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Thread: Season 8, Semifinals 3: Yo ho! A Mafia's life for me (The Mafia Championship)

  1. ISO #9151
    Most Likely Asleep Secondhand Revenant's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9127)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9124)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9122)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9116)
    Think I've got a plan ready.

    In the meantime from everybody.

    GTH 2 mafia names without reading plz.
    you jpic
    Can't say I'm awfully surprised. Why exactly?
    You said "without reading" and without reading I'm forced to rely on my previous belief that SR/TSF's voteswaps at EoD3 just come from town.

    insert quote about eliminating the impossible and all that
    Level of confidence in that world aside from the gth stuff and like if there's enough it seems worthwhile, sell me on how it works in your head?

  2. ISO #9152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9139)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9134)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9127)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9124)
    Can't say I'm awfully surprised. Why exactly?
    You said "without reading" and without reading I'm forced to rely on my previous belief that SR/TSF's voteswaps at EoD3 just come from town.

    insert quote about eliminating the impossible and all that
    Find it quite hard to believe that "without reading" means you're inclined to ignore everything you've largely said about me not being partners with Pilica tbh.

    If I die d3, who dies d4 in your opinion?
    Actually, this might be a perspective slip even. The only world in which you put stock into SR/TSF being town for the vote switch is if they are voting mafia!Pilica over town!Holyflare, which given the team you mention you shouldn't be putting much stock into.

    Unless you're implying if one of them was mafia and I was mafia then they'd try and divert somewhere else?
    Nah, you're right, I underthought this. Such is the nature of asking for a snap gutread.

  3. ISO #9153
    あんた ばか Ampharos's Avatar Administrator
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    Honestly, the more I turn it over in my head, the more I think I'm wasting my time trying over and over again to parse the same 8 seconds of the same day.

    Like, maybe it's Holyflare + one of the voteswaps, and Pilica was bussed because Holyflare suddenly decided he wanted to play. Maybe it's BOTH of the voteswaps, and they bussed Pilica for the hell of it to go deep. Maybe JPIC's in there. Who knows? Not me. The voteswaps are identical. Holyflare looks like he was playing against wincon either way. JPIC is awol. It's simultaneously pivotal and inscrutable, and I don't know how else I can attack the problem.

    I do wanna ask @Justplayingitcool about his EoD3 mindset, but otherwise I'm looking elsewhere unless anyone has a compelling reason that I shouldn't.

  4. ISO #9154
    あんた ばか Ampharos's Avatar Administrator
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    jpic/sr
    jpic/holyflare
    jpic/tsf
    sr/holyflare
    sr/tsf
    holyflare/tsf

    Those are the 6 possible combinations. I'm going to stare at words until I can no longer stay awake.

  5. ISO #9155
    あんた ばか Ampharos's Avatar Administrator
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    why the $%#! is esooa dead lol

    she had no wolfreads past superjack

  6. ISO #9156
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    I don't think it was particularly against win-con. Consider that I really thought Esooa was just mafia and that me flipping would get people to re-evaluate her and also that I was just completely tired of having to work/ogi stuff and split my attention to being present 24/7 just to get called mafia for having reads.

    I'd like you to answer my questions on the previous page if you can thanks. Same for you @Justplayingitcool

  7. ISO #9157
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    This post is a scattershot assortment of musings. It serves no real purpose except to help me organize my thoughts, and perhaps to elucidate my process for others.

    ---

    For me to believe JPIC is a wolf, I have to believe he's either exactly with SR or that he was being bussed yesterday, despite TSF being stringently anti-bus and vocally saying that he thinks bussing JPIC yesterday would have been a terrible play. This in spite of at least one interaction between SR-JPIC that I still think looks pretty unaligned. I also have to think the Pilica masonry thing was w/w.

    For me to believe that Holyflare is a wolf, I have to believe that the selfvote thing was either a wolf gambit or a legitimate attempt to get the $%#! out of the game; the latter I want to believe just isn't true, and the former is super weird given the fact that he also put Pilica to L-1 at one point during the EoD.
    I also have to believe that he intentionally made up a pretty angly read on Justin and used it both to shade him and make himself look better; this is a point that I consistently forget about in the moment and then remember again when I take the time to think, but it's one of the reasons I started townreading him so hard to begin with. I'll say that if Holyflare DID do this as a wolf... I'll just leave it at "I disagree with the decision to do so and would not have done the same."


    For me to believe that SR is a wolf, I have to believe that Pilica chose to distance from SR in the exact opposite manner from how she chose to distance from Beaker in quals - namely, by largely ignoring him. I also have to believe that SR committed to bussing Pilica basically as soon as the ejji wagon stopped being viable; if my clear on Holy is correct, he did this even despite a village counterwagon being present. In fact - and this is a point that legitimately just occurred to me - neither SR nor TSF seized on the SuperJack wagon, which we KNOW flipped town and which we KNOW was viable enough that it could have feasibly overtaken Pilica at one point - so yeah, there was a degree of "pushed a wolf over a villager" regardless of Holyflare's alignment.

    For TSF to be a wolf, I have to believe that the most villagery player of the past several phases is a wolf. I have to believe he went against everything he's been preaching in the thread and bussed Pilica when other options were feasibly available - again, regardless of Holyflare's alignment. I have to believe that I suck at mafia [not a hard sell, to be fair].

