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Thread: Cemeteries Mountainous Arson Day 3
Day 3 

  1. ISO #2751
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rue (#2747)
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2743)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rue (#2742)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rue (#2717)
    Apologies for being absent, I had other things to attend to today.

    I don't see where the idea of a c4/Cemeteries world comes from? Yesterday made them feel somewhat unaligned for me.

    I think there's maximum one wolf in {c4, Cemeteries, Ellie}.

    If I take SPF, Gira, Wisdom, and MFitz as town, that means there's also at least one wolf in {BK, Sonrio, Frag}.

    Am I missing something here?
    @staypositivefriend

    What do you think about this post?
    this is roughly where i align too, yes

    i don't think that a c4/cem world makes sense. their interactions have been too personal and too tonally all-over-the-place to make sense as scum. (in that respect, that's why i'm concerned about the fact that ellie immediately started pushing for a c4/cem scum world instead of hunting for reads outside. ellie's reads were remarkably in line with the consensus for someone who has presumably barely been reading the thread. i think ellie re-evaluating her read on cem/c4 being teamed was townyish but i think her solving generally feels aimless)

    if this game is level 0, then the poe of cem/c4/ellie could have two wolves, but i think the game is probably not that simple. at any rate, anyone that has the specific POE of cem/c4/ellie probably has to believe that ellie is one of the scum, since cem/c4 have low partner equity

    i would fairly comfortably take you and MFitz out of my POE right now. i would take gira out of my POE with a little bit more caution. sonrio has looked the worst to me today out of all of the people in the pool of BK/sonrio/frag, even though i thought his interactions with marl were a fairly decent look for him

    i also would very much like @BlueKang to explain and expand on his vote on c4 a little bit more
    Can you talk with me about Wisdom?

    You didn't mention taking her out of your PoE, but she isn't in your list either.
    oh yeah, i briefly forgot that wisdom existed when i was writing that post

    i maintain that wisdom positioned themselves in a very suboptimal place if they were scum w/marl - the way that they hedged on marl without outright defending him is the type of play that would make it very unlikely for the momentum to get off of marl, and it would give them zero towncred when marl eventually flipped

    ive been kind of whelmed by how sparse wisdom's content has been in contrast with their strong energy at the start of d1 but they wouldnt be my first place to look for a tinfoil. probably in the same tier as gira

  2. ISO #2752
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheFraggernaut (#2750)
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2743)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rue (#2742)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rue (#2717)
    Apologies for being absent, I had other things to attend to today.

    I don't see where the idea of a c4/Cemeteries world comes from? Yesterday made them feel somewhat unaligned for me.

    I think there's maximum one wolf in {c4, Cemeteries, Ellie}.

    If I take SPF, Gira, Wisdom, and MFitz as town, that means there's also at least one wolf in {BK, Sonrio, Frag}.

    Am I missing something here?
    @staypositivefriend

    What do you think about this post?
    this is roughly where i align too, yes

    i don't think that a c4/cem world makes sense. their interactions have been too personal and too tonally all-over-the-place to make sense as scum. (in that respect, that's why i'm concerned about the fact that ellie immediately started pushing for a c4/cem scum world instead of hunting for reads outside. ellie's reads were remarkably in line with the consensus for someone who has presumably barely been reading the thread. i think ellie re-evaluating her read on cem/c4 being teamed was townyish but i think her solving generally feels aimless)

    if this game is level 0, then the poe of cem/c4/ellie could have two wolves, but i think the game is probably not that simple. at any rate, anyone that has the specific POE of cem/c4/ellie probably has to believe that ellie is one of the scum, since cem/c4 have low partner equity

    i would fairly comfortably take you and MFitz out of my POE right now. i would take gira out of my POE with a little bit more caution. sonrio has looked the worst to me today out of all of the people in the pool of BK/sonrio/frag, even though i thought his interactions with marl were a fairly decent look for him

    i also would very much like @BlueKang to explain and expand on his vote on c4 a little bit more
    Who do you think is possibly a deep wolf?
    gth? sonrio

  3. ISO #2753
    Soul Reader TheFraggernaut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2752)
    Quote Originally Posted by TheFraggernaut (#2750)
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2743)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rue (#2742)
    @staypositivefriend

