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Thread: Season 9, Game 3: Mafia Circus [Mafia Championship]

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  1. ISO #2351
    Thread Analyst sothys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2350)
    Quote Originally Posted by sothys (#2349)
    also dont agree that "tunnel is an action"
    picking up something in an action
    tunneling is being obsesive, being sure someone is mafia, is also obsesive.
    It is active if you read it in context.
    I think you’re stuck on this because you’re tunnelling 😬
    i said as much myself, which is why i try to step out and present it from an some what objective perspective.

    Hapa accuses me of tunneling on them early, when in reality i have a vote on them, they pick up their work, and i admit that i like that from them and would flip my read to town if i start agreeing with the work they do, that is not tunneling.

    yet they are allready ignoreing me at that point, and points out again at EOD that ive been tunneling them. Its just readable not true if people care to iso us.

    the biggest argument in my head is that hapa does not look like a strong town!player*, i dont think they will manage to lynch me today, especially with them being mostly afk today (please note that i dont factor this into anything) but if they manage to get me lynched at EOD, i want to make sure that at the very least they do not get to control Day3. Again i have the uniqe perspective of allready knowing they are wrong. you cant have that.

    *i am sure that overall they are a strong player, so to me, it looks like a wolf that has a hard time potraying a solving town position, but somehow has the world fooled.

  2. ISO #2352
    Thread Analyst sothys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HellsBells (#2264)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackofhearts2005 (#2261)
    Quote Originally Posted by roro__b (#2245)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackofhearts2005 (#2243)
    I tried to make a base math joke after realizing 2 players are voting for HK but not base 10 math is hard
    in spirit im still on hk but rhand is not towny and im tryna see how theyre not paired together but im prolly colored by rhands recent posts just being.... uh. yeah something and i feel like rhand is legit someone others than me should take a look at. skim the posts i responded to and specifically p#2220 (it was the one that i posted about me having talked about their pairing before, that was just some quotesearching and dumpin but it seems just as legit today as it did before). I know i talked about it with one of them or if it was someone else and that i thought that if one is wolf its hk and definitely not v/v but im feeling the w/w now.
    Spirit votes give me the heebie jeebies. That’s not me saying you’re scum or you need to switch back to HK right now. I’m js.
    Sorry but I can't help myself. Maybe we should get a ouijia board and Ricardo and Temmie can communicate to us through specchat and tell us who to vote! (aka I agree with you Jack)
    isoing both of them and giving a slight +1 to their oppinions should be on every!town players todo list.
    its d1 so its not like their oppinions should weigh overly much, but atleast we know they come from a town perspective

  3. ISO #2353
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wangalang (#2318)
    hi everyone

    ive been feeling violently not in the mood for social deduction all day

    so i apologise for being away

    i do have this evening to sift and read because i realise EOD is approaching and i am gonna make the executive decision to not be there because i want to have a good sleep before i work out on sunday

    SO that being said if you are to vote me and i am condemned day 2:

    - u MUST list out reasons. since i'll flip town it's crucial for these guys to know why u voted for me and if it's passable as an excuse
    - would prefer u state your intentions to within the next 4 hours that i'm awake so i can defend/make a case for myself rather than last min pivots

    i do NOT want to vote these ppl today:
    - nanook
    - jack
    - roro
    - hapa

    even tho i have not caught up i doubt my reads will change on this. hopefully after reading i will have a better idea.

    POE is currently standing at:
    - ente
    - POSSIBLY hollowkatt for calling me "obvious town" which i LOVE being called obviously but apparently my play isn't even locktown since people suspect me lmao. wonder how genuine this

    thanks for reading am going to eat dinner and i'll be back later for some reading !! (for real, it's 7pm and i feel a lot better now)
    Aren't all of the people in your don't vote group (including myself) also calling you obvious town in some form or fashion? Whats the difference?

    Also I support prioritizing sleep over eod lol, good choice

  4. ISO #2354
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Speaking of, i did not get enough so expect somewhat grouchy nanook today. I'll try to keep it toned down as much as I can, if I come off harsh or argumentative it's not cause I'm attacking you its just cause I'm sick and tired, ill do my best to keep it friendly tho

  5. ISO #2355
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sothys (#2322)
    @Rhand vs @roro_b
    seems like t/t fight to me.
    its allso getting realy spamming with Wall of Quotes, to the point where since im not voting either of them today, ill read through it when one of them flips.
    I kinda think there's one between them

    Although I thibk that in part because of this post so...you probably don't need to respond to this lol

  6. ISO #2356
    Hee Ho! Jackofhearts2005's Avatar
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    I don’t agree with every single point but I largely like Santy’s big HK/Rhand/Sothys iso. It’s a good look for Santy and overall, some good info.

