Where are you at on Manti, Chem? Link if you've already talked about it is fine.
I agree Ran and Manti aren't a likely pair.
While I have a moment:
(And forgive me everyone if this isn't relevant - you don't need to read it)
Do you know the story of Mountainous Arson?
(It's not a tale the wolves would tell you)
This is the Marson that keeps being referred to - the previous mountainous with a twist game that GH hosted
Para and I (and Amy) were in it.
It had an easy wolf team.
The wolf team had:
- one low-poster who was busy IRL and when she showed up she'd be like "uhhhhh its really hard for me to have thoughts this game for some reason, not sure why... uhhhh i guess i think... uhhh...". Para and I gave her the benefit of the doubt, assumed she'd do more if she was a wolf, and defended her.
- one other semi-low-activity person who didn't particularly do much, take any hard stances, wasn't around often, but seemed vaguely towny sometimes because of decent tone. Para and I called them town and were like "nah its not them"
- one player who was young, less experienced, but was very active and was the first person in the game to break out of page 1 RVS and make a real push. she had good tone and energy and we just assumed she was town and defended her for days because her first impression was good. but we sort of started considering it around day 3 when she had trouble keeping up with the game and her output was getting weirder. (and this is where the "is chemist cemetaries" post day 1 comes from)
Para and I defended all 3 of the wolves. We had one in our PoE for a bit, but not really.
Para fell under suspicion because he wasn't giving reads, admitted he didn't do who the wolves were, voted people "just because they're not as townie as the rest? i don't have a reason beyond that" etc. I defended Para. Some of the high activity town core people insisted that Para was a wolf and that I was wrong to defend him just because "he's acting the same as usual, this is his town game, i don't see anything wrong". It became a big thing. These people refused to accept my townread of Para. Myself and one other person (this is Ara for those reading along) defended Para. The towncore said that I could be a wolf with Para and Ara then. Para and I said it must be the hard world then and those towncore people were trying to keep us available as mislynches because they refused to accept that the three of us townread each other.
We mislynched for three days like chickens with our heads cut off, and then on the fourth day, Newcomb (the person I tagged earlier) subbed in and said "guys, it's not the hard world. stop assuming it's the hard world. it's the easy world. these are the three wolves" and by that point we agreed, and the wolves forfeited before we could finish chain lynching all three of them in a row.
The most recent mafia game I played, Newcomb was in, and we wagoned two wolves day 1 and lynched the wolves days 1, 2, and 3.
I have fought for the hard world before. I have been resisted just like I am resisting you now.
It is not always the hard world.
(And in that game, the reasons I defended Para were the same as here. I had no concrete evidence, I just said everything he was doing matched his town game and I had no reason to think he was a wolf)
I am not saying it's never the hard world though!
I am saying it can be the easy world or the hard world, but it's game by game, in context. We just need to figure out the people we think are town and who we think are wolves. And in this game I think the wolves are in the PoE. But I'm never listened to when I say it's the hard world, even when I'm right (and I am right sometimes - the last game I played on gamefaqs, i subbed in and called the two highest posters, the two universally towncore people wolves - and they were). So maybe you are right and it is the hard world and I'm wrong this time. That's fine. I'm just trying to explain where I am coming from and that I think both of our PoVs are valid.
Out again now.
Plinko :clap: boards :clap: and :clap: waterfalls :clap:
chem says manti is village, via his read on ran being a wolf and them not being together
not "village read on ran"
Chem, it looks like you were trying to scum read me but were struggling to come up with anything super solid. Do you think I'm a wolf? You dropped that thread coming back today, but I'd like to hear your conclusion on me and why.
If anyone's around and wants to chat while I catch up, I wouldn't mind the company.
Question for @iaafr
I keep finding things that I liked about people in my POE, so I feel like I'm not getting anywhere.
If Ran is a wolf and was trying to draw heat off Amy D1, who's the last wolf?
Ran/Manti - Unlikely because that's who they tried to run up
Ran/Chemist - Impossible from you POV but off the top of my head I don't think there's anything that makes this impossible?
Ran/Dels - Early push on Dels that most people discounted though it looks like they're butting heads right now. Possible I think but then they both sat off wagon with Dels afk and didn't bother trying to save Amy.
Ran/iaafr - rabbit pushes them yesterday and Ran comes in pushing rabbit but neither has followed through with it that I've seen. Ran backed off today after seeing that rabbit is currently pushing a para/chem world. Possible but that means Amy shut down rabbit's attempts to interact with her multiple times
Ran/Mill Crab - impossible from my POV
Ran/Para - Unlikely because they've been pushing for his lynch for two days now
Ran/Zack - Possible but it requires Zack to be a wolf which is pretty lol
Ran/WWS - Would be a very possible pairing with how they tried pushing Manti up as the third cw.
