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Thread: #22: Stopping the Juggernaut (by GeneralHankerchief)

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    seeker of the second outlet Voxxicus's Avatar Moderator
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    #22: Stopping the Juggernaut (by GeneralHankerchief)

    Article #22: Stopping the Juggernaut
    - written by GeneralHankerchief

    Note: This article is primarily geared towards classic-sized games with 17 players or so. Nevertheless, some of its principles can apply to mashes.

    It is far easier for a mafia team to come back from a precarious situation numbers-wise in any given game than it is for a town to do so. Have a player well-distanced, kill a glue guy or two keeping the town from imploding, and with a little luck and effort a lone wolf can go deep and deliver the win for their team despite being down in numbers early. This is one of the inherent advantages of wolfing.

    This is not the case for the town if they go down early. In the case of, say, starting the game off with two consecutive mislynches, they find that their greatest advantage - numbers - is reduced. A proportionally greater percentage of wolf voices in the thread means that there's a higher chance than ever of being misled. With enough mislynches, the town's margin for error diminishes and the entire situation can snowball into being embarrassingly swept. Unlike with the mafia, the town cannot necessarily rely on good night actions to close this gap. Instead, their work will have to be done in the thread.

    This article deals with how to bring a town back from the brink with a specific focus on identifying and countering the effects of powerwolfing.

    Some definitions

    What is powerwolfing? Thingyman's article The Art of Power Wolfing is an excellent guide on what it is and what it accomplishes. Similarly, Mantichora's Practical Guide to Open Wolfing touches on many of the same points. In essence, powerwolfing is a strategy that relies on thread control and coordination to push mislynches through with comparatively less thought to bussing. It is an active approach designed to take control of the game and dictate which lynches are and are not acceptable - more active than a "standard" wolf game where players mostly lie back and concentrate on looking villagery moreso than trying to dictate matters themselves.

    You will need to keep this definition and its tenets in mind during unfavorable gamestates, as identifying a powerwolf game in progress is absolutely critical to stopping it from happening.

    This article is primarily concerned with gamestates where the town has:
    a) mislynched at least twice in a row, and
    b) is down by two or more lynches

    If you lynched two wolves in a row to start the game and then followed it up with two villagers in a row, yeah, your morale isn't going to be the best but the gamestate is still reasonably favorable. You're losing bodies, but the wolves are hurting too and the game could go a number of ways. This article is more concerned with the more desperate situations, such as Day 3 after two consecutive mislynches, or Day 5 with only one dead wolf and LYLO fast approaching. These are the situations where you need to act quickly if you want any chance of salvaging the gamestate. But before you do act, you need to do something that probably runs against the very essence of your training and experience as a mafia player, and that's to stop.

    Identifying the situation and your place in it

    It's Start of Day 3. Both EODs so far have ended in disaster. The night kills have been expectedly damaging. The vig may or may not have misfired and contributed to the carnage. And you are still alive. It may be your first impulse to dive in and start sorting through the previous EOD immediately and chat with whoever else is around and try to make sense of what's happening. By all means, you can certainly do this to some extent. But you need to be devoting the bulk of your thoughts to the overall gamestate as well as your position in it.

    To put it more simply, if you're alive in this situation, it's for a reason. While every individual game situation is obviously unique to some extent, the bottom line is that the wolves have left you alive because they deem it advantageous to their win condition. In other words, they like the gamestate the way it is with you a part of it. It's your job to figure out why.

    If you're constantly under suspicion and were the counterwagon in an EOD or two, then this "why" is fairly easy to figure out: you're a designated mislynch. No further introspection required. However, you need to be aware of your position in the gamestate and work within it. You know that you're a designated mislynch. Take a look and examine how people have treated your slot specifically. Have they genuinely and strongly pushed for your death? Have their reads on you evolved at all? Have they kind of treated you with kid gloves? Being in this situation can sometimes feel like you're drowning, but recentering yourself and focusing on a single aspect of the game can prove useful for both yourself and others in the game as they try to get a read on you.

