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    Automated Just saw this! I wish I could have, but school...

    Quote Originally Posted by Pilica (#79)
    Most people were already @ed except:

    @Psycho666Soldier wanna join as a Sub? Would love to Play with you again
    Just saw this! I wish I could have, but school is a bit too hectic for me right now to join a game of mafia
  2. Day 3#3466

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed If WWS is town, then Para, iaafr, Dels, Chem and...

    If WWS is town, then Para, iaafr, Dels, Chem and Ran need some evaluation. Ran trying to get a completely separate counter-wagon when WWS was a perfectly realistic option for him makes him look good, while iaafr at least helping push Amy early on is a pretty good look. Para was on the counter-wagon, Dels was afk, and Chemist was afraid to make a decision. Those three are probably the priorities, but consider that iaafr is the only option for help with the counter-wagon if Para flips town. Manti is also possible, but he was around. and seemed unconcerned with the result.

    I want this to be made clear: Don't lynch Dels unless he survives longer than necessary and the POE falls apart.

    If we're looking at a bus, I truly believe both Mill's and Zack's efforts, but Zack was in a better position to take advantage from it and did so with the 112 lynch. I think this should be a last resort case, though, or if you truly believe the wagonomics point to a bus.

    I honestly think that's about all I have to say. Godspeed, everyone.

    @GeneralHankerchief

    Fire away at WaywardSon.
  3. Day 3#3454

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed Ok, apparently I was supposed to work today and...

    Ok, apparently I was supposed to work today and I'm 20 minutes late, so that's great. I'm gonna shoot WWS, I think, so I'm gonna try and prepare a quick legacy and pew pew.
  4. Day 3#3453

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed *drop-in

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3447)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3444)

    There's a small part of me that's concerned that your drop seemed facilitated by and focused around defending yourself against me, but this doesn't feel cornered or caught out or anything, so you definitely pass here.
    drop?
    *drop-in
  5. Day 3#3452

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I thinnk at this point it would be my points from...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3439)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3235)
    And again to reiterate, I do not have a problem with any of the way you are handling this.

    You are entitled to your opinion just as I am mine.

    I could be wrong and you are right.

    I could be right and you are wrong.

    Having these arguments is part of the game, and why we are playing, and the goal for both of us (I'd hope) is that the right side wins regardless of whether it is our side or not. (of the argument, not factions)

    okay i'm definitely leaving now
    This is all correct

    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3238)

    Ran if we're wrong on Para here how likely is Maple a wolf for you?
    Jumps back up a ways probably? I would have to reevaluate all my reads in that light.

    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3274)
    Also, has anyone else gone over my cases for potential Amy partners other than Dels? I'd like some feedback and peer review on some of it, because I feel like my conclusions based on behavior and vote analysis isn't really lining up with my partner conclusions.
    Can get there but it will take some time. Specific post you want response on?

    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.
    1. Para. Is scum, or if not, I need his flip to blow up my worldview. Makes sense as scum in ways no other cases do to me rn.
    2/3. WWS. He's barely contributing and a lot of town seems hung up on thinking we just solved the game d1 and it was scum/scum wagons. I think this is unlikely to the point of absurdity, but rest of town is telling me I am wrong. I can recognize I can't make that judgment easily.
    3/2. Chemist. Similar to WWS, people other than me are just hung up on his EoD1 and tossing around a flurry of stuff. I actually find the case against Chemist more compelling than the case against WWS personally, but I'm still lukewarm on Chemist overall and I am not the entire game.
    I thinnk at this point it would be my points from my Amy ISO against wolf!WWS, because that probably ends up being my shot here. I do understand your reasons for Para and Chemist, and I would love to flip Para for you and everyone else like me and Mill who need it. But I do think WWS is the best POE choice here, considering I'm having conflicting levels of confidence in my town and scum pings.
  6. Day 3#3449

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed You guys are fine. It is stressful, but your...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3423)
    Psycho, if I can say something, I actually sort of agree with Iaafr here. You feel a bit stressed atm.

    My shot list is Wws/Chemist/Manti.

    Other people have their shot lists.

    I don't think you should shoot Para. You want to shoot Para.

    I will not judge you if you do.

    You think there are reasons for literally all 3 of my PoE to be town. You are not wrong. I have literally spent days accepting Chemist as town, and was willing to accept Manti as town as well for a lot of today and I still ultimately agree with Zack he is 3rd in line. Your cases are not bad. It's just, someone has to be scum.

    What Zack is saying is correct. Any shot in the PoE is understandable.

    If this was a lynch, I'd place my vote and I'd be happy with others placing theirs and trusting the process.

    It's not a lynch though, it's a shot. But that doesn't mean you need to freak out about this, and you can still trust the process.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3426)
    And to be honest if I had the gun right now I would probably be freaking out so I actually understand your position and I think we have been feeling like "Oh, Psycho has the gun, that's wonderful because it's Psycho" and so we've felt pretty calm about it but we forget that it's probably not calm for you
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3431)
    I'll try to start being less critical and negative as well. sorry if I've been stressing you psycho
    You guys are fine. It is stressful, but your reactions were mostly intended by me, so I'm not mad or anything. It's not really contributing as much as the decision in general is.
  7. Day 3#3444

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed There's a small part of me that's concerned that...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3392)
    Also psycho I read your post about me and I would say, making conclusions is not exactly what I am known for. I like to find townreads and form a PoE, within that I generally am very uncertain where to go and i am way more likely to want to confer with people and find a concensus option (of even sheep someone) then he'll for what I want

    The only reason I've given a definitive view on para was because it was essentially expected of me. I tried to push for wws yesterday but people said no so I dropped it. I would disagree I haven't made any conclusions but they are ultimately malleable and about where my PoE is yes

    Also I said people didn't need to read the post to ran if they didn't want to! It felt relevant to me considering ran and is massive philosophical difference
    There's a small part of me that's concerned that your drop seemed facilitated by and focused around defending yourself against me, but this doesn't feel cornered or caught out or anything, so you definitely pass here.
  8. Day 3#3443

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed This made me lol

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3391)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3388)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3378)
    I dunno, I might shoot iaafr.
    what the $#@!? don't do that.
    why are you so obssessed with finding a "valuable villager" to kill for no reason

    just kill in the poe ffs
    This made me lol
  9. Day 3#3438

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I'm good with this response, and it was mostly a...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3372)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3349)
    But you don't know if they're scum or town yet. lhf is an umbrella that contains certain actions and playstyle snafus that can come from town or scum, hence why they're "low-hanging fruit," because you have to weigh it against how painfully obvious the lynch would be. The fact you didn't even consider that they could "just be town" that are lynchable makes me doubt your perspective. Especially when in that same post, you're claiming to usually think more along Ran's mentality.

    It seems very certain about the POE, when your own words suggest that you'd have a greater sense of doubt when considering how right you are at this point.
    I am not really sure what you're saying. I don't know if they are town or scum but I am not thinking they are likely to be town right now. Of course I've thought about chemist being town, I believed until today that he was and I think most of us did, but at this point it's not holding up and it's hard to find scum elsewhere. Wws I have never thought was town though, no.just because I am a defender of lhf does not mean I defend every lhf, sometimes I do scumread them if I don't think they are townie.

