Mount Everest

[Schweppes]

honestly this is just reminding me why i havent posted since last week

[lilypetal]

oh wait there are still 3 wolves

we are so $%#!ed

[Ominoire]

At least my theory invokes Fairy's progression on me. Other people who could fit in this group would be aaa and Haze. I can't see how you can compare yours against the game from beginning to end. No offense, though. This game hasn't been worth people's time in general.

[Schweppes]

oh wait there are still 3 wolves

we are so $%#!ed

yeaaaaaa
exactly

[Ominoire]

You know, maybe the real winners are the people who died before us. I should have just pulled a Kuti and sabotaged my entire mafia career just to die in one tabletop game.

[Ominoire]

Winning in real life versus winning a game of mafia. I really don't know where my priorities should be.

[OUTM]

I agree with Schweppes on the premise that if aaa and lily are both town then im objectively worst looking player in the game. But I don't see how how lily would think "oh, true, since im town and i think outm is town = aaa wolf" from that

eugh

why not

because the point youre drawing is that outm cant be that bad but i could easily be that bad

[lilypetal]

I agree with Schweppes on the premise that if aaa and lily are both town then im objectively worst looking player in the game. But I don't see how how lily would think "oh, true, since im town and i think outm is town = aaa wolf" from that

eugh

why not

because the point youre drawing is that outm cant be that bad but i could easily be that bad

what

[Ominoire]

Let's be honest here. OUTM is only suspicious because he's alive and could be deepwolfing. Could be deepwolfing. I doubt anyone here can justify their points against OUTM outside of that gutread.

[OUTM]

I agree with Schweppes on the premise that if aaa and lily are both town then im objectively worst looking player in the game. But I don't see how how lily would think "oh, true, since im town and i think outm is town = aaa wolf" from that

eugh

why not

because the point youre drawing is that outm cant be that bad but i could easily be that bad

what

ok

what point did you draw from it then

because the point im seeing is "aaa/outm is w/v and i think outm is v"

if you say "oh well no not for 100% sure you're w/v" then whats the conclusion in the first place

[OUTM]

i find that progression to be wolfy as $%#! since you saw 3 names that included you and schweppes said "surely theres a wolf in here" and ur like "oh yeah sure" and voted aaa when thats entirely arbitrary

[Schweppes]

am i going crazy rn because wtf

[Schweppes]

Are you not aware that orange has freqhly squeezed entirely totally arbitrary and random lists of names

[Schweppes]

no so what lily is supposed to do is consider that you're a wolf got it.

[OUTM]

Are you not aware that orange has freqhly squeezed entirely totally arbitrary and random lists of names

news flash; there are 3 wolves in this list:

aaa
Fairy
Haze with a Z
lilypetal
Ominoire
orangeandblack5
OUTM
Schweppes
Wesmaster160

[OUTM]

no so what lily is supposed to do is consider that you're a wolf got it.

no

im saying she should consider the fact that its entirely arbitrary, and im asking her why she's drawing a conclusion from it to vote aaa over wes

[Ominoire]

Are you not aware that orange has freqhly squeezed entirely totally arbitrary and random lists of names

This is why I don't find this tactic helpful. Even early in, I think it helps wolves create smokescreen for themselves. The problem isn't that we don't have a strategy, the problem is that we don't have enough WIM for this game.

[lilypetal]

why not

because the point youre drawing is that outm cant be that bad but i could easily be that bad

what

ok

what point did you draw from it then

because the point im seeing is "aaa/outm is w/v and i think outm is v"

if you say "oh well no not for 100% sure you're w/v" then whats the conclusion in the first place

aaa is the bastard who tunneled me all game for no reason

ur the bastard who tunnels me every game for no reason

ur town here probably

me kill aaa

[OUTM]

because the point youre drawing is that outm cant be that bad but i could easily be that bad

what

ok

what point did you draw from it then

because the point im seeing is "aaa/outm is w/v and i think outm is v"

if you say "oh well no not for 100% sure you're w/v" then whats the conclusion in the first place

aaa is the bastard who tunneled me all game for no reason

ur the bastard who tunnels me every game for no reason

ur town here probably

me kill aaa

but

thats not an answer

[OUTM]

grrrrrr

[Ominoire]

In case it hasn't set in, it's to be expected of Lilypetal to announce a fos on one or two people because of iffiness. My understanding of a town!Lilypetal is that she's winging everything with her gut and all her explanations, when questioned, sound like a word salad. This is because she didn't bother to read another level deeper into her reads, so she is actually coming up with her explanations on the spot.

