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Thread: Euro-Friendly Ultra-Low Volume Game Night 4
Night 4 

  1. ISO #551
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    Quote Originally Posted by niphredil
    ##Vote Ruby
    It is now 7:01:36 AM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  2. ISO #552
    Thread Analyst Sherlock Holmes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#548)
    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock Holmes (#513)
    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#498)
    I think the other wolf is Underking.

    There HAD to be at least one mafia voting for Wisdom. The other voters were Ichigo and Schweppes; Since I feel Ichigo is towny, and Schweppes started pushing Esooa very early, it has to be UK.
    @Numka
    What makes you think that there had to be one?
    Why did you not think of it, or at least said so on the thread, last day phase?

    @twomillionbucks
    Why do you still vote Schweppes, despite their moves on Esooa so far? If you believe it's bussing, I'd like to know what makes you disregard their votes.

    Quote Originally Posted by niphredil (#488)
    okay so, what exactly was my problem with ruby's esooa progression here

    - the literally only part of her iso that seemed like it had any interest in actually figuring out esooa's alignment was 75, and that was just some early-game poking that she immediately backed off of
    - what makes this (lack of trying to solve esooa) extremely weird is how much she actually talks about her, like there's multiple mentions of stuff like semi-"following" esooa, like 109 and 248. but nothing that looks like she's trying to solve esooa at all
    - her vote on esooa, which does not come naturally at all
    - 340 ruby had been somewhat townreading esooa ("slightly towny things" and thinking esooa is not w/w with her top scumread schweppes). and that's the latest read ruby gives of her (and esooa barely even posts after that, so there shouldn't really be much that could even change her read there)
    - 358 the actual last post (before the vote), which has absolutely no indication that esooa's few posts changed ruby's read there at all. (and esooa never posted after that)
    - so where tf did the "esooa is scummy" come from? why did it only come when esooa was already top wagon, when ruby had been avoiding giving a read there the entire game? why did the fact that her top scumread was clearly not w/w with esooa not seem to give ruby any pause about voting esooa?

    mostly it's about how ruby had been really non-committal about her read on esooa the entire game, then that suddenly changed when it was eod and esooa was still top wagon, and suddenly esooa was scummy (and that read seemed to come out of nowhere). and that doesnt feel natural at all

    i guess it just feels like ruby was just following the thread consensus and voting there for the cred, instead of actually thinking esooa is wolf
    Moving to a wolf bandwagon for cred requires thinking/knowing that said wagon will eliminate a wolf. In normal circumstances, a Town seeing a bandwagon on someone they consider even the slightest Towny with no thoughts of them being a wolf would make them against the bandwagon, not join it. I believe we should listen to @Ruby explaining herself since such moves don't happen commonly for us to come to a trustworthy conclusion.
    It's too good of an opportunity to lynch a townie. If no wolves voted, then Wisdom might not have been lynched.

    I thought it was obvious.
    What makes you think that's not a case of Town with unlucky reads/votes? (Despite Underking claiming to have done that to save Enkidu, if I recall correctly)

    I would understand if your reasoning to suspect Underking had been something along the lines of viewing the last minute switch as an attempt to save Esooa, but yours here appears to be backwards reasoning that is focused on wanting there to be a wolf rather than seeing if there's one. There's no instance in your ISO where you gave your thoughts on Underking's alignment besides the wolfread in P#498 which isn't based on any of their content.

  3. ISO #553
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    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#548)
    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock Holmes (#513)
    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#498)
    I think the other wolf is Underking.

    There HAD to be at least one mafia voting for Wisdom. The other voters were Ichigo and Schweppes; Since I feel Ichigo is towny, and Schweppes started pushing Esooa very early, it has to be UK.
    @Numka
    What makes you think that there had to be one?
    Why did you not think of it, or at least said so on the thread, last day phase?

    @twomillionbucks
    Why do you still vote Schweppes, despite their moves on Esooa so far? If you believe it's bussing, I'd like to know what makes you disregard their votes.