    In conclusion, mafia is hard.

    ---

    Who kills Esooa?

    The Esooa flip is one that breaks my previously established worldview in p#8803. It forces me into a full reevaluation. The obvious beneficiary of this is JPIC, who is now less likely to get voted for PoE reasons; there's a very good argument, however, that the opportunity cost isn't worth it, because now you have both TSF and Holyflare alive, and both of them voted JPIC yesterday, and even if one of them is JPIC's partner you can still kill the other one.

    A team that wants to shake confidence in TSF's threadspewed status kills Esooa. TSF himself also probably kills Esooa. Figuring out which one of these is true is complete WIFOM.

    Esooa literally had no wolfreads outside of SJ. She thought JPIC was the least towny player, but she still asserted that she thought he was towny. She was a complete wild-

    Oh. That's why she died. We continue to glean literally no information from the nightkills. There are no clears, no suspects. We live in purgatory.

    ---

    My initial impulse is that I cannot clear TSF/JPIC from being a team, because as much as I want to accept TSF's premise that he would never bus JPIC in that slot, the premise is invalidated by any world in which TSF is a wolf, because it requires him to have bussed Pilica. In a TSF/JPIC world specifically, he bussed Pilica as a deliberate act, and then played up his anti-bussing stance in order to get cred off the JPIC vote.

    That said... it would have had to have been a deliberate choice, because with TSF's constricted EoD availability there was no real way for him to control whether it was a bus or merely a distance. And I think for someone in TSF's spot specifically, globally townread by the entire thread, bussing your partner is stupid, solely because then you SHOULD be locking yourself in as someone who dies to nightkill before F3. He'd be setting himself up for failure.

    So, yeah, maybe this team isn't a thing. One down. Two, if I assume Holyflare wouldn't bus for the same reason.

    The interaction SR had with JPIC would make 3. For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to accept it at face value for now.

    4 would be an interaction I can recall from EoD1, between Holyflare and TSF; namely, when TSF was trying to hard shield levi. Holyflare asked if TSF would be willing to eat rope in exchange for his reads being sheeped, to which TSF wrote a very long "$%#! no". I cannot fathom thinking up this interaction as wolf partners, not in the specific way that it manifested. Doesn't prevent TSF and Holy from being better at theater than me, but it's fine for this specific exercise.

    The two teams left become SR/Holy and SR/TSF. SR becomes my best worlds vote. EoD is either a double bus or a "Pilica dying is better than Holy dying", both after having previously spurned a viable SuperJack wagon. If there are concrete reasons to exclude either of these teams, I'm unaware of them. The problem is that Holyflare feels like a villager, and TSF feels like a villager, and both these feelings are difficult to shake, which means I'm either misclearing them or I'm misclearing a team somewhere.

    ---

    @Secondhand Revenant, on a scale of 1-10, how invested would you say you are in this game right now?

  8. ISO #9158
    Most Likely Asleep Secondhand Revenant's Avatar
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    Question at top of page irrelevant now I suppose?

    Anyways, idk how to pin it exactly. I'm incredibly anxious about it and it's become not fun to the point I don't think I feel like playing mafia much for a while again after this. I don't feel like I can particularly not pay attention to it either, despite not having to look at game during night couldn't shake off feeling I should be doing something but needed break. Also can't bring myself to dig through ISOs rn and concentrate on that. Ig level of investment is like a 4 while space its taking up in my head is like at 8

  9. ISO #9159
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9155)
    why the $%#! is esooa dead lol

    she had no wolfreads past superjack
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9102)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9037)
    holy do you have any thoughts about esooa's death
    apologies if you already said something
    Most I can think of is that she literally just town cleared me and mafia didn't want that option shut down because I don't think she voiced any real suspicion other than sj and maybe sj with jpic but I don't remember if she seemed clear on jpic or not. Suppose I should check.
    I wrote a whole long wall here exploring pretty much every option but I've just deleted it in favour of saying $%#! nk wifom it's useless.

  10. ISO #9160
    Most Likely Asleep Secondhand Revenant's Avatar
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    I also don't feel like trying to remember the thoughts I had yday and before hf. If you have specific questions shoot but I didn't have some plan for how to probe people on stuff, I did it in the moment when they were around and tried talking to them

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    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secondhand Revenant (#9158)
    Question at top of page irrelevant now I suppose?

    Anyways, idk how to pin it exactly. I'm incredibly anxious about it and it's become not fun to the point I don't think I feel like playing mafia much for a while again after this. I don't feel like I can particularly not pay attention to it either, despite not having to look at game during night couldn't shake off feeling I should be doing something but needed break. Also can't bring myself to dig through ISOs rn and concentrate on that. Ig level of investment is like a 4 while space its taking up in my head is like at 8
    This is a huge mood. I opened up your ISO and it's like 1000 posts and my motivation just becomes 0 to do anything with it. So I'm in favour of real time interacting and throwing back and forth reads at each other and riffing to see if we can catch someone out.