    Alternatively, if you're regarded as consensus town or close to it and still alive in this situation, this is a problem. This means that despite you not really being on the table for the lynch, the wolves have actively chosen to leave you alive in favor of killing other targets. Medic dodges, PR hunts, and SPKs aimed elsewhere can explain a night or two of survival, but the longer you live despite your status, the harder it is to justify your own continued existence without some serious self-reflection. There is an extremely high chance that one or more of your reads, perhaps even one of your core reads in either direction, is very wrong. This doesn't necessarily mean that you have to flip your entire reads list upside down, but if it was close to being accurate, the wolves would have found a way to kill you.

    If your position in the thread is somewhere in between these two poles - i.e. you're in the general outer POE or something - then it becomes a little harder to self-evaluate simply because there are a number of reasons why the mafia could have left you alive. In cases like this, it's still worth your time to stop, take a breath, and evaluate your reads as well as other people's treatment of your slot, as this is simply good town play regardless of the gamestate.

    The reason it's necessary to do all of this is because powerwolf games, once a certain threshold has been reached, are all about momentum and the wolves maintaining it to secure their victory. Simply going with the flow means that you're caught up in that terrible momentum and remain part of the problem. The first part of the solution requires nothing more than you centering yourself and understanding that this is what the wolves are trying to accomplish.

    Once you have taken the step to focus examine the gamestate as it revolves around your slot, your next task is to do the same but with the other players.

    The roles that others play

    Most townies, whether they're able to express it or not, have an innate sense of how a game is going horribly wrong (if so) and the directions they should start looking in if they're to reverse the tide. Many times though, due to that terrible momentum as well as mob mentality (which may or may not be initiated by wolves), they struggle to divert from their course of destruction in the name of "resolving slots" or "information" or something similar. Once you have figured out your own role in this unfavorable gamestate, your next step is to do the same with those around you.

    All successful powerwolf games are different, but they all carry the same themes. If you can figure out these patterns and apply them to your own reads in this game, there's a reasonable chance of being able to turn the game around. I would go as far as to say that figuring out individual roles in the gamestate, at this stage, is even more important than making typical reads based off tone or associatives. Not all of these archetypes appear in every game where the town goes down by a lot early, but at least a few will.

    - Firstly, we have the player quietly in the POE but isn't really pushed. What makes this archetype so important is that it has a high chance of flipping wolf. Unless you're facing an incredibly strong and coordinated team, there's probably going to be at least one wolf player who just isn't as able as the rest of their team to influence the gamestate for whatever reason. Examples of this player archetype can be found in the two most recent Champs Finales as of this writing: DaBackpack in Season 6 (before he fake claimed), and Secondhand Revenant in Season 5 (before he subbed out). Both players were part of strong mafia teams that were successful at pushing through mislynches, but due to RL circumstances, neither was able to keep up with the posting and found themselves dropping in the POE as a result. Despite being consensus "probably just a wolf?" per the thread, they were mostly briefly touched on in reads lists and comments and then ignored in favor of more pressing targets. If a player looks like this in a powerwolf game and is consensus wolfread without ever really being seriously pushed, this player could be the key to blowing the game wide open.

    - Secondly, there's the player who realizes what's happening and is trying to stop it. Again, I will turn to the two most recent Champs Finales for ease of reference: Paratroopa in s5 and Macdougall in s6 both realized what was happening and did their best to reverse the tide. A lot of townies have an inner radar for this thing and their suspicions will come out whether it's conscious or not. If you can find the person or persons who are demonstrating this awareness, it can be a big help to you solving the game - especially if they're in the POE. They might not necessarily be correct, but they're probably town, and that matters just as much. One thing to watch out for though is fake gamestate awareness from wolves looking to take advantage of this, perhaps especially after this article comes out. It will be your job to sort the truly concerned from those putting on an act. One step to doing so is contrasting a person's words with their actions.

