Season 9, Semifinal 1: Trouble on Sornieth [Mafia Championship]

[ThePretender]

The other tool I learned was analyzing the people in POE and using interaction analysis to determine who is least likely to be mafia. I made that wall on Axis on day 2 and also kept bringing it up on day 3 how I felt that in addition to his solving and "no self-pres," that because of his large dissacoiatives with the others in POE, I didn't feel too good about Axis being mafia. I know I voted on him but I went with my town at the end of the day :/ and I was on Caps before that.

I am thinking in now doing something similar tbh, but like at the same time I am questioning like ¿Could be there now some kind of bussing or trying to hard distance? Cuz rn we need to Lynch a Wolf, so maybe using that to catch the more likely is a good tool. But if we fall for a wrong unpaired read and arrive at a wrong conclussion is like, very bad for us lol. So thats why Im sticking with my gut on my jmw sus and stuff, but still trying to analyze possible unpaired reads on them. (Wavering on the Caps unpairing, cold feet on the Eph one. Most sure unpairing would say is with Pret, which doesnt help a lot lol)

right, that is why I am sort of taking everything with a grain of salt, but in day 1 and day 2, there is a lot to figure out with interactions, way people address each other, and the votes on one another. Still, there is enough to be found through ISO dive ins and I saw u wanted to talk some aro-logic. So I am here to discuss with u if u have any questions!

Also @Arete, I saw ur question about thoughts and I agree with u that Caps/Eph could very well be both mafia as well. I am just in the thought rn that Eph might be more mafia than Caps if that makes sense.

Also @Santygrass, @supershorty, @ThePretender, I would like ur thoughts on among Caps/Eph/Jmwjmw where you guys feel has the best chance of hitting mafia? Additionally, lmk what ur thoughts are on the input that I have provided!

I honestly think jmw is the least likely to flip mafia out of the 3

Then from there I honestly think there's equal odds for caps or mera to flip w and maybe both if i'm being hopeful

Re:input on unpairing, my head is spinning from how much there was regarding who we unpaired, and I feel like we unpaired a lot of peeps to the point that a team of 3 isn't physically possible lol

[Wisp]

I feel like JMW has been asked about that caps read hundreds of times now

[jmwjmw27]

I feel like JMW has been asked about that caps read hundreds of times now

not false

[Wisp]

What would Anne (Neopest) do in this situation?? Please give me all your strength. Even to all our fallen comrades. Please.

Everyone who is not Caps and Eph. Is there a world where both Caps and Eph are town? Because I can't see where they are both town tbh and I'd like your guys thoughts on it please.

She'd laugh in wolf chat cause town is self destructing.

Also re 2nd point. Lets entertain a world of v!caps and v!ephe. For semantics I'll say you're a villager in this scenario
which leaves

jmw, santy, wisp, shorty, arete

huh

if you can figure out a possible combination of 3 in the above then go for it... I don't think shorty/arete are aligned from that thing where arete was tracking when shorty comes back into thread thing. idk about other unalignments cause short term memory but yea

Not directed at me, but I would go with jmw/Wisp/ Shorty or Arete .

For others that are not me, I think it would be Wisp/ Shorty-Arete / me-jmw

And thats like, assuming Aro/Pret/Caps/Eph are all villa, which is kinda a wild assumption, and can still form a team... so huh. I guess

Who is ur most likely wolf in Aro/Pret/Caps/Mera?

[supershorty]

The other tool I learned was analyzing the people in POE and using interaction analysis to determine who is least likely to be mafia. I made that wall on Axis on day 2 and also kept bringing it up on day 3 how I felt that in addition to his solving and "no self-pres," that because of his large dissacoiatives with the others in POE, I didn't feel too good about Axis being mafia. I know I voted on him but I went with my town at the end of the day :/ and I was on Caps before that.

