Breaking Bad Anonymous (The Thing)

[Brandon Mayhew]

Breaking Bad Anonymous (The Thing) Day 1 Final Votecount

Votes	Target	Voters (Posts in Phase)
6	Lydia Rodarte-Quayle	Hank Schrader (103), Ted Beneke (157), Flynn White (125), Skyler White (234), Hector Salamanca (103), Tuco Salamanca (174)
5	Hank Schrader	Marie Schrader (45), Huell Babineaux (151), Gustavo Fring (146), Gale Boetticher (78), Mike Ehrmantraut (90)
4	Flynn White	Lydia Rodarte-Quayle (14), Walter White (193), Skinny Pete (65), Brandon Mayhew (96)
1	Hector Salamanca	Saul Goodman (45)
1	Not voting	Steve Gomez (0)

View Vote History

Lydia Rodarte-Quayle was eliminated.

Day 1 has ended.

Day 1 ended at 8:00 PM EDT on Tuesday, June 21st, 2022.

Skyler had 200 posts
Tuco and flynn over 150

Not trying to be divisive but to post this much and chose those over anything else isn't towny


I might $%#! post but I like kills and mech to matter

Totally agree

[Brandon Mayhew]

Blowing $%#! Sky(ler) high, a post:

1) Mike was a wolf

This is not immediately evident based on his body of work, or even individual posts from Day One. Mike's clearly a competent player, and Mike posted fairly well. It's the type of wolf I give a pass to on D1 almost always, since there's just not going to be anything damning they do on a D1, especially in a game like this where we had 5 people inactive 2/3 through the phase, or something.

What Mike did do that was wolfy, independent of the fact that he jumped, is that he fell into the trap of staccato progression - post into post into post into post, with very little meandering or exploring things that piqued his curiosity or interest, the way villagers do. It's a type of wolf archetype that fairly good villagers fall into naturally, in my experience, and even more so in an anon game where there's no burden of expectation on your play.

Mike posted well D1 - Mike did not post well enough to be the N1 night kill on the back of being a terrifyingly competent villager.

2) Mike is a wolf who wanted to jump, and probably planned to jump

Mike $%#!ed up. Mike telegraphed what he wanted to do. Mike talked about wanting to rand wolf in this setup, and how fun it'd be to take over players, and that the opportunity doesn't come around often. I think Mike was just trying to do some standard LAMIST-y $%#!, talking about $%#! that made him look like a villager, but really was projecting through his own feelings and excitement on the mechanic. This is the kind of player that jumps out of a widely town read slot for the fun, for the challenge, for the thrill of styling on the game.

There's also the post he made at the end of the phase, where he promised to switch up his playstyle, to be more town, more transparent, more active - this is not a post that meshes at all with the tight triple wagon EoD, where he portrayed hesitation and waffling, this was just not something a villager actually posts or thinks about there when they're waiting to see the flip, and not really sold on what they feel. This is a wolf trying to sell themselves as being the N1 NK, to sell a narrative of "oh he was going to ramp up in activity, so was fearkilled". This was someone trying to use their posts as coming from a confirmed villager (incidentally I think Gale looks better off this, but that's a later thing).

Mike is a wolf. Mike jumped. I'd bet almost anything on that.

3) Mike jumped into a widely town read villager, but one that'd be a challenge for him

This plays into the thing I talked about where Mike jumped not because it was optimal, but because it was fun, interesting, a challenge - Mike is not going to jump into a low impact player that'd be trivial to replicate, he's not going to jump into an afk slot, he's going to swing for the fences and hop into a player that he can be forced into posting a fair bit, but be clear of suspicion, because the assumption was always to be that Mike was a direct NK. I'd even bet Mike planned on jumping out of his current body on N2, and that no one would have batted an eye at it being the N2 NK a lot of the time. Because sure, why not, universally town read, fine player, probably was right about a few things, and it'd case suspicion on people like myself, Ted, Tuco who still live.

Oh no, how many universally town read players are there left that Mike would find it fun to jump into?