    - Thirdly, there's the player who's actively trying to solve not necessarily in line with the status quo but is mostly ignored. This player archetype in an unfavorable gamestate has some overlap with the one directly above it, which makes sense as both are usually town. This player's reads might be more correct than those of their louder counterparts, but for whatever reason they're not listened to. Take a look at this player when they deliver their reads and try to chart out the reactions and responses to said reads. Are they briefly discussed before the line of conversation fizzles out in favor of more familiar subjects? This might be something worth exploring and following through on. The one caveat to this is that the player has less of a chance of being town than the above archetype, because there's always the danger that the player could be a wolf simply looking to set up a mislynch down the line once other options have been exhausted, or even a villager unknowingly pushing a mislynch that the wolves are leaving alive for the same reason. As always, context is king.

    - A player you really need to be on the watch for is the player who looks to maintain the status quo. This desire can be found through a number of sources: their votes, their reads progressions or lack thereof, their treatment of slots, their hesitation to seriously push the first listed player archetype here, their insistence that "the POE is good, we just misfired a couple of times," etc. Understand that the situation you're in and the current status quo is unfavorable for your alignment and that wolves, at this stage in the game, want to maintain it. At its very core, this is what you need to be able to realize and identify. Act accordingly once and if you've found someone that fits this description.

    - Probably the player archetype most difficult to categorize in these gamestates is the player currently at the bottom of the POE, because their reason for being there is so game-specific. Who is pushing the slot? Have they been saved in the past, and if so, by who? Could it be a wolf bailed out by their team? A villager being kept around by the wolfteam to be lynchbait and to focus the town's attentions away from what truly matters? There is no one all-purpose answer here. However, it's a good bet that the bulk of the players' attention will be focused around this player and this slot. It might be more worth your time to try to solve around the slot rather than adding your own voice to the mix on this specific matter.

    Not every game with this specific gamestate will have a player or players that fit every above archetype, and obviously you will have players that do not meet any of these qualifications. The above categories are merely a handy reference guide for you to use to better focus your mind on the overall gamestate and how everyone fits into it as opposed to simply reading into individual posts for wolfiness or townieness. This will be of more use to you anyway.

    Once you've fully taken a step back and examined the bigger picture, it's time to get back in there and do the dirty work of turning the game around.

    Fighting back

    Your greatest foe at this stage of the game is momentum. Picture the mafia team as a group of people who started rolling a giant boulder down a hill that's set to crush your village. It's a lot easier to stop that boulder before it's really picked up steam than when it's halfway down the hill and still gaining speed, but you're past that now. The boulder is still stoppable, but you need to marshal the entire village to do so. Luckily, there are ways to accomplish this.

    Many times in the aftermath of a mislynch, villagers lament that a player "just looked so villagery" at the end or at some portion of the dayphase, even if they said villagers were part of the mislynch. These facts, while appearing to contrast on the surface, aren't necessarily opposed to each other. Momentum is usually at fault - players may feel compelled to follow through with the lynch anyway in the name of resolving the slot, or a previous EOD, or because there are no alternatives, or simply because otherwise the thread will spend another full gameday talking about that player tomorrow if they don't take care of this Right Now.

    Why do these players who get mislynched "look so villagery" in the first place? It's typically because that in their moments of final struggle, they have a better concept of the gamestate than any other town player: this lynch is about to go poorly, and the town isn't in as good of a position as it thinks it is. Assuming said player keeps posting, this absolute truth will usually express itself in a number of ways: tone, conviction, etc., in ways that are nearly impossible for wolves to mimic. Many times, other villagers are able to partially pick up on these signals, but ignore them until it's far too late.

    It is your job as a townie in an unfavorable gamestate to pick up these signals from other players and broadcast them yourselves whenever possible. All that introspection you've hopefully done about the gamestate, your own slot's treatment, and other players that I've outlined above? Your next step is to share your work with the other players. Take back the lines of discussion from the wolves. They have no desire to reexamine and legitimately reevaluate the lay of the land. The current gamestate suits them just fine! What they want to do is continue to push individual villagers and bring the game home. You need to make the conversation beyond that.

