supa I would read and if it helps you decompress I say go for it
Type: Posts; User: jumpluff
supa I would read and if it helps you decompress I say go for it
thank you and grats on the win!
the discord link is in the graveyard link, which is in the modbot post at game's end
will we get to know some about NKs?
ME AND PSYCHO*
dude this game $%#!ed with my head i literalyl think of psycho and ria interchangeably now WHY
and smogmafia and serenesmafia are kinda like sister or cousin communities even tho i never played on serenes so i didn't rly consider it to be extra-community tbh
@supa2 I have the same philosophy as you of wanting to win as a team, of wanting to trust my towncore and being less interested in winning games where I would have had to solo hero it, but still beating myself up when I'm wrong and make mistakes
I literally bookmarked a post you made to me and ria about the first part
this was a rough game for town to have any cohesion but we still did well from the position we were in. there was no real towncore except you and amy in huge part due to the inactivity and NKs, but we were able to trust you when we subbed in and that was so crucial for catching up. with more time and slightly lower stakes maybe we get there
and I would play with you again
rip I haven't even drunk my morning tea lol
I think we would've lost today anyways because I was getting talked into going Chelsea first and was convinced it was a good idea independently. sorry Chelsea (and Psycho for even doubting you but that's a respect thing more than anything)
Paperblade you played an incredibly good game when you were active, incredibly formidable to even think about your slot like that. Logic did a pretty good job of unsuspiciously inheriting your slot, but I have to assume Mak helped there too to give credit. Your recovery from D1/2 was amazing Mak and your post to me was incredibly pure tonally
was a real pleasure to play with everyone after I subbed in though so I don't regret it at all. a big reason for me to sub in other than caring about serenes and a lot of the dead players was to get to play with some of the people itg. just sad I couldn't win with Psycho because I've, from watching prev games, had a feeling we're similar players who think similarly and to get there together would've been pretty great
I'm really sorry about letting you die woopons, I have trouble telling my self-doubt apart from real doubt
Technically speaking you should have been for all three wagons yesterday iirc unless you abandoned your Chelsea / woopons solve which is awkward and iirc something I complained about wrt you. Did you not wonder how I (and Logic I suppose) would vote?
My internet is in and out due to storms rn so I’m on my phone
Ty for the script I’ve been spoiled by MU
There’s not a whole lot I can add from here; the things you’ve said are the major points against Psycho here. Either way Chelsea is a cornered wolf who has to hope her partner can win f3 is my interpretation. F5 play has been noted.
I can’t work with v!Chelsea as a possibility realistically any more. I did consider that she might not want voting to begin until she can argue convincingly as a villager intending to vote ria and fearing hasty votes but it feels severely out of character and she just isn’t a villager as far as I can see
If we can enforce a voting order that might be good but I sense we’ll struggle to implement it with peoples schedules and disagreements
Would want something like
Chelsea > you / Psycho > Logic / me (Logic is busy and I’m not sure how free during the day he is; I would be on late only)
/ can be >
Is ISOing possible on Serenes? I can't find a way to search by author in a specific topic, and I didn't realise how long the game was because, uh, I didn't realise Serenes was active like that at one point tbh
God I don't want to have to decide f3 and I'm struggling to imagine us getting there but not being taken along for the ride
I think if I dismissed Chelsea/Mak, since the majority of my solve has focused on them being partnered based on PoE and Mak/ria associatives, my primary concerns with Mak would look like
- yeet uninvestment, which is apparently a playstyle feature; would still maintain some concern over yesterday, I think. This is the strongest thing and it tends to be a very consistent wolf tell but I'm for now assuming I will see that it is part of Mak's town game
- not being convinced Mak gave v!Psycho a fair chance yesterday, although it's true Mak asked me for input on the wagonomics thing etc.; reasoning like the Sully/jump confusion isn't super convincing for me and I struggled to interact with it so this is maybe my own problem
- fjp read and behaviour from fjp and maybe Athena? Would like others to take a look at fjp and Athena
- pushing Shinori in an unproductive way, deathtunnels are sadly not exclusive to wolves and Shinori was the inflammatory one who stated an intent to policy vote for the rest of the game. I've been hesitant to reread it critically given how unpleasant the whole thing was
At the very least it's not more alarming than my issues with Chelsea, which mostly come down to an antitown attitude that isn't warranted, being excessively cagey for no real reason, and not acting enough on her reads (e.g. finding ria's partner, towncasing YOLO, etc.) and a bit of gamestate
Psycho is playing an incredibly strong and passionate game if he's wolf (I would expect him to try his best and he is skilled but still) though. I don't mean that lightly, my reasons to village read Psycho are a lot to overcome
I just also remember village reading Makaze and why that was
Our playstyles are obviously diametrically opposed; even if you're a wolf, you'd probably be trying to emulate your villager meta to some extent in this game or at least elements of how you think
Your stated life philosophy is about self-belief and adapting if necessary and mine is almost the opposite to an unhealthy degree lol
mfw reading the playerlist of that game and seeing the majority of the game was replaced out or something, sometimes multiple times
I appreciate this explanation
So I appreciate you linking a game because I'll take the tools I can get this game to make up for my lack of having been part of it since the finish
I will read both your Serenes game and your EoD, it doesn't seem that there's urgency to do it immediately given the time where you are but I'll get it done.