4) Anyways, Walter's now a wolf

Yeah, yeah, I'm sure everyone saw this coming, or knows it, unless Tuco is somehow comically wrong and thinks it's Brandon or something. (Seriously, someone of the profile of Mike who thinks this is fun and challenging and exciting isn't going to hop into Brandon and then claim to be sick, he's going to hop into someone universally town read with a fun posting style and high activity, that doesn't get too deep into reasoning. Something he thinks he can replicate in his sleep.

Except he can't.

This is not the same Walter that existed on D1, it's just not. It's like taking words and jamming them into a Walter shaped mold, but the words were all mushy and it fell apart upon hitting the paper and I don't know where I'm going with this.

But this is not Walter White from D1.

Going back to look for his reads from D1 so he can quote them was what first set off flags to me. Then there was the nonsensical thing where he talked about Hank/Marie not being w/w, but did it in a way that made no logical sense if he was actually thinking about it. "Hank is a wolf, but not if Mike was, and the opposite is true" Like...the opposite is true by nature of the first being true, and this is just a wolf saying words.

Him talking about easy worlds and hard worlds when I press him on reads solidified the red flags, because D1 Walter liked to hear themselves talk. They were the one who knocked and took glee in the town reads and attention imo, this just feels like a wolf that doesn't have a good answer in the moment that matches his progression from D1 as Walter (which, if this is Mike is another $%#!up. Gotta make sure you know your D1 reads very well and how to pivot off of them, smh)

Man idk there's not really a glaring post that screams it to me, but on D1 Walter was having fun, looking for people to mason with, had some conviction, had a sense of humor, and I don't really see any of that here and he's just a Mike-shaped Wolf. I wish I had more time to solidify this, which is why I was so cranky at Tuco outing it, but such is life.

Sorry, honey, but enjoy DVC (past and present versions of you)

##Vote Walter White

I’m just seeing this now thru gale iso

[Brandon Mayhew]

And no not reading lol

[Hector Salamanca]

Mike Eod 1
In P#1628 Mike said he intended to form an opinion about Hank. Wording is 'refining my read' probably because in his P#808 he doubted his town read. The expression should imply an Iso of Hank in my opinion, but what was Mike doing? He found a question of Marie and asked if anybody answered it P#1635, with other questions in P#1638 and no analysis of its own
P#1655 I feel it's pockety towards me because he quoted Hank's P#612 where he suspected me. The wording shows that he knows I'm a villager, and so is Hank if Mike is a wolf.
That's because in P#1718 he doesn't seem to care which of Hans and Lydia are voted for elimination. I know no one really cared, but that's wolves heaven iykwim

If anyone thinks these posts were posted by a townie who's refining his read on someone please @ me with your thoughts and explain why like I am 5
P#1659 he announced one hour break and coming back in P#1706 asked Gale why the vote on Hank. The same Hank he voted in P#1655.
And unvoted in P#1709.
I know that when someone has the same opinion as you, a villagery instinct is to approve the read not to question it.

Now let's see what was in the thread. Maybe I find the unvote reason. The p#1707? I doubt.

It's a wishy washy approach on the slot, from the moment he doubted his previous town read until Eod.
There is no direct interaction Mike and Hank.

P#1719 is an indirect push on Lydia

P#1725 quoted my post with my suspicion on Saul making a collection of quotes without sharing opinion. I insisted but he didn't want to share a take in p#1758

P#1749 he is on the fence about Hank, P#1764 defended Hank and P#1772 voted him, said he keeps the vote on Hank P#1823

There is a weak push on Gale in P#1812 and thoughts about w!Hank possible jumping in P#1799.

Conclusion: I don't see a villager trying to find answers by reading posts (he mentioned he read Gale's Iso but there is no proof) and he adds a lot of Wifom, mixing reads, questions and ideas without a conclusion, with the promise of a D2 activity in his last post P#1838.
After reading the Iso for me is very clear that the wolves didn't have any reason to kill this slot, and the agenda I found in his posts make me sure of him being a wolf.