    Hammer home the bigger picture as much as you can and try not to get distracted by specifics. Your goal is to reshape the conversation around how you perceive things to be going and call for a full reevaluation of reads that are less based around traditional methods such as tone and more on what I talked about above.

    Find out who else is feeling what you're feeling. Do what you can to separate those who truly believe it from those who are merely paying lip service. Work together with people and talk about the player archetypes above and what they potentially signify in the specific context of the game they're in. Emphasis on working together, because town cohesion becomes supremely important in unfavorable gamestates. And for the love of Thingyman, lynch the player who's in everybody's POE but nobody has really seriously pushed. That dude is probably just a wolf.

    In terms of lynching, you don't need to go after a specific target, nor should you necessarily try to bring down the "alpha wolf". Beggars can't be choosy, and if you're reading this article during an ongoing game looking for guidance, chances are good that you're a beggar. Just try to bag one wolf, any wolf. Get people talking about targets and go from there. The downside of powerwolfing for the mafia team is that if it fails, it can usually lead to a chain of correct lynches. If you're town, just get one and then go from there. Everybody does better solving after a redflip anyway.

    Cliffs:

    • It's harder for town to come back from an unfavorable gamestate than it is the mafia, but it's possible with the right skills and more importantly mindset.
    • In an unfavorable gamestate, being able to conceptualize the bigger picture and people's overall roles in them is more important than the accuracy of individual reads.
    • In a potential powerwolfing situation, there stands a good chance of certain player archetypes being filled. Understand these archetypes, how they come about, and the likelihood that a player in a certain archetype is a certain alignment, and you're on your way to turning the game around.
    • Most town players have an inner radar that the game is going horribly wrong that they may or may not consciously express. Your first step to engineering a town comeback is to make big-picture discussion the forefront so you can better find other town players who are having similar thoughts to you and work from there.

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    Mantichora's Avatar Game Manager
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    Stopping the Juggernaut: or, how I learned to make hero shots and save the game.

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    Thread Analyst The Juggernaut's Avatar
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    The Juggernaut cannot be stopped!




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    ༼ つ ;-; ༽つ give smith another day mhsmith0's Avatar Game Manager
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    More seriously tho, good article and I basically agree w this. Thanks gh!
    Life is simply unfair... don't you think?
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    Low Hanging Fruit LordQuas's Avatar Game Manager
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    it feels weird seeing voxx's MU avatar for a change
    :wiwe

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    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Great article GH.

    I'm a big proponent of archtyping, both for wolves and for villagers. Looking at the role someone's playing in the game combined with the archtype of player they are, free from any individual quirk or single action, can be a great clarifying tool.

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    Low Hanging Fruit LordQuas's Avatar Game Manager
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    I only just now realize this was written by gh and not voxx
    :wiwe

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    five people have died Apoc's Avatar Game Manager
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    Relate this to the recent anon game

    While it's fresh in minds

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    Season 5 Champion GeneralHankerchief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Apoc (#8)
    Relate this to the recent anon game

    While it's fresh in minds
    I had 95% of this written before the recent anon mash was played, but sure, let's give it a shot as it's a good example of how some of the principles listed above apply!

    As a refresher, or for those unaware, Apoc is referring to the recent Halloween Mash, a game played on anonymous accounts that ended on N4 with a mafia victory. The wolves were pretty much in control from the word go and while it wasn't a full-on powerwolfing situation, it fit well enough to suit our purposes here.

    I was in the unique position of being specially recruited to spectate the game, along with Voxxicus and Newcomb. Each night phase (and, after a time, on some dayphases as well) we would collectively be able to send messages, limited to 15 words, that would be received by certain players of both alignments. There was no expectation that we'd have to give reads or help solve the game with these messages, as we weren't players... but when you lock me/Voxx/Newcomb in a room together with a mafia game in progress, naturally we're gonna try to solve and townside.

    On N3, one of the players in the game decided to activate an ability that allowed one of the three of us to take the account over for the next dayphase and actually play. It was decided that I would be the one to enter in, and the situation on the ground was such that the wolves were extremely close to reaching parity. The ratio at that point was something like 11:9. So this was a pretty good testing ground to put some of the article's principles in action.