  7. ISO #2357
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wangalang (#2330)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#1919)
    I didn't think they worked with hk earlier, im not 100% they do tbh but I found that post i linked above while going through stuff now that looks pretty teamed imo, and their later vote on hk isn't really as unpaired as I thought before, so I think they're definitely a viable pair atp

    Although I don't think them hk and sothys all work as a team, if that were the team sothys probably either busses hk or just stays parked, i...don't really see any reason to move to your third party as a vanity wagon that highlights that you're saving your other partner? Idk im not locked on that conclusion but it's where im at rn

    I do think they work as a team sans hk, ime sometimes mafia will move their vote to a vanity wagon on their teammate late when its t/t wagons thinking it'll look good down the road and/or forgetting that it won't get them cred the next day (sort of a "this was a better vote but nobody knows it" situation if that makes sense)
    totally agree with this point btw

    (yes i am literally this far behind lmaoooo)

    my ONLY slight qualm not putting hk/sothys on the same spy team is that maybe sothys was trying to get look good defending old mate. but then didn't realise HK had 5 votes lol and felt pressure when i asked to vote hk?


    sothys was defending themselves and lowkey crying a river yesterday so i am slightly hesitant to vote him today, also a lot of others share this sentiment!
    I think hk and sothys work as a team. I don't think all three of hk/sothys/ramp work together

  8. ISO #2358
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sothys (#2328)
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#796)
    I understand that your position is that I am "forcing a case" someone you perceive as an "easy lynch", "lynchbait", or whatever. Just understand two things:

    1) An important part of how I read players is to tunnel them and evaluate responses. I really have no incentive or motive to be perfectly objective in doing so.
    2) I think it is a grave mistake to ignore players that you perceive as "lynchbait", because you can easily end up with a thread full of them later in the game with little to no direction on what to do.
    I read Hapa's ISO with this in mind and I think I see what bothers you.
    He says he evaluates responses but he's more the kind that talks about players than actually engaging with them. Which is NAI in itself (unless you have meta).
    I've always liked his readlists and still do after another reread.
    I'm not sure where that piece of self-meta came from though: it's not really what I felt him doing.

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    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ente (#2334)
    Quote Originally Posted by Tilgarial (#2235)
    What's giving you bad feels about jack?
    To much self confidence. Can't explain it right now.
    I will just keep waiting here and look how the game is going on.
    Yeah self confidence is suuuuuuper scummy, good catch

  10. ISO #2360
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2335)
    Quote Originally Posted by sothys (#2328)
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#796)

    I understand that your position is that I am "forcing a case" someone you perceive as an "easy lynch", "lynchbait", or whatever. Just understand two things:

    1) An important part of how I read players is to tunnel them and evaluate responses. I really have no incentive or motive to be perfectly objective in doing so.
    2) I think it is a grave mistake to ignore players that you perceive as "lynchbait", because you can easily end up with a thread full of them later in the game with little to no direction on what to do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#1515)
    I will be perfectly clear Sothys: I don't particularly like conversing with people who I'm convinced are mafia. it does not lead to productive conversations and only encourages to tunnel more.

    I am only interested in two things from you and will leave it at that:
    1) What are your reads, specifically, who is mafia?
    2) Whatever explanation you have for your EoD play.

    I literally couldn't care less about anything else.
    you flip flop your reasonings for why you do stuff to fit the situation you find yourself in.
    then you decide someone is wolf on a very very thin basis "temmie manufactored his entrance"
    once that is established you push push push and non of the flipflopping is left its just straight to the target.

    In you temmie case you dont sound certain at all:
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#1086)
    Re: NormalTemmie

    I can summarize NormalTemmie's filter as such:
    - Brief stint of engagement early in the game.
    - "Catchup" phase wherein NormalTemmie re-reads the game in real time, actively responding to old posts, with minimal engagement with the "present" thread.
    - Longform post describing town/scum reads, but almost entirely focusing on Wanga being "mafia".

    Now none of this is necessarily alignment indicative on its face. The "catchup" phase (quoting and responding to old posts while you read them) is mostly a stylistic thing. In addition, a "longform" post consolidating your thoughts is also a stylistic thing. However, I have two problems with this:

    As someone previously pointed out (don't remember who... Jack maybe?), NormalTemmie almost immediately fixates on one of Wanga's older posts and votes for Wanga in "real time" (Wanga's post was #355, Normal Temmie's vote was in #733). NormalTemmie then basically bombs a longform "case on Wanga", essentially nitpicking Wanga's entire filter in calling her mafia. This reads a lot like someone who came into the thread with a specific mafia-oriented goal in mind (looking good by pushing a mislynch).

    Where I think this "differs" from a townie simply getting tunneled on a target is that the longform case really wasn't necessary and seems designed to "look like effort". The other thing is that NormalTemmie throughout her catchup phase is very sensitive to pressure and the thread's opinion on NT's play:
    Quote Originally Posted by NormalTemmie (#736)
    i know i have made some posts in the past hour that might (or might not) have got responses but ill respond to them later im still reading previous posts to help me grasp the full picture of whats happening whos accusing who so please excuse me
    But just in general: this has been a pretty difficult Day 1, in that there's a lot of "lynchbait" and non-native english speakers to sort through. I think a lot of townies can sympathize with not feeling 100% locked on reads. NT's filter just seems too... confident and manufactured given how that slot caught up in the game and how that slot presents their experience playing the game.
    Ok so we sympatise with not being locked its a difficult day1 after all.

    and then you just go full politician hammering the "VOTE TEMMIE" train, tryint to convince people to vote with you, rather than letting them form their own oppinion.
    Wheres the townperson secondguessing yourself in this?
    where is the valuing other peoples oppionin, instead of pushing your aggenda ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#1146)
    Jack, has your opinion below (re: Temmie) changed?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jackofhearts2005 (#848)
    ##Vote NormalTemmie
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackofhearts2005 (#849)
    Like explain to me the logic of being post 733 and voting based on somebody telling a joke in post 355? It was like the 12th post Wangalang made. I didn't like it either but it's a weird thing to call out and vote based off of.