I think Skyler's case is well presented

Any idea why a wolf wouldn't do more than Walter's slot does today is probably just reverse psychology, and I think we need to put pressure on that slot.

[Hector Salamanca]

Can you read Mike's Iso and tell me what impression do you have?

Not really, no. Sorry.

Why?

[Hector Salamanca]

I don’t care if Saul 0 posting today had him town yesterday

Tell me more @Brandon Mayhew

[Brandon Mayhew]

Gale back to townlean

[Brandon Mayhew]

I’m pretty sure Saul is town

i don’t get why you think that?

ISOing him I could draw a straight line through his logical process and why he believes what he does. He didn’t like gale which made him like hector while also thinking Marie had a strong entrance and so on. Very townie mindset very hard to fake as wolf and almost comes off as too awkward to post as wolf

@Hector Salamanca

[Brandon Mayhew]

At what point do I stop townreading tuco

Vote on Lydia and encouraging someone’s paranoid delusions?

[Jesse Pinkman]

if it isn't because he's playing his persona too much, then I'm lost, Huell

well partly, yeah, I enjoyed his persona mixing in seamlessly with some reads d1, sure

today if I had to think 'who is doing the most to widen the poe' it would be gus (he even just tried to get you to scumread me..? lol)

maybe it's town doing some uncomfortable sorting that needs to be done, but that's just how it comes off to me, especially when people seem to respond pretty well and gus consistently doesn't see it or gives the most uncharitable take on the situation.

shrugs

iirc Gus has given me a few reality checks when I was on my way to SR'ing people

[Hector Salamanca]

I still think Gus is pretty solidly town. I'm not locking them in for the content they've posted the way I probably can a couple other people, admittedly, but I just think the lens they're looking at the game through is one of a villager. It's almost a placidness about just sifting through the game and seeing what they think, without bending to the whims of consensus or piggybacking off other things in the thread, their thoughts and reads are unashamedly their own.

Their initial read/progression on Marie is an example of that, where like. They acknowledged others might not see it, and they didn't especially care/weren't going to die on the hill, but they thought they were town and were sticking to that.

Huell isn't going to like this, but Gus reminds me of the things I like about Hank, but with a lot more of an organic feel to it, and is a Real Person rather than feeling like a hollow shell.

I think you like to complicate things, I'll remember from this post that you have Gus as villager

[Jesse Pinkman]

Gale back to townlean

Why?

[Brandon Mayhew]

Gale back to townlean

Why?

Start of day 2 townie mindset from eod1 reaction and follow up

[Hector Salamanca]

I’m pretty sure Saul is town

i don’t get why you think that?

ISOing him I could draw a straight line through his logical process and why he believes what he does. He didn’t like gale which made him like hector while also thinking Marie had a strong entrance and so on. Very townie mindset very hard to fake as wolf and almost comes off as too awkward to post as wolf

@Hector Salamanca

Nothing is hard to fake in such posts. I noticed in this game a lot of similar takes. Like the wolves' imagination and skills are limited at what you witnessed until now and they are too shy to fake a logical thinking process.
Town plays bad pretty often. A good wolf taking advantage of that makes good critical points against the bad townies and appears like solvy and helpful.

[Hector Salamanca]

And no not reading lol

You should read it though

[Mafia Host]

Breaking Bad Anonymous (The Thing) Day 2 Votecount

Votes	Target	Voters (Posts in Phase)
4	Hank Schrader	Huell Babineaux (107), Marie Schrader (106), Jesse Pinkman (183), Flynn White (88)
3	Walter White	Skyler White (159), Tuco Salamanca (93), Hector Salamanca (30)
1	Brandon Mayhew	Skinny Pete (53)
1	Saul Goodman	Ted Beneke (104)
1	Flynn White	Brandon Mayhew (23)
5	Not voting	Hank Schrader (34), Saul Goodman (0), Walter White (14), Gustavo Fring (50), Gale Boetticher (51)

View Vote History

End day at majority is enabled. With 15 players alive, it takes 8 votes to reach majority.

