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Thread: Mountainous Desperado

  1. ISO #3251
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3241)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3225)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3222)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2914)
    Um

    What did you mean by this? @Mill Crab
    I agreed with both takes when I was catching up and wanted to call it a mindmeld. I realized as I was typing that up that you guys have no idea how I was handling my catch up and could have read ahead and positioned myself to agree with both takes, so me agreeing with rabbit and zack there shouldn't be a reason to townread me.
    @Chemist1422
    I meant with the "town-indicative thing" part

    Were you referring to it being town-indicative for yourself or Zack/iaafr? Why is a mindmeld inherently town- indicative?
    myself. When I have the same real-time reaction as someone else, I'm going to think they're a villager because they're coming from the same mindset as me. Stuff like answering 112's question about the setup less so, but having the same record scratch reaction to a post or if there's something like an unintentional tinfoil crosspost when neither player telegraphed that it was coming I think signals similar POVs.

  2. ISO #3252
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Where are you at on Manti, Chem? Link if you've already talked about it is fine.

    I agree Ran and Manti aren't a likely pair.

  3. ISO #3253
    Season 4 Champion Dels's Avatar
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    While I have a moment:

    (And forgive me everyone if this isn't relevant - you don't need to read it)

    @Ranmilia

    Do you know the story of Mountainous Arson?

    (It's not a tale the wolves would tell you)

    This is the Marson that keeps being referred to - the previous mountainous with a twist game that GH hosted

    Para and I (and Amy) were in it.

    It had an easy wolf team.

    The wolf team had:

    - one low-poster who was busy IRL and when she showed up she'd be like "uhhhhh its really hard for me to have thoughts this game for some reason, not sure why... uhhhh i guess i think... uhhh...". Para and I gave her the benefit of the doubt, assumed she'd do more if she was a wolf, and defended her.

    - one other semi-low-activity person who didn't particularly do much, take any hard stances, wasn't around often, but seemed vaguely towny sometimes because of decent tone. Para and I called them town and were like "nah its not them"

    - one player who was young, less experienced, but was very active and was the first person in the game to break out of page 1 RVS and make a real push. she had good tone and energy and we just assumed she was town and defended her for days because her first impression was good. but we sort of started considering it around day 3 when she had trouble keeping up with the game and her output was getting weirder. (and this is where the "is chemist cemetaries" post day 1 comes from)

    Para and I defended all 3 of the wolves. We had one in our PoE for a bit, but not really.

    Para fell under suspicion because he wasn't giving reads, admitted he didn't do who the wolves were, voted people "just because they're not as townie as the rest? i don't have a reason beyond that" etc. I defended Para. Some of the high activity town core people insisted that Para was a wolf and that I was wrong to defend him just because "he's acting the same as usual, this is his town game, i don't see anything wrong". It became a big thing. These people refused to accept my townread of Para. Myself and one other person (this is Ara for those reading along) defended Para. The towncore said that I could be a wolf with Para and Ara then. Para and I said it must be the hard world then and those towncore people were trying to keep us available as mislynches because they refused to accept that the three of us townread each other.

    We mislynched for three days like chickens with our heads cut off, and then on the fourth day, Newcomb (the person I tagged earlier) subbed in and said "guys, it's not the hard world. stop assuming it's the hard world. it's the easy world. these are the three wolves" and by that point we agreed, and the wolves forfeited before we could finish chain lynching all three of them in a row.

    The most recent mafia game I played, Newcomb was in, and we wagoned two wolves day 1 and lynched the wolves days 1, 2, and 3.

    I have fought for the hard world before. I have been resisted just like I am resisting you now.

    It is not always the hard world.

    (And in that game, the reasons I defended Para were the same as here. I had no concrete evidence, I just said everything he was doing matched his town game and I had no reason to think he was a wolf)

    I am not saying it's never the hard world though!

    I am saying it can be the easy world or the hard world, but it's game by game, in context. We just need to figure out the people we think are town and who we think are wolves. And in this game I think the wolves are in the PoE. But I'm never listened to when I say it's the hard world, even when I'm right (and I am right sometimes - the last game I played on gamefaqs, i subbed in and called the two highest posters, the two universally towncore people wolves - and they were). So maybe you are right and it is the hard world and I'm wrong this time. That's fine. I'm just trying to explain where I am coming from and that I think both of our PoVs are valid.

    Out again now.

  4. ISO #3254
    Season 4 Champion Dels's Avatar
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    And oh god I've made this game all about Newcomb, I am @vanity. I'm sorry everyone

  5. ISO #3255
    GOAT Tier Chemist1422's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3252)
    Where are you at on Manti, Chem? Link if you've already talked about it is fine.

    I agree Ran and Manti aren't a likely pair.
    Village via read on Ran but nothing individual yet

  6. ISO #3256
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Plinko :clap: boards :clap: and :clap: waterfalls :clap:

  7. ISO #3257
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3255)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3252)
    Where are you at on Manti, Chem? Link if you've already talked about it is fine.

    I agree Ran and Manti aren't a likely pair.
    Village via read on Ran but nothing individual yet
    uhhhhhhh but you're voting Ran?

  8. ISO #3258
    GOAT Tier Chemist1422's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3257)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3255)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3252)
    Where are you at on Manti, Chem? Link if you've already talked about it is fine.

    I agree Ran and Manti aren't a likely pair.
    Village via read on Ran but nothing individual yet
    uhhhhhhh but you're voting Ran?
    Yes

    I think Ran is wolf which makes Manti spewed village

  9. ISO #3259
    Season 4 Champion Dels's Avatar
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    chem says manti is village, via his read on ran being a wolf and them not being together

    not "village read on ran"

  10. ISO #3260
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3258)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3257)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3255)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3252)
    Where are you at on Manti, Chem? Link if you've already talked about it is fine.

    I agree Ran and Manti aren't a likely pair.
    Village via read on Ran but nothing individual yet
    uhhhhhhh but you're voting Ran?
    Yes

    I think Ran is wolf which makes Manti spewed village
    Am I missing a typo?

  11. ISO #3261
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3259)
    chem says manti is village, via his read on ran being a wolf and them not being together

    not "village read on ran"
    oh. ok I had read it how you quoted it. carry on

  12. ISO #3262
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2860)
    Ampharos ISO

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#203)
    Trying to figure out if Mill Crab (who I'm considering shortening to Milk for simplicity/comedy's sake) completely whiffing on Dels's joke is AI at all.

    Leaning towards no. Maybe a tiiiny pinch of not w/w in there.
    I'd say this is somewhat in Mill's favor,as it comes off like Amy could be fishing for a reason to vote that way later, but could just as easily be a partner hesitating to make a read just yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#209)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#61)
    Mill your read feels kind of forced, why did you feel the need to transition into serious solving at this point?
    This is opportunistic.
    This really does look like Amy was trying to find where to dig her claws in. The rest of her ISO shows potential for their interactions to be partnered, but it really came off like Amy was trying to portray to Chem rather than collaborate, if that makes sense. Like Amy's posts came off like she handled Chem in a way she'd look town to him, rather than both trying to engage in natural conversation with a partner.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#224)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#220)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#64)
    i called mill crab a villager approximately five minutes ago

    but post#54 was wolfy, especially the way he referenced the post number instead of just quoting it
    Ah yes, it's true that only wolves index post numbers; villagers making $#@!ing giant walls of oblivion that are a nightmare to scroll through
    alright i'm gonna need y'all to stop missing obvious jokes or i'm gonna lose my mind
    Hmm. First reaction is that this being the second time Amy's mentioned a missed joke makes me think this was a way of discrediting towns' credibility, so this kind of gave me pause on a Para/Amy w/w world. But as I think about it more, this could have been an actual reaction based on the fact that one of his partners was looking bad for missing the joke. Let's see how the rest of the ISO progresses.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#229)
    I think I'm probably just gonna give iaafr a pass for a few days cause if he's a wolf he'll still vote for wolves.
    Trying to parse whether this was an attempt to appease iaafr and those town-reading him, or trying to convince the town that he's worth keeping alive regardless of alignment AKA Please don't kill my partner.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#235)
    Quote Originally Posted by FTFlush (#232)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#229)
    I think I'm probably just gonna give iaafr a pass for a few days cause if he's a wolf he'll still vote for wolves.
    ##Vote Ampharos
    please i don't wanna do this again
    Confirmed w/v interaction. Amy reacted to any sort of pressure from town with some hesitance. It might have been meant as dismissive, but there's an undertone of concern here.

    Now I'm curious how this stacks up against the other interactions. For starters, I already know that her stance with me was to placate and confirm their town lean on me rather than antagonize it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#268)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#261)
    Quote Originally Posted by FTFlush (#252)
    112
    THIS IS IS A HOLD UP
    give me all your reads NOW
    PUT EM IN THE BAG
    holy $#@! how did i wind up on main & hastings again!!!

    ranmilla is my 'confident' (as confident as i can be when i've only been playing for like an hour) wolf-read

    mill crab is likely town with chemist and soab.

    dels i'm tempted to call town, but his gold trophy intimidates me
    should mention that dels got his trophy almost entirely for town play

    in his one wolfgame in champs he got lynched like d3ish
    This definitely counts as a soft defense of Dels. Could be a partner keeping the deepwolf sealed in with no room for doubt.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#275)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#272)
    current radar:

    ampharos + paratroopa
    fire your radar operator
    Hmm. Amy was wolf and didn't bother hypothesizing on the Para suspicion. I kinda feel like this is a decent look for iaafr because it feels like Amy was actually trying to shut it down. This could be just friendly banter, and iaafr doesn't really follow up considering how much he waffles on Amy later, but I do feel like he made it enough of a subject that it hedges on dangerous. Of course, Amy sees iaafr as a wolf who votes wolves anyway, so this would work to her perspective of the meta.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#285)
    112 can be town, I think.

    2 down.
    I feel like this is kind of similar to how she handles reading iaafr, where it's a quick blurb with little explanation. The difference here is there is no explanation, but it does feel good for iaafr in a general sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#299)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#294)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#265)
    iaafr either gets the gun, or gets shot by a 3 poster at rand. When he inevitably flips mafia and we lose the game in f5 to an Amy/MillCrab team, the 3 poster will act like they were the only villager with their head on straight.

    Which, let's be real, they probably are.
    $#@! Amy, looks like Manti is eating the N1.
    it's ok he dies to doom blade we're fine
    Mill opened the forum, but I don't know if Amy openly embraces this fake partner interaction. Even if the joke stems from Manti's post implying they're partnered. It's just waayyyy too on the nose. I could see Mill making the move as scum, but both of them embracing it is kind of shaky.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#305)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#302)
    that's an AWFUL post by para and I ask that everyone review it.
    I... disagree? I'm pretty sure Para's got a bunch of meta on Chemist so I don't think it's an unreasonable take for him to have.
    This is where Amy starts to sound more like she's defending a partner. He wanted to persuade 112 from the suspicion, but wasn't sure how strongly she disagreed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#314)
    I'm pretty sure Para has a history of defending LHF as town (sorry chemist).