    What do you think about this post?
    this is roughly where i align too, yes

    i don't think that a c4/cem world makes sense. their interactions have been too personal and too tonally all-over-the-place to make sense as scum. (in that respect, that's why i'm concerned about the fact that ellie immediately started pushing for a c4/cem scum world instead of hunting for reads outside. ellie's reads were remarkably in line with the consensus for someone who has presumably barely been reading the thread. i think ellie re-evaluating her read on cem/c4 being teamed was townyish but i think her solving generally feels aimless)

    if this game is level 0, then the poe of cem/c4/ellie could have two wolves, but i think the game is probably not that simple. at any rate, anyone that has the specific POE of cem/c4/ellie probably has to believe that ellie is one of the scum, since cem/c4 have low partner equity

    i would fairly comfortably take you and MFitz out of my POE right now. i would take gira out of my POE with a little bit more caution. sonrio has looked the worst to me today out of all of the people in the pool of BK/sonrio/frag, even though i thought his interactions with marl were a fairly decent look for him

    i also would very much like @BlueKang to explain and expand on his vote on c4 a little bit more
    Who do you think is possibly a deep wolf?
    gth? sonrio
    Do you think out of Sorino & BK that they're the wolf?

  4. ISO #2754
    Thread Analyst c4e5g3d5's Avatar
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    Might apply a mild amount of effort. Before I do, though,

    @Cemeteries

    Firstly, I have not personally insulted you today. No need to act like that's something happening constantly.

    Secondly, with both your "hasn't responded to stuff" and "not showing evidence" points, I posted a post where I both showed you doing what you have called me out for repeatedly as "not showing evidence" and you brushed that comment off, which is a convenient 2 for 1. No need to act morally superior in a game of mafia, please stop.

    I hope I don't have to ping you with a link to this post a bunch of times when you ignore everything I've said here and keep saying the above two things. If I don't, I might even respond to some of your earlier attacks.

  5. ISO #2755
    Soul Reader TheFraggernaut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by c4e5g3d5 (#2754)
    Might apply a mild amount of effort. Before I do, though,

    @Cemeteries

    Firstly, I have not personally insulted you today. No need to act like that's something happening constantly.

    Secondly, with both your "hasn't responded to stuff" and "not showing evidence" points, I posted a post where I both showed you doing what you have called me out for repeatedly as "not showing evidence" and you brushed that comment off, which is a convenient 2 for 1. No need to act morally superior in a game of mafia, please stop.

    I hope I don't have to ping you with a link to this post a bunch of times when you ignore everything I've said here and keep saying the above two things. If I don't, I might even respond to some of your earlier attacks.
    To be fair your d2 was pretty toxic.

  6. ISO #2756
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheFraggernaut (#2753)
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2752)
    Quote Originally Posted by TheFraggernaut (#2750)
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2743)
    this is roughly where i align too, yes

    i don't think that a c4/cem world makes sense. their interactions have been too personal and too tonally all-over-the-place to make sense as scum. (in that respect, that's why i'm concerned about the fact that ellie immediately started pushing for a c4/cem scum world instead of hunting for reads outside. ellie's reads were remarkably in line with the consensus for someone who has presumably barely been reading the thread. i think ellie re-evaluating her read on cem/c4 being teamed was townyish but i think her solving generally feels aimless)

    if this game is level 0, then the poe of cem/c4/ellie could have two wolves, but i think the game is probably not that simple. at any rate, anyone that has the specific POE of cem/c4/ellie probably has to believe that ellie is one of the scum, since cem/c4 have low partner equity

    i would fairly comfortably take you and MFitz out of my POE right now. i would take gira out of my POE with a little bit more caution. sonrio has looked the worst to me today out of all of the people in the pool of BK/sonrio/frag, even though i thought his interactions with marl were a fairly decent look for him

    i also would very much like @BlueKang to explain and expand on his vote on c4 a little bit more
    Who do you think is possibly a deep wolf?
    gth? sonrio
    Do you think out of Sorino & BK that they're the wolf?
    that is my gth answer but im wondering if im just doing my thing of defaulting to being suspicious of sonrio when i dont see any other obvious targets

    ive felt that youve been p evasive about your read on me - you asked if i was "outing" as a wolf early when i voted for you, and youve answered questions about your read on me with: "other people have SPF as locktown". do you have me as town? ~am~ i town??

  7. ISO #2757
    Thread Analyst Sonrio's Avatar
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    me? a deep wolf? girl

  8. ISO #2758
    Soul Reader TheFraggernaut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2756)
    Quote Originally Posted by TheFraggernaut (#2753)
    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2752)
    Quote Originally Posted by TheFraggernaut (#2750)
    Who do you think is possibly a deep wolf?
    gth? sonrio
    Do you think out of Sorino & BK that they're the wolf?
    that is my gth answer but im wondering if im just doing my thing of defaulting to being suspicious of sonrio when i dont see any other obvious targets

    ive felt that youve been p evasive about your read on me - you asked if i was "outing" as a wolf early when i voted for you, and youve answered questions about your read on me with: "other people have SPF as locktown". do you have me as town? ~am~ i town??
    I mean I've said you was town. It was a reaction test and you passed.