Day 2 ends at 8:00 PM EDT on Thursday, June 23rd, 2022. There are 1656028860000 remaining.

[Hector Salamanca]

Did Walter White ever say he'd be busy on the day 2?

[Brandon Mayhew]

i don’t get why you think that?

ISOing him I could draw a straight line through his logical process and why he believes what he does. He didn’t like gale which made him like hector while also thinking Marie had a strong entrance and so on. Very townie mindset very hard to fake as wolf and almost comes off as too awkward to post as wolf

@Hector Salamanca

Nothing is hard to fake in such posts. I noticed in this game a lot of similar takes. Like the wolves' imagination and skills are limited at what you witnessed until now and they are too shy to fake a logical thinking process.
Town plays bad pretty often. A good wolf taking advantage of that makes good critical points against the bad townies and appears like solvy and helpful.

Agree to disagree. Small things like that are hard for wolves to mimic genuinely. I’m not flipping on Saul today set him aside for d3 if he does something scummy between now and then

[Brandon Mayhew]

And no not reading lol

You should read it though

No I’m still recovering from yesterday and I wouldn’t survive

[Brandon Mayhew]

Tinfoiling that hard d2 is psychotic I’m sorry

[Skyler White]

I'm not saying this is what happened wrt Saul, but it's happened in other games before and I just don't understand how people forget about mafia games they're in, especially once they've posted in them. It's one thing if you sign up and then peace out/forget that you signed up weeks ago, but the number of times I've seen someone like 0 post on d2 or d3 and then come in the next day like "oh lol srry i forgot about this game" makes me go ??????

This has been your half asleep morning Skyler ramble of mostly irrelevance

[Brandon Mayhew]

Especially after we lynched Lydia who was essentially a 0 poster

[Huell Babineaux]

Did Walter White ever say he'd be busy on the day 2?

On D1? No.

He did say this at SOD today:

Hey Hank, you here to try and survive the day to make a jump?

This post? Why?

I can't be around much longer but i have things to say about the mike death and eod that imma hold onto

[Huell Babineaux]

if it isn't because he's playing his persona too much, then I'm lost, Huell

well partly, yeah, I enjoyed his persona mixing in seamlessly with some reads d1, sure

today if I had to think 'who is doing the most to widen the poe' it would be gus (he even just tried to get you to scumread me..? lol)

maybe it's town doing some uncomfortable sorting that needs to be done, but that's just how it comes off to me, especially when people seem to respond pretty well and gus consistently doesn't see it or gives the most uncharitable take on the situation.

shrugs

iirc Gus has given me a few reality checks when I was on my way to SR'ing people

could be important to know who if I pursue Gus as a wolf read any further

but I could do that myself with both of your ISOs

[Skyler White]

Tinfoiling that hard d2 is psychotic I’m sorry

I don't really think it's a tinfoil at all tbh. I'm strongly confident that Mike was a wolf. I'm less confident that Walter is the slot he jumped into, but got my hand forced by Tuco randomly saying like an hour into the phase that they caught a jumper, and it was a whole thing you missed out on. I wanted to wait ~2/3 of the phase before outing my thoughts to give Walter more time, but he hasn't posted at all since I dropped that so. Rip.

Don't...really think the absence is necessarily indicative, though I guess it's possible it's a ragequit or something, though that doesn't align with what I'd expect at all from someone jumping out of Mike's spot.

I've mostly accepted that it's just not something most people are going to understand/agree with, but such is life.

[Brandon Mayhew]

That’s fair if you felt so strongly he was wolf. I didn’t

[Hector Salamanca]

Did Walter White ever say he'd be busy on the day 2?

On D1? No.

He did say this at SOD today:

Hey Hank, you here to try and survive the day to make a jump?

This post? Why?

I can't be around much longer but i have things to say about the mike death and eod that imma hold onto

Pretty convenient

[Skyler White]

That’s fair if you felt so strongly he was wolf. I didn’t

I didn't either on day one!