[lilypetal]

what

ok

what point did you draw from it then

because the point im seeing is "aaa/outm is w/v and i think outm is v"

if you say "oh well no not for 100% sure you're w/v" then whats the conclusion in the first place

aaa is the bastard who tunneled me all game for no reason

ur the bastard who tunnels me every game for no reason

ur town here probably

me kill aaa

but

thats not an answer

who cares!

[lilypetal]

In case it hasn't set in, it's to be expected of Lilypetal to announce a fos on one or two people because of iffiness. My understanding of a town!Lilypetal is that she's winging everything with her gut and all her explanations, when questioned, sound like a word salad. This is because she didn't bother to read another level deeper into her reads, so she is actually coming up with her explanations on the spot.

yeah u get it

[Ominoire]

Not really

[OUTM]

note that my main problem with lily this game was that it looked to me like she believed those gutreads more than she realistically shouldve

[lilypetal]

note that my main problem with lily this game was that it looked to me like she believed those gutreads more than she realistically shouldve

being overly confident is the main trait of my town play

[orangeandblack5]

Haze still feels the least connected to thread in a wolfy way, as well.

Their pushes feel the most manufactured out of anyone.

@Haze with a Z who do you think is the most likely wolf here, and if it isn't aaa, why aren't you voting them?

funnily enough

I'm not sure I actually agree with that lol

citation please

[orangeandblack5]

Are you not aware that orange has freqhly squeezed entirely totally arbitrary and random lists of names

what does this even mean lol

[Schweppes]

Are you not aware that orange has freqhly squeezed entirely totally arbitrary and random lists of names

what does this even mean lol

it does not matter and you really should know what it meant but whatever

[OUTM]

##Vote OUTM

turbo logic. think wes is better bet still but also dont think that will happen. think llily would be my backup to these two and I think that is my group of people id be fine with today. I do wanna give lily some credit though cause it seemed to me like they actually read me. old sus is holding me back now.

literally the argument that I have seen for vandy is them not saying much and I really blame no one for not saying much when 30 posts seems like a lot in this game.

although if this suddenly gains traction, I may just vote vandy to vote them cause if this suddenly gains traction, im doubting it is good traction.

Up to 8700.

##Unvote OUTM

I feel uncomfortable with this again i think.

Honestly post 8700 tells me why the others are voting them and with orange feeling meh and the reasons being idk and omgus and it isn’t like I feel super confident on them either. Other’s doubt overcomes mine I think.

Guess who’s finally read all of the new posts!

I can see a vandy/outm team. It feels like outm is waffling about with this hammer. Doesn’t seem to match with their confidence level tbh.

##Vote Vandyfan402

I want wes, they aren’t gonna go over. I honestly don’t think anyone else will. So I don’t care, I’m just gonna vote here.

##Vote Wesmaster160

Haze still feels the least connected to thread in a wolfy way, as well.

Their pushes feel the most manufactured out of anyone.

@Haze with a Z who do you think is the most likely wolf here, and if it isn't aaa, why aren't you voting them?

I think it is wes but I dont want a hammer to happen because people got mad at me last time for hammering and so I am preventing a hammer from happening in the first place.

Although now lily moved off so I feel like I can go back on without there being a hammer.

##Vote Wesmaster160

the logic for voting me, vandy, wes all feel very artificial and like they just suddenly gained feelings to make a vote instead of coming to conclusions naturally

their uncaring on whether wes/aaa goes over makes me tilt my head in the case where both are town (But i sincerely doubt that)

[Wesmaster160]

Alright, was busy last week, not as busy now. So sitting down to look into the thread...