  12. ISO #9162
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    Maybe we should town case ourselves and see how it goes

  13. ISO #9163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9162)
    Maybe we should town case ourselves and see how it goes
    Entire case sounds hard. Things idt I'd do as a wolf probably have a few thoughts. Concept tends to feel lame to me tho. I almost never believe anyone else on these things

  14. ISO #9164
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    I'm also up for order voting whenever (obv want to extend that as long as possible) because I am pretty sure jpic flips mafia here and at the very least another NK would go a long way to helping solve (insane bias that I want to be killed )

  15. ISO #9165
    あんた ばか Ampharos's Avatar Administrator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9156)
    I don't think it was particularly against win-con. Consider that I really thought Esooa was just mafia and that me flipping would get people to re-evaluate her and also that I was just completely tired of having to work/ogi stuff and split my attention to being present 24/7 just to get called mafia for having reads.

    I'd like you to answer my questions on the previous page if you can thanks. Same for you @Justplayingitcool
    I think it certainly would have been against wincon as a wolf, assuming your intent to die was sincere.

    I also, broadly speaking, take issue with people attempting to self-vote and suicide, but that's more of a me thing than anything else.

    ---

    I think it's fairly evident that starting sometime around D3 I started wolfreading ejji, primarily because she wasn't ramping into the game like I was led to believe she would as a villager, and was instead flagging like I was led to believe she would as a wolf. The Pilica flip bolstered this belief, initially because I had noted ejji showing up at EoD and attempting to hard swing the vote off of Pilica and onto myself - and though her target eventually changed to SR, she had started with the confirmed villager in the pair, and I townread SR at the time anyways.

    In verifying Wisdom's interactions chart, and in rereading parts of Pilica's ISO, I could find no reason why she couldn't be partnered with ejji. In reading ejji's ISO, I found plenty of reasons why she could be partnered with Pilica - hence that big dumb wallpost I did on the matter. Her 0-posting didn't help, and by the time she DID show up she only moved the needle enough for my stomach to do some kickflips as the timer ticked down.

    ---

    At the same time as the above was developing, I was in the process of drinking the SJ wolf koolaid.

    I thought SJ's EoD3 felt bad in the moment - enough that I kept my vote on them even amidst the Pilica/Holyflare nonsense (though admittedly this was at least partially spurred by my attention being divided due to IRL factors). I waffled a lot at SoD on whether or not their interactions with Pilica at EoD looked like distancing, but I eventually settled on "yeah, it could be". This of course was bolstered by looking through Pilica and later Justin's ISO, and noting that their interests seemed pretty aligned for pretty much the entirety of D1. In particular, I thought in light of the freewheeling, openwolf-y Pilica flipping W, a world where Justin was openwolfing alongside her seemed attractive.

    The ejji flip largely bolstered this belief - partially because I hadn't done a ton of interactions analysis between ejji and SuperJustin, and thus hadn't based any of my scumread off that particular teambuilding axis, but mostly because I thought everyone else was being villagery and they weren't.

    I spent most of D5 focusing on D4; I felt I hadn't paid enough attention to the actual D4 posting, and instead had been up my $%#! backreading and being wrong about ejji, so I wanted to look over it again with fresh eyes. In the end I'm... not sure it helped a ton. I was primarily looking for difference tells with regards to how people approached the day, trying to find the people who were going against the general thread atmosphere, whether that meant treating ejji as a foregone conclusion or working way too hard to bury her. No such tell manifested, and I was annoyed about it.

    In the end it came down to who was less villagery, and also worlds. I spent a long time trying to figure out if SJ/JPIC was viable, and eventually decided that it was. I wasn't necessarily sure if SJ had a higher chance of flipping red than JPIC at that point, because while JPIC's D4 had been generally better, there were enough weird points in SJ's ISO to give me pause. In the end, I think I just wanted to see the SJ flip because if JPIC flipped green and SJ was still around in LYLO it was going to be MUCH harder to reset and reevaluate than the inverse.

    I pretty much always expected to be alive today. I figured TSF was the most likely kill target regardless of the flip, with an off chance of Holyflare; the only world where I really expected another kill was one where SJ flipped red, in which case I think you could make a strong argument for the Esooa kill. This is mostly to say that I perhaps approached EoD yesterday without too much of a sense of urgency, because I knew I'd almost certainly have today to either build on success or fix the prior day's mistake.

    I probably owed SJ more diligence. That's on me. I think I was thorough on ejji, and don't regret that flip beyond a "sometimes you're just wrong, that's how mafia works" level, but I think I could have dug deeper on SJ.

  16. ISO #9166
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    Past 2 cycles if I ignore the rest of the game:

    Jpic - I think Jpic's posts have been entirely reactionary, not doing much in the way of solving, entirely surface level and also lacking. On the day Ejji was getting killed, it felt like the only thing that happened with Jpic was that he argued with SJ over the misconstruing and then just kinda sat with it. He's capable of these long winded posts explaining himself and pushing things but when it came to actually pushing SJ or writing a case or pointing us towards posts, I think that was just missing.

    When I quizzed him on his reads, they were all entirely based on single instances throughout the game that didn't really hold any water for being that strong later on. In the case that SJ was town and he was town, he should be way more concerned that something is afoot and some people are playing extremely well and so his world views shouldn't make that much sense. I don't think he ever made that connection at all, most likely because it didn't come naturally.