    I wouldn't say I don't have doubt but I feel good about all the discussions we have had leading up to this, and I've also made the choice to trust para. Outside of my list, then, the only other scum can be ran who I've admitted I am paranoid about but definitely would not be my first shot, or iaafr/Zack/mill crab which we agree really does not seem like it has a deepwolf.
    I'm good with this response, and it was mostly a nitpicky thing that just kind of stood out to me, and I wanted to bring it up to discussion to see how you'd react.
  10. Day 3#3434

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I also should add that I probably always shoot...

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3369)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3367)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3355)
    I don't see how wws is a better Lynch than shot at all

    resolving wagons is something that helps us a lot on the same day

    and they're both kinda keystones to eliminating or supporting certain worlds

    I think you're just wrong that wws is a bad shot

    chem idk
    I can concede on WWS, because resolving the d1 wagon does become valuable today. But I think there would be good vca in seeing who lynches Chemist regardless of their alignment.
    the value in shooting chemist is that you stay alive and a wolf dies
    I also should add that I probably always shoot WWS before Chem because better info, and the fact that I see a higher likelihood of WWS as scum independently.
  11. Day 3#3432

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed This is a dumb oversight by me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3362)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3359)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3337)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3288)
    The only lynches on the table d1 were Amy and WWS with a small side of 112.

    Me and flush weren't actually in danger, and a big cfd was more or less out of the cards.
    You were in the lead with 4 at one point. This kind of missing detail feels towny, though.
    I admit I forgot there was ever a time when manti had 4 votes as well but this is how I view day 1 as well, despite the low vote counts I don't think manti or flush was ever a viable end of day wagon, I didn't get that impression at least. When ran and para went on manti it looked like a maybe but even then I assumed it would be wws/Amy wagons (hence my saying if I didn't fall asleep I was going to have to move)
    well thats because manti self-voted and chemist wasn’t very serious about voting him. the 4 is artificial
    This is a dumb oversight by me.
  12. Day 3#3429

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I know you guys see I'm coming around to WWS, but...

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3358)
    I hate all the shots you want (para manti) and want the shots you don't (ran wws)

    so that sucks
    I know you guys see I'm coming around to WWS, but I really don't think Ran is ever my shot today.
  13. Day 3#3424

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I can get this take, but I think A) That kind of...

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3351)
    ran is the most stubborn player in the game rn and I haven't seen them like change a single opinion based on anything but their own rigid and kinda weird worldview

    most of their posts last night are essentially reiterating and defending their worldview without any momentum towards like... improving it

    idk man I don't like it
    I can get this take, but I think A) That kind of stubbornness can be really towny and B) your underestimating their ability to evolve. They tried looking outside of Para. He came around on you and Manti in a big way, and that was happening over the process of D2. But also on that process, he came back around to Para and felt 112 was a mistake. So it makes a lot of sense for him to be more stubborn about his leanings here.
  14. Day 3#3417

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed This list feels more sensible to my leanings,...

    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3350)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon
    1)WWS - Clears up the D1 wagons. If he's V the wolves lose a mislynch and have to kill him before f3. If he's a wolf we pop bottles and you help us solve the last wolf.

    2)Paratroopa - Most likely wolf on the WWS wagon if you're confident WWS is a villager. If he's town we get a high-quality contributor and my butt gets kicked out of my tunnel.

    3)Manti - Less obviously a wolf to me but it clears Para and Ran for me if he's a wolf, and if he's a villager I have confidence that he will contribute as a peeked villager (see Sports Mash when I confirmed him there)
    This list feels more sensible to my leanings, even though I'm doubting both Manti and Para as scum incredibly. But They are POE candidates right now. But I'm beginning to think resolving WWS really does just clear things up for the rest of the phase.
  15. Day 3#3410

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed You can chill. I'm not actually shooting iaafr...

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3406)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3403)
    WWS has a pretty reasonable chance of flipping wolf and if he does flip villager it is BY FAR the least damaging misfire you could make, because it still resolves the d1 wagons and eliminates a mislynch.

    If you shoot iaafr or dels, then you die, a person everyone already thinks is town is confirmed town, there's no real tangible new information or analysis, and dies tonight. So you basically just kill yourself for no benefit.
    @Psycho666Soldier

    this is important

    fine whatever if you don't want to shoot wws but at least stick to someone in the POE
    You can chill. I'm not actually shooting iaafr or Dels. I was just reaction testing.
  16. Day 3#3408

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed *Sigggggh* I'm shooting WWS, aren't I?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3347)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.
    Wws chemist manti

    Wws for reasons have already said, think the Amy stuff is weak distancing. You say "why would they" "and if they did, why is it so weak" but sometimes scum just make a bad choice to distance and they can't find compelling reasons for it so it's not the hard line you mentioned

    Chem ultimately agree with what I think mill crab rementioned that even if it's hard to see why chemist acted the way he did as wolf, it's harder to see it as town

    Manti by Poe and because can see his posts today having a wolf agenda, plus generally not having direction days 1+2

    And because I don't think it is anyone else

    Phoneposting so short answers sorry
    *Sigggggh*

    I'm shooting WWS, aren't I?
  17. Day 3#3405

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed The opinion is at least noted.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3335)
    dels is the person who I'd say you should trust me on he's obvtown but you don't trust me that much rn xdxd
    The opinion is at least noted.
  18. Day 3#3399

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed This is actually a really good point I thought of...

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3394)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3393)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3329)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3327)
    I'm honestly becoming increasingly less confident in my townread of iaafr, and the only thing holding me back is the back and forth with him and Amy.
    i am extremely confident he is town if that makes you feel better.
    It does, but you were also hella sure on 112 being scum. That's not to say you're wrong about everything. But I also felt pretty good about 112 being scum and that was enough to make me look at the two left on the WWS wagon, and it's hard to believe one other scum wasn't on there with Amy. Not impossible, just kind of hard to move past.
    whoa, back up

    being confident on a townread is completely different than a confident scumread

    I can say a random name is town and have a 75% chance of being right. Whereas even a 50% wolfread is pretty confident.
    This is actually a really good point I thought of as I was posting it. I wasn't trying to say your townread of him wasn't valuable. More that I think everyone had felt that way about him until the mislynch put doubts in our minds, so it's not going to stop me from quesitoning him.
  19. Day 3#3393

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed It does, but you were also hella sure on 112...

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3329)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3327)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3276)
    I think Zack and iaafr are both fairly townie in their methods of trying to tinfoil me. Like, I totally understand the feeling that things aren't really lining up and looking at what that means for the people you're townreading.

    $#@! I have to go read Dels don't I?
    I'm honestly becoming increasingly less confident in my townread of iaafr, and the only thing holding me back is the back and forth with him and Amy.
    i am extremely confident he is town if that makes you feel better.
    It does, but you were also hella sure on 112 being scum. That's not to say you're wrong about everything. But I also felt pretty good about 112 being scum and that was enough to make me look at the two left on the WWS wagon, and it's hard to believe one other scum wasn't on there with Amy. Not impossible, just kind of hard to move past.
  20. Day 3#3383

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I think this would hold more weight if Manti...

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3311)
    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#1106)
    well i am not likely to be here for eod so in the interest of wagonomics

    heres your 3-3 wagons

    ##Vote FTFlush
    Quote Originally Posted by Mafia Host (#1107)
    Mountainous Desperado Day 1 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 Ampharos Psycho666Soldier (78), Mill Crab (112), CatgirlMaple (59)
    3 WaywardSon Chemist1422 (88), 112 (63), Paratroopa (97)
    3 FTFlush Slimy Soab (116), iaafr (170), Visorslash (16)
    2 CatgirlMaple Dels (124), Ranmilia (35)
    1 Slimy Soab Ampharos (56)
    1 iaafr FTFlush (46)
    1 Not voting WaywardSon (18)

    View Vote History

    Day 1 ends at 9:00 PM EDT on Thursday, September 12th, 2019. There are 1568336460000 remaining.