I agree with this. I kept worrying I had not done a good enough job considering PB/Logic, given their inactivity, but when I reread, I realised just how sparkling clean PB was. There is an abstract world but in reality he is not wolfy in the slightest
I'm afraid we've lost to that world, but I will do my best to not lose to it; I don't think anyone here paid any attention to Anni but I lost Anni to coordinated hard bussing from the get-go and was manipulated by the wolves whenever I pushed into it (they had a role that mechanically rewarded bussing); I've left the Chelsea/ria arguments to other people because it's there as a possibility and it would be the exact same deal minus the gladiator role, but it would feel like a throw to pursue that world if I can't find you as town.
It may be best to go Chelsea first and then do f3, I don't know. I found this post sincere tbh even though you would have to approach me like this either way, at the very least a lot of it is true, so it's hard for me to perceive it as sinister. I will be openminded towards your arguments about that team too and do the readings you asked
Sorry about the length of that, I didn't want to put it under spoilers, D2 is pretty important I think as it's the most significant challenge to my beliefs. Even if people don't read it, I want people to take D2 into account. D1 was just bigger and had more plot twists to cover. Reading your post now Mak
Rejoice, thats like nearly all my bookmarks and then I can stop again for a while and then look afresh. This is just everything I did last night. D1 was a lot more interesting than D2/D3, but D2 makes me doubt myself a lot about w!Makaze.
Something very important to me is that other people look at how Makaze treated Chelsea on D2, including Chelsea herself.
1316 is Makaze's first post on D2
Things that stick out -
- Makaze is very unwilling to give ria credit for her vote on Athena. This admittedly makes sense, ria was fairly indifferent to it and from Makaze's PoV, Ria's vote was a lot less necessary to push Athena over.
- Makaze's read on ria pretty much boils down to 'ria is hedgey' (which admittedly was part of supa's issue with her too, her pattern of switching between disengagement and heated self-defence), ria never fully reading Athena (fair enough, I'm pretty sure ria just skimmed Athena at Amy's urging), and:
- Weird handling of how ria handled FJP/Athena.
Makaze actually bolded this and tried to criticise it, which... I'm pretty sure if I were a wolf with both FJP and Athena and FJP unflipped, I would not try to draw attention to that line to avoid looking awkward, like my instincts scream against the thought of it, so that's a thing.
But the criticism was pretty awkward:
This is around the point people started just giving FJP cred for Athena too, afaik. Mak's logic isn't wrong here or anything but it's like, betraying sort of fundamental distrust of ria AND FJP at the same time which feels strange in light of the Athena flashwagon and how other villagers acted. (Yes, I know Mak was arguing ria was w/w with Athena, w/v with FJP, this is tonal + 'I'm sure FJP can't be scum with her at the least')
But look what Mak says about FJP later on:
This doesn't feel like villagery messiness at all, it feels like living in the awkwardness of a world where FJP is towncore... I mean I'm just penalising Mak for being overly correct here but ???
Ria does move down their vote priority list, particularly because:
The actual read on Chelsea is predicated on Chelsea treating Amy like she could be a wolf. The rest of the case is elided and dedicated to showing Chelsea and ria aren't w/w, as far as I can parse it. This treatment is very strange to me.
I mentioned Mak towncased YOLO earlier. Well, today's wagons were YOLO vs. Chelsea and Mak gives good reasons for thinking YOLO is a villager and not wanting to go there. It almost comes off like Chelsea is the default in absence???
They then case four people consecutively as possible Athena partners and vote Chelsea.
This feels extremely forced, would they really want to vote Chelsea the most if Chelsea wasn't YOLO's counter? There's no real explanation of why Chelsea isn't scum, it's just treated as assumed and therefore ria moves down the suspect list. This is so strange regardless of the alignments of the people involved.
It's worth noting also that Mak's vote on Chelsea here makes it 7-5, it's neither impactless nor impactful. Most people have taken sides but there's time to go.
