Above all else, I don't want to make someone's game unpleasant and it kinda hurts tbat he said I ruined roundbox's experience so yeah. Here I am.
Above all else, I don't want to make someone's game unpleasant and it kinda hurts tbat he said I ruined roundbox's experience so yeah. Here I am.
I didn’t think you were calling me a wolf for that, I said you shat on me for turning around on Soneji. Like you gave me grief for it at the time. But perhaps that’s just the rhetoric difference like the whole “fire wall post” thing from early game.
Alfredo is laying down on my lap but I wanna go to sleep but I’m not in a position to be able to do so and I’m drunk so I’m stuck
my boys asleep on my desk
picture not related, i just want to have 4 arms and pet 4 cats at once tbh
im heading off early i didnt sleep well enough and i feel an urge to vote one of my top townreads out of paranoia so im not sure if i should be here
good luck with alfredo gorf
Possible she's w and tsf v or vice versa. I dunno. I've only briefly skimmed things to be fair and eod I didn't participate that nuch in so I'll give your post another read with fresh eyes when I wake up.
Really gonna force myself off now. Night.
@katze I think the chances of HF, Hornet, me, you, wiml, Alexa all being villagers is very high. Thoughts?
I think the notion that wolves must've been bussing when vandy had these 6 people voting him is incorrect. The next 3 people to vote vandy are gorf, boquise and thunal.
In champs, I see wolves as more likely to soft-defend a partner D1. The 3 people that voted Vandy after it was guaranteed were the 3 people who were voting the counter-wagon to Vandy.
I understand the idea that anything can happen. Though let's explore some scenarios.
We know that:
The only people off the Vandy wagon properly (EG wiml is off wagon, but was still pro vandy flip) when Gorf, boquise, thunal join, are Wisdom, Soneji, Vanity and TSF and Pilica.
I'm going to assume that
The 6 early voters are villagers [HF, hornet, JC, katze, alexa, wiml] for some scenarios:
[Gorf, Thunal, Boquise] contains 2 wolves. Both were voting TSF!v then both jumped on Vandy!w last minute. Do wolves really work in a block like this? I don't think so. I'm inclined to rule this world out.
Scenario 2: What people are arguing - Pilica and TSF are wolves
Wolves got caught the $%#! off the wolf Vandy wagon until... Pilica comes in.
For this to be true, there would have been another wolf wagon in TSF. Because the only people off wagon once Gorf, Boq and Thunal jump on are EXACTLY AND ONLY TSF and Pilica (who is still 6 posting at this point).
[Gorf, Thunal, Boquise] contains 1 wolf, and jumped on Vandy last minute, after voting team mate TSF.
[Gorf, Thunal, boquise] contains 1 wolf who wanted to save Vandy by voting a villager TSF, and then jumped on Vandy last minute. Their teammate is Pilica.
I could probably explain this better in a way that would make you feel signficantly less bad;
he often feels (and I will say he's statistically not wrong) that people listen to him less. He writes longer posts, he puts a lot of work into the game, and for whatever reason, I think people are like... less inclined to listen to him, and he has a harder time because of that.
He felt like that happened to him both in quals where he got quickhammered when he was in a counterclaim battle, and in semis.
And like I said, he did tunnel Carotte and was wrong, so at least some of this is on him and I know he knows that.
There's also pressure (i'd say a lot of it is self-applied also) from people from our forum to do well since we have a good historical record and I know not advancing to the finals hurt his pride. He's a good enough player to do so, and I know there are probably literally hundreds of people who, if the die was cast slightly differently, would be here or in finals in another season.
None of that is your fault. You play the game in a way that is fine. You haven't ruined my experience; I meant what I said yesterday, I am mad at no one but myself. I'm calmer today, and I hope to god I stay that way, and its not me using politesse when I say it wasn't you that set me off. The straw that broke the camel's back was me seeing that vanity had closed off to me, or at least it felt like that. I think the fact that she didn't answer my pings after that kind of... makes me feel bad for reasons. I could answer this post with a lot more words, but sincerely, it wasn't you.
No one could ruin my experience here but me, and I mean that. If I die, assuming you are actually a villager, which I do think, its not your fault, or anyone elses. Its my fault, and conversely, credit goes to the wolves for all the $%#! that it would take for me to die here.
I'm sorry that I said something like that.
