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Thread: Newcomb AMA Part Deux

  1. ISO #101
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prophylaxis (#95)
    3. Something that always amazes me about your playstyle is the fact that you can take most posts people would consider throwaway (like this one - it would not be immediately obvious to me that GH would be town for checking if an image passes a Reverse Google Image Search) and, by placing themselves in their shoes and thinking about it from their perspective, get town/wolfreads from them. Do you have any sort of advice on how to get better at this?
    My advice would be "don't force it." Reads that have that degree of clarity aren't something that happen every game, and if you sit down to play and go, "I really need to have a strong read now, so I'm gonna specifically read the thread for something I can call strong town or wolf," you're kind of setting yourself up to fail. Almost like reading an ISO as a wolf and going "how can I bury this person." Not quite that degree of intention, but like, same ballpark.

    I think my mindset/behavioral analysis skills are quite strong, but very often I find myself scrolling through the game thread and ignoring most of these types of throwaway posts until I get to the handful of posts from a specific player that I believe opens a window into their thought process. Is my process any different from yours?
    Not really? I generally read the thread from a pretty neutral PoV, just reading the words just getting a basic "this is what's happening in the game" sense of them. What I'm looking for but not focused on is that at some point I'll have an intuitive / subconscious reaction to something that'll basically be as simple as "good!" or "bad!". Then I stop, re-read those few sentences, back up, maybe re-read the whole post, and just... start to pay attention to it. See if I can come up with an articulatable reason for that feeling, and then see how much I believe that reason.

    I definitely agree that you don't have to and shouldn't pay every post the same degree of attention. Mafia is very much a game about separating the signal from the noise.

  2. ISO #102
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prophylaxis (#95)
    4. I remember from your last AMA you said you were an avid board game fan. Do you have any current ones you're obsessed with?
    There's a game called Viticulture that I'm really into at the moment; it's one of the few games I've encountered that really resists an "optimal" way to play without succumbing to random chance or luck.

    It kind of sounds like an extremely boring concept - grow a winery and fulfill wine orders - but it's actually super fun. The turn order dynamic and the seasonal dynamic *really* reward long term thinking and planning your moves out.

    My one criticism is that it doesn't score particularly highly on the player interactivity metric, but hey not every game can be Twilight Imperium.

  3. ISO #103
    Season 8 Champze katze's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newcomb (#98)
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#97)
    Is the correct answer "I don't know what 90% of those taste like, and even if I did I'm pretty sure the only thing above F tier would be Canada Dry but if and only if you're running a fever and staying home from school OR on a commercial airline flight"?

    Because that's about what I've got.
    uhhh

    the correct answer is "water >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>" so... close enough? sounds like you're on the right track?

    β €
    Quote Originally Posted by Arapocalypse (#2181)
    ...meow?
    Quote Originally Posted by Lissa (#10803)
    REVEAL (PART SEVEN)

    In first place and winning the Mafia Championship with 99 points is...







    @katze (Throne of Lies)!
    Quote Originally Posted by Marshal (#174)
    tl;dr: kat called my $%#! small, I townread it
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#8516)
    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#8515)
    The reality is that when you've soft defended half the wolf team, and tried to kill who I perceive as villagers, it's impossible for me to ever take that slot out of the PoE, or even trust them. I feel like they tried to open the PoE by bringing C4 back into the spotlight.
    hey put respect on my name

    i also hard defended the other half of the wolfteam
    Quote Originally Posted by Hally (#39)
    what if kat is vt

    would she throw like this
    Quote Originally Posted by neopest (#1)
    Today we celebrate the life, career, piety, and knowledge of Katze. The one who exposed the world to this truth and gave meaning to life.

