my first thought is "oh $%#! this is going to be confusing" so probably like refer to me as rnp and song as song or whatev
also feel like joke votes aint too far out there but also it's mu and i've only really played tcodfia
my first thought is "oh $%#! this is going to be confusing" so probably like refer to me as rnp and song as song or whatev
also feel like joke votes aint too far out there but also it's mu and i've only really played tcodfia
TCoDf Invitational Day 1 Votecount
Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase) 1 qva bbt (14) 8 Not voting antialiasis (5), Redneckphoenix (2), Phoenixsong (2), DarkAura (0), Music Dragon (1), Keldeo (9), qva (3), Panini (8)
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Day 1 ends at 4:00 PM EDT on Monday, April 15th, 2019. There are 1555358460000 remaining.
Posted at 2 days, 5 hours, 32 minutes, 59 seconds remaining.
I wasn't really trying to shade, though given how both you and Butterfree described it I suppose it came off that way. Background on the good news guys meme: I start basically every game of popcorn by saying "good news guys, I'm a villager" (to the point where half the players started doing it top (and sometimes we insta-shoot people for saying "good news guys")). When Keldeo made P#9 I figured he was just disappointed he didn't get to snapvote me for saying it, so I obliged him, but then he didn't vote. That made me wonder if he actually thought it was worth noting that I'd entered the thread in a different way, so I asked him about it.I was waiting to see what you would do next before commenting on it. It did kind of ping me that you were trying to bust out the shade before most of the game had checked in, especially because you seemed to back off really fast when the response you got from Keldeo was cut and dry.
I'm still not really sure how to feel about it though. On one hand I do think latching on to something jokey when the game is barely under way demonstrates a self consciousness about establishing your scum hunting presence early but on the other hand prodding like that would also make sense if you're just in general eager to get into the game (which fits your response and you seemed pretty natural about admitting)
Is your vote on qva right now purely for the yoke or do you think that entrance is AI?
If not, do you think anyone's entrance so far has been AI?
I buy Keldeo's response in P#15; I suppose he's just not one for joke voting. I think if he'd actually had some other intention behind the original post then he'd be trying to come up with some sort of justification instead of a simple "I wanted you to say it". Actually, I think I maybe lean town on it a little. I think as a wolf Keldeo would be self-conscious about giving a response that's like, a basically nothing response, and try to come up with something more there, regardless of the original intention behind P#9. Does that make sense?
The vote on qva is a joke vote. I don't think anyone's entrances have been AI. Talking about flavour is a fairly typical tcodf thread entrance regardless of alignment.
mb I forgot to mention that you have to pass all 7 Sporcle tests to qualifybbt didn't tell me I had to be certified in Gen II pokemon, what can I say!?
I never played gold/silver
don't tell anyone but I can only really do well on the first 3
Also, for tcodf folks, here's a handy glossary of abbreviations and terminology and stuff (in case you're wondering what AI means).
Okay! I guess we can also call Kratos Kratos so hopefully we can keep you straight, haha.
I don't quite understand the phrasing of your second paragraph, you're saying you're fine with the joke votes so far (well, the one vote from Eifie onto qva)? What about what people have been posting?
(to be honest, I'm pretty much treating this as a TCoDfia, just on a different site, because it's just like any normal game we would play on TCoDf, along with Panini.)
Oh, thank god, I thought you guys were speculating as to whether anyone here was an artificial intelligence. I definitely wouldn't use machine learning to generate my mafia posts, that seems like it'd be counterproductive.
Hmm. I don't have anything to add really, it's been way too long since I played mafia for me to be able to draw any sort of meaningful conclusion about anything at this point. If anyone here is an artificial intelligence, I say we lynch them.
I appreciate the transparency, but this is pretty thin. I would like to think I'd be able to post a simple explanation like that as mafia. I also think my other content so far would be better to evaluate me. Do you have any thoughts about the other stuff I've posted, or Butterfree's reads, or people like the other players? Also, Panini posted some more after your slight townlean, has that changed your read on her?
Panini claimed Ollytron
Oh, I also have a meta-based lean on Butterfree right now, I think I'll keep mum about it for a little bit to see if her next posts buck the trend.