Yeah, I have no WIM really left for this game.

So we're gonna go with this:

1) Schweppes is town. They've had decent post counts every day, I've agreed with a fair bit of their takes, and they've had genuineness in their post with annoyance, etc.

2) Haze is town. OUTM said they found them disconnected in a wolfy way, but I find their disconnectedness towny. They keep wanting to vote me even though I've been the biggest proponent of them being town, especially right now with more scrutiny coming to their slot. They just kept repeating their "I expected more from Orange" thing even when it didn't look great. I think Haze is just doing their thing without agenda or caring about appearances.

3) Fairy is town. I know I just listed them in my last wolf team guess, but $%#! it, it never felt right. 2 things here. 1: Vibes. Don't think I've gotten a single wolfy vibe when reading their posts. 2: The bolded read here

Right now my town are

Ominoire
OUTM
Schweppes

which tbh isn't much, but I at least feel pretty decent about them.

OUTM I think is the most obvious, he's just been digging into stuff pretty much since the game started, and I have no real problems with any of it.

Schweppes I like because I can see where he's getting at with a lot of what he posts. Not necessarily that what he's posting in thread is exactly that good, but the things that he cares about and responds to and such makes me feel like I can see what's going on behind the scenes for him, which is how I've usually been able to read him as town the best. Compared to what I remember of him being a wolf, where he doesn't really do much and a lot of it is more flat. Could be outdated, but I feel fine about it regardless. I think posts like p#468 are also just neat for the attention he's paying to things

Ominoire I also like the way he gets into things but it's lighter. When I first read p#458 from him and after I thought it was him calling out OUTM for copying him and trying to pocket him in that way, but I feel like I just misinterpreted his intentions and he basically said none of it actually mattered with p#476 is how it seemed lol. His earlier stuff with Fontana was good though and, idk how to explain, but it feels like he's being excessively truthful with his approach and thoughts and I believe him and that it comes from town, in general.

There's various other names I'm fine with but nothing I care about that much. I was thinking about Wes a little bit and how he's not really done anything since the start of the game iirc, but I like his reads list because I agree with outm/schweppes, and mystery player/aaa are getting there, but mostly also that I think having aaa in his highest town is a good angle to take. Their posts are a bit weird I feel like, and they've not done much, so it's a player that stands out to me when Wes town reads them so much, but I feel a lot of genuine-ness from aaa's posts and their push on Lily which I think Wes does too in a good way

##Vote SuperMonkeyFace

For only caring to talk about what to me is a pretty irrelevant part of the game, the bowser suggestion. And, btw, I'm not really interested in trying to track votes informally. I don't think it's all that worth it rather than just doing things normally. Don't think we stand to gain much from adding so much more effort into things, normal voting works fine

SuperMonkeyFace

That's the towniest read in the whole game. Don't care it was pretty early d1. That's something a town thinks/writes. Or more precisely I don't think that's a read a wolf could fake.

So

That leaves OUTM/Lily/aaa/Ominoire/Orange

aaa/lily have been positioned as v/w pretty strongly this game. Both by their attitudes towards each other as well as framing from other players. They could both be wolves, but I think that's a pretty low possibility. They could theoretically be town, meaning the exact team would be OUTM/Ominoire/Orange. Buttttttt...

I'm assumıng OB can handle themselves, but ?

Schweppes, you went through your depression phase. I don't mean to be rude, but I think you and I both know that people can't always handle themselves.

I don't mean to be rude, but you need to seriously rethink your approach to talking with other people if you don't want to keep coming off as an insensitive prick.

My apologies if you're best friends and this is some long-time inside joke I'm getting inadvertently dragged into with no context, but under the assumption that is not the case, you should take a few minutes to consider how your statements are likely to come off to others before pressing "post".

Would also help with your postcount.