    For the first part of the article's suggestions above, namely the "identifying your own role" bit, I didn't need to really do anything as my takeover of the account had rendered me unlynchable for the day and the town pretty much collectively decided early on that they didn't have any better ideas than to follow me anyway. So I didn't need to overcome that particular hurdle and instead was able to get straight to the part of identifying the other player archetypes.

    I hadn't been religiously following the game before my "sub" in, but some ISOing on N2 pointed me to Fanciful Fairy (SmartBomb) as a player who had made some pretty wolfy posts. Newcomb/Voxx/myself sent messages on N2, D3, and N3 saying as much, and while this partly caused Fairy to get pressure, his wagon had never quite taken off. Confirmation bias was well in play, but this absolutely felt to me like a hit on the classic "player in the POE but never seriously pushed" archetype and I figured there was a good chance of that player being a wolf.

    Similarly, some of Newcomb's ISOing on N3 pointed to Mumbling Mummy (vanity.) as another likely wolf. We put the two together and realized that there was a distinct pattern of Mummy blowing off those who wanted to pressure Fairy despite acknowledging that there was really nothing redeeming in Fairy's iso. The raw posts can be found in the below spoiler:

    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5507)
    Quote Originally Posted by Stupendous Student (#5503)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5501)
    banana
    monkey
    ringmaster
    pharaoh

    seems decent for a primitive shots list
    I'd add Fairy (based on my own read more than the spirits by the way), but this one has my thumbs up I guess
    yeah i guess so based on the spirit message but uh

    i can't get myself to trust it yet
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5532)
    your case on fairy seems kinda weaksauce tbh student

    it's basically "yeah good thoughts overall but nothing stemmed from one post they made" and then them just voting and ita'ing a bunch of villagers

    i don't get the point you're making on the "i'm allergic to something in soldier's iso" thing. voting and ita'ing a bunch of villagers is wolfy on the surface but it like... means basically nothing. why is fairy voting and ita'ing a bunch of villagers wolfy?

    the fact that you're so convinced on it perplexes me
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5534)
    i'm not going oppose ita shots on fairy

    i just think this case is very weak
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5547)
    Quote Originally Posted by Stupendous Student (#5537)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5532)
    your case on fairy seems kinda weaksauce tbh student

    it's basically "yeah good thoughts overall but nothing stemmed from one post they made" and then them just voting and ita'ing a bunch of villagers

    i don't get the point you're making on the "i'm allergic to something in soldier's iso" thing. voting and ita'ing a bunch of villagers is wolfy on the surface but it like... means basically nothing. why is fairy voting and ita'ing a bunch of villagers wolfy?

    the fact that you're so convinced on it perplexes me
    Look, I'm bad at explaining things. Let me try and collect things in a more sensible format.
    i await it!

    fairy's iso doesn't hold up overall now. but i absolutely wouldn't ita them over banana, ringmaster, or pharaoh
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5699)
    Quote Originally Posted by Mobile Mouse (#5698)
    Quote Originally Posted by Bumbling Bee (#5691)
    Any list that is 5 or less people?

    I hate big lists.
    monkey
    ringmaster
    pharaoh
    fairy
    deer
    seal of approval on this
    Mummy gives a seal of approval to a shots list with Fairy on it, but spends the entire time focusing elsewhere:

    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5761)
    ringmaster and pharaoh need to be disposed of from the werewolf wagon

    lemme look at the other names real quick...
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5771)
    i don't want pirate dead... yet

    yeah bad shot on cheerleader and voted werewolf but they're sorta villagery regardless!
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5819)
    Quote Originally Posted by Stupendous Student (#5817)
    hey if you're looking for no depth of thought, go kill Fairy
    yes i'm getting desperate now
    but i'm actually right this time, I swear
    i understand you're tunneled but

    i want pharaoh and ringmaster dead first
    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbling Mummy (#5866)
    Quote Originally Posted by Big-hearted Burglar (#5863)
    Not gonna be around for ITA 2. Who's the shot?
    imo the best shots atm are on pharaoh or ringmaster

    for any other spicy shots... apparently foxy is slightly spicy. princess doesn't actually ping as villagery atm


    This pattern made it pretty clear that Mummy was actively seeking to preserve the pro-wolf status quo while at the same time reinforcing the initial read on Fairy that their wagon was actively being prevented from becoming truly threatening - and in a wolfy way, too. This led me to believe that Fairy was a strong wolf role considering the defense of someone who really had not been posting well (sorry sb).

