have to /out, sorry for last-minute
Type: Posts; User: myc
have to /out, sorry for last-minute
Well, had fun anyway so I'm still gonna call gg
fwiw I think it would have been fine to either give no compensation (mafia almost killed me anyway and I still had to live one more night to gain a further check) or to announce some kind of mod intervention so there isnt any exploitable asymmetric information due to mod intervention.
anyway, think all in all town recovered nicely from a bad D1 and also props to Helz and yolo for some fine wolfing.
STOP VOTING OUTED PR's. GET ON CONTRAINER P L E A S E
balls: Vote yolo shoot Chuckle
no balls: vote Percy shoot Contrainer
pls no Quas theories now.
open to voting: Chuckle,Contrainer, Ryast,Chem,Percy,yolo,CF
trash votes: Marl,wws
if you really want to resolve D1: Yagami
Yolo-Wagon disappearing FeelsBadMan
Did not evaluate that Marl and Yagami is never a scumteam with 4 Shatt-Voters on Marl today, did not evaluate that Quas/Yagami is never a scum team. Claims to be not here EOD, but waits for Yagami-claim instead of doing sth in the thread. Guy is not *really* thinking about the game, but town can find its balls to vote him here
So you think Quas or Chuckle might be bussing or not? Give me some some evaluation please.
Wanna write sth interesting while waiting for Yagami? I think in your world the Yagami vote is (almost) pure, and you also mentioned a slight townread on CF. So what did scum in your opinion do yesterday? Hope that MafiaHost rands Shatt or does this make Chem very likely scum in your world? Any other partners you see in the Scum!Yagami world?
I told you that for me a possible scumteam with Yagami is Contrainer and Chem. What are your likely scum if Yagami is town?
@Viggorous I dont think the discussion will lead to anything. Ive presented 4 points that lead me to the conclusion that Yagami is prob. town here. Yes, point 2 (about the bussing) starts with my opinion that wolves prob. bus there and then I work under this assumption. Basic inference. Obviously the assumption has not to be right. Was every player literally afk? No, but overall there was not much of a pushback to the Yagami suspicion or any presentation of counter-wagons. Are there other possibilites? Sure, and you can disagree about their probabilites.
Do I agree with your read based on Yagamis posts? Yeah, I do. This was literally my initial suspicion on him, that he just calls Shatt scummy but doesnt do anything to convince the thread. Is he the type of player that I expect to post extensive, well-argumented cases on players? Prob. not, so I do not weight this as much as you.
You are talking about a hypothetical game at this point. There is noone powerwolfing to defend Yagami from my POV. So you are saying the most likely scenario is 1) no bussing and 2) no defending. Ok, go ahead, but I dont believe in this scenario. It's also very obviously not my only reason. I already said that I dont think reading Yagami on his posts will be fruitful for me, at least without any baseline. I didnt even ISO him once this game fyi I strongly advice you to reset for a moment and consider my world, and I will do the same with yours.
Its also not my entire premise, but one aspect of four that overall lead me to my conclusion.
If he is scum there will prob. be bussers, 3 of his voters are very unlikely bussing though, the fourth is confirmed town and the last is Contrainer. So if you accept the premise you have to accepct the conclusion, which is Contrainer is bussing scum.
W.r.t. Yagami's volume: Doesnt really help me, I have no baseline on that player and I dont feel that reading him on logic will be fruitful at all.
2. Obviously thats what I think and it doesnt have to be that way. Again, I think it's more likely that scum would've bussed in this scenario.
3. I dont think killing them would make it worse for him. As I said, you can easily call this framing or just a SPK, and if he doesnt kill them they will most likely push on him again, dont think either is worse than the other. On the other hand, if he lets them live they are strong players spewed town as soon as he flips red.
Btw, good that you quote this part, because I forgot to mention another important aspect
4) Slowest EOD ever for a SvT scenario with more than half of the players gone. Again, more likely to me that this is TvT.
If you dont agree with these points, can you walk me through the alternative?
Scum!Yagami super slips and a lot of the 'voiceful' town-players are onto him, what is scum doing? Not bussing, not presenting alternatives (nobody even wanted to vote the third alternative Ryast to Yagami/Shatt) but instead they decide to go afk?
good morning! so lets see:
obv. the main question is the alignment of Yagami today. I guess out of his ~200 posts there are about 5 I consider constructive content (mainly the stuff about wws & chem), so thats def. not a good look. but
1. Recall that the original Yagami suspicion came from Shatt and me, from my POV 2 towns. This makes it way more liklier that scum just used this initial suspicion than town just converging on a scum D1.