More seriously, glad to be playing with you again. Take your time getting back into it, and let us know when you have thoughts about things? I guess Eifie and Panini and I have been posting the most, so if anything from our posts sticks out, I'd like to hear about it even if you don't think you can draw a conclusion from it.
I did say "I maybe lean town on it a little".I appreciate the transparency, but this is pretty thin. I would like to think I'd be able to post a simple explanation like that as mafia. I also think my other content so far would be better to evaluate me. Do you have any thoughts about the other stuff I've posted, or Butterfree's reads, or people like the other players? Also, Panini posted some more after your slight townlean, has that changed your read on her?
I don't really have thoughts on the others at the moment, no. I don't know much about Kratos's background but the rest (RNP, qva, MD) I'd expect to have some trouble getting into the game, so their posting is null for me right now.
As for your other questions, I'll get to them a bit later. There's something I've been waiting for.
Hmm, come to think of it, I do have an idea for how we can get a read on Panini.
Panini, what does the text inside this box say?
Okay! I guess my comment was more about your lack of comment on the other content so far, but I’ll wait for the thing you’re waiting for.
hi guys! my sleep schedule is a bit wacky this weekend because, it is the weekend. but i'm awake now and will probably be awake for a while now so i will post my thoughts.
why, the good news is that i'm town, of course! you silly wahoo.
i'm willing to believe that eifie just misread keldeo's tone, and don't really have any problems with her explanation. sort of a strange interaction, but not really off color in my opinion. i wouldn't go so far as to say i'm leaning town on her, though, since none of it seems all that AI to me at all one way or the other.
i'm not really sure what to think of keldeo—i think it's kind of strange that you're leaning town on eifie as a result of what i view to be a fairly un-indicative exchange. but you're contributing a lot of good analysis, which is fairly towny. so i'm mostly ambivalent about you i guess.
admittedly my mind did jump to the possibility of a keldeo-eifie scum team, just because of the way they're sort of publicly reading one another as town, but thinking about it for more than like three seconds i don't think it's very likely... there's no way they'd be that obvious, hahaha.
i'm most inclined to lean town on panini, mainly because she's been so active in trying to discern the motivation behind people's reasoning even in ostensibly towny posts, which looks good to me. it's not a strong town read, but it is the strongest one i'm getting so far.
still neutral on butterfree. i don't have a problem with any of her posts, specifically, and can to a certain extent get behind what she's saying about eifie, but i also know butterfree plays a very good mafia, so alas i'm a bit more suspicious of you than average by default, because i'm wary that even strongly towny posts from you might not indicate your alignment at all.
finally, i am pretty sure md's anti-AI rhetoric is just overcompensation for the fact that she is herself an AI, so we should probably lynch her.
I don't really want to answer for antialiasis, Panini, and since she's played vanillaesque mafia more recently than I have she probably has a bit more practice getting early reads. But for some general context (which I know applies to me, at least) I think even the more active players in TCoDfia tend to have a little trouble getting townreads that are worth speculating on early in games. (Or, if people are getting them, they don't necessarily always share? We should make more of an effort to change that if so.) Mostly because in our meta--usually role madness and usually night start, so there's often some kind of action to go off of on D1--if nothing obviously strange happens then the large number of relatively quiet players we have just... tend not to post other than to say "I'm here". Lurking happens a lot for a fair few of our common players and isn't really AI either, so unfortunately early days tend to devolve into the more gregarious or aggressive players pushing for other people to talk and not really getting anywhere until a few nights later when more actions have happened and can be compared to whatever earlier behavior there is.
All that to say that I, at least, am rusty as all get-out at earlygame scumhunting. Doing my best to brush the rust off and look at what's happened so far, though:
-Eifie: Haven't played with her often (I think the last game that actually finished that we were both players in was... AAMafia 2? oh dear god that was forever ago? is that true oh god please tell me there's a more recent game I'm forgetting), but in brief, the joke qva vote is null to me, eagerness to discuss and explain afterwards comes off as... bitsy townlean? I know she wasn't as talkative as scum in AAM2, though possibly in part because the rest of the town being too shy to participate even when directly prompted (argh) made it reeeeally easy for her and the other remaining maf to coast. But that was Forever Ago and that may well not be relevant analysis anymore.