  9. ISO #2759
    @Cemeteries would you say youre more of a busser, a powerwolf, somewhere in between (but leaning one way or the other)?

    @c4e5g3d5 same question

  10. ISO #2760
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonrio (#2757)
    me? a deep wolf? girl
    who is the scumteam

  11. ISO #2761
    Automatic Game Mod Mafia Host's Avatar
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    Cemeteries Mountainous Arson Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 c4e5g3d5 Cemeteries (48), EllieD (25), BlueKang (21)
    2 EllieD c4e5g3d5 (38), Wisdom (11)
    2 TheFraggernaut staypositivefriend (46), Gira (15)
    1 Sonrio Rue (13)
    3 Not voting Sonrio (19), MFitz (34), TheFraggernaut (37)


    View Vote History

    End day at majority is enabled. With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to reach majority.

    Day 3 ends at 9:00 PM EST on Tuesday, March 9th, 2021. There are 1615341660000 remaining.

    Posted at 0 days, 20 hours, 49 minutes, 56 seconds remaining.

  12. ISO #2762
    Wants It More Cemeteries's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MFitz (#2759)
    @Cemeteries would you say youre more of a busser, a powerwolf, somewhere in between (but leaning one way or the other)?

    @c4e5g3d5 same question
    hi i’m here to answer this one question and then disappear into the void of sleep

    it really depends on the situation. I’ve wolfed only once since my return from hiatus and I guess I would classify my play more as a busser. I $%#!ing buried both of my scummates to go deep but that’s because they weren’t interested in playing the game and had other commitments. I get too scared of appearing scummy whenever I’m defending scummates so I generally prefer to not take hard stances on them unless it’s a scum lean and they’re going down anyways.

    The fear is what gets me. I fear I’ll be scum read from interactions with partners. I can only control myself so I wolf better when I’m alone.

    As town I’m more like.. $%#! all idc if this gets me scumread i’m going to do it because I believe it. So ironically I become more of a consensus townread when i’m scum and a scum read as i’m town.

  13. ISO #2763
    Thread Analyst Gira's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cemeteries (#2681)
    anyways i hate how dead the thread is today despite having a bunch of wagons. It makes me feel like wolves are comfortable with the game state.

    Plus I believe Ellie is more likely to be a villager and that the scum team is exactly c4/Wisdom/Marl.

    I’ll eat my hat if it isn’t.
    meh some loss of energy as the game goes on is inevitable, i find myself without a clear obvious thing to do and i've been waiting on other people

    Quote Originally Posted by Sonrio (#2689)
    Quote Originally Posted by Cemeteries (#2680)
    Quote Originally Posted by Sonrio (#2676)
    Still think the Schweppes townflip means Cem is scum tho. Him pushing on her d2 probably led to him being doused
    Based on NK analysis I’m pretty sure Schweppes was doused N1.. what makes you believe otherwise?
    what makes you think Schweppes was doused n1??? you think Psycho was doused n2?
    he was undoubtedly doused n1 because his credibility took a hit day 2 and no one decides to nk him after how he approached the marl wagon

    (funny enough, i decided overnight that marl's approach to him made him more likely town, sad day)

  14. ISO #2764
    Thread Analyst Gira's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheFraggernaut (#2715)
    Quote Originally Posted by Cemeteries (#2713)
    Quote Originally Posted by MFitz (#2711)
    holistically i think theres probably exactly one in that pair

    partly from gamestate but also partly because the two of them just dont show any signs of reevaling on each other, its always just been doubling down and continued attacks. even in the worst v/v thunderdomes if they go on long enough you can kind of see where one of them has the revelation/doubt that they might be wrong and this just hasnt been present here, at least not that i can detect
    tbf
    whenever I start to have doubts c4 just insults me again and then im like no
    he is scum
    Which probably means he's actually town.
    meh towny post esp given frag was positioned to be able to push c4 based on yesterday. i agree with the sentiment unfortunately, feels more an emotional tunnel than anything scum based, some can fake that thing, c4 doesn't seem like that type of player. meh.

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueKang (#2716)
    Quote Originally Posted by Sonrio (#2703)
    why do you TR Ellie off her day 1? she had nothing notable there and disappeared
    Same reason, seems confident that she's not gonna get voted off ever. Like in a response to Psycho putting her as a scumread early she says something along the lines of "You have no evidence, maybe I should do something scummy." That seems like it's in the mindset of a confident town player.
    that...isn't a towntell. people were writing off marl for the same reason. it's not good.