2. Who are the bussers on Yagami? His D1 was terrible, I would strongly suspect at least (!) one busser there, but I dont think he ever is with Quas or Yolo, and even with Chuckle it would be a Hollywood-worthy performance. So just Contrainer left. This may fit, since I dont recall Yagami talking about Contrainer at all, but yeah, overall this also slightly points to Yagami town for me.
3. The NK. From Yagamis POV there is no downside to killing yolo/chuckle, he was already back to the wall and can always call this framing or a SPK. Sure, there may be protective roles, but one was lynched yesterday and you have the same problem every night as scum. For me the NK points more to the strong players (yolo/chuckle) being Mafia or the scum wanting further suspicion between those strong players and Yagami. Sure, there is a wifom component in the NK, acknowledged.
So if Yagami is scum I think Contrainer and prob. Chem (Yagami scumread him yesterday while he was claimed mason, Chem saved him EOD with his vote on Shatt, today Yagami townreads him for a rather weak reason) have high scum equity aswell. But due to the above reasons Im at Yagami 70/30 town here.
- I still consider H4H very strong town, just not an ISO of a player playing his first scum game. Prob. not going to reevaluate ever here, even if subbed out.
- WWS: Not in a team with Yagami (check their interactions about wolf chat and the sandwitch) and if Yagami is town he is prob. on the right side (he breadcrumbed quite a few reads and I can see all of them). I also liked that he went with a weak reason on Shatt yesterday (bad vibes) but could substantiate it when I asked him about. Scum tends to present all the content they can come up with, withholding content is rather towny.
- Helz: I mean even if I would look at him in-depth and found scummy things I couldnt vote on this guy until way later, based on effort alone. So yeah. Is a bit heavy on presentation today with less analysis/conclusions, but overall still strong town to me.
- Quas: Totally agree that any discussion about him is a waste of time, if the guy is stll alive tomorrow we can worry about it then. Based on my impression ITT strong town, just look how many ppl changed their stance on Yagami yesterday after Quas townread him for example. Bad play giving wrong information to town, and I wouldnt flame the healer postgame if he doesnt heal Quas tonight
This finishes the towny part. Some thoughts about the rest:
Chuckle: Think he had a towny D1, but already there at least 50% of his posts were about Yagami. Sinus-Wave progression on Yagami. Generally narrow focus and in part. narrow focus on EOD, acts like only Yagami/Shatt exist. TR Ryast but always adds these tiny hedges towards it. Weak D2 so far, dunno what it means that he 'might' have to look into me.
Yolo: Cant say I read his posts scummy, actually the opposite. Generally reasonable and transparent thought-process. But I consider him a strong player, and so far there has been a lot of level 0 stuff from him. His TR are consensus, his most likely scenario today is a pure-wagon on a heavily suspected player. Yesterday he claimed to have played a lot with Shatt and made this case against her acting unusual, but already her second last town game invalidated his conclusion. Leads me to the conclusion that he prob. should have known that she can play aggressive as town.
Ryast: In a way similar to Yolo, cant say I read his posts especially scummy. Again its more indirect stuff: He is close to TR the whole playerbase, there seems to be no criticial evaluation that prob. one or more of the 'towny' persons are scum. Still think him claiming to go back to sleep and then responding 5mins later to a suspicion on him is slightly scummy. Him TR Yagami (shortly after Quas TR Yagami) for saying that the top-wagons contain scum (!) looks suspicious to me.
Contrainer: Well. Can be the busser on Yagami or looks scummy for his consensus SR on Yagami/Shatt yesterday. I also think he may fit with Ryast/Yolo, since both of them voted on his wagon yesterday but dont really talk about him.
Marl: I know he can shift up a gear as town, so this is a let-down so far. Prob. not in a team with Contrainer (his only TR yesterday).
CF: I remember one actual read he gave, a TR on Chem. No help to town so far.
Percy: A lot of "going to sleep now, cu tomorrow"-like posts. Asked me for past games D1, still no evaluation. Bit of a discrepancy between his evaluation of Shatt and Yagami, voted Shatt due to being top-poster with no impact, which fits Yagami very well aswell. TR Yagami due to being 'a trifle aggravated' though. Dunno, more stances needed.