-antialiasis: Mostly null. She's pretty good at appearing aggressive even when she's scum (that last game you guys played was *blows kiss* I mean damn) and in general is pretty open; think I need to see another of those posts from her to really decide, but I... I thiiiink I can tell when her pushing her gut and her leads is more genuine than not? That last game confused me, man. My trust is wounded. (But yes, can probably tell more after she speaks up again, hopefully.)
-Keldeo: I don't think I've ever played with him? I think? My memory is bad and I need to catch a bus soon, blah. Don't think I've observed him in any recent games, either. Can't really get a meta read, then, but is currently coming across as fairly sincere? Again, though, I have no idea what that means with him.
-Panini: No meta, obvs, but I like the early willingness to dig in. Can't really say it gives a significant townlean if I can't for Keldeo, though.
-RNP: Is usually quiet, I think? Even during early discussion stuff. Null.
-Other people: Hello! Talk a bit more, there are things to talk about now!
okay bus gotta run
(And yes, feel free to keep calling me Kratos if that's easier. Honestly I'd meant to change my TCoD name back to Phoenixsong aaaages ago but Kratos just... stuck? So. It's fine.)
Sex ISN'T REAL you literally The internet is onto something. OBI-WAN: And why older people in one thing. Im waiting for… Normally when I still want to the wealthy elite as I decided to sympathize with good. The algorithms which govern all your parents gave you get ruined by giving myself infinite rockets in?
lol, ok, the thing I was waiting for was that I thought it'd be interesting to see how Butterfree responded to Panini without multiple people backing up that her kind of on-the-sidelines approach in P#43 seems null and just typical for her (which is how I feel about it). That's kind of happened at this point anyway, and I'm tired of holding back my thoughts on stuff, so I guess it's whatever.
I like Panini's prodding at Butterfree in P#47. I think it's a good thing to point out, even though I don't think it says anything about Butterfree at this stage. Keldeo having very similar thoughts on it in P#50 gives me a good feeling as well.
Keldeo's analysis of me in P#50 feels like pretty much what I would expect from him as either alignment, though I'm a bit confused about the bolded:
I don't know why you're giving the talking about flavour as an example here. What would make more sense as an example there would be P#14, given, well, the whole thing that happened in Meowfia (which I explicitly told you I would not have done as a wolf). Can you talk a bit more about this?
I'm so glad MD is in this game
Can you clarify a bit re: Butterfree, on how you say you "can to a certain extent get behind what she's saying about eifie"? It doesn't quite seem to line up with what you say about me in this post.hi guys! my sleep schedule is a bit wacky this weekend because, it is the weekend. but i'm awake now and will probably be awake for a while now so i will post my thoughts.
why, the good news is that i'm town, of course! you silly wahoo.
i'm willing to believe that eifie just misread keldeo's tone, and don't really have any problems with her explanation. sort of a strange interaction, but not really off color in my opinion. i wouldn't go so far as to say i'm leaning town on her, though, since none of it seems all that AI to me at all one way or the other.
i'm not really sure what to think of keldeo—i think it's kind of strange that you're leaning town on eifie as a result of what i view to be a fairly un-indicative exchange. but you're contributing a lot of good analysis, which is fairly towny. so i'm mostly ambivalent about you i guess.
admittedly my mind did jump to the possibility of a keldeo-eifie scum team, just because of the way they're sort of publicly reading one another as town, but thinking about it for more than like three seconds i don't think it's very likely... there's no way they'd be that obvious, hahaha.
i'm most inclined to lean town on panini, mainly because she's been so active in trying to discern the motivation behind people's reasoning even in ostensibly towny posts, which looks good to me. it's not a strong town read, but it is the strongest one i'm getting so far.
still neutral on butterfree. i don't have a problem with any of her posts, specifically, and can to a certain extent get behind what she's saying about eifie, but i also know butterfree plays a very good mafia, so alas i'm a bit more suspicious of you than average by default, because i'm wary that even strongly towny posts from you might not indicate your alignment at all.
finally, i am pretty sure md's anti-AI rhetoric is just overcompensation for the fact that she is herself an AI, so we should probably lynch her.
