Honestly, the more I turn it over in my head, the more I think I'm wasting my time trying over and over again to parse the same 8 seconds of the same day.
Like, maybe it's Holyflare + one of the voteswaps, and Pilica was bussed because Holyflare suddenly decided he wanted to play. Maybe it's BOTH of the voteswaps, and they bussed Pilica for the hell of it to go deep. Maybe JPIC's in there. Who knows? Not me. The voteswaps are identical. Holyflare looks like he was playing against wincon either way. JPIC is awol. It's simultaneously pivotal and inscrutable, and I don't know how else I can attack the problem.
I do wanna ask @Justplayingitcool about his EoD3 mindset, but otherwise I'm looking elsewhere unless anyone has a compelling reason that I shouldn't.
Those are the 6 possible combinations. I'm going to stare at words until I can no longer stay awake.
why the $%#! is esooa dead lol
she had no wolfreads past superjack
I don't think it was particularly against win-con. Consider that I really thought Esooa was just mafia and that me flipping would get people to re-evaluate her and also that I was just completely tired of having to work/ogi stuff and split my attention to being present 24/7 just to get called mafia for having reads.
I'd like you to answer my questions on the previous page if you can thanks. Same for you @Justplayingitcool
This post is a scattershot assortment of musings. It serves no real purpose except to help me organize my thoughts, and perhaps to elucidate my process for others.
For me to believe JPIC is a wolf, I have to believe he's either exactly with SR or that he was being bussed yesterday, despite TSF being stringently anti-bus and vocally saying that he thinks bussing JPIC yesterday would have been a terrible play. This in spite of at least one interaction between SR-JPIC that I still think looks pretty unaligned. I also have to think the Pilica masonry thing was w/w.
For me to believe that Holyflare is a wolf, I have to believe that the selfvote thing was either a wolf gambit or a legitimate attempt to get the $%#! out of the game; the latter I want to believe just isn't true, and the former is super weird given the fact that he also put Pilica to L-1 at one point during the EoD.
I also have to believe that he intentionally made up a pretty angly read on Justin and used it both to shade him and make himself look better; this is a point that I consistently forget about in the moment and then remember again when I take the time to think, but it's one of the reasons I started townreading him so hard to begin with. I'll say that if Holyflare DID do this as a wolf... I'll just leave it at "I disagree with the decision to do so and would not have done the same."
For me to believe that SR is a wolf, I have to believe that Pilica chose to distance from SR in the exact opposite manner from how she chose to distance from Beaker in quals - namely, by largely ignoring him. I also have to believe that SR committed to bussing Pilica basically as soon as the ejji wagon stopped being viable; if my clear on Holy is correct, he did this even despite a village counterwagon being present. In fact - and this is a point that legitimately just occurred to me - neither SR nor TSF seized on the SuperJack wagon, which we KNOW flipped town and which we KNOW was viable enough that it could have feasibly overtaken Pilica at one point - so yeah, there was a degree of "pushed a wolf over a villager" regardless of Holyflare's alignment.
For TSF to be a wolf, I have to believe that the most villagery player of the past several phases is a wolf. I have to believe he went against everything he's been preaching in the thread and bussed Pilica when other options were feasibly available - again, regardless of Holyflare's alignment. I have to believe that I suck at mafia [not a hard sell, to be fair].
In conclusion, mafia is hard.
Who kills Esooa?
The Esooa flip is one that breaks my previously established worldview in p#8803. It forces me into a full reevaluation. The obvious beneficiary of this is JPIC, who is now less likely to get voted for PoE reasons; there's a very good argument, however, that the opportunity cost isn't worth it, because now you have both TSF and Holyflare alive, and both of them voted JPIC yesterday, and even if one of them is JPIC's partner you can still kill the other one.
A team that wants to shake confidence in TSF's threadspewed status kills Esooa. TSF himself also probably kills Esooa. Figuring out which one of these is true is complete WIFOM.