    When Ejji flipped town, the only conclusion he reached after that for the entire 48 hours was that Amy was mafia because of PoE (and that PoE was based on flimsy reasoning still).

    Again, there was no trying to push SJ, no care about going out of his way to get us to vote for his really sure mafia read. No thoughts on trying to figure SJ out. I tried a few times to get them to interact but it was always just talking past each other to me instead of directly so it looked very much like appealing to me instead of possibly having to come around on SJ. I don't think he even voted for SJ until way late.

    The only thing I've been able to glean from his ISO today is that "I don’t think amy is a wolf as of right now though with esooa flip" which... I have no idea how that makes any sense in the slightest? If he thinks Esooa was killed to make his miselim easier, then why does that imply Amy isn't mafia? Plz answer Jpic.

    Will get to the rest in a bit.

  17. ISO #9167
    あんた ばか Ampharos's Avatar Administrator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9162)
    Maybe we should town case ourselves and see how it goes
    Consider me transcribing my entire thought process onto the page to be the closest thing I can reasonably provide to a towncase.

  18. ISO #9168
    あんた ばか Ampharos's Avatar Administrator
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    iunno it's prolly like jpic/sr and i'm just still bad at reading sr even after all these years

    bet there are a lot of amy posts linked in wolfchat if that's the squad

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    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    If I had to pick an order with bias

    Me > TSF > SR > Amy > Jpic

    Probably realistically it's something like

    TSF > Me > Amy > SR > Jpic

    Maybe?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9159)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9155)
    why the $%#! is esooa dead lol

    she had no wolfreads past superjack
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9102)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9037)
    holy do you have any thoughts about esooa's death
    apologies if you already said something
    Most I can think of is that she literally just town cleared me and mafia didn't want that option shut down because I don't think she voiced any real suspicion other than sj and maybe sj with jpic but I don't remember if she seemed clear on jpic or not. Suppose I should check.
    I wrote a whole long wall here exploring pretty much every option but I've just deleted it in favour of saying $%#! nk wifom it's useless.
    I think I've landed on "JPIC does it to shake up the gamestate and distract people from him being the obvious next person on the dunk list" but even for him it's a stupid and wifommy kill.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9169)
    If I had to pick an order with bias

    Me > TSF > SR > Amy > Jpic

    Probably realistically it's something like

    TSF > Me > Amy > SR > Jpic

    Maybe?
    The second one is I think exactly what my proposal would look like (barring the obvious "i should be at the top!!!!!").

    I'm unsure what the consensus is on me vs. SR, but I'm also unsure how much it matters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Secondhand Revenant (#9158)
    Question at top of page irrelevant now I suppose?

    Anyways, idk how to pin it exactly. I'm incredibly anxious about it and it's become not fun to the point I don't think I feel like playing mafia much for a while again after this. I don't feel like I can particularly not pay attention to it either, despite not having to look at game during night couldn't shake off feeling I should be doing something but needed break. Also can't bring myself to dig through ISOs rn and concentrate on that. Ig level of investment is like a 4 while space its taking up in my head is like at 8
    I'm gonna be mean for 2 seconds.

    It's F5 of champs semis. The playerlist at large has poured an absolutely ridiculous amount of effort into this game. I'm forcing myself to step up despite the fact that I don't really want to be here, because even beyond wanting to win, I refuse to be the reason that town loses.

    If you're town, I ask for somewhere between 0.5-1.5 day phases where the investment matches the mental occupation, because the fact that you're still kind of spinning your wheels is noticeable.

    I consistently tell anyone who asks that you're a better player than me. Prove it.

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    @Holyflare

    In a hypothetical world where TSF is a wolf, who are his viable partners?

    This question brought to you by some combination of paranoia that I haven't dug deeply enough into TSF and the fact that at the end of the day I don't want to have been wrong on SR for the entire game.

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    flashbacks to me offering to towncase SR and jpic being the one to take me up on it

    anyways, good night

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    I'll probably wake up tomorrow fairly comfy in the "oops sr is a wolf world" i just need to finish up with the 5 stages of grief here

    p#9172 as anger and p#9173 as bargaining maps pretty well

    for denial, see: the rest of the game
    for depression, see: you are here

  26. ISO #9176
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9153)
    Honestly, the more I turn it over in my head, the more I think I'm wasting my time trying over and over again to parse the same 8 seconds of the same day.

    Like, maybe it's Holyflare + one of the voteswaps, and Pilica was bussed because Holyflare suddenly decided he wanted to play. Maybe it's BOTH of the voteswaps, and they bussed Pilica for the hell of it to go deep. Maybe JPIC's in there. Who knows? Not me. The voteswaps are identical. Holyflare looks like he was playing against wincon either way. JPIC is awol. It's simultaneously pivotal and inscrutable, and I don't know how else I can attack the problem.

    I do wanna ask @Justplayingitcool about his EoD3 mindset, but otherwise I'm looking elsewhere unless anyone has a compelling reason that I shouldn't.
    what do you want to know

  27. ISO #9177
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9082)
    ...I just realized something.

    @Justplayingitcool there MUST be at least one wolf in your Group A from yesterday; you and I are the only players who neither voteswapped to nor were voted by Pilica at EoD yesterday.