    Requested by iaafr at 0 days, 1 hours, 17 minutes, 6 seconds remaining.
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1109)
    ##Vote CatgirlMaple

    I'll trade with one of yall so this makes more sense
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1113)
    ##Vote WaywardSon

    Ty
    interesting way to move from amy to wws
    I think this would hold more weight if Manti ended on WWS, but it's still a solid catch.
  21. Day 3#3380

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed Is it rabbit season? I can pretend it is.

    Is it rabbit season? I can pretend it is.
  22. Day 3#3378

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I dunno, I might shoot iaafr.

    I dunno, I might shoot iaafr.
  23. Day 3#3377

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed iaafr won't like this, but I like this shotlist...

    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#3309)
    Chem
    CGM
    iaafr
    iaafr won't like this, but I like this shotlist best despite Chem being at the top.

    I won't shoot iaafr, though.
  24. Day 3#3374

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed That's fair, and I can jive with that. But how...

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3357)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3352)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3296)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon
    wws
    chemist
    manti

    i’ve already covered this so much i don’t want to type it all up again because there is nuance that’s hard to get across in a few words

    I think the team is wws/chemist. manti and ran are the next in my poe i guess but i don’t believe ran is wolfy at all (just flush kill looks poor) and i just explained my manti read to ?
    This is honestly my least favorite list because A) I'm still struggling to see WWS or Chemist as scum and B) I don't think either are better as shots than they are lynches. Chemist maybe because I could see his WIM coming around, but I think WWS has resigned to just not really being engaged with the thread regardless of his alignment.

    But I will still consider those shots if that's what the majority really want.
    i mean how do wolves win if they cant mislynch wws or chemist if they’re both villagers

    they are taken off the table if you shoot them. i really dont think its that bad even if they aren’t wolves
    That's fair, and I can jive with that. But how do you value shooting someone who you feel is more wolfy in comparison to that?

    Assume, for a moment, that you found someone more wolfy than WWS or Chemist. I assume you'd rather shoot them first? And that's part of my problem with shooting WWS or Chemist, is I honestly don't think they are as scummy as everyone else.
  25. Day 3#3367

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I can concede on WWS, because resolving the d1...

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#3355)
    I don't see how wws is a better Lynch than shot at all

    resolving wagons is something that helps us a lot on the same day

    and they're both kinda keystones to eliminating or supporting certain worlds

    I think you're just wrong that wws is a bad shot

    chem idk
    I can concede on WWS, because resolving the d1 wagon does become valuable today. But I think there would be good vca in seeing who lynches Chemist regardless of their alignment.
  26. Day 3#3363

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed This post kind of gives me pause, because there's...

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3307)
    lol

    Hmmmmmmm I dont wanna die tonight

    I don't have enough time
    This post kind of gives me pause, because there's a weird urgent concern of being killed today(tonight, but semantics) that Manti hasn't shown before. Like, before, Manti almost seemed to relish in it. But when it seems like my shot is leaning towards him with a decent amount of support from the rest, the tone changes.

    I dunno, scum Manti probably wouldn't post like that because it's obvious, or would do it for WIFOM, so I don't think I can weigh it against the purity of the shotslist.
  27. Day 3#3356

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed As an addendum to my response to Slimy Soab's...

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3303)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon
    Ran
    WWS
    Maple?
    As an addendum to my response to @Slimy Soab's list, I do think Manti is a decent shot. He has some scum equity when it comes to wagonomics and general handling of the thread. And most importantly, I think he becomes instantly more valuable this phase if he's cleared. But some of these recent posts have made me doubt it's right. Like his shotslist feels very thoughtful. Plus, it's a bit difficult to pair him with Amy.

    Chemist, I'm also not big on your list for reasons I've said before, but I do think Ran at least qualifies as the "valuable as cleared" shot, so I'm open to the idea. Ran is also definitely a mislynch waiting to happen if they get to endgame as town.
  28. Day 3#3352

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed This is honestly my least favorite list because...

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3296)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon
    wws
    chemist
    manti

    i’ve already covered this so much i don’t want to type it all up again because there is nuance that’s hard to get across in a few words

    I think the team is wws/chemist. manti and ran are the next in my poe i guess but i don’t believe ran is wolfy at all (just flush kill looks poor) and i just explained my manti read to ?
    This is honestly my least favorite list because A) I'm still struggling to see WWS or Chemist as scum and B) I don't think either are better as shots than they are lynches. Chemist maybe because I could see his WIM coming around, but I think WWS has resigned to just not really being engaged with the thread regardless of his alignment.

    But I will still consider those shots if that's what the majority really want.
  29. Day 3#3349

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed But you don't know if they're scum or town yet. ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3343)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3278)
    You're telling me that you don't see Chemist as lhf right now? I know this was a discussion on D1, and I mean absolutely no disrespect to his play on a whole. I actually think Chemist is a solid player that I love being in the same playerlist as. But if he's town, the only reason people haven't voted him is because he's TWTBAW(Too wolfy to be a wolf, for Ran). He is the easiest lynch to get away with right now and be able to write off as, "Well everyone was saying it," "He wasn't helping himself," etc. I'd also argue that WWS is lhf who is only protected by wagonomics.
    In this case I meant the term "lhf" as "lhf who I think are just town". Scum can be lhf too, technically, yes.
    But you don't know if they're scum or town yet. lhf is an umbrella that contains certain actions and playstyle snafus that can come from town or scum, hence why they're "low-hanging fruit," because you have to weigh it against how painfully obvious the lynch would be. The fact you didn't even consider that they could "just be town" that are lynchable makes me doubt your perspective. Especially when in that same post, you're claiming to usually think more along Ran's mentality.

    It seems very certain about the POE, when your own words suggest that you'd have a greater sense of doubt when considering how right you are at this point.
  30. Day 3#3345

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I'd be willing to shoot Para from this list, with...

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3295)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3291)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3290)
    Ideally the shot wouldn't happen until I was able to be in the thread but I work for 3 more hours lol
    Remind me again, in case you aren't here. Who are your top shot candidates in order?
    Dels para chemist are three slots I think dampen the wcs of a confirmed who is taken out of the poe that wolves will eventually kill. Para is an extraordinarily boring slot with boring posts. Dels is boring in a different way in that they put me to sleep. Finally chemist, he had that eod1 thing and helped kill a wolf but has been ultra lacking since. I think I could convince him to come play if it comes to it.

    Wws unless he seriously steps up his game I dont even think wolves kill him if he gets confirmed v. In a vaccum his slot should be v just cause basic ww mechanics but lol

    Zack and crab voted a wolf and are pretty well safe for now. Doesnt smell like a bus and they're both likely to get shot before lylo anyway.

    Iaafr is a slot that I dont think it's time to go after yet. He might die at night.

    Shooting me gives me no info

    Ran I see people are turning on. I haven't had a chance to give his slot a real good looking over yet, and if hes v thatd suck but if theres a v good case against him idk I could be wrong. I'd rather get him myself.
    I'd be willing to shoot Para from this list, with a tiny tiny tiny chance of shooting Dels. I honestly feel Chemist is town, but feel he would be more valuable as a lynch if people are certain about him needing to die. I'm doubting the Para read, but he's pretty easily teamed with Amy, and he becomes much more valuable if he's cleared. Especially if he can be around for this EOD.