    Unless I'm misremembering he did it for sheep in Mountainous Arson and I assume he's one of the reasons I had such a hard time lynching Cemeteries.
    I actually have a bookmark for this post where I said this feels like a white knight defense if Para is town. I still kind of think that with how heavy-handed it is. If Dels had already been defending him by this point, though, it comes off less indicative and could be a good wolf move. Not sure whether the apology to chemist is AI at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#326)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#318)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#314)
    I'm pretty sure Para has a history of defending LHF as town (sorry chemist).

    Unless I'm misremembering he did it for sheep in Mountainous Arson and I assume he's one of the reasons I had such a hard time lynching Cemeteries.
    Chemist isn't lhf though
    In most playerlists you'd be correct.
    Hard to tell whether this is meant to be an indirect defense of Chemist or not. But he's definitely establishing him as easy to lynch here, and I can't tell whether it's meant to ward people from lynching him or keep him open as an option. But it could be a partner interaction with Paratroopa, even though it'd be kind of awkward with the topic being discussed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#337)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#330)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#326)
    In most playerlists you'd be correct.
    uhh

    that's a little harsh?
    I'm just saying LHF is relative and this playerlist is really strong.
    Para seems fully annoyed here, and while I know he doesn't like this kind of attitude in mafia games, I feel as mafia he might be less likely to respond in this manner. But I could see Para letting his actual feelings be known here, especially as it produces content and allows partner interaction that can't be read easily.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#341)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#335)
    112 seems like a wolf going after a ran mislynch

    amy seems a bit sus for raisins

    third thing
    rule of 3

    ##Vote Slimy Soab
    Joke vote, but I think this was meant with an intention of planting seeds, not distancing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#352)
    Gonna go do some work.

    ##Vote WaywardSon

    Pending him doing anything of note.
    This is completely incongruous with his posts before this, and makes me think he was feeling the thread sentiment and felt it was the safest, easiest place to plop a vote. I guess the question is, why did she feel compelled to leave a vote instead of just drifting away? And if she was going to do so, would she try to look on the mark or in-line with thread consensus?

    Looking at this closer, the vote tied WWS with Paratroopa at 2. This makes me wonder if it might have been a way of keeping competing wagons instead of letting Para hang in the lead. If she was just trying to find another vote to tag along with, she had to go with WWS or Flush, because the other options were No Lynch and her townreads(Dels/112). I suppose it could still be distancing, but again, the target came from nowhere, so it would be sort of an oddball choice to make your exit on. She might have felt like she needed to have her vote on the board somewhere, but considering there were 6 others who had yet to vote, it's not like she would have been the only one.

    Yeah, I think the vote had purpose, and it was to balance out wagons so Para's wouldn't become something serious without discussion on WWS.

    Could be a bit of a stretch, but regardless, it's not the worst look for Para, but it is a good look for WWS since distancing feels unlikely.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#628)
    hi

    work was nuts

    then i got home and my internet was down so i spent four hours in photoshop working on a diplomacy map

    and now i'm going to sleep

    apologies for the lack of Stuff thus far, tomorrow should prove more fruitful
    Was perfectly content to leave her vote on WWS with no comment, despite him being in the lead at this point. Even better look for WWS.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#808)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#803)
    I find it kinda interesting that with all the terms Ranmilia was unfamiliar with and asked for clarification, ISO wasn't one of them. I didn't think that was really well-known nomenclature outside of MU/POG and the meaning isn't immediately obvious.

    it got me thinking maybe someone mentioned iso in wolfchat with ran or something, but there's also a button there, and it also may be a more widespread term than I thought.

    also it's a stupid thing to even bring up or think about so meh
    i knew what ISO meant before i knew MU existed, and i was pretty clueless on terms when i first got here
    Soft defense of Ran, but considering he wasn't in any danger of being lynched at that point, it looked more like a chance to slip in a quick white knight for brownie points from Ran.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#810)
    ok so i feel like most of the people who voted me were just sheeping psycho and/or saying "something something underwhelming"

    which is pretty something something underwhelming if you ask me
    The fact that he mentions me as the leader and doesn't acknowledge Slimy's push makes me feel like it wasn't a distancing move for them to vote each other. If they were going to end up like they did soon after this post, you think he'd plant the seeds here by giving credit to Zack for being the first one to make a serious inquiry that got everyone thinking.

    Like, I take pride in the fact that I was already iffy on Amy and came to my own conclusions that made me comfortable voting her. I think I get some credit. But I think everyone knows Zack was the first true spark, and for it to be that obvious, one would think there would be discussion of it here. I guess panicky Amy could have been more concerned with the actual voters at this point.

    The following dispute between the two could have been faked and performative, and we've all gone over it and seen it, so I'm probably not gonna quote any of it, but I had said before that Amy feels legitimately cornered in that exchange, and that opinion hasn't changed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#816)
    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#443)
    Completely gut/vibe reads

    112-south of null, feels nothing like G6
    Ampharos-scum lean. Nothing really of note other than seemed to b searching for lynch of least resistance
    CatgirlMaple-read is alway backwards on them. Nothing alarming. So maybe be alarmed.
    Chemist1422-feels like town!chem.
    Dels-other than the oops where they missed me posting thing. slight town
    FTFlush-never read correctly. always feel like scum.
    iaafr-neurotic as always. slight town.
    Mill Crab-maybe the first time I haven't felt they were scummy. slight town.
    Paratroopa-nothing pinged me.
    Psycho666Soldier-need more.
    Ranmilia-want to reread. remember uneasy vibes. but can't remember why.
    Slimy Soab-zack is always scum. knew it was him at first bronana.
    Visorslash-need more.
    this is probably the only post in the WWS iso that i actively dislike; posts like these are really easy to use to throw shade at people with no real accountability

    that ranmilia read is something i've posted verbatim as a wolf before. probably more than once

    THAT SAID there's like... nothing else in his iso that i'd consider alignment indicative. at all. mostly there's just not a lot of anything. it's a fine wagon i guess but it's a LAME one
    This and the posts after where she ISOs WWS a second time is where she starts feeling more like she could be partnered with WWS. But I think the stuff before this kind of outweighs it from my new perspective. Plus, the whole bout of interactions now reads more like trying to get away with an lhf lynch and look like she knew it would probably miss.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#820)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#818)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#816)
    it's a fine wagon i guess but it's a LAME one
    not calling this wolfy but

    lol @ u having this opinion while not being caught up or having any wolfreads
    look man

    it's a process

    i've got a catchup tab open that i'm slowly working through
    This feels apologetic. Like he's trying to use AtE to convince the clever townie to not fall for this wagon.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#822)
    oh right my mentions

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#434)
    @Ampharos when you have time could you outline why you townread 112
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#465)
    @Ampharos would also like you to articulate your townread on dels at some point

    sorry for all the mentions
    not really and not really

    thanks for coming to my ted talk
    Yeah, this feels uncooperative, and not for show.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#833)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#831)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#817)
    i can think something is a bad push without thinking something is a wolfy push

    and i generally try to draw a bad vs wolfy dichotomy when people push on me because i've caught scum off that before and it feels real nice
    I feel like the problem here was less how you sort wolfy vs towny pushes and more that it seemed like a weird aside for you to be making within the context of your post?
    yes that is the thing that zack said 10 minutes ago thank you
    Hmm. Hard to say whether this sass was directed at a partner or not. I can imagine Amy was already gearing up for anti-spew mode here, but this is another situation where Para and Amy have legitimately annoyed responses with each other. Is it a bad team match-up, or a wolf and towny constantly butting heads with the added impetus of being opposite alignments?


    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#904)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#901)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#896)
    mmm

    nah

    ##Vote Slimy Soab

    i've explained my thinking. i think it makes sense. it feels like you're just being intentionally obstinate here

    and the "she's just trying to get heat off without solving the game" point is bull$#@!, because i SAID that i wasn't caught up and that i was gonna look at the votes on me first. you're wolfreading me for something i SAID i was gonna do

    nah this is straight nonsense dude
    Do you actually think zack is a wolf for this or is this just frustration
    por que no los dos

    but for real like

    there's only so many times i can reword my thoughts before said thoughts being said to not make sense starts to smell funny
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#912)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#910)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#904)
    por que no los dos

    but for real like

    there's only so many times i can reword my thoughts before said thoughts being said to not make sense starts to smell funny
    That didn't really answer my question
    i think he's a wolf and also i am frustrated
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#919)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#917)
    Okay, I needed to make sure because i'm like

    sort of struggling to see from wolf-amy's point of view how pushing zack of all people is going to help her here at all

    a counterpush on a more sensible wagon might have made sense but getting flustered here is basically just blundering her way into a d1 lynch and I feel like she's savvy enough to know better
    ...this is just a thinly veiled "amy's push is nonsense", isn't it
    These three posts are probably the ones that feel most partnered with Paratroopa. This discussion feels relatively casual and therapeutic in comparison to how she handles me and Slimy. She's lamenting and self-deprecating, while Para tries to generate discussion that leads to a reason to lean town, yet waffle on Amy. The one in the middle where he calls out her non-answer feels more like town, but I dunno...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1193)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1183)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1178)
    Do you think WWS is a wolf or not
    i literally have his iso up now gimme a sec

    though i'm guessing it hasn't rly changed much since last time i looked at it given the (21) next to his name
    update: slot could be a wolf. there's just, like, barely anything there

    read on me kinda comes out of left field - he says i seem to be "searching for the lynch of least resistance" and offers nothing to back this up

    and then he largely ignores everyone except me which is... something

    low effort game regardless of alignment. gun to head inclined to wolfread. kinda like chemist's "why me fry me" take
    He says the slot "could be" a wolf. Why not just go harder with it at this point? You have the progression necessary, come down more hard-lined if you're voting a partner at this point where it means life or death?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1208)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#1204)
    what if I told y'all

    ##Vote Dels
    bad post op
    Close to the anti-spew, but twice now she's discredited Chemist. Just seems blah.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1218)
    ftf is also low efforting which makes this read hard

    he definitely seems completely unconcerned about other people's impressions of him but idk if it's super alignment indicative for him specifically

    honestly it's hard null for me and i probably prefer a wws lynch here but i wouldn't hate resolving this slot
    Knowing FTF was town, there's no reason Amy couldn't have voted this way instead. I am actually having a really hard time considering WWS as scum while reading Amy's ISO.