    There's a bus somewhere in there.
    I am aware there is a wolf in group A


    Asking the room, is holy/amy possible? I think I had a reason for ruling that out but ngl i don't even remember why I felt that

  28. ISO #9178
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9166)
    Past 2 cycles if I ignore the rest of the game:

    Jpic - I think Jpic's posts have been entirely reactionary, not doing much in the way of solving, entirely surface level and also lacking. On the day Ejji was getting killed, it felt like the only thing that happened with Jpic was that he argued with SJ over the misconstruing and then just kinda sat with it. He's capable of these long winded posts explaining himself and pushing things but when it came to actually pushing SJ or writing a case or pointing us towards posts, I think that was just missing.

    When I quizzed him on his reads, they were all entirely based on single instances throughout the game that didn't really hold any water for being that strong later on. In the case that SJ was town and he was town, he should be way more concerned that something is afoot and some people are playing extremely well and so his world views shouldn't make that much sense. I don't think he ever made that connection at all, most likely because it didn't come naturally.

    When Ejji flipped town, the only conclusion he reached after that for the entire 48 hours was that Amy was mafia because of PoE (and that PoE was based on flimsy reasoning still).

    Again, there was no trying to push SJ, no care about going out of his way to get us to vote for his really sure mafia read. No thoughts on trying to figure SJ out. I tried a few times to get them to interact but it was always just talking past each other to me instead of directly so it looked very much like appealing to me instead of possibly having to come around on SJ. I don't think he even voted for SJ until way late.

    The only thing I've been able to glean from his ISO today is that "I don’t think amy is a wolf as of right now though with esooa flip" which... I have no idea how that makes any sense in the slightest? If he thinks Esooa was killed to make his miselim easier, then why does that imply Amy isn't mafia? Plz answer Jpic.

    Will get to the rest in a bit.
    Because I thought Amy only made sense with esooa so that threw me a loop. I still don't think Amy is aligned with SR/TSF

    can't remember why I had you and amy as not aligned with pilica

  29. ISO #9179
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9156)
    I don't think it was particularly against win-con. Consider that I really thought Esooa was just mafia and that me flipping would get people to re-evaluate her and also that I was just completely tired of having to work/ogi stuff and split my attention to being present 24/7 just to get called mafia for having reads.

    I'd like you to answer my questions on the previous page if you can thanks. Same for you @Justplayingitcool
    what was the question

  30. ISO #9180
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9179)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9156)
    I don't think it was particularly against win-con. Consider that I really thought Esooa was just mafia and that me flipping would get people to re-evaluate her and also that I was just completely tired of having to work/ogi stuff and split my attention to being present 24/7 just to get called mafia for having reads.

    I'd like you to answer my questions on the previous page if you can thanks. Same for you @Justplayingitcool
    what was the question
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9133)
    Same goes for everyone really. It felt very much like nobody cared if jpic or sj flipped yesterday instead of talking to them so I'd like to know what you did to process their alignments and how you reached a conclusion and why.
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9132)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9129)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9128)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9125)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9123)
    I think not replying with at least a gut read team seems pretty opportunistic
    I don't have one and I'm not going to make one any faster or slower because you want one right now, this minute. I'm going to take my time making sure that I'm caring about the right things, maybe read JPIC's quals ISO, stuff like that.
    if you think I'm doing it as a wolf trying to be opportunistic, I'm not going to stop you other than to say that I could reasonably conclude, or maybe even tell that you probably would have preferred for me to answer than not answer the question, and I told you that I'm not answering it anyways

    if that's all it took for you to want to vote me, then that's all it took for you to want to vote me
    I think you've had enough time in this game and enough worlds posted that off the top of your head you could come up with something no matter how much you don't particularly have any fatith in it.

    It's also not just that tbh. With Esooa dying and your interactions with her yesterday pretty much trying to downplay her town reading me, I think it kinda fits that you'd try and leave things open ended to see where the wind blows if you were mafia.

    Am I resetting everything and getting a proper read through of the game to re-evaulate? Sure. But I can at least have cursory thoughts on the game state to have an idea of a team comp.
    yes, I could come up with something.
    I'm not going to.

    Esooa admitted that she could just be misreading small stuff, and I don't remember a ton of the exact stuff she was saying, but I found it very unpersuasive at the time, and on someone who I may or may not have had in my poe at the time? You weren't my top town or the 2nd is what I think I said at the time. I feel like I let her have the townread, just told her that I didn't follow it at all and found it not persuasive.

    Without going back and reviewing it, I imagine I would still feel the same way about it.
    Okay, well let's try this. Can you give me a rundown of your thought process from the last 2 cycles and what you did to try and figure things out and solve? Maybe some town reads you built up along the way and why.

  31. ISO #9181
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9177)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9082)
    ...I just realized something.

    @Justplayingitcool there MUST be at least one wolf in your Group A from yesterday; you and I are the only players who neither voteswapped to nor were voted by Pilica at EoD yesterday.

    There's a bus somewhere in there.
    I am aware there is a wolf in group A


    Asking the room, is holy/amy possible? I think I had a reason for ruling that out but ngl i don't even remember why I felt that
    If I'm a wolf with Amy then what's the eod 3 plan there? Suicide and Amy just sits there? I've also probably ISOd Amy the most of anyone the entire game to get a better read on her. Not that that means anything from a partner perspective, but at the very least I've been trying to figure her out and I don't think I'd needlessly draw attention to her if I could avoid it.