@Phoenixsong: literally what is AAMafia 2 lmao. Do you mean Clover's Ace Attorney mafia which was like 8.5 years ago?! We played together in ASB Halloween mafia ~a year ago. I was scum with Keldeo there.
i just don't think it's an overtly scummy or unreasonable take, even though i don't agree
Let me just... very quickly check if I have correctly understood how the BBCode works.
##Vote Mafia Host
kratos if you want me to be less quiet i can be much louder i just have to go dig around in my garbage pile for the shift key
TCoDf Invitational Day 1 Votecount
Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase) 1 qva bbt (22) 8 Not voting antialiasis (5), Redneckphoenix (3), Phoenixsong (3), DarkAura (0), Music Dragon (6), Keldeo (15), qva (5), Panini (8)
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Day 1 ends at 4:00 PM EDT on Monday, April 15th, 2019. There are 1555358460000 remaining.
Posted at 1 days, 23 hours, 32 minutes, 59 seconds remaining.
Okay, gotcha.
I like your effort in P#65. iirc you haven't played forum mafia in a really long time and were nervous about being able to keep up in this game, so I feel like coming in and posting a lot of thoughts like that is somewhat more likely to come from town you than wolf you?
Man, I'm having that thing where I kind of just want to townread everyone who posts some amount of thoughts and it's bothering me a bit. @Keldeo has this problem sometimes, what are you thinking right now?
Okay, does anyone else think the tone of this is not great even for RNP?
So are the threats werewolves or mafiosi? Or, god forbid, werewolf mafiosi?
Werewolf mafiosi ?
I use the words interchangeably, at least.
Aside from the ASB Halloween Mafia, we also played together in MF's Third-Party Party Mafia around a year ago, where I was the cop and you were the mafia who gave out fake guns and vests!
Werewolf mafiosi who also float atop ponds, allowing us to also call them scum
the threats to YOU are called Town, ms AI!!!
by the way, i realize it's early for this, but what are everyone's thoughts on abstaining day one? i ask because i've heard before that abstaining day one is bad. not sure what the group feeling is on what should be achieved today
You know full well that I'm a Mrs. nowadays.
(note: I'm... not actually sure what you're talking about when you say the thing in Meowfia. Do you mean spurring discussion instead of just letting town stagnate? That honestly didn't occur to me when I was reading the post.)
So, about my read on Eifie and why I think her early activity patterns are AI: She's able to generate content and find contradictions to pick at as either alignment. But when she's mafia, I feel like she exhibits this concern and nervousness about posting - worrying about not letting her teammate down, potential spew, how her posts appear. Her tone as mafia doesn't show this emotion but I think it's betrayed by things like a sort of low or disjointed frequency of posting, especially being frozen in real-time interaction, and not really joke posting as much. I'm using as reference Lovers Mafia, Second Annual Bastard Mash, Meowfia, and what I remember of a few turbos (small sample size, I know.)
I don't think these elements are present in her earlygame posts in this game. Her joke posts and talking about flavor in the start, some as real-time reactions, I don't think comes as easily if she were scum. I also mention flavor because she might just have talked about out-of-game stuff and her eagerness about flavor and stuff in mafia chat if she had mafia chat, if that makes sense, but this is weaker.
Overall, especially given that I'm ~fine with her later content and it's following a throughline that makes me think she's actually invested in solving and not just pretending in order to push mislynches, I think I townlean to townread Eifie at this point. Maybe I'm succumbing to confirmation bias because I really want this read to be right, but if she is mafia, she's playing very well to the audience by playing within how I perceive her town meta and range.
I think with the numbers in this setup, it is best to lynch every day that we start with an odd number. Just agreeing to not lynch anyone means we can’t analyze things like votes tomorrow, and there’s no guarantee that the extra night will give us any more information from the PRs.
I take a principled stance against people claiming to have significant reads when like no significant content has been posted. Which is to say that yeah, people do that, and I don't think it's alignment-indicative when they do or anything, but I think it's nonsense and am strongly opposed to any attempt to read it as somehow suspicious for people to not pretend they've got confident information at a stage when they clearly don't. Our home meta is pretty terrible at early scumhunting, and I can appreciate that grasping at straws and producing reads early gets the game going by provoking actual discussion and reactions, but man, I just can't make myself pretend there's actually a huge discernible difference between super-early posts made by town vs mafia.This is really middling, which I would kind of expect at this point in the game but maybe more so considering you talked a little bit about me and bbt specifically, even though you didn't end up leaning one way or the other? It also bothers me less that you're reading most people neutral and more that your instinct wasn't really to follow up with anything in particular to help sort out that situation. What kind of information do you usually wait for before making your reads?