    Quote Originally Posted by niphredil (#488)
    okay so, what exactly was my problem with ruby's esooa progression here

    - the literally only part of her iso that seemed like it had any interest in actually figuring out esooa's alignment was 75, and that was just some early-game poking that she immediately backed off of
    - what makes this (lack of trying to solve esooa) extremely weird is how much she actually talks about her, like there's multiple mentions of stuff like semi-"following" esooa, like 109 and 248. but nothing that looks like she's trying to solve esooa at all
    - her vote on esooa, which does not come naturally at all
    - 340 ruby had been somewhat townreading esooa ("slightly towny things" and thinking esooa is not w/w with her top scumread schweppes). and that's the latest read ruby gives of her (and esooa barely even posts after that, so there shouldn't really be much that could even change her read there)
    - 358 the actual last post (before the vote), which has absolutely no indication that esooa's few posts changed ruby's read there at all. (and esooa never posted after that)
    - so where tf did the "esooa is scummy" come from? why did it only come when esooa was already top wagon, when ruby had been avoiding giving a read there the entire game? why did the fact that her top scumread was clearly not w/w with esooa not seem to give ruby any pause about voting esooa?

    mostly it's about how ruby had been really non-committal about her read on esooa the entire game, then that suddenly changed when it was eod and esooa was still top wagon, and suddenly esooa was scummy (and that read seemed to come out of nowhere). and that doesnt feel natural at all

    i guess it just feels like ruby was just following the thread consensus and voting there for the cred, instead of actually thinking esooa is wolf
    Moving to a wolf bandwagon for cred requires thinking/knowing that said wagon will eliminate a wolf. In normal circumstances, a Town seeing a bandwagon on someone they consider even the slightest Towny with no thoughts of them being a wolf would make them against the bandwagon, not join it. I believe we should listen to @Ruby explaining herself since such moves don't happen commonly for us to come to a trustworthy conclusion.


    It's too good of an opportunity to lynch a townie. If no wolves voted, then Wisdom might not have been lynched.

    I thought it was obvious.
    Esooa was one of the wagons
    Quote Originally Posted by niphredil (#550)
    Assuming you are town, there was three town wagons. Why would wolves want to vote exactly Wisdom there, instead of you or Enkidu?
    Wisdom already had my vote, and obviously I was AFK, so Wisdom would be easier to elim instead of any other 2-player wagon.

    I like Numka's ideas here

    ##Unvote Numka

  4. ISO #554
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo
    ##Vote Ruby
    It is now 7:23:12 AM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  5. ISO #555
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    Euro-Friendly Ultra-Low Volume Game Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 twomillionbucks AXIS (12), Numka (6), Ruby (6)
    3 Ruby Underking (8), niphredil (4), Kurosaki Ichigo (8)
    2 Numka Sherlock Holmes (6), twomillionbucks (8)
    1 Not voting Schweppes (4)

    View Vote History

    Day 3 ends at 3:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  6. ISO #556
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    Retrospective Day 1 Votecount as of Post #219

    Post #219 was originally posted at 2:59 PM EST on Wednesday, February 17th, 2021.

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    2 Wisdom Kurosaki Ichigo, Schweppes
    2 Numka AXIS, Underking
    2 Enkidu Wisdom, twomillionbucks
    2 Esooa DENMON, niphredil
    1 niphredil Esooa
    1 Schweppes Ruby
    3 Not voting Sherlock Holmes, Numka, Enkidu

    View Vote History

    Requested by Kurosaki Ichigo.

  7. ISO #557
    Thread Analyst AXIS's Avatar
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    Well, I’m off to bed. This ought to be an interesting read in the morning.

  8. ISO #558
    Thread Analyst twomillionbucks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AXIS (#541)
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#540)
    ISOs, conclusion:

    On the whole, my top three suspects are Numka, Nipheril, and Underking. Below them on kind of a meh tier are Holmes and Axis. Good reads on most of the others.

    ##Vote Numka
    Humour with with a game solve please

    Gun to your head. Whose a third scum?
    I decline to answer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#545)
    Cause I think you're the first wolf (after esooa). An UK is the other wolf.
    Wrong answer, sorry. You didn't think I was a wolf. You voted me, explicitly, because you didn't have the mental fortitude to come to any conclusions. That's literally the only reason you gave for it. In the context of the "other wolf" post, you had I been talking about me or anyone else being a wolf.