    The tl;dr of all this is that we were able to cobble together a lynch on Fairy, who was the strongest wolf role in the game. Town then proceeded to lose on N4 due to it being 11:9 at Start of Day 4 and the perfect storm of night actions not coming to pass.

    ---

    I'm leaving out other archetypes (and again, not every archetype in the article will happen in every powerwolf gamestate!), but this serves as a function of a) my unique entry into the game and how it IMMEDIATELY warped around me due to these circumstances, and b) the 11:9 ratio, which I'd call not so much an "unfavorable" gamestate as "the wolves running out the clock".

    Still though, it serves as a good example. Not everybody has the luxury of reading the game from on high before entering in, but if you can manage it, it can be useful!
    Lenny - Today at 10:08 AM
    Atpg sometimes the paragraphs you write are pretty good


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    Stopping the Juggernaut (how to fight back against powerwolfing/bad situations as town)
    The Ten Worst Miseliminations in Champs History and How to Avoid Them (posted before Season 7/2019, will not be updated further)

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    Season 5 Champion GeneralHankerchief's Avatar
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    oh right, I suppose I need the mandatory award for writing this

    @ any friendly mod
    Last edited by GeneralHankerchief; November 6th, 2019 at 04:04 PM.
    Lenny - Today at 10:08 AM
    Atpg sometimes the paragraphs you write are pretty good


    $200 - mashes (base rate)
    $150 - mashes with themes I enjoy
    $300-$500 - mashes with themes I don't enjoy
    $300 - invitationals or near-invitationals
    $100 - non-invitational mountainous or close offshoot (mountainous arson, etc)
    $150 - sub-in fee, D1-SOD3
    $100 - sub-in fee, SOD3 or later
    Inquire by DM - offsite game on the Org
    $500 minimum - offsite games elsewhere, negotiable by PM

    All prices in USD, rates subject to change.
    Looking to waste an afternoon? Vamos Cartagena - Football Manager 2018 AAR (complete!)
    The sequel to the above: An American Manager in America (complete!)
    The conclusion to the epic trilogy: An American Manager in San Marino (on hiatus)
    Stopping the Juggernaut (how to fight back against powerwolfing/bad situations as town)
    The Ten Worst Miseliminations in Champs History and How to Avoid Them (posted before Season 7/2019, will not be updated further)

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    Soul Reader Montmorency's Avatar
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    In an archetype analysis, how do you distinguish between mafia coasting on status quo, and a lazy or assured townie?


    https://i.imgur.com/cD7vqkg.jpg

    Quote Originally Posted by El-Ahrairah
    Snatz is a very quiet and reserved individual, and he's not around very much. He's a bit of a loose cannon: I never know what he's going to do from one moment to the next.
    Quote Originally Posted by snatz (#2497)
    I am not wolf since rabbit cant catch wolf And you are rabbit Who caught me So I am not wolf
    Quote Originally Posted by CutePanda (#3064)
    Truth is stranger than fiction , that should be the thing you must speak throughout the year if a lynch on me fruitifies

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    GOAT Tier FTFlush's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerneas (#2818)
    okay starting from the top

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    Season 5 Champion GeneralHankerchief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency (#11)
    In an archetype analysis, how do you distinguish between mafia coasting on status quo, and a lazy or assured townie?
    Obvious caveat: All games are unique, and each player has their own individual personality. This is not a one-size fits all answer. Etc etc.