Esooa literally had no wolfreads outside of SJ. She thought JPIC was the least towny player, but she still asserted that she thought he was towny. She was a complete wild-
Oh. That's why she died. We continue to glean literally no information from the nightkills. There are no clears, no suspects. We live in purgatory.
My initial impulse is that I cannot clear TSF/JPIC from being a team, because as much as I want to accept TSF's premise that he would never bus JPIC in that slot, the premise is invalidated by any world in which TSF is a wolf, because it requires him to have bussed Pilica. In a TSF/JPIC world specifically, he bussed Pilica as a deliberate act, and then played up his anti-bussing stance in order to get cred off the JPIC vote.
That said... it would have had to have been a deliberate choice, because with TSF's constricted EoD availability there was no real way for him to control whether it was a bus or merely a distance. And I think for someone in TSF's spot specifically, globally townread by the entire thread, bussing your partner is stupid, solely because then you SHOULD be locking yourself in as someone who dies to nightkill before F3. He'd be setting himself up for failure.
So, yeah, maybe this team isn't a thing. One down. Two, if I assume Holyflare wouldn't bus for the same reason.
The interaction SR had with JPIC would make 3. For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to accept it at face value for now.
4 would be an interaction I can recall from EoD1, between Holyflare and TSF; namely, when TSF was trying to hard shield levi. Holyflare asked if TSF would be willing to eat rope in exchange for his reads being sheeped, to which TSF wrote a very long "$%#! no". I cannot fathom thinking up this interaction as wolf partners, not in the specific way that it manifested. Doesn't prevent TSF and Holy from being better at theater than me, but it's fine for this specific exercise.
The two teams left become SR/Holy and SR/TSF. SR becomes my best worlds vote. EoD is either a double bus or a "Pilica dying is better than Holy dying", both after having previously spurned a viable SuperJack wagon. If there are concrete reasons to exclude either of these teams, I'm unaware of them. The problem is that Holyflare feels like a villager, and TSF feels like a villager, and both these feelings are difficult to shake, which means I'm either misclearing them or I'm misclearing a team somewhere.
@Secondhand Revenant, on a scale of 1-10, how invested would you say you are in this game right now?
Question at top of page irrelevant now I suppose?
Anyways, idk how to pin it exactly. I'm incredibly anxious about it and it's become not fun to the point I don't think I feel like playing mafia much for a while again after this. I don't feel like I can particularly not pay attention to it either, despite not having to look at game during night couldn't shake off feeling I should be doing something but needed break. Also can't bring myself to dig through ISOs rn and concentrate on that. Ig level of investment is like a 4 while space its taking up in my head is like at 8
I also don't feel like trying to remember the thoughts I had yday and before hf. If you have specific questions shoot but I didn't have some plan for how to probe people on stuff, I did it in the moment when they were around and tried talking to them
Maybe we should town case ourselves and see how it goes
I'm also up for order voting whenever (obv want to extend that as long as possible) because I am pretty sure jpic flips mafia here and at the very least another NK would go a long way to helping solve (insane bias that I want to be killed )
I also, broadly speaking, take issue with people attempting to self-vote and suicide, but that's more of a me thing than anything else.
I think it's fairly evident that starting sometime around D3 I started wolfreading ejji, primarily because she wasn't ramping into the game like I was led to believe she would as a villager, and was instead flagging like I was led to believe she would as a wolf. The Pilica flip bolstered this belief, initially because I had noted ejji showing up at EoD and attempting to hard swing the vote off of Pilica and onto myself - and though her target eventually changed to SR, she had started with the confirmed villager in the pair, and I townread SR at the time anyways.
In verifying Wisdom's interactions chart, and in rereading parts of Pilica's ISO, I could find no reason why she couldn't be partnered with ejji. In reading ejji's ISO, I found plenty of reasons why she could be partnered with Pilica - hence that big dumb wallpost I did on the matter. Her 0-posting didn't help, and by the time she DID show up she only moved the needle enough for my stomach to do some kickflips as the timer ticked down.