    I think it's a slip. I think you thought in terms of "other wolf" because you were thinking of yourself as a wolf.

  9. ISO #559
    Thread Analyst twomillionbucks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#546)
    Quote Originally Posted by AXIS (#541)
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#540)
    ISOs, conclusion:

    On the whole, my top three suspects are Numka, Nipheril, and Underking. Below them on kind of a meh tier are Holmes and Axis. Good reads on most of the others.

    ##Vote Numka
    Humour with with a game solve please

    Gun to your head. Whose a third scum?
    2MB is wolf. That's why he's trying to push me now. Don't fall for it
    Do you think that the other people voting for you are also wolves?

  10. ISO #560
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#558)
    Quote Originally Posted by AXIS (#541)
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#540)
    ISOs, conclusion:

    On the whole, my top three suspects are Numka, Nipheril, and Underking. Below them on kind of a meh tier are Holmes and Axis. Good reads on most of the others.

    ##Vote Numka
    Humour with with a game solve please

    Gun to your head. Whose a third scum?
    I decline to answer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#545)
    Cause I think you're the first wolf (after esooa). An UK is the other wolf.
    Wrong answer, sorry. You didn't think I was a wolf. You voted me, explicitly, because you didn't have the mental fortitude to come to any conclusions. That's literally the only reason you gave for it. In the context of the "other wolf" post, you had I been talking about me or anyone else being a wolf.

    I think it's a slip. I think you thought in terms of "other wolf" because you were thinking of yourself as a wolf.
    Lol

  11. ISO #561
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#559)
    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#546)
    Quote Originally Posted by AXIS (#541)
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#540)
    ISOs, conclusion:

    On the whole, my top three suspects are Numka, Nipheril, and Underking. Below them on kind of a meh tier are Holmes and Axis. Good reads on most of the others.

    ##Vote Numka
    Humour with with a game solve please

    Gun to your head. Whose a third scum?
    2MB is wolf. That's why he's trying to push me now. Don't fall for it
    Do you think that the other people voting for you are also wolves?
    No

  12. ISO #562
    Broke 2000 again, woot.

    I'm not going to lie here, Numka's declaration of "Don't fall for it." reads a little performatively here and I love science also so why not make the votecount interesting and

    ##Vote Numka

    I think a Numka/2mil team makes some sense here. I'm not sure how to reconcile Numka posting "I thought it was obvious" in reference to there being scum on Wisdom with the tone I got from them earlier. Like, there's definitely an unnatural pressure causing it. It doesn't help that I'm horrifically confused how wolf being on a town wagon is obvious. And at this point Numka is pushing a weird survival agenda. Attacking AXIS for having a 2mil/Numka pair in the way they did also caught me off guard. You say that this pairing is impossible, but I don't understand why you think that its so obvious that you couldn't possibly be bussing.

    2mil is still ... sketchy? I really didn't like the fact that he came in today having no thoughts at all about who Esooa's partners might be and voted me instead at the same time as talking about making progress (like wat); it gives the impression he isn't interested in solving.

    I want to doubt the fact that Ichigo is a wolf simply because his thread presence seems to indicate that he's actually doing something behind the scenes, whereby something I mean solving. However, unlike what someone said earlier, Ichigo is not transparent and for this reason I'm not going to be confident about him.

    Still think Ruby is fine. Her explanation was definitely confidence-inspiring, given the fact that her explanations before were either non-existent, short, or unclear, and its good that she recognized the v/w on sight. Underking is still fine. AXIS is still fine.

    I'm going to be stubborn with my Sherlock read even though its hard to back up with the limited quantity of posts.

  13. ISO #563
    @Kurosaki Ichigo
    Well now we have Ruby's answer. You were one of those Schweppes -> Esooa voters, any stories to tell? 2mil's story is not confidence-inspiring. Was my wagon made to be an anti-Esooa wagon by scum? Thats the easiest surface-level explanation, but I'm not convinced its borne out by the evidence.

  14. ISO #564
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    If you vote me, and I turn out to be townie, will that help you any?

    I'm serious

  15. ISO #565
    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#564)
    If you vote me, and I turn out to be townie, will that help you any?

    I'm serious
    I don't know, but being level-headed about this and not resorting to (whats it called? I know its not AtE apparently but gah) would be helpful. You should not be freaking out about 2 votes like how you did.

