Newcomb AMA Part Deux

[Newcomb]

3. Something that always amazes me about your playstyle is the fact that you can take most posts people would consider throwaway (like this one - it would not be immediately obvious to me that GH would be town for checking if an image passes a Reverse Google Image Search) and, by placing themselves in their shoes and thinking about it from their perspective, get town/wolfreads from them. Do you have any sort of advice on how to get better at this?

My advice would be "don't force it." Reads that have that degree of clarity aren't something that happen every game, and if you sit down to play and go, "I really need to have a strong read now, so I'm gonna specifically read the thread for something I can call strong town or wolf," you're kind of setting yourself up to fail. Almost like reading an ISO as a wolf and going "how can I bury this person." Not quite that degree of intention, but like, same ballpark.

I think my mindset/behavioral analysis skills are quite strong, but very often I find myself scrolling through the game thread and ignoring most of these types of throwaway posts until I get to the handful of posts from a specific player that I believe opens a window into their thought process. Is my process any different from yours?

Not really? I generally read the thread from a pretty neutral PoV, just reading the words just getting a basic "this is what's happening in the game" sense of them. What I'm looking for but not focused on is that at some point I'll have an intuitive / subconscious reaction to something that'll basically be as simple as "good!" or "bad!". Then I stop, re-read those few sentences, back up, maybe re-read the whole post, and just... start to pay attention to it. See if I can come up with an articulatable reason for that feeling, and then see how much I believe that reason.

I definitely agree that you don't have to and shouldn't pay every post the same degree of attention. Mafia is very much a game about separating the signal from the noise.

[Newcomb]

4. I remember from your last AMA you said you were an avid board game fan. Do you have any current ones you're obsessed with?

There's a game called Viticulture that I'm really into at the moment; it's one of the few games I've encountered that really resists an "optimal" way to play without succumbing to random chance or luck.

It kind of sounds like an extremely boring concept - grow a winery and fulfill wine orders - but it's actually super fun. The turn order dynamic and the seasonal dynamic *really* reward long term thinking and planning your moves out.

My one criticism is that it doesn't score particularly highly on the player interactivity metric, but hey not every game can be Twilight Imperium.

[katze]

https://tiermaker.com/create/the-def...ier-list-30678

(there is a correct answer)

Is the correct answer "I don't know what 90% of those taste like, and even if I did I'm pretty sure the only thing above F tier would be Canada Dry but if and only if you're running a fever and staying home from school OR on a commercial airline flight"?

Because that's about what I've got.

uhhh

the correct answer is "water >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>" so... close enough? sounds like you're on the right track?

[Newcomb]

5. How do you ensure that when you build a PoE/consensus town core in the mid to late game that it isn't a poisoned PoE? What's your process in evaluating the strength of your town reads to ensure that a wolf doesn't sneak up on there?

This is a tough one, because I think this is one of those things that's very contextual and the specifics of the game you're playing will always win out over generic advice.

But in general, a healthy PoE is something that has to be maintained and cultivated rather than just set and locked in. As the game progresses, you need to be looking at the foundations of reads, the basic elevator pitch 10 second version of why this person is clear, and making sure it still makes sense given the new flips / current gamestate.

Some people are villagers because they've been playing villagery all game and just haven't done anything to flag you. So to get at the foundation of that read, you need to throw all that stuff out and just look purely at their votes, what they have actually done, on a very basic level.

Some people are villagers because they just at this one moment, say an EoD that just doesn't never comes from a wolf given what they said, how they voted, and the flip. To get at the foundation of that, you need to ask yourself, what would have to be true for them to be a wolf there? What would the plan have had to have been, or what ridiculous move would they have made? How implausible is it? With the current gamestate and new flips factored in.

[Newcomb]

https://tiermaker.com/create/the-def...ier-list-30678

(there is a correct answer)

Is the correct answer "I don't know what 90% of those taste like, and even if I did I'm pretty sure the only thing above F tier would be Canada Dry but if and only if you're running a fever and staying home from school OR on a commercial airline flight"?