Some night time reading for someone: find in my iso where I said boq's switch to vandy looked performative and investigate context plz
I couldn't find something with all of the reads altogether before this and there's like 50+ posts after this one
been ping-ponging back with d1 vote stuff and I figured I owed this to her. I also found out she was interacting with me more than I remembered, it was just that we never talked about the wagon thing, I think. Apologies, vanity.
anyways, my interpretationg here is
a few notes:
had wiml/sunfan never w/w
I think this might not be where she ended on Wiml but I wasn't combing the posts very closely looking for it
poe was wiml/soneji even if I died and flipped v
Good morning tbh
I have rejected sleep and chores because I want to be on top of the game and fully caught up, which is probably the reason why I don't really know where to start in my approach of this game tbh
Still hyped to play and got more excited when the game wasn't as locked as I thought (even tho I still feel solid about TSF and Pilica aorn. But I need to find a sort of healthy balance lol
I'm going through the posts following Hornet/vandy interaction (you know the one)
I feel katze's bold, red question marks on Thunal on a very spiritual level looking back over these
just saying what I'm working on I guess
I'm still alive I promise
while you're here boq I require your Swedishness. I talked to holyflare a little bit about why I didn't have a goodbye post yesterday; I was answering one of your posts about something really unimportant when I noticed the timer was low, tried to get something out, and couldn't get it out in time.
The forum I'm repping has a token Swede, and he told me something that I can't seem to find anymore in the discord about Swedish names. He said there was something related to my username, I think it was Sun, that can be a masculine name or a last name or something.
its been driving me crazy
you can just tack it onto an actual, productive post if you can understand what the hell I'm trying to remember here. Been driving me mad ever since yesterday.
Wolves are shameful for killing Wisdom n1 btw never have I required Swedes more in my life.
I was also during my EOD1 read up considering potential partners to TSF and those landed on Soneji and Pilica. I regret not gunning hard for my stronger wolf read but I was also fine with the Soneji yeet tbh
maybe? I thought it would seem right if I heard it or saw it, but that doesn't
I won't waste more posts on it but I legit cannot find this conversation in discord
back to the game
Especially if you're known for manipulating spew like Pilica.
Also town is not consistent with their thoughts.
then like 3 people entered today calling her vandy progression bad
hf is right; this is not new information and its just kinda like
frustrating to see so many people say it now in the same way that I was not on the same wavelength as people on soneji at times
to be clear, I'm like
townreading pilica, but I'm determining whether or not I should be, which is a semi cop-out answer, I know
but most people are in that slot right now.
tbh I said to vanity yesterday I was considering locking pilica in as town, as well as alexa.
hopefully this is clearing this up for you
also, yes, it was Sune. I had looked for many other keywords but not that one, thanks.
Season 8 Finale! [The Mafia Championship] Day 3 Votecount
Votes Target Voters (Posts in Phase) 3 The Sun Fan alexa (49), Boquise (15), Thunal33 (25) 8 Not voting Hornet (14), The Sun Fan (40), JohnCarter (27), Gorf (30), Wiml (41), Holyflare (24), Pilica (0), katze (47)
View Vote History
End day at majority is enabled. With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to reach majority.
Day 3 ends at 6:00 PM EDT on Friday, October 15th, 2021. There are 1634335260000 remaining.
Have to get ready for work
In a not TSF/Pilica world
I think Pilica could be a wolf
But I also notice the sudden surge of scum reads on her, when no one entertained it yesterday when I was on it. It reminds me of S5 Finale where thread has its pool of players that could be yeeted or made yeetable and the thread had a sort of locked feeling. Which is probably why I feel a bit uncomfortable tbh
With that said, if Pilica is town with TSF, then the scum equity of Gorf, Thunal and Wiml rise. Not Alexa because of she started the day and I feel like the thoughts are original whereas others have latched on, and I still feel like Gorf can be trying to co-captain. It also annoyingly reminds me of the previous finale because I think I have said things that are not really looked at but I guess I will have to be more assertive tbh
TSF has yet to write a post today that is super villagery. I have previously been good at finding out if a bottom poe is town or not, like Apogee in SF1. I don't see that here with TSF. What makes me hesitate is the thread atmosphere, not TSF's individual posts.
Like TSF when writing about me, you don't really bring up the hedge I had about you yesterday. I did try to solve you. Though not as much as I wished.