    2mil remains most likely scum I think, and we still have 4 hours left. Half the day's posts are often made in that period.

  16. ISO #566
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    Euro-Friendly Ultra-Low Volume Game Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 twomillionbucks AXIS (13), Numka (9), Ruby (6)
    3 Ruby Underking (8), niphredil (4), Kurosaki Ichigo (8)
    3 Numka Sherlock Holmes (6), twomillionbucks (10), Schweppes (7)

    View Vote History

    Day 3 ends at 3:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  17. ISO #567
    Mistake: 3 votes.

  18. ISO #568
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#565)
    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#564)
    If you vote me, and I turn out to be townie, will that help you any?

    I'm serious
    I don't know, but being level-headed about this and not resorting to (whats it called? I know its not AtE apparently but gah) would be helpful. You should not be freaking out about 2 votes like how you did.

    2mil remains most likely scum I think, and we still have 4 hours left. Half the day's posts are often made in that period.
    But I'm not freaking out about the votes, 2MB is. As I said earlier, I'm not that surprised. I'm more surprised when I'm NOT voted.

  19. ISO #569
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#563)
    @Kurosaki Ichigo
    Well now we have Ruby's answer. You were one of those Schweppes -> Esooa voters, any stories to tell? 2mil's story is not confidence-inspiring. Was my wagon made to be an anti-Esooa wagon by scum? Thats the easiest surface-level explanation, but I'm not convinced its borne out by the evidence.
    I think you have scum equity
    To summarize you tried to save Esooa at the End of the Day 1 and you succeed

  20. ISO #570
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    What if no one is a wolf of all 3?

  21. ISO #571
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    Now I'm split between UK and Ruby. I think UK's last couple of posts were good.

  22. ISO #572
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    Now that Ichigo said it, Schweppes had a couple of dubious moves too.

  23. ISO #573
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#570)
    What if no one is a wolf of all 3?
    I mean, it's possible. But what is the chance? You're a wolf and you have a perfect wagon on d1 - why wouldn't at least one wolf vote?

    Also - I think Wisdom was obviously a good and experienced player. I think they would have taken a chance to remove her. They proved good at picking better players off, too.

  24. ISO #574
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    Ruby's ISO made me think she was town because she immediately called out Esooa. On the other hand, judging by her playstyle, it seems not too far-fetched for her to have ribbed her partner that way.

  25. ISO #575
    Bandwagoner Numka's Avatar
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    Ultimately, I think it's 2MB and Schweppes/Ruby.

  26. ISO #576
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo
    ##Vote Schweppes
    It is now 12:20:51 PM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  27. ISO #577
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    Euro-Friendly Ultra-Low Volume Game Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 twomillionbucks AXIS (13), Numka (15), Ruby (6)
    3 Numka Sherlock Holmes (6), twomillionbucks (10), Schweppes (8)
    2 Ruby Underking (8), niphredil (4)
    1 Schweppes Kurosaki Ichigo (10)

    View Vote History

    Day 3 ends at 3:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  28. ISO #578
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#558)
    Wrong answer, sorry. You didn't think I was a wolf. You voted me, explicitly, because you didn't have the mental fortitude to come to any conclusions. That's literally the only reason you gave for it. In the context of the "other wolf" post, you had I been talking about me or anyone else being a wolf.

    I think it's a slip. I think you thought in terms of "other wolf" because you were thinking of yourself as a wolf.
    have you ever actually seen a wolf making that slip?

    because like every time I've seen someone being accused of that, they've flipped town

    and Numka's explanation makes perfect sense (and is exactly what I thought she meant)

    I don't really think that's a slip, not even if Numka is wolf

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#569)
    I think you have scum equity
    To summarize you tried to save Esooa at the End of the Day 1 and you succeed
    do you think the schweppes/esooa interactions on d2 are faked, then?