    There's also the fact that I'm just not mafia, but I don't expect you to buy into that one as easily

    Do you have any opinions about anything we're talking about???? Really feels like you just drop in now and again to halfheartedly reply with a one liner and leave.

  32. ISO #9182
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9173)
    @Holyflare

    In a hypothetical world where TSF is a wolf, who are his viable partners?

    This question brought to you by some combination of paranoia that I haven't dug deeply enough into TSF and the fact that at the end of the day I don't want to have been wrong on SR for the entire game.
    TSF/Jpic - He'd need to have needlessly jumped on a Jpic wagon eod2 (which, sure, you can argue wasn't very likely to happen, but I'd argue it very much could have happened) to then end eod3 bussing another partner over just killing me, when he basically had good reason to (at least he kept spamming about it). I think if he was mafia with jpic, he also doesn't end yesterday bussing jpic again. If Jpic flips, then I probably die tonight, maybe miselim someone today and then he'd have to explain why he's alive again after the next nk which becomes increasingly hard to do. Think he really just ends on SJ if he's partners here.

    TSF/you
    TSF/SR

    I honestly have no good reason he couldn't be with either you or SR off the top of my head but I'm probably forgetting some pivotal thread moment that makes it unlikely. Probably means I should ISO him I guess but.... meh I just think he's pretty townie tbh. Guess I should give it some due diligence though.

  33. ISO #9183
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    SR ISO time. Someone talk to me so it doesn't feel like an absolute chore plz.

  34. ISO #9184
    Soul Reader Holyflare's Avatar
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    Timezones... why do they exist...

  35. ISO #9185
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9180)
    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9179)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9156)
    I don't think it was particularly against win-con. Consider that I really thought Esooa was just mafia and that me flipping would get people to re-evaluate her and also that I was just completely tired of having to work/ogi stuff and split my attention to being present 24/7 just to get called mafia for having reads.

    I'd like you to answer my questions on the previous page if you can thanks. Same for you @Justplayingitcool
    what was the question
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9133)
    Same goes for everyone really. It felt very much like nobody cared if jpic or sj flipped yesterday instead of talking to them so I'd like to know what you did to process their alignments and how you reached a conclusion and why.
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9132)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9129)
    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9128)
    I think you've had enough time in this game and enough worlds posted that off the top of your head you could come up with something no matter how much you don't particularly have any fatith in it.

    It's also not just that tbh. With Esooa dying and your interactions with her yesterday pretty much trying to downplay her town reading me, I think it kinda fits that you'd try and leave things open ended to see where the wind blows if you were mafia.

    Am I resetting everything and getting a proper read through of the game to re-evaulate? Sure. But I can at least have cursory thoughts on the game state to have an idea of a team comp.
    yes, I could come up with something.
    I'm not going to.

    Esooa admitted that she could just be misreading small stuff, and I don't remember a ton of the exact stuff she was saying, but I found it very unpersuasive at the time, and on someone who I may or may not have had in my poe at the time? You weren't my top town or the 2nd is what I think I said at the time. I feel like I let her have the townread, just told her that I didn't follow it at all and found it not persuasive.

    Without going back and reviewing it, I imagine I would still feel the same way about it.
    Okay, well let's try this. Can you give me a rundown of your thought process from the last 2 cycles and what you did to try and figure things out and solve? Maybe some town reads you built up along the way and why.


    Not sure how you want me to answer the first one, but I think said in the last day phase it felt like nobody gave a $%#! when it was between me and SJ as the potential lynch options. I was even coming around to them being town because of it, unfortunately, jack refused to work with me so I was left with pretty much no option to have them yeeted over myself

    I think my thought process has been pretty evident in the thread the last two phases.

    Day 4, I was townreading SR for the vote switch unless they're partnered with you exactly. I felt TSF/Esooa were individually towny,

    I felt Amy was unlikely to be a wolf from the pilica stuff.

    I felt I agreed with TSF in how you were unlikely to be a wolf when you voted yourself up

    That left me with Jack and ejji. A poe of two people

    Day 5, ejji flipped town and I was still townreading SR from the vote switch and had an individual townread on TSF

    My townread on TSF was stronger than Amy/Esooa so I had them moved in the PoE because I was scumreading Jack still at that point, and I felt Amy fitted well with them. But I also felt Amy fitted with esooa as well, which is why I was keener on pushing Amy in the thread than Jack. I didn't really think Amy was too scummy apart from a few posts EoD5 which had me frying for most of it.

    Why are you asking me to rundown my thought process again when I have been over this before?

  36. ISO #9186
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holyflare (#9181)
    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9177)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9082)
    ...I just realized something.

    @Justplayingitcool there MUST be at least one wolf in your Group A from yesterday; you and I are the only players who neither voteswapped to nor were voted by Pilica at EoD yesterday.

    There's a bus somewhere in there.
    I am aware there is a wolf in group A


    Asking the room, is holy/amy possible? I think I had a reason for ruling that out but ngl i don't even remember why I felt that
    If I'm a wolf with Amy then what's the eod 3 plan there? Suicide and Amy just sits there? I've also probably ISOd Amy the most of anyone the entire game to get a better read on her. Not that that means anything from a partner perspective, but at the very least I've been trying to figure her out and I don't think I'd needlessly draw attention to her if I could avoid it.