    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#3330)
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3328)
    you're gonna kill mac I'm just sitting on katze for fun
    😳
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3353)
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#3348)
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3335)
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3331)
    nah katze no flushed emoji
    you're being too rude at this eod for me to banter with you anymore
    sorry

    i just think ur a wolf

    you can go back to sitting on me
    i'll $%#!in sit on ur mouth $%#!
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3354)
    not like that not like that not like that

    Quote Originally Posted by Transcend (#217)
    Quote Originally Posted by Transcend (#160)
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#42)
    ##Vote Sleep

    im tired and feel like staying in bed

    also we don’t have enough info to execute someone d1 or something
    This immediately pings me a bit. Partially because i know it's not smart but also seems like he doesn't wanna step on toes so early.
    Yo katze

    I feel like this might have been a joke post

    But also i feel like there's some truth behind every joke and I just got pinged by this

    So can you tell me the rationale behind this post?
    Quote Originally Posted by Marluxion (#714)
    Katze is uwu
    Quote Originally Posted by illario (#2944)
    Pretty sure Katze is just an innocent memer gamer girl who likes to joke around and play seriously as well and genuinely gets upset when her jokes are taken seriously and her seriousness is taken as jokes

    And if she’s maf then she’s just a borderline sociopath memer girl whose jokes are just lies and her seriousness are just lies and everything about her is a lie and if she flips maf this game and I see her say anything remotely scummy in a future game I’m just gonna death tunnel her to the ends of the earth regardless of how genuine her posts may feel
    Quote Originally Posted by AYAYA (#6543)
    signing my posts makes me feel subhuman

    - chloe
    Quote Originally Posted by Thunal33 (#238)
    you're not a reliable source of redcheck yet
    Quote Originally Posted by nutella
    i looked away for five minutes and katze faked a red?
    Quote Originally Posted by Makaze (#5)
    Why are you doing this?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#11644)
    katze how the hell do you have 225 posts in a dead end phase

    Quote Originally Posted by vanity. (#8832)
    ok katze is trolling me lmao

    i feel your pain chloe.
    Quote Originally Posted by vanity. (#8852)
    ##Vote vanity.

    ok i cant deal with it katze is torturing me
    Quote Originally Posted by neopest (#6889)
    Quote Originally Posted by meowmix (#6885)
    We're dead sure on Lucy being mafia then?
    like 95% the 5% is katze being really awful at setup design
    Quote Originally Posted by neopest (#6928)
    oh jesus christ katze, i hate u
    Quote Originally Posted by SilverKeith (#6932)
    LMAOOOOO

    Ok this is kinda bastard fr

  4. ISO #104
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prophylaxis (#95)
    5. How do you ensure that when you build a PoE/consensus town core in the mid to late game that it isn't a poisoned PoE? What's your process in evaluating the strength of your town reads to ensure that a wolf doesn't sneak up on there?
    This is a tough one, because I think this is one of those things that's very contextual and the specifics of the game you're playing will always win out over generic advice.

    But in general, a healthy PoE is something that has to be maintained and cultivated rather than just set and locked in. As the game progresses, you need to be looking at the foundations of reads, the basic elevator pitch 10 second version of why this person is clear, and making sure it still makes sense given the new flips / current gamestate.

    Some people are villagers because they've been playing villagery all game and just haven't done anything to flag you. So to get at the foundation of that read, you need to throw all that stuff out and just look purely at their votes, what they have actually done, on a very basic level.

    Some people are villagers because they just at this one moment, say an EoD that just doesn't never comes from a wolf given what they said, how they voted, and the flip. To get at the foundation of that, you need to ask yourself, what would have to be true for them to be a wolf there? What would the plan have had to have been, or what ridiculous move would they have made? How implausible is it? With the current gamestate and new flips factored in.

  5. ISO #105
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#103)
    Quote Originally Posted by Newcomb (#98)
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#97)
    Is the correct answer "I don't know what 90% of those taste like, and even if I did I'm pretty sure the only thing above F tier would be Canada Dry but if and only if you're running a fever and staying home from school OR on a commercial airline flight"?