    (also if schweppes wanted to save esooa d1, why did he vote her and say esooa is the only wagon he likes? that feels like it'd be something wolf realizes not to say there, because it'll just bring more attention to him when he actually saves her there)

  29. ISO #579
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#569)
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#563)
    @Kurosaki Ichigo
    Well now we have Ruby's answer. You were one of those Schweppes -> Esooa voters, any stories to tell? 2mil's story is not confidence-inspiring. Was my wagon made to be an anti-Esooa wagon by scum? Thats the easiest surface-level explanation, but I'm not convinced its borne out by the evidence.
    I think you have scum equity
    To summarize you tried to save Esooa at the End of the Day 1 and you succeed
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#569)
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#563)
    @Kurosaki Ichigo
    Well now we have Ruby's answer. You were one of those Schweppes -> Esooa voters, any stories to tell? 2mil's story is not confidence-inspiring. Was my wagon made to be an anti-Esooa wagon by scum? Thats the easiest surface-level explanation, but I'm not convinced its borne out by the evidence.
    I think you have scum equity
    To summarize you tried to save Esooa at the End of the Day 1 and you succeed
    Mmmmm. I guess that is possible.

    UK -> Esooa -> Enkidu -> Wisdom

    I don't know what makes wolf me get off UK and vote Esooa in the first place to make it a relevant wagon or get off Enkidu either but meh.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#570)
    What if no one is a wolf of all 3?
    Do you mean the current wagons or of those who voted Wisdom? The latter is certainly possible, the former ... I think impossible? Sure, fine, none are wolves and we prepare for worst-case scenario. Then we're left with {Sherlock, AXIS, Underking, Ichigo}. Still think Niphredil is cleared. In this pool, I immediately think {Underking, Ichigo}. AXIS and Sherlock are completely clean, and I've had a townread on AXIS from early, and good townread on Sherlock since he reappeared.

    I mean there's nothing glaringly off about {Underking, Ichigo}, but seems bad.

  30. ISO #580
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#579)
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#569)
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#563)
    @Kurosaki Ichigo
    Well now we have Ruby's answer. You were one of those Schweppes -> Esooa voters, any stories to tell? 2mil's story is not confidence-inspiring. Was my wagon made to be an anti-Esooa wagon by scum? Thats the easiest surface-level explanation, but I'm not convinced its borne out by the evidence.
    I think you have scum equity
    To summarize you tried to save Esooa at the End of the Day 1 and you succeed
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#569)
    Quote Originally Posted by Schweppes (#563)
    @Kurosaki Ichigo
    Well now we have Ruby's answer. You were one of those Schweppes -> Esooa voters, any stories to tell? 2mil's story is not confidence-inspiring. Was my wagon made to be an anti-Esooa wagon by scum? Thats the easiest surface-level explanation, but I'm not convinced its borne out by the evidence.
    I think you have scum equity
    To summarize you tried to save Esooa at the End of the Day 1 and you succeed
    Mmmmm. I guess that is possible.

    UK -> Esooa -> Enkidu -> Wisdom

    I don't know what makes wolf me get off UK and vote Esooa in the first place to make it a relevant wagon or get off Enkidu either but meh.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#570)
    What if no one is a wolf of all 3?
    Do you mean the current wagons or of those who voted Wisdom? The latter is certainly possible, the former ... I think impossible? Sure, fine, none are wolves and we prepare for worst-case scenario. Then we're left with {Sherlock, AXIS, Underking, Ichigo}. Still think Niphredil is cleared. In this pool, I immediately think {Underking, Ichigo}. AXIS and Sherlock are completely clean, and I've had a townread on AXIS from early, and good townread on Sherlock since he reappeared.

    I mean there's nothing glaringly off about {Underking, Ichigo}, but seems bad.
    Why is Sherlock completely clean?

  31. ISO #581
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    Retrospective Day 1 Votecount as of Post #27

    Post #27 was originally posted at 6:19 AM EST on Tuesday, February 16th, 2021.

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 Kurosaki Ichigo twomillionbucks, DENMON, Numka
    2 Wisdom Esooa, Underking
    1 Sherlock Holmes Kurosaki Ichigo
    1 Esooa Wisdom
    1 Schweppes Enkidu
    5 Not voting AXIS, Ruby, Sherlock Holmes, niphredil, Schweppes

    View Vote History

    Requested by Kurosaki Ichigo.

  32. ISO #582
    By clean I mean, no one's pointed out anything wrong whether it be their vote history or reactions or whatever.