(Granted, my opinion there isn't super-scientific. I would actually be very interested in actual statistics on the accuracy of early D1 mafia reads, but I haven't seen any and am basing this on my gut. But I strongly expect early reads are no better than chance, and quite possibly worse.)
All in all, I meant what I said: Eifie jumping on that joke in that way felt weirdly tryhard, but that's what this awkward transition from nothing content to actual gameplay is always going to look like, and I don't really think it indicates alignment. Eifie always wants to try to get the discussion going; she'd do that sort of thing either way. There is no information there that I find worth an actual lean one way or the other. (Of course, turns out it wasn't entirely as weirdly tryhard as I thought anyway, since it had to do with some kind of in-joke I'm not in on. That makes sense.) Your post was also one I did not really find alignment-indicative. (I brought it up in particular because Eifie said she was leaning town on you for it; I was disagreeing with that.)
What I look for to make actual reads is usually to do with people's reasoning and whether it seems honest and genuinely motivated, but super-early in the game it's very hard to say because all the reasoning is going to be kind of flimsy and based on very little, regardless of alignment. Overall I'm unlikely to have very strong reads until some way into the game, although now that there's a bit more actual content to work with I'm going to go ISO the players and see if anything jumps out. We don't have ISOing on our home board but let me tell you, after Championships last year I am a fan.
Disagree; I think this just looks like a joke post, plain and simple. I guess you're reading it as being annoyed somehow? I can sort of see how you could read it that way, but I really don't think that's how it's intended.
yes i was referring to how i refuse to type capital letters and also have piles of miscellaneous what-have-you laying arnd sorry if that was misconstruedDisagree; I think this just looks like a joke post, plain and simple. I guess you're reading it as being annoyed somehow? I can sort of see how you could read it that way, but I really don't think that's how it's intended.
How confident would you say you are in this read? Like, as a percentage or something.(note: I'm... not actually sure what you're talking about when you say the thing in Meowfia. Do you mean spurring discussion instead of just letting town stagnate? That honestly didn't occur to me when I was reading the post.)
So, about my read on Eifie and why I think her early activity patterns are AI: She's able to generate content and find contradictions to pick at as either alignment. But when she's mafia, I feel like she exhibits this concern and nervousness about posting - worrying about not letting her teammate down, potential spew, how her posts appear. Her tone as mafia doesn't show this emotion but I think it's betrayed by things like a sort of low or disjointed frequency of posting, especially being frozen in real-time interaction, and not really joke posting as much. I'm using as reference Lovers Mafia, Second Annual Bastard Mash, Meowfia, and what I remember of a few turbos (small sample size, I know.)
I don't think these elements are present in her earlygame posts in this game. Her joke posts and talking about flavor in the start, some as real-time reactions, I don't think comes as easily if she were scum. I also mention flavor because she might just have talked about out-of-game stuff and her eagerness about flavor and stuff in mafia chat if she had mafia chat, if that makes sense, but this is weaker.
Overall, especially given that I'm ~fine with her later content and it's following a throughline that makes me think she's actually invested in solving and not just pretending in order to push mislynches, I think I townlean to townread Eifie at this point. Maybe I'm succumbing to confirmation bias because I really want this read to be right, but if she is mafia, she's playing very well to the audience by playing within how I perceive her town meta and range.
I just kind of got a gut feeling about it that I have a hard time explaining, tbh. Given everyone else's responses I think I'm just being overly jumpy since last game I made the mistake of giving you a pass because "RNP always acts scummy tho" and then you were actually scum and giving you that pass D1 cost us the game.yes i was referring to how i refuse to type capital letters and also have piles of miscellaneous what-have-you laying arnd sorry if that was misconstruedDisagree; I think this just looks like a joke post, plain and simple. I guess you're reading it as being annoyed somehow? I can sort of see how you could read it that way, but I really don't think that's how it's intended.
Yup, it did! IMO was in July, TCOD Solution was in April.Oh, I stand corrected!My first game of mafia was IRL at IMO, actually! The forum came afterwards because I was very enthused about this game and about to never meet most of these people again.