    I don't really like Ricardo's vote on Temmie, either, but oh well. "Voting for pressure" is so pre-learning-to-actually-play-Jack, back when roleclaims were the alpha and the omega of reading players.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#1216)
    Actually that does beg the question: @hollowkatt - why are you not voting Temmie given the "spicy" post?
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#1254)
    Ricardo and HellsBells - can I convince either of you to vote for Temmie?
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#1264)
    Quote Originally Posted by HellsBells (#1258)
    I'm still reading through, but I think currently I feel like Ramp is a better yeet than Temmie at this time. But I'm open to being persuaded.
    I dont want to be in a position of hard defending Rampo... it's not like his play is super inspiring. I just think that Temmie's play is more demonstrably manufactured. Re: Rampo, I still have my doubts, like him tunneling Nanook is not particularly optimal or convenient for him if he is struggling to stay alive.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#1270)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rampposi (#1268)
    If you say it's hurting town, I'm willing to vote for someone else and put nanook aside and reread them end of D2/D3. Who do you suggest?
    Temmie plz.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#1333)
    Quote Originally Posted by Ricardo (#1330)
    wot

    i thought you didn't see anything wrong with Temmie?
    COME TO ME MY ARMY OF SHEEP
    my conclusion is that my only reason to town hapa is that alot of people town them and i dont want to be mr reverse tunnel, but here we are.

    I am not saying wolf!haopa because he is the driving factor in timmies death, its all about his weak $%#! case building into full on tunnel with inconsistant reasoning as to his own actions. Hes lying and he cant keep track of his lies.

    ##Vote Hapa
    The first part of this case is flawed: He talks about developing a read when he says he tunnels them and about being sure somene is scum when he says he avoids interaction. It's not the same situation.

    The second part of your case made me think. You're right that he's trying very hard to get Temmie lynched while self-admittedly not being sure that he's correct.
    The question is just: why? Why would scum push a Day 1 wagon as hard as Hapa did? Why not simply let town take the blame for a misyeet? I could see him doing it if Rampposi is scum because that was the wagon in lead when Hapa started shopping around for more votes, so it might be an attempt to save Rampposi. But a Hapa - Rampposi team also doesn't seem to work:

    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#751)
    Quote Originally Posted by Tilgarial (#749)
    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#732)
    Sure.

    It's not a meta read (I don't think I've played with anyone in this thread before) - I'm profiling him by taking his own statements about his play. This is what I've gathered:
    1. He is unfamiliar with forum mafia in that he is not familiar with basic acronyms.
    2. He seems to come from a German site, and might not be familiar with playing in English altogether
    3. He presents himself as a casual player.

    All and all, I am expecting this type of player (in an unfamiliar environment) to be lost and confused. More paranoia, more wishy-washyness, etc.

    When looking through his filter, instead I find a lot of mechanics talk and fairly confident/quick town reads, which is a) substanceless, and b) indicative of him having "extra information" (mafia knowing alignments).
    anyways, before I forget, does this

    Quote Originally Posted by Arapocalypse (#2)
    I've been playing social deduction games mostly for fun. Because I mainly play for fun, I do not consider myself a "professional" or "tryhard". Although I can be competitive if I am really hyped. Which leads also to my downfall. When I get to hyped, I can get impulsive and may draw conclusions soon and short, so people may not understand properly what I meant to say.
    part of their(rampossi's) introduction change your opinion somehow?
    No, and I did read the section about being impulsive and drawing quick conclusions. however, that appears to be in the context of being "hyped" (i.e. tunneling, arguments, etc), and he has not emotionally presented that way in his town reads.
    Hapa boosted the Ramp wagon and that's where it got going.
    It would be very weird to first give a boost to your buddy's wagon and then jump ship to save said buddy.

    And I really see no merit in his play of hardcore trying to get Temmie lynched if there was no buddy to protect from getting lynched in the mafia!Hapa world.

    While as town he maybe simply believed his own case enough.
    Counterpoint: some mafia play aggressively.


    [To be clear i still townread hapa, but "why would mafia hard push town ???" Is just not compelling to me without an accompanying reason why that specific player wouldn't, rather than a broad "this is how mafia act" statement]

  11. ISO #2361
    Hee Ho! Jackofhearts2005's Avatar
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    Dobby’s blow up still not digested. I am not Dobby. It’s hard for me to vibe with Dobby’s mental state, there. I keep feeling like it’s an excuse to derail but it’s not derailing and there is some evidence for w!Rhand.

    I need to look back at the s7 semi to see Rhand’s play. How sloppy/paranoid was his play there such that I can see some of the holes in his play here as character/skill driven and not like driven from being a wolf? That sounds super harsh but I don’t know how to word it better.

  12. ISO #2362
    Hee Ho! Jackofhearts2005's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ente (#2334)
    Quote Originally Posted by Tilgarial (#2235)
    What's giving you bad feels about jack?
    To much self confidence. Can't explain it right now.
    I will just keep waiting here and look how the game is going on.
    Lol my self confidence level here is a step below my baseline.