    I think Ran is also a good shot for the reason of being a good voice to be cleared, but highly doubt him being scum. And WWS is another that I think is better as a lynch.
  31. Day 3#3337

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed You were in the lead with 4 at one point. This...

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3288)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2983)
    like, most people who were present at eod were always gonna vote wws or amy, except para specifically
    The only lynches on the table d1 were Amy and WWS with a small side of 112.

    Me and flush weren't actually in danger, and a big cfd was more or less out of the cards.
    You were in the lead with 4 at one point. This kind of missing detail feels towny, though.
  32. Day 3#3332

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I also can't shake the Dels tinfoil. Like...when...

    I also can't shake the Dels tinfoil. Like...when I think about his positions, they seem less clear than his general disposition. He speaks in a way that feels very genuine, but his conclusions are few and far between. He landed on Manti both days despite hypothesizing about plenty of people. Only hard stance I really remember him taking is his defense of Para, and even that's deteriorated since d1.

    He has a big presence and seems busy, but it feels like he's effectively...done nothing. And these last few pages really made me start thinking that. The icing on the cake was the big post detailing the marson game that elaborated his viewpoint farther than I think was necessary.

    Then I think, "But he said he had to leave and kept coming back to post," and it made me think of how towny that feels because I do that $#@! all the time.
  33. Day 3#3327

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I'm honestly becoming increasingly less confident...

    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3276)
    I think Zack and iaafr are both fairly townie in their methods of trying to tinfoil me. Like, I totally understand the feeling that things aren't really lining up and looking at what that means for the people you're townreading.

    $#@! I have to go read Dels don't I?
    I'm honestly becoming increasingly less confident in my townread of iaafr, and the only thing holding me back is the back and forth with him and Amy.
  34. Day 3#3319

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed The point about Manti is really critical. That...

    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3263)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2874)
    CatgirlMaple/Ampharos ISO:

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#265)
    iaafr either gets the gun, or gets shot by a 3 poster at rand. When he inevitably flips mafia and we lose the game in f5 to an Amy/MillCrab team, the 3 poster will act like they were the only villager with their head on straight.

    Which, let's be real, they probably are.
    Pretty innocuous post, but it seemed to put Amy a bit on the defensive, even if in a joking manner. Probably NAI, but could be the type of distancing I'd expect Manti to do.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#312)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#305)
    I... disagree? I'm pretty sure Para's got a bunch of meta on Chemist so I don't think it's an unreasonable take for him to have.
    That sort of post is ToS SOP

    It isnt alignment indicative and pretending it is is pretty lolzy
    Another light interaction that could go either way, but if it's not w/w/w between Amy, Para, Chemist, I could see where Manti is going for indirect distancing by discrediting Amy's defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1029)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1027)
    I think there's always a wolf between Amy and 112, possibly both
    If there is, this game is insanely easy lol

    My nuts coming into the thread was saying vote 112

    I dont really have any Amy thoughts cause I haven't read her posts
    Throws some blanket shade on Amy here, but ultimately goes with the "no thoughts" route while happy to slam a gut read on 112.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1045)
    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#1043)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    ##Vote Ampharos
    I mean, it was more a joke/wagonomics vote than anything, but he did put the vote down on Amy at some point, so minimal points.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1149)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1145)
    no right now after reviewing isos i still find wws wolfier than ampharos
    I doubt amy dies before the shot

    Just me feelz
    Kind of an odd stance to take here, but it sort of seems like it eggs on those doubting an Amy vote.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1141)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1138)
    reread the iso and the perspective makes sense for a sort of sassy villager who doesnt have enough time to be useful still being sassy and also getting pinged by zack's nittiness
    Viewing it through the lense of someone who would have hated a wolf rand, I think that's in line.

    Granted, i only read 5 posts in either direction of her voting
    Worth noting Manti was the lead wagon at this point with 4-3-2-2, with Amy being down at 2. Manti is being cool as a cucumber, and while voting town Flush, opens up the discussion of whether iaafr should trust his villager read on Amy. Seems like it would be wiser to leave Amy be and focus on the other options of Flush and WWS. The last post is a bit hedgey, but it feels more like, "here's what I feel, but don't take my word for it."

    My next thought was, "Why is he pushing for Amy instead of FTF? It's because he was voting FTF out of self-pres. I think it's kind of interesting he makes a small push for Amy as wolf after the Flush vote, but never tries to vote her here in hopes of self-preserving through an actual scumread. But ultimately, it seems like shading Amy negatively here after it looks like she could be escaping the lynch is a good look for Manti. Especially when you consider voting Amy would actually be better for both of them when either flip.


    Ultimately, there's enough light interacting and dancing around the subject that Manti could be partnered with Amy, but I actually feel there's more that lends to being unaligned with Amy. Since it's Manti, it's hard to weigh that against the evidence. But of the likely candidates, this ISO kind of made me feel like he's on the bottom of the list.
    So something that I think also needs to be considered here is that right before I left at EOD, Manti grilled me about why I was wavering on the Amy wagon after he and Visor had voted her up to 5. Manti is honestly the reason I stayed on that wagon. Forcing me to think critically about why I was having doubts, and engaging why WWS probably doesn't go over in a w/v WWS/Amy world. So, like, he would've spent EOD getting two different people to either doubt their town read on Amy or stick to her wagon. And then to just not commit to the wagon and let everyone else take that credit doesn't feel correct?

    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2879)
    Ranmilia/Ampharos ISO:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#653)
    Stepping back and looking holistically, this is where my brain ends up at:

    - Lurker trouble. Maple, FTFlush, WWS, Amy and Visorslash all do not have enough things-that-process-as-content-to-me for my brain to get a grasp on. I think there is likely at least one scum within this group. But they can't all be scum, and it's hard to say which. Need to hear more from these people.

    Visorslash has provided an explanation for this, full sympathies, hugs, life is what it is, I hope whatever it is works out. I won't be looking there further today.

    Psycho was on this list as well when I went to bed, but came in swinging with some juicy analysis and actual pushes.
    #617 in particular I think is strong.

    - Paratroopa stands at the center of a nexus of evil. You want a hard read, here you go: Either Para or the people interacting with him in the early midday are scum, or both. I think at least one scum lies within Para, Maple, Ampharos.

    I got a slightly scummy read from Para's early posting, especially the jokevote to No Cuddle. That is now muddled by knowledge that the meta here is not to push people early. Buuuut.. #537

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#537)
    I don't have any scumreads, they're just not townreads. I don't think anyone has really done anything so far that's super agenda-y or weird

    Snap judgment on your push is town
    Naw, naw naw naw naw naw. "I don't have any scumreads" is not something to still be saying near the halfway point of the day, not even in a passive meta. Town reads are easy to generate - scum knows exactly who is town and can truthfully call out what town things they are doing. Scum reads are what we need as town. We need to find the scum and vote them out, people who are not doing this are likely to be the scum.

    ##Vote Paratroopa

    Also willing to vote up:
    CatgirlMaple
    Ampharos

    Undecided on:
    FTFlush
    SlimySoab
    WaywardSon

    Null for today:
    Visorslash

    Somewhat Townie Vibes:
    Hedron Crab
    iaafr
    Chemist

    Solid Trust So Far:
    112
    Dels
    Psycho
    While Paratroopa is the focus of this post, this is where the "nexus of evil" argument comes in, and they're not shy about including Amy in their POE, specifically willing to vote her up along with CatgirlMaple. Since they end up voting Manti instead, perhaps this was just a weak distance attempt, but ehh.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#679)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#678)

    Can you explain what in particular makes you think this? Were there any specific interactions that stood out to you?