    Not sure everything in here is relevant, and I skipped over some stuff for the sake of space and not having much different to say. I also ignored most of the late stuff when she was closer to anti-spew. But the tl;dr that I got from this was:

    Partners with Amy from her POV:

    Maple - Pretty easy connection
    Ranmilia - Possible, little to no interaction
    Paratroopa - Somewhat likely, but doubt increasing
    Dels - Completely compatible, but somewhat ballsy
    Chemist - Sort of likely, but feels wrong
    iaafr - Less Likely
    Mill Crab - Less Likely, and somewhat ballsy
    Slimy Soab - Highly unlikely
    WaywardSon - Highly Unlikely

    So I guess next I should look at the top 4 or 5 for how compatible they are from their perspective. This also isn't a reflection of who I think is independently wolfy. But the top 3 in particular have needed some sorting from me.
    Ok I think this mostly lines up with how my spew analysis looked? I was more unsure about WWS but I hadn't even considered Amy completely neglecting to mention WWS when she re-entered the thread. That does feel more like she's treating a villager that way instead of a partner. Manti and Ran I think I came to no conclusion/light town reads because Amy was in antispew when she mentioned them. I'm pretty confident they're not w/w though so it would have to be one of para/dels/chem if there's one wolf in manti/Ran

  13. ISO #3263
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2874)
    CatgirlMaple/Ampharos ISO:

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#265)
    iaafr either gets the gun, or gets shot by a 3 poster at rand. When he inevitably flips mafia and we lose the game in f5 to an Amy/MillCrab team, the 3 poster will act like they were the only villager with their head on straight.

    Which, let's be real, they probably are.
    Pretty innocuous post, but it seemed to put Amy a bit on the defensive, even if in a joking manner. Probably NAI, but could be the type of distancing I'd expect Manti to do.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#312)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#305)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#302)
    that's an AWFUL post by para and I ask that everyone review it.
    I... disagree? I'm pretty sure Para's got a bunch of meta on Chemist so I don't think it's an unreasonable take for him to have.
    That sort of post is ToS SOP

    It isnt alignment indicative and pretending it is is pretty lolzy
    Another light interaction that could go either way, but if it's not w/w/w between Amy, Para, Chemist, I could see where Manti is going for indirect distancing by discrediting Amy's defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1029)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1027)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1026)
    My gut says we're gonna miss today so I'm feeling out which slots I'd care the least about missing on

    Do any of yall actually feel ya have a grasp on the game? Cause without reading it don't look it
    I think there's always a wolf between Amy and 112, possibly both
    If there is, this game is insanely easy lol

    My nuts coming into the thread was saying vote 112

    I dont really have any Amy thoughts cause I haven't read her posts
    Throws some blanket shade on Amy here, but ultimately goes with the "no thoughts" route while happy to slam a gut read on 112.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1045)
    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash (#1043)
    ##Vote Ampharos
    ##Vote Ampharos
    I mean, it was more a joke/wagonomics vote than anything, but he did put the vote down on Amy at some point, so minimal points.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1149)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1145)
    no right now after reviewing isos i still find wws wolfier than ampharos
    I doubt amy dies before the shot

    Just me feelz
    Kind of an odd stance to take here, but it sort of seems like it eggs on those doubting an Amy vote.

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1141)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1138)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#1135)
    Why ya think amy a villager?
    reread the iso and the perspective makes sense for a sort of sassy villager who doesnt have enough time to be useful still being sassy and also getting pinged by zack's nittiness
    Viewing it through the lense of someone who would have hated a wolf rand, I think that's in line.

    Granted, i only read 5 posts in either direction of her voting
    Worth noting Manti was the lead wagon at this point with 4-3-2-2, with Amy being down at 2. Manti is being cool as a cucumber, and while voting town Flush, opens up the discussion of whether iaafr should trust his villager read on Amy. Seems like it would be wiser to leave Amy be and focus on the other options of Flush and WWS. The last post is a bit hedgey, but it feels more like, "here's what I feel, but don't take my word for it."

    My next thought was, "Why is he pushing for Amy instead of FTF? It's because he was voting FTF out of self-pres. I think it's kind of interesting he makes a small push for Amy as wolf after the Flush vote, but never tries to vote her here in hopes of self-preserving through an actual scumread. But ultimately, it seems like shading Amy negatively here after it looks like she could be escaping the lynch is a good look for Manti. Especially when you consider voting Amy would actually be better for both of them when either flip.


    Ultimately, there's enough light interacting and dancing around the subject that Manti could be partnered with Amy, but I actually feel there's more that lends to being unaligned with Amy. Since it's Manti, it's hard to weigh that against the evidence. But of the likely candidates, this ISO kind of made me feel like he's on the bottom of the list.
    So something that I think also needs to be considered here is that right before I left at EOD, Manti grilled me about why I was wavering on the Amy wagon after he and Visor had voted her up to 5. Manti is honestly the reason I stayed on that wagon. Forcing me to think critically about why I was having doubts, and engaging why WWS probably doesn't go over in a w/v WWS/Amy world. So, like, he would've spent EOD getting two different people to either doubt their town read on Amy or stick to her wagon. And then to just not commit to the wagon and let everyone else take that credit doesn't feel correct?

    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2879)
    Ranmilia/Ampharos ISO:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#653)
    Stepping back and looking holistically, this is where my brain ends up at:

    - Lurker trouble. Maple, FTFlush, WWS, Amy and Visorslash all do not have enough things-that-process-as-content-to-me for my brain to get a grasp on. I think there is likely at least one scum within this group. But they can't all be scum, and it's hard to say which. Need to hear more from these people.

    Visorslash has provided an explanation for this, full sympathies, hugs, life is what it is, I hope whatever it is works out. I won't be looking there further today.

    Psycho was on this list as well when I went to bed, but came in swinging with some juicy analysis and actual pushes.
    #617 in particular I think is strong.

    - Paratroopa stands at the center of a nexus of evil. You want a hard read, here you go: Either Para or the people interacting with him in the early midday are scum, or both. I think at least one scum lies within Para, Maple, Ampharos.

    I got a slightly scummy read from Para's early posting, especially the jokevote to No Cuddle. That is now muddled by knowledge that the meta here is not to push people early. Buuuut.. #537

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#537)
    I don't have any scumreads, they're just not townreads. I don't think anyone has really done anything so far that's super agenda-y or weird

    Snap judgment on your push is town
    Naw, naw naw naw naw naw. "I don't have any scumreads" is not something to still be saying near the halfway point of the day, not even in a passive meta. Town reads are easy to generate - scum knows exactly who is town and can truthfully call out what town things they are doing. Scum reads are what we need as town. We need to find the scum and vote them out, people who are not doing this are likely to be the scum.

    ##Vote Paratroopa

    Also willing to vote up:
    CatgirlMaple
    Ampharos

    Undecided on:
    FTFlush
    SlimySoab
    WaywardSon

    Null for today:
    Visorslash

    Somewhat Townie Vibes:
    Hedron Crab
    iaafr
    Chemist

    Solid Trust So Far:
    112
    Dels
    Psycho
    While Paratroopa is the focus of this post, this is where the "nexus of evil" argument comes in, and they're not shy about including Amy in their POE, specifically willing to vote her up along with CatgirlMaple. Since they end up voting Manti instead, perhaps this was just a weak distance attempt, but ehh.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#679)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#678)

    Can you explain what in particular makes you think this? Were there any specific interactions that stood out to you?

    @Ranmilia
    Well, I've just been posting on Para. Other people also mentioned Para as scummy (ref 112's posts linked in my post above, or Chemist's #244)... but Maple in #306 is the only one who bit on 112's accusation, dropped a vote on Para and has kept it there since, with very low content overall, and an actual train on Para not materializing.

    In #248, Ampharos responds to Chemist's #244 with something that could just be a joke, but also lightly throws shade on Chemist saying Para is scummy.
    In #275 similar behavior reappears in response to iaafr pairing Para+Amy.
    #314 Amy light defends Para AGAIN.
    #341 Drops vote on Soab, admittedly for a post I find slightly scummy as well, but no real case or serious push on Soab.
    #352 Switches to WWS after Chemist does, WWS remains currently the vote leader.

    Ampharos looking even worse to me on the ISO/focused reread. However, some of this scumminess is coming from defending Para. This is why I say it's a nexus, this triangle of attacking/defending Para. Scum are attacking or defending him, which one, I'm not sure yet.
    Interesting that they took the opportunity to throw a bunch of shade out at Amy when I asked for clarification and said almost nothing about Manti. Again, not ending up voting Amy at all takes away from this a bit, but it's still a great look, especially considering I was the only one voting Amy at the time. I feel like if this was a wolf trying to set their self up for a potential bus, Ran would have capitalized on the fruits of their labor. It also just generally feels like Ran felt the need to sort Amy after I had questioned for elaboration.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#815)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#803)
    I find it kinda interesting that with all the terms Ranmilia was unfamiliar with and asked for clarification, ISO wasn't one of them. I didn't think that was really well-known nomenclature outside of MU/POG and the meaning isn't immediately obvious.

    it got me thinking maybe someone mentioned iso in wolfchat with ran or something, but there's also a button there, and it also may be a more widespread term than I thought.

    also it's a stupid thing to even bring up or think about so meh
    That one I figured out from the buttons. Very useful button.

    Speaking of, just finished Soab's. A lot of spam, but also a lot of interactive content. I like it. Overall upgrade on Soab to won't vote day 1. Could be spammy scum but one of the more interactive posters and highly engaged, putting themselves out there in a way that should be catchable later.

    #376 In particular good summary of Ampharos that matches my thoughts.
    Feels good about Slimy, and advocates feeling similar about his doubt on Ampharos. Again, it seemed unnecessary to share negative thoughts on Amy at this point in the threadflow.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#899)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#888)
    Don't hate the Manti wagon I guess but it's not where I feel strongest.
    This is why it's a good wagon.

    WWS.
    Ampharos.
    FTFlush.
    CatMantigirl.

    Four very similar low content posters. Two attracting wagons, two going completely under the radar. Out of Flush and CGM, the CGM votes were more opportunistic and their posting style is pretty acerbic in ways that do not match the ways people are speaking of them.
    This one actually feels like a good candidate for a partner assessment. Ran gives a decently wide pool of lynch candidates, and doesn't seem to care about touching on the Amy/WWS side of things. This is when Amy was in the first lead, and that previous progression of finding Amy more wolfy seems to drop to the wayside. Hmm...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#960)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#946)
    yes i am a fluffy rabbit thank you

    ranmilia, do you have reasons for not wanting ampharos voted other than the amount of apparent enthusiasm and traction for the wagon?
    Her frustration, recent reactions, and slapfight with Soab read genuine to me. I am not completely sold on innocence - dirty tactics, if scum, rare but not unheard of - but I feel better about her now than I did a few hours ago. These are still weak reasons, but my main reason is the difference in wagon traction and feeling like she's the mis-exe the scum are aiming for. The stuff with Soab relies on heavy personal meta that I have to trust the rest of town on, but I'm seeing some agreement with that view now.
    Ok, here's the explanation for the doubt on Amy, but seems kind of weird that it needed to be prompted based on the progression before. It also feels a bit light, but maybe partner Ran would be more conscious of how dropping the Amy sus when she was actually in danger would be way too suspicious. So maybe by neglecting to explain it when responding to Mill Crab, they actually cleared their self? Plus, I get being paranoid about the way activity happened around Amy's wagon. It almost made me doubt my read.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#1137)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#1129)
    i probably just wanna lynch wws today.

    i feel like amy/112/ftf are all villagers right now.
    What is your reasoning for this, particularly FTF?
    Eh, it's not much, but interesting that Ran opts to ask specifically about FTF rather than Amy. That said, there wasn't much to townread FTF for on D1.