  13. ISO #2363
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    ##Vote hollowkatt

    I still kinda prefer sothys or ramp but we're at the point we should start considering a bit

  14. ISO #2364
    Hee Ho! Jackofhearts2005's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by roro__b (#2297)
    I'm actually asleep right now but gotta say, i opened up santygrass iso from the s6g10 (2019) and i see words like kawaii and chan and idk


    Meanwhile, Johanna in specchat: “Cringe.”

  15. ISO #2365
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Ok HK probably actually is scum lol

    Remember my rhand read? Useless for HK, over a larger sample he doesn't have a meaningful difference. BUT! He does have a fairly meaningful soft volume tell. Basically, the more he posts in relation to the rest of the thread, the more likely he is to be town. If he has 11+ % of the game's posts, probably town, 7% or less, probably mafia (the overlap is around 9% if you're curious). This game he has 7.2% (7.4 if you want to be generous and use the number when he left thread last), so that's trending towards mafia.

    Only one player capped yesterday and probably only one or two of us are going to today, and hk wasn't/isn't that close to cap anyways, so thats irrelevant. I don't think I'd clear him for a higher volume given its champs and he may have tried to be more active as mafia (im not sure how aware of this disparity he is, if at all), but I think the lower volume is fairly suggestive here.

  16. ISO #2366
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    The basic idea in more traditional terms is that hk stays on top of the thread more as town than as mafia and he's closer to his scum game than his town game here in that regard

  17. ISO #2367
    Thread Analyst Santygrass's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by roro__b (#2301)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2299)
    @roro__b I will get to your posts when I’m at work. Soaking in my bath tub now.

    @Santygrass maybe this will get you out of your tunnel because your main beef with me seems to be that I wasn’t very present at EoD. Try multi isoing you and me and compare your own impact in the last hour of the Day with mine. It’s on page 4.

    @HellsBells I come from a site with Day phases that last weeks. We capitalise the “d” of day when talking about a game day to distinguish from a real time day to avoid confusion. (so yesterday is the real yesterday and yesterDay is the previous Day phase of the game)
    Don't feel pressured to, I prolly won't have any more time to spend on it, nor posts. And I'm not sure how much it'd add. If I'm alive til tomorrow maybe we can talk but either way, not sure it's very meaningful, I don't ghonk I'm gonna get there on understanding where your reads on me came from so it'd be a waste of effort prolly because im not gonna care much for it. I'll read you based on other things and anything else that me related because that bridge is burned

    I forgot to say, santy, i was going to dedicate that post to your catchup and then i saw rhands post and it lit another flame in me tbh - I appreciate the work you put in to that. It is a very very specific way of approaching stuff but I guess multi Islington 3 scumreads would concentrate their posts/interactions and would give clues if focus was on that?

    Also, explain further please why you're saying sothys is towny/more of a townread for you because

    I think at least 10 of those sothys post you link, you've commented something negative/called it wolfy, Where's the good stuff? 1201/1203 that you quoted and said you wanted to tunnel him for - but (and then i dont follow your reasoning)?

    Or did you just include the bad stuff in the quotedump?
    Quote Originally Posted by sothys (#2319)
    Quote Originally Posted by hollowkatt (#2305)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2300)
    Oh also @roro__b you’re a read that keeps flipping in my head. We have a lot of similarities in our play but we seem to misunderstand each other all the time and keep scumreading each other over those misunderstandings.
    When you’re calling me out on things, I often think “pot, kettle”. Like not reading your posts well, nitpicking on things that aren’t worth nitpicking about, generally misunderstanding where you come from… you do all of it too from where I am sitting.

    The thing is that I recognise the play and believe that you’re not out of your scum range. One minute I think you’re mafia and the next I think I’m wrong and that read keeps shifting.

    @hollowkatt I do not want to ignore you. I just felt like you were setting a trap for me and I didn’t want to continue that conversation. Can you at least get where I’m coming from there being pretty sure mafia is talking to me and already saying they’re going to tunnel me because of the conversation while it’s just started? And how that feels like a trap?
    I've read this post like 3 times in the last 10 minutes and I keep coming back to the thought "how can a wolf set a trap for town"?

    Like yes, a wolf can work to get a town mischopped, a wolf can work to spread suspicion so that the townie isn't listened to thereby eliminating a "today" threat, but someone with a green PM thinking "this player, who I wolf read, is trying to trap me into being tunneled and will work to discredit me" isn't something I can wrap my head around.

    Now if you were town reading me and I were wolf reading you then yes, I could see "HK is setting a trap for me" being a logical thought from that perspective, but from a "Rhand town vs HK wolf" perspective it just doesn't grok.

    Maybe that's a language barrier thing, I know you're ESL basically, but at the end of the day I can't say I agree or understand where you're coming from.

    I am trying to defend myself from accusations, you are an accuser, and in my defense I call you out on things and your first thought is "HK the wolf is trapping me" and not "maybe I'm wrong and maybe HK is town" is just weird.

    Claiming I am a wolf and then bailing out of the conversation when your conclusion is called into question reeks of "this push isn't actually going to work and I need to bail"
    or
    "oh $%#! I am pushing town"

    For your sake I hope it's the latter.
    this i really like, and i have a town read on rhand

    but i tought the same(ish) thing when that post was made.


