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Thread: #23: The Ten Worst Mislynches in Champs History and How to Avoid Them (by GeneralHankerchief)

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    Special Agent tbh Boquise's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paratroopa (#7)
    Feels good to be in two of the top 5 games and have nothing to do with the bad mislynch
    I am in two games of the top three and have involvement in both...

    At least I was a wolf in g11
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    Special Agent tbh Boquise's Avatar Moderator
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    Might be because of my own bias but the D1 lynch of Akira in S5G8 felt like a less atrocious copy of Sooh's lynch
    Reeee-ing into the void and flailing around like a magikarp since 2013

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    I’m laughing but I’m so sorry Robb i still feel guilty but the fact that GH himself was like “only ~3% of the day phase happened” is killing me it felt like so much longer

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    This list definitely is in the Top Ten list of "Top Ten lists of all time".

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    I am very surprised S6 finale is not on this list for the SpinyCreature lynch.

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    Thank you for this and neighboring topics, I'm starting to understand the highlights as a novice.

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    Season 5 Champion GeneralHankerchief's Avatar
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    Hi all,

    First of all, sincere thanks and appreciation to everyone who read and commented on the article. I was a little worried that the balance I tried to strike between providing entertainment and still making it instructive tilted too far in one direction or the other, and it appears that this was for the most part avoided. I'm very glad of that.

    With this year's round of Champs qualifiers now fully completed and thus there being no currently active Champs games, I want to make it clear that I will not be further updating this article, at least not any time in the foreseeable future.

    Don't super want to delve into the "why" of this, but the short version is that while I'd had this article's concept in my head for years, the only reason I went ahead and finally pulled the trigger on writing it was because I figured out a way to give it an educational element: the "how to avoid it" part. Otherwise, it would simply have been too mean-spirited and not in the vein of what Mafia University articles should be. Doing a yearly update with the freshest and most hand-wringing Champs eliminations of the season, even if the update is dropped in the following season's leadup period when everybody's had some months to cool off and reflect, would tilt the balance too far back in the direction of it being mean-spirited. That is the opposite of what I want.

    Furthermore, while I can't fully control the discourse in this thread, I ask that you refrain from circumventing this decision by discussing where the placements of [X person's elimination] would be in a hypothetical new list.

    Thanks again for reading.
    Last edited by GeneralHankerchief; June 30th, 2020 at 03:17 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief (#57)
    Hi all,

    First of all, sincere thanks and appreciation to everyone who read and commented on the article. I was a little worried that the balance I tried to strike between providing entertainment and still making it instructive tilted too far in one direction or the other, and it appears that this was for the most part avoided. I'm very glad of that.

    With this year's round of Champs qualifiers now fully completed and thus there being no currently active Champs games, I want to make it clear that I will not be further updating this article, at least not any time in the foreseeable future.

    Don't super want to delve into the "why" of this, but the short version is that while I'd had this article's concept in my head for years, the only reason I went ahead and finally pulled the trigger on writing it was because I figured out a way to give it an educational element: the "how to avoid it" part. Otherwise, it would simply have been too mean-spirited and not in the vein of what Mafia University articles should be. Doing a yearly update with the freshest and most hand-wringing Champs eliminations of the season, even if the update is dropped in the following season's leadup period when everybody's had some months to cool off and reflect, would tilt the balance too far back in the direction of it being mean-spirited. That is the opposite of what I want.

    Furthermore, while I can't fully control the discourse in this thread, I ask that you refrain from circumventing this decision by discussing where the placements of [X person's elimination] would be in a hypothetical new list.

    Thanks again for reading.
    GH sparing us the Eevee mislynch write-up
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#233)
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    1. Phighter's $#@!ing with you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief (#57)
    I figured out a way to give it an educational element: the "how to avoid it" part.
    You fell short in this in your analysis of the S6G4 lynches: which is clear because you added them separately, even though they happened for the same reason; a similar process played out in Marblelympics with the D7 vote.