    There's also the fact that I'm just not mafia, but I don't expect you to buy into that one as easily

    Do you have any opinions about anything we're talking about???? Really feels like you just drop in now and again to halfheartedly reply with a one liner and leave.
    If you're talking about today with my "drop in now and again" then I have had to sleep and work, which takes more importance.

    And thanks for the first paragraph, I think that was pretty much where I was in terms of partners. I don't feel like you ISO'ing them a lot is compelling in lylo because as I've mentioned before that I did that a few times with Pawn in my qualifier. Having said that, theoretically if you were partners what was Amy supposed to do? You and pilica were both wagons at EoD3 so it's not like she could have done anything else but vote and sit on SuperJack.

  37. ISO #9187
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    If TSF/SR are wolves then they decided to simultaneously bus pilica at the same time so there was likely coordination on that front. I think that team is just sooooooo unlikely when the juicy holy yeet was up for grabs

  38. ISO #9188
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#9174)
    flashbacks to me offering to towncase SR and jpic being the one to take me up on it

    anyways, good night
    That was because I was suspecting them, or I didn't think they were particularly towny at that point in time

  39. ISO #9189
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    maybe this was brought up already amy, but it wasn't holy that asked me if I could trade dying for people following my levi read, it was ejji

  40. ISO #9190
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    @The Sun Fan

    Unless I am misremembering, you felt pilica was towny at EoD3. Do you remember why you felt that way and ultimately deciding to switch up to pilica in the end?

    Apologies, if you have answered this

  41. ISO #9191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9190)
    @The Sun Fan

    Unless I am misremembering, you felt pilica was towny at EoD3. Do you remember why you felt that way and ultimately deciding to switch up to pilica in the end?

    Apologies, if you have answered this
    I believe I answered this today, could be wrong
    it had to do with her shift in emotion, mostly? It felt out of place for someone who was fun-loving and said in her bio that she often dies d3, and I mean
    obviously looking back that read aged like $%#!, good chance its the worst read I've given this game

  42. ISO #9192
    Soul Reader Justplayingitcool's Avatar
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    I think both wolves ended up on different wagons last day phase. Don’t think the wolves cared which one of jack or myself went over yesterday

  43. ISO #9193
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    Retrospective Day 3 Votecount as of Post #6894

    Post #6894 was originally posted at 6:00 PM EDT on Tuesday, September 7th, 2021.

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    4 Pilica SuperJack (85), Necrominus (48), vanity. (241), Secondhand Revenant (230)
    3 Holyflare The Sun Fan (189), Pilica (132), Holyflare (199)
    2 SuperJack Justplayingitcool (67), Ampharos (164)
    1 Secondhand Revenant ejjinami (99)
    1 Not voting Esooa (203)

    View Vote History

    Requested by Justplayingitcool.

  44. ISO #9194
    Automatic Game Mod Mafia Host's Avatar
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    Retrospective Day 3 Votecount as of Post #6895

    Post #6895 was originally posted at 6:00 PM EDT on Tuesday, September 7th, 2021.

    Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase)
    5 Pilica SuperJack (85), Necrominus (48), vanity. (241), Secondhand Revenant (230), The Sun Fan (190)
    2 SuperJack Justplayingitcool (67), Ampharos (164)
    2 Holyflare Pilica (132), Holyflare (199)
    1 Secondhand Revenant ejjinami (99)
    1 Not voting Esooa (203)

    View Vote History

    Requested by Justplayingitcool.

  45. ISO #9195
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9191)
    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9190)
    @The Sun Fan

    Unless I am misremembering, you felt pilica was towny at EoD3. Do you remember why you felt that way and ultimately deciding to switch up to pilica in the end?

    Apologies, if you have answered this
    I believe I answered this today, could be wrong
    it had to do with her shift in emotion, mostly? It felt out of place for someone who was fun-loving and said in her bio that she often dies d3, and I mean
    obviously looking back that read aged like $%#!, good chance its the worst read I've given this game
    What was your read on superjack at eod3? I think you were townreading them at this point. Just wanna know why you felt pilica was a better vote than superjack at that point

  46. ISO #9196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9187)
    If TSF/SR are wolves then they decided to simultaneously bus pilica at the same time so there was likely coordination on that front. I think that team is just sooooooo unlikely when the juicy holy yeet was up for grabs
    in that world, yeah, I think we almost definitely remain on holy, even if pilica wants us to bus her or something

    the one thing I know I would say if it were someone else and me swapped in that world is that sr and I only moved after vanity did

  47. ISO #9197
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9195)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9191)
    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9190)
    @The Sun Fan

    Unless I am misremembering, you felt pilica was towny at EoD3. Do you remember why you felt that way and ultimately deciding to switch up to pilica in the end?