    @Santygrass
    obv happy that your starting to reach the right conclusion about me.
    BUT why are you multi isoing 3 unkonwns, off the basis that one of them flips red ?

    actuall @everybody
    it feels like alot of people are doing their work of a "HK wolf lets find spew" basis.
    its insane, to the level of, any towns person working out of this perspective "hk wolf because they where counter wagon D1" and has their entire day focused on that, should proberly just be on sus list.

    i mean we are wasting an entire day if they flip green?!?
    I mean, they arent 3 unknnows, they are my most sus. I started with the joke that I am aware that this could lead into tunnel, but really I wanted to have a clear picture and stuff.

    And I also put arguments like, individually about each of yo, its like having individual cases on you + If any of you could work together.

    Now, answrring roro about Sothys. Yes, they do have post I dont like. But they have post that I feel towny or can make the vote play like somewhat believable if sothys is T. Him at the start saying the wagons team, saying a glory wolf team of 4 and not three, the DeathNote kinda post and stuff. And finally, I dont think its likely that he and Rhand are W/W. Im mostly basing it in the 'Oh its the danish guy' realization that Rhand had, but looking at the Iso i did I found connection between Rhand and Hk, and in comparison Sothys kindof not fits. So, unless Rhand flips green, im okay with Sothys is town mindset and move along .

    Quote Originally Posted by Ente (#2341)
    Quote Originally Posted by Santygrass (#2285)
    But btw this is true in that ENTE should be the one refuting Rhand. It weirded me a lot that Ente let it slip, to later make clarifications.
    Why are you so much insisting on this. I have already cleared this point? And you were also reacting on it.

    Scum vibes.
    Honestly, I dont remember it, and if i read it It didnt convince me so cant say its cmeared? Like I still think its weird and im not going to ignore that/?


    Anyways how do you feel about the wagons rn Ente?

  18. ISO #2368
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2365)
    Ok HK probably actually is scum lol

    Remember my rhand read? Useless for HK, over a larger sample he doesn't have a meaningful difference. BUT! He does have a fairly meaningful soft volume tell. Basically, the more he posts in relation to the rest of the thread, the more likely he is to be town. If he has 11+ % of the game's posts, probably town, 7% or less, probably mafia (the overlap is around 9% if you're curious). This game he has 7.2% (7.4 if you want to be generous and use the number when he left thread last), so that's trending towards mafia.

    Only one player capped yesterday and probably only one or two of us are going to today, and hk wasn't/isn't that close to cap anyways, so thats irrelevant. I don't think I'd clear him for a higher volume given its champs and he may have tried to be more active as mafia (im not sure how aware of this disparity he is, if at all), but I think the lower volume is fairly suggestive here.
    I just looked at 2 mafia and 2 town games from HK and I found another tell. HK doesn't hold on to jokeposting long when he's scum. And he keeps doing it while slowly mixing in serious posts as town. Which is what he did here. I'm gonna get flak for this 180 but meta strongly suggests he's town and I'm not gonna vote him out.

    ##Unvote hollowkatt

  19. ISO #2369
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2368)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2365)
    Ok HK probably actually is scum lol

    Remember my rhand read? Useless for HK, over a larger sample he doesn't have a meaningful difference. BUT! He does have a fairly meaningful soft volume tell. Basically, the more he posts in relation to the rest of the thread, the more likely he is to be town. If he has 11+ % of the game's posts, probably town, 7% or less, probably mafia (the overlap is around 9% if you're curious). This game he has 7.2% (7.4 if you want to be generous and use the number when he left thread last), so that's trending towards mafia.

    Only one player capped yesterday and probably only one or two of us are going to today, and hk wasn't/isn't that close to cap anyways, so thats irrelevant. I don't think I'd clear him for a higher volume given its champs and he may have tried to be more active as mafia (im not sure how aware of this disparity he is, if at all), but I think the lower volume is fairly suggestive here.
    I just looked at 2 mafia and 2 town games from HK and I found another tell. HK doesn't hold on to jokeposting long when he's scum. And he keeps doing it while slowly mixing in serious posts as town. Which is what he did here. I'm gonna get flak for this 180 but meta strongly suggests he's town and I'm not gonna vote him out.

    ##Unvote hollowkatt
    Alarm alarm alarm

  20. ISO #2370
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    This one is anecdotal but I think hk promising to do stuff then not following up is somewhat AI too

  21. ISO #2371
    Thread Analyst Santygrass's Avatar
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    And dont read my performance in my previous champs game ohgod. I mean, my perspective on how to play the game is the same (Not tryharding to pass champs or something, having fun with mafia with people who tryhard I find enjoyable and stuff) But well, language barrier might be a thing there too, but that last EoD still haunts me, I wasnt available and omg how the thing flipped and ended in a lose smh.


    Rhand, if you unvote hk, where are you thinking of moving the vote then?

  22. ISO #2372
    Thread Analyst Santygrass's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2299)
    @roro__b I will get to your posts when I’m at work. Soaking in my bath tub now.

    @Santygrass maybe this will get you out of your tunnel because your main beef with me seems to be that I wasn’t very present at EoD. Try multi isoing you and me and compare your own impact in the last hour of the Day with mine. It’s on page 4.