    @Ranmilia
    Well, I've just been posting on Para. Other people also mentioned Para as scummy (ref 112's posts linked in my post above, or Chemist's #244)... but Maple in #306 is the only one who bit on 112's accusation, dropped a vote on Para and has kept it there since, with very low content overall, and an actual train on Para not materializing.

    In #248, Ampharos responds to Chemist's #244 with something that could just be a joke, but also lightly throws shade on Chemist saying Para is scummy.
    In #275 similar behavior reappears in response to iaafr pairing Para+Amy.
    #314 Amy light defends Para AGAIN.
    #341 Drops vote on Soab, admittedly for a post I find slightly scummy as well, but no real case or serious push on Soab.
    #352 Switches to WWS after Chemist does, WWS remains currently the vote leader.

    Ampharos looking even worse to me on the ISO/focused reread. However, some of this scumminess is coming from defending Para. This is why I say it's a nexus, this triangle of attacking/defending Para. Scum are attacking or defending him, which one, I'm not sure yet.
    Interesting that they took the opportunity to throw a bunch of shade out at Amy when I asked for clarification and said almost nothing about Manti. Again, not ending up voting Amy at all takes away from this a bit, but it's still a great look, especially considering I was the only one voting Amy at the time. I feel like if this was a wolf trying to set their self up for a potential bus, Ran would have capitalized on the fruits of their labor. It also just generally feels like Ran felt the need to sort Amy after I had questioned for elaboration.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#815)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#803)
    I find it kinda interesting that with all the terms Ranmilia was unfamiliar with and asked for clarification, ISO wasn't one of them. I didn't think that was really well-known nomenclature outside of MU/POG and the meaning isn't immediately obvious.

    it got me thinking maybe someone mentioned iso in wolfchat with ran or something, but there's also a button there, and it also may be a more widespread term than I thought.

    also it's a stupid thing to even bring up or think about so meh
    That one I figured out from the buttons. Very useful button.

    Speaking of, just finished Soab's. A lot of spam, but also a lot of interactive content. I like it. Overall upgrade on Soab to won't vote day 1. Could be spammy scum but one of the more interactive posters and highly engaged, putting themselves out there in a way that should be catchable later.

    #376 In particular good summary of Ampharos that matches my thoughts.
    Feels good about Slimy, and advocates feeling similar about his doubt on Ampharos. Again, it seemed unnecessary to share negative thoughts on Amy at this point in the threadflow.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#899)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#888)
    Don't hate the Manti wagon I guess but it's not where I feel strongest.
    This is why it's a good wagon.

    WWS.
    Ampharos.
    FTFlush.
    CatMantigirl.

    Four very similar low content posters. Two attracting wagons, two going completely under the radar. Out of Flush and CGM, the CGM votes were more opportunistic and their posting style is pretty acerbic in ways that do not match the ways people are speaking of them.
    This one actually feels like a good candidate for a partner assessment. Ran gives a decently wide pool of lynch candidates, and doesn't seem to care about touching on the Amy/WWS side of things. This is when Amy was in the first lead, and that previous progression of finding Amy more wolfy seems to drop to the wayside. Hmm...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#960)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#946)
    yes i am a fluffy rabbit thank you

    ranmilia, do you have reasons for not wanting ampharos voted other than the amount of apparent enthusiasm and traction for the wagon?
    Her frustration, recent reactions, and slapfight with Soab read genuine to me. I am not completely sold on innocence - dirty tactics, if scum, rare but not unheard of - but I feel better about her now than I did a few hours ago. These are still weak reasons, but my main reason is the difference in wagon traction and feeling like she's the mis-exe the scum are aiming for. The stuff with Soab relies on heavy personal meta that I have to trust the rest of town on, but I'm seeing some agreement with that view now.
    Ok, here's the explanation for the doubt on Amy, but seems kind of weird that it needed to be prompted based on the progression before. It also feels a bit light, but maybe partner Ran would be more conscious of how dropping the Amy sus when she was actually in danger would be way too suspicious. So maybe by neglecting to explain it when responding to Mill Crab, they actually cleared their self? Plus, I get being paranoid about the way activity happened around Amy's wagon. It almost made me doubt my read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#1137)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1129)
    i probably just wanna lynch wws today.

    i feel like amy/112/ftf are all villagers right now.
    What is your reasoning for this, particularly FTF?
    Eh, it's not much, but interesting that Ran opts to ask specifically about FTF rather than Amy. That said, there wasn't much to townread FTF for on D1.


    Well, Ran could be partnered. I think the most damning thing is how they started building up a negative progression on Amy, but pretty much dropped it when Amy was actually in danger. From that point on, they tried pushing for an alternative. That said, they never really considered WWS as a serious option in comparison to Catgirl. As someone who came around to Amy being town after their interaction with Zack, it would be totally natural for them to want to vote WWS to save Amy, or even just to lynch actual scum. The fact that he POE locked himself into focusing on Catgirl and mostly ignoring WWS makes me think this wasn't a partner. The Manti wagon was almost successful, but I think that kind of effort would have followed through on to WWS. Only reason I think it wouldn't is an Amy/WWS/Ran world.

    Add all that to the early shading of Amy, and I think this is probably less likely than Manti's chances.
    I forgot that they were one of the first people to tie Para and Amy together with the nexus post. Amy/WWS/Ran is the world that makes the most sense for them to be a wolf to me. I don't think they spend all that time trying to sort rabbit before coming to town read on them D2 and then immediately go back on it at the start of today if they're paired. I guess they could be with Dels but Dels has just been independently villagery. Could see them with chemist if they were confused why chemist was getting cleared off Amy's spew reads. Though chemist voting them now makes that a thornier issue.

    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2894)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#259)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#218)
    oh man i downloaded slay the spire a bunch of months back but only played like 15-30 minutes. i should get back into it; i really love roguelites.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#219)
    oh $#@! is it time to $#@!post about slay the spire again?

    sup para
    Were these actually votes for playing spire and I $#@!ed up by trying to play mafia

    Spire is good, it holds up through many, many playthroughs
    This is the kind of non-game related discussion I expect to occur between partners in the early phase of D1.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#271)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#268)
    should mention that dels got his trophy almost entirely for town play

    in his one wolfgame in champs he got lynched like d3ish
    Hey now, first of all he was lynched d4, second of all he still got voted into a tie for 2nd in that game
    More of the same.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#318)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#314)
    I'm pretty sure Para has a history of defending LHF as town (sorry chemist).

    Unless I'm misremembering he did it for sheep in Mountainous Arson and I assume he's one of the reasons I had such a hard time lynching Cemeteries.
    Chemist isn't lhf though
    I already covered this discussion in my Amy ISO.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#374)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#371)
    I can't even articulate my issue with amy's posts, or at least I don't care to

    she just seems like a wolf

    there's some vague non-controversial posts and a bunch of fluff. It's suspiciously non-controversial, actually.
    Is controversy normally a defining factor of Amy's posts? That doesn't sound like her from the times I've played with her
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#379)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#209)
    This is opportunistic.
    This is the only Amy post that really stands out to me just because her post seems more opportunistic than Chemist's does

    Everything else seems sort of rand, I don't really recall Amy not having a bland start in mountainous arson (no offense)
    When I look at the context of this post, it's when Zack and iaafr first started the sus of Amy. Zack gave his read that was based on Amy seeming non-controversial and unremarkable for the amount of "content" she had produced at the time. When asked to look at her ISO, this is the only thing that stands out to him, and it essentially results in a null read. It kind of feels like an attempt to nip the shade in the bud before it blooms too far. It could be Para doing his usual town meta of not feeling comfortable voting someone for lhf-ish reasons, but maaaan is this an easy post to make as scum. Not to mention he doesn't engage with the discussion past this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#525)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#504)
    This is charming as hell and I'm almost tempted to unvote you on that alone. Not happening, though. At least not until I've caught up.