    In general, I usually find a good route to determine which is which is to directly engage the "status quo preserver" about the player you think they might be protecting (or about anyone, specifically). A lot of times the status quo player is going to be more evasive as mafia than they would be if just a lazy townie. Basically, don't be afraid to shine the spotlight on them and make them accountable for their actions.

    An example of this was D3 of the Season 5 finale. In that game, I was mafia and was asked twice, point-blank, during the phase about one of my partners who was dropping in the POE and what I specifically thought of him. We were pretty closely tied together at that point and didn't really have any backup plan in case my partner got lynched, so bussing at that stage was out of the question.

    The first time I was grilled about my partner, I was pretty evasive and kind of hemmed and hawed, which didn't satisfy my interrogator and he pressed me to see things his way until I eventually pleaded I had to go to sleep for the night (not a lie, and I had announced my limited time beforehand so there was cover). The next morning, he resumed the line of questioning and I eventually had to fumble around with a lame "I believe [my partner] believes what he's saying" response which wasn't exactly inspiring. The conclusion of this story is that my interrogator thought that the both of us were wolves and came damn close to getting my partner lynched that dayphase.

    If I was a lazy/assured townie or something, I don't think I would have danced around it as much. After a certain point I was barely trying to argue against him, instead just trying to get out of the immedate conversation with some semblance of credibility intact. If I was town, I wouldn't have known that my interrogator was absolutely correct and so would have just bluntly said he was wrong, or kept trying to win the argument, or something, instead of trying to wriggle out of it. Obviously, everyone's individual skill level with this is different, but I personally find it very hard to outright lie and argue against somebody who you know is absolutely correct and very convinced of such. I suspect that I'm not alone in this.

    In other words, look around to see how they approach the issue in question, paying close attention to sincerity or evasiveness.
    Lenny - Today at 10:08 AM
    Atpg sometimes the paragraphs you write are pretty good


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  14. ISO #14
    GOAT Tier LanMisa's Avatar
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    So, TLDR: To stop the juggernaut, sub in GH or Newcomb into a scum read town slot.

  15. ISO #15
    Wielder of the Triforce Wisdom's Avatar
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    I'm a bit late to the party here (I even played the Anon mash but I was still new to forums and had no idea what I was doing), but thank you for this! I think this spoke very close to me due to being familiar to the mindset that I have evolved from playing flipless IRL (As in - Why isn't the game over?). But recognizing the late gamestate and knowing how to move forwards are two entirely different things.

    A lot of the time I just find myself being screwed, I may know who the wolves are and why, but I can't break the momentum leading into town losing. In some other times I can just admit that wolves have the upper hand but don't know why or who. I'll try to play some games with this and mind and see if I can get better at these skills, looking for archetypes is probably the key here.

    Is there an article about keeping notes? I'm still quite unfamiliar with it since it isn't allowed in my home forum, but I think keeping notes could very well be part of organizing information and look for archetypes.

    @GeneralHankerchief do you tend to keep notes when you're playing (as either alignment) or do you just sort the most important information and keep it in your head?
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  16. ISO #16
    Season 5 Champion GeneralHankerchief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wisdom (#15)
    Is there an article about keeping notes? I'm still quite unfamiliar with it since it isn't allowed in my home forum, but I think keeping notes could very well be part of organizing information and look for archetypes.

    @GeneralHankerchief do you tend to keep notes when you're playing (as either alignment) or do you just sort the most important information and keep it in your head?
    I know MU has a notepad/bookmark feature, but I personally don't use them aside from bookmarking funny posts that I enjoy going back to. For the most part I keep everything in my head, which has the added benefit of allowing me to think out loud in the thread and looking villagery for it. Just the way I work mentally, but I certainly don't begrudge anyone who does take actual notes!

    That's a good idea for an article though - I'm just not the person to write it.
    Last edited by GeneralHankerchief; June 22nd, 2021 at 10:27 PM.
    Lenny - Today at 10:08 AM
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  17. ISO #17
    Wielder of the Triforce Wisdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief (#16)
    Quote Originally Posted by Wisdom (#15)
    Is there an article about keeping notes? I'm still quite unfamiliar with it since it isn't allowed in my home forum, but I think keeping notes could very well be part of organizing information and look for archetypes.