The thing is that at one point the Chelsea wagon overtook the YOLOSWAG wagon and Makaze barely reacted except to ask Paperblade why they voted them instead of Chelsea... which doesn't seem partnered, it just seems self-absorbed, like a villager... look at this stuff: 1460 It's like they're proposing INFOYEETING Chelsea to solve ria and YOLO @Psycho666Soldier
They spent most of the day arguing with Shinori (posts that I find extremely miserable to read through again tbh) and casing other people. I don't understand it at all except that Makaze wasn't super invested in the yeet, which was true yesterday and pinged the $%#! out of me, but it scares me that I'm very wrong about the gamestate. That's generally what D2 does for me.
1505 by Paperblade was the vote that untied Chelsea and YOLOSWAG. Flipped villagers wanted YOLO, so that was also a factor. FJP also voted YOLO after Paperblade did which is a thing. I have to say that... rereading with flips, YOLO did look wolfy (I think combination of confidence + unfortunate reads D1) so the day was just one of those, if you know what I mean
People reacted afterwards that it might be v/v and they were scared of that world since the game was losing steam too
Day 2 vote history
to whether Athena wanted a particular wagon* I'd appreciate people looking at that one because I'm not as sure about it and it's one of the major places I have doubts tbh
final athena stuff and last d1 stuff rly. pertains to whether Athena wanted
At this point the wagons were Mak/Dunnstral, and this initially threw up alarms to me that my solve was wrong; Athena still increasingly endorsed the push on Mak, although he was saying something like 'something isn't right here'
Originally Posted by Athena_57Athena knew Dunn's alignment but not role at the time and probably thought Dunnstral had a good chance of dying; this reads like 'when Dunnstral flips v, you should blame YOLO as well as Chelsea' despite the 'lean town' wolf-being-correct thing and it's also an explicit protection of Chelsea in the second paragraphOriginally Posted by Athena_57
I'm hesitant to take it as meaning much in itself tho
Athena hard defended ria all day. Not sure what to make of that. Is it just confirmation bias to say it was his pet read that wolves make up and stick to and warp their gamesolve around? Idk
Then he parked on Bartozio...Originally Posted by Athena_57
What's really bugging me about this is he could've pushed Dunnstral to defend w!Mak, since Mak's self-pres would only tie it.. the thing is he tried tho which is like the worst of both worlds. In a sense he didn't defend Makaze outright, which would've been awkward, and you could just argue he wanted to keep his options open anyways...
Marth declined to do so and Athena never came back so who knows
What Chelsea said isn't what happened, is the problem
fjp's wagon reached its zenith 361 (press votecount). The wagons were Makaze and fjp/ria tied. No real Athena danger. A little while later, Amy started the Athena wagon and fjp hopped on in 452. Both wagons took forever to get going.
The jailkeeper wasn't actually in danger when fjp started the wagon, and Chelsea said the likeliest bussers were woopons and ria, who didn't come until well after the wagon was made - which really makes the bus play thing a weird claim to be so confident about, since from Chelsea's PoV/reads, the Amy/Mak/YOLO trio was pure, and they were a significant source of traction.
This is also the big question with Makaze... Makaze is still the reason the Athena wagon got traction, after all...
So Dunnstral doc claimed. The wagon on him was ALL flipped villagers except Chelsea and Makaze. (I didn't really understand it either tbh) The only other wagon with traction was Makaze (7-4) although it was fairly dead
975 is the post that prompted the revival of the Athena wagon, Amy responded with wanting Athena and Makaze immediately voted Athena. In Makaze's favour this doesn't look entirely forced, because there was some pre-discussion and supa indicated he wanted Athena and not ria (which seemed to surprise Makaze), but this is why I've been going on about Makaze's progression, because to me it says that the strongest thing in Makaze's favour, their pivotal vote on Athena, was dictated in advance and they had no other options if they were a wolf...
Then Paperblade hopped on and then people (villagers) didn't know where they wanted to go so Amy had to keep pushing people to vote elsewhere. And it was villagers who pushed the Athena wagon up:
1060 press votecount for colours
Chelsea voted ria after this and ria voted Athena 1072. Which is why w!Chelsea would have to say ria's votes on wolves don't matter (kinda bold claim without flips actually), wolves were bussing etc. but we have the flips that say this is untrue, the posts that say that the votes were pushed onto Athena by the efforts of active villagers, Chelsea's own effort to resist the wagon, and the fact that the only other wagons could've taken off instead were Mak/ria based on thread sentiment...
Now if Makaze is a wolf, what Chelsea said is actually true! They didn't bus to save the JK, which is surely untrue regardless, but they bussed Athena, the wolf with weaker thread position, to preserve Makaze and acquire cred. Remember this team is fjp (JK but a known low-volume forum player, to the point people said his inactivity was NAI), Athena (who only posts in huge bursts when no one else is around and who got caught by Amy early on, when all the other wolves were struggling), Chelsea (their most competent wolf and, according to Amy, a busser), and Makaze, who seemingly has to vote Athena to avoid outing them both and is better positioned in thread anyways despite being in arguments.