    Because that's about what I've got.
    uhhh

    the correct answer is "water >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>" so... close enough? sounds like you're on the right track?
    I bought a SodaStream a couple years ago just to have sparkling water around all the time and it's one of the best purchases I've ever made. Use it literally every day.

  6. ISO #106
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prophylaxis (#95)
    6. I'm not sure what your mental model of my play is given that we haven't played together in a long time, but do you have any suggestions on how I can improve? I guess that this entire question bank is essentially asking that question but in a more detailed/nuanced way, but if you have any more tips I'm all ears =p
    I mean it's been a while yeah. But just going off what I remember, I think you're generally above average at getting a good handle on the gamestate and good at generating your own reads, but then struggle with leveraging them into specific outcomes. Like, having a pretty coherent and good opinion on the three top wagons and doing good work interacting with people about them, like being a good driving force for content, but then at the end of the day, not quite picking your best shot and shoving your chips in.

    I guess in terms of advice, I'd say you should consciously try to put some focus on results over process, which is kind of a weird thing to say given what I usually say about those two things. Not winning and losing really but just like, specific situations and outcomes. The day is ending, these people are being voted, I want X here. Just like, leveraging your reads. Doing something with them. Arm-wrestling people into voting with you when you really believe something. It's a good skill to have.

  7. ISO #107
    Season 8 Champze katze's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newcomb (#105)
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#103)
    Quote Originally Posted by Newcomb (#98)
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#97)
    Is the correct answer "I don't know what 90% of those taste like, and even if I did I'm pretty sure the only thing above F tier would be Canada Dry but if and only if you're running a fever and staying home from school OR on a commercial airline flight"?

    Because that's about what I've got.
    uhhh

    the correct answer is "water >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>" so... close enough? sounds like you're on the right track?
    I bought a SodaStream a couple years ago just to have sparkling water around all the time and it's one of the best purchases I've ever made. Use it literally every day.
    sparkling water is criminally underrated although i have PTSD from the time i accidentally laughed so hard while drinking it came out my nose and my entire face was suffering for like an entire hour

    β €
    Quote Originally Posted by Arapocalypse (#2181)
    ...meow?
    Quote Originally Posted by Lissa (#10803)
    REVEAL (PART SEVEN)

    In first place and winning the Mafia Championship with 99 points is...







    @katze (Throne of Lies)!
    Quote Originally Posted by Marshal (#174)
    tl;dr: kat called my $%#! small, I townread it
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#8516)
    Quote Originally Posted by Justplayingitcool (#8515)
    The reality is that when you've soft defended half the wolf team, and tried to kill who I perceive as villagers, it's impossible for me to ever take that slot out of the PoE, or even trust them. I feel like they tried to open the PoE by bringing C4 back into the spotlight.
    hey put respect on my name

    i also hard defended the other half of the wolfteam
    Quote Originally Posted by Hally (#39)
    what if kat is vt

    would she throw like this
    Quote Originally Posted by neopest (#1)
    Today we celebrate the life, career, piety, and knowledge of Katze. The one who exposed the world to this truth and gave meaning to life.

    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#3330)
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3328)
    you're gonna kill mac I'm just sitting on katze for fun
    😳
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3353)
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#3348)
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3335)
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3331)
    nah katze no flushed emoji
    you're being too rude at this eod for me to banter with you anymore
    sorry

    i just think ur a wolf

    you can go back to sitting on me
    i'll $%#!in sit on ur mouth $%#!
    Quote Originally Posted by Illwei (#3354)
    not like that not like that not like that

    Quote Originally Posted by Transcend (#217)
    Quote Originally Posted by Transcend (#160)
    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#42)
    ##Vote Sleep

    im tired and feel like staying in bed

    also we don’t have enough info to execute someone d1 or something
    This immediately pings me a bit. Partially because i know it's not smart but also seems like he doesn't wanna step on toes so early.
    Yo katze

    I feel like this might have been a joke post

    But also i feel like there's some truth behind every joke and I just got pinged by this