    Most of the lynches on this list happened because someone made a rash decision or didn't think things through properly. Not so in S6G4: you wrote yourself that we were heavily engaged in evaluating and re-evaluating. The core point here is that this analysis left us with no PoE: everyone was clear based off reasonable assumptions. Your "lesson learned" for the tartina lynch falls flat:
    I think the proper route, when in lategame, is to triage the thread and solve based off set assumptions that you strongly believe to be correct.
    If these assumptions misclear a wolf, you will be left with no PoE and only "town" to eliminate. This is the same thing that just played out in Marblelympics with a completely different set of players, most of whom are much more experienced than those driving the wagons in S6G4. If your assumptions leave you with no wolf, you need to question these assumptions. You write that these were "bad" lynches because obviously the wrong assumptions were questioned, but for a "lesson learned" from your #1 mislynch, I'd expect a lesson on how to pick the right assumption to throw overboard. And as we discussed in postgame, and as I mention in P#3 here, that ballast included a town-claimed tracker result.

    "tinfoil has its place, but keep it there" is impossible advice. If we don't question our strongly held assumptions, we can't find a wolf in that situation. Everyone is clear if we don't "tinfoil". The probably has been exhausted, the world we are in must have improbably elements. Someone we are clearing is getting cleared for a wrong reason. Tinfoil is "justified" because unless we questions what we "strongly believe to be correct", we're all town here. And I am very proud of all of my teammates because we did not go for any easy or thoughtless lynches in that situation.

    The S6G4 town fell victim to tinfoil harder and faster than I had ever seen before, and none of it was justified. It was why they left the all-but-outed digitaldude alive on D3.
    Digitaldude was left alive so he could be rolecopped. The setup does not flip roles; Dendrek claimed to have been blocked, which might have been a fake claim; finding out that digitaldude was the mafia roleblocker corroborated Dendrek's claim and gave town more information to work with. It was done to eliminate a possibility we had been tinfoiling on.

    This situation has come up again in a different game with different, experienced players. A situation where, by conventional wisdom, everyone is town and "modbot has screwed up" happens now and again. It leads to mislynches. Even good players find this very difficult. You are putting this up for "entertainment", which is fine because we're playing mafia for entertainment, but not explaining the situation properly means that you fail to be educational. You're representing a situation that can happen to everyone (and did, in Marblelympics!) as the failure of the S6G4 players to play well, without providing advice or discussion on how to actually play better in that kind of situation. It promotes a "the bad players are the others" attitude, instead of fostering a "it could happen to you" mindset which would actually educate.

    I'm not happy with that at all.

    You seem to suggest with this list that bad wagons come from rash decisions or bad plays, and that isn't true for Marblelympics and it wasn't true for S6G4. If I'm misreading you here, please educate me.

    The "how to avoid it" part is not working.
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    Special Agent tbh Boquise's Avatar Moderator
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    If a confirmed scum player has slipped out a post that is a plan to discredit another player, I think we all should refrain from mislimming that player later. There is a point and need in re-evaluating, but re-evaluating everything and giving everything the same weight will, ime, only make you lost inside your head. I think that is what it means with "find some set assumptions and follow them". You could be wrong at some ends, but you will also probably avoid certain blunders. And I am saying this as a mass-flipflopper who repeatedly do not follow this all the way and end up making wrong plays that could have been avoided if I stood by my own original convictions (see S5Finale. Had i followed my convictions, I would have 3/4 of the team but I did not. Because I stared down the abyss).

    Like, out of 100 times, how often does scum fake write 1610 and successfully wiping out 3/4 of the team in the process, just to clear the last player? I think at least 90 times out of 100 they do not, especially not in a champ game and not in that thread context, because that goes against the wincon. Occam's razor is a great tool.

    Thats what I think is the lesson tbh
    Reeee-ing into the void and flailing around like a magikarp since 2013

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boquise (#60)
    Like, out of 100 times, how often does scum fake write 1610 and successfully wiping out 3/4 of the team in the process, just to clear the last player? I think at least 90 times out of 100 they do not, especially not in a champ game and not in that thread context, because that goes against the wincon. Occam's razor is a great tool.
    9 times out of 10, scum doesn't block their own player when they could block a town role, and the chance of gettign that block observed is slim. Which means, with your reasoning we don't find scum in that situation.