    But, I feel like I can understand Sherlock's thinking to some extent. He obviously cares about the accuracy reads; the fact that he has so few scumreads and so few townreads is proof of that. He's looking for something very specific. I also believe that having so many nullreads shows that he doesn't really care about appearances. There's also no way Sherlock has an agenda. I can't see it. All of his moves are based on the tiny but important things he's written down.

  33. ISO #583
    Thread Analyst twomillionbucks's Avatar
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    Post 11/30

    I will note here that Nephridil, despite expressing suspicion of Numka at several points, has so far always avoided voting there when it matters.

  34. ISO #584
    i kinda feel like 2mb/numka is v/v

    and like i don't have any actual reasons to townread them or anything, but dunno

    it just doesnt feel correct

    (feel free to laugh at me when they both flip wolf)

  35. ISO #585
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mafia Host (#581)
    Retrospective Day 1 Votecount as of Post #27

    Post #27 was originally posted at 6:19 AM EST on Tuesday, February 16th, 2021.

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 Kurosaki Ichigo twomillionbucks, DENMON, Numka
    2 Wisdom Esooa, Underking
    1 Sherlock Holmes Kurosaki Ichigo
    1 Esooa Wisdom
    1 Schweppes Enkidu
    5 Not voting AXIS, Ruby, Sherlock Holmes, niphredil, Schweppes

    View Vote History

    Requested by Kurosaki Ichigo.
    The first wagon that reached 3 voters in a game could contain a wolf in it, so one of 2 MB and Numka can be a wolf, because wolves like to look active.

    I will post my ideas as I reread the game

  36. ISO #586
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#583)
    Post 11/30

    I will note here that Nephridil, despite expressing suspicion of Numka at several points, has so far always avoided voting there when it matters.
    lmao nice crosspost

    but like i've never had numka as lower than null? i've always thought she's like null/slightly town, so why would i have ever voted there, when i have other options who i find more likely to be wolves?

  37. ISO #587
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#558)
    Quote Originally Posted by AXIS (#541)
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#540)
    ISOs, conclusion:

    On the whole, my top three suspects are Numka, Nipheril, and Underking. Below them on kind of a meh tier are Holmes and Axis. Good reads on most of the others.

    ##Vote Numka
    Humour with with a game solve please

    Gun to your head. Whose a third scum?
    I decline to answer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Numka (#545)
    Cause I think you're the first wolf (after esooa). An UK is the other wolf.
    Wrong answer, sorry. You didn't think I was a wolf. You voted me, explicitly, because you didn't have the mental fortitude to come to any conclusions. That's literally the only reason you gave for it. In the context of the "other wolf" post, you had I been talking about me or anyone else being a wolf.

    I think it's a slip. I think you thought in terms of "other wolf" because you were thinking of yourself as a wolf.
    ##Vote Numka

  38. ISO #588
    Automatic Game Mod Mafia Host's Avatar
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    Euro-Friendly Ultra-Low Volume Game Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    4 Numka Sherlock Holmes (6), twomillionbucks (11), Schweppes (10), Kurosaki Ichigo (13)
    3 twomillionbucks AXIS (13), Numka (15), Ruby (6)
    2 Ruby Underking (8), niphredil (7)

    View Vote History

    Day 3 ends at 3:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  39. ISO #589
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enkidu (#396)
    For the record, I do plan on going through 2MB, Scheweppes and UK ISOs to determine whether there are any links which may indicated they are teamed. It's just that the alphabet of my PoE starts with E, so Esooa got done first.
    NKA would say something, showing that Enkidu was probably right

  40. ISO #590
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enkidu (#424)
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#415)
    I didn't buy your reaction to your early suspicion. You didn't buy my reaction to your EOD. Both of those things are based in mental models of another person that don't make a lot of sense to someone else.
    You seem to be confused. I didn't have any "early suspicion". You took a pot-shot at me in p#157, some 1.5 hours before End of Day, and then unvoted 8 posts later.