I am thinking in now doing something similar tbh, but like at the same time I am questioning like ¿Could be there now some kind of bussing or trying to hard distance? Cuz rn we need to Lynch a Wolf, so maybe using that to catch the more likely is a good tool. But if we fall for a wrong unpaired read and arrive at a wrong conclussion is like, very bad for us lol. So thats why Im sticking with my gut on my jmw sus and stuff, but still trying to analyze possible unpaired reads on them. (Wavering on the Caps unpairing, cold feet on the Eph one. Most sure unpairing would say is with Pret, which doesnt help a lot lol)

right, that is why I am sort of taking everything with a grain of salt, but in day 1 and day 2, there is a lot to figure out with interactions, way people address each other, and the votes on one another. Still, there is enough to be found through ISO dive ins and I saw u wanted to talk some aro-logic. So I am here to discuss with u if u have any questions!

Also @Arete, I saw ur question about thoughts and I agree with u that Caps/Eph could very well be both mafia as well. I am just in the thought rn that Eph might be more mafia than Caps if that makes sense.

Also @Santygrass, @supershorty, @ThePretender, I would like ur thoughts on among Caps/Eph/Jmwjmw where you guys feel has the best chance of hitting mafia? Additionally, lmk what ur thoughts are on the input that I have provided!

I'm up to p7 of Ephe's ISO and right now, I think that's the best odds of those 3, but I'd like to see how they answer some of my questions, and I'm not going to vote there tonight because I'm not really interested in putting someone 2 votes from hammer before hearing their perspective.

[Santygrass]

I still think Wisp is still in PoE. But I am more sus of jmw mostly. And I think aro should be like instamurdered id jmw flips red. And even if jmw is green I still think its a slot that needs discussion tbh

Do you think I could be partnered with JMW?

I was actually thinking about this and in the world where Jmwjmw is mafia, it does seem odd that towards the end of the day that when you were on Jmwjmw, you switched to Cobalt. Now the thought here is, at the time you started to get convinced from Fext's and my case of the whole Jmwjmw situation, this was around the time the whole thread started to feel like voting Cobalt. So in my mind, if you are partners with Jmwjmw, I feel like you would just keep ur vote on Jmwjmw and keep pushing him to A look good when Cobalt flips V and B maintain a distance with a potential partner if Jmwjmw is mafia. So I know it seems a bit counterintuitive from other thoughts with the idea of mafia voting out the town, but in this situation, it did seem interesting that you were willing to hop on Cobalt after thread consensus started to feel that way and I feel like as mafia, you would likely lay even lower and keep ur vote on Jmwjmw to keep a good look, rather than just switching off Jmwjmw to Cobalt towards EoD. A contrast to g4 where you kept pushing on ur scum partner and were confident about it. So this was actually one of the townie things I had about you when I was rereading over night and as well as a thought as to why it would seem odd if you are partners with Jmwjmw in that situation, but nothing major to say def no.

I know I went on a bit of a side tangent but that was one of the thoughts I had and mentioned why I felt like ur handling of it felt towny on the surface level of it.

@Santygrass, this was a post I had on Caps yesterday for one of the townie points I thought he had, but I would like to hear ur thoughts too. This also relates to Caps/Jmwjmw as well. So lmk!

Also, I am going out to KBBQ tn, so I won't be able to post much but will be listening in! Is there anything else you'd like to discuss @Santygrass?

Also @jmwjmw27, did u have any questions about the reasons about why I felt the way I did about you? I also echoe'd what Plop and Fext were saying about u in addition to some of ur progression with Cobalt and how u dealt with Axis. I am still curious tho why Caps is ur top town? Like compared to everyone else in the thread, why do u have Caps as the highest town?

Also, lmk ur thoughts on mine and Santy's discussion since I know u said u were gonna read over that.