    Well, Ran could be partnered. I think the most damning thing is how they started building up a negative progression on Amy, but pretty much dropped it when Amy was actually in danger. From that point on, they tried pushing for an alternative. That said, they never really considered WWS as a serious option in comparison to Catgirl. As someone who came around to Amy being town after their interaction with Zack, it would be totally natural for them to want to vote WWS to save Amy, or even just to lynch actual scum. The fact that he POE locked himself into focusing on Catgirl and mostly ignoring WWS makes me think this wasn't a partner. The Manti wagon was almost successful, but I think that kind of effort would have followed through on to WWS. Only reason I think it wouldn't is an Amy/WWS/Ran world.

    Add all that to the early shading of Amy, and I think this is probably less likely than Manti's chances.
    I forgot that they were one of the first people to tie Para and Amy together with the nexus post. Amy/WWS/Ran is the world that makes the most sense for them to be a wolf to me. I don't think they spend all that time trying to sort rabbit before coming to town read on them D2 and then immediately go back on it at the start of today if they're paired. I guess they could be with Dels but Dels has just been independently villagery. Could see them with chemist if they were confused why chemist was getting cleared off Amy's spew reads. Though chemist voting them now makes that a thornier issue.

    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#2894)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#259)
    Quote Originally Posted by 112 (#218)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#212)
    Vote: Should I...

    a) actually try to play mafia
    b) play slay the spire instead like a piece of $#@!
    c) both???
    oh man i downloaded slay the spire a bunch of months back but only played like 15-30 minutes. i should get back into it; i really love roguelites.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#219)
    oh $#@! is it time to $#@!post about slay the spire again?

    sup para
    Were these actually votes for playing spire and I $#@!ed up by trying to play mafia

    Spire is good, it holds up through many, many playthroughs
    This is the kind of non-game related discussion I expect to occur between partners in the early phase of D1.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#271)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#268)
    should mention that dels got his trophy almost entirely for town play

    in his one wolfgame in champs he got lynched like d3ish
    Hey now, first of all he was lynched d4, second of all he still got voted into a tie for 2nd in that game
    More of the same.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#318)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#314)
    I'm pretty sure Para has a history of defending LHF as town (sorry chemist).

    Unless I'm misremembering he did it for sheep in Mountainous Arson and I assume he's one of the reasons I had such a hard time lynching Cemeteries.
    Chemist isn't lhf though
    I already covered this discussion in my Amy ISO.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#374)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#371)
    I can't even articulate my issue with amy's posts, or at least I don't care to

    she just seems like a wolf

    there's some vague non-controversial posts and a bunch of fluff. It's suspiciously non-controversial, actually.
    Is controversy normally a defining factor of Amy's posts? That doesn't sound like her from the times I've played with her
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#379)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#209)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#61)
    Mill your read feels kind of forced, why did you feel the need to transition into serious solving at this point?
    This is opportunistic.
    This is the only Amy post that really stands out to me just because her post seems more opportunistic than Chemist's does

    Everything else seems sort of rand, I don't really recall Amy not having a bland start in mountainous arson (no offense)
    When I look at the context of this post, it's when Zack and iaafr first started the sus of Amy. Zack gave his read that was based on Amy seeming non-controversial and unremarkable for the amount of "content" she had produced at the time. When asked to look at her ISO, this is the only thing that stands out to him, and it essentially results in a null read. It kind of feels like an attempt to nip the shade in the bud before it blooms too far. It could be Para doing his usual town meta of not feeling comfortable voting someone for lhf-ish reasons, but maaaan is this an easy post to make as scum. Not to mention he doesn't engage with the discussion past this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#525)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#504)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#499)
    Psycho I am very flattered by your expectations of me doing anything but mostly being kind of catty day 1
    This is charming as hell and I'm almost tempted to unvote you on that alone. Not happening, though. At least not until I've caught up.

    Have you had any scumreads yet? Who of your townreads are your strongest atm?
    Yeah I guess it's time to try this

    Townreads:

    Chemist - Just seemed to have some really pure opening stuff. I really liked that he seemed like he was trying to be solvy even when only a handful of people had shown up to the game, just seems like a town player who's using whatever he has in front of him no matter what it is

    iaafr - Has been throwing out suspects pretty freely in a way that feels very similar to the way I expect him to try to figure out games, and in a way that I think is kind of hard for wolves to fake

    Ranmilia - I don't really know what kind of wolf player Ran would normally be but 'no I'm actually serious about going after Dels' as early as they did would just be a super weird wolf opening imo

    Zack - Seems like he's asking good questions, active, probably just town

    Mill Crab - I had some good pings on him at one point but I forgot what they were

    Dels - Didn't have as many monkeys as I expected in his opening post but his recent analysis agrees with mine so that's a good look. His defense of me is almost word for word what I would expect to see out of town-Dels. Dels is always going to be kind of a weird dynamic for me because I know that he knows what I'm looking for

    Not currently townreads:

    112 - Didn't really like her vote/reasoning on me but I thought her response was okay? Just seemed pretty forthright in a way I wasn't expecting

    WWS - I kind of think if he was a wolf he would have done more by now but nothing AI here

    Manti
    Amy
    Psycho
    Flush
    Visor - No idea on any of these really

    Did I get everyone? Wow that's everyone
    It's kind of odd he has nothing to say about Amy considering he had ISO'd her earlier, but fair enough that it really wasn't much to read into. But it's also interesting that he has nothing to feel about me despite me coming at him and giving him good reason to have a handle on my alignment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#921)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#919)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#917)
    Okay, I needed to make sure because i'm like

    sort of struggling to see from wolf-amy's point of view how pushing zack of all people is going to help her here at all

    a counterpush on a more sensible wagon might have made sense but getting flustered here is basically just blundering her way into a d1 lynch and I feel like she's savvy enough to know better
    ...this is just a thinly veiled "amy's push is nonsense", isn't it
    Uhhhh

    I mean I don't think you're right about zack, I just don't know if you mean it or not
    I covered this discussion in Amy's ISO, but this reply wasn't in there. This is again the kind of interaction that is perfectly in range for partners to make. He's grilling Amy without actually coming to much conclusion on her, seeming to fill space and give her a chance to talk her way out of being lynched. It's similar to when a wolf partner asks a partner to claim, or what their legacy reads are.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#846)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#837)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#813)
    Ranmilia has your view on Para changed after the discussion we had and/or based on further "meta" context?
    No, not really. "Oh, that's just Para, he does this every time, it's fine! Don't worry, I'm sure he'd say something that would ping me if he was evil!" Well... that explains why YOU aren't voting him, but that still doesn't tell me anything about Para himself since if that's his personal meta he'd surely do the same things as scum. I don't trust other people's "tone reading" abilities to be better than scum~Para's own ability to fake town tone.

    I am grudgingly accepting that people don't want to vote him today, but it is really going to suck when we go into later days and have to try to read Para's history of no early votes and no hard stances taken beyond "the strongest townies, who have been nightkilled by now, were town."

    Retyped this because earlier versions came out sounding hostile. Para is nice and cool. @Paratroopa when you get here, please vote for the person you think is most likely to be scum.

    I actually liked the tone of Para's interactions too, but I can't let a vote history of "No Cuddle, Unvote No Cuddle" pass... No one jumping on is weirding me out.
    ##Vote CatgirlMaple

    Hasn't really done anything except drop a vote on me that I don't understand, not convinced of the suspiciousness of WWS's iso yet and the Amy wagon just has the gut feel of a d1 mislynch but those would be my next two, I just think catgirl (manti) would have done more by now (though like WWS a lack of wim isn't a scumtell)

    Can't really respond to the rest of this post since it's all wifom if I do, but don't worry about sounding hostile, it's mafia and I can take it
    This entire exchange actually feels like it could have been a partner interaction here. Ran comes in to push Para after I had given up on it, takes him to task, all to reveal...that it was mostly a test to see who would vote Manti? Ran strikes me as the type to FPS a lot, so I could see him actually doing something like this. But I could also see Ran making a big scheme to distance from Para early on, and transition it into a coordinated assault on a townie. I mean, it almost worked.

    As far as Amy is concerned, Para says he thinks Amy is a mislynch, but gives himself an out to vote her or WWS. He did end up voting WWS instead, by the way.

    I could see a Amy/Ran/Para world because of this, but not willing to run with that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#941)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#937)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#936)
    maybe that's what she wants you to think
    the thing is she can't rely on people like me and para existing to say these things

    from her pov the most likely thing is people would just say "oh you're not posting reads, you're omgusing, die"
    cool now I don't have to make the same exact point

    I mean it's possible that it's just wolf-amy being super flustered but I feel like if she were a wolf she'd have... something else going on, someone to coordinate with and make a different push, I dunno

    instead she's relying on me making a pretty tenuous townread of her based on her getting mad at zack?
    More of Para's pretty strong defense of Amy, but not only is it piggy-backing off of top town Dels(who I think is definitely town if Para is wolf), it's also very reasonable and could be explained, because I think everyone thought Amy's response was a bit bizarre for a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1178)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1171)
    ##Vote WaywardSon

    self-pres

    guess i should start isoing the wagons or something?
    Do you think WWS is a wolf or not
    This actually kind of sounds like a town that's annoyed with Amy's repeated lack of explanation. So he gets some decent points for that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#1221)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#1213)
    honestly manti's iso reminds me of his d1 in long phase mountainous and that's good enough for me for today, i think
    Is this a good thing?
    But this one, while probably NAI, is another that feels fully within range of partnered interaction.


    *BIG SIGH*

    I'm trying not to confbias, and there are certain posts here that really make me feel like Para was at odds with Amy. But Paratroopa is also the type who has to fight to not say what he's thinking, and I think that could translate into openly calling out his partners for what he deems as stupid, rude, or frustrating antics. There's honestly so much indirect defense here, wasting of space, casual conversation, and an overall waffling of Amy that I can't help but get the sense that this was a partner that didn't know what to do with the crappy d1 predicament they had fallen into.