Out of all the non w/w pairings I did this game, this was probably the strongest (there may have been stronger ones with Schweppes, but he's town who cares). That's not something you write to your wolf partner in thread. It's too antagonistic, it's without explanation of the the context of the statement which could have been explained in wolf chat, and it would just be a super weird post to go and think "Imma write this at my wolf partner".

So, that leaves us with 1 in lily/aaa, 1 in orange/ominoire, and 1 in OUTM

##Vote OUTM

I said it before and got cold feet from it, but OUTM should have been NK'ed if they were town. It just would have happened.

Out of Orange and Ominoire, it's mostly a toss up for me. And out of lily/aaa I'm leaning more lily still, throwing out the lily/OUTM non w/w pairing completely.

I'm locking myself in at 95% confidence in this solve. So any arguments to sway me from this will have to be good enough to make me agree its the 5% alternative. So unless that happens, I'm locked in on OUTM for the day.

[Wesmaster160]

Let's be honest here. OUTM is only suspicious because he's alive and could be deepwolfing. Could be deepwolfing. I doubt anyone here can justify their points against OUTM outside of that gutread.

Also I 100% agree with this. I have no case on why OUTM is wolf besides being still alive. If I spent hours looking over the game I could maybe conf-bias a case together, but I don't have the WIM to do so, and like I said would probably be conf-biased to hell.

[OUTM]

the literal main case against that is whataboutism which is yuck but

that case hinges both on you being town (which at least you have in your pov, if you are town) and your townreads being entirely correct (and since i think there is much more than likely a wolf between you/haze, lol)

and i disagree that orange/ominoire can be written off as non-w/w completely even if i did say it earlier, orange seems like a very competent player (at least when they're trying...) so my lily stock is plummeting by extension

honestly wes to me this seems more like a comfy spot for a wolf to slide into. i know its still pushing me a (at least previously) established towncore member, but your case is believable enough to not get you scrutinized while still not being sheep-able for anyone to the point where you can just kinda comfortably park on me. but since its believable enough its nai

[OUTM]

Let's be honest here. OUTM is only suspicious because he's alive and could be deepwolfing. Could be deepwolfing. I doubt anyone here can justify their points against OUTM outside of that gutread.

Also I 100% agree with this. I have no case on why OUTM is wolf besides being still alive. If I spent hours looking over the game I could maybe conf-bias a case together, but I don't have the WIM to do so, and like I said would probably be conf-biased to hell.

Go for it tbh

[Wesmaster160]

Let's be honest here. OUTM is only suspicious because he's alive and could be deepwolfing. Could be deepwolfing. I doubt anyone here can justify their points against OUTM outside of that gutread.

Also I 100% agree with this. I have no case on why OUTM is wolf besides being still alive. If I spent hours looking over the game I could maybe conf-bias a case together, but I don't have the WIM to do so, and like I said would probably be conf-biased to hell.

Go for it tbh

The express point is I don't want to.

[Wesmaster160]

Is express point a phrase? Or is that something I've been saying wrong for a while now. Cause looking at it, it seems wrong.

[Wesmaster160]

the literal main case against that is whataboutism which is yuck but

that case hinges both on you being town (which at least you have in your pov, if you are town) and your townreads being entirely correct (and since i think there is much more than likely a wolf between you/haze, lol)

and i disagree that orange/ominoire can be written off as non-w/w completely even if i did say it earlier, orange seems like a very competent player (at least when they're trying...) so my lily stock is plummeting by extension

honestly wes to me this seems more like a comfy spot for a wolf to slide into. i know its still pushing me a (at least previously) established towncore member, but your case is believable enough to not get you scrutinized while still not being sheep-able for anyone to the point where you can just kinda comfortably park on me. but since its believable enough its nai

Also what is this post for? Are you just telling me "lol you're wolf"? Or expressing your disagreement with my solve to the whole thread, and just having it as a post talking directly to me?