The Icelandic, Norwegian and Swedish teams met in the hallway of the hotel in the middle of the night to play. My very first game was an immediate D1 alien victory by the guy on the Norweigan team that I found super-cute. It was a truly special experiencethat I have ever since been trying in vain to recreate with these sad facsimiles
Then TCOD® definitely came before your first ever mafia game, right?!
hm. i'm going to have to say i don't really like the sound of this honestly. i'm inclined to agree with you that early-game reads are fairly baseless and shouldn't be taken extremely seriously, but i don't really think taking a principled stance against them and attempting to shut down even ostensibly arbitrary reads this early in the game is a very good pro-town strategy. i think it's implicit that no reads at this point are super serious, and that most of the probing being done is done, just as you say, to initiate conversation. critically, i don't think anyone has claimed a "significant read" yet as you say. what's the pushback?
regardless of how founded suspicion is at this stage in the game, the only way we can move forward and form better-founded leads is by amassing information. the value in these seemingly baseless reads is that they allow us to push people to speak even when there's basically nothing else to go on. so, while again i do understand your frustration at seemingly groundless reads, there is nothing else at this point, and i don't see how trying to obstruct the flow of information by publicly expressing that any reads made at this point are arbitrary and useless (even if they have little practical basis) could really be helpful to town. the worst that can come of these claims being pressed, exhaustively supported or not, is that people are forced to defend themselves, thus presenting more information, right? at this point i strongly doubt anyone is going to bandwagon and erroneously lynch someone over a day one slant read. that said i don't see the advantage in explicitly disregarding any reads being pushed as premature and meaningless.
not that i think you're being irrational. i see where you're coming from and am not feeling strongly enough to point a finger. but to be perfectly clear i'm feeling more inclined to read your insistence that any read this early is frivolous and shouldn't be considered (especially in response to having your own motivations put under the looking glass) as wolfy than i am to read it as towny.
some other thoughts i'm having at the moment, not related to butterfree: i'd really like to hear what darkaura has to say, and am slightly tempted to push a vote for her just to put the pressure on, but am at this point willing to give her the benefit of the doubt and just wait until tomorrow (irl) to see if she pops up belatedly. still, her absence so far has definitely got me considering her as the best lynch candidate at the moment, until something else changes.
I think it's best to go about this day like we intend to find someone to lynch, and if in the end we don't then maybe it's fine and we should just abstain. Not sure, though. We no lynched D1 in Meowfia and that was a big mistake. At least in this setup we have a little bit more breathing room because it's 9p instead of 7p and still 2 mafia.
Uhh... I don’t know how to assign percentages to a read. I think you are most likely greater than random chance (7/9) to be town, so... 80%? 85%? It is harder for me to see a mafia Eifie being as engaged and the type of engaged that you have been.
yyyyeah i'd also be jumpy considering 1) that game just happened and 2) reading back on it it kinda did sound a bit rudeI just kind of got a gut feeling about it that I have a hard time explaining, tbh. Given everyone else's responses I think I'm just being overly jumpy since last game I made the mistake of giving you a pass because "RNP always acts scummy tho" and then you were actually scum and giving you that pass D1 cost us the game.yes i was referring to how i refuse to type capital letters and also have piles of miscellaneous what-have-you laying arnd sorry if that was misconstruedDisagree; I think this just looks like a joke post, plain and simple. I guess you're reading it as being annoyed somehow? I can sort of see how you could read it that way, but I really don't think that's how it's intended.
but i do think the "good news guys" thing and pointing it out, especially with how tcodfia d1's go, isn't really very ai
(ftr that post was also a lil joke based on that f1 key gag from homestuck bc it's 413)
damn, skylar is clearly putting a lot of effort into her posts and I like it a lot.
Okay, maybe asking for a percentage was kinda dumb. I'm mostly wondering being it feels like you are more confident than I expect you to be, having just followed the April Fool's mash.Uhh... I don’t know how to assign percentages to a read. I think you are most likely greater than random chance (7/9) to be town, so... 80%? 85%? It is harder for me to see a mafia Eifie being as engaged and the type of engaged that you have been.
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Originally Posted by Panini