At the same time as the above was developing, I was in the process of drinking the SJ wolf koolaid.
I thought SJ's EoD3 felt bad in the moment - enough that I kept my vote on them even amidst the Pilica/Holyflare nonsense (though admittedly this was at least partially spurred by my attention being divided due to IRL factors). I waffled a lot at SoD on whether or not their interactions with Pilica at EoD looked like distancing, but I eventually settled on "yeah, it could be". This of course was bolstered by looking through Pilica and later Justin's ISO, and noting that their interests seemed pretty aligned for pretty much the entirety of D1. In particular, I thought in light of the freewheeling, openwolf-y Pilica flipping W, a world where Justin was openwolfing alongside her seemed attractive.
The ejji flip largely bolstered this belief - partially because I hadn't done a ton of interactions analysis between ejji and SuperJustin, and thus hadn't based any of my scumread off that particular teambuilding axis, but mostly because I thought everyone else was being villagery and they weren't.
I spent most of D5 focusing on D4; I felt I hadn't paid enough attention to the actual D4 posting, and instead had been up my $%#! backreading and being wrong about ejji, so I wanted to look over it again with fresh eyes. In the end I'm... not sure it helped a ton. I was primarily looking for difference tells with regards to how people approached the day, trying to find the people who were going against the general thread atmosphere, whether that meant treating ejji as a foregone conclusion or working way too hard to bury her. No such tell manifested, and I was annoyed about it.
In the end it came down to who was less villagery, and also worlds. I spent a long time trying to figure out if SJ/JPIC was viable, and eventually decided that it was. I wasn't necessarily sure if SJ had a higher chance of flipping red than JPIC at that point, because while JPIC's D4 had been generally better, there were enough weird points in SJ's ISO to give me pause. In the end, I think I just wanted to see the SJ flip because if JPIC flipped green and SJ was still around in LYLO it was going to be MUCH harder to reset and reevaluate than the inverse.
I pretty much always expected to be alive today. I figured TSF was the most likely kill target regardless of the flip, with an off chance of Holyflare; the only world where I really expected another kill was one where SJ flipped red, in which case I think you could make a strong argument for the Esooa kill. This is mostly to say that I perhaps approached EoD yesterday without too much of a sense of urgency, because I knew I'd almost certainly have today to either build on success or fix the prior day's mistake.
I probably owed SJ more diligence. That's on me. I think I was thorough on ejji, and don't regret that flip beyond a "sometimes you're just wrong, that's how mafia works" level, but I think I could have dug deeper on SJ.
Past 2 cycles if I ignore the rest of the game:
Jpic - I think Jpic's posts have been entirely reactionary, not doing much in the way of solving, entirely surface level and also lacking. On the day Ejji was getting killed, it felt like the only thing that happened with Jpic was that he argued with SJ over the misconstruing and then just kinda sat with it. He's capable of these long winded posts explaining himself and pushing things but when it came to actually pushing SJ or writing a case or pointing us towards posts, I think that was just missing.
When I quizzed him on his reads, they were all entirely based on single instances throughout the game that didn't really hold any water for being that strong later on. In the case that SJ was town and he was town, he should be way more concerned that something is afoot and some people are playing extremely well and so his world views shouldn't make that much sense. I don't think he ever made that connection at all, most likely because it didn't come naturally.
When Ejji flipped town, the only conclusion he reached after that for the entire 48 hours was that Amy was mafia because of PoE (and that PoE was based on flimsy reasoning still).
Again, there was no trying to push SJ, no care about going out of his way to get us to vote for his really sure mafia read. No thoughts on trying to figure SJ out. I tried a few times to get them to interact but it was always just talking past each other to me instead of directly so it looked very much like appealing to me instead of possibly having to come around on SJ. I don't think he even voted for SJ until way late.