    Have you had any scumreads yet? Who of your townreads are your strongest atm?
    Yeah I guess it's time to try this

    Townreads:

    Chemist - Just seemed to have some really pure opening stuff. I really liked that he seemed like he was trying to be solvy even when only a handful of people had shown up to the game, just seems like a town player who's using whatever he has in front of him no matter what it is

    iaafr - Has been throwing out suspects pretty freely in a way that feels very similar to the way I expect him to try to figure out games, and in a way that I think is kind of hard for wolves to fake

    Ranmilia - I don't really know what kind of wolf player Ran would normally be but 'no I'm actually serious about going after Dels' as early as they did would just be a super weird wolf opening imo

    Zack - Seems like he's asking good questions, active, probably just town

    Mill Crab - I had some good pings on him at one point but I forgot what they were

    Dels - Didn't have as many monkeys as I expected in his opening post but his recent analysis agrees with mine so that's a good look. His defense of me is almost word for word what I would expect to see out of town-Dels. Dels is always going to be kind of a weird dynamic for me because I know that he knows what I'm looking for

    Not currently townreads:

    112 - Didn't really like her vote/reasoning on me but I thought her response was okay? Just seemed pretty forthright in a way I wasn't expecting

    WWS - I kind of think if he was a wolf he would have done more by now but nothing AI here

    Manti
    Amy
    Psycho
    Flush
    Visor - No idea on any of these really

    Did I get everyone? Wow that's everyone
    It's kind of odd he has nothing to say about Amy considering he had ISO'd her earlier, but fair enough that it really wasn't much to read into. But it's also interesting that he has nothing to feel about me despite me coming at him and giving him good reason to have a handle on my alignment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#921)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#919)
    ...this is just a thinly veiled "amy's push is nonsense", isn't it
    Uhhhh

    I mean I don't think you're right about zack, I just don't know if you mean it or not
    I covered this discussion in Amy's ISO, but this reply wasn't in there. This is again the kind of interaction that is perfectly in range for partners to make. He's grilling Amy without actually coming to much conclusion on her, seeming to fill space and give her a chance to talk her way out of being lynched. It's similar to when a wolf partner asks a partner to claim, or what their legacy reads are.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#846)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#837)
    No, not really. "Oh, that's just Para, he does this every time, it's fine! Don't worry, I'm sure he'd say something that would ping me if he was evil!" Well... that explains why YOU aren't voting him, but that still doesn't tell me anything about Para himself since if that's his personal meta he'd surely do the same things as scum. I don't trust other people's "tone reading" abilities to be better than scum~Para's own ability to fake town tone.

    I am grudgingly accepting that people don't want to vote him today, but it is really going to suck when we go into later days and have to try to read Para's history of no early votes and no hard stances taken beyond "the strongest townies, who have been nightkilled by now, were town."

    Retyped this because earlier versions came out sounding hostile. Para is nice and cool. @Paratroopa when you get here, please vote for the person you think is most likely to be scum.

    I actually liked the tone of Para's interactions too, but I can't let a vote history of "No Cuddle, Unvote No Cuddle" pass... No one jumping on is weirding me out.
    ##Vote CatgirlMaple

    Hasn't really done anything except drop a vote on me that I don't understand, not convinced of the suspiciousness of WWS's iso yet and the Amy wagon just has the gut feel of a d1 mislynch but those would be my next two, I just think catgirl (manti) would have done more by now (though like WWS a lack of wim isn't a scumtell)

    Can't really respond to the rest of this post since it's all wifom if I do, but don't worry about sounding hostile, it's mafia and I can take it
    This entire exchange actually feels like it could have been a partner interaction here. Ran comes in to push Para after I had given up on it, takes him to task, all to reveal...that it was mostly a test to see who would vote Manti? Ran strikes me as the type to FPS a lot, so I could see him actually doing something like this. But I could also see Ran making a big scheme to distance from Para early on, and transition it into a coordinated assault on a townie. I mean, it almost worked.

    As far as Amy is concerned, Para says he thinks Amy is a mislynch, but gives himself an out to vote her or WWS. He did end up voting WWS instead, by the way.

    I could see a Amy/Ran/Para world because of this, but not willing to run with that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#941)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#937)
    the thing is she can't rely on people like me and para existing to say these things

    from her pov the most likely thing is people would just say "oh you're not posting reads, you're omgusing, die"
    cool now I don't have to make the same exact point

    I mean it's possible that it's just wolf-amy being super flustered but I feel like if she were a wolf she'd have... something else going on, someone to coordinate with and make a different push, I dunno

    instead she's relying on me making a pretty tenuous townread of her based on her getting mad at zack?
    More of Para's pretty strong defense of Amy, but not only is it piggy-backing off of top town Dels(who I think is definitely town if Para is wolf), it's also very reasonable and could be explained, because I think everyone thought Amy's response was a bit bizarre for a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1178)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1171)
    ##Vote WaywardSon

    self-pres

    guess i should start isoing the wagons or something?
    Do you think WWS is a wolf or not
    This actually kind of sounds like a town that's annoyed with Amy's repeated lack of explanation. So he gets some decent points for that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1221)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1213)
    honestly manti's iso reminds me of his d1 in long phase mountainous and that's good enough for me for today, i think
    Is this a good thing?
    But this one, while probably NAI, is another that feels fully within range of partnered interaction.


    *BIG SIGH*

    I'm trying not to confbias, and there are certain posts here that really make me feel like Para was at odds with Amy. But Paratroopa is also the type who has to fight to not say what he's thinking, and I think that could translate into openly calling out his partners for what he deems as stupid, rude, or frustrating antics. There's honestly so much indirect defense here, wasting of space, casual conversation, and an overall waffling of Amy that I can't help but get the sense that this was a partner that didn't know what to do with the crappy d1 predicament they had fallen into.

    I want to look at Para's ISO as a whole and see how I feel about him coming out of it, because there have been posts that have given me town vibes(the most recent being the post about randing the gun). But from Para's side, there's actually plenty of room to be partnered with Amy. I'd definitely put him above Ran and Manti.
    I don't see a Ran/Para/Amy world working because, despite coming to that town read near EOD1, they've been trying to bury him since. Like, it's just as unlikely for me that they're partners as Ran and Manti. I think what Para has going best for him right now is that he's not really trying to open up the POE like Zack said, and he does have these posts every so often that make me pause because the tone is just so good.
    The point about Manti is really critical. That actually does sound like something wolf!Manti would have no real motivation to do. So nice insight on that.

    I pretty much concur on the rest.
  35. Day 3#3304

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed Well, there's some good that came out of it. It...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3254)
    And oh god I've made this game all about Newcomb, I am @vanity. I'm sorry everyone
    Well, there's some good that came out of it. It made me think so far we've been lynching in the easy world, and that's even more reason why we have to heavily re-evaluate if we whiff both the shot and the lynch.
  36. Day 3#3293

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    20,672

    Completed Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You...