    @GeneralHankerchief do you tend to keep notes when you're playing (as either alignment) or do you just sort the most important information and keep it in your head?
    I know MU has a notepad/bookmark feature, but I personally don't use them aside from bookmarking funny posts that I enjoy going back to. For the most part I keep everything in my head, which has the added benefit of allowing me to think out loud in the thread and looking villagery for it. Just the way I work mentally, but I certainly don't begrudge anyone who does take actual notes!

    That's a good idea for an article though - I'm just not the person to write it.
    Yeah, the first drawback to working with notes that I see is that you keep information from thread/others. But I've seen it used at times to minimize information overload and it can be used to see statistics, as in post count changes over days, amount of interactions between player and a vote history summary.

    I think there's more to work with here but I'm not experienced enough of taking notes yet to write my own article.
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  18. ISO #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency (#11)
    In an archetype analysis, how do you distinguish between mafia coasting on status quo, and a lazy or assured townie?
    I'll try to answer this question, but to do so I'll need to start by making some assumptions about what type of game state we're operating in. Let's talk about a situation where there's a player who has been vocal and active in pushing several incorrect eliminations and this does not cause them to step back or do a lot of meaningful reevaluation.

    I think most people would agree that usually a villager in that position will lose confidence and display this in some obvious ways. What would cause a villager to maintain their confidence and continue trying to be the thread captain? At the risk of being tautological, I'd say that a person would need to have high levels of innate confidence in their own abilities in order to maintain confidence after being proven wrong several times. This person will probably show signs of having a big ego, and their language and manner of speaking will show high degrees of conviction. When I've seen villagers like this, they've often been very self-centered and they seemed to enjoy exerting their dominance over others. It could be that they see changing course as admitting weakness and guaranteeing embarrassment whereas staying on course still allows them a chance of having been mostly correct. You'll see indicators of this player's personality throughout the game and probably in their previous games as well.

    It's difficult for wolves to behave that way even if they are the type of player who would play that way as a villager. The natural tendency for a wolf is to only be wrong as little as necessary and to make it look like their mistakes are all very understandable. They're not going to expend additional effort that in hindsight will draw more attention to how wrong they were and how much responsibility they bore for their pro-wolf actions. They will tend to be the ones who do not stand out very much.

    You can also look at the specific factors causing a player to believe in the status quo. Is it because they have a lot of confidence in who the wolves are? Is it because they have a lot of confidence in who the villagers are? Look at when they developed those reads and what was going on at the time. Were they following the status quo, or were they the creators of the status quo? Using all of the information currently available, do their previous actions look like the easiest path to victory for a wolf? Are there behaviors or actions which don't seem to serve any purpose as a wolf? This can help you narrow down the plausible narratives that would explain a player's gameplay.

    And it's not necessary to solve the strongest players first. Build a coalition of players who are unhappy with the status quo (which would be a lot of villagers who are in the POE), vote off someone that's done nothing villagery who no one is willing to actively defend, and then take things from there. Going off script will always generate a lot of good information regardless of outcome.

    @Montmorency

  19. ISO #19
    Soul Reader Alison's Avatar
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    I'd say the #1 most common reason for a villager to maintain confidence in their solve even after a bunch of discouraging green flips, other than just naturally having a big ego, is if they're stuck on a particular pattern, theory, or algorithm that they feel compelled to follow. Sometimes it's policy ("exe all lowposters, even if the last three lowposter exes were misses"), sometimes it's sheeping another player ("X is the best player ever, and they said all the wolves were in this group of six. The first half of that group were villas, so that must mean the mafia are all in the second half. Keep going!"), and sometimes it's just a line or idea that they keep going back to ("We can't allow Y to endgame no matter what. We have to resolve them today, even if they were in the POE the past few days and that POE has been largely wrong").

    The common theme between all these cases is that the villager feels stuck or coerced into following a certain line of play, and that's what's causing them to stay on course despite the current path proving unproductive so far.
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