work in lieu of simply updating my own thoughts; working on leaning into that, will be hype to see how it goes!!!
Breaking to say if you haven't voted, go make a vote please!!!!!!!!
We're nearly 3/4s of the way into the day; yes for one thing we're all just getting back into it, but also... would still be useful for people to do that, particularly when over half the game isn't voting at the moment!!!!!
There's no maj on day 1 (starts on day 2), so there's no concerns about us ending the day early!!!!
This has been your voting PSA; actually doing this Penguin ISO now!!!
Another thing is that I feel like we're likely going to run into people having confident opposite reads off of the same meta, which is going to be exciting to see!!!!
Just, meta thoughts in general are particularly hype here!!!!!!
Here's where I'm at, alphabetical tiers:
There are not-insignificant amounts of meta tied into both of the above reads, have touched on frequently enough that I'm not going into detail here!!!
Catty91 - liked the way he's engaged with the thread, felt like they've been able to actively dig into certain things!!!!
Hally - Perhaps my weaker one here; simply feels like they're a lot more chill and giving takes that are originating from a town!brain, just... casual town vibes!!!
All of these have similarities in that they have towny engagement, just in different levels/aspects, if that makes sense!!! That being said, I would n't be overly surprised if there were one (or two) mafia here, but I'm fine with this for now!!
Giving them some space/room to work with
Getting straight to the point here, I think there's a decent amount of guilty feelings for the above tier and considering it's day 1 I am fine with at least actively attempting to give them more pressureless space to work in for toDay; that being said, I've semi-liked a bit of KruZe in particular so far!!
dyachei - Touched on a bit, but I simply think people are attributing posts of theirs to be overly alignment-indicative when their bar of towniness is not that low... that being said, I do want to revisit their read on Penguin earlier, also thinking I'll get a better read on them by EoD hopefully!!!!
Fleur - Not here yet, come hype with us!!!!!
Penguin022 - I've liked certain hints of theirs from my catchup, but actually opening their ISO now/will update!!!
TracingWoodgrains - I should actually open up their ISO again as it feels like I haven't paid much attention, which may just be me as a note!!
It lowkey hit me earlier that I need to be a bit more cautious about this being a 13er instead of a 15er, considering lack of suspicions... makes me a bit wary as well that it feels like my readlist is a bit sort by postcount, but I also am fine with the top half, so going with that for now!!
What was the unfinished thought on me? For the record, I don't really claim to be that difficult to read but people do tend to assume that!!!
Can you elaborate further on your thoughts on Hally? What posts of hers did you find genuine and why?
For TracingWoodgrains, just an overall why? What were your initial thoughts on the slot? Doesn't necessarily have to be a strong read, just whatever you have there would be great!!
Various catchup thoughts:
Somewhat liking how Catty is picking up and integrating naturally into the thread while giving his own takes!!!
DeKay's overall catchup seems fairly solid from the getgo; having spent a decent amount of time being paranoid of them, it just feels very much like the DeKay that I could finally be comfortable with being town, while taking into account the hangups involved!!
Just putting Zen Blade as town, whatever; I still have no idea what a mafia!Zen Blade would be like, but I just keep consistently thinking that his posts are extremely town overall!!!!!!
Daniel's P#172 feels naturally comfortable town!Daniel with similar sort of mindmeldy observations; noting that I'm not calling this a particularly confident read due to essentially fewer data points (meaning this read will probably strengthen later on), but the fact that there are such good vibes early on is a good look!!!
Noting that Dya's mentioned recently in several places/points that they've been getting out of their bussing meta for the past while (months, years?) except for game 8, which I believe because bussing in that position where one of your partners is highly suspected/likely going down just makes sense!! For a few later comments, clarifying that my eyebrow raise at Dya wasn't just because the term/concept of PoE was raised period; it was the concept of it seeming like Penguin was keeping the PoE open in particular, which is a specifically weird thing to say in early game!! In essence, what KruZe said in P#202!!!!
Congrats on the mafia win Ash Lael!! Might be confbiasing a bit, but I legitimately do believe him somewhat in sharing it being alignment-indicative... besides which, sharing a mafia game after having successfully won is just pretty hype to do overall, particularly when it's your first completed game!! Regardless though, I still have a fairly confident townread on Ash just in general, but I shall definitely check out the game linked!!!!
...It's noted that I haven't really gotten much of a strong suspicion so far, will elaborate on shortly!!
Wow that got a bit messy; going to take a moment to organize my thoughts/poke at a few unmentioned things, also do that Penguin ISO!!!