So to me this looks like a fake thought (or misremembering that Chelsea was way too happy not to check on) that possibly has TMI.
And I won't feel bad about losing to Psycho here if that's what happens tbh
You could say 'would they be so brazen' but iirc it barely got discussed, if at all, through the game
I guess you could also say 'supa was Chelsea's top town read and wanted to kill wolves' but supa also wanted to kill ria. Also supa was just villagery unless you were Amy, I think
This was concurrent with an (as far as I can tell) unprompted set of Chelsea/Mak interactions:
Makaze's response is very flat (and insouciant) given the suspicion expressed and this calls back to Mak's big reads list and how soft their read on Chelsea feels compared to their reads on other people (discussed in another post):
Chelsea's behaviour is more consistent, she scolded Makaze before for being unable to understand what she's saying underneath the Aizen RP. But there's no suggestion of thinking Makaze is a wolf or deliberately misinterpreting her or anything (admittedly I think it'd be plausible to most v!Makaze might take her literally). This interaction is a little weird in the w/w interpretation because she neither tries to make Makaze look better nor worse, but Athena/fjp blah blah.. to me it mostly seems that she's trying to look like she did try to interact with him if you know what I mean.
Makaze's response is stilted again and lacks the general attitude they had towards other villagers. Chelsea is alleging that Makaze isn't reading, that Makaze doesn't know how to read Chelsea (the less heinous of the two) etc. and Makaze just accepts it. Tbh I think Chelsea looks a lot better than Makaze in these interactions (although I would expect her to, and it doesn't preclude them being partnered).
I don't believe this conversation ever got followed up on either.
I find this one a little weirder, obviously from Mak's end. This just seems like Chelsea being Chelsea to me, especially seeing that supa and Chelsea obviously have some kind of friendship, and given how much she kept up this act I'm surprised Mak didn't go harder on her, which is another reason I keep thinking 'partnered'.
The f3 line is also very strange. Actually the whole thing is kind of strange, because Mak's and Chelsea's reads were pretty much in agreement as far as I can see and from Chelsea saying so, so I don't know what Makaze would be worrying about here.
Stuff like this is where I got the sense that Makaze was trying to appease Shinori a bit more than solve him, since they would alternate between this and antagonising him.
I just quoted a postcount where Chelsea put the Dunnstral wagon above Makaze and there's also
744 -> 774
In this situation Mak actually obeyed their elimination priority over self-pressing when parking their vote to go afk, which suggests a number of things
- Believing their partners will save them
- Understanding what Shinori pointed out earlier (the wagon on them was effectively dying, it had already depleted a lot)
- Overly rigid behaviour attempting to appear internally consistent
- Ria and Dunn weren't actually interchangeable (this is true regardless because of the Priority)
- Villager obeying their own reads in a weird way idk
It's worth noting the Shinori conversation happened because Shinori was mad Makaze wouldn't try to start a Shinori wagon and Mak was like 'well I have scum reads on other wagons that have votes and nobody wants to vote you off what's already happened', which is awfully convenient but also reasonable.. the thing is Mak mentioned the votes on them so they implied there was a self-pres element to them being on ria... also the hierarchy stuff can be a stratagem to disguise lack of organic reads and to justify voting people in advance tbh... here's the actual stuff: 758
702 (section about Chelsea/ria, in response to Paperblade) is a little odd. I didn't notice it rereading last night and might have to come back to it later, I'm not quick at interpreting things
I'm not sure what to make of it, if it's actually villagery or not, this is an open question
As I've noted above, Mak and ria, if wolves together, could've began positioning better, interacting in-thread and miraculously finding each other villagery, etc. Instead what I perceive to have happened is Makaze wanted to talk to active villagers and get them off their back (this explanation primarily comes to mind because of how Makaze treated Shinori later on) and ria's likely just a villager.
Making note of two things for the future - Makaze towncasing YOLO and their elim priority (the votecount was the same at this point)
It's hard not to see their continued prioritisation of a ria lim as conveniently scumreading a very viable counterwagon (or else they were a villager with a genuine read, which I am decreasingly seeing as likely given their body of work). Mak's treatment of ria and Shinori was pretty different though which is a little bit of an issue, Makaze actively engaged with Shinori and even ducked into the thread out of nowhere at EoD to get jabs in at Shinori, whereas Mak barely spoke to ria. But we know Athena's alignment and I'm finding it so hard to believe Makaze composed an elim order like w/v > w > v/v instead of v/v > w > w/v. The other thing is Shinori was very actively going after Mak and forcing the engage too, whereas ria was pretty passive.