    So can you tell me the rationale behind this post?
    Quote Originally Posted by Marluxion (#714)
    Katze is uwu
    Quote Originally Posted by illario (#2944)
    Pretty sure Katze is just an innocent memer gamer girl who likes to joke around and play seriously as well and genuinely gets upset when her jokes are taken seriously and her seriousness is taken as jokes

    And if she’s maf then she’s just a borderline sociopath memer girl whose jokes are just lies and her seriousness are just lies and everything about her is a lie and if she flips maf this game and I see her say anything remotely scummy in a future game I’m just gonna death tunnel her to the ends of the earth regardless of how genuine her posts may feel
    Quote Originally Posted by AYAYA (#6543)
    signing my posts makes me feel subhuman

    - chloe
    Quote Originally Posted by Thunal33 (#238)
    you're not a reliable source of redcheck yet
    Quote Originally Posted by nutella
    i looked away for five minutes and katze faked a red?
    Quote Originally Posted by Makaze (#5)
    Why are you doing this?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ampharos (#11644)
    katze how the hell do you have 225 posts in a dead end phase

    Quote Originally Posted by vanity. (#8832)
    ok katze is trolling me lmao

    i feel your pain chloe.
    Quote Originally Posted by vanity. (#8852)
    ##Vote vanity.

    ok i cant deal with it katze is torturing me
    Quote Originally Posted by neopest (#6889)
    Quote Originally Posted by meowmix (#6885)
    We're dead sure on Lucy being mafia then?
    like 95% the 5% is katze being really awful at setup design
    Quote Originally Posted by neopest (#6928)
    oh jesus christ katze, i hate u
    Quote Originally Posted by SilverKeith (#6932)
    LMAOOOOO

    Ok this is kinda bastard fr

  8. ISO #108
    Wants It More Arete's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newcomb (#21)
    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#8)
    do you have any forum mafia advice for me (as either alignment)
    Could you be a little more specific? I'm sure I could ramble on about generic forum mafia tips but that sounds uhh... not super productive.
    was holding off on this so that people didn't try to read it as relevant to my champs game, but since it ended:

    1. When I and another player I think is town disagree on a third player's alignment, do you have any specific advice on how to weigh my read against theirs?

    2. I feel like people misunderstand me a lot and I don't know how to fix this, are there obvious things to try to communicate more clearly

    I tried the thing where you add a zillion clarifications but it just resulted in people continuing to misunderstand me while also thinking that having so many clarifications is wolfy

    3. how do I decide whether to trust other people's allegedly-confident metareads, assuming I don't know the people in question super well


    ---

    4. how do I stop making super wolfy-sounding posts as a wolf

    5. assuming that I'm not trying to go full Thingyman how do I figure out whether or not to bus my teammates? I feel like a lot of the time I either try to defend them and then they give up and stop trying and get voted out and I look partnered with them and we lose, or I go ahead and bus them and then it's just me and I'm not good enough to solo a game and we lose

    assume for the purposes of this question that despite (4) I'm still in a better position

    6. how do I stop sucking at PR hunting

  9. ISO #109
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by katze (#96)
    what are some playstyle traits you wish you could like, steal from a different player? (eg: you mentioned VCA, so like "i wish i was as good at VCA as Titus i dont know if this is actually a good example)
    I would steal the humor of yogsloth, zack, visor, and monte. Yogsloth is kind of his own wild thing, but those other guys monte especially have all made me legit laugh in mafia games. Monte especially is a super funny guy even if he sometimes straddles the line of like, mean humor. Still funny.

    I would uhhhh... Titus wouldn't be my first pick for stealing someone's VCA skills that's all I'll say lol

    If I were going to steal someone's VCA skills I'd pick some of the FantasyStrike guys, probably. Mal, Sotek, Caphriel.

  10. ISO #110
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#108)
    1. When I and another player I think is town disagree on a third player's alignment, do you have any specific advice on how to weigh my read against theirs?
    Talk with them about the root of the read. Is it holistic, or specific? Like, figure out the bare essence of the thing they're basing the read off of. Oftentimes it's just going to come down to a subjective difference of interpretation.