Rereading into it, I think its not a bad take tbh. If thread consensus moved away from jmw then keeping there is not as risky? But at the same time Caps moving away is one of the things that kindof left Cobalt with no cw I feel like, so its not that sure of a read but its a good point I feel. Hmmm
@Arete @supershorty

And also, I think that last post with your logic helped me clarify a lot of things and think we are good for now! Would like to move on the other slots and hopefully align our views and catch a Woof

[ThePretender]

And just as I was thinking the thread was quiet, Santy ninja's me lmao.

That's another one to cross off the "jmw partners" list

If someone has us as partners, I will just murder them lol.

Also, you can read those post and give thoughts? I would like your thoughts on aro too. Like to me a world where you are V and W!aro could be trying to set up your lynch for later isnt impossible, but you seem to be townreading him, so yeah ur input would be apprecciated

OMG IS THE TEAM SANTY/JMW?!?!?!?!

[supershorty]

And just as I was thinking the thread was quiet, Santy ninja's me lmao.

That's another one to cross off the "jmw partners" list

If someone has us as partners, I will just murder them lol.

Also, you can read those post and give thoughts? I would like your thoughts on aro too. Like to me a world where you are V and W!aro could be trying to set up your lynch for later isnt impossible, but you seem to be townreading him, so yeah ur input would be apprecciated

OMG IS THE TEAM SANTY/JMW?!?!?!?!

I think you need some more punctuation here for extra *~*drama*~*

[ThePretender]

And just as I was thinking the thread was quiet, Santy ninja's me lmao.

That's another one to cross off the "jmw partners" list

If someone has us as partners, I will just murder them lol.

Also, you can read those post and give thoughts? I would like your thoughts on aro too. Like to me a world where you are V and W!aro could be trying to set up your lynch for later isnt impossible, but you seem to be townreading him, so yeah ur input would be apprecciated

OMG IS THE TEAM SANTY/JMW?!?!?!?!

I think you need some more punctuation here for extra *~*drama*~*

OMG IS THE TEAM SANTY/JMW!@*#$%(@#$(^&_#)$^@#%&_@#$%@#$)*^@#)^Y

[Santygrass]

What would Anne (Neopest) do in this situation?? Please give me all your strength. Even to all our fallen comrades. Please.

Everyone who is not Caps and Eph. Is there a world where both Caps and Eph are town? Because I can't see where they are both town tbh and I'd like your guys thoughts on it please.

She'd laugh in wolf chat cause town is self destructing.

Also re 2nd point. Lets entertain a world of v!caps and v!ephe. For semantics I'll say you're a villager in this scenario
which leaves

jmw, santy, wisp, shorty, arete

huh

if you can figure out a possible combination of 3 in the above then go for it... I don't think shorty/arete are aligned from that thing where arete was tracking when shorty comes back into thread thing. idk about other unalignments cause short term memory but yea

Not directed at me, but I would go with jmw/Wisp/ Shorty or Arete .

For others that are not me, I think it would be Wisp/ Shorty-Arete / me-jmw

And thats like, assuming Aro/Pret/Caps/Eph are all villa, which is kinda a wild assumption, and can still form a team... so huh. I guess

Who is ur most likely wolf in Aro/Pret/Caps/Mera?

Starting the day I would have replied Aro, but now that read have fallen off. Probably Caps I'd say? But without having a reread on Mera is kinda w/e

Caps > Mera > Aro > Pret rn

[TheCapsFan]

catching up

I think there's one in Arete/Ephe (I'm going to be going through Ephe's ISO for a couple hours at the rate I'm going, so I'll revisit this after I finish that). Realistically, I think there has to be at least 1 in my town reads, because that makes the most sense for why I'm alive.

Of my towns, in order of concern where that's happening, I'm probably at like Wisp > aro > Santy > Pret. I don't have specific reasoning for that, other than I've been stagnant on my Wisp and Santy reads, although I like that Santy is wanting to bounce ideas back and forth today and that makes me feel better.

gth, which between arete and eph?

also I don't understand what you mean by that list there. do you mean that wisp is more likely to be scum than aro and so forth?