    @HellsBells I come from a site with Day phases that last weeks. We capitalise the “d” of day when talking about a game day to distinguish from a real time day to avoid confusion. (so yesterday is the real yesterday and yesterDay is the previous Day phase of the game)
    Forgot to answer to this. I think u are partially right. From my PoV , both Temmie and hk were scum and I was about to dine wolf meat either way. If a wagon formed about wanga or more votes on Ramp for example I would be more vocal / trying to counterpush more. You clearly preferring hk over Temmie there isnt the exact same position as mine was I think

  23. ISO #2373
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2370)
    This one is anecdotal but I think hk promising to do stuff then not following up is somewhat AI too
    Yeh but that can be written off as real life.
    I took his most recent mafia and town game and the ones from champs 2017 (game 6 and semifinal 2).
    It seems obvious that he can't do what he did here as scum. He goes serious very fast.

    Quote Originally Posted by Santygrass (#2371)
    And dont read my performance in my previous champs game ohgod. I mean, my perspective on how to play the game is the same (Not tryharding to pass champs or something, having fun with mafia with people who tryhard I find enjoyable and stuff) But well, language barrier might be a thing there too, but that last EoD still haunts me, I wasnt available and omg how the thing flipped and ended in a lose smh.


    Rhand, if you unvote hk, where are you thinking of moving the vote then?
    I have no clue. I'm going to dive a bit deeper in HK meta first to be entirely sure. If HK really is town, then EoD / SoD hopefully gives me the leads I need.

  24. ISO #2374
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2373)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2370)
    This one is anecdotal but I think hk promising to do stuff then not following up is somewhat AI too
    Yeh but that can be written off as real life.
    I took his most recent mafia and town game and the ones from champs 2017 (game 6 and semifinal 2).
    It seems obvious that he can't do what he did here as scum. He goes serious very fast.

    Quote Originally Posted by Santygrass (#2371)
    And dont read my performance in my previous champs game ohgod. I mean, my perspective on how to play the game is the same (Not tryharding to pass champs or something, having fun with mafia with people who tryhard I find enjoyable and stuff) But well, language barrier might be a thing there too, but that last EoD still haunts me, I wasnt available and omg how the thing flipped and ended in a lose smh.


    Rhand, if you unvote hk, where are you thinking of moving the vote then?
    I have no clue. I'm going to dive a bit deeper in HK meta first to be entirely sure. If HK really is town, then EoD / SoD hopefully gives me the leads I need.
    I mean thats

    Much easier to fake/adjust than my thing lol

  25. ISO #2375
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2374)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2373)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2370)
    This one is anecdotal but I think hk promising to do stuff then not following up is somewhat AI too
    Yeh but that can be written off as real life.
    I took his most recent mafia and town game and the ones from champs 2017 (game 6 and semifinal 2).
    It seems obvious that he can't do what he did here as scum. He goes serious very fast.

    Quote Originally Posted by Santygrass (#2371)
    And dont read my performance in my previous champs game ohgod. I mean, my perspective on how to play the game is the same (Not tryharding to pass champs or something, having fun with mafia with people who tryhard I find enjoyable and stuff) But well, language barrier might be a thing there too, but that last EoD still haunts me, I wasnt available and omg how the thing flipped and ended in a lose smh.


    Rhand, if you unvote hk, where are you thinking of moving the vote then?
    I have no clue. I'm going to dive a bit deeper in HK meta first to be entirely sure. If HK really is town, then EoD / SoD hopefully gives me the leads I need.
    I mean thats

    Much easier to fake/adjust than my thing lol
    How did you even measure that? Are you taking into account when he dies?

  26. ISO #2376
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2375)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2374)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2373)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2370)
    This one is anecdotal but I think hk promising to do stuff then not following up is somewhat AI too
    Yeh but that can be written off as real life.
    I took his most recent mafia and town game and the ones from champs 2017 (game 6 and semifinal 2).
    It seems obvious that he can't do what he did here as scum. He goes serious very fast.

    Quote Originally Posted by Santygrass (#2371)
    And dont read my performance in my previous champs game ohgod. I mean, my perspective on how to play the game is the same (Not tryharding to pass champs or something, having fun with mafia with people who tryhard I find enjoyable and stuff) But well, language barrier might be a thing there too, but that last EoD still haunts me, I wasnt available and omg how the thing flipped and ended in a lose smh.


    Rhand, if you unvote hk, where are you thinking of moving the vote then?
    I have no clue. I'm going to dive a bit deeper in HK meta first to be entirely sure. If HK really is town, then EoD / SoD hopefully gives me the leads I need.
    I mean thats

    Much easier to fake/adjust than my thing lol
    How did you even measure that? Are you taking into account when he dies?
    It's easy to measure, just divide his posts at death/end of game by posts in the thread at the same time.

    Theres a bit of noise for modbot posts but not that much

  27. ISO #2377
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    You seriously looked game per game to where he died and what post# that was to get this statistic?
    That's... wow

  28. ISO #2378
    Thread Analyst wangalang's Avatar
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    12am reads

    honestly i'm super overwhelmed, and i am really not sure how hard people go as mafia in forum. because i haven't been around this week

    look at post 2000 rhand is literally linking stuff and talking about it holy $%#! girl queen pussy boss this game is hard

    dude i skimmed some pages

    my reads really stand the same

    nanook jack town
    i am reading hellsbells as towny i think hells if they are mafia could reveal to be maf in day 3/4 vibes
    hapa is leaning town

    i said earlier i do not want to vote roro

    i believe this is still the case


    no i have not read rhand/roro yet sorry i went to play avalon

    i will leave my vote on hollowkatt if that's the way people are leaning. otherwise i would be down to vote ente today.