The only thing I've been able to glean from his ISO today is that "I don’t think amy is a wolf as of right now though with esooa flip" which... I have no idea how that makes any sense in the slightest? If he thinks Esooa was killed to make his miselim easier, then why does that imply Amy isn't mafia? Plz answer Jpic.
Will get to the rest in a bit.
iunno it's prolly like jpic/sr and i'm just still bad at reading sr even after all these years
bet there are a lot of amy posts linked in wolfchat if that's the squad
If I had to pick an order with bias
Me > TSF > SR > Amy > Jpic
Probably realistically it's something like
TSF > Me > Amy > SR > Jpic
I'm unsure what the consensus is on me vs. SR, but I'm also unsure how much it matters.
It's F5 of champs semis. The playerlist at large has poured an absolutely ridiculous amount of effort into this game. I'm forcing myself to step up despite the fact that I don't really want to be here, because even beyond wanting to win, I refuse to be the reason that town loses.
If you're town, I ask for somewhere between 0.5-1.5 day phases where the investment matches the mental occupation, because the fact that you're still kind of spinning your wheels is noticeable.
I consistently tell anyone who asks that you're a better player than me. Prove it.
In a hypothetical world where TSF is a wolf, who are his viable partners?
This question brought to you by some combination of paranoia that I haven't dug deeply enough into TSF and the fact that at the end of the day I don't want to have been wrong on SR for the entire game.
flashbacks to me offering to towncase SR and jpic being the one to take me up on it
anyways, good night
Asking the room, is holy/amy possible? I think I had a reason for ruling that out but ngl i don't even remember why I felt that
can't remember why I had you and amy as not aligned with pilica
There's also the fact that I'm just not mafia, but I don't expect you to buy into that one as easily
Do you have any opinions about anything we're talking about???? Really feels like you just drop in now and again to halfheartedly reply with a one liner and leave.
I honestly have no good reason he couldn't be with either you or SR off the top of my head but I'm probably forgetting some pivotal thread moment that makes it unlikely. Probably means I should ISO him I guess but.... meh I just think he's pretty townie tbh. Guess I should give it some due diligence though.
SR ISO time. Someone talk to me so it doesn't feel like an absolute chore plz.
Timezones... why do they exist...
Not sure how you want me to answer the first one, but I think said in the last day phase it felt like nobody gave a $%#! when it was between me and SJ as the potential lynch options. I was even coming around to them being town because of it, unfortunately, jack refused to work with me so I was left with pretty much no option to have them yeeted over myself
I think my thought process has been pretty evident in the thread the last two phases.
Day 4, I was townreading SR for the vote switch unless they're partnered with you exactly. I felt TSF/Esooa were individually towny,
I felt Amy was unlikely to be a wolf from the pilica stuff.
I felt I agreed with TSF in how you were unlikely to be a wolf when you voted yourself up
That left me with Jack and ejji. A poe of two people
Day 5, ejji flipped town and I was still townreading SR from the vote switch and had an individual townread on TSF
My townread on TSF was stronger than Amy/Esooa so I had them moved in the PoE because I was scumreading Jack still at that point, and I felt Amy fitted well with them. But I also felt Amy fitted with esooa as well, which is why I was keener on pushing Amy in the thread than Jack. I didn't really think Amy was too scummy apart from a few posts EoD5 which had me frying for most of it.
Why are you asking me to rundown my thought process again when I have been over this before?
And thanks for the first paragraph, I think that was pretty much where I was in terms of partners. I don't feel like you ISO'ing them a lot is compelling in lylo because as I've mentioned before that I did that a few times with Pawn in my qualifier. Having said that, theoretically if you were partners what was Amy supposed to do? You and pilica were both wagons at EoD3 so it's not like she could have done anything else but vote and sit on SuperJack.
If TSF/SR are wolves then they decided to simultaneously bus pilica at the same time so there was likely coordination on that front. I think that team is just sooooooo unlikely when the juicy holy yeet was up for grabs
maybe this was brought up already amy, but it wasn't holy that asked me if I could trade dying for people following my levi read, it was ejji
@The Sun Fan
Unless I am misremembering, you felt pilica was towny at EoD3. Do you remember why you felt that way and ultimately deciding to switch up to pilica in the end?