    I want to look at Para's ISO as a whole and see how I feel about him coming out of it, because there have been posts that have given me town vibes(the most recent being the post about randing the gun). But from Para's side, there's actually plenty of room to be partnered with Amy. I'd definitely put him above Ran and Manti.
    I don't see a Ran/Para/Amy world working because, despite coming to that town read near EOD1, they've been trying to bury him since. Like, it's just as unlikely for me that they're partners as Ran and Manti. I think what Para has going best for him right now is that he's not really trying to open up the POE like Zack said, and he does have these posts every so often that make me pause because the tone is just so good.

  14. ISO #3264
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Page 59


    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2913)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#338)
    Chemist still fine. I do think it's villagery that he was getting a bit skeeved by all the town reads.

    Amy is generally agreeable and i'm nodding along to her posts.

    112 way off from me on their ran read but I don't think it's wolfy, just wrong if that makes sense?

    Flush I've already forgotten his posts. Para fine, not really seeing what 112 is seeing there but I'm also not super paying attention. I feel like I should have thoughts about Manti but I don't oh well that's future Mill's problem.
    This is odd because it doesn't actually give an actual read on Amy but could be me confbiasing
    Yeah that's probably my worst post this game, but props to iaafr, dels, and psycho for pushing me to back it up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2916)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#681)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#607)
    yeah the more i think about it the more i really don't like wws' post which psycho just quoted, where wws quotes half a dozen amy posts. it just feels a bit forced and i don't feel like each of them was necessary. i can't articulate more than that.

    not really sold on ranmilia as a wolf. i can see how the list of reasons against me could be forced and maybe i was too quick to just give town cred for effort, but I really don't know if this is how Ranmilia would choose to start as a wolf. Not that I have any reason to think they'd be a struggling wolf, but eh.

    Mill Crab I forgot to mention earlier but I can actually see as being a wolf. The early posts felt "tryhard"-y but not in a really wolfy way. But that's somewhere I may have given cred too easily. I agree that Mill Crab's most recent post in his ISO for example started feeling a bit too safe or generic.
    Yeah, I keep coming back to the wall of Amy questions and the questions don't really seem that in-depth and I'd expect WWS to try and question more than just Amy.

    Fair point about my final posts yesterday being generic and safe. I think that's a function of having moved to my phone and I how I tend to process things through my phone compared to a computer. But I think the call out is still valid and I deserve heat if Amy is a wolf.
    uh is this ever a wolf post?

    or is it ever a villager post?

    oh god the wifom is attacking help
    Well, I know, but that doesn't help you. I think it's important that if someone has poor interactions with a wolf that they are held accountable and get properly examined. I'm not exempt from that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2920)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2919)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#745)
    These are the closest posts that I could find in Manti's ISO that feel even remotely AI and/or he's giving something I consider to be a serious take.


    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#130)
    Being bothered by 36, but not being bothered by soab.
    I guess laying the foundation that he thinks I'm w/w with Zack? But, like, he's also the only one to make that comment I think, so good on him for pointing out something no one else had?

    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#306)
    I was just gonna cfd them at eod but this works too

    ##Vote Paratroopa
    No idea why he's scum reading Para, but this vote at least feels more real than his chemist vote. Vote really doesn't look great if Para is a villager though.


    I feel like I'm stretching to even get a read out of these two posts, but gth town? I'm hoping he just becomes more obvious as the game goes on.
    I'm forcing myself to not call this scum avoiding taking a solid stance and it's only half working
    Like I think the lack of a solid stance is sort of scummy but the effort to get a stance at all is villagery so I'm conflicted
    Players that I find hard to sort, like Manti, I just always have an awful time coming to a conclusion on. Like, I went down each post and forced myself to go "town post or wolf post?" and even then I couldn't parse it well because he's such a damn enigma for me.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2922)
    so bit of meta that might be false but that I'm confbiasing

    I think chem as villa tends to believe things more strongly and the extreme constant hedginess here (second guessing literally every single take) is wolf indicative
    Eh, I was able to push for his mislynch in the January mentor game because he hedged on some reads, so I don't buy this take.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2931)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2926)
    status update: still tunneling para chem, third spot became ran but then that sus eased up a bit, esp after thinking why would scum ran wanna alienate me by entering like this
    Does my case on chem give you any doubts about them, or doubts about whether or not we would be partnered?
    I'm starting to doubt it slightly, but I'd need to see you flip v/get confirmed by psycho to be a total believer. I'm circling back a bit to chem v from amy's posts, but less so because of your case. If you're partnered, man, I think you guys are in so much trouble regardless of what you do that I don't think it moves the needle for me. If you tunnel him we say "yeah, he had to do that because they're cornered and in the POE." If you defend him we say "yeah, he had to do that to try and confuse us enough that we clear chemist."


    Chem, it looks like you were trying to scum read me but were struggling to come up with anything super solid. Do you think I'm a wolf? You dropped that thread coming back today, but I'd like to hear your conclusion on me and why.

  15. ISO #3265
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    If anyone's around and wants to chat while I catch up, I wouldn't mind the company.

  16. ISO #3266
    GOAT Tier Chemist1422's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3264)
    Page 59


    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2913)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#338)
    Chemist still fine. I do think it's villagery that he was getting a bit skeeved by all the town reads.

    Amy is generally agreeable and i'm nodding along to her posts.

    112 way off from me on their ran read but I don't think it's wolfy, just wrong if that makes sense?

    Flush I've already forgotten his posts. Para fine, not really seeing what 112 is seeing there but I'm also not super paying attention. I feel like I should have thoughts about Manti but I don't oh well that's future Mill's problem.
    This is odd because it doesn't actually give an actual read on Amy but could be me confbiasing
    Yeah that's probably my worst post this game, but props to iaafr, dels, and psycho for pushing me to back it up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2916)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#681)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#607)
    yeah the more i think about it the more i really don't like wws' post which psycho just quoted, where wws quotes half a dozen amy posts. it just feels a bit forced and i don't feel like each of them was necessary. i can't articulate more than that.

    not really sold on ranmilia as a wolf. i can see how the list of reasons against me could be forced and maybe i was too quick to just give town cred for effort, but I really don't know if this is how Ranmilia would choose to start as a wolf. Not that I have any reason to think they'd be a struggling wolf, but eh.

    Mill Crab I forgot to mention earlier but I can actually see as being a wolf. The early posts felt "tryhard"-y but not in a really wolfy way. But that's somewhere I may have given cred too easily. I agree that Mill Crab's most recent post in his ISO for example started feeling a bit too safe or generic.
    Yeah, I keep coming back to the wall of Amy questions and the questions don't really seem that in-depth and I'd expect WWS to try and question more than just Amy.

    Fair point about my final posts yesterday being generic and safe. I think that's a function of having moved to my phone and I how I tend to process things through my phone compared to a computer. But I think the call out is still valid and I deserve heat if Amy is a wolf.
    uh is this ever a wolf post?

    or is it ever a villager post?

    oh god the wifom is attacking help
    Well, I know, but that doesn't help you. I think it's important that if someone has poor interactions with a wolf that they are held accountable and get properly examined. I'm not exempt from that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2920)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2919)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#745)
    These are the closest posts that I could find in Manti's ISO that feel even remotely AI and/or he's giving something I consider to be a serious take.




    I guess laying the foundation that he thinks I'm w/w with Zack? But, like, he's also the only one to make that comment I think, so good on him for pointing out something no one else had?

    I was just gonna cfd them at eod but this works too

    ##Vote Paratroopa

    No idea why he's scum reading Para, but this vote at least feels more real than his chemist vote. Vote really doesn't look great if Para is a villager though.


    I feel like I'm stretching to even get a read out of these two posts, but gth town? I'm hoping he just becomes more obvious as the game goes on.
    I'm forcing myself to not call this scum avoiding taking a solid stance and it's only half working
    Like I think the lack of a solid stance is sort of scummy but the effort to get a stance at all is villagery so I'm conflicted
    Players that I find hard to sort, like Manti, I just always have an awful time coming to a conclusion on. Like, I went down each post and forced myself to go "town post or wolf post?" and even then I couldn't parse it well because he's such a damn enigma for me.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2922)
    so bit of meta that might be false but that I'm confbiasing

    I think chem as villa tends to believe things more strongly and the extreme constant hedginess here (second guessing literally every single take) is wolf indicative
    Eh, I was able to push for his mislynch in the January mentor game because he hedged on some reads, so I don't buy this take.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2931)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2926)
    status update: still tunneling para chem, third spot became ran but then that sus eased up a bit, esp after thinking why would scum ran wanna alienate me by entering like this
    Does my case on chem give you any doubts about them, or doubts about whether or not we would be partnered?
    I'm starting to doubt it slightly, but I'd need to see you flip v/get confirmed by psycho to be a total believer. I'm circling back a bit to chem v from amy's posts, but less so because of your case. If you're partnered, man, I think you guys are in so much trouble regardless of what you do that I don't think it moves the needle for me. If you tunnel him we say "yeah, he had to do that because they're cornered and in the POE." If you defend him we say "yeah, he had to do that to try and confuse us enough that we clear chemist."


    Chem, it looks like you were trying to scum read me but were struggling to come up with anything super solid. Do you think I'm a wolf? You dropped that thread coming back today, but I'd like to hear your conclusion on me and why.
    No not really

    The only thing that’s actually wolfy about you is your self-awareness

    I think your tone and solving have been towny

  17. ISO #3267
    GOAT Tier Chemist1422's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3265)
    If anyone's around and wants to chat while I catch up, I wouldn't mind the company.
    Yo

    I might be popping in and out because school but I’m around rn

  18. ISO #3268
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Page 60

    Question for @iaafr

    [spoiler]
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2966)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2965)
    Was there something not-w/w about ran/manti as a pairing? I thought I had something in my head that said that but I forgot what it was
    ran yelled for manti lynch eod1

    not that loudly tbh

    i dont remember it being very compelling at all

    and i feel like it mightve been that way by design

    also mightve been counting on town disorganization with 2 w wagons on the table to end up lynching a v or idk

    its not clearing imo
    Maybe not super compelling but I had noted it and briefly considered it because it's something I've seen almost work against me. But then Manti convinced me to hold my ground.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2989)
    Amy left the 112 read unexplained but gave a token justification for the dels read

    I remember para putting himself out there to defend Amy and dels quietly agreeing (might be wrong)

    And I did make the d1 prediction that dels would flip wolf day four

    All the clues were there. EOD 1 makes a lot more sense.
    If Dels is my acidphoenix this game, I'll be sad. And I think you have it backwards because Dels made the point and then Para agreed with him.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2992)
    could mill crab, esp if y'all believe chem is town

    112 was skeeved by mc at some points

    i was too

    i called mc out on giving amy too easy a townread, which pressured him into bussing her if he's the deeper wolf with time to play the game

    d3 dropoff...?
    I don't think I've had a precipitous dropoff today. I got several hours in yesterday when I had the time and I'll be around most of today since work is slow. You did call me out, and it made me go back and reassess, which I did. I don't remember if you've been around for my bussing talks in various DVC's/specchat, but my wolf play is to kill villagers and powerwolf it. I'll distance early, especially in mashes, but when it comes down to it, I always end up on a villager unless the wolf is mechanically outted. Even if you want to discount all that as WIFOM, I think I've been pretty clear and open this game and have demonstrated that I don't have TMI and am trying to solve who the wolves are.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2999)
    the logic for why i was scummy at sod still just feels off... im scum for not pushing through with para after slightly sussing him mid d2 yesterday

    so i'm para's most likely partner?

    feels like a fake constructed thought designed to pressure me towards pushing para today
    Like I said, I think there's still a wolf between you/wws/Para and I resolve you last and only if both were town.