  29. ISO #2379
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2377)
    You seriously looked game per game to where he died and what post# that was to get this statistic?
    That's... wow
    It didn't take *that* long tbh

  30. ISO #2380
    Thread Analyst wangalang's Avatar
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    $%#! i feel bad for not being around and slacking today

    i am actually town tho but am gonna priorotise sleeping

    also, if we are voting in HK and sothy since sothys defended themselves quite well i felt like they were pleading i'd much rather vote hk

  31. ISO #2381
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Anyways, I agree that bumping up postcount to fight that statistic as a wolf would be hard to fake.
    The problem is that it's the other way around: a lower postcount doesn't automatically mean wolf. Town can have less posts than usual for all kinds of reasons that have nothing to do with the game.

    I'm gonna spend some time in ISO's of him to confirm / deny what I think I see on the first pages of those games.

    (on a sidenote: I think it's hilarious that we decided to go look for out of game evidence at the same time)

  32. ISO #2382
    Thread Analyst wangalang's Avatar
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    ente/ramp/HK/maybe santy (he kinda feels towny to me i won't lie)/tilgarial < ---- surely this list has some scum?

  33. ISO #2383
    Thread Analyst wangalang's Avatar
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    my only problem with HK is that HK seems to be the only person pushing tilgarial who was my scum read day one

    maybe scum in tilgarial/HK? Hk mafia townreading me so i won't vote them... HK town also pushing tilgarial mafia??

  34. ISO #2384
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2381)
    Anyways, I agree that bumping up postcount to fight that statistic as a wolf would be hard to fake.
    The problem is that it's the other way around: a lower postcount doesn't automatically mean wolf. Town can have less posts than usual for all kinds of reasons that have nothing to do with the game.

    I'm gonna spend some time in ISO's of him to confirm / deny what I think I see on the first pages of those games.

    (on a sidenote: I think it's hilarious that we decided to go look for out of game evidence at the same time)
    Eh, I mean, he's pretty consistently above 9% as town. Like. I looked at 6 town games across a range of time and it was above in every one, lol.

    I mean yeah its obviously not infallible and probably not reliable enough to base a read on just that in a vacuum, but it suggests that he has trouble staying on top of thread as mafia and I think that tracks with his play here fairly well?

  35. ISO #2385
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    If anything i think the opposite is true, that a higher rate is less reliable than a lower rate, in this champs game specifically.

  36. ISO #2386
    Thread Analyst wangalang's Avatar
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    bro why does rhand have two votes

  37. ISO #2387
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2385)
    If anything i think the opposite is true, that a higher rate is less reliable than a lower rate, in this champs game specifically.
    Hm champs do give a bit of a boost to most people, that's true. I still think bumping up post count is hard to do though. I don't think I can.

    I compared (skimmed) two full town Day 1s to this one. The start is very similar. And the way he throws out reads without explaining them is the same too. The big difference is that towards the end of the Day he starts to have bigger posts and more impact. Here that doesn't really happen.

    I compared one scum Day 1 to this one. The start is very different: he goes faster to being serious, makes bigger posts. And he gives opinions on stuff unprompted.

    All in all his play here looks more like his town game than his scum game:
    + he keeps joking longer
    + he throws empty reads and explains them only when asked
    + his early posts are small
    - he posts less
    - he doesn't have a lot of impact later in Day 1 (but this he has as town and scum both so NAI?)

  38. ISO #2388
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Meh this is enough for me to put him back in my townleans but not enough to go and base a whole new readset on. Sigh.
    Back to the drawing board it is; have to find scum somewhere without tieing them to HK's alignment.

  39. ISO #2389
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    I mean, ok, sure. But that's...pretty easy to change/adjust yeah?

  40. ISO #2390
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    I think most people tend to have a better awareness of "i joke more as town" than of their own volume tell when its not dramatic, but

    Idk

    I'm considering

  41. ISO #2391
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2390)
    I think most people tend to have a better awareness of "i joke more as town" than of their own volume tell when its not dramatic, but

    Idk

    I'm considering
    Yeh the thing is that the volume is mainly lacking from mid Day 1 onwards and that's where he should have impact as both alignments.

  42. ISO #2392
    Thread Analyst wangalang's Avatar
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    i don't want to vote rhand over HK

  43. ISO #2393
    Thread Analyst HellsBells's Avatar
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    Good morning, it’s 6:23 am and I’m back at this motherfuckin circus. I see Rhand has done a 180 on HK doing similar meta research to Nanook, who has come to a completely different conclusion. And the way our wagons are looking I’m not feelin good about that vote in 4 hours. Can we please work to consolidate here???