    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon
  37. Day 3#3291

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    20,672

    Completed Remind me again, in case you aren't here. Who...

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3290)
    Ideally the shot wouldn't happen until I was able to be in the thread but I work for 3 more hours lol
    Remind me again, in case you aren't here. Who are your top shot candidates in order?
  38. Day 3#3287

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    20,672

    Completed See, this kind of post feels like a townie that...

    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#3236)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3207)
    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#3205)
    So if I get shot, am I tree stump type role or just like nothing happens to me, but the shooter dies?
    Nothing happens to you, but the shooter dies
    So again I ask is it better to resolve me by lynch or by shooting me? Because by shooting me you lose an active town person.
    See, this kind of post feels like a townie that has realized how unimpactful and slanky he's been, and is trying to find what the best way to be useful is? Not sure where he follows up, but it seems like he's ready to offer himself up for the shot if he feels that's best for town.

    It could be a chance to mislead me and make me shoot non-scum and you still lose me, but I dunno. Despite my earlier opinions, I'm now having a lot of trouble finding WaywardSon as scum here.

    It helps iaafr brought up a relevant meta point about how his town games always feel very confident and clear-cut, like his bravado in voting Amy and 112 despite having little handle on the thread. Scum WWS was constantly portraying an image of self-doubt and paranoia.
  39. Day 3#3283

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I think this is a great look for Mill Crab. ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3233)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3226)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3217)

    if we lynch the people in our PoE and they are all flipping town, i will not just blindly keep following it without taking another look at the people we are clearing.
    How many must die before you will do this? One (hundred twelve) already has. And then another who was in the consensus PoE (imo at least, perhaps you differ on this?) died at night. That does not strike you as odd, if all scum are in the PoE? Yes, kill logic is ultimate WIFOM. But does it give you no pause whatsoever?
    For me if Psycho ends up shooting a townie AND we mislynch today I start reassessing. Flush wasn't in my POE at least because his worldview was aligning with mine and he didn't seem to be sheeping the consensus town. He started the day with the rabbit/para/112 POE.

    Personally I think that the seal's been broken on the Amy wagon with Psycho randing the gun the dominoes will start to fall on that wagon. It's easier for the wolves to keep everyone alive there to maximize the paranoia, but now they basically have to get me and Zack to tinfoil each other, and that just isn't happening for me.
    I think this is a great look for Mill Crab. Shows a process of thinking that came from actual consideration for the situation. It's also my mentality at the moment. If none of the main suspects of today turn up scum by D4, then I believe everyone needs to start with a blank slate.
  40. Day 3#3281

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed I aim to shoot within the next two hours. I want...

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3279)
    Psycho can you shoot soon
    I aim to shoot within the next two hours. I want to catch up(almost there) and at least case you and Dels for partner potential with Amy. Ideally, is be able to do a proper iso of Para and Manti, but that might not happen. Because I want to make sure you guys have a decent chunk of time to discuss the fallout. Especially if I shoot wrong.
  41. Day 3#3280

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed This feels pure af. Reads like Ran is actually...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3219)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3209)
    Ranmilia, let me ask you this:

    You said yesterday that when you asked me for my opinion of Para, and if I actually definitively said I thought he was town, you would either trust me and re-evaluate, or assume I am his partner.

    If I said I thought Para was town now, would you trust it? (I'm not saying I am or am not saying that, I am just curious your answer)
    I would definitely consider it if you could give me a reason based on facts and logic, a difference between town and scum behavior, showing something like a time when Para did something that scum Para would not do, or failed to do something that scum Para would have compelling reason to do.

    I haven't heard that yet. I just keep hearing "tone" and "gut" and "well, these are things I've seen town Para do in past games."

    OR if you gave me a True Gut Read Trust Me Para Is Town... at one point I would have considered it, but you've already said that isn't how you feel so I'd need to hear what changed.

    We've been here before, the other way around. Day 1 I was looking for the read from Para. I believed it, I joined him on Maple, I felt good about it. But I was wrong, it was Ampharos, you think I was SUPER wrong and it was BOTH other wagons, and Maple turned on a reevaluation that looked way better than I thought. But Para's still here saying the same thing, and the two of you are telling me -now- I should get back on the day 1 wagon, Para is town Maple is maybe scum?

    I dunno man. I dunno.
    This feels pure af. Reads like Ran is actually angry about being burned by trusting the meta on Para. Like he actually needs more concrete evidence for his mind to even consider the world with any amount of seriousness.
  42. Day 3#3278

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    Completed You're telling me that you don't see Chemist as...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3217)
    like believe it or not i am on the opposite side of what i usually argue here. i am usually the one arguing that we need to not trust the towncore and we can't lynch in the PoE.

    but the difference here is that i trust everyone in the towncore, and the people in the PoE, i do not have reasons to clear them or think they are lhf or mislynches or etc

    if we lynch the people in our PoE and they are all flipping town, i will not just blindly keep following it without taking another look at the people we are clearing. but again, that's not where we are at today. we have good targets today. we are either in an easy world or a hard world. and i don't see a reason to assume we are in the hard world right now without even seeing if it's not the easy world.

    (I'm tagging @Newcomb in this because he'd laugh that I am making this argument)
    You're telling me that you don't see Chemist as lhf right now? I know this was a discussion on D1, and I mean absolutely no disrespect to his play on a whole. I actually think Chemist is a solid player that I love being in the same playerlist as. But if he's town, the only reason people haven't voted him is because he's TWTBAW(Too wolfy to be a wolf, for Ran). He is the easiest lynch to get away with right now and be able to write off as, "Well everyone was saying it," "He wasn't helping himself," etc. I'd also argue that WWS is lhf who is only protected by wagonomics.
  43. Day 3#3275

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    20,672

    Completed Not sure if this perspective clears WWS or if it...

    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#3201)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3103)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3098)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3028)
    ran - who was afraid of flush getting the gun in your opinion?
    My assumptions: Flush will live up to his word to shoot me, I am town, Para is scum, after I am shot and confirmed the town listens to me and kills Para.

    I die Night 3.
    i keep forgetting that the person who gets shot lives if they are town and therefore it does make sense that you'd think that even if flush shoots you, that's still bad for wolves in this scenario
    Seriously? So I won't be done if 666 shoots me? $#@!.
    Not sure if this perspective clears WWS or if it should file under "Denied derp clears".
  44. Day 3#3274

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    20,672

    Completed Also, has anyone else gone over my cases for...

    Also, has anyone else gone over my cases for potential Amy partners other than Dels? I'd like some feedback and peer review on some of it, because I feel like my conclusions based on behavior and vote analysis isn't really lining up with my partner conclusions.
  45. Day 3#3273

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    20,672

    Completed Actually, the fact he isn't thinking about me...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3199)
    @Dels what do you make of the above exchange? Para is so checked out that he appears to actually not realize that Psycho is thinking of shooting him with the gun?? Or what will logically happen immediately afterwards if he is shot and is town???
    Actually, the fact he isn't thinking about me wanting to shoot him makes me think he has no reason to be scared. A wolf would subconsciously recognize the person with the gun is considering them a top target, and consistently.
  46. Day 3#3272

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
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    20,672

    Completed My point on WWS is about the entire context of...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3197)
    Okay Psycho I have read your posts.

    re WWS:

    You noted that you felt Amy leaving her vote on WWS when she first left (352) was "unlikely" to be distancing. I think that's a big stretch. It makes total sense that as a wolf she might just place a vote on a wolf partner who is otherwise not a huge suspect, she admits it's a pressure vote, she knows she can take it off later, and it can look like distancing in the future.