    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2741)
    i feel like a class traitor
    no it just means you're a worker lol

  15. ISO #2765
    Thread Analyst Gira's Avatar
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    ##Vote BlueKang

    frag got better, always had him and c4 toward the back of my poe b/c on individual merits they looked better, just had doubts after the flip but continued posting from them again moves toward the town side

    blue's vote on marl, positionally, looks like a bus vote, movement there looks like a bus vote, don't really love the c4 vote, scumhunting today feels shallow, on a reread not great

  16. ISO #2766
    Thread Analyst Gira's Avatar
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    the constant snipes from c4 toward cemetaries in particular feel like a bitter townie who's accepted he might be going down and is attacking the person he feels is scum, not scum in survival mode trying to swing the vote onto someone else, or scum who's given up. don't wanna get too deep in the differences but yeah

  17. ISO #2767
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gira (#2765)
    ##Vote BlueKang

    frag got better, always had him and c4 toward the back of my poe b/c on individual merits they looked better, just had doubts after the flip but continued posting from them again moves toward the town side

    blue's vote on marl, positionally, looks like a bus vote, movement there looks like a bus vote, don't really love the c4 vote, scumhunting today feels shallow, on a reread not great
    ive been increasingly worried about blue today. (particularly his push on c4). i'm more than happy w/pressure on him, especially because his interactions with marl make me feel uneasy, and because i know he can towntell really well when under pressure

  18. ISO #2768
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    i agree that c4 isn't really in any type of meaningful self-preservation mode. i still think he's more likely to be town than not, in spite of his interactions with marl being bad

    the main reason im concerned about cemeteries is because her play more accurately fits how i would expect scum to approach a marl wagon - siphoning votes off of the marl wagon while still shading him and constantly statingher suspicions of him

  19. ISO #2769
    Thread Analyst Gira's Avatar
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    still think cem is prob town but see your concerns

    do you have thoughts on frag's posting on the last page?

  20. ISO #2770
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gira (#2769)
    still think cem is prob town but see your concerns

    do you have thoughts on frag's posting on the last page?
    theyre towny enough for me to not really want to chop him today

  21. ISO #2771
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    ellie might actually be the best chop for a lot of reasons

    i dont know, ill think it over tomorrow

  22. ISO #2772
    Thread Analyst Gira's Avatar
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    gOtTa ReSoLvE tHe WaGoNs

  23. ISO #2773
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gira (#2772)
    gOtTa ReSoLvE tHe WaGoNs
    do u think the poe of c4/cem/ellie could have all villagers? if so, what do you think that means for the gamestate?

  24. ISO #2774
    Bandwagoner BlueKang's Avatar
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    I wasn't going to mention it but since SPF said it, C4 kinda ignored my vote on him. Was wondering how he'd react to it.

  25. ISO #2775
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EllieD (#2631)
    this feels w/w to me. idk what's the status of people's reads on these two but I'd love to know. I'll iso 'em for now though
    -in spite of showing no evidence of having read through the entire game, ellieD still has reads that align eerily with the consensus - immediately placing the two people in the immediate POE with her as partners

    -ellieD mentioned that she felt that c4/cem could be partners early in the game - (it was the first read she outed) this makes the fact that she came into today echo'ing the same read a little more concerning for me. i thought ellieD's read on cem/c4 today was at least original, but she's actually just echo'ing the same read she echo'd well over 72 hours ago now

    @EllieD - if you're town then i really really need you to provide as many thoughts as you possibly can. i see no evidence of solving or genuine parsing of other peoples alignments in your ISO. i have no idea what you think about sonrio even though you've been focused on asking people questions about him.

  26. ISO #2776
    Soul Reader staypositivefriend's Avatar
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    ##Vote EllieD

    putting my money where my mouth is. i will unvote if ellie provides us with takes and reads that aren't verbatim the same reads that she outed at the beginning of d1

  27. ISO #2777
    Thread Analyst Gira's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2773)
    Quote Originally Posted by Gira (#2772)
    gOtTa ReSoLvE tHe WaGoNs
    do u think the poe of c4/cem/ellie could have all villagers? if so, what do you think that means for the gamestate?
    idk lmao. that would be surprising if only b/c i think there's 1 tops in sonrio/blue based on marl's poe and outside that is like...frag? idk

    also gamestates arent real

    Quote Originally Posted by staypositivefriend (#2775)
    -ellieD mentioned that she felt that c4/cem could be partners early in the game - (it was the first read she outed) this makes the fact that she came into today echo'ing the same read a little more concerning for me. i thought ellieD's read on cem/c4 today was at least original, but she's actually just echo'ing the same read she echo'd well over 72 hours ago now
    that's a good catch actually, i hadn't realized it was just her outing the same read from early in the game verbatim, really don't like the lack of re-evaluation or attempting to look elsewhere, just looks like forcing a case

  28. ISO #2778
    Soul Reader TheFraggernaut's Avatar
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    Out of the two wagons currently I have intent to vote EllieD. Just being careful with 19 hours left in the day that it's not hammered. Remember majority is 6 votes today.