It wasn't until he died at night that I really went back and dug into his iso, and it's a picturesque example of the archetype of wolf I've nailed on d2/d3 hundreds of times before. Clearly a very good player that understands how to make surface level villagery posts, but the progressions don't feel natural, it's mostly reactionary to things that happen, and there's not enough threads of thought/nuance to actually be a villager of the portrayed caliber.

There was also the stuff that imo leaked his mindset into the thread about being someone who would 100% jump N1 out of an at least not-wolf read slot, the LAMIST-y "man I wish I'd randed wolf in this game, jumping would be so much fun and how often do you get the chance to do that?" stuff, and then I've talked a few times about how I think the EoD was an attempt to make us accept that he was probably a N1 fearkill despite the play not warranting it - "I'm going to be so villagery on D2, hold me to that".

I don't think that's a thought that really crosses the mind of a villager when we were staring down the 5/4/4 type wagons and he'd oscillated on/off of Hank, and Hank was maybe not going over. Is that what you post instead of... thoughts related to the current wagons/gamestate? Nah.

I just really don't believe he was the straight NK on n1, the play didn't warrant it, and there was too much stuff posted to make him look like a villager vs. him just playing the game as one.

[Huell Babineaux]

##Vote Walter White

[Brandon Mayhew]

##Vote Walter White

Resistance to Flynn, not even engaging with my posts on it

Now this

Noted. Maybe I was wrong on your case on hank

[Skyler White]

##Vote Walter White

Is this "I concede there might be something to this" or "I give up, but if you're wrong you'd better help me murder hank with the fire of a thousand suns"

(For the record there's a decent chance I do the latter regardless of right vs. wrong, I don't think there's reeeally anything keeping it from being w/w beyond me personally just kinda thinking Hank's the type of villager that's...really hard to town read)

[Brandon Mayhew]

Skimming through Gus d2 I can’t decide either way. Feels kinda townie but nothing really sticks out to solidify it. Hard for me to read.

[Huell Babineaux]

##Vote Walter White

Is this "I concede there might be something to this" or "I give up, but if you're wrong you'd better help me murder hank with the fire of a thousand suns"

(For the record there's a decent chance I do the latter regardless of right vs. wrong, I don't think there's reeeally anything keeping it from being w/w beyond me personally just kinda thinking Hank's the type of villager that's...really hard to town read)

more the former than the latter.

Walter is not Walter which means he must be Mike, a wolf.

[Huell Babineaux]

##Vote Walter White

Is this "I concede there might be something to this" or "I give up, but if you're wrong you'd better help me murder hank with the fire of a thousand suns"

(For the record there's a decent chance I do the latter regardless of right vs. wrong, I don't think there's reeeally anything keeping it from being w/w beyond me personally just kinda thinking Hank's the type of villager that's...really hard to town read)

more the former than the latter.

Walter is not Walter which means he must be Mike, a wolf.

to be clear, this is without reading mike so much and without subscribing to your theory, which led me to questions I was and still unable to resolve (why mike would stop playing if he's doing it for fun).

I don't care about Mike.

I care about Walter and I'm convinced it's not him.

[Huell Babineaux]

But I'm on board and this one is all yours.

[Skyler White]

##Vote Walter White

Is this "I concede there might be something to this" or "I give up, but if you're wrong you'd better help me murder hank with the fire of a thousand suns"

(For the record there's a decent chance I do the latter regardless of right vs. wrong, I don't think there's reeeally anything keeping it from being w/w beyond me personally just kinda thinking Hank's the type of villager that's...really hard to town read)

more the former than the latter.

Walter is not Walter which means he must be Mike, a wolf.

to be clear, this is without reading mike so much and without subscribing to your theory, which led me to questions I was and still unable to resolve (why mike would stop playing if he's doing it for fun).

I don't care about Mike.

I care about Walter and I'm convinced it's not him.