Because that's about what I've got.

uhhh

the correct answer is "water >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>" so... close enough? sounds like you're on the right track?

I bought a SodaStream a couple years ago just to have sparkling water around all the time and it's one of the best purchases I've ever made. Use it literally every day.

[Newcomb]

6. I'm not sure what your mental model of my play is given that we haven't played together in a long time, but do you have any suggestions on how I can improve? I guess that this entire question bank is essentially asking that question but in a more detailed/nuanced way, but if you have any more tips I'm all ears =p

I mean it's been a while yeah. But just going off what I remember, I think you're generally above average at getting a good handle on the gamestate and good at generating your own reads, but then struggle with leveraging them into specific outcomes. Like, having a pretty coherent and good opinion on the three top wagons and doing good work interacting with people about them, like being a good driving force for content, but then at the end of the day, not quite picking your best shot and shoving your chips in.

I guess in terms of advice, I'd say you should consciously try to put some focus on results over process, which is kind of a weird thing to say given what I usually say about those two things. Not winning and losing really but just like, specific situations and outcomes. The day is ending, these people are being voted, I want X here. Just like, leveraging your reads. Doing something with them. Arm-wrestling people into voting with you when you really believe something. It's a good skill to have.

[katze]

https://tiermaker.com/create/the-def...ier-list-30678

(there is a correct answer)

Is the correct answer "I don't know what 90% of those taste like, and even if I did I'm pretty sure the only thing above F tier would be Canada Dry but if and only if you're running a fever and staying home from school OR on a commercial airline flight"?

Because that's about what I've got.

uhhh

the correct answer is "water >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>" so... close enough? sounds like you're on the right track?

I bought a SodaStream a couple years ago just to have sparkling water around all the time and it's one of the best purchases I've ever made. Use it literally every day.

sparkling water is criminally underrated although i have PTSD from the time i accidentally laughed so hard while drinking it came out my nose and my entire face was suffering for like an entire hour

[Arete]

do you have any forum mafia advice for me (as either alignment)

Could you be a little more specific? I'm sure I could ramble on about generic forum mafia tips but that sounds uhh... not super productive.

was holding off on this so that people didn't try to read it as relevant to my champs game, but since it ended:

1. When I and another player I think is town disagree on a third player's alignment, do you have any specific advice on how to weigh my read against theirs?

2. I feel like people misunderstand me a lot and I don't know how to fix this, are there obvious things to try to communicate more clearly

I tried the thing where you add a zillion clarifications but it just resulted in people continuing to misunderstand me while also thinking that having so many clarifications is wolfy

3. how do I decide whether to trust other people's allegedly-confident metareads, assuming I don't know the people in question super well


---

4. how do I stop making super wolfy-sounding posts as a wolf

5. assuming that I'm not trying to go full Thingyman how do I figure out whether or not to bus my teammates? I feel like a lot of the time I either try to defend them and then they give up and stop trying and get voted out and I look partnered with them and we lose, or I go ahead and bus them and then it's just me and I'm not good enough to solo a game and we lose

assume for the purposes of this question that despite (4) I'm still in a better position

6. how do I stop sucking at PR hunting

[Newcomb]

what are some playstyle traits you wish you could like, steal from a different player? (eg: you mentioned VCA, so like "i wish i was as good at VCA as Titus i dont know if this is actually a good example)

I would steal the humor of yogsloth, zack, visor, and monte. Yogsloth is kind of his own wild thing, but those other guys monte especially have all made me legit laugh in mafia games. Monte especially is a super funny guy even if he sometimes straddles the line of like, mean humor. Still funny.

I would uhhhh... Titus wouldn't be my first pick for stealing someone's VCA skills that's all I'll say lol

If I were going to steal someone's VCA skills I'd pick some of the FantasyStrike guys, probably. Mal, Sotek, Caphriel.