  29. ISO #2779
    Wielder of the Triforce Wisdom's Avatar
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    Is it more likely for me to vanity wagon as wolf or as town? I dunno about my wolf games but I sure tend to do it as town when I go to sleep 5 hours before EoD and have a wolf read.

    Still think Ellie is wolfing, and her flipping w would make me look better so I'm also hoping for that.

    Wanna sheep C4 and Rue until I die.

    Mfitz is still town, Frag and spf likely so as well.

    Don't wanna push Cem today mostly because of their brawl yesterday seemed v/v with c4 and think them pushing me is a good look.

    All wolves in 《Ellie, Sonrio, BK, Gira》

  30. ISO #2780
    Bandwagoner BlueKang's Avatar
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    ##Unvote c4e5g3d5

  31. ISO #2781
    Automatic Game Mod Mafia Host's Avatar
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    Cemeteries Mountainous Arson Day 3 Votecount

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    3 EllieD c4e5g3d5 (38), Wisdom (12), staypositivefriend (53)
    2 c4e5g3d5 Cemeteries (49), EllieD (25)
    1 Sonrio Rue (13)
    1 BlueKang Gira (22)
    4 Not voting Sonrio (19), MFitz (34), TheFraggernaut (38), BlueKang (23)


    View Vote History

    End day at majority is enabled. With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to reach majority.

    Day 3 ends at 9:00 PM EST on Tuesday, March 9th, 2021. There are 1615341660000 remaining.

    Posted at 0 days, 16 hours, 48 minutes, 59 seconds remaining.

  32. ISO #2782
    Thread Analyst Sonrio's Avatar
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    ##Vote BlueKang

    i want some pressure here. im not convinced on Ellie based off her play today, but im interested in why people think shes the best vote (SPF?)
    ive def fallen off in play so far but its not cuz im demotivated. just a bit lazy after a busy weekend

  33. ISO #2783
    Wielder of the Triforce Wisdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marluxion (#902)
    Quote Originally Posted by Cemeteries (#713)
    Agree with Ellie being a distraction. Disagree with MFitz.
    i echo this 100%
    ellie made a single derpy post, mfitz is actually wolfy
    Hmm would the wolf team really gather up to protect one of their wolf teams this early on?

    Seems a bit unlikely.

    Probably not Cem+Ellie then.

    Actually looks more like Marl is latching onto town!Cem for defending a wolf.

  34. ISO #2784
    Thread Analyst Sonrio's Avatar
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    wait thats actually a rly good post to look at for maf!ellie lol wisdom dont downplay it

  35. ISO #2785
    Wielder of the Triforce Wisdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marluxion (#270)
    Wisdom Ceme and Frag are town
    I want to rule of three this but I actually think everyone here is towning.

  36. ISO #2786
    Wielder of the Triforce Wisdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonrio (#2784)
    wait thats actually a rly good post to look at for maf!ellie lol wisdom dont downplay it
    How did I downplay it? x)

  37. ISO #2787
    Wielder of the Triforce Wisdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EllieD (#248)
    checking in and im wondering if im going to make the same mistake i always do and get offended and tunnel the first person who scum reads me, hmmm🤔

    anyways, I dont think psycho has enough evidence and i think him(gonna guess pronouns here)saying he's down to just support top wagon is sus.

    i need to read back through and look at the rest of the thread for anything else.
    Quote Originally Posted by EllieD (#474)
    oh also, some little meta here. Cem asked Esooa to run this game right? Kinda seems to me you wouldnt do that unless you wanted to be arson, and would then ask to be rolled that. But IDK 🤷♀️ I'm not going to vote for her D1 because she's hype for this game so Ill vote for their possible partner for now.
    ##Vote c4e5g3d5
    Two very wolfy posts. I don't get why people called her d1 towny, she was more active than d2 but she didn't do much solving.

  38. ISO #2788
    Wielder of the Triforce Wisdom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonrio (#2784)
    wait thats actually a rly good post to look at for maf!ellie lol wisdom dont downplay it
    Also this is never a w/w Sonrio/Ellie post. But if Ellie flips v I'd look further into Sonrio, as it could be intentionally adding fuel to my tunnel on Ellie.

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