    You said she was "content to leave her vote on WWS" despite him being the lead (628) but a) if he's the lead, it's a particularly bad time to unvote because if he flips mafia you look bad, and b) she DID try to move her vote later, she moved it to Zack at her first opportunity. And she justified it by hating Zack's push, which could cover from the fact that it's an unvote of WWS. And c) In the post you cited, its 4am and she literally is saying she's sleeping without reading/posting, so why would she remove the vote for no reason?

    You also said Amy would come out more "hard-lined" against WWS later if they are w/w, for the distancing cred. But what is there to be hard-lined about? It's true, WWS hadn't posted much. The most she can do is tentatively agree he's an okay wagon because he hasn't done much. It's a hard position if you're wolf with him because you can't defend him, you're scared if you unvote him it'll look partnered, and so I can see Amy as a wolf feeling she needs to find a reason to stay on but not being able to say anything compelling. And unlike WWS, she doesn't play the "alright he's obviously a wolf let's go" card

    ---

    Besides that I don't have any major comments. Lots of the stuff you mentioned are good points. Agree that Para's interactions with Amy are the best reason for him to be wolf and I thought it was a good case (hence why I couldn't defend him from it) but his posts tonight overtake that and make me think he is town. Let me know what you think when you have read them, my view is not necessarily the correct one since I am "too close to it".

    with Ran I agree that mentioning Amy as a suspect but not going there can look wolfy but it is pretty harsh to bring up at all. I think even if WWS is town, Ran wouldn't really be able to go on those wagons if a wolf because they've shown that's not how they play the game. But I could be wrong, and it's a good point.

    Manti's progression on Amy is similar in that he sort of ignores her, then shades her, votes her, but ultimately goes elsewhere.

    I think these are all good points and I would never exclude any of them from being partners with Amy, but also agree some stuff in these ISOs (mostly Ran's and Manti's) makes it weird

    Ultimately we have to make some sort of call and the options are all valid.

    Right now, after the overnight discussion and having some time to think about it, I would shoot WWS. I think his posts to Amy were weak, his confidence was out of nowhere with no progression or nuance, his d2 PoV was unsubstantiated and he's just... not townie. There doesn't seem to be any major meta argument for him being town either. This is what I keep coming back to and I would like to go with my gut on it because it is just what makes the most sense to me. But let me know what you think.
    My point on WWS is about the entire context of the thread when she made her vote. Why not park on Flush, who was a perfectly reasonable vote at that point? Why feed into the WWS paranoia at that point?

    For the second point, WWS had come back and generated some content, the most prominent of that being the "casing" of Amy. If you're partners doing distancing to that level, why not add to that by responding? Say you skimmed and found this relevant to respond to before going to sleep. Or better yet, say WWS' actually did "something(the thing Amy was placing the vote for) and unvote? This just makes little sense as a distance play.

    And you say he voted Zack later, but if he was looking for an excuse to get off, why didn't he stay off? Why not find a way to be convinced by the Manti wagon, or again, FTF? Why chain yourself to the WWS possibility when he wasn't the only wagon?

    Again, if they're distancing and Amy is using this a hail mary to get get some cred after looking awful, why not just hard-line it with something like, "Look at that underwhelming iso. I'll be shocked if WWS flips green.". He even had an example of a townie who had done something similar(my case on Amy was basically, "She's underwhelming and I can't look at her ISO without seeing a wolf.". If this was all for the sake of distancing, it was the flimsiest distancing ever considering how long the seeds had been planted.

    Just the simple fact that not one of them considered flipping to Manti when he was a viable wagon seems like the least likely move from a w/w world.

    -------

    I don't really have much comment on the rest because it mostly agrees with my points and expresses the same reservations I have. I will confirm that Para's play today baffles me as a wolf. Consistently tunneling on Manti and shutting out mislynch options seems bad. Like, if Para is scum, and we actually trust him about shooting Manti, what happens if Manti is cleared by my shot? Para looks awful, Manti probably continues that crusade while being buried by Mill and Ran.

    That said, Ran's post about him not considering the world where he survives the shot and how to follow-through did grab my interest a bit.
  47. Day 3#2990

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
    Replies
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    20,672

    Completed Dels actually might not be a bad shot from a...

    Dels actually might not be a bad shot from a clearing perspective. I feel the longer he remains in the game, the greater the tinfoil grows.
  48. Day 3#2984

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
    Replies
    4,965
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    20,672

    Completed Alright, caught up with the thread. Based on...

    Alright, caught up with the thread.

    Based on what I've read and what I've been able to look back on, I think my POE, in order of priority, is this:

    Para/Manti
    Ran
    Dels
    iaafr
    Chemist

    A lot of this is based on the simple fact that despite all the evidence put forward, I'm having a hard time coming around to Chemist as scum. His style has been so aloof, yet cavalier. He has consistently not had any consensus targets the last couple phases, had a bad wolf EOD1, has had most of the world ready to hang him today and ultimately just sounds genuinely annoyed with his position in a way that comes from a low WIM town.

    I've been tinfoiling Dels pretty hard overnight and during this phase, and I keep seeing posts that skeev me out. The fact he's been off-wagon both times and fits the profile of an afk wolf that couldn't save Amy doesn't help matters.

    iaafr's towniness has dwindled since D1, and I feel he's tried too hard to force partner worldviews. It was 112/Ran last phase. This phase it was Para/Chem. This is the tinfoiliest of tinfoils and I don't really feel good about it, especially with his Amy interaction.b but I keep getting this feeling in the back of my mind he's duping us and exaggerating his paranoia.

    This is subject to change because I still want to do Chem and Dels ISOs for Amy mentions, and comprehensive ISOs of Chem, Manti and Para, but this is roughly where my headspace is at.

    Regardless, even if we Lynch Chem later, I don't think he's a good shot.

    Now I need sleep. I've probably already stayed up longer than I should.
  49. Day 3#2952

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
    Replies
    4,965
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    20,672

    Completed I feel I should clarify that Manti hammering...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#2852)
    what ranmilia said. sorry if you are town para and i have accidentally fallen into distrusting you when i shouldn't. i do agree with you that manti's hammer was anti-town and he's getting too much of a pass for it "because he's manti" and the case for chemist town makes sense i've just come to feel like it's not strong enough when there aren't other options that make more sense. (and you seem to agree since you don't think it's wws, and you don't think it's yourself obviously, but i'm really not sure i could see it being iaafr or ranmilia or a towncore before chemist)

    and now i will also go do a thing with ranmilia and not really sure i'll be able to contribute much more tonight afterwards since i'm already tired.

    but hopefully i'll still have some energy to come back and weigh in especially if the shot is tonight. psycho or anyone else, tag me if you ever have any questions.
    I feel I should clarify that Manti hammering isn't a pass for me. It's just that I think Manti would make that move as town or scum, so it's more NAI than the opposite.
  50. Day 3#2951

    Thread: Mountainous Desperado

    by Psycho666Soldier
    Replies
    4,965
    Views
    20,672

    Completed I just want to say right now, almost caught up,...

    I just want to say right now, almost caught up, my head is at Para or Manti is scum. And I think my shots ends up between the two. I don't think they're w/w, so if I shoot and they flip scum, the other is almost certainly clear.
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