Around the time of the above vote count, Makaze at least was around and ria and Makaze had been in thread together while it was like that (or, pretty close together, which becomes more relevant imagining a team with wolfchat)
They were both contributing to each other being the major wagons, it easily could've been 3-3-2 Mak/Dunn/ria if they wanted, although it might have been too brazen to make that move, idk
But it's an indicator of unalignment for me between Mak/ria (i.e. not w/w)
Not really sure what to make of Chelsea not voting here, seems effectively NAI due to there being arguments as both sides
Just seems an awkward situation and I think trying to force the vote in the first 24 hours doesn't really benefit us that much if we're right whereas it $%#!s us over if we're wrong @PsychoSoldier666
I realise v!you would be skeeved by my obvious malleability/indecisiveness but might not want to say it, but I'll say directly that it's not really as deep an issue here for multiple reasons, including the worlds being clearer and having read. w!you would want to force the matter tho
Interrupting my post flow to discuss my biggest problem with chelsea's d2, independent of makaze
This is something YOLO pointed out D2 - according to him, Chelsea was wrong on two people that would expect her to read them well (her/Dunn), and he found this problematic. She adopted a stance of saying YOLO was town but that she couldn't do anything about it given the playerlist, and even saying town should kill them both (saying it wasn't worth towncasing him because people would dismiss it as more evidence they were partnered); there was no actual effort to defend YOLO himself, she allowed his death to happen, she made one post saying essentially that YOLO/her w/w was too obvious and spent the day discrediting Dunnstral (post-doc claim) and pressing Amy about ria.
It's so hard for me to imagine even an uninvested, busy villager taking that attitude, self-pressing but claiming she would die because of everyone viewing them as partnered, no paranoia but no real passion either. Her defences were based on her not being scum and not YOLO being town. You can compare to like... woopons recognising he was stuck in a PoE with people he village read and being ok with dying to advance the gamestate over them and his behaviour at EoD yesterday, or how YOLO himself behaved. I know Chelsea is idiosyncratic but there's a limit to how much you should allow someone to antagonise the village. If village successfully kills a wolf and then is wrong on you and your friend, why would you want to throw their progress away when you have the unique ability to correct them? It's not like it's an incompetent village that isn't worth your effort.
But it is easy for me to imagine it as a wolf continuing a disaffected persona, allowing themselves to be distracted with things that don't matter in order not to lock themselves in, letting someone who knows how they play die and feeding the predictable 'they were just v/v' narrative that did in fact ensue. It's a situation that comes up after wolf yeets often enough that I don't think it would be a particularly fancy play, just consistent with her attitude this game which is increasingly seeming to me like a defiant wolf using reverse psychology.
So, sure, she wasn't 'wrong' on YOLO, but YOLO himself recognised that she didn't behave in the way she ought if she had YOLO as the strong town she claimed and he died scumreading her for it after towncoring her D1.
One thing that's been holding me back with Chelsea is that her lowering WIM could also be construed as a villager who accepted her death days ago, especially since as she said she was sick at one point and she has other commitments, but the gamestate has changed so significantly since D2 and, as I stated, people gave her tons of chances - especially supa, who stated repeatedly he was invested in finding the villager in her, and Amy, who was afraid of the v/v possibility. woopons and Chelsea aren't the same people but that's basically what happened to woopons and, faced with death, he accepted it and tried to help the village.
The remaining counterargument is her wanting to thunderdome Psycho late yesterday - when there was no real sign Logic or I would side with her, despite what I said - but it was very late to effectively matter and I think a player who plays like this as a wolf and whose primary defence is 'I wouldn't expose myself like that as a wolf' would be more prone to gambits and risky plays, especially since this one would cover for the greatest attackable thing in her play (pretending not to care if she lives, yet sliding by). I'm still not sure about it though and it's the biggest single reason I remain open to the possibility of v!Chelsea, because it was behaviour that was consistent with the village read on woopons and it was consistent with needing her/ria resolved, it was the right time to do it (before mylo), etc.