Chem: Hasnt really pinged me so far, but I also considered him mason D1. In some sense an 'obvious' partner to Yagami. I think him protesting against the mason claim and only accepting it under the condition of retracting on D1 is rather towny, if Quas is town wouldnt it be mafia-jackpot to be seen as mason with him?
Vigg: Havent looked into him yet, and if I did I wouldnt dare to give a read atp
So yeah, overall I tend to the Yagami town world, but not ready to base the game on it. If you think Yagami is scum I would like to hear possible partners and how you expect the scum team to act w.r.t. bussing yesterday.
wws prob town. yagami prob town. not sure about marl, but a random hit at best.
ppl need to look at the heart of the scumblock: ryast/yolo/chuckle/contrainer - 2 in here at least. @ me if you have exclusions within there.
thats where I am, more tomorrow.
Quas discussion :zZz:
Yolo/Ryast/Chuckle discussion :fire:
@Helz From my POV the switch from top-scum to town to top-scum is questionable at least. It's not like there is significant new info incoming. Personally I cant even understand how Yagami's explanation of him not-understanding the yolo-post would change ones read that hard, obviously Yagami can come up with an explanation as scum aswell. I guess you saw it similar, so anyway. At least for the last switch to top-scum again I see almost no reason though. Reading his progression I would expect him to widen the pool of targets after townreading Yagami, but he stays between Yagami/Shatt. Waiting for his elaboration though.
@MrChuckleteeth Your Yagami progression doesnt make sense to me. After Yagami explained why exactly he didnt understand that yolo post there were a lot of words like 'genuine', 'towny' etc. in your read on him, how exactly did he end up as top-scum again?
@Helz You seem to have left 40mins before EOD, you thought the wagons wouldnt change anyway?
and if you have time also add one sentence w.r.t. Percy, still town because you want him to be town?
will give a quick dump of my thoughts rn, sorry to everyone who prefers the oneliners.
think the towners rn are sth like Chem, Lord, Chuckle, Helz, H4H
as far as I understand the mason role is always town, so they either are scum-buddies and risked to encounter real masons or they are just town. strongly tend to the latter.
Consider the thought-process of Chuckle and Helz very transparent and reasonable. Sure, tunneling is easy as scum and there might be a scum in there mirroring the town, but this is nothing I will worry about on D1.
There were some things about H4H I didnt really like in the beginning, but conditional on this being her 6th game she is actually my top-town. Useless things like her randoming the mafia team and her aggressively calling out ppl as scum is nothing I relate with an inexperienced player (they tend to be a lot more reserved in my experience). Sure, she might be a natural or just good at mimicking the playstyle here, but I give her like 90/10 town.
Then it gets a bit murky. I kinda liked the post of yoloswag w.r.t. Shattiel, on the very least it shows some effort. Didnt like how fast he dropped the case though, claimed to have played a fair bit with her but then instantly rests the case after I link her second most recent town game. meh.
The Yagami-situation: Dont think it's as easy as Lord wants it to be, personally I read him scummy even before his supposed 'lie'. I will definetely have serious problems to reevaluate this slot, because he gives information very selectively, which I generally view scummy (it's a basic psychological fact that its better to not speak about your own lies/faults etc. and just ignore them). I also consider his latest scumlist (chem/chuckle/helz/me) close to lol-catting.
Shattiel: Okish start, in my recollection she tried to generate content early. Claims to have a balanced meta, but Im worrying a bit of the lack of town-reads she has given so far, from what I read she tends to breadcrumb them in the thread.
Ryast: Still consider his entrance and reaction rather scummy. Ppl might trash this read (prob. for good reasons), but I find it at least noteworthy that he claims to go back to sleep, but reacts 5 min later to a suspicion of me even though the thread was dead at this point. Really think that if you want to go back to sleep you do it immediately, at least this is how it works for most humans. Think his tone later was good, but the Yagami tr also doesnt feel right to me. TR this slot mainly due to him claiming that there is 1-2 scum in the voters of the top-wagons?! Looks like a trivial statement to me.
Percy: Seems like a nice guy to play with, but content-wise I consider him really lacking. Cant see how you tr this slot rn and see game-solving going on.
Dont have any particular thoughts on the rest.