    Apologies, if you have answered this
    I believe I answered this today, could be wrong
    it had to do with her shift in emotion, mostly? It felt out of place for someone who was fun-loving and said in her bio that she often dies d3, and I mean
    obviously looking back that read aged like $%#!, good chance its the worst read I've given this game
    What was your read on superjack at eod3? I think you were townreading them at this point. Just wanna know why you felt pilica was a better vote than superjack at that point
    amy misremembered something; I actually started the Superjack wagon on d3. Amy said "tsf didn't try to take advantage of it" which I mean isn't an untrue statement, but an odd opinion/misremembered opinion (she also was wrong about a holy/me interaction that was actually an ejji/me interaction from d1)

    I believe I was still townreading the slot, but based on some interaction, couldn't tell you what it was and I'm not going back for it, it looked like SJ was a bit wacky/emotional and I wanted to see their reaction to getting wagoned. It was a big ol' nothingburger. I was the person who told esooa to come back to the wagon for just a few more minutes so SJ can have a reaction, which SJ never really did. It was like the wagon didn't really exist to them, and then SJ was like "I have to drive home or my partner will worry" which I never said in the thread directly, and I hate accusing people of lying about that stuff because people are almost always telling the truth, but I asked them twice the next day why they couldn't just text their partner that they were going to be home late.

    I think virtually 100% of my read on that slot was based on my previous read on justin, and I thought justin was my 2nd top town at the time. kiiiiiinda makes me feel bad for snapping at you 2nd eod when you were asking about the slot when I went and did that the next day, sorry.

    Anyways, I was more trying to get SOMETHING, didn't get anything, and then I think I proclaimed the wagon dead something like 20 minutes before EOD. Several people were talking about how they were too cowardly (amy) or not interested (like a few other people) in voting SJ, and I
    a) wasn't super interested in going back there because the wagon was for reactions more than anything (which is why, especially at this point in the game, I'm glad the wagon didn't take off more). Esooa was openly saying her heart wasn't in the SJ wagon, Necro I think called it a distraction or something, so I think if wolves were trying to take advantage of the wagon, they were wary it would fall apart if they hopped on
    b) was trying to end the day with vanity/esooa, and I saw vanity had gone back to pilica, which is where she was saying she wanted to end up anyways for the most part

  48. ISO #9198
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    fwiw I think I have a rough order for the remaining 4 now
    sleeping on the game helped a lot

    I also don't have an assignment due today that I thought would be due today, so so far, today is a good day (ask me again in like 10 hours though lmao)

    my activity is still going to be really piss-poor for the next decent number of hours because I need to
    go and do a lot of busywork at my school's library for a class

  49. ISO #9199
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    I think we should probably get the vote order knocked out in the next couple of hours
    have it ready before the two euros go to sleep
    though I can't really tell if holy ever sleeps

  50. ISO #9200
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9197)
    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9195)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Sun Fan (#9191)
    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#9190)
    @The Sun Fan

    Unless I am misremembering, you felt pilica was towny at EoD3. Do you remember why you felt that way and ultimately deciding to switch up to pilica in the end?

    Apologies, if you have answered this
    I believe I answered this today, could be wrong
    it had to do with her shift in emotion, mostly? It felt out of place for someone who was fun-loving and said in her bio that she often dies d3, and I mean
    obviously looking back that read aged like $%#!, good chance its the worst read I've given this game
    What was your read on superjack at eod3? I think you were townreading them at this point. Just wanna know why you felt pilica was a better vote than superjack at that point
    amy misremembered something; I actually started the Superjack wagon on d3. Amy said "tsf didn't try to take advantage of it" which I mean isn't an untrue statement, but an odd opinion/misremembered opinion (she also was wrong about a holy/me interaction that was actually an ejji/me interaction from d1)

    I believe I was still townreading the slot, but based on some interaction, couldn't tell you what it was and I'm not going back for it, it looked like SJ was a bit wacky/emotional and I wanted to see their reaction to getting wagoned. It was a big ol' nothingburger. I was the person who told esooa to come back to the wagon for just a few more minutes so SJ can have a reaction, which SJ never really did. It was like the wagon didn't really exist to them, and then SJ was like "I have to drive home or my partner will worry" which I never said in the thread directly, and I hate accusing people of lying about that stuff because people are almost always telling the truth, but I asked them twice the next day why they couldn't just text their partner that they were going to be home late.

    I think virtually 100% of my read on that slot was based on my previous read on justin, and I thought justin was my 2nd top town at the time. kiiiiiinda makes me feel bad for snapping at you 2nd eod when you were asking about the slot when I went and did that the next day, sorry.

    Anyways, I was more trying to get SOMETHING, didn't get anything, and then I think I proclaimed the wagon dead something like 20 minutes before EOD. Several people were talking about how they were too cowardly (amy) or not interested (like a few other people) in voting SJ, and I
    a) wasn't super interested in going back there because the wagon was for reactions more than anything (which is why, especially at this point in the game, I'm glad the wagon didn't take off more). Esooa was openly saying her heart wasn't in the SJ wagon, Necro I think called it a distraction or something, so I think if wolves were trying to take advantage of the wagon, they were wary it would fall apart if they hopped on
    b) was trying to end the day with vanity/esooa, and I saw vanity had gone back to pilica, which is where she was saying she wanted to end up anyways for the most part
    Ah, i thought you snapped at me at day 3 for some reason

    And that makes sense with your voting progression. So your vote switch was predominately because vanity moved?

    i had a similar thought at the time with the superjack thing day 3 with their partner but I don’t like calling out things like that either

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