    The advice that would have worked in such a situation is to see past that one strong piece of evidence that you're basing each clear on, and then re-evaluate the evidence that is left. And that means disregarding the scumslip clear (Apoc), and disregarding the mechanical-ish clear (Dendrek), and the FSP clear (tartina), and then look at the situation again.
    If you only kick out one of the "sure thing" clears, you're still probably going to lynch a town.
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    Responsible for #8 Chemist1422's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mendel (#61)
    Quote Originally Posted by Boquise (#60)
    Like, out of 100 times, how often does scum fake write 1610 and successfully wiping out 3/4 of the team in the process, just to clear the last player? I think at least 90 times out of 100 they do not, especially not in a champ game and not in that thread context, because that goes against the wincon. Occam's razor is a great tool.
    9 times out of 10, scum doesn't block their own player when they could block a town role, and the chance of gettign that block observed is slim. Which means, with your reasoning we don't find scum in that situation.

    The advice that would have worked in such a situation is to see past that one strong piece of evidence that you're basing each clear on, and then re-evaluate the evidence that is left. And that means disregarding the scumslip clear (Apoc), and disregarding the mechanical-ish clear (Dendrek), and the FSP clear (tartina), and then look at the situation again.
    If you only kick out one of the "sure thing" clears, you're still probably going to lynch a town.
    this list isn't talking about why dendrek didn't get eliminated it's talking about why apoc and tartina did
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chemist1422 (#62)
    Quote Originally Posted by mendel (#61)
    Quote Originally Posted by Boquise (#60)
    Like, out of 100 times, how often does scum fake write 1610 and successfully wiping out 3/4 of the team in the process, just to clear the last player? I think at least 90 times out of 100 they do not, especially not in a champ game and not in that thread context, because that goes against the wincon. Occam's razor is a great tool.
    9 times out of 10, scum doesn't block their own player when they could block a town role, and the chance of gettign that block observed is slim. Which means, with your reasoning we don't find scum in that situation.

    The advice that would have worked in such a situation is to see past that one strong piece of evidence that you're basing each clear on, and then re-evaluate the evidence that is left. And that means disregarding the scumslip clear (Apoc), and disregarding the mechanical-ish clear (Dendrek), and the FSP clear (tartina), and then look at the situation again.
    If you only kick out one of the "sure thing" clears, you're still probably going to lynch a town.
    this list isn't talking about why dendrek didn't get eliminated it's talking about why apoc and tartina did
    tartina and Apoc were eliminated because Dendrek (the only remaining scum) was considered clear, along with everyone else, by most players except Apoc, who never accepted that clear.

    You can't talk about Apoc and tartina in isolation, it's not like they were a bad choice when we had better choices to go for, as in some of the other events on that list where eliminations seemed rushed and not well considered. This is only a "worst mislynch" if Dendrek being mafia should somehow have been apparent to most townies; if there was a reasonable PoE that we weren't following, maybe.

    The list talks about why Apoc and tartina shouldn't have been eliminated; it doesn't talk about why Dendrek wasn't eliminated, but if that reason is as strong as the other two, that changes the situation!
    If you can't lynch a player who is "scummy" per se, you need to lynch whoever is scummiest of those that are left. That means you have to consider a comparison. If you refuse to do that comparison, you can't understand this situation properly.
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    Special Agent tbh Boquise's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by mendel (#61)
    Quote Originally Posted by Boquise (#60)
    Like, out of 100 times, how often does scum fake write 1610 and successfully wiping out 3/4 of the team in the process, just to clear the last player? I think at least 90 times out of 100 they do not, especially not in a champ game and not in that thread context, because that goes against the wincon. Occam's razor is a great tool.
    9 times out of 10, scum doesn't block their own player when they could block a town role, and the chance of gettign that block observed is slim. Which means, with your reasoning we don't find scum in that situation.