Also, @ all: I recognise wallpost after wallpost is demoralising
I have to make them for my own benefit more than anyone else's
But if you're a villager, you don't need to engage my wallposts to prove me wrong
You just need to find the evidence for your own case and make it, and I will respond when I'm here
Logic to give me his thoughts on how Makaze and Chelsea treated each other d2 if he gets the time (could just look at iso/vote history)
Yeah that's what's psyching me out too and in light of that it's easy to see why Makaze was not suspected significantly after that day. They were put on the spot by Amy though and from what I saw had no real option that would appear internally consistent (which I think Makaze would value even more than most, and the way they post kind of doesn't set them up to be spontaneous) but to join Amy on Athena, but it was still pivotal in pushing him over. It's really possible that was this kind of game though, fjp and Athena ended up bussing each other from the get-go and Athena had time zone issues and fjp just availability issues, and Makaze got immediately run up so it would limit their ability to alienate villagers. You can also see some symmetry in Chelsea's strategy and Makaze's (the tunnels on people that never die - Makaze's was on Shinori who was MKed d4 or something)
The fjp thing looked like bussing to me and it's also worth noting that the JK had no real use any more other than not shedding light on D1, which was a lost cause. Amy had cased fjp extensively D3. IIRC Mak actually revived the case tho but it looks like a pretty good way to take control of a dying game. Chelsea was sick and not super active during those days so a Mak/Chelsea team win would require Makaze to step up and get cred. I agree that it probably would have worked and the orangeandblack kill looks like an attempt to solidify that world
It's also worth noting that while Magnificence Incarnate was probably killed as a doctor dodge and because he's a good player (and hell maybe they had a PR read on his lower effort), one of his only major suspects was Makaze, and orangeandblack replaced in and immediately started pushing Chelsea. He pushed me instead of fjp which was wrong (although understandable given how the fjp wagon took off), but my slot was 0-posting. It's hard for me to imagine who PB/ria would want to kill though, PB would have some incentive to keep supa alive and nobody else is an appealing kill, both are inactive so they probably just kill the highposting sub. I can see Mak/ria wanting to flip my wagon and I can see Mak/ria wanting to kill on the fjp wagon so I don't really know, the Marth kill matters to me though
I got the sense yesterday that Logic was kinda sheeping the gamestate via osmosis or at least respecting basic tells like effort and solviness, not sure if he ever answered me about where his consensus impression came from but he clearly developed a sense of it and if I were a busy villager I would probably do the same thing and just try to not throw until I had time.
For me it's not that I disrespect your capabilities as a player or think you wouldn't feel the need to WIM it up subbing in for w!ariadne, but it's very difficult to be in this extremely open game, see your effort double that of any other individual's, and see you as a priority suspect; it's hard to want to overturn the combined effort of Amy/supa/PB (who is probably the slot I've given the least effort but the pings from him have been almost non-existent); it's difficult to discount the fact that you made yourself so available to me and supa
This is a compelling point, although I had a bit of an issue with woopons because of this specific thing tbh; he clearly found me villagery or at least was open to it but was stuck wolfreading my slot due to PoE, which I found to be incredibly awkward treatment of my slot that I would expect from a wolf demotivated by an 0-poster coming back in this fashion. I think that's kind of just the other side of the same coin though; villagers can be boxed into mentalities, but wolves have to box themselves into mentalities
I agree with you that Makaze and Chelsea should have shown more reevaluation towards you yesterday, although you came into the game with a lot of confidence. In particular, Makaze has distanced from Chelsea pretty extensively through the game and should have been infinitely more open to the possibility of v!Psycho w!Chelsea yesterday. I wrote off a lot of what Makaze did as just Makaze things but having read the whole game now I'm sceptical that it's just a coincidence, especially that Makaze pushed woopons and not Chelsea and we now know woopons was v, etc.
I just have that thing where it's like 'but would the wolves really just LOSE?'/why should I be right rather than other people going on heh so I have to keep going with my Makaze stuff, especially the first two days
Taking a break but I'm going to go through the rest of the game and then try to gather my thoughts, doubts, etc.
It's necessary for me to write this all out and argue it with myself in order to be able to see the overall arguments more clearly
And there's the obvious: then what's the solve and how does it line up with your worldview of the game?
I'm not going to pretend for a minute that the majority of wagons haven't been demonstrably driven by town, pushed over by town, etc. but those town have also been accurate about a lot (shoutout to Amy) so I can't accept 'town are just bad' as a solution
I'm not a good spew reader and have avoided reading into these posts on the whole and I feel kind of uncomfortable bringing them up especially into a potentially confbiased situation but idk
let's look at dead wolves d1
Confidently busses Athena
see also 454. 445 gives you more context on his Makaze interactions
Votecount at the time is.. idk click on 452 and press 'votecount'
This post baffles me either way because fjp could've just pushed ria even as the JK and it's a point in favour of Mak/Psycho and FJP just trying to pocket Chelsea or something (fjp also complimented her Aizen RP... not that I don't think he could've done that in-thread as w/w or that it didn't deserve compliments it's just... a thing anyway)... Or it could be some cursed ria/Chelsea team and he wants to look right, ria not being very defensible at the time... or maybe FJP just doesn't want to push a villager today but he also wants to defend Makaze... this is why I hate reading spew
But I'm bringing it back up for others to look at too
There's a later sequence of Athena posts, I'm going to postnum them but it's probably better to just click on the first one's context and read the whole thing interspersed with content
513 515 519 522
not sure whta to make of 521. Go to the page and read them in sequence if you can
Athena defends ria and continues to waver on Makaze wagon, does the same thing he did before about liking the cases on a person but not supporting the efforts to run them up (Chelsea). His stated feelings on Makaze and Chelsea are all over the place in these posts (in 506 he calls out Makaze for being inaccurate pretty strongly which gives me some concerns), he attacks FJP for his pushes on Makaze and Athena but fjp has made no posts since the one I quoted and you can see fjp is not pushing Makaze at all, which could betray TMI about FJP's hedging. He gives himself an out to unvote FJP based on FJP's behaviour towards Chelsea. There's chainsawing and stuff, like 512 where he negates supa's legit question of Makaze based on Makaze's inexplicable townread on woopons and discredits the Makaze push because of fjp and Shinori.