Apologies, if you have answered this
it had to do with her shift in emotion, mostly? It felt out of place for someone who was fun-loving and said in her bio that she often dies d3, and I mean
obviously looking back that read aged like $%#!, good chance its the worst read I've given this game
I think both wolves ended up on different wagons last day phase. Don’t think the wolves cared which one of jack or myself went over yesterday
Retrospective Day 3 Votecount as of Post #6894
Post #6894 was originally posted at 6:00 PM EDT on Tuesday, September 7th, 2021.
Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase) 4 Pilica SuperJack (85), Necrominus (48), vanity. (241), Secondhand Revenant (230) 3 Holyflare The Sun Fan (189), Pilica (132), Holyflare (199) 2 SuperJack Justplayingitcool (67), Ampharos (164) 1 Secondhand Revenant ejjinami (99) 1 Not voting Esooa (203)
View Vote History
Requested by Justplayingitcool.
Retrospective Day 3 Votecount as of Post #6895
Post #6895 was originally posted at 6:00 PM EDT on Tuesday, September 7th, 2021.
Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase) 5 Pilica SuperJack (85), Necrominus (48), vanity. (241), Secondhand Revenant (230), The Sun Fan (190) 2 SuperJack Justplayingitcool (67), Ampharos (164) 2 Holyflare Pilica (132), Holyflare (199) 1 Secondhand Revenant ejjinami (99) 1 Not voting Esooa (203)
View Vote History
Requested by Justplayingitcool.
the one thing I know I would say if it were someone else and me swapped in that world is that sr and I only moved after vanity did
I believe I was still townreading the slot, but based on some interaction, couldn't tell you what it was and I'm not going back for it, it looked like SJ was a bit wacky/emotional and I wanted to see their reaction to getting wagoned. It was a big ol' nothingburger. I was the person who told esooa to come back to the wagon for just a few more minutes so SJ can have a reaction, which SJ never really did. It was like the wagon didn't really exist to them, and then SJ was like "I have to drive home or my partner will worry" which I never said in the thread directly, and I hate accusing people of lying about that stuff because people are almost always telling the truth, but I asked them twice the next day why they couldn't just text their partner that they were going to be home late.
I think virtually 100% of my read on that slot was based on my previous read on justin, and I thought justin was my 2nd top town at the time. kiiiiiinda makes me feel bad for snapping at you 2nd eod when you were asking about the slot when I went and did that the next day, sorry.
Anyways, I was more trying to get SOMETHING, didn't get anything, and then I think I proclaimed the wagon dead something like 20 minutes before EOD. Several people were talking about how they were too cowardly (amy) or not interested (like a few other people) in voting SJ, and I
a) wasn't super interested in going back there because the wagon was for reactions more than anything (which is why, especially at this point in the game, I'm glad the wagon didn't take off more). Esooa was openly saying her heart wasn't in the SJ wagon, Necro I think called it a distraction or something, so I think if wolves were trying to take advantage of the wagon, they were wary it would fall apart if they hopped on
b) was trying to end the day with vanity/esooa, and I saw vanity had gone back to pilica, which is where she was saying she wanted to end up anyways for the most part
fwiw I think I have a rough order for the remaining 4 now
sleeping on the game helped a lot
I also don't have an assignment due today that I thought would be due today, so so far, today is a good day (ask me again in like 10 hours though lmao)
my activity is still going to be really piss-poor for the next decent number of hours because I need to
go and do a lot of busywork at my school's library for a class
I think we should probably get the vote order knocked out in the next couple of hours
have it ready before the two euros go to sleep
though I can't really tell if holy ever sleeps
And that makes sense with your voting progression. So your vote switch was predominately because vanity moved?
i had a similar thought at the time with the superjack thing day 3 with their partner but I don’t like calling out things like that either