    The advice that would have worked in such a situation is to see past that one strong piece of evidence that you're basing each clear on, and then re-evaluate the evidence that is left. And that means disregarding the scumslip clear (Apoc), and disregarding the mechanical-ish clear (Dendrek), and the FSP clear (tartina), and then look at the situation again.
    If you only kick out one of the "sure thing" clears, you're still probably going to lynch a town.
    With my reasoning, you would take the three facts and put them in order. Decide which is the likeliest misclear. So no, you don't have to disregard everything just because you need to re-evaluate something. Does scum do weird choices with their night abilities? Sure, that happens. Maybe not that often, but it is a thing. Does scum put themselves on fire for absolutely no reason at all? Seldom in that context. Making big plays with night actions in a champ setting, I see that. A scum player outing himself and another to "clear" their teammate whilst another scum is visibly frozen in the thread, and then frantically try to bury that post and never talk about it again? No.
    Reeee-ing into the void and flailing around like a magikarp since 2013

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boquise (#64)
    Quote Originally Posted by mendel (#61)
    Quote Originally Posted by Boquise (#60)
    Like, out of 100 times, how often does scum fake write 1610 and successfully wiping out 3/4 of the team in the process, just to clear the last player? I think at least 90 times out of 100 they do not, especially not in a champ game and not in that thread context, because that goes against the wincon. Occam's razor is a great tool.
    9 times out of 10, scum doesn't block their own player when they could block a town role, and the chance of gettign that block observed is slim. Which means, with your reasoning we don't find scum in that situation.

    The advice that would have worked in such a situation is to see past that one strong piece of evidence that you're basing each clear on, and then re-evaluate the evidence that is left. And that means disregarding the scumslip clear (Apoc), and disregarding the mechanical-ish clear (Dendrek), and the FSP clear (tartina), and then look at the situation again.
    If you only kick out one of the "sure thing" clears, you're still probably going to lynch a town.
    With my reasoning, you would take the three facts and put them in order. Decide which is the likeliest misclear. So no, you don't have to disregard everything just because you need to re-evaluate something. Does scum do weird choices with their night abilities? Sure, that happens. Maybe not that often, but it is a thing. Does scum put themselves on fire for absolutely no reason at all? Seldom in that context. Making big plays with night actions in a champ setting, I see that. A scum player outing himself and another to "clear" their teammate whilst another scum is visibly frozen in the thread, and then frantically try to bury that post and never talk about it again? No.
    I'm not going to try and re-play the game here, or extend GH's article with another wall post of quotes. Just suffice to say that you're simplifying, and that there was more that went into considering how likely each clear was. (And if we're considering tartina, #4 on this list, doing a FSP when there are only 2 scum left and bus the teammate with the most suspicion on them seems like a reasonable scum play.)

    But yeah, if you're going to reconsider all of the clears and weigh them, that's something that will lead town forward, probably in a similar direction to what I've been suggesting (discard the clears, weigh everything else). It'll depend on what each player thinks more likely from their personal experience, and from how the discussion went in the thread, so it didn't really go too well for us in S6G4, because that is pretty much what we did, and it didn't work out. The only thing that worked was what Apoc did: he had reduced the PoE to zero, he ignored the Dendrek clear, and that enabled him to be the one player who found Dendrek.
    The catch is that we didn't talk about setting that clear aside, and so most townspeople weren't convinced that they should, and then F4 happened and Dendrek didn't get lynched. The insight

    However, if you see another game where town runs out of PoE, I'd be happy to look at which advice they took and how that worked out for them.

    But I expect most towns will leave the wolf a chance to widen the PoE and keep that from happening. Getting to that point where town runs out of PoE means you've robbed the wolf of the power to direct the lynches (by wielding suspicion), and all you've got to do now is find that wolf. Somehow.


    Putting it another way, if the emphasis is not on "compare all of the clears", but rather "pick the least likely clear and lynch that", you're going to have a shortsighted lynch (and possibly more than one). Town has the mindset "we're PoEing the wolves out, and basically winning", which leads to confirmation bias and the hope "this is the scummy one, we're actually done, just a minor delay". Town needs to switch to the mindset "the wolf found their way into the consensus PoE, they could be anyone" and dig in and really do the work on everyone *again*, which is hard to be motivated to do. My take is that if town fails to collectively make that mental switch, they'll keep mislynching. In Marblelympics, most teams were shocked into re-evaluating everything by that mis-elimination, and they all got there in the end.
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