I think I would just bus w!ria and protect w!Makaze personally so it's hard for me to imagine Athena deciding to push the JK and protect Makaze and a disengaged ria at the same time, but can't rule it out bc maybe ria is in wolfchat saying 'yeah yeah I'll get going eventually' and reputation stuff. The hedginess comes off like not wanting to push Makaze but wanting to distance still, at this point I think Athena is anti-spewing and he votes fjp.
I see these as strong indicators of both these players being aligned with Makaze given the concord in their play. I would like help analysing their other partner interactions.
wallpost - early d1 mak stuff
Athena was struggling to get into the game due to timezone and whatnot and was posting in periodic bursts, being on a wagon should've been desirable, I think, especially a villager. Maybe Athena doesn't use his vote much (I'm like that) so reading into this is inappropriate, not sure, just going to go through the things and analyse them. More positively, Athena doesn't present an alternative to the Makaze wagon, but he might not have had the nerve. This was discussed at some other point in the game iirc, I think D3 when Amy was rereading Athena spew and deciding fjp was actually a wolf off it
The wagons were Mak (6)/fjp (the jailkeeper) and Psycho (2)/etc. The Mak wagon was pure except 2 unflipped people, Logic/PB and Psycho, and honestly could've been entirely pure, so that's another thing to note about what Athena said about it.
Not long after, you have 355, where Makaze regained some ground by putting out a lot of content.
The first thing to notice is that Chelsea is a scumlean while ariadne and Athena are full scum, this is a progression that remains relevant throughout the game iirc. The town list is also kind of inexplicable iirc and drew comment from supa at least on the inclusion of woopons. The game at this stage was rather fragmented, you had a lot of people with opposed views of the world fighting for their chosen yeet (Amy/Dunnstral/supa/somewhat Mak) and suspecting each other, in the end Amy won but mostly because Dunnstral doc claimed. So it wasn't like there was a consensus town, but it was a weird list at the time and also didn't hold up with the Bartozio yeet and so on.
The second thing is to compare the spoilered cases between some people. The case on ria is supremely negative. The case on Athena is worded comparatively mildly, rather than outright getting bad vibes they're 'not seeing the town logic' and do see at least one redeeming attribute, not true for Ria (probably somewhat justified from their PoV but stay with me). The case on Chelsea could go either way, it feels like Makaze is holding back essentially with the verdict because Chelsea is RPing. Now look at FJP, who is the wolf in the 'not read/not content' tier.
Makaze is even aware as they compose this post that they're basically giving fairyjigglypuff a pass for being infinitely less game-related than ria because fjp is just $%#!posting whereas ria is trying to look engaged, which, okay, but they don't say that outright, instead they just say
[quote]While I don't have any reasons to read them town, I also don't have any reasons to read them mafia. They may as well not have posted.[quote]
which is just not true, FJP did post and they chose to $%#!post. This is Makaze, who thought Shinori was faking not knowing how to vote with modbot to stall for time - a suspicious person who understands that people enact performances in order to get away with not having real content. A real thing you actually see scum do, and that FJP did in this game, is $%#!post and pretend to just be meming to stall for time and to level town. So for Makaze to be so unsuspicious towards FJP, the mafia jailkeeper, doesn't seem right.
I don't think it's probable that Makaze put two wolves in their bottom tier from the get go, so that is one reason I think Mak/ria is less likely than Mak/Chelsea. One in scum and one in scumlean is much more intuitive behaviour. Regardless, for Makaze to be a wolf here, at this point they're gearing up to be getting ready to bus and I think they got locked into bussing in order to look internally consistent. I think it's possible they kept this strategy going because Chelsea got sick and seemed to lose energy at some point, fjp stopped playing, and Athena caught tons of heat d1.
Anyway, immediately after the post, Mak votes ria and not Athena. It's internally consistent, just the way it was set up to be. ria also had traction and Athena wasn't getting voted. 370
Right after, Chelsea posts:
And this is mostly how the game continued, Mak distancing from Chelsea while Chelsea townreading Makaze. Anyway, it's not just the TR here but Chelsea also endorsing Makaze's list. 389 You see a similar pattern with her having Ariadne as the scummiest and Athena as the second scummiest.