    There's nothing wrong with letting yourself get convinced by someone else's reasoning, but generally the strength of a townread I have on someone doesn't really correlate to giving their reads extra weight.

  11. ISO #111
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#108)
    2. I feel like people misunderstand me a lot and I don't know how to fix this, are there obvious things to try to communicate more clearly

    I tried the thing where you add a zillion clarifications but it just resulted in people continuing to misunderstand me while also thinking that having so many clarifications is wolfy
    I'm not really sure what you mean by 'the thing where you add a lot of clarifications' but just going off what it sounds like, I'd say maybe hold things in a bit, let them marinate, refine them until you feel like you have a version that's really readable and clear.

    Reads are only as good as the format they're presented in; more specifically they need to be tailored to the game you're playing, to the people you're playing with. You should get a sense, as you start the game, how people in it communicate and what their styles are.

    One trick I use is to pick the person I feel like I'm vibing with most in the game, or my best townread, hopefully that's the same person, and start writing a post *to them* that evolves into a longer reads post. But always keeping in mind as I'm writing it that I'm writing it *to* a specific person. This helps me be less generic and more clear.

    Basically, I'd say sit on ideas until you can internally refine them enough to produce the best version of them - that doesn't mean the longest or most detailed, it means most readable, most entertaining, most clear. And then present them with a personal touch, not a generic one.

  12. ISO #112
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#108)
    3. how do I decide whether to trust other people's allegedly-confident metareads, assuming I don't know the people in question super well
    I straight up don't trust 99% of meta reads. If you don't know either of the people in question super well, I would literally give reads like that 0 weight.

    Meta reads have to be earned, experienced, felt, all over a long period of time. A good meta read is something that has to do with the essence of a player, their mafia soul, their reasons for playing, how they are as a person, how they think. Meta that consists of an action or two or trend that can be easily encapsulated into a few sentences is basically right the way a stopped clock is sometimes right.

  13. ISO #113
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arete (#108)
    4. how do I stop making super wolfy-sounding posts as a wolf

    5. assuming that I'm not trying to go full Thingyman how do I figure out whether or not to bus my teammates? I feel like a lot of the time I either try to defend them and then they give up and stop trying and get voted out and I look partnered with them and we lose, or I go ahead and bus them and then it's just me and I'm not good enough to solo a game and we lose

    assume for the purposes of this question that despite (4) I'm still in a better position

    6. how do I stop sucking at PR hunting
    You're definitely asking the wrong person for these but I'll take a swing at em.

    4 - Kind of depends on the specifics of what you mean. I personally feel like I make my best sounding posts as a wolf when I'm going after a specific objective and therefore not concerned with how I look or how the posts I'm making will look in hindsight.

    5 - For me, I need to be pretty confident I can leverage the credit I'll get or discredit I can shove onto villagers into at least 2 mis-eliminations for a bus to really feel "worth it'. I.e. - don't bus just because. You should always have a reason. How the person being bussed feels about it and what they're planning to do and how they're planning to play it absolutely matter, so you should communicate with your team early and often.

    In the case of kind of a meh team though, where you can't really count on that kind of thing, I'd just be ruthless about it and roll the dice. The worst bus is a halfhearted one.

    6 - I'm not a very good PR hunter, but one specific tip I can give you is that a lot more often it's easier to pick up on what roles people aren't tben what they actually are. Especially as VT people are a lot more likely to accidentally slip a perspective into the game that shows they're not a PR, because they're just not really thinking about it.

  14. ISO #114
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    I'm gonna pass this off to the next person sometime in the next 24 hours, so if there's any other burning questions get 'em in now.

  15. ISO #115
    Loansharking blot test Newcomb's Avatar Head Moderator
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    Thanks for the fun all.

    Next up:

    @Lissa

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