For the second point, WWS had come back and generated some content, the most prominent of that being the "casing" of Amy. If you're partners doing distancing to that level, why not add to that by responding? Say you skimmed and found this relevant to respond to before going to sleep. Or better yet, say WWS' actually did "something(the thing Amy was placing the vote for) and unvote? This just makes little sense as a distance play.
And you say he voted Zack later, but if he was looking for an excuse to get off, why didn't he stay off? Why not find a way to be convinced by the Manti wagon, or again, FTF? Why chain yourself to the WWS possibility when he wasn't the only wagon?
Again, if they're distancing and Amy is using this a hail mary to get get some cred after looking awful, why not just hard-line it with something like, "Look at that underwhelming iso. I'll be shocked if WWS flips green.". He even had an example of a townie who had done something similar(my case on Amy was basically, "She's underwhelming and I can't look at her ISO without seeing a wolf.". If this was all for the sake of distancing, it was the flimsiest distancing ever considering how long the seeds had been planted.
Just the simple fact that not one of them considered flipping to Manti when he was a viable wagon seems like the least likely move from a w/w world.
I don't really have much comment on the rest because it mostly agrees with my points and expresses the same reservations I have. I will confirm that Para's play today baffles me as a wolf. Consistently tunneling on Manti and shutting out mislynch options seems bad. Like, if Para is scum, and we actually trust him about shooting Manti, what happens if Manti is cleared by my shot? Para looks awful, Manti probably continues that crusade while being buried by Mill and Ran.
That said, Ran's post about him not considering the world where he survives the shot and how to follow-through did grab my interest a bit.
Also, has anyone else gone over my cases for potential Amy partners other than Dels? I'd like some feedback and peer review on some of it, because I feel like my conclusions based on behavior and vote analysis isn't really lining up with my partner conclusions.
I think Zack and iaafr are both fairly townie in their methods of trying to tinfoil me. Like, I totally understand the feeling that things aren't really lining up and looking at what that means for the people you're townreading.
$#@! I have to go read Dels don't I?
Psycho can you shoot soon
I see para has posts now, how are they
It could be a chance to mislead me and make me shoot non-scum and you still lose me, but I dunno. Despite my earlier opinions, I'm now having a lot of trouble finding WaywardSon as scum here.
It helps iaafr brought up a relevant meta point about how his town games always feel very confident and clear-cut, like his bravado in voting Amy and 112 despite having little handle on the thread. Scum WWS was constantly portraying an image of self-doubt and paranoia.
Me and flush weren't actually in danger, and a big cfd was more or less out of the cards.
Mountainous Desperado Day 3 Votecount
Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase) 2 Ranmilia iaafr (229), Chemist1422 (58) 1 Chemist1422 CatgirlMaple (109) 7 Not voting Psycho666Soldier (31), Ranmilia (53), Paratroopa (70), WaywardSon (30), Dels (157), Slimy Soab (155), Mill Crab (68)
View Vote History
End day at majority is enabled. With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to reach majority.
Day 3 ends at 9:00 PM EDT on Monday, September 16th, 2019. There are 1568682060000 remaining.
Posted at 0 days, 8 hours, 48 minutes, 59 seconds remaining.
Ideally the shot wouldn't happen until I was able to be in the thread but I work for 3 more hours lol
shooting wws worst case scenario- we finally have eod1 clarity and the wolves have to kill someone who is slanking
best case- eod1 clarity and dead wolf
Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.
it only makes sense if the team is manti/ran, but as you’ve said that world doesn’t make much sense
i think mantis posts are quire wolfy but (a) stuff doesn’t add up if he’s a wolf, (b) i am historically bad at reading him because he has such an unusual/troll style
Wws unless he seriously steps up his game I dont even think wolves kill him if he gets confirmed v. In a vaccum his slot should be v just cause basic ww mechanics but lol
Zack and crab voted a wolf and are pretty well safe for now. Doesnt smell like a bus and they're both likely to get shot before lylo anyway.
Iaafr is a slot that I dont think it's time to go after yet. He might die at night.
Shooting me gives me no info
Ran I see people are turning on. I haven't had a chance to give his slot a real good looking over yet, and if hes v thatd suck but if theres a v good case against him idk I could be wrong. I'd rather get him myself.
i’ve already covered this so much i don’t want to type it all up again because there is nuance that’s hard to get across in a few words
I think the team is wws/chemist. manti and ran are the next in my poe i guess but i don’t believe ran is wolfy at all (just flush kill looks poor) and i just explained my manti read to ?
Ftf and psycho being the two eliminated slots is kinda funny