[Newcomb]

1. When I and another player I think is town disagree on a third player's alignment, do you have any specific advice on how to weigh my read against theirs?

Talk with them about the root of the read. Is it holistic, or specific? Like, figure out the bare essence of the thing they're basing the read off of. Oftentimes it's just going to come down to a subjective difference of interpretation.

There's nothing wrong with letting yourself get convinced by someone else's reasoning, but generally the strength of a townread I have on someone doesn't really correlate to giving their reads extra weight.

[Newcomb]

2. I feel like people misunderstand me a lot and I don't know how to fix this, are there obvious things to try to communicate more clearly

I tried the thing where you add a zillion clarifications but it just resulted in people continuing to misunderstand me while also thinking that having so many clarifications is wolfy

I'm not really sure what you mean by 'the thing where you add a lot of clarifications' but just going off what it sounds like, I'd say maybe hold things in a bit, let them marinate, refine them until you feel like you have a version that's really readable and clear.

Reads are only as good as the format they're presented in; more specifically they need to be tailored to the game you're playing, to the people you're playing with. You should get a sense, as you start the game, how people in it communicate and what their styles are.

One trick I use is to pick the person I feel like I'm vibing with most in the game, or my best townread, hopefully that's the same person, and start writing a post *to them* that evolves into a longer reads post. But always keeping in mind as I'm writing it that I'm writing it *to* a specific person. This helps me be less generic and more clear.

Basically, I'd say sit on ideas until you can internally refine them enough to produce the best version of them - that doesn't mean the longest or most detailed, it means most readable, most entertaining, most clear. And then present them with a personal touch, not a generic one.

[Newcomb]

3. how do I decide whether to trust other people's allegedly-confident metareads, assuming I don't know the people in question super well

I straight up don't trust 99% of meta reads. If you don't know either of the people in question super well, I would literally give reads like that 0 weight.

Meta reads have to be earned, experienced, felt, all over a long period of time. A good meta read is something that has to do with the essence of a player, their mafia soul, their reasons for playing, how they are as a person, how they think. Meta that consists of an action or two or trend that can be easily encapsulated into a few sentences is basically right the way a stopped clock is sometimes right.

[Newcomb]

4. how do I stop making super wolfy-sounding posts as a wolf

5. assuming that I'm not trying to go full Thingyman how do I figure out whether or not to bus my teammates? I feel like a lot of the time I either try to defend them and then they give up and stop trying and get voted out and I look partnered with them and we lose, or I go ahead and bus them and then it's just me and I'm not good enough to solo a game and we lose

assume for the purposes of this question that despite (4) I'm still in a better position

6. how do I stop sucking at PR hunting

You're definitely asking the wrong person for these but I'll take a swing at em.

4 - Kind of depends on the specifics of what you mean. I personally feel like I make my best sounding posts as a wolf when I'm going after a specific objective and therefore not concerned with how I look or how the posts I'm making will look in hindsight.

5 - For me, I need to be pretty confident I can leverage the credit I'll get or discredit I can shove onto villagers into at least 2 mis-eliminations for a bus to really feel "worth it'. I.e. - don't bus just because. You should always have a reason. How the person being bussed feels about it and what they're planning to do and how they're planning to play it absolutely matter, so you should communicate with your team early and often.

In the case of kind of a meh team though, where you can't really count on that kind of thing, I'd just be ruthless about it and roll the dice. The worst bus is a halfhearted one.

6 - I'm not a very good PR hunter, but one specific tip I can give you is that a lot more often it's easier to pick up on what roles people aren't tben what they actually are. Especially as VT people are a lot more likely to accidentally slip a perspective into the game that shows they're not a PR, because they're just not really thinking about it.

[Newcomb]

I'm gonna pass this off to the next person sometime in the next 24 hours, so if there's any other burning questions get 'em in now.

[Newcomb]

Thanks for the fun all.

Next up:

@Lissa