Originally Posted by jess
SPF LEGACY POSY:
so, i'm probably not going to be here for the EOD (or, will be on my phone in the best case scenario). i expect that i'm probably going to die today
if i do die, you should strongly take everything that i say in this post into consideration. i don't believe that i have solved the game, but i do believe the gamestate is a bit rotten, and i believe my position in the game allows me to see that more easily than others
so, let's start with the clears.
prince J is not mafia, for many reasons, but the most pertinent here being that i do not believe he would bus arogame and attempt to start a CW on him with the timing that he did
0lx is also not mafia, for similar reasons to arogame
im pretty sure that lilypetal is not mafia, because esooa's EOD vote on me makes no sense from a scum perspective, and because lily is posting well
up next, we have zone and psyx. i'm leaning on this pairing being clear as well, but if one of them is mafia, it's probably psyx. even so, zone has consistently provided in-depth thoughtful solving, and done stuff that i dont believe a wolf would be incentivized to do (like his "test" on lemonfairy at the EOD1)
as for psyx, my townread on her is mostly just: "her solving feels real to me, and i believe her conviction", so you can take it with a grain of salt. i'm just not seeing the wolfiness in her right now
not impossible for my reads to be quite off in this game, but i would like to say that there is one wolf in this pool maximum, and it should be easy enough to sniff them out with time.
so, if i die today, your towncore tomorrow is prince J, 0lx, lilypetal, zone, and psyx. i am demanding that the 5 of you work together as much as possible to build consensus and hold players accountable for being wolfy
some other names that i lean town on even though i dont have them in my Core are:
generico - don't see the strategic intent with the way he voted then panic unvoted arogame at the EOD, think his solving/paranoia has felt fairly genuine. i wouldn't confidently clear him but i'm not seeing any major red flags either
cosplay - i thought he had a very towny d1 but his presence has been more muted since then - tbh i dont have a lot of confidence on this but i just feel like he has had a few progressions today that strike me as quite organic and i don't see any obvious red flags from him either
the reads that i'm even more murky on but probably wouldn't prioritize voting right now are:
zenon: idk. i've been very, very back and forth on her. i just don't really feel like she's mafia in my gut even if i can't rationalize this read particularly well. i would call her upper POE but not immediate priority. seems solvable with other flips too
lemonfairy: yeah i mean, i'm not gonna bet my entire life on lemonfairy being town, but i do feel that the interactions between her and arogame do not look very aligned, and i don't feel like lemonfairy has been very wolfy in general apart from just her not playing the game in general
i'm not confident on my lemon TR being right but i am often p good at figuring out when players being widely pushed are villagers and i have the same general sense about lemon. make of that what you will
so, that leaves us with an immediate POE of twice shrunk, cinderella, delta, good question, fable. now we're cooking.
if i die today, i would say that you should bully the everliving $%#! out of twice shrunk, and force him to put more effort into solving the game than he has in any game before.
if he towntells very strongly (which he is capable of doing) then don't kill him
if he doesn't, then murder him with reckless abandon
at any rate, a big part of the reason why the gamestate is bad is specifically because of twice shrunk. his posts (about me specifically) have been some of the worst posts i've seen in my entire mafia career, especially if he is town. his reasoning is so bad that it seems to be explicitly written in bad faith
even so, there are inklings of solving in twice shrunk's posts (like the observation he made about GQ that i actually agreed with) and other small things that make me not really sold on him being mafia
it honestly wouldn't shock me if twice is town. i still think he should probably die tomorrow after i flip and then you can blame him for singlehandedly ruining the game lol
gonna rush these last few names bcuz i gotta leave soon:
as for good question, it feels kind of bad to put him in this list when he has defended me so vigorously, but i just don't really buy his confidence, don't really buy his reaction to lily's pressure (because it was identical to his reaction to pressure in the game he was a wolf with alexa, especially the phrasing of: "this is what i do"), and i just don't find him very towny. i will say that i haven't read his posts very closely today, which is partly on me, but shrug
as for fable, the timing of his vote on arogame and his EOD play in general looks a bit like a bus vote. his solving has largely felt kind of fake to me, and i just dont find him towny
as for cinderella, he has been treading water for the last 2 dayphases, the way he agreed with the consensus of me/lemon being wolves today was quite wolfy, and i don't buy that he has a single shred of organic or believable solving in his ISO. he also has an inconsistent mindset with the way he reacted to cosplay pushing him vs how he reacted to arogame, and i just think he has a high chance of being a mafia struggling to make good content
as for delta, quite possible that some of my issues with him are playstyle conflict rather than alignment conflict, but his POE seems really lazy and like he is pushing the most level 0 worldview possible without putting much thought into it, he hasnt been that towny today in general, and im just lacking in any real reasons to TR him
i have some like ...fairly harsh words about this game in general, but i also believe that there are people here who really are putting their hearts into solving, and i believe that town has the ability to make a comeback and easily win the game after i flip. so, keep trying, and don't get motivated, and always question yourself