Skimmed your response for now TSF. For what it is worth, I completely get your frustration.
Regarding NKA, Vanity town read Pilica hard. I think that makes me lean to a good look for Pilica even tho it can just be that scum figured out that vanity was the doc. Her MD comments yesterday kinda spewed her doc lmao
I'm locking alexa in as a villager and probably never reconsidering
this post hits real different on an ISO; this was a critical time for wolves, vandy is, at this point, flailing and this just
isn't what vandy's partner is doing
she looks very good anyways off of vandy stuff and at least a few other things that I don't even remember rn but yeah
I also just tend to really buy these posts like a sucker
its destined to happen in any game where its 13 good players and 2 swedes trying their hardest; there's gonna be a lot of posts, a fair bit of ego, and a lot of people missing posts or not realizing something that other people have said. Like I just found that alexa post from what feels like years ago at this point, but it was 5 3/4 days ago.
at least half of the mentions I've got has been stuff I've already been questioned on, but that's just mafia.
we're chickens with our heads cut off, but I'd like to pretend we're good at running around.
I'm only minorly frustrated, and I've been at least as guilty as other people have been, if not more.
also I put 0 stock into that nightkill analysis
wolves were always going to roleblock JC, we know that now, at the least
wolves were also always going to kill vanity, I'd reckon. Probably don't wanna write too many words on why but, at a cursory glance, it seems optimal? Scenario didn't come up in sf3 but I think its correct?
I'd like to assume wolves played optimally on purpose
You can look at vanity's legacy and come to that conclusion and I hate it a lot less; maybe that's what you did.
Good morning I got an appointment with my bachelor thesis prof soon.
I knew you'd all gun for my head now. Seriously thought Soneji would be it for POE reasons or at least more likely than TSF. $%#! me I guess. Either way I'll be answering to pings and everything later but ngl it feels like if you don't kill me today you will tomorrow. So can you do me the favor of offing me first if you're still convinced by EoD it HAS to be me +X because I feel you all need my town flip to hit you in the face real hard rn.
if you're a wolf I just
wasn't paying enough attention to you in sf3, I guess, seems somewhat unlikely.
I also think you concluded gorf/wiml not w/w.
So does Thunal/Wiml work for you? Because I don't think it does.
To me it looks like if Thunal were a wolf, she's been intent on keeping Wiml in the POE, which reminds me of how Vandy treated Wiml. Perhaps one wolf does this to wolf #3, though i'm not sold on the idea that two would, particularly as the heat they'd have stirred on him would directly mean he would not end-game?
Hope your psych thesis is going well - they can be very time consuming
Haven't pinged you. You'll see in my scenario's post that i've put forward a few worlds though, and that's what I particularly want to hear from you on.
I can see the argument you're making about flipping you if you think others are 100% convinced on you, but, also, let's not work with that thought anymore. Catch woofs. You seemed to get Vandy!
#3491. Whilst I don't stand by all my reasoning in that post with conviction now, I do stand by that one.
So that kind of just says (to me, not to you, i'm open to your view) that there's only 0-1 wolves in that pile of 3, regardless of the other two flips.
To me, if you're a villager, you should see Pilica as a wolf + one of Thunal, Boq, and Gorf as a wolf. OR: two of Thunal, Boq, and Gorf as wolves - which I have as unlikely.
This post reads like you're intentionally try to be misleading for how you 'read' Pilica. Sorry.
Is she a wolf or not?
I admit that usually, wolves don't group themselves together, I agree
I'm working on something rn where I'm looking through every post between hornet/vandy interaction and the point where my wagon well and truly dies, and I'm circa post 1550 rn
I'll address at least some of your concerns here when I finish this, but tomorrow, I am going to ISO Pilica in sf3 and compare it here.
I won't spend too many words talking about meta, but I'm kind of expecting it to leap out at me like Spiny did in s6 finals where it'd be like
close to impossible for Pilica to be a wolf
that's just what her headspace is to me tonally, she feels so different from sf3, everything is consistent.
also I haven't ruled out Wiml yet
its kind of clicking that someone might look at what I'm doing and think its too similar to what you already did in that post, though
kinda too far in not to do it at this point though
tl;dr pilica in a precarious state in my reads, townread her but don't know if I should, that post helped me feel a bit to a good bit better, though. Ask again in about 18 hours and I will tell you, definitively, whether she is a wolf or not with enough confidence to where I should never be reversing the read.