[Wesmaster160]

the literal main case against that is whataboutism which is yuck but

that case hinges both on you being town (which at least you have in your pov, if you are town) and your townreads being entirely correct (and since i think there is much more than likely a wolf between you/haze, lol)

and i disagree that orange/ominoire can be written off as non-w/w completely even if i did say it earlier, orange seems like a very competent player (at least when they're trying...) so my lily stock is plummeting by extension

honestly wes to me this seems more like a comfy spot for a wolf to slide into. i know its still pushing me a (at least previously) established towncore member, but your case is believable enough to not get you scrutinized while still not being sheep-able for anyone to the point where you can just kinda comfortably park on me. but since its believable enough its nai

Also what is this post for? Are you just telling me "lol you're wolf"? Or expressing your disagreement with my solve to the whole thread, and just having it as a post talking directly to me?

Eh, this is a bit of an overreaction, you're response was fine-ish here.

[Wesmaster160]

It is still very pointed of just calling it a wolfy position so shutting down any discussion between us. Which, I did just lock you in as my vote for today, so ya know, fair.

[lilypetal]

i kinda think we should kill aaa and then if they flip town yall should snapvote me in lylo to complete the prophecy

[orangeandblack5]

sell me on the idea that OUTM was a better kill than

1. Bowser
2. Fontana
3. Brad
4. Axel

because I have a hard time seeing most of those

[orangeandblack5]

i kinda think we should kill aaa and then if they flip town yall should snapvote me in lylo to complete the prophecy

fwiw I'm almost okay with that idea lol

[Wesmaster160]

sell me on the idea that OUTM was a better kill than

1. Bowser
2. Fontana
3. Brad
4. Axel

because I have a hard time seeing most of those

He was more generally town read than everyone after Bowser. So don't know what's hard for you to see there.

[OUTM]

i also dont think id be aligned with either ominoire / orange from my treatment of their slots

if im partnered with ominoire why do i attack ominoire on d4 completely uninitiated and then drop it

if im partnered with orange...well this one i guess looks more realistic but i still think my progression on thinking theyre lockwolf to thinking theyre fine came too naturally from me for it to be partnered. i think if i was trying to look towny id try to confbias it a little bit

[OUTM]

@Wesmaster160 what's your orange read?

[Wesmaster160]

@Wesmaster160 what's your orange read?

Don't know. Either them or Omi is likely a wolf. Like I've already said sort of a toss up between the two.

When they actually get posting stuff and not talking about infinite time phases it comes off alright tone wise. But like for instance today I don't think any of the stuff they've pushed about people who have voted the towns wagons has really helped solve the game at all. So eh.

[Ominoire]

honestly wes to me this seems more like a comfy spot for a wolf to slide into. i know its still pushing me a (at least previously) established towncore member, but your case is believable enough to not get you scrutinized while still not being sheep-able for anyone to the point where you can just kinda comfortably park on me. but since its believable enough its nai

Not a fan of you just pivoting the same wolf points I expect out of a wolf!Wes by themselves. It would have been better if you used several others posts along with this one.

[Ominoire]

sell me on the idea that OUTM was a better kill than

1. Bowser
2. Fontana
3. Brad
4. Axel

because I have a hard time seeing most of those

OUTM's suspicion for being a deepwolf was brought maybe as early when I suggested both him and I had deepwolf equity after Fontana's death. Mystery Player's death was surprising, because Mystery Player was under scrutiny not long before. However, it's understandable that Mystery Player was the kill because he came out looking town after being questioned. Him being Bradland/Bluekang also added to his town equity. Bluekang is unfortunately easy to find town in many of his games.

Axelrod was a better kill than OUTM, not just because he hardly had a fos against him, but because OUTM's wagon was a front issue. Although Axelrod didn't utilize his vote to pressure anyone, he was a threat just by existing.

[Ominoire]

Personally I don't think we should be solving OUTM's slot with the "Why is he still alive?" argument. We could also apply the same argument to Schweppes - and myself, to a lesser extent. We wouldn't get anywhere until we yeeted one of us.

[Ominoire]

Also, that exchange between Orange and myself that Wes found was one of the reasons I was unwilling to vote Orange on D1 and even soft-defend them for. I'd forgotten all about that.