[supershorty]

Rereading into it, I think its not a bad take tbh. If thread consensus moved away from jmw then keeping there is not as risky? But at the same time Caps moving away is one of the things that kindof left Cobalt with no cw I feel like, so its not that sure of a read but its a good point I feel. Hmmm
@Arete @supershorty

Yeah, I agree with that take. Not as risky with thread consensus moving away, has potential payoff even if the thread had abruptly swung back to a partner!jmw (because if jmw flipped, there'd be the town cred for staying there for the bus) - it's definitely something that I could see as a reasonable argument for scum partners to have done, and it's not what Caps did there.

[supershorty]

gth, which between arete and eph?

also I don't understand what you mean by that list there. do you mean that wisp is more likely to be scum than aro and so forth?

GTH Eph at this point
Yeah I mean if I'm misreading someone in my towns/town leans, I'm most concerned that it's Wisp, next most concerned aro, etc.

[ThePretender]

stop asking for my thoughts when there's a goddamn monolith of a wall i have to read >.> P#7020

Anyways it just feels like your difference check existed for convienience sake for world building reasons. And less of, they're not w/w and I definately see there being a wolf in the pair... But uhh lets go with the world build that you had which today is now

caps/arete/eph/jmw/santy.

in eph/jmw/santy, we can't have eph/jmw (idk why but sure). What if the team was smth like

wisp/eph/santy

then caps/arete difference check doesn't hold up, unless you think santy/wisp are unpaired also

this is all just hypotheticals. BUT. what if it's arete/caps w/w :O

[Santygrass]

If someone has us as partners, I will just murder them lol.

Also, you can read those post and give thoughts? I would like your thoughts on aro too. Like to me a world where you are V and W!aro could be trying to set up your lynch for later isnt impossible, but you seem to be townreading him, so yeah ur input would be apprecciated

OMG IS THE TEAM SANTY/JMW?!?!?!?!

I think you need some more punctuation here for extra *~*drama*~*

OMG IS THE TEAM SANTY/JMW!@*#$%(@#$(^&_#)$^@#%&_@#$%@#$)*^@#)^Y

Forgive me lord, since I am about to commit murder

ThePretender

[ThePretender]

Small random thought from me is that Santy is still hellbent on wanting jmw out.

Which feels, weird to push as wolf here? Since thread has kinda moved jmw from not being yeeted since middle of d3 till now.

Idk

[ThePretender]

OMG IS THE TEAM SANTY/JMW?!?!?!?!

I think you need some more punctuation here for extra *~*drama*~*

OMG IS THE TEAM SANTY/JMW!@*#$%(@#$(^&_#)$^@#%&_@#$%@#$)*^@#)^Y

Forgive me lord, since I am about to commit murder

ThePretender

The lord does not forgive you

[Mafia Host]

Season 9, Semifinal 1: Trouble on Sornieth [Mafia Championship] Day 4 Votecount

Votes	Target	Voters (Posts in Phase)
2	TheCapsFan	Arete (22), Wisp (62)
2	Ephemera	jmwjmw27 (37), arogame123 (102)
1	jmwjmw27	Santygrass (87)
4	Not voting	TheCapsFan (36), supershorty (68), ThePretender (72), Ephemera (25)

View Vote History

End day at majority is enabled. With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to reach majority.

Day 4 ends at 11:00 PM EDT on Monday, August 8th, 2022. There are 1660014060000 remaining.

[ThePretender]

SBPCBWE

arogame123 (102)
Santygrass (87)
ThePretender (72)
supershorty (68)
Wisp (62)
jmwjmw27 (37)

TheCapsFan (36)
Ephemera (25)
Arete (22)

I think we have the team

[Santygrass]

Cmon Caps 2 post more and we do a recount

[supershorty]

I don't know how much I'll be around during the day tomorrow because I no longer have a technician at work, so it's a one-woman show now, but I should for sure be around from ~4 hours to close onward. I'll keep reading through Ephe's ISO when I get chances.

gn