    Wisdom then voted me in p#172, 45 minutes before End of Day. Following that, 3 more votes rapidly followed, including another from you. Here is a selection of reasons given by people voting me:

    Wisdom: p#172 - "I think Enkidu and Sherlock are teamed"
    niphredil: p#164 - "he's not playing like his last town game"
    2mb: p#178 - "I support your Sherlock/Enkidu read, Wisdom"
    Schweppes: p#184 - "I townread you, but I'm going to policy vote you anyway"
    2mb: p#198 - "Talked about their own meta. Also not fighting back looks like passive aggressive evil"

    Perhaps people had these "early" suspicions about me, but for some reason you all chose not to voice them until 45 minutes before EoD, when I had already stated my time would be limited and I would be forced to contribute from my phone.

    At this stage I should probably also point out your lie. You claimed that one of your reasons for voting me was "Not fighting back against the lynch looks passive aggressive evil."

    But I didn't actually state I wouldn't fight my mislynch until AFTER you voted me. You may wish to consult the timestamp of the thread before inventing justifications for your votes, in future. It will certainly help to make them more believable.
    ##Vote twomillionbucks

    I don't think I can find better words than the ones posted by Enkidu

  41. ISO #591
    Automatic Game Mod Mafia Host's Avatar
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    Euro-Friendly Ultra-Low Volume Game Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    4 twomillionbucks AXIS (13), Numka (15), Ruby (6), Kurosaki Ichigo (15)
    3 Numka Sherlock Holmes (6), twomillionbucks (11), Schweppes (10)
    2 Ruby Underking (8), niphredil (7)

    View Vote History

    Day 3 ends at 3:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  42. ISO #592
    Thread Analyst twomillionbucks's Avatar
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    Post 12/30

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurosaki Ichigo (#590)
    Quote Originally Posted by Enkidu (#424)
    Quote Originally Posted by twomillionbucks (#415)
    I didn't buy your reaction to your early suspicion. You didn't buy my reaction to your EOD. Both of those things are based in mental models of another person that don't make a lot of sense to someone else.
    You seem to be confused. I didn't have any "early suspicion". You took a pot-shot at me in p#157, some 1.5 hours before End of Day, and then unvoted 8 posts later.

    Wisdom then voted me in p#172, 45 minutes before End of Day. Following that, 3 more votes rapidly followed, including another from you. Here is a selection of reasons given by people voting me:

    Wisdom: p#172 - "I think Enkidu and Sherlock are teamed"
    niphredil: p#164 - "he's not playing like his last town game"
    2mb: p#178 - "I support your Sherlock/Enkidu read, Wisdom"
    Schweppes: p#184 - "I townread you, but I'm going to policy vote you anyway"
    2mb: p#198 - "Talked about their own meta. Also not fighting back looks like passive aggressive evil"

    Perhaps people had these "early" suspicions about me, but for some reason you all chose not to voice them until 45 minutes before EoD, when I had already stated my time would be limited and I would be forced to contribute from my phone.

    At this stage I should probably also point out your lie. You claimed that one of your reasons for voting me was "Not fighting back against the lynch looks passive aggressive evil."

    But I didn't actually state I wouldn't fight my mislynch until AFTER you voted me. You may wish to consult the timestamp of the thread before inventing justifications for your votes, in future. It will certainly help to make them more believable.
    ##Vote twomillionbucks

    I don't think I can find better words than the ones posted by Enkidu
    The fact remains that I am good and that these stated reasons are all wrong. Actually, I rather enjoy seeing Enkidu worked up, knowing that his reasons are wrong.

    I wonder if he'll reform his hunting methods after this game, or if he'll say that I played wrong and it's my fault he was suspicious of me? People take both approaches.

  43. ISO #593
    Automatic Game Mod Mafia Host's Avatar
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    Euro-Friendly Ultra-Low Volume Game Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    4 twomillionbucks AXIS (13), Numka (15), Ruby (6), Kurosaki Ichigo (15)
    3 Numka Sherlock Holmes (6), twomillionbucks (12), Schweppes (10)
    2 Ruby Underking (8), niphredil (7)

    View Vote History

    Day 3 ends at 3:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  44. ISO #594
    Wants It More Underking's Avatar
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    Don't have as much time as I wanted (due to work and hosting my own game).

    Still I think in general terms I'm fine not really going outside of my yesterday's PoE in general.