After this, Ria showed up in thread and started posting, but Mak was busy arguing with Dunnstral (which is weird however you slice it) and didn't take the opportunity to question her. In fact, he spent most of the day arguing with Shinori after that. This is a problem I have with Makaze's behaviour all game, in general they've plopped votes and then spent the day casing someone else, there's often very little effort to draw the person they're voting out or to persuade others to vote their scum. Ria and Chelsea were both on the receiving end of this behaviour at various points iirc and there's an argument to be made Makaze is just bussing here, but Mak/Ria typically look more antialigned as you go along. Plus it doesn't really square with what happened to Athena
Re. the rest of this stuff - this game isn't as active as a champs game, threadcamping is a big enabler of second guessing imo
I empathise with not wanting wolves to control the wagons but to me these are the distinct possibilities
- Chelsea votes you regardless of what we want
- We all decide collectively the best thing is to litigate you vs. Chelsea here and now
- Alternatively we decide to have you or me vs. Makaze or something
- w!Makaze comes in with a case and votes w!Chelsea to try to set up the f3 win
All of these are fine with me in their own way; although I get that village deciding the terms of the f5 is more important, if the wolves are who we think, then they have a terrain advantage regardless and are more prepared than us
Basically it's impossible to discount PB/Logic paranoia at this stage altho Logic didn't feel wolfy to me yesterday or anything
I would like to give Logic time also for that reason
Also there's a good possibility I go f3 afaict so anxiety intensifies about wanting the whole day, etc.
I started solving last night with the conviction it was probably Chelsea/Makaze and if it wasn't I'd find out
The overall is that it does look like them but there's some things holding me back about thinking w!Makaze - the w!Makaze world is one where Mak is essentially very willing to bus all their partners, either because they locked themselves into doing so or because their partners are lower WIM than them and more disposable - Mak was pretty instrumental in getting Athena and fjp killed.
If Chelsea is a villager I don't really know what to do with that. I guess my statement to Chelsea would be, there's no, in a game sense, 'watching people scramble' any more, if people are wrong on you there's a very strong potential to losing to that here and all the blame in the world doesn't change that, all the insistence villagers ought to find you doesn't change that and is misplaced because of the mess that this game became. In fact, people deviated from yeeting you repeatedly, even though you asked to thunderdome, because they still believed in you somewhat, so you could argue that the village discharged its duty to you, especially supa. And we're in mylo with two wolves alive left so you need to take stances on a living player that isn't Ria/Psycho. You've used the defence that you wouldn't play this badly as scum several times, but your game looks like a good scum game more than anything, continually evading death while more trusted villagers and lower WIM wolves die. Also sometimes you just don't get anything to work with as a wolf.
I can't see ria as a wolf with anyone except Paperblade (Logic), which is still a viable team but a lot scarier and I didn't devote as much time to the possibility because the Makaze doubts had to form. Mak/ria seems improbable to me based on the very things that make Mak/Chelsea seem aligned to me (voting behaviour mostly) but I am interested in hearing any input on this.
Ok well I dunno what else to do other than talk about stuff
I reread the whole game overnight except the back half of D4 and all of yesterday, which I would like to do because yesterday was a lot more active, but I still feel unsure about my solve and it's going to take a while to retrieve the things I want to talk about from bookmarks
I will start with EoD yesterday - if people could talk about their intentions at EoD yesterday that would be helpful, I am going to outline mine with no real commentary just because I found EoD kind of telling and I want others to share theirs
- I wanted to hold my vote back because I wanted to be able to react to people's voting movements rather than have potentially underdeveloped reads taken advantage of
- I was fine with woopons dying and thought he was probably a wolf (sorry woopons), but was struggling to weigh my natural tendency to get cold feet at EoDs vs. doubt I was getting by his self-sacrificial/trying to just solve before death behaviour at EoD. I really didn't want to lose to the 'I accept my death' scum ploy if that was what was actually happening
- I was also willing to vote Chelsea instead of woopons, but didn't want to state this too openly because it would be contingent on how the wagon formed and my read on Chelsea was a lot less developed. These were the only two votes I was open to
- I got the Chelsea wagon but she essentially initiated it herself, which psyched me out a bit for reasons I stated at the time (it would be a risky play, even though I understand her to have a reputation for boldness)
- It tied 2-2-2 Chelsea/Psycho/woopons with Logic undeclared. Logic I had as a town slot. woopons was voting Chelsea though
- I didn't realise Mak was still around until they came back with a long post about Psycho etc. and I wanted to vote after Makaze because I was sketched
- Mak, Psycho, and Logic voted woopons almost simultaneously at T-1, rendering any other votes irrelevant. I did not expect this from Mak and Psycho
- Lol me
sb updated his post with this
either way please don't rush to vote
Mak, are you staying on Psycho?