  19. ISO #3269
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    RIP formatting

  20. ISO #3270
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3266)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3264)
    Page 59


    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2913)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#338)
    Chemist still fine. I do think it's villagery that he was getting a bit skeeved by all the town reads.

    Amy is generally agreeable and i'm nodding along to her posts.

    112 way off from me on their ran read but I don't think it's wolfy, just wrong if that makes sense?

    Flush I've already forgotten his posts. Para fine, not really seeing what 112 is seeing there but I'm also not super paying attention. I feel like I should have thoughts about Manti but I don't oh well that's future Mill's problem.
    This is odd because it doesn't actually give an actual read on Amy but could be me confbiasing
    Yeah that's probably my worst post this game, but props to iaafr, dels, and psycho for pushing me to back it up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2916)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#681)
    Yeah, I keep coming back to the wall of Amy questions and the questions don't really seem that in-depth and I'd expect WWS to try and question more than just Amy.

    Fair point about my final posts yesterday being generic and safe. I think that's a function of having moved to my phone and I how I tend to process things through my phone compared to a computer. But I think the call out is still valid and I deserve heat if Amy is a wolf.
    uh is this ever a wolf post?

    or is it ever a villager post?

    oh god the wifom is attacking help
    Well, I know, but that doesn't help you. I think it's important that if someone has poor interactions with a wolf that they are held accountable and get properly examined. I'm not exempt from that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2920)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2919)
    I'm forcing myself to not call this scum avoiding taking a solid stance and it's only half working
    Like I think the lack of a solid stance is sort of scummy but the effort to get a stance at all is villagery so I'm conflicted
    Players that I find hard to sort, like Manti, I just always have an awful time coming to a conclusion on. Like, I went down each post and forced myself to go "town post or wolf post?" and even then I couldn't parse it well because he's such a damn enigma for me.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2922)
    so bit of meta that might be false but that I'm confbiasing

    I think chem as villa tends to believe things more strongly and the extreme constant hedginess here (second guessing literally every single take) is wolf indicative
    Eh, I was able to push for his mislynch in the January mentor game because he hedged on some reads, so I don't buy this take.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2931)
    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2926)
    status update: still tunneling para chem, third spot became ran but then that sus eased up a bit, esp after thinking why would scum ran wanna alienate me by entering like this
    Does my case on chem give you any doubts about them, or doubts about whether or not we would be partnered?
    I'm starting to doubt it slightly, but I'd need to see you flip v/get confirmed by psycho to be a total believer. I'm circling back a bit to chem v from amy's posts, but less so because of your case. If you're partnered, man, I think you guys are in so much trouble regardless of what you do that I don't think it moves the needle for me. If you tunnel him we say "yeah, he had to do that because they're cornered and in the POE." If you defend him we say "yeah, he had to do that to try and confuse us enough that we clear chemist."


    Chem, it looks like you were trying to scum read me but were struggling to come up with anything super solid. Do you think I'm a wolf? You dropped that thread coming back today, but I'd like to hear your conclusion on me and why.
    No not really

    The only thing that’s actually wolfy about you is your self-awareness

    I think your tone and solving have been towny
    Mmkay.

    I keep finding things that I liked about people in my POE, so I feel like I'm not getting anywhere.

    If Ran is a wolf and was trying to draw heat off Amy D1, who's the last wolf?

    Ran/Manti - Unlikely because that's who they tried to run up
    Ran/Chemist - Impossible from you POV but off the top of my head I don't think there's anything that makes this impossible?
    Ran/Dels - Early push on Dels that most people discounted though it looks like they're butting heads right now. Possible I think but then they both sat off wagon with Dels afk and didn't bother trying to save Amy.
    Ran/iaafr - rabbit pushes them yesterday and Ran comes in pushing rabbit but neither has followed through with it that I've seen. Ran backed off today after seeing that rabbit is currently pushing a para/chem world. Possible but that means Amy shut down rabbit's attempts to interact with her multiple times
    Ran/Mill Crab - impossible from my POV
    Ran/Para - Unlikely because they've been pushing for his lynch for two days now
    Ran/Zack - Possible but it requires Zack to be a wolf which is pretty lol
    Ran/WWS - Would be a very possible pairing with how they tried pushing Manti up as the third cw.

  21. ISO #3271
    GOAT Tier Chemist1422's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3270)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3266)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3264)
    Page 59


    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2913)
    This is odd because it doesn't actually give an actual read on Amy but could be me confbiasing
    Yeah that's probably my worst post this game, but props to iaafr, dels, and psycho for pushing me to back it up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2916)
    uh is this ever a wolf post?

    or is it ever a villager post?

    oh god the wifom is attacking help
    Well, I know, but that doesn't help you. I think it's important that if someone has poor interactions with a wolf that they are held accountable and get properly examined. I'm not exempt from that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2920)
    Like I think the lack of a solid stance is sort of scummy but the effort to get a stance at all is villagery so I'm conflicted
    Players that I find hard to sort, like Manti, I just always have an awful time coming to a conclusion on. Like, I went down each post and forced myself to go "town post or wolf post?" and even then I couldn't parse it well because he's such a damn enigma for me.

    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2922)
    so bit of meta that might be false but that I'm confbiasing

    I think chem as villa tends to believe things more strongly and the extreme constant hedginess here (second guessing literally every single take) is wolf indicative
    Eh, I was able to push for his mislynch in the January mentor game because he hedged on some reads, so I don't buy this take.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2931)
    Does my case on chem give you any doubts about them, or doubts about whether or not we would be partnered?
    I'm starting to doubt it slightly, but I'd need to see you flip v/get confirmed by psycho to be a total believer. I'm circling back a bit to chem v from amy's posts, but less so because of your case. If you're partnered, man, I think you guys are in so much trouble regardless of what you do that I don't think it moves the needle for me. If you tunnel him we say "yeah, he had to do that because they're cornered and in the POE." If you defend him we say "yeah, he had to do that to try and confuse us enough that we clear chemist."


    Chem, it looks like you were trying to scum read me but were struggling to come up with anything super solid. Do you think I'm a wolf? You dropped that thread coming back today, but I'd like to hear your conclusion on me and why.
    No not really

    The only thing that’s actually wolfy about you is your self-awareness

    I think your tone and solving have been towny
    Mmkay.

    I keep finding things that I liked about people in my POE, so I feel like I'm not getting anywhere.

    If Ran is a wolf and was trying to draw heat off Amy D1, who's the last wolf?

    Ran/Manti - Unlikely because that's who they tried to run up
    Ran/Chemist - Impossible from you POV but off the top of my head I don't think there's anything that makes this impossible?
    Ran/Dels - Early push on Dels that most people discounted though it looks like they're butting heads right now. Possible I think but then they both sat off wagon with Dels afk and didn't bother trying to save Amy.
    Ran/iaafr - rabbit pushes them yesterday and Ran comes in pushing rabbit but neither has followed through with it that I've seen. Ran backed off today after seeing that rabbit is currently pushing a para/chem world. Possible but that means Amy shut down rabbit's attempts to interact with her multiple times
    Ran/Mill Crab - impossible from my POV
    Ran/Para - Unlikely because they've been pushing for his lynch for two days now
    Ran/Zack - Possible but it requires Zack to be a wolf which is pretty lol
    Ran/WWS - Would be a very possible pairing with how they tried pushing Manti up as the third cw.
    Yeah WWS was my first guess

    They treated WWS in mostly the same way they did Amy so

  22. ISO #3272
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3197)
    Okay Psycho I have read your posts.

    re WWS:

    You noted that you felt Amy leaving her vote on WWS when she first left (352) was "unlikely" to be distancing. I think that's a big stretch. It makes total sense that as a wolf she might just place a vote on a wolf partner who is otherwise not a huge suspect, she admits it's a pressure vote, she knows she can take it off later, and it can look like distancing in the future.

    You said she was "content to leave her vote on WWS" despite him being the lead (628) but a) if he's the lead, it's a particularly bad time to unvote because if he flips mafia you look bad, and b) she DID try to move her vote later, she moved it to Zack at her first opportunity. And she justified it by hating Zack's push, which could cover from the fact that it's an unvote of WWS. And c) In the post you cited, its 4am and she literally is saying she's sleeping without reading/posting, so why would she remove the vote for no reason?

    You also said Amy would come out more "hard-lined" against WWS later if they are w/w, for the distancing cred. But what is there to be hard-lined about? It's true, WWS hadn't posted much. The most she can do is tentatively agree he's an okay wagon because he hasn't done much. It's a hard position if you're wolf with him because you can't defend him, you're scared if you unvote him it'll look partnered, and so I can see Amy as a wolf feeling she needs to find a reason to stay on but not being able to say anything compelling. And unlike WWS, she doesn't play the "alright he's obviously a wolf let's go" card

    ---

    Besides that I don't have any major comments. Lots of the stuff you mentioned are good points. Agree that Para's interactions with Amy are the best reason for him to be wolf and I thought it was a good case (hence why I couldn't defend him from it) but his posts tonight overtake that and make me think he is town. Let me know what you think when you have read them, my view is not necessarily the correct one since I am "too close to it".

    with Ran I agree that mentioning Amy as a suspect but not going there can look wolfy but it is pretty harsh to bring up at all. I think even if WWS is town, Ran wouldn't really be able to go on those wagons if a wolf because they've shown that's not how they play the game. But I could be wrong, and it's a good point.

    Manti's progression on Amy is similar in that he sort of ignores her, then shades her, votes her, but ultimately goes elsewhere.

    I think these are all good points and I would never exclude any of them from being partners with Amy, but also agree some stuff in these ISOs (mostly Ran's and Manti's) makes it weird

    Ultimately we have to make some sort of call and the options are all valid.

    Right now, after the overnight discussion and having some time to think about it, I would shoot WWS. I think his posts to Amy were weak, his confidence was out of nowhere with no progression or nuance, his d2 PoV was unsubstantiated and he's just... not townie. There doesn't seem to be any major meta argument for him being town either. This is what I keep coming back to and I would like to go with my gut on it because it is just what makes the most sense to me. But let me know what you think.
    My point on WWS is about the entire context of the thread when she made her vote. Why not park on Flush, who was a perfectly reasonable vote at that point? Why feed into the WWS paranoia at that point?