I'll stay tuned. Wanna chat? I have a question for you.
As players become more familiar with each other, how likely is it that they use really level 0 reads to read the other? EG: "JC is really solvey so I think that makes him town".
There is something to be said about this specifically in video mafia; many, many, many years ago, before my parents even knew I wasn't straight, before I had met my fiance, before so much other things in my life had happened, I played video mafia religiously. I had a read on another player, and this happened pretty quick actually, maybe after we had played 20 games together, where I would get his alignment based on the lines on his face. I was 100% on it for something like 25 games, its the stupidest read I've ever really had on someone, but I can tell you, beyond any bull$%#!, that it worked. When the lines on his face were a lower case n, he was town, when the lines on his face were a lower case u, he was mafia. (It could be the other way around it was like 8 years ago at this point, it was one or the other and the actual history is well lost to time by now). The read no longer works and hasn't worked in at least half a decade, almost definitely longer.
What level is that read even on? I don't $%#!ing know. I knew him semi-well then, I know him well to very well now, and it developed after a decently sized amount of games.
I do think that the more you know someone, the better you can get at reading them and the more likely you can get a soulread on them. I still have a good read on that player, to the point where I have bet time off of the game, like said stuff like "I will not play mafia for x amount of months if I am wrong on this player" and never been wrong on them.
There are also players who I've known for about as long that I'm $%#! at reading, but also know well. Its just how mafia is, I guess. Also is an area where I could do better.
If you'll allow my ego, some of it is related to how good the other players are. There are some players on my home forum who, at times, have had incredibly obvious volume tells, and I'd say that's level 0.
For stuff specifically in the vein of "Jc is really solvey...," I'd say that stuff becomes a bit rarer. It would become something stupid, something Zen and unexplainable like my facial line read, or something more developed.
Also that stuff is more common earlier on in the game and those reads naturally give way later but that's the level 0 answer to your question.
I had a feeling you wanted the long answer here, sorry if you didn't, just trying to give you what I think you'd want.
prelude to my incoming post
boq is outed
Ooo, lot's of details. Thanks for sharing.
Gotcha. So you can have level 0 reads on players you know well, but these will mostly be on the basis of it being specifically applicable to that player. Right.
Given you know Vandy extremely well, can you explain your headspace when one of the few times you doubted Vandy, it was for a very non-specific level 0 read:
I've believed this since before my first forum mafia game, actually. I was lurking and reading a game where the man who I am engaged to posted something like what vandy did there, and it was the post that got him killed. The fact that I call it a cheerleader-y post is actually quoting the very push that someone who has repped my home forum made on him in that game, I'll even try to find that post because maybe you can actually see my process as townie there:
looking back, this isn't like
exactly the same, and danceguy's post isn't what I thought it was in memory.
there's a post SOMEWHERE over the past however many years, god knows I might not even be within three so I'm not going to look for it, where its a lot closer to what vandy did this game, and I led the kill on that person d1 (or d0 since its FFR) and they flipped red
Its my missed shot this game; its where I should've questioned my townread more.
I saw that post of mine when I was doing what I've been doing now and I kicked myself
also fwiw I don't think that's a level 0 read I think its a good one that I mean
its just not level 0?
maybe you and I think of level 0 as different things but not super important
should be enough of an answer to your question now.
Right, so perhaps I was unkind in labelling it level 0, but it was unspecific (“wolves do this slightly more”) and it amounts to “he could be faking looking easy to work with” which I think is very level 0 for the experience that you and Vandy share.
Perhaps it’s a me problem, but at the very least if you’re applying this generic schematic, I would expect you to touch on why that is wolfy for Vandy. Because you know him. Very well.
This is not me saying that your reads are level 0. This is me saying that you labelling a generic wolfy behaviour without applying it to someone you have experience on is out of place.
Anyways. I won’t take up more of your time on that front.
i feel like i get static because people think too much pairings pre-flip so I am only "allowed" (not really allowed but like) to look at a very small few amount of people. I will look at what's independently wolfy tbh
your progression on vandy is, by far, the worst by anyone not named The Sun Fan and I have the burden/luxury or being a villager
this is taking a long-$%#! time to get going, and I'm going to be miserable tomorrow for it, but I'm not sleeping without finishing this.