I feel like I'm in a twilight zone, since you were the one acting so sure that Walter /was/ still Walter, and not sure what to make of it

[Huell Babineaux]

Is this "I concede there might be something to this" or "I give up, but if you're wrong you'd better help me murder hank with the fire of a thousand suns"

(For the record there's a decent chance I do the latter regardless of right vs. wrong, I don't think there's reeeally anything keeping it from being w/w beyond me personally just kinda thinking Hank's the type of villager that's...really hard to town read)

more the former than the latter.

Walter is not Walter which means he must be Mike, a wolf.

to be clear, this is without reading mike so much and without subscribing to your theory, which led me to questions I was and still unable to resolve (why mike would stop playing if he's doing it for fun).

I don't care about Mike.

I care about Walter and I'm convinced it's not him.

I feel like I'm in a twilight zone, since you were the one acting so sure that Walter /was/ still Walter, and not sure what to make of it

If you feel some whiplash imagine what the wolf team must be feeling right now

[Huell Babineaux]

number one advocate 4th wolf Huell doing them a solid all day $%#!ting on your theory and then naked vote swaps allegiances

[Brandon Mayhew]

UPDATED 3.0

Towns
Skyler White
Walter White (no thanks on tinfoil)
Saul Goodman
Gale Boetticher
Hank Schrader

Wanna believe my hank case town read is correct
Huell Babineaux

Town leans (due for evaluation, prolly wrong somewhere here)
Hector Salamanca
Marie Schrader
Tuco Salamanca
Skinny Pete

Null but pass with volume today
Jesse Pinkman

I dunno
Gustavo Fring
Ted Beneke

Wolf
Flynn White

[Huell Babineaux]

I feel like I'm in a twilight zone, since you were the one acting so sure that Walter /was/ still Walter, and not sure what to make of it

let's just say I was evaluating one aspect of his posting that I thought would be harder to fake and saw the possibility it was him when I squinted.

and then I reevaluated based on a different dimension and went through every single one of his posts d1 vs d2 from his iso and think I found a pretty stupid but reliable reason it's not him.

[Skyler White]

Man, Brandon I don't really understand how we see the game so incredibly differently. My reads are almost inverted from yours.

Ted and Gus two of strongest town reads, Jesse a pretty strong town read, Walter a wolf, Saul/Gale two of my stronger wolf reads ignoring the jump.

[Huell Babineaux]

am curious to see if he returns now before EOD

will circle the wagons later

have a blessed day

[Gustavo Fring]

Since this clearly is a boring game of either we believe walter got jumped or we default to killing hank there is clearly no posting or reading or solving needed.

With that in mind I will check back closer to eod if my vote is needed and other than that leave you be.

Depending on the result I might just empty vote hector tomorrow and leave, just inc ase a wolf wants to jump into me and have an easy day.

glgl

Sorry, for people that are having a good time here and now. Time is a valuable resource for me and if all we do is $%#! around today then I would rather skip the day early And decide early tomorrow if it is worth playing or we just masturbate more until we luck into a wolfslot.

[Marie Schrader]

Man, Brandon I don't really understand how we see the game so incredibly differently. My reads are almost inverted from yours.

Ted and Gus two of strongest town reads, Jesse a pretty strong town read, Walter a wolf, Saul/Gale two of my stronger wolf reads ignoring the jump.

Admitting to being your own top wolfread?

[Skyler White]

Man, Brandon I don't really understand how we see the game so incredibly differently. My reads are almost inverted from yours.

Ted and Gus two of strongest town reads, Jesse a pretty strong town read, Walter a wolf, Saul/Gale two of my stronger wolf reads ignoring the jump.

Admitting to being your own top wolfread?

"almost"

But, yes

[Marie Schrader]

##Vote Walter White

[Ted Beneke]

Lydia Rodarte-Quayle (14)
Walter White (14)

someone better 14 post D3 or we won’t know who to kill

[Ted Beneke]

At what point do I stop townreading tuco

Vote on Lydia and encouraging someone’s paranoid delusions?

i give you permission to stop town reading him the moment he’s been thinged

[Skinny Pete]

Where is Walter?

[Gale Boetticher]

I legitimately can't see d1 Walter ending up like this it's weird