    For the second point, WWS had come back and generated some content, the most prominent of that being the "casing" of Amy. If you're partners doing distancing to that level, why not add to that by responding? Say you skimmed and found this relevant to respond to before going to sleep. Or better yet, say WWS' actually did "something(the thing Amy was placing the vote for) and unvote? This just makes little sense as a distance play.

    And you say he voted Zack later, but if he was looking for an excuse to get off, why didn't he stay off? Why not find a way to be convinced by the Manti wagon, or again, FTF? Why chain yourself to the WWS possibility when he wasn't the only wagon?

    Again, if they're distancing and Amy is using this a hail mary to get get some cred after looking awful, why not just hard-line it with something like, "Look at that underwhelming iso. I'll be shocked if WWS flips green.". He even had an example of a townie who had done something similar(my case on Amy was basically, "She's underwhelming and I can't look at her ISO without seeing a wolf.". If this was all for the sake of distancing, it was the flimsiest distancing ever considering how long the seeds had been planted.

    Just the simple fact that not one of them considered flipping to Manti when he was a viable wagon seems like the least likely move from a w/w world.

    -------

    I don't really have much comment on the rest because it mostly agrees with my points and expresses the same reservations I have. I will confirm that Para's play today baffles me as a wolf. Consistently tunneling on Manti and shutting out mislynch options seems bad. Like, if Para is scum, and we actually trust him about shooting Manti, what happens if Manti is cleared by my shot? Para looks awful, Manti probably continues that crusade while being buried by Mill and Ran.

    That said, Ran's post about him not considering the world where he survives the shot and how to follow-through did grab my interest a bit.

  23. ISO #3273
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3199)
    @Dels what do you make of the above exchange? Para is so checked out that he appears to actually not realize that Psycho is thinking of shooting him with the gun?? Or what will logically happen immediately afterwards if he is shot and is town???
    Actually, the fact he isn't thinking about me wanting to shoot him makes me think he has no reason to be scared. A wolf would subconsciously recognize the person with the gun is considering them a top target, and consistently.

  24. ISO #3274
    Also, has anyone else gone over my cases for potential Amy partners other than Dels? I'd like some feedback and peer review on some of it, because I feel like my conclusions based on behavior and vote analysis isn't really lining up with my partner conclusions.

  25. ISO #3275
    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#3201)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3103)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3098)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3028)
    ran - who was afraid of flush getting the gun in your opinion?
    My assumptions: Flush will live up to his word to shoot me, I am town, Para is scum, after I am shot and confirmed the town listens to me and kills Para.

    I die Night 3.
    i keep forgetting that the person who gets shot lives if they are town and therefore it does make sense that you'd think that even if flush shoots you, that's still bad for wolves in this scenario
    Seriously? So I won't be done if 666 shoots me? $#@!.
    Not sure if this perspective clears WWS or if it should file under "Denied derp clears".

  26. ISO #3276
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    I think Zack and iaafr are both fairly townie in their methods of trying to tinfoil me. Like, I totally understand the feeling that things aren't really lining up and looking at what that means for the people you're townreading.

    $#@! I have to go read Dels don't I?

  27. ISO #3277
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3274)
    Also, has anyone else gone over my cases for potential Amy partners other than Dels? I'd like some feedback and peer review on some of it, because I feel like my conclusions based on behavior and vote analysis isn't really lining up with my partner conclusions.
    I have a response either on this page or the last one. Para still looks like the most likely paired out of him/Ran/Manti. Don't know if you got to other people. But like, he just seems to keep doing his thing and isn't playing like a wolf trying to stay alive and that's throwing me off

  28. ISO #3278
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3217)
    like believe it or not i am on the opposite side of what i usually argue here. i am usually the one arguing that we need to not trust the towncore and we can't lynch in the PoE.

    but the difference here is that i trust everyone in the towncore, and the people in the PoE, i do not have reasons to clear them or think they are lhf or mislynches or etc

    if we lynch the people in our PoE and they are all flipping town, i will not just blindly keep following it without taking another look at the people we are clearing. but again, that's not where we are at today. we have good targets today. we are either in an easy world or a hard world. and i don't see a reason to assume we are in the hard world right now without even seeing if it's not the easy world.

    (I'm tagging @Newcomb in this because he'd laugh that I am making this argument)
    You're telling me that you don't see Chemist as lhf right now? I know this was a discussion on D1, and I mean absolutely no disrespect to his play on a whole. I actually think Chemist is a solid player that I love being in the same playerlist as. But if he's town, the only reason people haven't voted him is because he's TWTBAW(Too wolfy to be a wolf, for Ran). He is the easiest lynch to get away with right now and be able to write off as, "Well everyone was saying it," "He wasn't helping himself," etc. I'd also argue that WWS is lhf who is only protected by wagonomics.

  29. ISO #3279
    GOAT Tier Chemist1422's Avatar
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    Psycho can you shoot soon

  30. ISO #3280
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3219)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3209)
    Ranmilia, let me ask you this:

    You said yesterday that when you asked me for my opinion of Para, and if I actually definitively said I thought he was town, you would either trust me and re-evaluate, or assume I am his partner.

    If I said I thought Para was town now, would you trust it? (I'm not saying I am or am not saying that, I am just curious your answer)
    I would definitely consider it if you could give me a reason based on facts and logic, a difference between town and scum behavior, showing something like a time when Para did something that scum Para would not do, or failed to do something that scum Para would have compelling reason to do.

    I haven't heard that yet. I just keep hearing "tone" and "gut" and "well, these are things I've seen town Para do in past games."

    OR if you gave me a True Gut Read Trust Me Para Is Town... at one point I would have considered it, but you've already said that isn't how you feel so I'd need to hear what changed.

    We've been here before, the other way around. Day 1 I was looking for the read from Para. I believed it, I joined him on Maple, I felt good about it. But I was wrong, it was Ampharos, you think I was SUPER wrong and it was BOTH other wagons, and Maple turned on a reevaluation that looked way better than I thought. But Para's still here saying the same thing, and the two of you are telling me -now- I should get back on the day 1 wagon, Para is town Maple is maybe scum?

    I dunno man. I dunno.
    This feels pure af. Reads like Ran is actually angry about being burned by trusting the meta on Para. Like he actually needs more concrete evidence for his mind to even consider the world with any amount of seriousness.

  31. ISO #3281
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#3279)
    Psycho can you shoot soon
    I aim to shoot within the next two hours. I want to catch up(almost there) and at least case you and Dels for partner potential with Amy. Ideally, is be able to do a proper iso of Para and Manti, but that might not happen. Because I want to make sure you guys have a decent chunk of time to discuss the fallout. Especially if I shoot wrong.

  32. ISO #3282
    Cuddles Wolves Mill Crab's Avatar Flake Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3103)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3098)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3028)
    ran - who was afraid of flush getting the gun in your opinion?
    My assumptions: Flush will live up to his word to shoot me, I am town, Para is scum, after I am shot and confirmed the town listens to me and kills Para.

    I die Night 3.
    i keep forgetting that the person who gets shot lives if they are town and therefore it does make sense that you'd think that even if flush shoots you, that's still bad for wolves in this scenario
    This is why I wanted someone in the POE to get the gun because it clears out 2 people regardless of the shot outcome. But, yes, that is a fairly townie take on why Ran specifically believed flush was a poor option to get the gun from the wolves' POV

  33. ISO #3283
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3233)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#3226)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3217)

    if we lynch the people in our PoE and they are all flipping town, i will not just blindly keep following it without taking another look at the people we are clearing.
    How many must die before you will do this? One (hundred twelve) already has. And then another who was in the consensus PoE (imo at least, perhaps you differ on this?) died at night. That does not strike you as odd, if all scum are in the PoE? Yes, kill logic is ultimate WIFOM. But does it give you no pause whatsoever?
    For me if Psycho ends up shooting a townie AND we mislynch today I start reassessing. Flush wasn't in my POE at least because his worldview was aligning with mine and he didn't seem to be sheeping the consensus town. He started the day with the rabbit/para/112 POE.

    Personally I think that the seal's been broken on the Amy wagon with Psycho randing the gun the dominoes will start to fall on that wagon. It's easier for the wolves to keep everyone alive there to maximize the paranoia, but now they basically have to get me and Zack to tinfoil each other, and that just isn't happening for me.
    I think this is a great look for Mill Crab. Shows a process of thinking that came from actual consideration for the situation. It's also my mentality at the moment. If none of the main suspects of today turn up scum by D4, then I believe everyone needs to start with a blank slate.

  34. ISO #3284
    Soul Reader CatgirlMaple's Avatar
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    Any shot

  35. ISO #3285
    Soul Reader CatgirlMaple's Avatar
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    Looks like no?

  36. ISO #3286
    Soul Reader CatgirlMaple's Avatar
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    I see para has posts now, how are they

  37. ISO #3287
    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#3236)
    Quote Originally Posted by Dels (#3207)
    Quote Originally Posted by WaywardSon (#3205)
    So if I get shot, am I tree stump type role or just like nothing happens to me, but the shooter dies?
    Nothing happens to you, but the shooter dies
    So again I ask is it better to resolve me by lynch or by shooting me? Because by shooting me you lose an active town person.
    See, this kind of post feels like a townie that has realized how unimpactful and slanky he's been, and is trying to find what the best way to be useful is? Not sure where he follows up, but it seems like he's ready to offer himself up for the shot if he feels that's best for town.

    It could be a chance to mislead me and make me shoot non-scum and you still lose me, but I dunno. Despite my earlier opinions, I'm now having a lot of trouble finding WaywardSon as scum here.

    It helps iaafr brought up a relevant meta point about how his town games always feel very confident and clear-cut, like his bravado in voting Amy and 112 despite having little handle on the thread. Scum WWS was constantly portraying an image of self-doubt and paranoia.

  38. ISO #3288
    Soul Reader CatgirlMaple's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iaafr (#2983)
    like, most people who were present at eod were always gonna vote wws or amy, except para specifically
    The only lynches on the table d1 were Amy and WWS with a small side of 112.

    Me and flush weren't actually in danger, and a big cfd was more or less out of the cards.

  39. ISO #3289
    Automatic Game Mod Mafia Host's Avatar
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    Mountainous Desperado Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    2 Ranmilia iaafr (229), Chemist1422 (58)
    1 Chemist1422 CatgirlMaple (109)
    7 Not voting Psycho666Soldier (31), Ranmilia (53), Paratroopa (70), WaywardSon (30), Dels (157), Slimy Soab (155), Mill Crab (68)


    View Vote History

    End day at majority is enabled. With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to reach majority.