  44. ISO #2394
    Wants It More NANOOKTHECONQUEROR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2391)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2390)
    I think most people tend to have a better awareness of "i joke more as town" than of their own volume tell when its not dramatic, but

    Idk

    I'm considering
    Yeh the thing is that the volume is mainly lacking from mid Day 1 onwards and that's where he should have impact as both alignments.
    Ok

    Quote Originally Posted by HellsBells (#2393)
    Good morning, it’s 6:23 am and I’m back at this motherfuckin circus. I see Rhand has done a 180 on HK doing similar meta research to Nanook, who has come to a completely different conclusion. And the way our wagons are looking I’m not feelin good about that vote in 4 hours. Can we please work to consolidate here???
    Our research isn't really similar lol

  45. ISO #2395
    Thread Analyst HellsBells's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2391)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2390)
    I think most people tend to have a better awareness of "i joke more as town" than of their own volume tell when its not dramatic, but

    Idk

    I'm considering
    Yeh the thing is that the volume is mainly lacking from mid Day 1 onwards and that's where he should have impact as both alignments.
    So if you’re not confident that HK is scum, who is next on your list? I don’t want to inadvertently mislynch if you’re right, but we have to think about the fact that the day is nearly over and we have votes spread all over the place. If we can’t consolidate at least a little the voting history is going to be useless for day 2.

  46. ISO #2396
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Sothys stuck Hapa in my head. This last post is so... wrong?
    There's been arguments that:
    * Sothys' vote wasn't as bad as it looked
    * My EoD vote got Temmie lynched over HK
    * HellsBells created the big vote swap to Temmie
    * Santygrass staying on Temmie instead of going to Ramp or HK saved HK
    * ... ?

    And yet he says he read it all and apparently the only actions he sees are the ones he opened with. I don't think I believe that. If Sothys is right, then Hapa is going to lead us into 2 mislynches in a row without even bothering to be part of the day's discussions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#2288)
    Yikes I’m probably stuck phone posting for the rest of the day so bear with me.

    Read the 300 posts I’ve missed and… really haven’t changed my reads. Frankly, I have reasons to think everyone is town on some stupid behavioral posting string that they made on some page or whatever.

    Bottom line is I’m focusing on what concrete actions people did around the lynch that suggest mafia motivation, and I keep coming back to Sothys and HK.

    I’ve said what I’ve needed to say.
    Am I seeing ghosts here?

  47. ISO #2397
    Thread Analyst HellsBells's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2394)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2391)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2390)
    I think most people tend to have a better awareness of "i joke more as town" than of their own volume tell when its not dramatic, but

    Idk

    I'm considering
    Yeh the thing is that the volume is mainly lacking from mid Day 1 onwards and that's where he should have impact as both alignments.
    Ok

    Quote Originally Posted by HellsBells (#2393)
    Good morning, it’s 6:23 am and I’m back at this motherfuckin circus. I see Rhand has done a 180 on HK doing similar meta research to Nanook, who has come to a completely different conclusion. And the way our wagons are looking I’m not feelin good about that vote in 4 hours. Can we please work to consolidate here???
    Our research isn't really similar lol
    Okay I guess it’s not but I’m too tired to be pedantic. All I’m saying is Rhand and you both did meta research and come up with the opposite opinion and I don’t know what to do with that.

  48. ISO #2398
    Soul Reader Rhand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HellsBells (#2397)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2394)
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2391)
    Quote Originally Posted by NANOOKTHECONQUEROR (#2390)
    I think most people tend to have a better awareness of "i joke more as town" than of their own volume tell when its not dramatic, but

    Idk

    I'm considering
    Yeh the thing is that the volume is mainly lacking from mid Day 1 onwards and that's where he should have impact as both alignments.
    Ok

    Quote Originally Posted by HellsBells (#2393)
    Good morning, it’s 6:23 am and I’m back at this motherfuckin circus. I see Rhand has done a 180 on HK doing similar meta research to Nanook, who has come to a completely different conclusion. And the way our wagons are looking I’m not feelin good about that vote in 4 hours. Can we please work to consolidate here???
    Our research isn't really similar lol
    Okay I guess it’s not but I’m too tired to be pedantic. All I’m saying is Rhand and you both did meta research and come up with the opposite opinion and I don’t know what to do with that.
    Neither do we lol.

    I'm working hard to find a good yeet.

  49. ISO #2399
    Thread Analyst HellsBells's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhand (#2396)
    Sothys stuck Hapa in my head. This last post is so... wrong?
    There's been arguments that:
    * Sothys' vote wasn't as bad as it looked
    * My EoD vote got Temmie lynched over HK
    * HellsBells created the big vote swap to Temmie
    * Santygrass staying on Temmie instead of going to Ramp or HK saved HK
    * ... ?

    And yet he says he read it all and apparently the only actions he sees are the ones he opened with. I don't think I believe that. If Sothys is right, then Hapa is going to lead us into 2 mislynches in a row without even bothering to be part of the day's discussions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hapa (#2288)
    Yikes I’m probably stuck phone posting for the rest of the day so bear with me.

    Read the 300 posts I’ve missed and… really haven’t changed my reads. Frankly, I have reasons to think everyone is town on some stupid behavioral posting string that they made on some page or whatever.

    Bottom line is I’m focusing on what concrete actions people did around the lynch that suggest mafia motivation, and I keep coming back to Sothys and HK.

    I’ve said what I’ve needed to say.
    Am I seeing ghosts here?
    Bruh. You might be onto something. But Hapa’s Day 1 stuff I remember to be pretty solid? $%#!ing hell I need to get out of bed and get to my monitor, don’t I.

  50. ISO #2400
    Thread Analyst Santygrass's Avatar
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    Where do u want to consolidate Hells? Like, where do you feel like pushing ?

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