    I think in terms of how today was played, Ruby's approach probably the least villagery out of that group. She did seem to put more effort into defending herself than into actually solving. Like, if you look through her posts today, you'd only find a hedgy take on 2mb, and nothing else really (other than explanations of past actions in regards to Esooa).
    I don't know, among all players alive in the game, I feel like that's the slot which is the most uninterested in solving the game and therefore a likely wolf.

    As I said, Esooa's ISO warmed me up to Numka a little bit. And I actually think they've been posting somewhat fine today. (very conscise, but there are traces of actual thought in it).

    2mb is still pretty meh for me, as I don't think his EoD1 is a good look for him (I mean, sure, his lack of read/stance on Esooa at EoD can't be really taken as wolfy for certain, but I'm still having trouble getting over concerns over his a bit unnatural shifting between two possible options he could take, which were both town (by which I mean, voting Enkidu or voting Wisdom, which he could have both realistically do with how he posted about them)).
    I remember one thing that gave me pause yesterday was the timing of his post where he defended Esooa (it was P#399), I quoted votecount at the time, and it was 4-4 wagons of Esooa/2mb at the time. I was just thinking, would a wolf who is struggling in the thread (and in bad position) associate himself with a partner like this?
    Could be WiFoM, I guess.

  45. ISO #595
    Wants It More Underking's Avatar
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    In terms of the lynch, I'd prefer Ruby>2mb>Numka. (I don't think I'd be voting Numka today though)


    I'm not sure if all wolves are really in those 3, there were indicators that Ruby/Numka aren't paired at the very least.


    I just don't think niphredil or Schweppes can be wolves, like, ever, Kurosaki I think has given me consistently good vibes mostly from (and I'm not sure how to describe it best even in my head) how sharp his posts feel.
    (and no, when I said his EoD looks tecnically bad, I never implied I actually think it looked bad, it was just against Esooa wagon by votes alone. I didn't really feel he was wolf motivated).


    A wolf being in Axis or Sherlock I guess I don't see as really impossible, even though I don't believe I can find it for now. For both I could name a lot of reasons for them to be town if I wanted.

  46. ISO #596
    Wants It More Underking's Avatar
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    Short version:

    Ruby just kinda feels like the most sure hit to me.

  47. ISO #597
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruby (#527)
    Voting 2MB was part of impulse and train of consciousness for me, but I don't think there was ever a world where I would have settled on 2MB through end of day rather than Esooa/Schweppes. If I have the info that there is almost for-for sure scum in between 2 players, or the info that one player is maybe a little more likely to be scum compared to each of the others, to me it makes much more sense to go with the former. The base chance of any slot to be scum is 3/13, one scum out of two is 6.5/13, if 2MB was like a third more likely to be scum that'd just be 4/13.

    I'm not positive he's scum now, I've found a town interpretation of more of his posts throughout the game than most. I do agree with the sentiment that bussing occurred though, so that's the kind of slot I want to look at, but I'd be willing to engage with him or engage about other people from the wagon. He's kind of rolling over which forces our hand? I wish the poem transcendentally whispered the essential radiance of his alignment's resonance, but it didn't really do much for me.

    I don't think I'd progress on Esooa the way I did if I randed wolf with her, but that probably depends on knowledge of myself others don't have and ideas that could be considered WIFOM. I'd rather encourage people to vote based on a combination of associatives and independent scumminess/towniness rather than pure associatives. Because in other respects I think my alignment shows. (also do I ever kill Enkidu here?)
    Rereading this post I want to
    ##Vote Ruby

    The bold part is horrible, how can a villager say this and disappear?

  48. ISO #598
    Automatic Game Mod Mafia Host's Avatar
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    Euro-Friendly Ultra-Low Volume Game Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 twomillionbucks AXIS (13), Numka (15), Ruby (6)
    3 Numka Sherlock Holmes (6), twomillionbucks (12), Schweppes (10)
    3 Ruby Underking (11), niphredil (7), Kurosaki Ichigo (16)

    View Vote History

    Day 3 ends at 3:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. There are 1614110460000 remaining.

  49. ISO #599
    Thread Analyst Kurosaki Ichigo's Avatar
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    I don't like that tie

  50. ISO #600
    Thread Analyst twomillionbucks's Avatar
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    ##Vote Ruby

    Self-defense. I mean, hey, it worked out last time.

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