    Day 3 ends at 9:00 PM EDT on Monday, September 16th, 2019. There are 1568682060000 remaining.

    Posted at 0 days, 8 hours, 48 minutes, 59 seconds remaining.

  40. ISO #3290
    Soul Reader CatgirlMaple's Avatar
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    Ideally the shot wouldn't happen until I was able to be in the thread but I work for 3 more hours lol

  41. ISO #3291
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3290)
    Ideally the shot wouldn't happen until I was able to be in the thread but I work for 3 more hours lol
    Remind me again, in case you aren't here. Who are your top shot candidates in order?

  42. ISO #3292
    shooting wws worst case scenario- we finally have eod1 clarity and the wolves have to kill someone who is slanking

    best case- eod1 clarity and dead wolf

  43. ISO #3293
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon

  44. ISO #3294
    Quote Originally Posted by Mill Crab (#3250)
    Page 58

    questions for @Slimy Soab @Paratroopa


    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2853)
    para is still giving himself nowhere to turn or operate. like his reads have backed himself into a corner, and hes still trying to work in that corner instead of widen his poe. wolves don’t do this when they are at the bottom of the poe, it’s suicide

    meanwhile manti is ... not doing that and keeping his options open, like a wolf would be doing

    if ignore the flush nk i’d still think manti is a wolf
    Yeah idk. unless we're super wrong about like, you/me/dels/iaafr, it doesn't make a ton of sense for him as a wolf to keep the POE so narrow. Why don't you think manti would make the flush kill again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2855)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ranmilia (#2845)
    @Paratroopa I am sorry that you have not gotten the chance to participate very much and that we are in this situation. In the event that you are town, for the third and probably final day in a row, I ask of thee:

    Who is scum?
    I mean in a way manti kind of did me a favor because playing yesterday was going to be stressful, I shouldn't be busy like that again for the foreseeable future

    Don't think there's scum in Chem or WWS for a bunch of wagon-related reasons at eod1. Pretty sure Dels and Zack are town. I guess it's possible Dels is pocketing me, but he'd have to be playing an improbably good wolf game to have been as consistently town-POV as he's been, and Zack/Amy interactions remain unlikely. Manti is like 99% confidence a wolf and his partner would have to be iaafr, Ran, or MC. Possible that MC is with Manti trying to get a mislynch on me, haven't really looked into them as partners. Think iaafr is the most likely though since he's the only unflipped player on WWS. 112/iaafr both being town is super weird.
    I think, despite Ran now having manti as top town, they still don't push Manti up as a cw to Amy if that's the team. That's just such a dumb play imo and completely unnecessary.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#2862)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2736)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2733)
    various reasons, some of which I can't talk about

    I've been pretty busy today and spend like half of yesterday (irl) before the hammer playing pokemon with Jalandh

    The rest is covered by school/aforementioned reasons
    if you want a more personal answer it's varying levels of paralysis that I can't provide anything noteworthy to the discussion, thus making me less likely to post and getting me further behind
    This Chem post just felt super pure to me too - like I think it takes a ridiculous amount of self-awareness to be a frozen wolf and then admit to the thread that you are a frozen wolf

    Everything chem's doing is relying on the big brain play of getting dummy Para to defend him based on $#@! like this
    Ok but you ended up defending Amy because you didn't think her play made sense as a wolf? I guess what is the difference between these posts/chemist's actions that has you so confident that it's town and not that you're being duped again by another wolf?

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2870)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#2868)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2853)
    para is still giving himself nowhere to turn or operate. like his reads have backed himself into a corner, and hes still trying to work in that corner instead of widen his poe. wolves don’t do this when they are at the bottom of the poe, it’s suicide

    meanwhile manti is ... not doing that and keeping his options open, like a wolf would be doing

    if ignore the flush nk i’d still think manti is a wolf
    Yeah but I'm not dying today so I'm allowed to have my options open.
    para didn't die yesterday and didn't keep their options open then either

    he is committing himself to an extremely narrow POE that's going to be super hard for him to untangle and stay alive long-term with. He is only pushing you, so assuming you aren't w/w he is defending a wolfbro despite leaving himself pretty much no scapegoats to pivot to in the future and probably not having much chance at surviving very long. If he's a wolf with chemist and para flips red today, chemist is just done for. But he also likely needs chemist to die if he's a villager in order for his team to win so.... what is Paratroopa's agenda here, CatGirlMaple?

    on the other hand, you aren't committed to anything really. neither is chemist.
    Ok let's think about this. Say psycho shoots Manti and is a villager. We lynch Para and he flips red. 6 v 1 and a POE of 3 wins. We lynch Chemist next because that makes sense but he flips green. Going into that night is probably you/me/rabbit/dels/Ran/WWS. Ran and I are never wolves with Para so one of us dies. Para probably isn't with WWS because all the wolves would be bussing and I just don't see it happening. Dels I could see given how he's defended Para but he's conceded that he could be wrong and it's in such a villagery way that I still have a hard time scum reading him. Rabbit I just have a hard time seeing since it would be all 3 wolves on the WWS wagon, and it just didn't work out. I think there are posts like the Ted Talk post where it doesn't look like he was partnered with Amy. He's the only player that Para seems to be trying to pluck out of the core and drop into the POE. You I guess technically fit as a partner because you got so mad about us wanting to lynch Para yesterday. So the last two mislynches have to be, like, Dels/rabbit?

    God that just seems too difficult unless the last wolf is exactly you in a Para w chem v world. :/

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2881)
    i’ve turned into iaafr this phase it seems

    100% town: dr professor soab ?, paycho ?

    98.2% town: iaafr ?

    90% town: ? the crab ?, dels ?

    82.7% town: ranmilia ?, waywardson ?

    60% town: maple ?

    40% town: paratroopa ?

    27.61438% town: chemist ??

    i used a series of complex formulae to acquiesce these precise figures, using 75% town = rand as a baseline. these calculations assume the earth is a perfect sphere ? and air resistance is zero ?
    In a town!Para, town!WWS world, you think the last two are in ran/manti/chem and amy ended up being the only wolf on her own counterwagon? I personally would swap out Ran and put rabbit in that POE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2891)
    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#223)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#81)
    I'm tossing around ideas in my head about how many wolves are active rn

    I don't think it's more than 1 but that instant snap response to mill and the general mindmelds that have been going on have me thinking and I feel like if there is one my gut would say Dels, because the townclears could be taken as an attempt to act like the thread is pure rn

    yes I know I just told mill not to overthink
    Villagy of chemist here to look at the thread, see like three other people, and still go 'well I'm still gonna try to solve this anyway'
    why did he quote this but not mill crab’s posts that were before this?


    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2897)
    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#2881)
    i’ve turned into iaafr this phase it seems

    100% town: dr professor soab ?, paycho ?

    98.2% town: iaafr ?

    90% town: ? the crab ?, dels ?

    82.7% town: ranmilia ?, waywardson ?

    60% town: maple ?

    40% town: paratroopa ?

    27.61438% town: chemist ??

    i used a series of complex formulae to acquiesce these precise figures, using 75% town = rand as a baseline. these calculations assume the earth is a perfect sphere ? and air resistance is zero ?
    is it bad it took me like a minute to think of who the crab was


    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#2898)
    If there isn't a deepwolf I'm going to lolwolves endlessly

    lemme look into Mill deeper
    well this explains the ping
    killing flush does nothing to help manti when high-activity townread players like me, dels, etc were pretty likely to shoot him today (from his perspective n3 at least)

    it only makes sense if the team is manti/ran, but as you’ve said that world doesn’t make much sense

    i think mantis posts are quire wolfy but (a) stuff doesn’t add up if he’s a wolf, (b) i am historically bad at reading him because he has such an unusual/troll style

  45. ISO #3295
    Soul Reader CatgirlMaple's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3291)
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3290)
    Ideally the shot wouldn't happen until I was able to be in the thread but I work for 3 more hours lol
    Remind me again, in case you aren't here. Who are your top shot candidates in order?
    Dels para chemist are three slots I think dampen the wcs of a confirmed who is taken out of the poe that wolves will eventually kill. Para is an extraordinarily boring slot with boring posts. Dels is boring in a different way in that they put me to sleep. Finally chemist, he had that eod1 thing and helped kill a wolf but has been ultra lacking since. I think I could convince him to come play if it comes to it.

    Wws unless he seriously steps up his game I dont even think wolves kill him if he gets confirmed v. In a vaccum his slot should be v just cause basic ww mechanics but lol

    Zack and crab voted a wolf and are pretty well safe for now. Doesnt smell like a bus and they're both likely to get shot before lylo anyway.

    Iaafr is a slot that I dont think it's time to go after yet. He might die at night.

    Shooting me gives me no info

    Ran I see people are turning on. I haven't had a chance to give his slot a real good looking over yet, and if hes v thatd suck but if theres a v good case against him idk I could be wrong. I'd rather get him myself.

  46. ISO #3296
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon
    wws
    chemist
    manti

    i’ve already covered this so much i don’t want to type it all up again because there is nuance that’s hard to get across in a few words

    I think the team is wws/chemist. manti and ran are the next in my poe i guess but i don’t believe ran is wolfy at all (just flush kill looks poor) and i just explained my manti read to ?

  47. ISO #3297
    Soul Reader CatgirlMaple's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3296)
    Quote Originally Posted by Psycho666Soldier (#3293)
    Could I actually get everyone's Top 3 shots? You can change it later, but I want to start getting an idea where the thread is settling. Ideally you'd give some brief reasoning for each, even if it's just a few words.

    @CatgirlMaple
    @Chemist1422
    @Dels
    @iaafr
    @Mill Crab
    @Paratroopa
    @Ranmilia
    @Slimy Soab
    @WaywardSon
    wws
    chemist
    manti

    i’ve already covered this so much i don’t want to type it all up again because there is nuance that’s hard to get across in a few words

    I think the team is wws/chemist. manti and ran are the next in my poe i guess but i don’t believe ran is wolfy at all (just flush kill looks poor) and i just explained my manti read to ?
    I'd rather have three more phases of people trying to lynch me than to have the peek get wasted.

  48. ISO #3298
    Soul Reader CatgirlMaple's Avatar
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    Ftf and psycho being the two eliminated slots is kinda funny

  49. ISO #3299
    GOAT Tier WaywardSon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slimy Soab (#3292)
    shooting wws worst case scenario- we finally have eod1 clarity and the wolves have to kill someone who is slanking

    best case- eod1 clarity and dead wolf
    But you lose a productive town in Pyscho. But I am down with whatever the choice is.

  50. ISO #3300
    Quote Originally Posted by CatgirlMaple (#3298)
    Ftf and psycho being the two eliminated slots is kinda funny
    ?

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The Lawyer is a mafia-aligned role who may target a fellow mafia-aligned player each night and make them view as town if investigated by a Cop ability.